TEN BETS FOR TFF #50
Today's the day...the countdown to the lineup announcement for the 50th Telluride Film Festival on this blog begins in earnest today with 2023's first edition of MTFB's "Ten Bets".
Regular readers will know that this is my first "real" stab at predicting what will be playing at Telluride over the Labor Day weekend. I'll subsequently adjust and expand the list as the summer goes on. Serious indicators occur with announcements about what will be screening at the Toronto and Venice fests and, to a lesser degree Venice's scheduling and the New York Film Fest lineup.
The final Ten Bets for 2023 will be the Monday post on August 28th.
Again, as dedicated readers of this space are aware, MTFB on average lands between 5-6 films on this initial list that end up in the lineup when it is revealed. To wit, last year this was the list of films that comprised the first Ten Bets for TFF #49. Films that actually screened at TFF are in Bold.
1) Bardo/Inarritu
2) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
3) The Son/Zeller
4) Close/Dhont
5) Women Talking/Polley
6) Aftersun/Wells
7) Showing Up/Reichardt
8) White Noise/Baumbach
9) Broker/Kore-eda
10) She Said/M. Schrader
6/10
Here was the 2021 first Ten Bets:
1) The Power of the Dog/Campion
2) Muhammad Ali/Burns, Burns and McMahon
3) The Card Counter/Schrader
4) Nightmare Alley/Del Toro
5) The Velvet Underground/Haynes
6) Bergman Island/Hansen-Love
7) Cow/Arnold
8) A Hero/Farhadi
9) Blonde/Dominik
10) The Story of Looking/Cousins
8/10
Going back to the advent of my Ten Bets approach, here was the track record from 2011-2019:
2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10
2019: 4/10
So, with all of that as prelude, here is MTFB's first Ten Bets for films to play at The SHOW in 2023:
1) The Holdovers/Payne
2) May December/Haynes
3) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi
4) Monster/Kore-eda
5) Strangers/Haigh
6) El Conde/Larrain
7) Poor Things/Lanthimos
8) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet
9) The American Buffalo/Burns
10) The End/Oppenheimer
Other possibilities: Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Teachers' Lounge/Catak, The Zone of Inerest/Glazer, Saltburn/Fennell, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe and Shirley/Ridley.
There you go. Now let's see how this all unfolds over the next ten weeks.
NEGLIA'S LIST
Matt Neglia, who runs Next Best Picture, posted a terrific piece this week about what film fests had hosted the World Premiere's of Best Picture Oscar nominees. Neglia focused on the nominees since AMPAS adopted the expanded Best Picture field in 2009.
Here's his list for TFF (with best Picture winners in Bold.):
Telluride Film Festival
2022: Women Talking
2021: Belfast & King Richard
2020: None
2019: Ford v Ferrari
2018: None
2017: Darkest Hour, Lady Bird
2016: Moonlight
2015: Room
2014: The Imitation Game
2013: 12 Years A Slave
2012: Argo
2011: The Descendants
2010: 127 Hours, The King’s Speech
2009: Up In The Air
Neglia also includes analysis for Sundance, Cannes, Berlin, SXSW, Venice, Toronto, New York and AFI.
His compilation shows the following statistics for the number of Best Picture World Premieres at these fests:
Venice Film Festival: 21
Sundance Film Festival: 15
Telluride Film Festival: 15
Cannes Film Festival: 14
Toronto Film Festival: 12
New York Film Festival: 8
AFI Fest: 3
Berlin Film Festival: 1
SXSW: 1
So, since 2009 TFF has had the second most World Premieres of Best Picture nominees trailing only Venice and tied with Sundance. However, what Matt doesn't look is the North American Premieres that happen at Telluride (and Toronto and New York for that matter). If you factor those in, then Telluride's place in the fest firmament re: Oscar BP nominations is more pronounced.
Here's the rundown for each year where TFF screened the North American premiere (usually) of films that were Oscar nominated for Best Picture after having their World Premiere at and earlier fest:
2022: TAR (Venice)
2021: The Power of the Dog (Venice)
2020: Nomadland (Venice), The Father (Sundance)
2019: Parasite (Cannes), Marriage Story (Venice)
2018: The Favourite (Venice), Roma (Venice)
2017: The Shape of Water (Venice)
2016: Arrival (Venice), La La Land (Venice), Manchester by the Sea (Sundance)
2015: Spotlight (Venice)
2014: Birdman (Venice)
2013: Nebraska (Cannes), Gravity (Venice)
2012: Amour (Cannes)
2011: The Artist (Cannes)
2010: Black Swan (Venice)
2009: An Education (Sundance)
So all told, 35 films have played Telluride since 2009 and gone on to a Best Picture nomination. Neglia points out that during that same time period 35 films were Best Picture nominated without any festival debut at all.
But Toronto is a huge player. Yes, they have only World Premiered 12 films from 2009-2022 that have been BP nominated BUT...they have also screened a whopping 41 films that were not World Premieres at TIFF but did receive a Best Picture nomination.
Five each from Sundance and Cannes. 17 from Venice and 14 of the Telluride 15 World Premieres went on to Toronto. The only film not of Telluride's 15 that didn't go on to TIFF was King Richard.
Nine Best Picture Oscar winners in the 2009-22 time frame played both Telluride and Toronto. Here are those films:
2021: Nomadland
2020: Parasite
2018: The Shape of Water
2017: Moonlight
2016: Spotlight
2014: 12 Years a Slave
2013: Argo
2012: The Artist
2011: The King's Speech
There's a lot more to digest from Matt's post which is linked here.
TRAILERS FOR CHALLENGERS AND PRISCILLA
We have new trailers this week for a couple of films that are on the periphery of Telluride possibilities.
Luca Guadagnino could return to TFF this year with his story of a three person love affair. Challengers features, Zendaya, Mike Faist and Josh O'Connor in a film set in the world of professional tennis. It is being distributed by United Artists Releasing. The film's release date is set for Sept. 15th. Guadagnino's Bones and All as well as Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams were both screened at TFF #49.
Both Alex Billington at First Showing.net and Steven Prusakowski at Awards Radar are suggesting that Telluride is realistic stop for the film.
Here's the trailer from YouTube:
And also this week, the trailer for Sofia Coppola's Priscilla which tells the story of the woman who married and divorced Elvis Presley. It stars Cailee Spaeny as Priscilla with Jacob Elordi as the King.
Coppola hasn't screened a film at Telluride since 2003's Lost in Translation but with it being TFF's 50th edition and the Coppola family having strong ties to the history of Telluride, I can see her returning with this film. Priscilla does not yet have an announced release date. Distribution is being handled by A24.
Again, from YouTube:
Both Alex Billington at First Showing.net and Steven Prusakowski at Awards Radar are suggesting that Telluride is realistic stop for the film
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
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