Ten Bets #5 for TFF #50 / The Holdovers Trailer / TIFF Is a Whiff / If I Were Telluride...

TEN BETS #5 FOR TFF #50

Well, normally today's post would be full of me crowing about how prescient I have been or whining about how thick I've been because it's usually the first MTFB post after Toronto has announced a bunch of titles for their fest, complete with their revealing premiere status.  However, that did not happen (more about this below in the TIFF IS a Whiff segment).

Consequently, MTFB doesn't know much more than it did last week.  These SAG-Aftra and WAG strikes have demonstrably caused major havoc among the upcoming fall film festivals.  Included in that uproar has been some speculation that some fests might not even happen.

Ugh!

So with that table setting, here's a review of last week's Ten Bets:

1) The Holdovers/Alexander Payne

2) Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

3) Saltburn/Emerald Fennell

4) Strangers/Andrew Haigh

5) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

6) Monster/Kore-eda

7) Anatomy of a Fall/Justine Triet

8) Fallen Leaves/Aki Kaurismaki

9) The Teachers' Lounge/Ilker Catak

10) The Pot-au-Feu/Trinh Hung

And with announcements from both Toronto and Venice expected next week...here's your updated Ten Bets:

1) The Holdovers/Alexander Payne

2) Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

3) Saltburn/Emerald Fennell

4) Strangers/Andrew Haigh

5) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

6) Monster/Kore-eda

7) Anatomy of a Fall/Justine Triet

8) Fallen Leaves/Aki Kaurismaki

9) The Teachers' Lounge/Ilker Catak

10) The Pot-au-Feu/Trinh Hung

Other possibilities: The Zone of Interest/Glazer, The End/Oppenheimer, El Conde/Pablo Larrain, Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe, The American Buffalo/Burns and Shirley/Ridley.

That's right.  MTFB stands pat for this week.

THE HOLDOVERS TRAILER

Since my last post on July 17,  Focus Features has dropped a trailer for Alexander Payne's The Holdovers.  After a wobble in my thinking a couple of weeks back, The Holdovers has returned to the top of the Ten Bets as the film that I have the most confidence will play TFF #50.  Of course, I'd urge you to remember that I also had Todd Haynes' May December in that top spot for exactly one week until we found out that it was going to North American Premiere at New York's fest.

At any rate, here's The Holdovers trailer via YouTube:

TIFF IS A WHIFF

As you may have heard or surmised, the Toronto International Film Festival was to have announced some of the films that would play there yesterday.  They announced exactly one.  Atom Egoyan's Seven Veils revealed as a World Premiere.  So we can say no Seven Veils at TFF #50.

Normally yesterday's announcement would have included a substantial number of films along with their premiere status which would have provided us with a pretty clear idea about films that would or would not make The SHOW.

But the single film reveal, which TIFF did not prepare any one for, really tells us that the fall film festivals are scrambling as are studios, distributors and producers in this dual strike world.

Reportedly, we could see a more complete announcement from TIFF next week and also there are reports that Venice will go forward with their announcement scheduled on July 25.

Buckle your seat belts...

IF I WERE TELLURIDE...

And I'm not Telluride. 

The fest has made it very, very clear that I am NOT.  But if I were...I'd fill those Guest Directors spots with the biggest names in acting that would say yes and have them each program a film.

The actors are idle...except for walking the picket line. The Guest Director slots...to the best that I'm able to discern...would not violate any provisions of the strike protocols.

Imagine...Tom Cruise...who has been the face of movies for the last year and who has been a Telluride-ite...programs a Kubrick.

Leo DiCaprio...at liberty currently...comes to town and programs a Scorsese.

Meryl Streep...who has been to T-ride before...programs an Eastwood.

Consider this... six of the world's greatest living actors getting to choose one film to screen and then talking about it afterwards.  That might be worth the ticket price by itself.

PS...I volunteer to lead the Q and A for a couple of those my own self.

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Ten Bets #3 for TFF #50 / New Trailer for Killers of the Flower Moon / Fincher's The Killer and Venice? / 800,000

 TEN BETS #3 FOR TFF #50

Here's the third iteration of my "Ten Bets" for TFF #50.  As I post this morning we are just a couple of weeks away from the clarity that announcements from the Toronto International Film Festival can provide.  TIFF announces its first wave of Galas and Special Presentations along with their revealing "premiere status" on that day.  

TIFF announcement days are always exhilarating and heart breaking.  Exhilarating because it's often the first hard evidence of a film's disposition vis-a-vis Telluride and heartbreaking because inevitably films that I want to play Telluride are discovered on that day as World Premieres for TIFF and thus will not make the trip to southwest Colorado.

So that's coming on July 19th.  I'll attempt a little social media coverage on the 19th as information becomes available and then have a full on report on my regular posting day on July 20th.

All that said to get to this week's Ten Bets.

As a reminder, here are last week's Ten Bets:

1) The Holdovers/Payne

2) May December/Haynes

3) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

4) Strangers/Haigh

5) Poor Things/Lanthimos

6) Monster/Kore-eda

7) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

8) El Conde/Larrain

9) Saltburn/Fennell

10) The End/Oppenheimer

Other possibilities: The Zone of Interest/Glazer, Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Teachers' Lounge/Catak, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe, The American Buffalo/Burns, Priscilla/Coppola and Shirley/Ridley.

And here's the update, the third Ten Bets for TFF #50:

1) May December/Haynes

2) Poor Things/Lanthimos

3) Strangers/Haigh

4) The Holdovers/Payne

5) Monster/Kore-eda

6) Saltburn/Fennell

7) Nyad/ Chin and Vasarhelyi

8) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

9) El Conde/Larrain

10) The Teachers' Lounge/Catak

Other possibilities: The Zone of Interest/Glazer, Fallen Leaves/Kaurismaki, The End/Oppenheimer, The Pot-au-Feu/Hung,  Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe, The American Buffalo/Burns, Priscilla/Coppola and Shirley/Ridley.

NEW TRAILER FOR KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

Apple dropped a new trailer for my most anticipated film for 2023, Martin Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon.  The film is set for limited release on Oct. 6th and then opens wide on Oct. 20th. 

My guess, at this point is that Killers maybe plays the New York Film Festival prior to its release and bypasses both Telluride and Toronto.  I hope my assessment is way off.

As many know, I did a day of background work on the film. I can tell you that I'm not in either trailer.  Here's the new one:

 

FINCHER'S THE KILLER AND VENICE?

Michael Fassbender on the set of The Killer (via IMDb)

By and large I have discounted any possibility that David Fincher would return to Telluride this year with The Killer starring Michael Fassbender.  Up to now I have surmised that the film produced in part by Paramount and Plan B and distributed by Netflix likely wouldn't play any festival though its planned Nov. 10th release date would allow it to.

However, Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel reported on Sunday (7/2) that the door might still be open for the film to screen at Venice:

"On Friday, I was rather stunned by an Italian source telling me that Netflix is now thinking of bringing David Fincher’s “The Killer” to Venice. 

This source told me, “negotiations are underway, Barbera did see it and he wants it in competition. I’m not sure if he will be able to get it as the odds are 50/50 right now since Netflix would rather premiere it closer to the November release.”

Now, if the door is open for Venice, could it also be open for the jump to Telluride?  Fincher was the recipient of a Telluride tribute back in 2008 where Zodiac was screened in its entirety and scenes from The Curious Case of Benjamin Button were screened so he's been in the San Juans before.

Personally I'm still very skeptical that The Killer lands in Colorado and frankly I tend to buy the conventional wisdom that if The Killer plays a fest at all it will probably be New York.

But I'd like to be wrong.

800,000

Just passed another milestone in the history of MTFB last night as total views for the blog went beyond the 800,000 mark.  That means that each post of the 2,135 I have published since August 8th, 2008 has averaged 347.7 views.

Thanks for reading!

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Ten Bets #2 for TFF #50 / Checking the Distributors: Amazon Studios / Toronto Announces First Film / Speaking of WOR / A Couple of Trailers for TFF #49 Documentaries

TEN BETS #2 FOR TFF #50

A week ago I debuted the first Ten Bets for the 2023 edition of the Telluride Film Festival.  Here's what that looked like a week ago:

1) The Holdovers/Payne

2) May December/Haynes

3) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

4) Monster/Kore-eda

5) Strangers/Haigh

6) El Conde/Larrain

7) Poor Things/Lanthimos

8) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

9) The American Buffalo/Burns

10) The End/Oppenheimer

And after a week of additional snooping, here is your latest iteration of MTFB's Ten Bets:

1) The Holdovers/Payne

2) May December/Haynes

3) Nyad/Chin/Vasarhelyi

4) Strangers/Haigh

5) Poor Things/Lanthimos

6) Monster/Kore-eda

7) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

8) El Conde/Larrain

9) Saltburn/Fennell

10) The End/Oppenheimer

Other possibilities: The Zone of Interest/Glazer, Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Teachers' Lounge/Catak, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe, The American Buffalo/Burns, Priscilla/Coppola and Shirley/Ridley.

CHECKING THE DISTRIBUTORS: AMAZON STUDIOS

The sifting through the most common recent film distribution companies that have played Telluride and the guessing game about what that might mean for TFF #50 continues today with Amazon Studios.

Here's their track record at TFF over the past few years:

2022: Wildcat, Good Night Oppy

2021: Encounter, A Hero

2020: All In: The Fight for Democracy

2019: The Aeronauts, The Report

2018: Peterloo, Cold War

2017: Wonderstruck

2016: Manchester by the Sea

So, what might we see?

Three possibilities: Emerald Fennell's Saltburn seems the most likely.  A couple of sources have indicated that the film is a hot commodity among the Telluride/Venice/Toronto triumvirate.

Other films are Garth Davis' Foe Michael Showalter's The Idea of You and Maggie Betts' The Burial.

Other Amazon films for 2023 have already been released or screened at Sundance making their play at TFF unlikely.

My assessment of chances for these four films:

Saltburn 40%

The Burial 30%

The Idea of You 20%

Foe 20%

TORONTO ANNOUNCES FIRST FILM

The Toronto International Film Festival announced yesterday that it will World Premiere Taika Waititi's Next Goal Wins from distributor/producer Searchlight.  That effectively removes the film from TFF #50 consideration...at least on this blog.  

I had Next Goal Wins at a 25% chance of making the Telluride lineup when I did my review of Searchlight films on June 19th.

Two other Searchlight films had better shots at Telluride on that June 16th post-Strangers and Poor Things.  Both of those films stayed in today's new Ten Bets.

Here is coverage of Toronto's announcement from Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel.

SEPAKING OF WOR

MTFB made an appearance at Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel yesterday as the blog got cited as Ruimy turned his attention to films that might be possibilities for TFF #50.

A Compass

In addition to the films he cites from MTFB's Ten Bets, Ruimy adds this:

"Maybe we’ll also get some of these: Maestro (Cooper), Priscilla (Coppola), The Actor (Johnson), The Bikeriders (Nichols) and Ferrari (Mann). It all depends on their quality, Telluride head Julie Huntsinger is very nitpicky when it comes to curating her lineup."

All of these would be welcome and interesting choices.  Of the five Ruimy lists I think Priscilla is the most likely Telluride play.  As a matter of fact, Ruimy's speculation is enough for me to add Priscilla to the "Other possibilities" listing for today's update of the Ten Bets.

The complete Telluride 2023 story from WOR click here.

A COUPLE OF TRAILERS FOR TFF #49 DOCUMENTARIES

A COMPASSIONATE SPY

MY NAME IS ALFRED HITCHCOCK

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Ten Bets for TFF #50 / Neglia's List / Trailers for Challengers and Priscilla

 TEN BETS FOR TFF #50

Today's the day...the countdown to the lineup announcement for the 50th Telluride Film Festival on this blog begins in earnest today with 2023's first edition of MTFB's "Ten Bets".

Regular readers will know that this is my first "real" stab at predicting what will be playing at Telluride over the Labor Day weekend.  I'll subsequently adjust and expand the list as the summer goes on.  Serious indicators occur with announcements about what will be screening at the Toronto and Venice fests and, to a lesser degree Venice's scheduling and the New York Film Fest lineup.

The final Ten Bets for 2023 will be the Monday post on August 28th.

Again, as dedicated readers of this space are aware, MTFB on average lands between 5-6 films on this initial list that end up in the lineup when it is revealed.  To wit, last year this was the list of films that comprised the first Ten Bets for TFF #49.  Films that actually screened at TFF are in Bold.

1) Bardo/Inarritu

2) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

3) The Son/Zeller

4) Close/Dhont

5) Women Talking/Polley

6) Aftersun/Wells

7) Showing Up/Reichardt

8) White Noise/Baumbach

9) Broker/Kore-eda

10) She Said/M. Schrader

6/10

Here was the 2021 first Ten Bets:

1) The Power of the Dog/Campion

2) Muhammad Ali/Burns, Burns and McMahon

3) The Card Counter/Schrader

4) Nightmare Alley/Del Toro

5) The Velvet Underground/Haynes

6) Bergman Island/Hansen-Love

7) Cow/Arnold

8) A Hero/Farhadi

9) Blonde/Dominik

10) The Story of Looking/Cousins

8/10

Going back to the advent of my Ten Bets approach, here was the track record from 2011-2019:

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10

2019: 4/10

So, with all of that as prelude, here is MTFB's first Ten Bets for films to play at The SHOW in 2023:

1) The Holdovers/Payne

2) May December/Haynes

3) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

4) Monster/Kore-eda

5) Strangers/Haigh

6) El Conde/Larrain

7) Poor Things/Lanthimos

8) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

9) The American Buffalo/Burns

10) The End/Oppenheimer

Other possibilities: Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Teachers' Lounge/Catak, The Zone of Ineterst/Glazer, Saltburn/Fennell, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe and Shirley/Ridley.

There you go.  Now let's see how this all unfolds over the next ten weeks.

NEGLIA'S LIST

Matt Neglia, who runs Next Best Picture, posted a terrific piece this week about what film fests had hosted the World Premiere's of Best Picture Oscar nominees.  Neglia focused on the nominees since AMPAS adopted the expanded Best Picture field in 2009.

Here's his list for TFF (with best Picture winners in Bold.):

Telluride Film Festival

2022: Women Talking

2021: Belfast & King Richard

2020: None

2019: Ford v Ferrari

2018: None

2017: Darkest Hour, Lady Bird

2016: Moonlight

2015: Room

2014: The Imitation Game

2013: 12 Years A Slave

2012: Argo

2011: The Descendants

2010: 127 Hours, The King’s Speech

2009: Up In The Air

Neglia also includes analysis for Sundance, Cannes, Berlin, SXSW, Venice, Toronto, New York and AFI.

His compilation shows the following statistics for the number of Best Picture World Premieres at these fests:

Venice Film Festival: 21

Sundance Film Festival: 15

Telluride Film Festival: 15

Cannes Film Festival: 14

Toronto Film Festival: 12

New York Film Festival: 8

AFI Fest: 3

Berlin Film Festival: 1

SXSW: 1

So, since 2009 TFF has had the second most World Premieres of Best Picture nominees trailing only Venice and tied with Sundance.  However, what Matt doesn't look is the North American Premieres that happen at Telluride (and Toronto and New York for that matter).  If you factor those in, then Telluride's place in the fest firmament re: Oscar BP nominations is more pronounced.

Here's the rundown for each year where TFF screened the North American premiere (usually) of films that were Oscar nominated for Best Picture after having their World Premiere at an earlier fest:

2022: TAR (Venice)

2021: The Power of the Dog (Venice)

2020: Nomadland (Venice), The Father (Sundance)

2019: Parasite (Cannes), Marriage Story (Venice)

2018: The Favourite (Venice), Roma (Venice)

2017: The Shape of Water (Venice)

2016: Arrival (Venice), La La Land (Venice), Manchester by the Sea (Sundance)

2015: Spotlight (Venice)

2014: Birdman (Venice)

2013: Nebraska (Cannes), Gravity (Venice)

2012: Amour (Cannes)

2011: The Artist (Cannes)

2010: Black Swan (Venice)

2009: An Education (Sundance)

So all told, 35 films have played Telluride since 2009 and gone on to a Best Picture nomination.  Neglia points out that during that same time period 35 films were Best Picture nominated without any festival debut at all.

But Toronto is a huge player.  Yes, they have only World Premiered 12 films from 2009-2022 that have been BP nominated BUT...they have also screened a whopping 41 films that were not World Premieres at TIFF but did receive a Best Picture nomination.

Five each from Sundance and Cannes.  17 from Venice and 14 of the Telluride 15 World Premieres went on to Toronto.  The only film not of Telluride's 15 that didn't go on to TIFF was King Richard.

Nine Best Picture Oscar winners in the 2009-22 time frame played both Telluride and Toronto.  Here are those films:

2021: Nomadland

2020: Parasite

2018: The Shape of Water

2017: Moonlight

2016: Spotlight

2014: 12 Years a Slave

2013: Argo

2012: The Artist

2011: The King's Speech

There's a lot more to digest from Matt's post which is linked here.

TRAILERS FOR CHALLENGERS AND PRISCILLA

We have new trailers this week for a couple of films that are on the periphery of Telluride possibilities.  

Luca Guadagnino could return to TFF this year with his story of a three person love affair.  Challengers features, Zendaya, Mike Faist and Josh O'Connor in a film set in the world of professional tennis.  It is being distributed by United Artists Releasing. The film's release date is set for Sept. 15th.  Guadagnino's Bones and All as well as Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams were both screened at TFF #49.  

Both Alex Billington at First Showing.net and Steven Prusakowski at Awards Radar are suggesting that Telluride is realistic stop for the film.

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

And also this week, the trailer for Sofia Coppola's Priscilla which tells the story of the woman who married and divorced Elvis Presley.  It stars Cailee Spaeny as Priscilla with Jacob Elordi as the King.

Coppola hasn't screened a film at Telluride since 2003's Lost in Translation but with it being TFF's 50th edition and the Coppola family having strong ties to the history of Telluride, I can see her returning with this film. Priscilla does not yet have an announced release date.  Distribution is being handled by A24.

Again, from YouTube:

Both Alex Billington at First Showing.net and Steven Prusakowski at Awards Radar are suggesting that Telluride is realistic stop for the film 

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Cannes Final Critical Analysis / Neglia's Cannes-Telluride Analysis / Miyazaki-Not This Time?

CANNES FINAL CRITICAL ANALYSIS

After a serious on-again/off-again connectivity issue I finally have the last look at the critical compilation for the films of Cannes #76 from Reini Urabn.  Urban's collection of critical responses is massive.  You can find that here.

I wrote a couple of weeks ago that Telluride normally programs an average of four films from the top 25 of Urban's compilation.  Additionally, the crossover between the fests overall is 7-8 films each year.

This year seven films that I have had my eye on as potential plays at TFF #50 finished in Reini's top 25:

2) The Zone of Interest (8.03) (2nd only to Killers of the Flower Moon)

5) Perfect Days (7.76)

8) Monster (7.57)

12) Fallen Leaves (7.41)

14) La Chimera (7.35)

17) May/December (7.28)

23) The Book of Solutions (7.14)

Other films that I've had on the TFF #50 watch list that finished below the top 25:

41) Occupied City (6.68)

55) Anselm (6.40)

66) The Old Oak (6.11)

93) Strange Way of Life (5.58)

97) The New boy (5.46)

And films that I haven't had my eye on but that Cannes put on my radar:

4) Anatomy of a Fall (7.79) (Palme d'Or winner)

11) Robot Dreams (7.43)

26) The Goldman Case (7.05)

27) How to Have Sex (7.03) (Un Certain Regard winner)

40) The Settlers 6.72

75) The Delinquents (5.96)

NEGLIA'S CANNES/TELLURIDE ANALYSIS

Next Best Picture's Matt Neglia posted a list of a number of films that played at the 76th Cannes Film Festival over the past two weeks that he feels could be in play to be selected for the TFF #50 lineup.  from Matt's Twitter feed:

From Matt's list I would certainly concur re: La Chimera, May/December, Monster and The Zone of Interest.

I'd tend to agree based on the critical reception that Palme d'Or winner Anatomy of a Fall and The Goldman case might be in play as well.  The others?  Maybe.

Other Cannes films that I think may be in play either from my pre-Cannes "feel" or because of their reception/buzz at Cannes include: Fallen Leaves, Perfect Days, Anselm, Strange Way of Life, The Book of Solutions, The Delinquents, The Settlers and maybe even the animated Robot Dreams.

As always, here is my plea to Paramount/Apple, Scorsese...who or whatever, to bring Killers of the Flower Moon to Telluride.

MIYAZAKI-NOT THIS TIME?

I had some thought that Hayao Miyazaki's How Do You Live? might make an appearance at Telluride.  He has had a significant presence at TFF over the years with Princess Mononoke, Spirited Away and The Wind Rises all having screened at TFF.  However, Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reported yesterday that any festival screening of the new film is unlikely writing, in part:

"A few months ago, I was told Cannes boss Thierry Frémaux tried as hard as he could to get Hayao Miyazaki’s “How Do You Live”  in competition, but it seems as though Miyazaki just doesn’t want to do film festivals at all. Not even Venice.

Miyazaki and Studio Ghibli are perfectly content in having their latest film screen to the Japanese public before the rest of the world, just as they have done with almost every other film of his." 

Though the reporting is not absolute on the issue, Rumiy later in the post writes that skipping Venice is a "high possibility".

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Cannes Winners / Cannes and the Critics / NEON and Perfect Days

CANNES WINNERS

The 76th Cannes Film Festival came to a close with its awards presentation on Saturday night.  Justine Triet's Anatomy of a Fall took the top prize, the Palme d'Or.  Jonathan Glazer's The Zone of Interest took the Grand Prix, essentially the runner-up prize and Aki Kaurismaki's Fallen Leaves landed the Jury Prize, regarded as the third place prize.

Other awards went to:

Director: The Pot  au Feu/Tran Anh Hung

Screenplay: Monster/Sakamoto Fuji

Actress: About Dry Grasses/Merve Dizdar

Actor: Perfect Days/Koji Yakusho

Molly Manning Walker's How to Have Sex won the top award in the Un Certain Regards section.

You could make a relatively good case for most of the prize winners making the jump from Cannes to Telluride.  

All awards can be found here from Variety.

CANNES AND THE CRITICS

Here's where a number of the critics polls from Cannes landed for the Palme d'Or competition films at the end of the two weeks:

Screen Daily:

1) Fallen Leaves/Kaurismaki 3.2

2) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet 3.0

2) May December/Haynes 3.0

4) Perfect Days/Wneders 2.9

4) La Chimera/Rohrwacher 2.9

Glazer's The Zone of Interest was just outside of the top five.

The International Cinephile Society:

1) The Zone of Interest/Glazer 4.24

2) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet 3.85

3) Fallen Leaves/Kaurismaki 3.76

4) Last Summer/Breiliat 3.70

5) May December/Haynes 3.50

Ioncinema:

1) The Zone of Interest/Glazer 3.9

2) Fallen Leaves/Kaurismaki 3.7

3) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet 3.5

3) La Chimera/Rohrwacher 3.5

5) The Old Oak/Loach 3.4

Once again, connection issues have prevented access to Reini Urban's massive Cannes crtics compilation.

NEON AND PERFECT DAYS

Wim Wenders Perfect Days was taken by distributor NEON toward the end of the Cannes fest.  The acquisition probably increases the chance that the film makes an appearance at Telluride in three months.

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Cannes Opening Imminent - Top Possibilities / WOR and the Best of the '60's -Part Two / Looks At: Poor Things and Cobweb

CANNES OPENING IMMINENT-TOP POSSIBILITIES

Set photo from Jonathan Glazer's The Zone of Interest

The 76th Cannes Film Festival is just hours away from its opening and MTFB continues to monitor the pre-fest buzz for films that could make the trans-Atlantic crossing from France to southwestern Colorado on Labor Day weekend.

As frequent readers know, traditionally many films make the Cannes/Telluride Two-Step each year.  On average (based on the last 12 years) there are 7-8 films that make that double-play.  Last year nine films made the trip including Aftersun, Armageddon Time, Broker, Close, Holy Spider and The Pupils.

As we near the start of this year's fest on The Croisette, Indiewire has published their list of "Most Anticipated" titles.  Looking at that, here's another stab from that list at what might SHOW up at T-ride:

La Chimera/Rohrwacher

Fallen Leaves/Kaurismaki

Killer of the Flower Moon/Scorsese

May/December/Haynes

Monster/Kore-eda

Strange Way of Life/Almodovar

The Zone of Interest/Glazer

The complete Indiewire story and list are linked here.

As always, I'll be keeping track of the critical reaction from Cannes as that can sometimes point to the viability of films moving forward. Here are the dates that some of the films of interest will be having their initial public screening:

In Palme competition:

Monster 5/17

The Zone of Interest 5/19

May/December 5/20

Perfect Days 5/25

La Chimera 5/26

The Old Oak 5/26

Others not in Palme Competition:

Occupied City 5/17

Strange Way of Life 5/17

Anselm 5/17

The New Boy 5/19

Killers of the Flower Moon 5/20

Cobweb 5/25

Closing night ceremonies will take place on May 27th.

WOR AND THE BEST OF THE 60'S -PART TWO

Last Thursday I wrote about participating in World of Reel's poll of the greatest films of the 1960's.  Since that post WOR head man Jordan Ruimy has published the individual ballots of all 130+ people who participated.  That let me see how my list of ten great films of the 60's stacked up with everyone else.

 Here's my list of ten and where they landed within the top 40 that Ruimy posted last week:

2001: A Space Odyssey (1)

The Apartment (9)

Cool Hand Luke

Dr. Strangelove (3)

The Graduate (5)

The Hustler 

Lawrence of Arabia (4)

Midnight Cowboy (17)

To Kill a Mockingbird

They Shoot Horses Don't They

As to the films that I listed that did not make the Top 40, here's the number of ballots they had with this note, it took 7 ballots to make the Top 40.:

Cool Hand Luke-5

The Hustler-5

To Kill a Mockingbird- 6

They Shoot Horses Don't They-3

The complete list of individual ballots is here.

LOOKS AT: POOR THINGS, COBWEB AND  ANSLEM

POOR THINGS TEASER

I will admit that I am fascinated by what this Yorgos Lanthimos film might be.  Additionally, I'm a big fan of Emma Stone  The IMDb description:

"The incredible tale and fantastical evolution of Bella Baxter (Stone), a young woman brought back to life by the brilliant and unorthodox scientist Dr. Godwin Baxter (Dafoe)."

Here's the teaser from YouTube that was released by Searchlight on May 11th:

Here's The Hollywood Reporter on the film.

COBWEB

I have Director Kin Jee-woon's Cobweb as an outside shot to make the lineup for TFF #50.  It play's in an Out-of-Competition slot.

The IMDb Desription:

"an experimental and genre-defying drama shot entirely on sound stages in support of a film-within-a-film narrative."

Here's the trailer with subtitles from YouTube:

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Cannes: What's In and What's Out / Hiatus Time Starts Today

CANNES: WHAT'S IN AND WHAT'S OUT

The Cannes Film Festival has announced their lineup across several different categories and generally speaking the various outlets that have been speculating what will play have been spot on.

These are the films that seem the most likely to make the crossover between Cannes and Telluride from each of the various sections:

Competition:

The Zone of Interest/Glazer

Fallen Leaves/Kaurismaki

Monster/Kore-eda

La Chimera/Rohrwacher

May/December/Haynes

Perfect Days/Wenders

Un Certain Regard:

The New Boy/Thornton

Out of Competition:

Killers of the Flower Moon/Scorsese

Cobweb/Jee-woon

Special Screenings:

Occupied City/McQueen

Anselm/Wenders

Short Films:

Strange Way of Life/Almodovar

As has often been the case with Cannes,  Festival Director Thierry Fremaux revealed that there will be other films added in the coming days.  I'll be eagerly watching for those additions to see if the added films might also smell like they could be Telluride bound.

Here's the complete lineup from Variety.

HIATUS TIME STARTS TODAY

MTFB will be on Hiatus for the next three weeks.  I'll still be keeping an eye on the buzz from Cannes and other possible sources of intell re: TFF #50.  

Should anything vital emerge over the next three weeks I'll post that on my Twitter account @Gort2 and/or MTFB's Facebook page.

MTFB will return on May 4th. 

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Let's Talk Big Picture: Part Two / THR's Best 50 Movies of the 21st Century and Telluride / One More Guess at Cannes

 LET'S TALK BIG PICTURE: PART TWO

In this second look at where we are regarding possible TFF #50 players I've collected a list of all of the titles that I have posted as possibilities based upon ten different articles from over the past few months.  The articles focus on one of four areas: "Most Anticipated Films" for 2023, "Early Oscar Predictions", "Cannes Speculation" and "Venice Speculation".

The ten articles/posts are:

The Playlist's Most Anticipated

The Film Stage's Most Anticipated

Variety's Early Oscar Predictions

Next Best Picture's Early Oscar Predictions

A.V. Club's Early Oscar Predictions

Ioncinema's Cannes Spec

Indiewire's Cannes Spec

Screen Daily's Cannes Spec

World of Reel's Cannes Spec

World of Reel's Venice Spec

And from all that, here are 57 films that could play Telluride:

The Actor/Johnson

AND*/Lanthimos

The Bastard/Arcel

Blitz*/McQueen

The Book of Clarence/Samuel

The Book of Solutions*/Gondry

Butterfly Jam/Balagov

The Captain (Io Capitano)*/Garrone

Caste/DuVernay

Challengers/Guadagnino

Cobweb/Bodin

The Color Purple*/Bazawule

Daaaaaali!/Dupieux

Die My Love/Ramsay

El Conde/Larrian

Emilia Perez/Audiard

The End/Oppenheimer

Fallen Leaves*/Kaurismaki

Fingernails/Nikou

Flint Strong/Morrison

Foe/Davis

Freud's Last Session/Brown

The Holdovers*/Payne

How Do You Live?*/Miyazaki

The Island/Pawlikowski

The Killer*+/Fincher

Killers of the Flower Moon*+/Scorsese

La Chimera/Rohrwacher

Lee/Kuras

A Little Prayer/MacLachlan

Longlegs/Perkins

Love Lies Bleeding/Glass

Maestro*+/Cooper

May/December*/Haynes

Monster*/Kore-eda

Mother's' Instinct/Delhomme

My Crime (The Crime Is Mine)/Ozon

Napoleon/Scott

The New Boy/Thornton

Next Goal Wins*/Waititi

Nightbitch/Heller

Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

The Old Oak/Loach

Orwell/Peck

Poor Things*/Lanthimos

Priscilla*/Coppola

The Royal Hotel*/Green

Rustin*/Wolfe

Saltburn/Fennell

Shirley/Ridley

Strangers*/Haigh

Tokyo Toilet/Wenders

Untitled Bob Marley Biopic/Green

Untitled Sean Baker Film/Baker

The Way of the Wind/Malick

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar/Anderson

The Zone of Interest*/Glazer

*Film that I have included on three or more previous lists

+Film that's more a wish than a prediction

My first Ten Bets are coming in ten weeks (unless I get restless and pop them early).

THR'S BEST 50 MOVIES OF THE 21ST CENTURY

The Hollywood Reporter's gaggle of critics published their list of the 50 best films of the 2000's late last week and, to no one's surprise...there was some disagreement.  I, for one, was mystified that Paul Thomas Anderson's There will Be Blood merited only an honorable mention and The Master was nowhere to be found.  Also, the Coen Brothers' No Country for Old Men...not a peep.  Still, looking at the 50 films plus the honorable mention, TFF has been a launching pad for a bunch of THR's choices.

Among honorable mentions from TFF: Cache, L'Enfant, Under the Skin and Waltz with Bashir.

TFF films in the list of 50:

47-Bright Star

44-Things to Come

35-The Favourite

33-Portrait of a Lady on Fire

31-Manchester by the Sea

21-Parasite

20-Far from Heaven

18-Shoplifters

17-Talk to Her

15-The Power of the Dog

12-Moonlight

9-4 Months, Three Weeks and Two Days

7-Brokeback Mountain

6-Spirited Away

5-Mulholland Drive

4-Zodiac

2-Inside Llewyn Davis

1-Yi Yi

The complete post is linked here.

ONE MORE GUESS AT CANNES

Cineuropa has a post up as of last Thursday with an extensive list of potential titles at Cannes.  Many of  what not seem to be the usual suspects are there which also provides many of the same titles that I am eyeballing as possible Cannes/Telluride crossover films.  Among them:

Monster/Kore-eda

Fallen Leaves/Kaurismaki

Poor Things/Lanthimos

The Holdovers/Payne

May/December/Haynes

The New Boy/Thornton

The Bikeriders/Nichols

The Captain/Garrone

Daaaaaali!/Dupieux

Ricardo et la Peinture/Schroeder

The complete and extensive set of guesses is linked here.

Will have actual Cannes titles for my next post on April 13th.

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Screen Daily Looks at Cannes Possibilities / Dune: Part Two

SCREEN DAILY LOOKS AT CANNES POSSIBILITIES

We're growing closer to the actual announcement of films that will be a part of this year's Cannes Film Fest's various sections.  Then we can look at them for clues as to possible Telluride choices for TFF #50.  In this interim, now down to 10 days, looking at informed speculation is the best game in town.  Among the best each year at sussing out probable Cannes selections is Screen Daily and that's where we look today to gauge what might happen.

Screen Daily, rather uniquely, divides their picks geographically, so we'll organize that way as well.  Here are what I feel like are the most viable T-ride potentials from the Screen Daily list:

France: 

The Book of Solutions/Gondry

Daaaaaali!/Depieux

North America:

Killers of the Flower Moon/Scorsese

May/December/Haynes

UK:

The Old Oak/Loach

Italy:

La Chimera/Rohrwacher

Io Capitano/Garrone

Other Europe:

Poor Things/Lanthimos

AND/Lanthimos

Fallen Leaves/Kaurismaki

The Bastard/Arcel

Asia and Australia:

Monster/Kore-eda

Cobweb/Kang-ho

The New Boy/Thornton

The entire Screen Daily article is linked here.

DUNE: PART TWO

I haven't given any thought to a possibility that Dune Part Two might play TFF #50.  After the first film opted not to play at Telluride my assumption has been that there was no chance that the sequel would play The SHOW.  That despite the fact that director and co-writer Denis Villenueve has had a substantial history with TFF including screenings of  Arrival (2016), Prisoners (2013), Incendies (2010) and August 32nd on earth (1998).

All that said to get almost certain confirmation from a story by Andreas Wiseman for Variety that posted last week.  In it Variety reports that the film will not be ready for a Venice premiere.  Since T-ride and Venice run side-by-side, we know that a TFF #50 screening would also be out of the question.

the article does tease that a later film festival might be in play for the film which has a scheduled release date of Nov. 3rd.  New York maybe?

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750,000 / 50 for Cannes / Meanwhile...Venice

750,000

I kind of teased this a little bit in my last post.  MTFB passed its 750,000 view over the weekend.  Three quarters of a million views!  That makes my head explode just a little bit. 

MTFB's first appeared on August 8th 2008 (8/8/08).  Today marks the 2115th post since I started this thing meaning that each post has averaged 355ish views.  The single most viewed post was Jan. 18, 2018.  That post focused on precursors that were upcoming for the 90th Oscar ceremony and a Variety piece featuring Greta Gerwig and Saorise Ronan talking about Lady Bird.

Here's the very post.

Here's the most viewed post.

50 FOR CANNES

Eric Kohn and the gang at Indiewire has put together a list of 50 films that the billas films they'd "like to see" at Cannes in May.  The heading on the email link for the story from Twitter calls them predictions though.  

As I have said many times, the Cannes/Telluride connection is very real.  Last year the Cannes/Telluride crossover was nine films by my count:

Armageddon Time

Broker

Close

Godland 

Holy Spider

One Fine Morning

Tori and Lokita

Le Pupille

Aftersun

Last year from Indiewire's 50 film wish list I culled 15 "possible" crossover films and from that list, seven actually made the trip: Armageddon Time, Broker, Close, Holy Spider, One Fine Morning, Tori and Lokita and Women Talking.

Bones and All was the only film on last year's Indiewire list that made the Telluride lineup (and from Venice not Cannes) that I didn't have in the 2022 version of this post.

The Indiewire post starts with the caveat that everyone is assuming that Killers of the Flower Moon will screen out of competition at Cannes as well as Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.  I'm already frequently on record that I'm making blood sacrifices in my backyard to get Killers to TFF but that I think the chances are slim.  Not impossible...but slim.  Of course Indy 5 releases on June 30th.

They also mention Pedro Almodovar's short film Strange Way of Life which is tipped to be the opening night film.  I actually think there is a reasonable possibility that it does make the TFF #50 lineup.

That said...here are what I think are the best shots at Cannes-then-Telluride films for the 50th edition of The SHOW from the Indieiwire list:

The Book of Solutions/Michel Gondry

Dead Leaves/Aki Kaurismaki

La Chimera/Alice Rohrwacher

Io Capitano/Matteo Garrone

Monster/Hirokazu Kore-eda

The New Boy/Warwick Thornton

May/December/Todd Haynes

Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

The Royal Hotel/Kitty Green

Tokyo Toilet/Wim Wenders

The Zone of Interest/Jonathan Glazer

Here's the complete Indiewire story.

MEANWHILE...VENICE

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel posted a Venice spec piece on Saturday and it has some interesting ideas.  Venice and Cannes have nearly the same level of crossover to Telluride with Venice averaging (over the last decade) 7.3 films making the Venice/Telluride double dip.

Last year there were 10 films that accomplished the double play:

Bardo

Bobi Wine

Bones and All

A Compassionate Spy

Desperate Souls: Midnight Cowboy...

Fragments of Paradise

Living

TAR

March on Rome

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

So what does Jordan have that could (or that I want to) make the Venice/Telluride connection?

Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

AND/Yorgos Lanthimos

The Killer/David Fincher

Blitz/Steve McQueen

How Do You Live?/Hayao Myazaki

The Holdovers/Alexander Payne

Maestro/Bradley Cooper

Challengers/Luca Guadagnino

Strangers/Andrew Haigh

Ruimy also mentions a couple of other films that could be in the mix for Venice first and then T-ride: Sofia Coppola's Priscilla and Jonathan Glazer's The Zone of Interest.

Here's Jordan's full post.

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