MTFB Oscar Update: Penultimate Predix for the Big Eight Categories/ PGA and The Sag/Aftra Awards / Ghost Elephants Trailer / Visitations: Trier and Herzog

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PENULTIMATE PREDIX FOR THE BIG EIGHT CATEGORIES

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Frankenstein (6)

7) The Secret Agent (7)

8) Train Dreams (9)

9) Bugonia (8)

10) F1 (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (2)

3) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

4) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (3)

5) Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I's Kick You (2)

3) Renate Reinsve/Sentimental Value (3)

4) Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue (4)

5) Emma Stone/Bugonia (5)

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (4)

3) Wagner Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Leonardo DiCaprio/One Battle After Another (2)

5) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Wunmi Moskau/Sinners (3)

3) Amy Madigan/Weapons (2)

4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (5)

3) Delroy Lindo/Sinners (4)

4) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein (2)

5) Benicio Del Toro/One Battle After Another (3)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) It Was Just an Accident (4)

5) Blue Moon (5)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Bugonia (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

This and That:

*Supporting Actor is all over the place now.  

*Supporting Actress is also very unsettled. 

*Best Picture and Actor are also a bit unsettled as we move into the last couple of weeks prior to Oscar night on Mar. 15.  *

Look out for Wagner Moura in the Best Actor race.

PGA AND THE "ACTOR" AWARDS

One Battle After Another won the Producers' Guild top prize on Saturday night seemingly sealing it for the Best Picture Oscar.  Meanwhile at the SAG/Aftra's Actor Awards on Sunday night:

Ensemble: Sinners

Female Lead: Jesse Buckley/Hamnet

Male Lead: Michael B. Jordan/Sinners

Female Supporting: Amy Madigan/Weapons

Male Supporting: Sean Penn/One Battle After Another

Stunt Ensemble: Mission Impossible: The Fina Reckoning

GHOST ELEPHANTS TRAILER

VISITATIONS

Director Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value from THR's Awards Chatter Podcast.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/awards-chatter-pod-joachim-trier-sentimental-value-1236517803/

Werner Herzog for Ghost Elephants from The Film Stage.

https://thefilmstage.com/werner-herzog-on-dreams-defeats-ghost-elephants-and-why-hes-not-a-workaholic/

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MTFB Oscar Update: the Big Eight's Second Round / Visitations: Hamnet and Sentimental Value

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE:THE BIG EIGHT'S SECOND ROUND

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Frankenstein (6)

7) The Secret Agent (7)

8) Bugonia (8)

9) Train Dreams (9)

10) F1 (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (2)

3) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (3)

4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I's Kick You (2)

3) Renate Reinsve/Sentimental Value (3)

4) Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue (5)

5) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/One Battle After Another (2)

3) Wagner Moura/The Secret Agent (4)

4) Michael B. Jordan/Sinneres (3)

5) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Amy Madigan/Weapons (2)

3) Wunmi Moskau/Sinners (3)

4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein (2)

3) Benicio Del Toro/One Battle After Another (3)

4) Delroy Lindo/Sinners (4)

5) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) It Was Just an Accident (4)

5) Blue Moon (5)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Bugonia (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

This and that: Two minor moves in the Acting categories mark the only changes in these categories since their last posting on Feb. 9th.  Kate Hudson and Wagner Moura both move a spot in the Best Lead categories.  Otherwise the status quo remains everywhere else.

VISITATIONS

HAMNET:

Chloe Zhao from The Wrap.

https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/awards/chloe-zhao-hamnet-interview-cover-story/

Chloe Zhao and Sam Mendes from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/global/sam-mendes-chloe-zhao-emotional-cost-directing-hamnet-1236664653/

Jesse Buckley from Deadline.

https://deadline.com/2026/02/jessie-buckley-hamnet-paul-mescal-interview-1236719350/

SENTIMENTAL VALUE:

Stellan Skarsgard from Indiewire.

https://www.indiewire.com/awards/consider-this/stellan-skarsgard-career-interview-1235179293/

Stellan Skarsgard from Awards Radar

https://awardsradar.com/2026/02/18/interview-stellan-skarsgard-discusses-his-career-and-first-oscar-nomination-for-sentimental-value/

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/awards/inga-ibsdotter-lilleaas-sentimental-value-bad-bunny-1236662568/

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas from Awards Radar.

https://awardsradar.com/2026/02/14/interview-inga-ibsdotter-lilleaas-discusses-sentimental-value-and-her-first-oscar-nomination/

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MTFB Oscar Take: Best Picture, Direction and Lead Acting / More of the Deluge: Golden Globes, L.A. Film Critics, Critic's Choice and The American Film Institute / La Grazia Trailer

MTFB OSCAR TAKE:  BEST PICTURE, DIRECTION AND LEAD ACTING #4

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Marty Supreme (5)

5) Sentimental Value (4)

6) Frankenstein (7)

7) It Was Just an Accident (8)

8) Jay Kelly (9)

9) Wicked: For Good (6)

10) Train Dreams (10)

Others: Avatar: Fire and Ice, Bugonia and The Secret Agent.

 

Notes: Wicked: for Good takes a substantial drop.  The Frankenstein charge continues.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)

3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)

4) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (4)

5) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein and Park Chan-wook/No Other Choice.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)

3) Cynthia Enviro/Wicked: For Good (3)

4) Amanda Seyfried/The Testament of Ann Lee (5)

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

Others: Chase Infiniti/OBAA, Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You and Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue.

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/OBAA (2)

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (5)

5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (4)

Others: Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), George Clooney/Jay Kelly and  Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

MORE OF THE DELUGE

Critics and Film Organizations continued these past few days with their lists of "Best Ofs" and/or nominations. 

GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS

The Golden Globe nominations were announced this morning.  TFF #52 films did well earning a collective 36 nominations.  One Battle After Another led all films with nine nominations..  Here's the rundown of TFF #52 nominees:

Sentimental Value (8): Best Picture/Drama, Non-English Language Film, Actress/Drama, Supporting Actress X 2, Supporting actor, Direction, Screenplay.

Hamnet (6): Best Picture/Drama, Actress/Drama. Supporting Actor, Director, Screenplay and Score.

Frankenstein (5): best Picture/Drama, Actor/Drama, Supporting Actor, Director, Score.

It Was Just an Accident (4): Best Picture/Drama, Non-English Language Film, Director, Screenplay.

The Secret Agent (3): Best Picture/Drama, Non-English Language Film, Actor/Drama

Bugonia (3): Best Picture/Musical or Comedy, Actress/Musical or Comedy, Actor Musical or Comedy.

Blue Moon (2): Best Picture/Musical or Comedy, Actor/Musical or Comedy.

Jay Kelly (2): Best Actor/Musical or Comedy, Supporting Actor.

Springsteen; Deliver Me from Nowhere (1): Best Actor/Musical or Comedy.

If I had Legs Id' Kick You (1): Best Actress/Musical or Comedy.

Nouvelle Vague (1): Best Picture/Musical or Comedy.

The complete Golden Globes list of nominees is here.

LOS ANGELES FILM CRITICS

The L.A. Film Critics' Association named their best films in a number of categories.  Six TFF #52 films earned Best Of or Runner-up Status.  They were:

The Secret Agent: Best Film/Runner-up, Best Non English-Language Film, Lead Performance/Runner-up.

Blue Moon: Best Lead Performance, Supporting actor/Runner-up.

Sentimental Value: Best Supporting Performance, Supporting Performance/Runner-up.

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Lead Performance.

It Was Just an Accident; Best Screenplay.

Frankenstein; Production Design/Runner-up.

CRITICS' CHOICE NOMINATIONS

Sinners lead all films with 17 total CCA nominations followed by One Battle After Another with 14.  TFF#52 films held their own though with both Hamnet and Frankenstein grabbing 11 nominations (the third highest total). TFF #52 films earned a total of 41 nominations.

Here's the TFF #52 breakdown:

HAMNET (Focus Features) – 11

Best Picture

Best Actress – Jessie Buckley

Best Supporting Actor – Paul Mescal

Best Young Actor / Actress – Jacobi Jupe

Best Director – Chloé Zhao

Best Adapted Screenplay – Chloé Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell

Best Casting and Ensemble – Nina Gold

Best Cinematography – Łukasz Żal

Best Production Design – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton

Best Costume Design – Malgosia Turzanska

Best Score – Max Richter

FRANKENSTEIN (Netflix) – 11

Best Picture

Best Supporting Actor – Jacob Elordi

Best Director – Guillermo del Toro

Best Adapted Screenplay – Guillermo del Toro

Best Cinematography – Dan Laustsen

Best Production Design – Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau

Best Costume Design – Kate Hawley

Best Hair and Makeup – Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, Cliona Furey

Best Visual Effects – Dennis Berardi, Ayo Burgess, Ivan Busquets, José Granell

Best Score – Alexandre Desplat

Best Sound – Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern, Greg Chapman

SENTIMENTAL VALUE (Neon) – 7

Best Picture

Best Actress – Renate Reinsve

Best Supporting Actor – Stellan Skarsgård

Best Supporting Actress – Elle Fanning

Best Supporting Actress – Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas

Best Director – Joachim Trier

Best Original Screenplay – Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier

JAY KELLY (Netflix) – 4

Best Picture

Best Supporting Actor – Adam Sandler

Best Original Screenplay – Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer

Best Casting and Ensemble – Douglas Aibel, Nina Gold

BUGONIA (Focus Features) – 3

Best Picture

Best Actress – Emma Stone

Best Adapted Screenplay – Will Tracy

THE SECRET AGENT (Neon) – 2

Best Actor – Wagner Moura

Best Foreign Language Film

BLUE MOON (Sony Pictures Classics) – 1

Best Actor – Ethan Hawke

IF I HAD LEGS I’D KICK YOU (A24) – 1

Best Actress – Rose Byrne

IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Neon) – 1

Best Foreign Language Film

The complete rundown of nominations for the CCA is linked here.

AMERICAN FILM INSTUTUTE TOP TEN FILMS (PLUS)

From the American Film Institute's Top Ten list plus one more superlative (TFF #52 films in Bold):

AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH

BUGONIA

FRANKENSTEIN

HAMNET

JAY KELLY

MARTY SUPREME

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

SINNERS

TRAIN DREAMS

WICKED: FOR GOOD

AFI SPECIAL AWARD

IT WAS JUST AN ACCCIDENT

Here's the complete announcement from the AFI.

LA GRAZIA TRAILER 

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MTFB Oscar Predictions Round Two: Lead Acting/ Gold Derby Has Hamnet in Front / TFF #52 and the British Independent Awards

 MTFB OSCAR PREDICITONS ROUND TWO: LEAD ACTING

MTFB continues its up date of  Oscar predictions with the Lead acting Categories.  These predictions will include the actors current ranking as well as its position from two weeks back.  TFF #52 films are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)

3) Cynthia Enviro/Wicked: For Good (3)

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

5) Amanda Seyfried/The Testament of Ann Lee (NR)

Others: Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue, Sidney Sweeney/Christy and Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (2)

2) Leonardo Di Caprio/OBAA (1)

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Ethan Hawke (NR)

5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)

Others: George Clooney/Jay Kelly, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

Comment:  At this early point there would be five TFF #52 performances nominated for Best Lead: Buckley, Reinsve, Stone, Moura and Hawke.  Big movers up are Seyfried and Hawke.  Also note Chalamet's rise to number one among the men over DiCaprio.

Next post: Supporting Actors.

GOLD DERBY HAS HAMNET IN FRONT

In a very interesting twist Gold Derby now has Chloe Zhao's Hamnet fractionally ahead of Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another.  The edition posted yesterday revealed that.  You can see that post linked here.

Additionally Gold Derby has five TFF #52 in the predicted five for Best Picture: Hamnet, Sentimental Value, It was Just an Accident, Frankenstein and Bugonia.  Five BP nominations for films that played Telluride in a single year would establish a new record TFF.

TFF #52 AND THE BRITISH INDEPENDENT FILM AWARDS

Five TFF #52 films were nominated for British Independent Film Awards on Monday.  Henry Lighton's Pillion had the most nominations of any Telluride film with 10.  Harris Dickinson's Urchin had six.  Here's the complete breakdown:

Pillion (10): Best British Independent Film, Best Direction (Lighton), Screenplay (Lighton), Lead Performance (Melling), Supporting Performance (Skarsgard), Debut Director (Lighton), Debut Screenplay (Lighton), Costuming, Editing and Make-up/Hair.

Urchin (6): Best British Independent Film, Best Lead Performance (Millane), Debut Director (Dickinson), Breakthrough Producer (Pearch). Casting, Music Supervision.

Sentimental Value (1): Best International Independent Film.

It Was Just an Accident (1): Best International Independent Film.

H Is for Hawk (1): Best Cinematography.

The complete list of nominees can be found here on the BIFA website.

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Oscar Predictions Round Two: Best Picture and Direction / Visitations: Del Toro, Isaacs, Stone, Plemons

OSCAR PREDICTIONS ROUND TWO: BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTION

Two weeks ago MTFB began Oscar predictions for 2026 with, of course, an emphasis on TFF #52 contenders.  Today we go back and update the predictions for Best Picture and Direction.  These predictions will include the films current ranking as well as its position from two weeks back.  TFF #52 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Wicked: For Good (9)

7) It Was Just an Accident (8)

8) Jay Kelly (6)

9) Frankenstein (NR)

10) Bugonia (NR)

Others: Train Dreams, Avatar: Fire and Ice, The Secret Agent and A House of Dynamite.

Comment: Big moves up for Wicked: For Good, Frankenstein and Bugonia. Dropping for Jay Kelly and A House of Dynamite.  

Should this list be the actual set of  nominees, TFF would break its record of four BP nominees in a single year with six.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)

3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)

4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (5)

Others: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Noah Baumbach/Jay Kelly and Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein.

VISITATIONS: DEL TORO, ISAAC, STONE, PLEMONS

Guillermo Del Toro and Oscar Isaac for Frankenstein from GQ and YouTube.

Emma Stone, Jesse Plemons, Yorgos Lanthimos and More for Bugonia from Nest Best Picture.

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I'm Back / New Bugonia Date Keeps TFF Possible / And Who Won't Be at TFF #52 / Views from Cannes

I'M BACK

After a week long art show and five days in NYC, MTFB is back...and tired.  Here's the latest after a week away.

NEW BUGONIA DATE KEEPS TFF POSSIBLE

Focus Features announced this past week that they were bumping the release dates for Yorgos Lanthimos' Bugoina up a bit.  Focus now says a limited release will happen on Oct. 24th and then the nationwide rollout will begin a week later.

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel writes that a Venice premiere is likely and the question for us becomes does it follow the same path as did The Favourite and Poor Things both of which did the Venice/Telluride two step.  What could make a difference is that Both The Favourite and Poor Things came from (Fox) Searchlight and Bugonia is being distributed by Focus.  It could be said that Searchlight and Focus have had similar presences at Telluride over the years.  Compare the last five years for each:

(Fox) Searchlight:

2024: A Real Pain

2023: All of Us Strangers, Poor Things

2022: Empire of Light

2021: The French Dispatch

2020: No Fest but...would have screened Nomadland

2019: A Hidden Life

Focus Features:

2024: Conclave, Piece by Piece

2023: The Holdovers

2022: TAR, Armageddon Time

2021: Belfast, The Card Counter

2020: No Fest but... would have screened The Way I See It

2019: No film.

So Searchlight has screened six films and would have had a seventh had Covid not interrupted.  Meanwhile, Focus screened seven and would have had an eighth in 2020.

As an additional side note...Emma Stone.  At Telluride for La La Land in 2016, Battle of the Sexes in 2017 and Tributed in 2018 with The Favourite.  

So, you know, maybe.

AND WHO WON'T BE AT TFF #52

That would be Alexander Payne as he will President of the Golden Lion jury for this year's Venice Film Festival.

Payne has been a frequent visitor to Telluride even in years when he doesn't have a film to screen there. He's been a Guest Director (2009) and attended an additional eight years sometimes with a film sometimes not..  Payne last attended for the 50th Festival in 2023.

The Venice Fest runs from August 27th-Sept. 6th.  TFF #52 runs Aug. 29th- Sept. 1st so Payne's duties as Jury President will mean he can't be in Telluride.

VIEWS FROM CANNES

Images from some of the films playing at Cannes that also seem to have some TFF possibility have been showing up online.  Here are some of those:

TRAILER FOR YOUNG MOTHERS

PHOTO FROM THE HISTORY OF SOUND

PHOTO FROM THE MASTERMIND

More on Thursday...

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OSCAR 2024 / Turn the Page

OSCAR 2024

A memorable Oscar night last night.

Telluride 2023 films pick up an astonishing nine Oscar wins.  That was above what I was predicting.  The Oscars went to:

Poor Things (4): Best Actress (Emma Stone), Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

The Zone of Interest (2): Best International Film and Sound.

The Holdovers (1): Best Supporting Actress (Da'Vine Joy Randolph).

Anatomy of a Fall (1): Best Original Screenplay.

The Last Repair Shop (1): Best Documentary Short.

My prediction success: 19 of 23 for a rate of 82.6 %.  That's a bit higher than my 78.5% rate since 2014. I missed Best Actress, Best Sound, Best Animated Feature and Best Visual Effects.  

I was pleasantly surprised to get all of the Short subject winners right.  For the first time ever, I believe, in each of the four categories that I picked incorrectly, the film/performer I had as the potential upset was, in fact, the winner.

Over at Gold Derby, though, 19/23 is nothing to get snooty about.  I finished 891st out of  11,034 participants.

19/23, though, was better all but one Gold Derby expert (Nikki Novak from Fandango).  I was tied with Shawn Edwards, Susan King and Pete Hammond.  I was ahead of experts from Variety, Indiewire, Next Best Picture, ABC, USA Today, People and Awards Daily.  I'm thinking of petitioning Gold Derby to become one of their expert contributors.

TURN THE PAGE

And now, as we do every year at this time, we turn our attention in a more concentrated fashion to speculation and prediction about the lineup possibilities for the Telluride Film Festival.  Over the next few weeks, I'll be scouring media for early Oscar 2025 predictions for clues as well as the Cannes lineup, set to be revealed, we believe, on April 11th.  That should give us some notions about what to expect over Labor Day weekend.

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MTFB Oscar Update: The Big Eight Penultimate Predix / Carol Doda Has a Trailer / Interviews and Profiles

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: THE BIG EIGHT

We're down to less than three weeks before they open the envelopes on March 10th.  Here's is my latest update on the predicted winners in the "Big Eight" of the 23 Oscar categories. Today's listing also includes a film/performers previous MTFB rank to the right in parentheses.  TFF films are indicated in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Poor Things (2)

3) The Holdovers (3)

4) Anatomy of a Fall (6)

5) American Fiction (7)

6) Killers of the Flower Moon (4)

7) Barbie (5)

8) The Zone of Interest (8)

9) Maestro (9)

10) Past Lives (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Christopher Nolan/Oppenheimer (1)

2) Yorgos Lanthimos/Poor Things (2)

3) Martin Scorsese/Killers of the Flower Moon (3)

4) Jonathan Glazer/The Zone of Interest (4)

5) Justine Triet/Anatomy of a Fall (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Lily Gladstone/Killers of the Flower Moon (1)

2) Emma Stone/Poor Things (2)

3) Sandra Huller/Anatomy of a Fall (3)

4) Annette Bening/Nyad (4)

5) Carey Mulligan/Maestro (5)

BEST ACTOR

1) Cillian Murphy/Oppenheimer (2)

2) Paul Giamatti/The Holdovers (1)

3) Bradley Cooper/Maestro (3)

4) Jeffrey Wright/American Fiction (4)

5) Colman Domingo/Rustin (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Da'Vine Joy Randolph/The Holdovers (1)

2) Emily Blunt/Oppenheimer (2)

3) America Ferrera/Barbie (4)

4) Danielle Brooks/The Color Purple (3)

5) Jodie Foster/Nyad (3)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Robert Downey, Jr./Oppenheimer (1)

2) Ryan Gosling/Barbie (2)

3) Mark Ruffalo/Poor Things (3)

4) Robert DeNiro/Killers of the Flower Moon (4)

5) Sterling K. Brown/American Fiction (5)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) American Fiction (3)

2) Barbie (2)

3) Oppenheimer (1)

4) Poor Things (4)

5) The Zone of Interest (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anatomy of a Fall (1)

2) The Holdovers (2)

3) Past Lives (3)

4) Maestro (4)

5) May December (5)

Comment: Seem to be locked: Oppy for Best Picture, Nolan/Direction, Randolph/Supporting Actress, Downey for Supporting Actor and new to the "locked" category, Anatomy of a Fall for Original Screenplay.  The Holdovers seems to have lost steam in the past couple of weeks in its bid for Original Screenplay.

Too close to call: Lead Acting races between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone as well as Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti.  At the moment I am currently giving the edge to Gladstone and Murphy due to SAG Awards wins.  Also to close to call is Adapted Screenplay.  It has been a three horse race but American Fiction and Barbie seem to have created a little separation from Oppenheimer.

Currently I have TFF films winning in two of these eight categories: Da'Vine Joy Randolph/The Holdovers and Anatomy of a Fall for Original Screenplay.

Final predictions for these categories will be posted on Oscar morning, March 10th in a special MTFB post.

 

CAROL DODA HAS A TRAILER

Picturehouse has dropped a Red Band trailer for the TFF #50 Documentary Carol Doda: Topless at the Condor.  That became available on Tuesday.  Here it is from YouTube:

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Da'Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers from NPR.

Producer Ed Guiney for Poor Things from The Hollywood Reporter.

Producer James Wilson for The Zone of Interest from The Hollywood Reporter.

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MTFB Oscar Update: International, Documentary and Animated Features and Song / What the Experts Are Saying / Interviews and Profiles: Scott, Mescal, Glazer and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: INTERNATIONAL, DOCUMENTARY,  ANIMEATED FEATURES AND SONG

In this post I'm continuing my first "educated" set of predictions for who/what will win on Oscar night, March 10th.  The focus for this post is initial projections for the International. Documentary, and Animated Feature races as well Best Original Song.  As always TFF films are in Bold.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) The Zone of Interest/United Kingdom

2) Society of the Snow/Spain

3) The Teachers' Lounge/Germany

4) Perfect Days/Japan

5) Io Capitano/Italy

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) 20 Days in Mariupol

2) Bobi Wine: The People's President

3) Four Daughters

4) The Eternal Memory

5) To Kill a Tiger

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse

2) The Boy and the Heron

3) Elemental

4) Nimona

5) Robot Dreams

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) What Was I Made For?/Barbie

2) I'm Just Ken/Barbie

3) It Never Went Away/American Symphony

4) Whazhazhe/Killers of the Flower Moon

5) The Fire Inside/Flamin' Hot

Comment: Of the five TFF nominees from this group of categories only The Zone of Interest looks like a winner.  

At the moment the closest of these four categories looks to be Original Song where the two tunes from Barbie appear to be slugging it out.  It does beg the question of whether the two songs might split enough votes that something else sneaks in for the win.

WHAT THE EXPERTS ARE SAYING

I've decided for each post between now and the Oscars to share where some of the top Oscarologists are in terms of predicting the 23 category winners. Today I'm sharing the publicly posted current predictions from Variety's Clayton Davis and The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg.  as with my predictions above, TFF films are in Bold.

From Clayton Davis...the current predictions have Oppenheimer winning eight Oscars.

Oppenheimer (8): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score and Sound.

The Holdovers (2): Best Actor and Supporting Actress.

Poor Things (2): Production Design and Costumes.

Single wins for:

Killers of the Flower Moon: Best Actress.

Barbie: Best Song (What Was I Made For?)

Anatomy of a Fall: Best Original Screenplay.

The Zone of Interest: Best International Feature.

Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse: Best Animated Feature.

20 Days in Mariupol: Best Documentary Feature.

Maestro: Best Makeup/Hair.

The Creator: Best Visual Effects.

The Last Repair Shop: Best Documentary Short.

Letter to a Pig: Best Animated Short.

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar: Best Live Action Short.

If Clayton nails it, TFF films snag seven Oscar wins.

Here's the link to Clayton's predictions.

Meanwhile, Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter is currently predicting the same category wins for Oppenheimer that Davis has.

Oppenheimer (8): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay. Cinematography, Editing, Score and Sound.

The Holdovers (3): Best Actor, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay.

Barbie (3): Costumes, Song (What Was I Made For?), and Production Design.

Single wins for:

Poor Things: Best Actress.

The Zone of Interest: Best International Feature.

Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse: Best Animated Feature.

Bobi Wine: The People's President: Best Documentary Feature.

Maestro: Best Makeup/Hair.

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3: Best Visual Effects.

War Is Over: Best Animated Short.

The ABC's of Book Burning: Best Documentary Short.

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar: Best Live Action Short.

If Feinberg is 100% accurate, TFF films earn six Oscar wins.

Here's the link to Scott's predictions.

INETRVIEWS AND PROFILES: 

Behind the scenes of Poor Things from On the red Carpet via YouTube.

Composer Jerskin Fendrix for Poor Things from Gold Derby.

Writer/Director Jonathan Glazer behind the scenes of The Zone of Interest from A24 on X.

Producer James Wilson on The Zone of Interest from Gold Derby.

Andrew Scott and Paul Mescal for All of Us Strangers from Pop Culture Confidential.

Writer/Director Lila Aviles for Totem from The Los Angeles Times.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Picture, Direction and Lead Acting / Clip from Totem / Interviews and Profiles

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: FIRST WINNER PREDICTIONS: PICTURE, DIRECTION, LEAD ACTING

Here's my first "educated" set of predictions for who/what will win on Oscar night, March 10th.  TFF films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Oppenheimer

2) The Holdovers

3) Poor Things

4) American Fiction

5) Barbie

6) Killers of the Flower Moon

7) Anatomy of a Fall

8) The Zone of Interest

9) Maestro

10) Past Lives

Comment: It looks like, as has seemed true for months, that Best Picture is Oppenheimer's to lose.  I had thought that if The Holdovers could have gotten nominations for Payne, Sessa and Editing that we might have a real race.  With that scenario not coming to fruition it doesn't feel like any film is going to catch Oppy.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Christopher  Nolan/Oppenheimer

2) Yorgos Lanthimos/Poor Things

3) Martin Scorsese/Killers of the flower Moon

4) Justine Triet/Anatomy of a Fall

5) Jonathan Glazer/The Zone of Interest

Comment: If anything, Nolan has a tighter grip on this Oscar than Oppy has on Best Picture.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Lily Gladstone/Killers of the Flower Moon

2) Emma Stone/Poor Things

3) Sandra Huller/Anatomy of a Fall

4) Annette Bening/Nyad

5) Carey Mulligan/Maestro

Comment: Where Best and Direction seem foregone conclusions, this race is, at the moment, a barn-burner.  It really could go either way.  For the moment I gave Gladstone winning by the slimmest of margins.

BEST ACTOR

1) Paul Giamatti/The Holdovers

2) Cillian Murphy/Oppenheimer

3) Bradley Cooper/Maestro

4) Jeffrey Wright/American Fiction

5) Colman Domingo/Rustin

Comment: Giamatti is looking strong but Murphy is certainly still in play.

TFF films with 12 nominations in theses six categories and a projected win for Best Actor.

Next post: Supporting Acting and Screenplays. 

CLIP FROM TOTEM

Janus Films has released a clip from Mexico's entry for Oscar's International Feature award.  Totem, however, did not make the list of five nominees announced last week.  Here's the clip from YouTube:

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Writer/Director Lila Aviles for Totem from Inocinema.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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