Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
We're down to less than three weeks before they open the envelopes on March 10th. Here's is my latest update on the predicted winners in the "Big Eight" of the 23 Oscar categories. Today's listing also includes a film/performers previous MTFB rank to the right in parentheses. TFF films are indicated in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) Oppenheimer (1)
2) Poor Things (2)
3) The Holdovers (3)
4) Anatomy of a Fall (6)
5) American Fiction (7)
6) Killers of the Flower Moon (4)
7) Barbie (5)
8) The Zone of Interest (8)
9) Maestro (9)
10) Past Lives (10)
BEST DIRECTION
1) Christopher Nolan/Oppenheimer (1)
2) Yorgos Lanthimos/Poor Things (2)
3) Martin Scorsese/Killers of the Flower Moon (3)
4) Jonathan Glazer/The Zone of Interest (4)
5) Justine Triet/Anatomy of a Fall (5)
BEST ACTRESS
1) Lily Gladstone/Killers of the Flower Moon (1)
2) Emma Stone/Poor Things (2)
3) Sandra Huller/Anatomy of a Fall (3)
4) Annette Bening/Nyad (4)
5) Carey Mulligan/Maestro (5)
BEST ACTOR
1) Cillian Murphy/Oppenheimer (2)
2) Paul Giamatti/The Holdovers (1)
3) Bradley Cooper/Maestro (3)
4) Jeffrey Wright/American Fiction (4)
5) Colman Domingo/Rustin (5)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Da'Vine Joy Randolph/The Holdovers (1)
2) Emily Blunt/Oppenheimer (2)
3) America Ferrera/Barbie (4)
4) Danielle Brooks/The Color Purple (3)
5) Jodie Foster/Nyad (3)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Robert Downey, Jr./Oppenheimer (1)
2) Ryan Gosling/Barbie (2)
3) Mark Ruffalo/Poor Things (3)
4) Robert DeNiro/Killers of the Flower Moon (4)
5) Sterling K. Brown/American Fiction (5)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) American Fiction (3)
2) Barbie (2)
3) Oppenheimer (1)
4) Poor Things (4)
5) The Zone of Interest (5)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Anatomy of a Fall (1)
2) The Holdovers (2)
3) Past Lives (3)
4) Maestro (4)
5) May December (5)
Comment: Seem to be locked: Oppy for Best Picture, Nolan/Direction, Randolph/Supporting Actress, Downey for Supporting Actor and new to the "locked" category, Anatomy of a Fall for Original Screenplay. The Holdovers seems to have lost steam in the past couple of weeks in its bid for Original Screenplay.
Too close to call: Lead Acting races between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone as well as Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti. At the moment I am currently giving the edge to Gladstone and Murphy due to SAG Awards wins. Also to close to call is Adapted Screenplay. It has been a three horse race but American Fiction and Barbie seem to have created a little separation from Oppenheimer.
Currently I have TFF films winning in two of these eight categories: Da'Vine Joy Randolph/The Holdovers and Anatomy of a Fall for Original Screenplay.
Final predictions for these categories will be posted on Oscar morning, March 10th in a special MTFB post.
CAROL DODA HAS A TRAILER
Picturehouse has dropped a Red Band trailer for the TFF #50 Documentary Carol Doda: Topless at the Condor. That became available on Tuesday. Here it is from YouTube:
MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: FIRST WINNER PREDICTIONS: PICTURE, DIRECTION, LEAD ACTING
Here's my first "educated" set of predictions for who/what will win on Oscar night, March 10th. TFF films are in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) Oppenheimer
2) The Holdovers
3) Poor Things
4) American Fiction
5) Barbie
6) Killers of the Flower Moon
7) Anatomy of a Fall
8) The Zone of Interest
9) Maestro
10) Past Lives
Comment: It looks like, as has seemed true for months, that Best Picture is Oppenheimer's to lose. I had thought that if The Holdovers could have gotten nominations for Payne, Sessa and Editing that we might have a real race. With that scenario not coming to fruition it doesn't feel like any film is going to catch Oppy.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Christopher Nolan/Oppenheimer
2) Yorgos Lanthimos/Poor Things
3) Martin Scorsese/Killers of the flower Moon
4) Justine Triet/Anatomy of a Fall
5) Jonathan Glazer/The Zone of Interest
Comment: If anything, Nolan has a tighter grip on this Oscar than Oppy has on Best Picture.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Lily Gladstone/Killers of the Flower Moon
2) Emma Stone/Poor Things
3) Sandra Huller/Anatomy of a Fall
4) Annette Bening/Nyad
5) Carey Mulligan/Maestro
Comment: Where Best and Direction seem foregone conclusions, this race is, at the moment, a barn-burner. It really could go either way. For the moment I gave Gladstone winning by the slimmest of margins.
BEST ACTOR
1) Paul Giamatti/The Holdovers
2) Cillian Murphy/Oppenheimer
3) Bradley Cooper/Maestro
4) Jeffrey Wright/American Fiction
5) Colman Domingo/Rustin
Comment: Giamatti is looking strong but Murphy is certainly still in play.
TFF films with 12 nominations in theses six categories and a projected win for Best Actor.
Next post: Supporting Acting and Screenplays.
CLIP FROM TOTEM
Janus Films has released a clip from Mexico's entry for Oscar's International Feature award. Totem, however, did not make the list of five nominees announced last week. Here's the clip from YouTube:
INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES
Writer/Director Lila Aviles for Totem from Inocinema.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
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The Screen Actors Guild and the Directors Guild of America announced their nominees for excellence in film in 2023 yesterday. Four TFF films received nominations from SAG for acting excellence totaling seven nominations:
The Holdovers: Paul Giamatti-Lead Actor, Da'Vine Joy Randolph-Supporting Actress.
Poor Things: Emma Stone-Lead Actress and Willem Dafoe-Supporting Actor
Nyad: Annette Bening-Lead Actress and Jodie Foster-Supporting Actress
Rustin: Colman Domingo-Lead Actor
I was surprised that Mark Ruffalo was not nominated for Poor Things and that PT also missed for Best Ensemble.
Meanwhile, the Directors' Guild also announced their five nominees yesterday and two TFFers made the list of five names. Alexander Payne for The Holdovers and Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things were each nominated. They were joined Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) and Greta Gerwig (Barbie).
The Sag Awards will be presented on Feb. 24th and the DGA will announce their winners on Feb. 10th.
The Producers Guils announces their nominees tomorrow.
MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE
Today I'm updating the Screenplay, International Feature, Documentary Feature, Cinematography and Editing categories. As usual TFF #50 films are in Bold. A film's previous position on the MTFB Oscar chart is listed in parentheses.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) The Holdovers (1)
2) Past Lives (3)
3) Anatomy of a Fall (4)
4) May December (5)
5) Maestro (-)
Alternates: Air, Saltburn, The Iron Claw.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Oppenheimer (1)
2) Poor Things (3)
3) American Fiction (2)
4) Barbie (-)
5) Killers of the Flower Moon (4)
Alternates: All of Us Strangers, The Zone of Interest, and Are You There God, It's Me Margaret.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
1) American Symphony (1)
2) 20 Days in Mariupol (2)
3) Beyond Utopia (3)
4) Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (4)
5) Four Daughters (5)
Alternates: The Eternal Memory, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project and Stamped from the Beginning.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
1) The Zone of Interest (1)
2) Society of the Snow (3)
3) The Taste of Things (2)
4) The Teachers' Lounge (4)
5) Fallen Leaves (5)
Alternates: Perfect Days, 20 Days in Mariupol and Totem.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) Oppenheimer (1)
2) Killers of the Flower Moon (2)
3) Poor Things (3)
4) Maestro (4)
5) The Zone of Interest (5)
Alternates: Saltburn, Barbie and The Color Purple.
Here's MTFB's Oscar Update. As we move to within a month of nomination announcements I am consolidating categories for each post. Today I'm updating the Best Picture, Direction and Acting categories. As usual TFF #50 films are in Bold. A film's previous position on the MTFB Oscar chart is listed in parentheses.
BEST PICTURE
1) Oppenheimer (1)
2) Barbie (2)
3) Killers of the Flower Moon (4)
4) Poor Things (5)
5) The Holdovers (6)
6) American Fiction (3)
7) Maestro (7)
8) Past Lives (8)
9) Anatomy of a Fall (-)
10) The Zone of Interest (10)
Alternates: The Color Purple, Air and May December.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Christopher Nolan/Oppenheimer (1)
2) Martin Scorsese/Killer of the Flower Moon (2)
3) Yorgos Lanthimos/Poor Things (4)
4) Greta Gerwig/Barbie (3)
5) Jonathan Glazer/The Zone of Interest (-)
Alternates: Bradley Cooper/Maestro, Alexander Payne/The Holdovers and Celine Song/Past Lives.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Lily Gladstone/Killers of the Flower Moon (1)
2) Emma Stone/Poor Things (2)
3) Carey Mulligan/Maestro (3)
4) Sandra Huller/Anatomy of a Fall (4)
5) Margot Robbie/Barbie (-)
Alternates: Greta Lee/Past Lives, Annette Bening/Nyad and Fantasia Barrino/The Color Purple.
BEST ACTOR
1) Bradley Cooper/Maestro (1)
2) Paul Giamatti/The Holdovers (3)
3) Cillian Murphy/Oppenheimer (2)
4) Jeffrey Wright/American Fiction (5)
5) Leonardo DiCaprio/ Killers of the Flower Moon (-)
Alternates: Colman Domingo/Rustin, Andrew Scott/All of Us Strangers and Barry Keoghan/Saltburn.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Da'Vine Joy Randolph/The Holdovers (1)
2) Danielle Brooks/The Color Purple (2)
3) Emily Blunt/Oppenheimer (3)
4) Jodie Foster/Nyad (5)
5) Julianne Moore/May December (4)
Alternates: America Ferrera/Barbie, Rosamund Pike/Saltburn and Sandra Huller/The Zone of Interest.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Ryan Gosling/Barbie (2)
2) Robert Downey, Jr./Oppenheimer (1)
3) Mark Ruffalo/Poor Things (3)
4) Robert DeNiro/Killers of the Flower Moon (4)
5) Charles Melton/May December (5)
Alternates: Willem Dafoe/Poor Things,Dominic Sessa/The Holdovers, Sterling K. Brown/American Fiction.
From these six categories, here's how TFF films are predicted:
Poor Things with four nominations and one other possibility: Picture, Direction, Actress (Stone) and Supporting actor (Ruffalo), Willem Dafoe is the added possibility for Supporting Actor.
The Holdovers with three nominations and two other possibilities: Picture, Actor (Giamatti), Supporting Actress (Randolph). The other two possibilities are Direction and Supporting Actor (Sessa).
The Zone of Interest with two nominations and an added possibility: Picture, Direction and a possible shot at Supporting Actress (Huller).
Anatomy of a Fall with two nominations: Picture and actress (Huller).
Nyad with one nomination and one other possibility. The nomination for Supporting Actress (Foster) and the possibility for Lead Actress (Bening).
Saltburn with no nominations but possible in two categories: Actor (Keoghan) and Supporting Actress (Pike).
All of Us Strangers possible for Actor (Scott).
Rustin possible for Actor(Colman).
Thursday's categories to be updated will be Screenplays, International Film, Documentary Feature, Cinematography and Editing.
THE OSCAR SHORT LISTS AND TFF
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced the Oscar Shortlists for 10 categories on Thursday. Those 10 categories: Documentary Feature, Documentary Short, International Feature, Makeup and Hair Styling, Original Score, Original Song, Animated Short, Live Action Short, Sound and Visual Effects.
Making the short list in these ten categories means that a film is eligible for nomination in them.
Here's where TFF films landed on the various lists:
Poor Things, The Zone of Interest and American Symphony each made it to three of the lists.
Poor Things: Score, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.
The Zone of Interest: International Feature, Score and Sound.
American Symphony: Documentary Feature, Score and Song.
No other TFF films made multiple lists but 18 other TFF films were shortlisted in various categories. Most impressive was in the International Feature category which had nine TFF films listed. In addition to the above mentioned The Zone of Interest these films also made that shortlist:
The Monk and the Gun
The Promised Land
Fallen Leaves
The Taste of Things
The Teachers' Lounge
Godland (from TFF #49)
Perfect Days
Totem.
In addition to American Symphony three other TFF docs made that shortlist:
Beyond Utopia
Bobi Wine: Ghetto President (TFF #49)
Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy (TFF #49)
In addition to Poor Things and American Symphony, two TFF films are also on the shortlist for Best Score:
The Holdovers
Saltburn
Three TFF films made the Documentary Shortlist:
If Dreams Were Lightning
The Last Repair Shop
Last Song from Kabul
And finally 27 made it to the Animated Short List and Strange Way of Life made it onto the Live Action Short list.
In all 27 TFF films are still alive in these 10 categories. Nominations are announced on Jan. 23rd.
In a surprise move, Telluride's Silver Medallion that was to have been presented last Labor Day weekend to actress Annette Bening will, instead be presented at a special event in Los Angeles on January 6th.
Bening, like most actors, was unable to attend TFF #50 due to the SAG/Aftra Strike that was ongoing at the time of the fest.
The Hollywood Reporter, among other outlets, reports that the event will include a career retrospective complete with clips from Bening's films as well as moderation from her Nyad co-star Jodie Foster. Meg Ryan will present the Silver Medallion.
MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS PLUS ANIMATED FEATURE AND PRODUCTION DESIGN
Here's your Oscar Update for today's post. This is a check on predicted nominees for the Screenplay categories. They were last posted here on Dec. 4th. Previous positions on the MTFB Oscar Update Chart are listed to the right in parentheses. I have also included my first predictions for Best Animated Feature and Production Design. As always TFF films are Bold.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) The Holdovers (1)
2) Barbie (2)
3) Past Lives (3)
4) Anatomy of a Fall (5)
5) Maestro (4)
Alternates: May December,Air, Saltburn.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Oppenheimer (1)
2) American Fiction (3)
3) Poor Things (2)
3) American Fiction (3)
4) Killers of the Flower Moon (4)
5) All of Us Strangers (5)
Alternates: The Zone of Interest, Are You There God, It's Me Margaret and The Color Purple.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1) Spiderman: Across the Spiderverse
2) The Boy and the Heron
3) Elemental
4) Nimona
5) Wish
Alternates: Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem and Super Mario Bros. Movie.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) Poor Things
2) Barbie
3) Oppenheimer
4) Killers of the Flower Moon
5) Maestro
Alternates: Asteroid City, The Color Purple and Napoleon
NEW YORK FILM CRTICS ONLINE AND TFF
The NYFCO announced their choices for the best film work of 2023 on Friday. TFF was fairly well represented with three films making their Top Ten of the Year list: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers and Poor Things. Those three films also earned some individual mention.
Anatomy of a Fall was named thrice for Best International Film, Best Actress for Sandra Huller and Best Screenplay. The Holdover's Da'Vine Joy Randolph was named Best Supporting Actress while Poor Things' Mark Ruffalo earned honors as Best Supporting Actor.
Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer was named in four categories, the most of any film> Direction, Actor, Ensemble and Cinematography but not Best Picture which NYFCO awarded to Martin Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon.
Here's your Oscar Update for today's post. This is a check on predicted nominees for the Lead Acting categories. They were last posted here on Nov. 23rd. Previous positions on the MTFB Oscar Update is listed to the right in parentheses. As always TFF films are Bold.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Emma Stone/Poor Things (1)
2) Lily Gladstone/Killers of the Flower Moon (2)
3) Carey Mulligan/Maestro (3)
4) Annette Bening/Nyad (5)
5) Sandra Huller/Anatomy of a Fall (-)
Alternates: Margot Robbie/Barbie, Fantasia Barrino/The Color Purple, Natalie Portman/May December.
BEST ACTOR
1) Bradley Cooper/Maestro (1)
2) Cillian Murphy/Oppenheimer (2)
3) Paul Giamatti/The Holdovers (3)
4) Colman Domingo/Rustin (4)
5) Jeffrey Wright/American Fiction
Alternates: Leonardo DiCaprio/Killers of the Flower Moon, Andrew Scott/All of Us Strangers and Zac Efron/The Iron Claw.
THR'S 30 FILMS FOR BEST PICTURE
I stumbled across this article from The Hollywood Reporter over the weekend. It was posted/published a couple of weeks back. I'm not really sure how I missed it, but I did. Anyway, THR's Tyler Coates has put together a list of 30 films because, as the article says:
"These films are at the front of the race to the Dolby Theatre — a list that includes box office smashes, festival darlings and critical favorites."
From the list, here are the TFF films that Coates suggests are "in play":
All of Us Strangers
Anatomy of a Fall
The Bikeriders (though this looks likely to be released in 2024 now)
Here's your Oscar Update for today's post. This is a check on predicted nominees for the Lead Acting categories. They were last posted here on Oct. 23rd. Previous positions on the MTFB Oscar Update is listed to the right in parentheses. As always TFF films are Bold.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Emma Stone/Poor Things (1)
2) Lily Gladstone/Killers of the Flower Moon (2)
3) Carey Mulligan/Maestro (3)
4) Margot Robbie/Barbie (4)
5) Annette Bening/Nyad (5)
Alternates: Sandra Huller/Anatomy of a Fall, Natalie Portman/May December and Fantasia Barrino/The Color Purple
BEST ACTOR
1) Bradley Cooper/Maestro (2)
2) Cillian Murphy/Oppenheimer (1)
3) Paul Giamatti/The Holdovers (4)
4) Colman Domingo/Rustin (3)
5) Leonardo DiCaprio/Killers of the Flower Moon (5)
Alternates: Jeffrey Wright/American Fiction, Andrew Scott/All of Us Strangers and Barry Keoghan/Saltburn.
ACADEMY CONVERSATION FOR NYAD
From AMPAS and YouTube here is an Academy Conversation with Nyad directors Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin:
TFF FILMS AND CRITICS CHOICE DOC AWARDS
Two TFF #50 films scored wins last night at the Critics Choice Documentary Awards. Matt Heineman's American Symphony, which focuses on the lives of Jon Batiste and Suleika Jaouad, was winner for Best Musical Doc and Best Score. The Short Doc winner also came from Telluride and that was Kris Bowers and Ben Proudfoot's The Last Repair Shop.
The big winner of the night was Davis Guggenheim's Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie. That film nabbed five awards including Best Documentary Feature.
News this past week that TFF #50 entrant Food Inc. 2 has been acquired for distribution by Magnolia Pictures. The documentary is a sequel to 2008's Oscar nominated doc Food Inc. The director of the original film, Robert Kenner is joined for the sequel by co-director Melissa Robledo.
Here's MTFB's first Oscar Update for the Lead Acting category since the original set of predictions On Sept. 25th.. Today I'm updating the Lead Acting categories. As usual TFF #50 films are in Bold. A film's previous position on the MTFB Oscar chart is listed in parentheses.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Emma Stone/Poor Things (2)
2) Lily Gladstone/Killers of the Flower Moon (1)
3) Carrie Mulligan/Maestro (3)
4) Margot Robbie/Barbie (-)
5) Annette Bening/Nyad (4)
Alternates: Sandra Huller/Anatomy of a Fall, Natalie Portman/May December and Fantasia Barrino/The Color Purple
BEST ACTOR
1) Cillian Murphy/Oppenheimer (1)
2) Bradley Cooper/Maestro (4)
3) Colman Domingo/Rustin (2)
4) Paul Giamatti/The Holdovers (5)
5) Leonardo DiCaprio/Killers of the Flower Moon (3)
Alternates: Jeffrey Wright/American Fiction, Andrew Scott/All of Us Strangers and Barry Keoghan/Saltburn.
Comment: Among the Best Actress category is still seems a death match between any of the top six women. In the Best Actor category-a nice uptick for Cooper and Giamatti.
Oscar nominations will be announced on Jan. 23rd, 2024
TRAILERS: POOR THINGS, NYAD, SALTBURN, RUSTIN
Within a few hours of last Thursday's post distributors/producers for four TFF #50 films released teaser/trailers for their films. I honestly thought about updating Thursday's post with them but that post was already lengthy. So, ultimately I decided to post the trailers in today's regularly scheduled MTFB offering. Here they are from YouTube:
I wrote on Thursday that the SAG-AFTRA strike had been called and that there was some uncertainty about what effect that might have on Telluride and other film festivals. As of this morning's post there really isn't a clear idea yet. I am waiting to see if the first casualty for film fests is that either Toronto or Venice or both alter their announcement plans. Toronto is set to announced their first wave of films on Wednesday and Venice is to follow next week on July 25.
I suspect that most festival-goers are crossing their collective fingers that the strike is settled quickly and festivals can proceed normally. Frankly, I don't think the signs point to a rapid conclusion and past some undefined date the potential for "talent" to be on site to promote their films becomes impossible.
I ran across a good early take on the strike and festivals from Variety's Clayton Davis. Here's the link to that.
Davis writes in part:
"Of all the upcoming festivals, Telluride may be the least impacted by the SAG and WGA strikes. That’s because there are no press conferences and lavish step-and-repeats outside of the various venues around town."
Davis reports later in the post that:
“Telluride will be mostly unaffected,” one studio executive tells Variety. “I can’t say the same for the others.”
There have even been some speculation in the ether that Telluride might end up landing some screenings that might not otherwise have made the trip to Colorado as a result of distribs/studios and producers baling on original plans.
INDIEWIRE REPORTS...NYAD?
Anne Thompson, also writing last Thursday about the effect of SAG-AFTRA'S strike on the upcoming film festivals revealed that Annette Bening was to have been a TFF tribute recipient (and I guess still could be should the strike be settled in time) and that her film Nyad would be a part of the TFF #50 lineup. Nyad was #5 on last week's Ten Bets list.
Thompson also implies that it's likely that Nyad stills screens in Telluride.
From her post:
"Scratch rumored tribute star Annette Bening, star of Netflix release “Nyad.” Directors like Jimmy Chin and E. Chai Vasarhelyi will be carrying the ball at Telluride"
Hardly any hard news about what is purportedly animation master Miyazaki Hayao's final film has been forthcoming over the past few months. I have noted here that Hayao has had a sturdy presence at Telluride over the last couple of decades but consistent indications that his new film would not be playing any festivals has kept me from even considering it for a place among the Ten Best Bets for Telluride or even among the possibilities.
That, however. might be changing.
Variety's Patrick Frater, among others, reported this weekend that U.S. distributor Gkids had acquired what has been known as How Do You Live and will release it in the U.S. under the title The Boy and the Heron.
Even more intriguing was this passage from the reporting:
"Gkids indicated that it would give “The Boy and the Heron” a North American theatrical release “later this year.” The picture is also expected to make appearances at various fall festivals."
My thinking is that if festivals are back in play then Telluride has a very good shot at screening the new film as a part of TFF #50.