MTFB Oscar Update: Lead Acting / THR's 30 Films for Best Picture /Interviews and Profiles

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: LEAD ACTING

Here's your Oscar Update for today's post.  This is a check on predicted nominees for the Lead Acting categories.  They were last posted here on Nov. 23rd.  Previous positions on the MTFB Oscar Update is listed to the right in parentheses.  As always TFF films are Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Emma Stone/Poor Things (1)

2) Lily Gladstone/Killers of the Flower Moon (2)

3) Carey Mulligan/Maestro (3)

4) Annette Bening/Nyad (5)

5) Sandra Huller/Anatomy of a Fall (-)

Alternates: Margot Robbie/Barbie, Fantasia Barrino/The Color Purple, Natalie Portman/May December.

BEST ACTOR

1) Bradley Cooper/Maestro (1)

2) Cillian Murphy/Oppenheimer (2)

3) Paul Giamatti/The Holdovers (3)

4) Colman Domingo/Rustin (4)

5) Jeffrey Wright/American Fiction

Alternates: Leonardo DiCaprio/Killers of the Flower Moon, Andrew Scott/All of Us Strangers and Zac Efron/The Iron Claw.

THR'S 30 FILMS FOR BEST PICTURE

I stumbled across this article from The Hollywood Reporter over the weekend.  It was posted/published a couple of weeks back.  I'm not really sure how I missed it, but I did.  Anyway, THR's Tyler Coates has put together a list of 30 films because, as the article says:

"These films are at the front of the race to the Dolby Theatre — a list that includes box office smashes, festival darlings and critical favorites."

From the list, here are the TFF films that Coates suggests are "in play":

All of Us Strangers

Anatomy of a Fall

The Bikeriders (though this looks likely to be released in 2024 now)

The Holdovers

Nyad

Poor Things

Rustin

Saltburn

The Taste of Things

The Zone of Interest

The complete article is linked here.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Emerald Fennell for Saltburn from Time.com

Cinematographer Robbie Ryan for Poor Things from Awards Watch.

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MTFB Oscar Take: Lead Acting Update / BIFA Nominations and TFF #49 / Visitations: Field, Nighy, Strong and More

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: LEAD ACTING UPDATE

 I am updating predictions in the categories of Best Actress and Best Actor.  These were last predicted on Oct. 24th.  Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses.  Performances from TFF #49 are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Cate Blanchett/TAR (1)

2) Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

3) Michelle Williams/The Fabelmans (3)

4) Daniaelle Deadwyler/Till (4)

5) Olivia Colman/Empire of Light (5)

6) Viola Davis/The Woman King (6)

7) Margot Robbie/Babylon (7)

BEST ACTOR

1) Brendan Fraser/The Whale (1)

2) Colin Ferrell/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

3) Austin Butler/Elvis (3)

4) Bill Nighy/Living (4)

5) Hugh Jackman/The Son (5)

6) Tom Cruise/Top Gun: Maverick (6)

7) Gabrielle LaBelle/The Fabelmans (7)

BIFA NOMINATIONS AND TFF #49

Five films from the TFF #49 lineup earned nominations from the British Independent Film Association this week.

Charlotte Wells' Aftersun lead all films with 16 nominations: Best British Independent Film, Direction, Debut Directing, Joint Lead Performance/Mescal and Corio, Screenplay, Breakthrough Performance/Corio, Debut Screenwriter, Casting, Cinematography, Costume Design, Editing, Original Music, Makeup and Hair, Music Supervision, Sound, Production Design.

Sebastian Lelio's The Wonder also did quite well with 12 nominations: Best British Independent Film, Direction, Screenplay, Lead Performance/Pugh, Ensemble Performance, Breakthrough Performance/Cassidy, Cinematography, Costume Design, Original Music, Makeup and Hair, Sound and Production Design

Oliver Hermanus' Living also had a good day with 9 nominations: Best British Independent Film, Direction, Screenplay, Lead Performance/Nighy, Supporting Performance/Wood, Casting, Costume Design, Music Supervision, Production Design.

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed and Close were nominated for Best International Independent Film.

TFF #49 films totaled 39 nominations.

The complete list of all BIFA nominations is linked here from The Hollywood Reporter.

VISITATIONS

Writer/Director Todd Field talks about TAR with Variety.

Actor Jeremy Strong on Armageddon Time with Indiewire.

Actor Bill Nighy talks Living with Indiewire. 

Sound Designer Mark Mangini on Good Night Oppy with Indiewire.

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Oscar Updates: Director, Actress, Actor

 OSCAR UPDATES: DRIECTOR, ACTRESS, ACTOR

In this post, I catch up on my latest predictions and, for the first time this Oscar season, I include more than one category in a post.  As we get closer to the announcement nominations, it's time to accelerate predictions to begin to include categories beyond the major eight (picture, director, actress, actor, Supporting actress, supporting actor, adapted and original screenplays).  This week's posts (today's and Thursday's) will update the major eight categories and then next week I'll begin to add in some of the others.

BEST DIRECTOR

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Direction updated since I last posted this category on  Dec. 21st.  A director's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 films are indicated in Bold.

1) Chloe Zhao/Nomadland (1)

2) David Fincher/Mank (2)

3) Aaron Sorkin/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (3)

4) Regina King/One Night in Miami (5)

5) Lee Isaac Chung/Minari(4)

6) George C. Wolfe/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (6)

7) Paul Greengrass/News of the World (8)

8) Spike Lee/Da 5 Bloods (9)

9) Florian Zeller/The Father (7)

10) Shaka King/Judas and the Black Messiah (10)

Other Possibles: Emerald Fennell/Promising Young Woman, Darius Marder/Sound of Metal, Christopher Nolan/Tenet, Kelly Reichardt/First Cow (TFF #46)

Hot: Emerald Fennell/Promising Young Woman

Not: Florian Zeller/The Father

BEST ACTRESS

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Actress updated since I last posted this category on  Dec. 24th.  A performer's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 performers are indicated in Bold.

1) Frances McDormand/Nomadland (1)

2) Venessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman (2)

3) Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (3)

4) Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman (4)

5) Andra Day/The United States vs. Billie Holiday (5)

6) Michelle Pfeiffer/French Exit (7)

7) Sidney Flanigan/Never Rarely Sometimes Always (-)

8) Kate Winslet/Ammonite (9)

9) Meryl Streep/The Prom (6)

10) Sophia Loren/The Life Ahead (8)

Other Possibles: Zendaya/Malcolm and Marie, Amy Adams/Hillbilly Elegy, Meryl Streep/Let Them Talk, Nicole Behaire/Miss Juneteenth

Hot: Sidney Flanigan/Never Rarely Sometimes Always, 

Not: Meryl Streep/The Prom, Sophia Loren/The Life Ahead

BEST ACTOR

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Actor updated since I last posted this category on  Dec. 28th.  A performer's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 performers are indicated in Bold.

1) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (1)

2) Anthony Hopkins/The Father (2)

3) Riz Ahmed/Sound of Metal (3)

4) Delroy Londo/Da Five Bloods (4)

5) Steven Yeun/Minari (8)

6) Gary Oldman/Mank (5)

7) Tom Hanks/News of the World (6)

8) Kingsley Ben-Adir/One Night in Miami (7)

9) Ben Affleck/The Way Back (9)

10) LaKeith Stanfield/Judas and the Black Messiah (10)

Other Posssibles: Colin Firth/Supernova, John David Washington/Malcom and Marie

Hot: Steven Yeun/Minari

Not: Gary Oldman/Mank

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Oscar Update: Best Actress / Capri Hollywood Honors Two TFF #47 Films / Where to Watch TFF #47 Films

OSCAR UPDATE: BEST ACTRESS

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Actress updated since I last posted this category on  Nov. 23rd.  A performer's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 performers are indicated in Bold.

1) Frances McDormand/Nomadland (1)

2) Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman (2)

3) Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom(3)

4) Carrie Mulligan/Promising Young Woman (4)

5) Andra Day/The United States vs. Billie Holiday (8)

6) Meryl Streep/The Prom (10)

7) Michelle Pfeiffer/French Exit (7)

8) Sophia Loren/The Life Ahead (5)

9) Kate Winslet/Ammonite (6)

10) Amy Adams/Hillbilly Elegy (9)

Other possibles: Meryl Streep/Let Them Talk, Carrie Coon/The Nest

Hot: Andra Day, Meryl Streep

Not: Sophia Loren, Amy Adams

 The next Oscar Update will focus on Best Actor.

CAPRI HOLLYWOOD HONORS TWO TFF #47 SELECTIONS

It was announced this week that Capri Hollywood-The International Film Festival will honor Michael Dweck and Gregory Kershaw's documentary The Truffle Hunters as well as  Gianfranco Rosi's Notturno.  The Hollywood Reporter ran the story on Dec. 19th.  Both films continue to maintain momentum for potential Oscar consideration

Capri Hollywood will be different this year.  Like many fests, it will be virtual this year.

The complete THR article is linked here.

WHERE TO WATCH TFF #47 FILMS

Telluride Film Festival organizers released information this past week about what platforms, festivals and websites would allow access to the films that were selected for the TFF #47 that might have been.  That list of what is available and where was published at tellurideinside.com

Information also includes theatrical release plans for many of the films on the TFF #47 list.

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Oscar Update: Best Actress / Full Trailer for Your (Bee Gees) Broken Heart / Nomadland Odds and Ends / Never Gonna Snow Again Picked Up by Kino Lorber / Berlin Looming

OSCAR UPDATE: BEST ACTRESS

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Actress updated since I last posted this category on  Oct. 26th.  A performer's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 performers are indicated in Bold.

UPDATE: BEST ACTRESS

1) Frances McDormand/Nomdaland (2)

2) Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman (3)

3) Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (1)

4) Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman (5)

5) Sophia Loren/The Life Ahead (9)

6) Kate Winslet/Ammonite (7)

7) Michelle Pfeiffer/French Exit (8)

8) Andra Day/The People (10)

9) Amy Adams/Hillbilly Elegy (6)

10) Meryl Streep/The Prom (-)

Others: Elizabeth Moss/Invisible Woman, Sienna Miller/ Wander Darkly

Hot: Vanessa Kirby, Sophia Loren, Andra Day, Meryl Streep

Not: Michelle Pfeiffer, Amy Adams

Notes:  Currently the top three candidates are bunched very tightly and are all looking like locks.  The rest of the filed for the final two nominations is also tightly bunched but way, way back of McDormand, Kirby and Davis.

FULL TRAILER FOR YOUR (BEE GEES) BROKEN HEART

HBO Max dropped a new full length trailer for the Frank Marshall documentary The Bee Gees: How Do You Mend a Broken Heart this past weekend.  This follows up a teaser that I had here back on Nov. 2nd.

Here's the look at the new 2 1/2 minute trailer from YouTube:

NOMADLAND ODDS AND ENDS

Chloe Zhao's Nomadland won a big honor this week within the craft of cinematography at the EnergaCamerimage Film Festival Golden Frog Award as well as FIPRESCI Jury Prize honors.  The fest honors the best in international cinematography each year.  Joker won the Golden Frog last year.

I have linked coverage of the full scope of the awards from Variety here.

Meanwhile, Tom Bruggemann, writing for Indiewire, had an interesting article up this week about how Searchlight has taken something of a traditionalist approach (if such a thing is even imaginable in the age of Covid-19) to the Awards campaign for Nomadland.

The film is thought to be strong contender for nominations for Picture, Director (Zhao), Actress (McDormand), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Film Editing with outside shots for Supporting Actress (Swankie) and Supporting Actor (Stratharin).

Here's Bruggemann's article.

NEVER GONNA SNOW AGAIN PICKED UP BY KINO LORBER

Polish feature, Never Gonna Snow Again, a selection for what would have been TFF #47 as well as Poland's submission for consideration for Best International Feature, has been acquired for North American distribution by Kino Lorber.

The film was a Venice premiere where it won the Premio Fondazione Fai Persona Lavoro Ambiente Award.  It was also screened as a pert of the BFI London Film Festival among others.

Never Gonna Snow Again was directed by Małgorzata Szumowska and co-directed by Michał Englert.  It is described by IMDb:

"Zhenia, a Russian-speaking immigrant from the East works as a masseur in Poland and becomes a guru-like figure in a wealthy gated community where his clients live."

I have linked the announcement of acquisition news here from Screen Daily.

BERLIN LOOMING

Organizers of the Berlin Film Festival have announced plans for a stripped down but still physical version of the fest.  Deadline reports that the festival is currently dated for Feb. 11-21, 2021.

From the Andreas Wideman/Deadline article:

"A festival spokesperson told us: “The Berlinale still plans to take place as a physical event in February. Press screenings and public screenings will take place, as always, in the cinemas, but access will be possible only with pre-booked tickets for allocated seats."

Berlin often is the premiere festival for a couple of films that ultimately become choices for Telluride.

The complete Deadline article is linked here.

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Oscar History and TFF: Best Actor / Oscar Predictions Update: Best Actress / RIP Robert Forster / Trailer for Tell Me Who I Am

OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: BEST ACTOR

I'm continuing the  breakdown of the history between TFF and The Academy Awards as related to each of the feature categories.  Today is the Best Actor nominees from films that have screened at the festival since its inception in 1974:


1989- Daniel Day Lewis/My Left Foot-WINNER
1990- Jeremy Irons/Reversal of Fortune-WINNER, Gerard Depardieu/Cyrano DeBergerac
1992-Stephen Rea/The Crying Game
1996-Billy Bob Thornton/Sling Blade
1997- Nick Nolte/Affliction
1999- Richard Farnsworth/The Straight Story
2000- Geoffrey Rush/Quills, Sean Penn/Sweet and Lowdown
2003- Bill Murray/Lost in Translation
2005- Philip Seymour Hoffman/Capote-WINNER, Heath Ledger/Brokeback Mountain, Joaquin Phoenix/Walk the Line
2006- Forrest Whitaker/The Last King of Scotland-WINNER, Peter O'Toole/Venus
2007- Daniel Day Lewis/There Will Be Blood-WINNER (scenes screened)
2008- Brad Pitt/The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (scenes screened)
2009- George Clooney/Up in the Air
2010-Colin Firth/The King's Speech-WINNER, James Franco/127 Hours, Javier Bardem/Biutiful
2011- Jean Dujardin/The Artist-WINNER, George Clooney/The Descendants
2013- Bruce Dern/Nebraska, Chiwetel Ejiofor/12 Years a Slave
2014- Michael Keaton/Birdman, Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game, Steve Carell/Foxcatcher
2015- Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs
2016-Casey Affleck-Manchester by the Sea-WINNER, Ryan Gosling/La La Land
2017- Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour-WINNER


Overall 32 Best Actor nominations with eight winners...Daniel Day Lewis twice.


OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: BEST ACTRESS

Here are my current predictions for the Best Actress.  This updates the last Best Actress set of predictions posted on Sept. 19th.  The actresses last prediction position is listed in parentheses.  TFF #46 films are in Bold.

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy (1)
2) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story (2)
3) Cynthia Ervio/Harriet (3)
4)  Awkwafina/The Farewell (4)
5) Lupita N'yongo/Us (-)

Other possibles: Saorise Ronan/Little Women, Alfre Woodard/Clemency, Felicity Jones/The Aeronauts, Charlize Theron/Bombshell


RIP ROBERT FORSTER

Just a brief note on the death of actor Robert Forster.  Like a lot of people who love film, I thought Forster was a solid performer every time I saw him.  I know a lot of folks talk about Pam Grier's star turn in Jackie Brown but I always thought Forster in his comeback role in the film (thanks to Tarantino's choice to cast him) was, perhaps, the more impressive.

Forster, to the best of my ability to discern, appeared in two films that screened at TFFs.  Alexander Payne's The Descendants (2011) and David Lynch's 2001 masterpiece Mulholland Drive.

Like a lot of you, I had just watched El Camino and found out hours later that Forster was gone.  Seemed like an odd coincidence and...btw...he's great in it.
Forster was 78.

TRAILER FOR TELL ME WHO I AM

Netflix released a trailer in the middle of the last week for the TFF #46 documentary Tell Me Who I Am from director Ed Perkins.  The doc focuses on the story of identical twins one of which has survived a terrible motorcycle accident and awakes from a coma with no memory.

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

Tell Me Who I Am will appear on Netflix on Friday.

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Telluride and Oscar Part Three: Best Actress / A Date for A Hidden Life / Bacurau Is Acquired

Happy Independence Day everyone...


TELLURIDE AND OSCAR PART THREE: BEST ACTRESS

Best Actress Oscar winner Emma Stone (La La Land TFF #43)

Picking up where I left off Tuesday, I'm continuing an eight part series of articles tracing the connection between films that have played Telluride's Film Fest and the eight "major" Oscar categories.

Tuesday I looked at T-ride and the Best Director nominees from the past 14 years.  Today it's Best Actress.  Here are the actresses that played films at TFF since 2005 who were Oscar nominated as leading actresses.  Additionally, if that actress won it is indicated with ***.


2005: Reese Witherspoon/Walk the Line***
2006: Kate Winslet/Little Children, Penelope Cruz/Volver
2007: Ellen Page/Juno, Laura Linney/The Savages
2008: No nominees
2009: Carey Mulligan/An Education, Helen Mirren/The Last Station
2010: Natalie Portman/Black Swan***
2011: Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs
2012: Emanuelle Riva/Amour
2013: Sandra Bullock/Gravity
2014: Marion Cotillard/Two Days One Night, Reese Witherspoon/Wild
2015: Brie Larson/Room***, Charlotte Rampling/45 Years, Cate Blanchett/Carol
2016: Emma Stone/La La Land***
2017: Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water, Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
2018: Olivia Colman/The Favourite***, Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Yalitza Aparicio/Roma


Notes: For Best Actress 22 nominations over these 14 years (to the best of my ability, I believe Jane Alexander was the first Best Actress nominee from a TFF film.  That came in 1983 for Testament).  Over the 14 years, five women of Telluride have won the trophy.

It does feel like the festival has gained some traction as a Best Actress launchpad over the last five fests (2014-18) with half the nominees and three of the five wins coming during that span.

2015 and 2018 were the strongest Best Actress years with three nominees coming from TFF films in both of those years.

Next Tuesday: time to look at Best Actor.


A DATE FOR A HIDDEN LIFE

Although I have continued to soft pedal its chances to play at Telluride, a recently announced released date for Terrence Malick's A Hidden Life continues to make it a possibility.

Multiple sources including Deadline and World of Reel reported last weekend that the Malick film will be released in the U.S. on Dec. 13th.  smack in the middle of awards season.  That's consistent with what had been reported earlier that Fox Searchlight would be proceeding with a strong awards push for the film.

The Dec. 13th date would allow Malick to play Telluride, Toronto, New York, London and/or AFI.  It's Cannes premiere means that no Venice play is in its future.

A Hidden Life tells the true story of an Austrian conscientious objector during WWII.



BACURAU IS ACQUIRED

Specialty distributor Kino Lorber added Cannes award winner Bacurau from Brazilian film makers Kleber Mendonca Filho and Juliano Dornelles to their stable of films.

I took a brief look at Kino Lorber's Telluride chances in my post on June 28th and concluded that, at that time, KL had another Cannes film, Synonyms, that had a 50/50 chance of making the TFF #45 lineup.

Bacurau's acquisition by Kino Lorber definitely raises its profile for Telluride with the asterisk that Variety reports that the film is currently set for 2020...which isn't a complete disqualifier.

Give Bacurau a 30% chance of making this year's program.

Here's the story from Variety



That's all for this 4th of July.  More on Friday including a new Ten Bets!

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Updated Oscar Predictions: Best Actress and Actor / Can You Ever Forgive Me? Emerges / Destroyer Has a Trailer / The Favourite Categorized

Good Thursday Film Friends...


UPDATED OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTRESS AND BEST ACTOR

Here are my latest thoughts for the Lead Acting categories.  Each individual's position in my last predictions is in parentheses.  Those from TFF #45 films are Bold.


BEST ACTRESS

1) Glenn Close/The Wife (1)
2) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born (2)
3) Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3)
4) Olivia Colman/The Favourite (4)
5) Viola Davis/Widows (-)

Others: Yalitza Aparicio/Roma, Julia Roberts/Ben Is Back, Toni Collette/Hereditary, Nicole Kidman/Destroyer


BEST ACTOR

1) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born (1)
2) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book (2)
3) Ryan Gosling/First Man (3)
4) Christian Bale/Vice (-)
5) Lucas Hedges/Boy Erased (4)

Others: Hugh Jackman/The Front Runner, Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody, Ethan Hawke/First Reformed***, Lucas Hedges/Ben Is Back, John David Washington/BlacKkKlansman

***Played TFF #44

And, by the by, you might look for the a new Gurus of Gold at Movie City News tomorrow.  It will be my second contribution as a "Guru".


CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? EMERGES

The fantastic Can You Ever Forgive Me? gets its U.S. release tomorrow.  The film was well received at TFF #45 finishing as the #5 film in The Composite Ratings for MTFB.  It was #5 among the Pros and #8 in The People's Telluride.

With the film's release, as you'd expect, has been a focus in media circles this week on it and its star Melissa McCarthy.

I have linked a couple of the profiles that have her appeared about her this week from:

The Hollywood Reporter

Indiewire

I am currently predicting McCarthy to earn her second Oscar nomination for her work in the film as real life forger Lee Daniels.  I also think the film will be nominated for Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay and Richard E. Grant getting a nomination for Best Supporting Actor.

Here's the trailer for it from YouTube:

DESTROYER HAS A TRAILER

Annapurna Pictures has released a trailer for Karyn Kusama's gritty detective drama Destroyer starring a nearly unrecognizable Nicole Kidman who is likely to be a part of the Best Actress conversation for the role.

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

Destroyer is currently slated to open domestically on Dec. 25th.

THE FAVOURITE CATEGORIZED

 After a good deal of consternation and speculation Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter tells us this week that the acting categorization for Awards consideration for the three ladies of Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite have been determined.

Feinberg reports that Olivia Colman, who plays England's Queen Anne in the film, will be the lone consideration for the Lead Actress category with both Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz competing in the Best Supporting Actress Category.

Feinberg also reports on a number of other categorization decisions that have been made as we get ready to swing into the full awards season melee.

Feinberg's article can be found here.


That's MTFB for this Thursday.  I'll have another post on Monday in which I will update Oscar predictions for the supporting acting categories.  And don't forget to take a peek at Movie City News and the new Gurus of Gold post tomorrow.


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Special to the FAC: Best Actress

SPECIAL TO THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE: BEST ACTRESS 17 DAYS OUT

The FAC takes a snapshot look at individual categories using the predictive resources of:

Awards Daily (Sasha Stone)

Incontention.com (Kristopher Tapley at HitFix)

The Hollywood Reporter (Scott Feinberg)

Entertainment Weekly (Dave Karger)

Hollywood Elsewhere (Jeffrey Wells)

Thompson on Hollywood (Anne Thompson)

Film Misery

Film Experience

Awards Circuit

IS THE RACE FOR THE FIVE NOMINATIONS ALREADY OVER?

Crunching the Best Actress numbers in the last two days and you find that the five women listed below in the top five spots are pretty overwhelmingly out in front of the rest of the “contender” pack.  As a matter of fact, Anne Thompson at Thompson on Hollywood (Indiewire) lists these five and no one else even as being a possible contender.  That’s bold, but gives you an idea that a good portion of the Oscar punditry thinks that the top five are already locked in.

Here they are with Telluride #38 actresses in bold.

1) Viola Davis/The Help

2) Meryl Streep/The Iron Lady

3) Michele Williams/My Week with Marilyn

4) Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs

5) Tilda Swinton/We Need to Talk About Kevin

The rest of the prospective field:

6) Charlize Theron/Young Adult

7) Rooney Mara/Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

8) Elizabeth Olsen/Martha Marcy Mae Marlene

9) Felicity Jones/Like Crazy

10) Kristen Wiig/Bridesmaids

Also receiving votes: Olivia Colman/Tyrranosaur, Adepeno Odyue/Pariah, Keira Knightley/A Dangerous Method.

The only real movement since my last big Oscar post on Dec. 21 is the appearance of some sentiment on behalf of Kristen Wiig but, realistically, the top five are seemingly pretty solid with Mara, Theron and maybe Olsen the possible "surprise" nominee if it were to occur.  Most vulnerable?  Actually, I think it might be Glenn Close.

DGA NOMINATIONS TO BE ANNOUNCED MONDAY…Look for our Best Picture Special to the FAC on Sunday…and  Best Director analysis on Monday as a part of our regular posting schedule before the DGA announcement.

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