Special to the FAC: Oscar Odds and a little Albert

Good Morning!

OSCAR ODDS

Two Oscar projections this morning.  The first from The Gold Derby where "The Artist" retains the favorite mantle:
http://www.goldderby.com/odds/index/18#

Also from Entertainment Weekly's Dave Karger who has "The Artist" still at #1 and Clooney still ranked to beat Dujardin despite last weekend's SAG Award:
http://insidemovies.ew.com/2012/01/30/oscar-predictions-jean-dujardin-george-clooney/

And finally, a view from Mark Harris at Grantland detailing some possible anti-Artist scenarios:
http://www.grantland.com/blog/hollywood-prospectus/post/_/id/42402/oscarmetrics-the-sagtermath-and-the-case-against-the-artist

AND ALBERT NOBBS...LEONARD MALTIN'S REVIEW

My Telluride acquaintance Leonard Maltin has his review for "Albert" up over at Movie Crazy.  It sounds a lot like mine for The Playlist from Telluride.  Here's his:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/leonardmaltin/albert-nobbsmovie-review

Here was mine:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/telluride_11_review_albert_nobbs_glenn_close_mia_wasikowska

More tomorrow...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Special to the FAC: Best Actress

SPECIAL TO THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE: BEST ACTRESS 17 DAYS OUT

The FAC takes a snapshot look at individual categories using the predictive resources of:

Awards Daily (Sasha Stone)

Incontention.com (Kristopher Tapley at HitFix)

The Hollywood Reporter (Scott Feinberg)

Entertainment Weekly (Dave Karger)

Hollywood Elsewhere (Jeffrey Wells)

Thompson on Hollywood (Anne Thompson)

Film Misery

Film Experience

Awards Circuit

IS THE RACE FOR THE FIVE NOMINATIONS ALREADY OVER?

Crunching the Best Actress numbers in the last two days and you find that the five women listed below in the top five spots are pretty overwhelmingly out in front of the rest of the “contender” pack.  As a matter of fact, Anne Thompson at Thompson on Hollywood (Indiewire) lists these five and no one else even as being a possible contender.  That’s bold, but gives you an idea that a good portion of the Oscar punditry thinks that the top five are already locked in.

Here they are with Telluride #38 actresses in bold.

1) Viola Davis/The Help

2) Meryl Streep/The Iron Lady

3) Michele Williams/My Week with Marilyn

4) Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs

5) Tilda Swinton/We Need to Talk About Kevin

The rest of the prospective field:

6) Charlize Theron/Young Adult

7) Rooney Mara/Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

8) Elizabeth Olsen/Martha Marcy Mae Marlene

9) Felicity Jones/Like Crazy

10) Kristen Wiig/Bridesmaids

Also receiving votes: Olivia Colman/Tyrranosaur, Adepeno Odyue/Pariah, Keira Knightley/A Dangerous Method.

The only real movement since my last big Oscar post on Dec. 21 is the appearance of some sentiment on behalf of Kristen Wiig but, realistically, the top five are seemingly pretty solid with Mara, Theron and maybe Olsen the possible "surprise" nominee if it were to occur.  Most vulnerable?  Actually, I think it might be Glenn Close.

DGA NOMINATIONS TO BE ANNOUNCED MONDAY…Look for our Best Picture Special to the FAC on Sunday…and  Best Director analysis on Monday as a part of our regular posting schedule before the DGA announcement.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Occupy!/The Descendants Descends Upon Us/Butter Pix/Silver Linings/Albert Nobbs News/Oscar Pickin'/Odds and Ends

Good Thursday morning, America!

OCCUPY!

I have (and will) continued my "#occupyoscar" movement on Twitter advocating for some "dark horse" Oscar candidates.  Check it and follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

THE DESCENDANTS DROPS

It will come as no surprise to anyone that MTFB/FAC leads off with an immense amount of coverage of Alexander Payne's "The Descendants" which opened on the coasts last night and goes wider tomorrow.  The George Clooney starring vehicle has been the talk of Oscar bloggers since it opened up the Telluride fest as the patrons preview screening on the Friday afternoon that opened the festival (complete with Clooney and Payne and  a brief opportunity for to meet and converse with these two men who in all likelihood will be nominated for Oscar for their work on the film).  It was a fun afternoon.  You can actually read my Playlist review here: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/alexander_payne_george_clooney_riff_on_family_love_loss_death_and_the_choic

So without any further dithering, here is a ton of "Descendants" coverage, interviews and reviews from the past two days or so...

REVIEWS:

Peter Travers/The Rolling Stone: http://www.rollingstone.com/movies/reviews/the-descendants-20111115

The Playlist (New, not mine): http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/review-george-clooney-grapples-with-life-death-fatherhood-in-the-descendants

Alonso Duralde/The Wrap: http://www.thewrap.com/movies/column-post/%E2%80%98descendants%E2%80%99-mid-life-crisis-hawaiian-style-32785

A.O. Scott/The New York Times: http://movies.nytimes.com/2011/11/16/movies/descendants-with-george-clooney-review.html

Leonard Maltin/Movie Crazy: http://blogs.indiewire.com/leonardmaltin/the-descendants


The Daily Mubi Roundup of Reviews (this has a link to Telluride reviews which includes mine...by name...crazy huh?):  http://mubi.com/notebook/posts/alexander-paynes-the-descendants

INTERVIEWS:

Shailene Woodley interviews with...

Jeff Wells/Hollywood Elsewhere: http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2011/11/grace_under_pre.php

Katey Rich/Cinema Blend: http://www.cinemablend.com/new/Descendants-Breakout-Star-Shailene-Woodley-Reveals-What-George-Clooney-Has-Taught-Her-27917.html

Clooney and Payne...

Greg Ellwood/HitFix: http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/awards-campaign/posts/george-clooney-and-alexander-payne-talk-shooting-on-the-descendants-and-praise-the-wire

John Horn/The LA Times: http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/news/la-ca-descendants-payne-20111113,0,1621276.story

GENERAL STORIES:

Fox Searchlight: http://content.foxsearchlight.com/inside/node/5027

Pamela McClintock/The Hollywood Reporter: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/george-clooney-descendants-twilight-breaking-dawn-box-office-261881

Benjamin Mercer/The Atlantic: http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2011/11/why-eternal-bachelor-george-clooney-makes-for-a-great-family-man/248019/

PICTURES

The Playlist: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-descendants-new-images

Go see it.  It's good.

Descendats' IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1033575/

BUTTER PIX

One of the lesser lights of this year's fest (in my opinion...at The Playlist here: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/telluride_11_review_jennifer_garners_butter_churns_and_churns_but_doesnt_pr ) was the Jennifer Garner vehicle "Butter".  Word now comes that The Weinstein Company has moved its release to March of 2012.

New pictures are out at a variety of online venues.  Here's a link to //Film's story: http://www.slashfilm.com/olivia-wilde-hugh-jackman-butter/

Butter's IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1349451/

 SILVER LININGS

And a new film to add to the TFF #39 watchlist..."The Silver Linings Playbook".  Weinsteins have announced its planned release date and it seems very Telluride-friendly.  Check the release story from The Playlist: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/david-o-russells-the-silver-linings-playbook-gets-november-21-2012-release-date


Silver Linings IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1045658/


ALBERT NOBBS NEWS

Anne Thompson at Thompson on Hollywood talks to both Glenn Close and Janet McTeer about the gender bending period piece which is still generating Oscar buzz for Close and also some buzz for McTeer as well.  Check out my Telluride review for The Playlist here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/telluride_11_review_albert_nobbs_glenn_close_mia_wasikowska

Thompson with Close: http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-watch-glenn-close-talks-gender-bender-albert-nobbs

Thompson with McTeer: http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-watch-janet-mcteer-talks-stealing-albert-nobbs-from-glenn-close

Albert's IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1602098/


OSCAR PICKIN'

New Oscar prognostications and analysis from...

Movie City News' Gurus of Gold: http://moviecitynews.com/2011/11/gurus-o-gold-november-15-2011/

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily/State of the Race: http://www.awardsdaily.com/2011/11/the-state-of-the-race-a-storms-coming/

Oscar Poker: http://www.awardsdaily.com/podcasts/oscarpoker/episode55.mp3

Greg Ellwood's Contender Countdown at HitFix: http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/awards-campaign/posts/contender-countdown-can-margin-call-crash-the-oscar-party


ODDS AND ENDS

The Village Voice talks to David Cronenberg about "A Dangerous Method": http://www.villagevoice.com/2011-11-16/film/freudian-trip-in-dialogue-with-david-cronenberg/

24 Frames talks to the cast of "The Artist": http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/movies/2011/11/the-artist-cast-talks-envelope.html

The Playlist talks to Werner Herzog about (among other things) "Into the Abyss: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/interview-werner-herzog-talks-teaching-lock-picking-being-a-living-legend-and-into-the-abyss



FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER @Gort2  #occupyoscar

Film Awards Clearinghouse 2011 Vol. 2/A Lot of Shame/Some Descendants News/Talk About Kevin

Howdy on a Thursday...

A month after the first Clearinghouse and things have changed somewhat in terms of the expectations for the upcoming Oscar race.  Let's break it down...

This edition of the Clearinghouse utilizes publicly posted/accessible data from Awards Daily, Hollywood Elsewhere, Incontention at HitFix, Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter, Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood, Dave Poland at Movie City News, Film Experience and Film Misery.  Telluride #38 films are Bold!

BEST PICTURE:

1) The Artist
2) The Descendants
3) The Help
4) Moneyball
5) War Horse
6) Midnight in Paris
7) Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
8) The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
9) J. Edgar
10) The Ides of March

Dropping Out: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Hot: The Help, Paris, Extremely Loud, Girl...Tattoo
Cold: War Horse, J. Edgar
Comments:  At this point there would likely be 7 nominees.  I'm less than confident about the prospects of the two summertime releases (Help and Paris).  I wouldn't be surprised to see them fade as the holiday onslaught hits (especially Paris). 
Soapbox:  I have been beating my very tiny drum for specific performers/films since Telluride concluded and have decided to do a little more of that...So..."Shame" for Best Pic!

BEST DIRECTOR:

1) Alexander Payne/Descendants
2) Bennett Miller/Moneyball
3) Michel Hazanvicius/Artist
4) Steven Spielberg/War Horse
5) Woody Allen/Paris
6) Stephen Daldry/Extremely Loud
7) Terrence Malick/Tree of Life
8) David Fincher/Girl...Tattoo
9) Tomas Alfredson/Tinker, Tailor...
10) Clint Eastwood/J. Edgar

Dropping Out: Clooney/Ides
Hot: Payne, Miller, Daldry, Fincher
Not: Hazanavicius, Spielberg, Alfredson, Eastwood
Comment: Payne named by all 8 sources.
Soapbox: McQueen/Shame


BEST ACTRESS

1) Viola Davis/Help
2) Glenn Close/Nobbs
3) Meryl Streep/Iron Lady
4) Michelle Williams/Marilyn
5) Charlize Theron/Young Adult
6) Tilda Swinton/Kevin
7) Rooney Mara/Girl...Tattoo
8) Elizabeth Olsen/Martha Marcy...
9) Kirsten Dunst/Melancholia
10) Olivia Colman/Tyrannosaurus

Dropping Out: Jones/Like Crazy, Knightley/Dangerous Method
Hot: Davis, Theron, Mara, Dunst and Colman
Not: Streep and Olsen
Comment: Why do I have the feeling that "The Iron Lady" isn't going to be very good?
Soapbox:  I'm okay here.


BEST ACTOR

1) George Clooney/Descendants
2) Jean Dujardin/Artist
3) Brad Pitt/Moneyball
4) Gary Oldman/Tinker, Tailor...
5) Michael Fassbender/Shame
6) Leonardo DiCaprio/J. Edgar
7) Woody Harrelson/Rampart
8) Ryan Gosling/Ides
9) Michael Shannon/Take Shelter
10) Joseph Gordon-Levitt/50/50

Dropping Out: Fassbender/Dangerous Method, Matt Damon/Zoo
Hot: Dujardin, Pitt, Fassbender, Harrelson, Gordon-Levitt
Not: DiCaprio, Gosling, Shannon
Comment: Fassbender and Harrelson with a lot of heat the last couple of weeks.  Despite being as far out as we are, I suspect the 5 noms will come from the top 7.
Soapbox:  Fassbender!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Olivia Spencer/Help
2) Vanessa Redgrave/Coriolanus
3) Shailene Woodley/Descendants
4) Janet McTeer/Nobbs
5) Berenice Bejo/Artist
6) Judi Dench/J. Edgar
7) Jessica Chastain/Help
8) Carey Mulligan/Shame
9) Judy Greer/Descendants
10) Melissa McCarthy/Bridesmaids

Dropping Out: Bullock/Extremely Loud, Watts/War Horse
Hot: Woodley, Mulligan, Greer, McCarthy
Not: Bejo
Comment:  I think I said as Telluride was coming to an end that this could be a really T-ride heavy category.  If the cards fell right, all 5 noms could be from TFF #38...that won't happen, though.  Spencer is a lock and Redgrave is nearly one.
Soapbox: Mulligan!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Christopher Plummer/Beginners
2) Albert Brooks/Drive
3) Max Von Sydow/Extremely Loud
4) Kenneth Brannagh/Marilyn
5) Jonah Hill/Moneyball
6) Philip Seymour Hoffman/Ides
7) Brad Pitt/Tree of Life
8) Jim Broadbent/Iron Lady
9) Tom Hanks/Extremely Loud
10) John Hawkes/Martha Marcy...

Dropping Out: Nolte/Warrior, Mortensen/Dangerous Method, Ezra Miller/Kevin
Hot: Von Sydow, Hill, Pitt, Hanks, Hawkes
Not: Well, you know, the guys that dropped out.
Comment: Just the opposite of Supporting actress.  Not a Telluride performance currently in the top ten.  It's a weird year...Jonah Hill??? Really??? And the answer is "yes".  He's surprisingly good in "Moneyball".  Brooks looks like a probable nominee...and his performance is fine and it's not your typical Albert Brooks (actually, it kind of IS), but this is an over rated performance.  I expect that the top 5 are all in pretty good shape and that the actual biggest threat to disrupt them is John Hawkes.
Soapbox: Ezra Miller in "We Need to Talk About Kevin" and Corey Stoll in "Midnight in Paris".

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Midnight in Paris
2) The Artist
3) The Tree of Life
4)  Young Adult
5) The Iron Lady
6) J. Edgar
7) Bridesmaids
8) Like Crazy
9) Win Win
10) Shame

Dropping Out: Martha Marcy, Take Shelter
Hot: Tree of Life, Young Adult, Win Win, Shame
Not: J. Edgar, Like Crazy
Comment: The category is very fluid.  Paris looks like the only lock at this point.
Soapbox: A Separation and Beginners!

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Descendants
2) Moneyball
3) Extremely Loud
4) War Horse
5) Tinker, Tailor...
6) The Ides of March
7) Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
8) The Help
9) Drive
10) Carnage

Dropping Out: Kevin, Dangerous Method
Hot: Moneyball, Tattoo, Drive
Not: Tinker Tailor..., Carnage
Comment: Descendants and Moneyball look pretty solid.
Soapbox: I'm good here, too.

The count (if the above actually was correct) in the Big 8 Categories:

The Descendants: 5 noms and another possible.
The Artist: 5 noms
Albert Nobbs: 2 noms
Shame: 1 nom and 2 more possible
Kevin: 1 possible

Telluirde total 13 nominations with another 4 possible.  That's actually down from the 13 and 7 from the last Clearinghouse post largely due to the complete disappearance of "A Dangerous Method".

Meanwhile, Scott Feinberg has his latest Oscar dissection "Feinberg and Friends" up at The Hollywood Reporter.  Check it here:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/scott-feinberg-tom-oneil-oscars-253682


A LOT OF SHAME

It's official.  What we all thought would happen has happened.  Steve McQueen's "Shame" has officially been rated NC-17 by the MPAA.  It's no surprise but it will challenge the folks at Fox Searchlight during this awards season.  I hope that they can turn the trick as I have been a big supporter of this film since it played in Telluride.  Here is exhaustive coverage of the MPAA decision from this week.

From The Wrap: http://www.thewrap.com/movies/column-post/michael-fassbenders-private-parts-officially-rated-nc-17-32172

The Hollywood Reporter: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/shame-rated-nc-michael-fassbender-17-253247

Rope of Silicon: http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/latest-mpaa-ratings-bulletin-no-2195/

Movie City News: http://moviecitynews.com/2011/10/return-of-the-nc-17/

StudioBriefing.net: http://www.studiobriefing.net/2011/10/studio-says-its-not-ashamed-of-nc-17-for-shame/

In other "Shame" news, I have included a couple of links to interviews with McQueen and star Michael Fassbender.

From the New York Film Festival via youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKOALET1uo0&feature=youtu.be&noredirect=1

also from Sight and Sound: https://bfi.org.uk/live/video/744/live/

And a conversation with co-star Carey Mulligan from Movie City News: http://moviecitynews.com/2011/10/dp30-sneak-peek-carey-mulligan-on-incest-nudity-shame/

SOME DESCENDANTS

And finally a look at an interview with "The Descendants" writer/director Alexander Payne from IndieWire:
http://www.indiewire.com/article/2011/10/24/interview_alexander_payne_on_the_descendants_and_career_ambition_my_films_a#

TALK ABOUT KEVIN

This was a good week for Lynne Ramsay's "We Need to Talk About Kevin".  It picked up the BFI London Film Festival Best Film Award.  Details are here from The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/we-need-talk-about-kevin-bfi-london-film-festival-253792

And it released a new, and well received new poster (seen above).  More poster info can be found at The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/another_gorgeous_poster_for_lynne_ramsays_we_need_to_talk_about_kevin/

And also at Cinema Blend:
http://www.cinemablend.com/new/Elegant-Poster-We-Need-Talk-About-Kevin-Arrives-Online-27564.html

See you Monday!

Clooney and Mulligan Honored/Fassbender and McQueen Part Three/New Payne/New Rules on Old Oscars

Good Thursday Morning All...in Edmond, OK this A.M. for Regional One Act Play Contest...

CLOONEY AND MULLIGAN HONORED

How hot are TFF #38 Tributee George Clooney and Telluride featured performer (3 straight years with a film at the festival) Carey Mulligan?  Aside from the fact that Clooney seems to be headed for a nearly certain Best Actor nomination for "The Descendants" and that Mulligan is part of the Supporting Actress conversation for "Shame" the two will be feted by The Hollywood Film Awards.  Clooney will be named Actor of the Year according to Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/george-clooney-receive-actor-year-246918

Mulligan will also be named Supporting Actress of the Year by the same group according to Hollywood.com:
http://www.hollywoodnews.com/2011/10/10/carey-mulligan-receives-hollywood-supporting-actress-award-for-shame-awards-alley/

In addition to Clooney and Mulligan other TFF #38 film actors who will be honored include Berenice Bejo and Jean Dujardin from "The Artist" and Shailene Woodley from "The Descendants".

Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) will also be honored for lifetime achievement and "Artist" director Michel Hazanavicius will receive an honor for Breakthrough Direction.

FASSBENDER AND MC QUEEN PART THREE

First they collaborated on "hunger" which showed at the SHOW in 2008.  Then their sophomore collaboration is this year's conversation piece (and Best Film of the Year so far, for my money) "Shame".  Now comes word that actor Michael Fassbender and writer/director Steve  McQueen will take a third spin together.

They are set to film an adaptation of "12 Years a Slave" a true story set in 1841 of a free African-American who was kidnapped and enslaved for a dozen years.  Chiwetel Ejiofor is set to play the lead in the film.  Find details from Anne Thompson at Thompson on Hollywood (indieWire) here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/2011/10/11/fassbender_and_mcqueen_set_for_third_collaboration_12_years_a_slave_based_o/

One could expect that if completed in a Telluride friendly time frame and if McQueen and Fassbender provide the same quality with this project as they have provided with their first two joint efforts, then we'll likely see the film in 2012 or 2013  in the San Juans.

Thompson says that the film will start lensing in early 2012.

NEW PAYNE

Another familiar face at Telluride the last three years has been Alexander Payne.  Payne has been guest director (in 2009) and was there with "The Descendants" this year.  And he may return very soon as it was announced yesterday that he was working on casting for his next project entitled "Nebraska" and that names in play include Jack Nicholson, Robert Duvall and Gene Hackman.  Check the story at The Playlist (indieWire) here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/alexander_payne_trying_to_lure_gene_hackman_out_of_retirement_for_black_and/

Again, at completion and with Payne having had good success at Telluride this year, you'd think that "Nebraska" would be a likely 2012 or 2013 TFF film.


NEW RULE FOR OLD OSCARS

Sasha Stone at Awards Daily has delved deep into the numbers and applied the new Best Pic Oscar rules (5-10 nominations) to some past years.  For hoots, take a look at what that might have meant here:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2011/10/the-state-of-the-race-climbing-the-tree-and-finding-best-picture-branch-by-branch/

More on Monday!!!

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER
@Gort2

Werner's New Gig/A Separation Hero?/Shame Has a Date/Le Havre on the Web/Close Honored/Not Really Telluride Related

Hope that everyone is having a good week and Good Morning on a Thursday.

WERNER MOONLIGHTING?

Word that Telluride regular and Board of Advisor member and TFF #38 presenter (Into the Abyss) Werner Herzog has a new gig.  He'll be acting.  With Tom Cruise.  As a villain.  Color me shocked?

Can't say that it's all that surprising.  Herzog has reportedly been cast in Chris McQuarrie's "One Shot" an adaptation of a Lee Child novel.

Anne Thompson(Thompson on Hollywood/indieWire) has the scoop:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/2011/10/04/inspired_casting_werner_herzog_will_play_villain_across_tom_cruise_in_mcqua/

A SEPARATION HERO?

I met Asghar Farhadi, the writer-director of "A Separation"briefly at this year's fest and what a quiet and unassuming man he seemed to be.  That sentiment is echoed by Steven Zeitchik at The Envelope from the L.A. Times in a nice piece about the Iranian director and the film, which has continued on from Telluride and has picked up some steam along the way.  It is Iran's entry for consideration for this year's Foreign Language Oscar.

Zeitchik's profile is here:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/movies/2011/10/ashgar-panahi-iran-jafar-panahi-arrested-sentence-separation.html

SHAME HAS A DATE

Despite continuing concerns about its commercial viability, Steve McQueen's "Shame" now has a release date in the U.S. according to Fox Searchlight, which is distributing the film.  I still maintain that it was the Best Film of TFF #38 and that Michael Fassbender and Carey Mulligan deserve Oscar noms for their performances.  Details of "Shame's" release can be found via The Playlist (indieWire) here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/2011/10/04/michael_fassbenders_penis_will_get_released_on_december_2nd_in_shame/

Further details are from Inside Pulse here:
http://insidepulse.com/2011/10/05/fox-searchlight-dates-steve-mcqueens-festival-hit-shame/

LE HAVRE ON THE WEB

Janus Films has announced that it has an official website up and running for Finnish Oscar hopeful "Le Havre".  That can be found here:
http://www.janusfilms.com/lehavre/


CLOSE HONORED

"Albert Nobbs" star and likely Oscar nominee for Best Actress Glenn Close will be honored for her lifetime of work by The Hollywood Film Festival.  The Hollywood Reporter has the details:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/glenn-close-receive-career-achievement-242976


NOT RELATED TO TELLURIDE BUT I FIND IT INTERESTING

Two trailers for films that didn't play at Telluride but figure to be strong players in the Oscar race.
First for Stephen Daldry's "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close".  I read the novel and thought parts were beautiful, parts were "precious" and some parts were derivative.  That said, the trailer looks ...well...great...Details and a link to the trailer from Get the Big Picture here:
http://www.getthebigpicture.net/blog/2011/9/30/extremely-loud-incredibly-close-trailer.html

And the new trailer for Steven Spielberg's "War Horse":
http://trailers.apple.com/trailers/dreamworks/warhorse/

And finally, I am now breathlessly awaiting this...The Coen Brothers do T.V.  Oh my.  Looking forward to "HarveKarbo"  News and details from The Playlist (indieWire) here;
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/joel_ethan_coen_team_with_cedar_rapids_writer_phil_johnston_for_fox_tv_show/

And also from HitFix here:
http://www.hitfix.com/articles/coen-bros-will-quirk-up-tv-landscape-with-new-comedy-series


Check back on Monday!

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER
@Gort2

Oscar Calculations/A Separation in New York/War Horse News

Good Thursday morning!

OSCAR CALCULATIONS

Although the prediction game is still in its early stages, some of the expected choices in the major categories seem to already be solidifying.  This week saw a new Gurus of Gold chart from Movie City News for Picture, Actor and Actress.  Gurus features, among others, the collective wisdom of Pete Hammond, Dave Karger, Kris Tapley, Anne Thompson and Sasha Stone plus 8 others.  Among the films and talent on their charts, in the Best Pic category: "The Descendants", "The Artist" at #1 and #3 respectively. Also getting a little heat "Shame" and "A Dangerous Method".

In the Best Actress category: Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) is at #3.Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin) is at #8 and Keira Knightley (Dangerous Method) is at #10.

The Best Actor category has George Clooney (Descendants) at #1, Jean Dujardin (Artist) at #2 and Michael Fassbender (Shame) at #6.

The complete Gurus of Gold chart can be seen here:
http://moviecitynews.com/2011/09/gurus-o-gold-post-tiff-2011/

Meanwhile, Greg Ellwood at HitFix (who also appears as a "Guru") put together a piece this week on where he sees those same three races.  In the BP category he puts Descendants at #3 and "The Artist" at #7. 
For Actress, he has Close at #6 and in the Actor category he has Clooney at #1, Dujardin at #3 and Fassbender at #4.  His complete article is here:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/awards-campaign/posts/contender-countdown-the-wait-for-war-horse

Finally, a very interesting conversation about any number of facets of this year's Oscar race can be found at the Oscar Roundtable at Awards Daily that is up this week.  Look for it here:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2011/09/oscar-roundtable-2011-take-one/

A SEPARATION IN NEW YORK

Jeff Wells of Hollywood Elsewhere caught a screening of the Iranian entry for Best Foreign Language Picture, "A Separation" in NYC again this week.  Regular readers know that I have been very high on this film since seeing it in Telluride earlier this month.  Check out Wells' story here:
http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2011/09/continuing_sepa.php


WAR HORSE

OK, it's not a Telluride film, but I am very curious about Steven Spielberg's "War Horse" which I would have listed at #1 if I were a Guru of Gold on the Best Picture chart.  Yesterday we heard a couple of pieces of news about the film.  First, that it's release date had been changed to Christmas Day and second, that it has an actual poster.  Here it is (thanks to Rope of Silicon):

                                                                                                                                                                              The ROS story is here:

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/article/war-horse-poster-debuts

Film Awards Clearinghouse 2011 Vol. #1/Foreign Film Fun/New Oscar Party Rules/The Artist is a Winner/Drive and Moneyball

FAC 2011 #1
Here's the first number crunching of predictions from select Oscarologists.  This first go around includes: Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter, Kris Tapley of InContention at HitFix.com, Sasha Stone at Awards Daily, Film Experience and Film Misery.  I'll add more Oscar predictors as the season progresses.  Telluride films are Big and Bold!

Best Picture:
1) The Descendants
2) The Artist
3) War Horse
4) J. Edgar
5) Moneyball
6) The Help
7) Tinker , Tailor, Soldier, Spy
8) Midnight in Paris
9) Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
10) The Ides of March
11) The Tree of Life

Note: Most prognosticators are saying with the new "5 to 10" nominees rule that they expect 7-8 films to be nominated.

Comments: Descendants seems like the closest thing to a lock and even that's not really true.  The race seems very, very fluid at this point.  Moneyball seems to have gotten the biggest lift from Toronto and the surprise Audience Award winner there (Where Do We Go Now) actually would seem to point at some weakness for The Descendants and/or The Artist.  Additionally, after seeing the trailer this week for "J. Edgar" (and admittedly, it's just the trailer) I have some pretty serious reservations about it ending up in the mix (as well as for Eastwood as director, DiCaprio in the Best Actor category).  Right now, if I was actually betting real money, I'd be betting on the horse, War Horse...and Spielberg.

Best Direction:
1) Michel Hazanavicius/Artist
2) Steven Spielberg/War Horse
3) Clint Eastwood/J. Edgar
4) Woody Allen/Midnight in Paris
5) Alexander Payne/Descendants
6) Terrence Malick/Tree of Life
7) Tomas Alfredson/Tinker, Tailor
8) Bennett Miller/Moneyball
9) Stephen Daldry/Extremely Loud

Comment:  The Best Picture race obviously will affect the five who end up with noms here.  Most likely to be nommed without a Best Pic nom: Malick

Best Actress:
1) Meryl Streep/Iron Lady
2) Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs
3) Viola Davis/The Help
4) Michele Williams/My Week with Marilyn
5) Elizabeth Olsen/Martha Mary Mae Marlene
6) Felicity Jones/Like Crazy
7) Tilda Swinton/We Need...Kevin
8) Charlize Theron/Young Adult
9) Keira Knightley/Dangerous Method
10) Rooney Mara/Girl..Tattoo

Comments: Right now, this is a pretty messy category as well.  Davis would probably actually be at #1 save for the fact that one of our sources has her listed in Supporting...which is unlikely.

Best Actor:
1) George Clooney (Descendants)
2) Gary Oldman (TTSS)
3) Leo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)
4) Jean Dujardin (Artist)
5) Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
6) Ryan Gosling (Ides of March)
7) Michael Shannon (Take Shelter)
8) Michael Fassbender (Dangerous Method)
9) Michael Fassbender (Shame)
10) Matt Damon (We Bought a Zoo)

Comments: Clooney with the lead early, but no one is a lock.  Pitt is riding a wave of Toronto and critical love.  Personally I'd vote for Fassbender in Shame.

Best Supporting Actress:
1) Vanessa Redgrave/Coriolanus
2) Octavia Spencer/The Help
3) Berenice Bejo/The Artist
4) Janet McTeer/Albert Nobbs
5) Shailene Woodley/Descendants
6) Judi Dench /Marilyn
7) Jessica Chastain /Take Shelter
8) Sandra Bullock /Extremely Loud
9) Naomi Watts /J. Edgar


Comments: This category could be the most Telluride-centric thanks to McTeer, Bejo, and Woodley.  Personally, I'm surprised and pleased to see this much love for Bejo and I am unabashedly championing the nomination of McTeer.  Jessica Chastain, who has had an unbelievably fantastic year could well eliminate herself because of her great work in multiple films...and that's a shame.  Speaking of Shame...I'm also apologetically campaigning for Carey Mulligan.

Best Supporting Actor:
1) Christopher Plummer/Beginners
2) Albert Brooks/Drive
3) Kenneth Brannagh/Marilyn
4) Nick Nolte/Warrior
5) Viggo Mortensen/Dangerous Method
6) Philip Seymour Hoffman/Ides of March
7) Ezra Miller/We Need...Kevin
8) Jonah Hill/Moneyball
9) Jim Broadbent/Iron Lady

Comments: It tells you a lot that Mortensen is in the conversation for a performance that he could have done in his sleep.  I'm very pleased that Ezra Miller is at least in the conversation.  His turn as Kevin in We Need to Talk...is incredible.  Also, I saw Drive last weekend and liked it, didn't love it.  Just like Brooks' performance...

Adapted Screenplay:
1) The Descendants
2) Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
3) War Horse
4) Extremely Loud,and Incredibly Close
5) The Ides of March
6) Moneyball
7) Carnage
8) The Help/We Need to Talk About Kevin
10) A Dangerous Method

Comments: Descendants has a decent lead here.

Original Screenplay:
1) Midnight in Paris
2) J. Edgar
3) The Artist
4) The Iron Lady
5) Like Crazy
6) Tree of Life
7) Martha Marcy Mae Marlene
8) Bridesmaids
9) 50/50

Comments:  The category with the least Telluride impact, it would seem.

Totals:

The Descendants and The Artist each with 5 nominations in the BIG EIGHT categories.
Albert Nobbs with 2 nominations.
A Dangerous Method with 1 nomination and 3 possibles
We Need to Talk About Kevin with 3 possibles.
Shame with 1 possible.
Total for TFF#38 13 noms and 7 possibles.

Telluride will see some noms in the foreign film category and some other possibilities in the "tech" categories, but it is unlikely at this stage that Telluride's 2011 edition is going to match the nomination total it had last year.  Even this early in 2010 there were strong indications that TFF #37 would get to 30 cumulative noms (and it actually surpassed that).  This year looks to be somewhere in the 20-25 range...and maybe the low end of that.

FOREIGN FILM FUN



Pete Hammond has an in depth look at what's happening in that arena at Deadline.com.  You can find that here:
http://www.deadline.com/2011/09/oscar-controversy-emerges-as-foreign-language-film-entry-deadline-looms/

NEW OSCAR RULES

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Science appears to think that Oscar campaigning has gotten out of hand and has established some new, and kind of weird, rules to combat that perception.  Are they enforceable?

Greg Kilday at The Hollywood Reporter took a good look at that development this past week and you can find the results of his labors here:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/what-new-oscar-campaign-rules-238804

THE ARTIST IS A WINNER

A lot of people (including me) thought that Michel Hazanavicius' "The Artist" would win the audience award at Toronto last weekend and , boy, were we wrong.  However, in a bit of redemption, the balck and white silent film won the same award yesterday at the San Sebastian Film Festival...

Two reports...first from Awards Daily:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2011/09/the-artist-wins-audience-award-at-san-sebastion-fest/

Also from Deadline.com:
http://www.deadline.com/2011/09/san-sebastian-the-artist-takes-audience-award-golden-shell-for-pasos-doble/

DRIVE AND MONEYBALL

I saw both of these films this week.  "Drive" is good, but it's been oversold by a number of critics who seem shocked that it doesn't appear to be connecting to mainstream film goers...sounds a little like last year's hand wringing about "The Social Network".  I liked it, didn't love it.  I'm in for the moodiness and Gosling's brooding.  Music is generally great except for the 2-3 times they get to playing that stuff with lyrics...then it distracts.  Too many coincidences to make it plausible.  And finally, Albert Brooks, I love you, but this is not an Oscar caliber performance.

"Moneyball", on the other hand is as good as the buzz coming out of its turn in Toronto.  Pitt's performance is solid and Jonah Hill (who I admittedly am NOT a fan of) is quite good.  Bennett Miller, who has been missing since "Capote" has done a fine directing job here.  I think it has a real shot to be one of the 7-8 films that get a Best Picture nomination.

See you Thursday!

Thompson's Post-Telluride Toronto Take/Oscarology/Foreign News/SFFF/

Hello on a Thursday in September.  TFF #38 opened three weeks ago tomorrow and Tornoto closed 5 days ago...

THOMPSON'S POST-T-RIDE/TORONTO TAKE:

Anne Thompson of indieWire's Thompson on Hollywood is one of the most perceptive film bloggers in the business.  So when she writes about the post mortem of the fall festival season, it's wise to pay attention.  She has and I have. 

Yesterday Thompson posted a good look at what films benefited and what was harmed in the last three weeks.  Among her comments that relate to TFF #38 pictures: 
Winners: "The Descendants":  AT says "multiple nominations"
"The Artist"...although she has reservations about the Best Actor chances for its lead Jean Dujardin.
George Clooney: who Anne says is a lock for a Best Actor nom from "Descendants"
Michael Fassbender...in either "Shame" or "A Dangerous Method" (which she really liked...I think she's going to be off on it, though).
Sony Pictures Classics: and AT specifically cites SPC's Dangerous Method as well as Foreign film players from Telluride: "A Separation" and "In Darkness".
Also IFC as she cites "Pina" "Into the Abyss" and "The Kid with a Bike"
 Her only real "loser" was The Weinstein Co. and that was all laid at the feet of their Madonna Toronto offering "W.E."

The article contains a ton of other interesting info.  See it here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/2011/09/21/toronto_fest_wrap_best_of_fest_winners_and_losers/


OSCAROLOGY

Taking a run around some of the better known Oscar prognosticators, here's some of what I found this week.

Kris Tapley of InContention which is now housed at HitFix.com submits the following as regards Telluride 2011 offerings:
Best Picture: Good Bet: The Artist", Other Possibilities: The Descendants
Director: Good Bet: M. Hazanavicius/The Artist, Other Possibility: A. Payne/Descendants
Actor: Good Bet: Clooney/Descendant, Other Possibilities: J. Dujardin/Artist and M. Fassbender/Shame
Actress: Good Bet: Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs, Other Possibility: T. Swinton/We Need to Talk About Kevin
Supporting Actor: Other Possibility: Ezra Miller/Kevin
Supporting Actress; (T-ride's hottest category according to Tapley): Possibilities: Shailene Woodley/Descendants, Keira Knightley/Dangerous Method, Berenice Bejo/Artist, Janet McTeer/Albert Nobbs.  And he lists Carey Mulligan as a "Dark Horse" for Shame
Adapted Screenplay: Good Bet: Descendant, Possible: Dangerous Method.  "Dark Horses": Nobbs and Kevin
Original Screenplay: Good Bet:The Artist

From Tapley the count for the BIG 8 Categories:
6 Good Bets
11 Possibles and
3 Dark Horses.

By film:
The Descendants: 2 Good Bets and 3 Possibles
The Artist: 3 Good Bets and 2 Possibles
Albert Nobbs: 1 Good Bet, 1 Possible and 1 Dark Horse
Shame: 1 Possible and 1 Dark Horse
Kevin: 2 Possibles and 1 Dark Horse
Dangerous Method: 2 Possibles

You can find the new link to Tapley and InContention here:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention

FOREIGN NEWS

A couple of updated lists of official Foreign Language Film Oscar entrants are around.  One is from Rope of Silicon.  ROS lists Telluride films already in the mix as: Le Havre, Pina, The Turin Horse, In Darkness, and A Separation.

Check their complete listing at:
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/article/24-foreign-language-oscar-contenders-lined-festival-standout-le-havre-finds-distribution

The Playlist list is even a bit more complete.  It's here:
http://www.indiewire.com/article/updated_list_of_foreign_language_academy_award_submissions/#

SFFF

A quick shout out to the Santa Fe Film Festival in Santa Fe, New Mexico October 20-23.  MTFB may try to make it there for some of that fest.  Their official website:
 http://www.santafefilmfestival.com/