Special to the FAC: Oscar Odds and a little Albert

Good Morning!

OSCAR ODDS

Two Oscar projections this morning.  The first from The Gold Derby where "The Artist" retains the favorite mantle:
http://www.goldderby.com/odds/index/18#

Also from Entertainment Weekly's Dave Karger who has "The Artist" still at #1 and Clooney still ranked to beat Dujardin despite last weekend's SAG Award:
http://insidemovies.ew.com/2012/01/30/oscar-predictions-jean-dujardin-george-clooney/

And finally, a view from Mark Harris at Grantland detailing some possible anti-Artist scenarios:
http://www.grantland.com/blog/hollywood-prospectus/post/_/id/42402/oscarmetrics-the-sagtermath-and-the-case-against-the-artist

AND ALBERT NOBBS...LEONARD MALTIN'S REVIEW

My Telluride acquaintance Leonard Maltin has his review for "Albert" up over at Movie Crazy.  It sounds a lot like mine for The Playlist from Telluride.  Here's his:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/leonardmaltin/albert-nobbsmovie-review

Here was mine:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/telluride_11_review_albert_nobbs_glenn_close_mia_wasikowska

More tomorrow...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Special to the FAC: Supporting Actress

SPECIAL TO THE FAC: Best Supporting actress 13 Days out:

The following has been collated using publicly accessed information from:

Awards Daily

Incontention

Awards Circuit

Film Misery

Film Experience

Thompson on Hollywood

Rope of Silicon

Hollywood Elsewhere

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Dave Karger/Entertainment Weekly

The Best Supporting Actress Leader Board

1) Octavia Spencer/The Help

2) Jessica Chastain/The Help

3) Berenice Bejo/The Artist

4) Shailene Woodley/The Descendants

5) Melissa McCarthy/Bridesmaids

Also in the running:

6) Janet McTeer/Albert Nobbs

7) Vanessa Redgrave/Coriolanus

8) Carey Mulligan/Shame

9) Sandra Bullock/Extremely Loud

10) Judi Dench/J. Edgar

Others with votes:

Judy Greer/Descendants, Evan Rachel Wood/Ides of March, Jessica Chastain/Take Shelter and Jodi Foster/Carnage

HOT: Chastain and McCarthy

NOT: Woodley and Redgrave

THOUGHT:  Realistically, I suspect that the 1 through 4 spots are in and it’s a slugfest between McCarthy and McTeer for the fifth spot.  Personally I’m on the McTeer train and have been since I saw Nobbs in T-ride.  Read my Playlist review from there and you’ll see that I was suggesting the possibility early on:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/telluride_11_review_albert_nobbs_glenn_close_mia_wasikowska

DIRECTORS GUILD

Nominees of the DGA announced yesterday:

Woody Allen/Midnight in Paris

Martin Scorsese/Hugo

Alexander Payne/The Descendants

Michael Hazanavicius/The Artist

David Fincher/Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Surprises were that Fincher is in and Spielberg, Taylor and Malick are out.  This probably nukes Tree of Life as a Best Pic nominee.  It also hurts War Horse (I said yesterday in this space that I thought it was losing steam) and The Help, but probably doesn’t kill them and it gives a boost to the chances for  Girl…Tattoo.

Kris Tapley points out that Payne’s Descendants is the only film that punched its ticket with all the major guilds.  The Artist was not WGA eligible, so couldn’t be named by every major guild.  However, it remains the favorite and will likely be the only film with double digit nominations in two weeks.

Tomorrow: Best Supporting Actor

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Critics Take Note

Good Morning on this December Monday.

CRITICS AND THE AMERICAN FILM INSTITUTE ON SUNDAY

 A slew of critic's groups and the American Film Institute announced their choices yesterday and I have the full coverage here for you from the Boston Society of Film Critics, The Los Angeles Film Critic's Association, The San Francisco Film Critics Circle and the The New York Film Critic's Online as well as the announcement from the AFI of their Top Ten pictures of the year. 

The conventional wisdom among serious Oscar watchers is that the critic's groups have very little predictive power (and, of course, they're not designed to predict Oscar success) but that they can sometimes elevate a film with some well timed PR and they can also help nuke a film's chances.

With that as a caveat, I'll try to parse the results below...

FROM THE AMERICAN FILM INSTITUTE:

AFI’s Ten Films of the year are: BRIDESMAIDS, THE DESCENDANTS, THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO, THE HELP, HUGO, J. EDGAR, MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, MONEY BALL, THE TREE OF LIFE and WAR HORSE.

We have also given special awards to THE ARTIST and the entire “Harry Potter” film series.



FROM THE BOSTON SOCIETY OF FILM CRITICS:

Best Picture - The Artist
Best Actor - Brad Pitt for Moneyball
Best Actress - Michelle Williams for My Week with Marilyn
Best Supporting Actor - Albert Brooks for Drive
Best Supporting Actress - Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids
Best Director - Martin Scorsese for Hugo
Best Screenplay - Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin for Moneyball
Best Cinematography - Emmanuel Lubezki for The Tree of Life
Best Documentary - Project Nim
Best Foreign-Language Film - Incendies (TFF #37-2010)
Best Animated Film - Rango
Best Film Editing (awarded in memory of Karen Schmeer) - Christian Marclay for The Clock
Best New Filmmaker (awarded in memory of David Brudnoy) - Sean Durkin for Martha Marcy May Marlene
Best Ensemble Cast - Carnage
Best Use of Music in a Film - Tie: Drive and The Artist




FROM THE NEW YORK FILM CRITICS ONLINE:

Film - The Artist
Actor - Michael Shannon (Take Shelter)
Actress - Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Director - Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Supporting Actor - Albert Brooks (Drive)
Supporting Actress - Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)
Breakthrough Performer - Jessica Chastain (The Tree of Life, The Debt, The Help, Take Shelter, Coriolanus, Texas Killing Fields)
Debut Director - Joe Cornish (Attack the Block)
Ensemble Cast - Bridesmaids
Screenplay - The Descendants (Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash) 

Documentary - Cave of Forgotten Dreams
Foreign Language - A Separation
Animated - The Adventures of Tintin
Cinematography - The Tree of Life (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Use of Music - The Artist (Ludovic Bource)


1 The Artist (The Weinstein Company)
2 The Descendants (Fox Searchlight)
3 Drive (FilmDistrict)
4 The Help (DreamWorks Pictures)
5 Hugo (Paramount)
6 Melancholia (Magnolia Pictures)
7 Midnight in Paris (Sony Pictures Classics)
8 Take Shelter (Sony Pictures Classics)
9 The Tree of Life (Fox Searchlight)
10 War Horse (DreamWorks Pictures)

SAN FRANCISCO FILM CRITICS CIRCLE:

Best Picture
“The Tree of Life”
Best Director
Terrence Malick for “The Tree of Life”
Best Original Screenplay
J.C. Chandor for “Margin Call”
Best Adapted Screenplay
Bridget O’Connor & Peter Straughan for “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”
Best Actor
Gary Oldman for “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”
Best Actress
Tilda Swinton for “We Need to Talk About Kevin”
Best Supporting Actor
Albert Brooks for “Drive”
Best Supporting Actress
Vanessa Redgrave for “Coriolanus”
Best Animated Feature
“Rango”
Best Foreign Language Film
“Certified Copy”
Best Documentary
“Tabloid”
Best Cinematography
Emmanuel Lubezki for “The Tree of Life”

LOS ANGELES FILM CRITICS ASSOCIATION:

Best Picture: The Descendants

Best Director: Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Best actor: Michael Fassbender, for his work in "A Dangerous Method," "Jane Eyre," "Shame" and "X-Men: First Class."

Runner-Up: Michael Shannon, "Take Shelter."
Best Actress: Yun Jung-hee, in the South Korean film "Poetry."
Runner-up: Kirsten Dunst, "Melancholia."
Best Documentary/Nonfiction film: "Cave of Forgotten Dreams" by Werner Herzog.

Runner-Up: "The Arbor" by Clio Barnard.

Best screenplay: Asghar Farhadi, “A Separation.”

Runner-Up: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash, “The Descendants.”

Best supporting actress: Jessica Chastain, who was recognized for her work in six films -- "Coriolanus," "The Debt," "The Help," "Take Shelter," "Texas Killing Fields" and "The Tree of Life."

Runner-up: Janet McTeer, "Albert Nobbs."
Best supporting actor: Christopher Plummer, "Beginners."
Runner-up: Patton Oswalt, "Young Adult."
Best cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki, "The Tree of Life."
Runner-up: Cao Yu, "City of Life and Death."
Best music/score: The Chemical Brothers, "Hanna."
Runner-up: Cliff Martinez, "Drive."
Best production design: Dante Ferretti, "Hugo."
Runner-up: Maria Djurkovic, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy."
Best Independent, Experimental: "Spark of Being." Directed by Bill Morrison.

Comment:

"The Artist" has a big day.  You have to think that at this point the "critical" view would indicate "The Artist", "Hugo" and "The Descendants" are the films to beat (The LA critics win today was probably welcome news to "The Descendants" team).  I still think "War Horse" has a thing or two to say.  I also continue to believe "The Tree of Life" and Terrence Malick have a good shot to be among the Oscar nominees.  I continue to believe that we will NOT see both "The Help" and "Midnight in Paris" with Best Pic nominations (and right now I believe Midnight is on the outside looking in).

Other races...Best Actor...everyone but George Clooney and Jean Dujardin gets a little boost today.  Fassbender (#Occupy!), Oldman, Shannon and Pitt.

Best Actress:  Williams and Streep in good shape. Nice bump for Tilda Swinton.   Kind of in trouble: Glenn Close.

Supporting Actor: Good day for both Albert Brooks and Christopher Plummer.  This is already a two horse race...with maybe Max Von Sydow as a spoiler.

Supporting Actress: Chastain continues to get that "for multiple roles" thing which is all well and good, but she cancels herself out come Oscar time.  Otherwise, nice bump for McTeer (#Occupy!) and I may have to take Melissa McCarthy's chances seriously...

Director:  Malick, Scorsese and Hazanzvicius.

Other this and that: AFI...surprised at the inclusion of "Bridesmaids" and "J. Edgar".

"Rango"  the animated film to beat (but absolutely no talk of a straight up Best Picture nomination for it)

"A Separation" continues to pile up critical acclaim including a "Best Original Script" nod from the LAFCA (#Occupy!)

Critic's Choice nominations are out tomorrow, The Screen Actor's Guild announces on Wednesday and the Golden Globes will announce nominees on Thursday...Look for those here with special posts and analysis Thursday night.

Occupy!/The Descendants Descends Upon Us/Butter Pix/Silver Linings/Albert Nobbs News/Oscar Pickin'/Odds and Ends

Good Thursday morning, America!

OCCUPY!

I have (and will) continued my "#occupyoscar" movement on Twitter advocating for some "dark horse" Oscar candidates.  Check it and follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

THE DESCENDANTS DROPS

It will come as no surprise to anyone that MTFB/FAC leads off with an immense amount of coverage of Alexander Payne's "The Descendants" which opened on the coasts last night and goes wider tomorrow.  The George Clooney starring vehicle has been the talk of Oscar bloggers since it opened up the Telluride fest as the patrons preview screening on the Friday afternoon that opened the festival (complete with Clooney and Payne and  a brief opportunity for to meet and converse with these two men who in all likelihood will be nominated for Oscar for their work on the film).  It was a fun afternoon.  You can actually read my Playlist review here: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/alexander_payne_george_clooney_riff_on_family_love_loss_death_and_the_choic

So without any further dithering, here is a ton of "Descendants" coverage, interviews and reviews from the past two days or so...

REVIEWS:

Peter Travers/The Rolling Stone: http://www.rollingstone.com/movies/reviews/the-descendants-20111115

The Playlist (New, not mine): http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/review-george-clooney-grapples-with-life-death-fatherhood-in-the-descendants

Alonso Duralde/The Wrap: http://www.thewrap.com/movies/column-post/%E2%80%98descendants%E2%80%99-mid-life-crisis-hawaiian-style-32785

A.O. Scott/The New York Times: http://movies.nytimes.com/2011/11/16/movies/descendants-with-george-clooney-review.html

Leonard Maltin/Movie Crazy: http://blogs.indiewire.com/leonardmaltin/the-descendants


The Daily Mubi Roundup of Reviews (this has a link to Telluride reviews which includes mine...by name...crazy huh?):  http://mubi.com/notebook/posts/alexander-paynes-the-descendants

INTERVIEWS:

Shailene Woodley interviews with...

Jeff Wells/Hollywood Elsewhere: http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2011/11/grace_under_pre.php

Katey Rich/Cinema Blend: http://www.cinemablend.com/new/Descendants-Breakout-Star-Shailene-Woodley-Reveals-What-George-Clooney-Has-Taught-Her-27917.html

Clooney and Payne...

Greg Ellwood/HitFix: http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/awards-campaign/posts/george-clooney-and-alexander-payne-talk-shooting-on-the-descendants-and-praise-the-wire

John Horn/The LA Times: http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/news/la-ca-descendants-payne-20111113,0,1621276.story

GENERAL STORIES:

Fox Searchlight: http://content.foxsearchlight.com/inside/node/5027

Pamela McClintock/The Hollywood Reporter: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/george-clooney-descendants-twilight-breaking-dawn-box-office-261881

Benjamin Mercer/The Atlantic: http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2011/11/why-eternal-bachelor-george-clooney-makes-for-a-great-family-man/248019/

PICTURES

The Playlist: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-descendants-new-images

Go see it.  It's good.

Descendats' IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1033575/

BUTTER PIX

One of the lesser lights of this year's fest (in my opinion...at The Playlist here: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/telluride_11_review_jennifer_garners_butter_churns_and_churns_but_doesnt_pr ) was the Jennifer Garner vehicle "Butter".  Word now comes that The Weinstein Company has moved its release to March of 2012.

New pictures are out at a variety of online venues.  Here's a link to //Film's story: http://www.slashfilm.com/olivia-wilde-hugh-jackman-butter/

Butter's IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1349451/

 SILVER LININGS

And a new film to add to the TFF #39 watchlist..."The Silver Linings Playbook".  Weinsteins have announced its planned release date and it seems very Telluride-friendly.  Check the release story from The Playlist: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/david-o-russells-the-silver-linings-playbook-gets-november-21-2012-release-date


Silver Linings IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1045658/


ALBERT NOBBS NEWS

Anne Thompson at Thompson on Hollywood talks to both Glenn Close and Janet McTeer about the gender bending period piece which is still generating Oscar buzz for Close and also some buzz for McTeer as well.  Check out my Telluride review for The Playlist here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/telluride_11_review_albert_nobbs_glenn_close_mia_wasikowska

Thompson with Close: http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-watch-glenn-close-talks-gender-bender-albert-nobbs

Thompson with McTeer: http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-watch-janet-mcteer-talks-stealing-albert-nobbs-from-glenn-close

Albert's IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1602098/


OSCAR PICKIN'

New Oscar prognostications and analysis from...

Movie City News' Gurus of Gold: http://moviecitynews.com/2011/11/gurus-o-gold-november-15-2011/

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily/State of the Race: http://www.awardsdaily.com/2011/11/the-state-of-the-race-a-storms-coming/

Oscar Poker: http://www.awardsdaily.com/podcasts/oscarpoker/episode55.mp3

Greg Ellwood's Contender Countdown at HitFix: http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/awards-campaign/posts/contender-countdown-can-margin-call-crash-the-oscar-party


ODDS AND ENDS

The Village Voice talks to David Cronenberg about "A Dangerous Method": http://www.villagevoice.com/2011-11-16/film/freudian-trip-in-dialogue-with-david-cronenberg/

24 Frames talks to the cast of "The Artist": http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/movies/2011/11/the-artist-cast-talks-envelope.html

The Playlist talks to Werner Herzog about (among other things) "Into the Abyss: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/interview-werner-herzog-talks-teaching-lock-picking-being-a-living-legend-and-into-the-abyss



FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER @Gort2  #occupyoscar

Thompson's Post-Telluride Toronto Take/Oscarology/Foreign News/SFFF/

Hello on a Thursday in September.  TFF #38 opened three weeks ago tomorrow and Tornoto closed 5 days ago...

THOMPSON'S POST-T-RIDE/TORONTO TAKE:

Anne Thompson of indieWire's Thompson on Hollywood is one of the most perceptive film bloggers in the business.  So when she writes about the post mortem of the fall festival season, it's wise to pay attention.  She has and I have. 

Yesterday Thompson posted a good look at what films benefited and what was harmed in the last three weeks.  Among her comments that relate to TFF #38 pictures: 
Winners: "The Descendants":  AT says "multiple nominations"
"The Artist"...although she has reservations about the Best Actor chances for its lead Jean Dujardin.
George Clooney: who Anne says is a lock for a Best Actor nom from "Descendants"
Michael Fassbender...in either "Shame" or "A Dangerous Method" (which she really liked...I think she's going to be off on it, though).
Sony Pictures Classics: and AT specifically cites SPC's Dangerous Method as well as Foreign film players from Telluride: "A Separation" and "In Darkness".
Also IFC as she cites "Pina" "Into the Abyss" and "The Kid with a Bike"
 Her only real "loser" was The Weinstein Co. and that was all laid at the feet of their Madonna Toronto offering "W.E."

The article contains a ton of other interesting info.  See it here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/2011/09/21/toronto_fest_wrap_best_of_fest_winners_and_losers/


OSCAROLOGY

Taking a run around some of the better known Oscar prognosticators, here's some of what I found this week.

Kris Tapley of InContention which is now housed at HitFix.com submits the following as regards Telluride 2011 offerings:
Best Picture: Good Bet: The Artist", Other Possibilities: The Descendants
Director: Good Bet: M. Hazanavicius/The Artist, Other Possibility: A. Payne/Descendants
Actor: Good Bet: Clooney/Descendant, Other Possibilities: J. Dujardin/Artist and M. Fassbender/Shame
Actress: Good Bet: Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs, Other Possibility: T. Swinton/We Need to Talk About Kevin
Supporting Actor: Other Possibility: Ezra Miller/Kevin
Supporting Actress; (T-ride's hottest category according to Tapley): Possibilities: Shailene Woodley/Descendants, Keira Knightley/Dangerous Method, Berenice Bejo/Artist, Janet McTeer/Albert Nobbs.  And he lists Carey Mulligan as a "Dark Horse" for Shame
Adapted Screenplay: Good Bet: Descendant, Possible: Dangerous Method.  "Dark Horses": Nobbs and Kevin
Original Screenplay: Good Bet:The Artist

From Tapley the count for the BIG 8 Categories:
6 Good Bets
11 Possibles and
3 Dark Horses.

By film:
The Descendants: 2 Good Bets and 3 Possibles
The Artist: 3 Good Bets and 2 Possibles
Albert Nobbs: 1 Good Bet, 1 Possible and 1 Dark Horse
Shame: 1 Possible and 1 Dark Horse
Kevin: 2 Possibles and 1 Dark Horse
Dangerous Method: 2 Possibles

You can find the new link to Tapley and InContention here:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention

FOREIGN NEWS

A couple of updated lists of official Foreign Language Film Oscar entrants are around.  One is from Rope of Silicon.  ROS lists Telluride films already in the mix as: Le Havre, Pina, The Turin Horse, In Darkness, and A Separation.

Check their complete listing at:
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/article/24-foreign-language-oscar-contenders-lined-festival-standout-le-havre-finds-distribution

The Playlist list is even a bit more complete.  It's here:
http://www.indiewire.com/article/updated_list_of_foreign_language_academy_award_submissions/#

SFFF

A quick shout out to the Santa Fe Film Festival in Santa Fe, New Mexico October 20-23.  MTFB may try to make it there for some of that fest.  Their official website:
 http://www.santafefilmfestival.com/