Almost to the Finish Line

Good Morning

ALMOST TO THE FINISH LINE

Oscars are three days away and a slew of "final" predictions can be found.  Here's a look at some of them.

Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly:
http://insidemovies.ew.com/2012/02/22/final-oscar-predictions-the-artist-dave-karger/

Brad Brevet at Rope of Silicon:
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/final-2012-oscar-predictions/

Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscar-predictions-the-artist-academy-awards-292628

And a final post from The Movie City News Gurus of Gold:
http://moviecitynews.com/2012/02/gurus-o-gold-the-last-gasp/

I'll have what passes for my predictions up on Sunday and then we'll all find out on Sunday night.

CANNES

Cannes speculation has already begun and I'll be looking at it in the next couple of weeks as we transition away from awards season and into TFF #39 spec territory.  HitFix had an interesting post up yesterday about Cannes re-emergence as an Oscar bellwether.  Here that is:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/cannes-regains-its-oscar-foresight

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Movieline is up with a look at the Best Foreign Language Oscar nominees in which Telluride films figure prominently.  See it here:
http://www.movieline.com/2012/02/22/oscar-roundtable-meet-this-years-best-foreign-language-feature-nominees/

Later

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Special to the FAC: Oscar Odds and a little Albert

Good Morning!

OSCAR ODDS

Two Oscar projections this morning.  The first from The Gold Derby where "The Artist" retains the favorite mantle:
http://www.goldderby.com/odds/index/18#

Also from Entertainment Weekly's Dave Karger who has "The Artist" still at #1 and Clooney still ranked to beat Dujardin despite last weekend's SAG Award:
http://insidemovies.ew.com/2012/01/30/oscar-predictions-jean-dujardin-george-clooney/

And finally, a view from Mark Harris at Grantland detailing some possible anti-Artist scenarios:
http://www.grantland.com/blog/hollywood-prospectus/post/_/id/42402/oscarmetrics-the-sagtermath-and-the-case-against-the-artist

AND ALBERT NOBBS...LEONARD MALTIN'S REVIEW

My Telluride acquaintance Leonard Maltin has his review for "Albert" up over at Movie Crazy.  It sounds a lot like mine for The Playlist from Telluride.  Here's his:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/leonardmaltin/albert-nobbsmovie-review

Here was mine:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/telluride_11_review_albert_nobbs_glenn_close_mia_wasikowska

More tomorrow...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

THE DAY BEFORE AND HERE ARE THE PREDICTIONS! Plus some other folks and news.

In 24 hours we will know the Oscar nominees in 24 categories and all the speculation and thrashing about that we've been doing for the last 5 months gets focused for the 4 and 1/2 week run to Oscar night on Feb. 26.

Here's what The Film Awards Clearinghouse metric says will happen tomorrow morning (and here and there a comment or two from yours truly).  Metrics data from: Awards Daily, Incontention, Thompson on Hollywood, Rope of Silicon, Awards Circuit, Entertainment Weekly, The Hollywood Reporter, Film Misery, The Film Experience and Hollywood Elsewhere.

As far as The Best short Documentary, Live action and Animation…not even going to try.  I do hope for nominations for La Luna and Luminaris.

SOUND MIXING: War Horse, Transformers, Tintin, Super 8, Apes.  Also with a good shot: Hugo.

SOUND EDITING: War Horse, Apes, Tintin, Transformers, Hugo.  Maybe Super 8 or Rango.

VISUAL EFFECTS: Apes, Potter, Hugo, Tree of Life, Hugo, Transformers. Also a decent shot for Capt. America, X Men, Super 8, Pirates 4 or Mission Impossible.

ORIGINAL SCORE: The Artist, Hugo, War Horse, Dragon Tattoo, Extremely Loud.  Also in play: Tintin, Moneyball and The Help.

ORIGINAL SONG: The Help, Albert Nobbs, The Muppets (Life is a Happy Song), The Muppets (Pictures in My Head), Capt. America.  Also with a decent shot: Gnomeo and Juliet, W.E., Machine Gun Preacher and The Muppets (Man or Muppet).

MAKEUP: The Iron Lady, Albert Nobbs, The Artist.  Also: Gainesborg, Potter, Hugo

COSTUME: Hugo, The Artist, Jane Eyre, Marilyn, The Help.  Also: Anonymous and W.E.

ART DIRECTION: Hugo, Artist, Potter, Tinker, War Horse.  Maybe: Dragon Tattoo, Anonymous, The Help, Tree of Life.

CINEMATOGRAPHY: Tree of Life, Hugo, War Horse, Artist, Dragon Tattoo.  Maybe: Drive, Potter, Tinker.

FILM EDITING: Artist, War Horse, Hugo, Dragon Tattoo, Moneyball.  Maybe: Drive, Descendants, Tree of Life

ANIMATED FEATURE: Rango, Puss in Boots, Tintin, Arthur Christmas, Kung Fu Panda 2.  Possibles: Cars 2, Rio.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Project Nim, Paradise Lost 3, Buck, We Were Here, Pina.  Also possible: If a Tree Falls, Bill Cunningham.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: A Separation, In Darkness, Footnote, Pina, Monsieur Lazhar. Any others…Bullhead, Superclassico, Omar Killed Me, Warriors of the Rainbow.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Midnight in Paris, The Artist, Bridesmaids, 50/50, Win Win.  Possibles: Young Adult, A Separation, Tree of Life

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Descendants, Moneyball, Hugo, The Help, War Horse.  [Note: I’ll bet War Horse is even in trouble in this category].  Others that could sneak in: Dragon Tattoo, Tinker, Ides of March

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christopher Plummer/Beginners, Albert Brooks/Drive, Kenneth Brannagh/My Week with Marilyn, Jonah Hill/Moneyball and Nick Nolte/Warrior.  Could be: Max Von Sydow/Extremely Loud, Patton Oswalt/Young Adult and there appears to be a late surge for Ben Kingsley in Hugo.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Octavia Spencer and Jessica Chastain both from The Help, Berenice Bejo/Artist, Melissa McCarthy/Bridesmaids and Shailene Woodley/Descendants. [Note: I actually think that this category is pretty tight.  I also really have a difficult time believing the Academy will actually nominate McCarthy]  Others; Janet McTeer/Albert Nobbs, Vanessa Redgrave/Coriolanus and Carey Mulligan/Shame.

ACTOR: George Clooney/Descendants, Jean Dujardin/Artist, Brad Pitt/Moneyball, Michael Fassbender/Shame, Leonardo DiCaprio/J. Edgar. [Note: I flat out think that DiCaprio has faded completely and that opens the door for… Gary Oldman/Tinker or maybe Michael Shannon/Take Shelter or Demian Bichir/A Better Life]

ACTRESS: Viola Davis/The Help, Meryl Streep/Iron Lady, Michelle Williams/Marilyn, Tilda Swinton/We Need to Talk About Kevin, Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs.  Could sneak in: Rooney Mara/Dragon Tattoo or Charlize Theron/Young Adult.

DIRECTOR: Michel Hazanavicius/Artist, Alexander Payne/Descendants, Martin Scorsese/Hugo, Woody Allen/Midnight in Paris, Steven Spielberg/War Horse.  Again, I think the bloom is off the rose for Spielberg and this fifth spot will go either to David Fincher/Dragon Tattoo Terrence Malick/Tree of Life.

PICTURE: So much depends on whether there are 5 or 6 or 7 or 8…I’m going with seven and the metric says: The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, The Help, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball and War Horse.  And I will flaunt the metric and say War Horse does NOT get in and either Dragon Tattoo or Tree of Life does.  


I still feel that the new rules favor a surprise BP nomination for Tree of Life tomorrow morning.  Those that love it, love it and it needs to get past that 250-300 first place vote threshold (out of nearly 6,000) to get a nomination...I think it's doable.  

Now bring on tomorrow morning’s announcement so we can start parsing the results and complaining!  I've got experts and industry insiders who tell me that they'll share their reactions and insights into tomorrow's announcement.  Lined up: a screenwriter, a director, a producer, an editor, a PR guy and a couple of film bloggers


OTHERS LAST SHOTS:


Final pre-Oscar predictions from Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-academy-award-nominations-hugo-artist-dragon-tattoo-283762

And also from Sasha Stone at Awards Daily:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2012/01/2011predictions/

Greg Ellwood at HitFix.com:
http://www.hitfix.com/galleries/2012-oscar-nominations-predictions#1

Guy Lodge at Incontention.com:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/guy-lodge-predicts
THE ARTIST WINS PRODUCERS GUILD AWARD

The Artist continues to pile up the pew-Oscar awards winning the PGA award as Best FIlm on Saturday night.  Find the complete story at Hollywoodnews.Com:
http://www.hollywoodnews.com/2012/01/22/oscars-the-artist-takes-top-producers-guild-prize-analysis-awards-alley/

SUNDANCE UNDER WAY

And as promised MTFB/FAC has a man in transit.  Gant Lee will be on the ground in Park City this week and our plan is to post his Sundance coverage and impressions here...Check Gant's film blog CinemaBebop here:
http://cinemabebop.tumblr.com/post/16271538547/coming-up

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Sunday Extra to The FAC

Good Morning...down to under 48 hours until Oscar nominations are announced by The Academy.


CEASE THAT CORONATION!

This morning I have two pieces that suggest that there is still a reasonable level of suspense about what will ultimately win the Oscar next month (Feb. 26) for Best Picture.

First from The Playlist's Oli Lyttleton: 5 Reasons The Artist might not win best picture (in fairness, he strains to get to 5):
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-amazing-race-its-not-over-yet-five-reasons-the-artist-might-not-win-best-picture

And also from Sasha Stone at Awards Daily a rumination on the possibility that The Descendants could pull off the upset:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2012/01/the-descendants-poised-to-upset-in-best-picture/

MY TOP TEN FOR 2011

Well, after much weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth, here is my Top Ten list for the films that I saw in 2012 (somewhere north of 50...not "critic" type numbers...but a lot of films)...But admittedly, I haven't seen everything.  Haven't caught War Horse or Extremely Loud yet.  Nor critical darlings like Melancholia, Take Shelter or Martha Marcy Mae Marlene.  Someday, I'll get 'em in.

#10 HUGO (dir. by Martin Scorsese)... Scorsese steps into a completely different filmic milieu and succeeds very well.  It's a beautiful film to look at.  The 3D isn't a bother (as it so often is in most 3D films) and sounds one of the biggest themes from serious films this year...the nostalgic reverence for the history of film and its place in our lives.  (my runner -up #11 picture...Girl with the Dragon Tattoo).
Hugo's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0970179/

#9 ALBERT NOBBS (dir. by Rodrigo Garcia)  Glenn Close's passion project that took decades to get made was largely dismissed by most critics, but I contend that her performance as a woman masquerading as a mild mannered MAN and Janet McTeer's supporting performance are enough to put it on my list.  I think that a number of critics just didn't get how difficult it is to do what Close does in this film.  Probably headed to 3-4 Oscar nominations.
Albert Nobbs' IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1602098/
Check out my actually published Albert Nobbs review from Telluirde for The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/telluride_11_review_albert_nobbs_glenn_close_mia_wasikowska

#8 RANGO (dir. Gore Verbinski)  I'm also a bit surprised that this hasn't gotten more critical love at the end of the year.  It also hasn't benefited from what has been a yearly "Will The Academy nominate an animated film for Best Picture?" push.  This despite the fact that it is a clear front runner to win the Oscar for Animated Feature.  Nonetheless, it's funny, quirky, and inventive.
Rango's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1192628/

#7 BEGINNERS (dir. Mike Mills)  Christopher Plummer is headed to an Oscar nomination (and probable win) as Supporting Actor as a widower who finally comes out in his 70's and Ewan MacGregor plays the son dealing with the new circumstances.  It's a beautiful, touching funny and very human film from Mills.  It would be nice to see him get an Original Screenplay nomination as well and it could happen; it's not very likely, though.
Beginners' IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1532503/

#6 MONEYBALL (dir. Bennett Miller)  A top flight job from all involved.  Steve Zallian and Aaron Sorkin's adaptation is brilliantly done.  Miller directs with confidence (I am fast getting to the point where I'll go see a film just because he's the director) and Brad Pitt is more than fine as Billy Beane.  And the surprise is how good Jonah Hill is.  Probable Oscar nods to Zallian, Sorkin, Pitt and Hill.  Miller's odds for a directing nomination are fairly long, though.
Moneyball's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1210166/

#5  A SEPARATION (dir. Asghar Farhadi)  A miracle of a film from Iran.  I contend that this is the best written film of any type this year.  Almost certain to be a Best Foreign Language Film nominee (and the likely winner), I've been advocating n Original Screenplay nomination for months...not likely, but it's also not impossible.  And here's the thing...it's Iranian...I saw it with subtitles and it still translated to great writing...do you have any idea how difficult that is?  Steady direction and great committed performances also.  Talk about your films that transcend boundaries...
A Separation's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1832382/

#4 THE DESCENDANTS (dir. Alexander Payne)  A nice return from Mr. Payne who had been away from directing for 7 years.  George Clooney stars as a man with family issues.  He's probably going to win his second Oscar for this and perhaps he should, it's one of his best turns on screen.  Good support up and down the cast as well with relative newcomer Shailene Woodley a very possible nominee for Supporting Actress.  This will probably net 4-7 nominations Tuesday morning.  Check my Playlist review from Telluride for further details here: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/alexander_payne_george_clooney_riff_on_family_love_loss_death_and_the_choic#
The Descendants IMDb page is here: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1033575/

#3 THE TREE OF LIFE (dir.Terrence Malick)  No one tried anything bigger, bolder and more adventurous this year than Terrence Malick.  So many people have said, "what's it about?"...best answer  "Life" sort as the title implies.  Malick juxtaposes macro and micro versions of "life" with each illuminating the other.  Brad Pitt is very good as a domineering 50's era father.  it also helps that the film is incredibly beautifully shot and that Malick (clearly drawing from his own experiences as a young boy in Texas and Oklahoma) gets the look and tone of the place and time of the micro story just right.  This film and my #1 are the two films that I saw this year that kept returning to me mind to turn over again and again.
The Tree of Life's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0478304/

#2 THE ARTIST (dir. Michel Hazanavicius)  I was intrigued from the moment I heard the premise and started to hear the reactions and descriptions out of Cannes.  Firstly, how bold do you have to be to pitch a black and white silent film in the 2000's???  Pretty bold.  And then the execution!  And it works so so well.  Hazanavicius' vision is beautifully realized especially from Jean Dujardin in the lead.  To my mind, 75 years removed from the days when this was the ONLY way films were done, this was like re-inventing the form from scratch.  Remarkably well done.  The Artist will likely be in double digit nominations (and it may be the only film to get there this year, though Hugo has a real chance as well) on Tuesday morning and deservedly so.
The Artist's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1655442/

#1 SHAME (dir. Steve McQueen).  Yeah, I know.  It's NC-17.  And a lot of people do NOT like it, love it, care for it.  Many actively hate it.  It was certainly not universally embraced at Telluride.  But, I'm telling you, this film stuck with me all fall.  Shattering, searing, unflinching.  And the performances from Michael Fassbender and Carey Mulligan are phenomenal.  Fassy will probably get the only nomination here and he'd be winning the Best Actor Oscar if I had a ballot.  Mulligan would also be at the top of my Supporting Actress ballot, but she appears to have only a marginal chance of being one of the five nominees on Tuesday.  I'd also include McQueen and Abi Morgan for screenplay.  Perhaps McQueen for direction and likely cinematography as well.
Shame's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1723811/

What are your Ten Best of 2011??

Coming tomorrow...Michael's Telluride Film Blog and The Film Award Clearinghouse predicts the Oscar nominations!

Follow me on Twitter  @Gort2

The FAC and Screenplays/Shame Stories/Nobbs Looks/Cinematography Guild

Good morning on a Thursday...

SPECIAL TO THE FAC: SCREENPLAYS 11 DAYS OUT

Historically the most difficult categories to predict, the writing categories are where we shine our Oscar spotlight today…

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

1) The Descendants

2) Moneyball

3) Hugo

4) The Help

5) War Horse

In the Running:

6) Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

6) Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

8) Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

9) The Ides of March

10) Drive

HOT: The Help, Tattoo

NOT: Extremely Loud

THOUGHT: I think that it’s likely that “War Horse” may be also in trouble here.  The snub yesterday by the cinematographers' guild continues a string of snubs for the Spielberg film.  I won’t be surprised next week if it’s off this list before the announcement of nominees happens.  Actually, positions 1 thru 4 seem pretty solid to me.  Maybe “Tattoo” or “Tinker Tailor” sneaks in for the fifth nomination.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Artist

2) Midnight in Paris

3) Win Win

4) 50/50

5) Bridesmaids

In the Running:

6) Young Adult

7) A Separation

8) The Tree of Life

9) Beginners

10) Take Shelter

HOT: Win Win, 50/50, Bridesmaids, A Separation, and Beginners

NOT: Young Adult, Tree of Life

THOUGHT:  Maybe the toughest category to pick every year and seemingly even tougher this year.  If the 1 thru 5 positions hold you’d have an interesting scenario in which all of the nominees were comedies or have largely comic elements.  That’s unusual.

Of course, I still am advocating a nomination for Asghar Farhadi for his phenomenal script for

“ A Separation”.  #occupyoscar!

Tomorrow a look at the Animated Features in which a lizard will lead the way…

SHAME STORIES

I'm still saying that when I put up my top ten list for 2011 films (soon, I promise) that this film will likely be at the top of the list.  It continues to look fairly positive for Michael Fassbender to get a Best Actor Oscar nomination in a few days.  Carey Mulligan still appears to have a chance at Best Supporting Actress, but I'd wager that it's a 5 to 1 proposition for her at this point.  I'd also be on board for a number of other possible noms, but that's not going to happen.  Nevertheless, here are a couple of Shame-centric stories that appeared this week.

An interview on the Fox Searchlight website with Fassbender, Mulligan and writer/director Steve McQueen:

http://content.foxsearchlight.com/inside/node/5078

Also a Carey Mulligan interview posted at The New York Times:

http://carpetbagger.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/11/carey-mulligan-and-the-play-that-is-shame/?smid=tw-thecarpetbagger&seid=auto

ALBERT NOBBS LOOKS

Thanks to Movie City News we can take a look at Glenn Close in her original incarnation as Albert Nobbs from her Obie winning performance from 30 years ago.  She's a kid!

http://moviecitynews.com/2012/01/what-did-glenn-close-look-like-as-albert-nobbs-in-1981/

CINEMATOGRAPHY GUILD SPEAKS

The American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) announced the five films nominated for their top award yesterday.  They were: The Tree of Life, Hugo, The Artist, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy.  Snubbed again...War Horse.  Looking less and less like it will get the Best Picture nomination that seemed a certainty only a few days ago.

Here's a rundown of the ASC nomination story from The Wrap:

http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/tree-life-artist-nominated-cinematographers-34288

Again, I'll have a "special" to The Film Awards Clearinghouse tomorrow looking at the race for the Best Animated Film race.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Special to the FAC: Supporting Actress

SPECIAL TO THE FAC: Best Supporting actress 13 Days out:

The following has been collated using publicly accessed information from:

Awards Daily

Incontention

Awards Circuit

Film Misery

Film Experience

Thompson on Hollywood

Rope of Silicon

Hollywood Elsewhere

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Dave Karger/Entertainment Weekly

The Best Supporting Actress Leader Board

1) Octavia Spencer/The Help

2) Jessica Chastain/The Help

3) Berenice Bejo/The Artist

4) Shailene Woodley/The Descendants

5) Melissa McCarthy/Bridesmaids

Also in the running:

6) Janet McTeer/Albert Nobbs

7) Vanessa Redgrave/Coriolanus

8) Carey Mulligan/Shame

9) Sandra Bullock/Extremely Loud

10) Judi Dench/J. Edgar

Others with votes:

Judy Greer/Descendants, Evan Rachel Wood/Ides of March, Jessica Chastain/Take Shelter and Jodi Foster/Carnage

HOT: Chastain and McCarthy

NOT: Woodley and Redgrave

THOUGHT:  Realistically, I suspect that the 1 through 4 spots are in and it’s a slugfest between McCarthy and McTeer for the fifth spot.  Personally I’m on the McTeer train and have been since I saw Nobbs in T-ride.  Read my Playlist review from there and you’ll see that I was suggesting the possibility early on:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/telluride_11_review_albert_nobbs_glenn_close_mia_wasikowska

DIRECTORS GUILD

Nominees of the DGA announced yesterday:

Woody Allen/Midnight in Paris

Martin Scorsese/Hugo

Alexander Payne/The Descendants

Michael Hazanavicius/The Artist

David Fincher/Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Surprises were that Fincher is in and Spielberg, Taylor and Malick are out.  This probably nukes Tree of Life as a Best Pic nominee.  It also hurts War Horse (I said yesterday in this space that I thought it was losing steam) and The Help, but probably doesn’t kill them and it gives a boost to the chances for  Girl…Tattoo.

Kris Tapley points out that Payne’s Descendants is the only film that punched its ticket with all the major guilds.  The Artist was not WGA eligible, so couldn’t be named by every major guild.  However, it remains the favorite and will likely be the only film with double digit nominations in two weeks.

Tomorrow: Best Supporting Actor

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Special to the FAC: Best Actress

SPECIAL TO THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE: BEST ACTRESS 17 DAYS OUT

The FAC takes a snapshot look at individual categories using the predictive resources of:

Awards Daily (Sasha Stone)

Incontention.com (Kristopher Tapley at HitFix)

The Hollywood Reporter (Scott Feinberg)

Entertainment Weekly (Dave Karger)

Hollywood Elsewhere (Jeffrey Wells)

Thompson on Hollywood (Anne Thompson)

Film Misery

Film Experience

Awards Circuit

IS THE RACE FOR THE FIVE NOMINATIONS ALREADY OVER?

Crunching the Best Actress numbers in the last two days and you find that the five women listed below in the top five spots are pretty overwhelmingly out in front of the rest of the “contender” pack.  As a matter of fact, Anne Thompson at Thompson on Hollywood (Indiewire) lists these five and no one else even as being a possible contender.  That’s bold, but gives you an idea that a good portion of the Oscar punditry thinks that the top five are already locked in.

Here they are with Telluride #38 actresses in bold.

1) Viola Davis/The Help

2) Meryl Streep/The Iron Lady

3) Michele Williams/My Week with Marilyn

4) Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs

5) Tilda Swinton/We Need to Talk About Kevin

The rest of the prospective field:

6) Charlize Theron/Young Adult

7) Rooney Mara/Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

8) Elizabeth Olsen/Martha Marcy Mae Marlene

9) Felicity Jones/Like Crazy

10) Kristen Wiig/Bridesmaids

Also receiving votes: Olivia Colman/Tyrranosaur, Adepeno Odyue/Pariah, Keira Knightley/A Dangerous Method.

The only real movement since my last big Oscar post on Dec. 21 is the appearance of some sentiment on behalf of Kristen Wiig but, realistically, the top five are seemingly pretty solid with Mara, Theron and maybe Olsen the possible "surprise" nominee if it were to occur.  Most vulnerable?  Actually, I think it might be Glenn Close.

DGA NOMINATIONS TO BE ANNOUNCED MONDAY…Look for our Best Picture Special to the FAC on Sunday…and  Best Director analysis on Monday as a part of our regular posting schedule before the DGA announcement.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

OCCUPY!/The Artist/Shame/Albert Nobbs/Dangerous Method/A Separation/Oscar Buzzzzz

Good Monday morning to all.  I hope you're recovering from food induced stupor.

OCCUPY!

My #occupyoscar "movement" continues over on twitter.  going to try to make a couple of moves to heat that up this week.  Don't hold your breath.  But DO check it our on Twitter with the #occupyoscar hashtag and follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

THE ARTIST

"The Artist" opened on the coasts this Thanksgiving weekend and will open wider and wider as we approach Christmas.  The black and white silent film that stars French actors that most Americans have never heard of still sits well on my latest FAC charts (check out the Nov. 24 post) looking good for nominations in 5 of the Big 8 categories (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay).

Also, in "Artist" related news, I caught the Hazanaziciuus/Dujardin  collaborations that are the "OSS 117" films over the weekend.  "Cairo: Nest of Spies" : Good "Lost in Rio": Not so much.  They're both available on Netflix Instant.

Here's your rundown of "Artist" related posts/articles from the last 4 days>

Greg Ellwood at HitFix interviews Berenice Bejo and Jean Dujardin:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/awards-campaign/posts/meet-the-celebrated-stars-of-the-artist-in-sound-and-living-color

Guy Lodge of Incontention talks to Bejo, Dujardin and writer/director Michel Hazanavicius:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/interview-jean-dujardin-b-r-nice-bejo-and-michel-hazanavicius-talk-the-artist

Stories from The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/the-artist-oscar-black-white-silent-266428

and The Daily Mubi:
http://mubi.com/notebook/posts/michel-hazanaviciuss-the-artist

The Artist IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1655442/

SHAME

"Shame" continues to challenge for awards recognition in spite of its NC-17 rating from the MPAA.  It's no secret that the Steve McQueen drama will need some fuel from winning some serious critic's awards love over the next month or so if it has any chances of Oscar noticing it.  We'll get the first glimpse of that in the next few days as The New York Film Critic's Circle and the National Board of Review reveal their choices (after a somewhat entertaining tussle over which entity would get to be first and what films will have and won't have been screened).  Stay tuned for those results.

Here's this week's "Shame" news:

The New York Times talks to McQueen and star Michael Fassbender:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/27/movies/steve-mcqueen-and-michael-fassbender-team-up-in-shame.html

PopcornReel.com talks with McQueen:
http://www.popcornreel.com/htm/stevemcqueen.html

The Hollywood Reporter with some NC-17 analysis:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/shame-rating-nc17-michael-fassbender-266055

Shame's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1723811/

ALBERT NOBBS

David Poland of Movie City News talks to Glenn Close and Janet McTeer (she's an #occupyoscar candidate) from "Albert Nobbs":

http://moviecitynews.com/2011/11/dp30-albert-nobbs-actorwco-writer-glenn-close-actor-janet-mcteer/

Albert's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1602098/

A DANGEROUS METHOD

Cronenberg and crew kept up some noise for his " A Dangerous Method" the last few days.

Here are interviews with Cronenberg from The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/david-cronenberg-talks-the-deep-research-behind-a-dangerous-method

Rope of Silicon: http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/david-cronenberg-interview-keira-knightley-dangerous-method-oscar/

and Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/interview-david-cronenberg-talks-a-dangerous-method

Also Viggo Mortensen talks to The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/viggo-mortensen-finds-parallels-between-sigmund-freud-in-a-dangerous-method-william-s-burroughs-in-on-the-road

A Dangerous Method's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1571222

A SEPARATION

One of the best films at this year's TFF was Asghar Farhadi's beautifully constructed "A Separation".  I've got it in my #occupyoscar stable for Original Screenplay consideration.  The film had a pretty good week as it was named Best Film at the Asia Pacific Screen Awards.  The Hollywood Reporter has that story:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/asghar-farhadi-s-a-separation-266027

A Separation's IMDb page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1832382/


OSCAR BUZZZZ...

And finally, here's a roundup of Oscar-centric interviews, discussions predictions and such from this week.

The latest predictions from Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/war-horse-hugo-artist-spielberg-scorsese-oscars-266431

The Hollywood Reporter's Actress round table including this year's Telluride-related women: Glenn Close and Carey Mulligan (another #occupyoscar candidate).
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/gallery/thrs-awards-season-roundtable-series-265440

The Wrap also talks with Telluride women.  Close and Mulligan again as well as "We Need to Talk About Kevin's" Tilda Swinton:
http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/glenn-close-its-luxury-being-man-33021

A link to the Oscar Talk podcast of Anne Thompson and Kris Tapley:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-talk-verdict-on-war-horse-streep-as-iron-lady-theron-as-young-adult-animated-frontrunners

Sasha Stone's (Awards Daily) "State of the Race" focusing on Best Picture:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2011/11/the-state-of-the-race-the-wide-open-landscape-of-the-best-picture-race/

And a very interesting piece from ScreenDaily that talks about rumors that the Academy wants to move the Oscars up to January in 2013 and suggests that, if true, Telluride (and Toronto, Venice and New York) could become even more important in terms of Awards seasons.  Is that even possible?  Check it and see:
http://www.screendaily.com/awards/academy-awards/an-oscars-what-if/5034948.article

Occupy!/The Descendants Descends Upon Us/Butter Pix/Silver Linings/Albert Nobbs News/Oscar Pickin'/Odds and Ends

Good Thursday morning, America!

OCCUPY!

I have (and will) continued my "#occupyoscar" movement on Twitter advocating for some "dark horse" Oscar candidates.  Check it and follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

THE DESCENDANTS DROPS

It will come as no surprise to anyone that MTFB/FAC leads off with an immense amount of coverage of Alexander Payne's "The Descendants" which opened on the coasts last night and goes wider tomorrow.  The George Clooney starring vehicle has been the talk of Oscar bloggers since it opened up the Telluride fest as the patrons preview screening on the Friday afternoon that opened the festival (complete with Clooney and Payne and  a brief opportunity for to meet and converse with these two men who in all likelihood will be nominated for Oscar for their work on the film).  It was a fun afternoon.  You can actually read my Playlist review here: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/alexander_payne_george_clooney_riff_on_family_love_loss_death_and_the_choic

So without any further dithering, here is a ton of "Descendants" coverage, interviews and reviews from the past two days or so...

REVIEWS:

Peter Travers/The Rolling Stone: http://www.rollingstone.com/movies/reviews/the-descendants-20111115

The Playlist (New, not mine): http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/review-george-clooney-grapples-with-life-death-fatherhood-in-the-descendants

Alonso Duralde/The Wrap: http://www.thewrap.com/movies/column-post/%E2%80%98descendants%E2%80%99-mid-life-crisis-hawaiian-style-32785

A.O. Scott/The New York Times: http://movies.nytimes.com/2011/11/16/movies/descendants-with-george-clooney-review.html

Leonard Maltin/Movie Crazy: http://blogs.indiewire.com/leonardmaltin/the-descendants


The Daily Mubi Roundup of Reviews (this has a link to Telluride reviews which includes mine...by name...crazy huh?):  http://mubi.com/notebook/posts/alexander-paynes-the-descendants

INTERVIEWS:

Shailene Woodley interviews with...

Jeff Wells/Hollywood Elsewhere: http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2011/11/grace_under_pre.php

Katey Rich/Cinema Blend: http://www.cinemablend.com/new/Descendants-Breakout-Star-Shailene-Woodley-Reveals-What-George-Clooney-Has-Taught-Her-27917.html

Clooney and Payne...

Greg Ellwood/HitFix: http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/awards-campaign/posts/george-clooney-and-alexander-payne-talk-shooting-on-the-descendants-and-praise-the-wire

John Horn/The LA Times: http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/news/la-ca-descendants-payne-20111113,0,1621276.story

GENERAL STORIES:

Fox Searchlight: http://content.foxsearchlight.com/inside/node/5027

Pamela McClintock/The Hollywood Reporter: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/george-clooney-descendants-twilight-breaking-dawn-box-office-261881

Benjamin Mercer/The Atlantic: http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2011/11/why-eternal-bachelor-george-clooney-makes-for-a-great-family-man/248019/

PICTURES

The Playlist: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-descendants-new-images

Go see it.  It's good.

Descendats' IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1033575/

BUTTER PIX

One of the lesser lights of this year's fest (in my opinion...at The Playlist here: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/telluride_11_review_jennifer_garners_butter_churns_and_churns_but_doesnt_pr ) was the Jennifer Garner vehicle "Butter".  Word now comes that The Weinstein Company has moved its release to March of 2012.

New pictures are out at a variety of online venues.  Here's a link to //Film's story: http://www.slashfilm.com/olivia-wilde-hugh-jackman-butter/

Butter's IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1349451/

 SILVER LININGS

And a new film to add to the TFF #39 watchlist..."The Silver Linings Playbook".  Weinsteins have announced its planned release date and it seems very Telluride-friendly.  Check the release story from The Playlist: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/david-o-russells-the-silver-linings-playbook-gets-november-21-2012-release-date


Silver Linings IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1045658/


ALBERT NOBBS NEWS

Anne Thompson at Thompson on Hollywood talks to both Glenn Close and Janet McTeer about the gender bending period piece which is still generating Oscar buzz for Close and also some buzz for McTeer as well.  Check out my Telluride review for The Playlist here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/telluride_11_review_albert_nobbs_glenn_close_mia_wasikowska

Thompson with Close: http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-watch-glenn-close-talks-gender-bender-albert-nobbs

Thompson with McTeer: http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-watch-janet-mcteer-talks-stealing-albert-nobbs-from-glenn-close

Albert's IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1602098/


OSCAR PICKIN'

New Oscar prognostications and analysis from...

Movie City News' Gurus of Gold: http://moviecitynews.com/2011/11/gurus-o-gold-november-15-2011/

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily/State of the Race: http://www.awardsdaily.com/2011/11/the-state-of-the-race-a-storms-coming/

Oscar Poker: http://www.awardsdaily.com/podcasts/oscarpoker/episode55.mp3

Greg Ellwood's Contender Countdown at HitFix: http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/awards-campaign/posts/contender-countdown-can-margin-call-crash-the-oscar-party


ODDS AND ENDS

The Village Voice talks to David Cronenberg about "A Dangerous Method": http://www.villagevoice.com/2011-11-16/film/freudian-trip-in-dialogue-with-david-cronenberg/

24 Frames talks to the cast of "The Artist": http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/movies/2011/11/the-artist-cast-talks-envelope.html

The Playlist talks to Werner Herzog about (among other things) "Into the Abyss: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/interview-werner-herzog-talks-teaching-lock-picking-being-a-living-legend-and-into-the-abyss



FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER @Gort2  #occupyoscar