Almost to the Finish Line

Good Morning

ALMOST TO THE FINISH LINE

Oscars are three days away and a slew of "final" predictions can be found.  Here's a look at some of them.

Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly:
http://insidemovies.ew.com/2012/02/22/final-oscar-predictions-the-artist-dave-karger/

Brad Brevet at Rope of Silicon:
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/final-2012-oscar-predictions/

Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscar-predictions-the-artist-academy-awards-292628

And a final post from The Movie City News Gurus of Gold:
http://moviecitynews.com/2012/02/gurus-o-gold-the-last-gasp/

I'll have what passes for my predictions up on Sunday and then we'll all find out on Sunday night.

CANNES

Cannes speculation has already begun and I'll be looking at it in the next couple of weeks as we transition away from awards season and into TFF #39 spec territory.  HitFix had an interesting post up yesterday about Cannes re-emergence as an Oscar bellwether.  Here that is:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/cannes-regains-its-oscar-foresight

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Movieline is up with a look at the Best Foreign Language Oscar nominees in which Telluride films figure prominently.  See it here:
http://www.movieline.com/2012/02/22/oscar-roundtable-meet-this-years-best-foreign-language-feature-nominees/

Later

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Gurus Top 2/BAFTA Results & Anlaysis/Berlin Take Two/Descendants as Underdog/Berenice/Chico & Rita/In Darkness

Good morning.  Pardon the sporadic posting this last week and a half or so...been doing a show and was juggling too many objects simultaneously...
The show closes Saturday night...I'll do what I can...

GURUS TOP TWO

Movie City News has its Gurus of Gold participants lined up and their cumulative predictions about where the Oscar race stands right now (final ballots are due on Feb. 21).  In some categories, the Gurus are so decisive that it's really just a Top One...in some categories there isn't enough unanimity to really claim a Top Two...so they fudge...

Take a look:

Part One: http://moviecitynews.com/2012/02/gurus-o-gold-top-2in-it-pt-1-of-2/

Part Two: http://moviecitynews.com/2012/02/gurus-o-gold-top-2in-it-pt-2-of-2/

Consensus leaders that are so far in front so that I can label them prohibitive favorites:
Picture: The Artist
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer/Beginners
Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer/The Help
Original Screenplay: Woody Allen/Midnight in Paris
Foreign Film: A Separation
Animated Feature: Rango
Art Direction: Hugo
Original Score: The Artist
Original Song: Man or Muppet/The Muppets

If any of these lose on Feb. 26th, it will be regarded as a real upset.

All other 15 categories are close enough that we can't label them as done deals.

BAFTA RESULTS

THe Britisih Academy of Film Televsion Arts announced their winners last night.  It was a big night for "The Artist".  Here's te complete list of nominees and winners from The Hollywood Reporter:

BEST FILM
*WINNER: The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
The Help
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
My Week With Marilyn - Simon Curtis, David Parfitt, Harvey Weinstein, Adrian Hodges
Senna - Asif Kapadia, James Gay-Rees, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Manish Pandey
Shame - Steve Mcqueen, Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Abi Morgan
*WINNER: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy - Tomas Alfredson, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Robyn Slovo, Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan
We Need To Talk About Kevin - Lynne Ramsay, Luc Roeg, Jennifer Fox, Robert Salerno, Rory Stewart Kinnear

LEADING ACTOR
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
George Clooney, The Descendants
*WINNER: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame

LEADING ACTRESS
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
*WINNER: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin
Viola Davis, The Help

SUPPORTING ACTOR
*WINNER: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Ides of March

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Carey Mulligan, Drive
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Judi Dench, My Week With Marilyn
Melissa Mccarthy, Bridesmaids
*WINNER: Octavia Spencer, The Help

DIRECTOR
*WINNER: The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius
Drive, Nicolas Winding Refn
Hugo, Martin Scorsese
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Tomas Alfredson
We Need To Talk About Kevin, Lynne Ramsay

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
Attack The Block - Joe Cornish (Director/Writer)
Black Pond - Will Sharpe (Director/Writer), Tom Kingsley (Director), Sarah Brocklehurst (Producer)
Coriolanus - Ralph Fiennes (Director)
Submarine - Richard Ayoade (Director/Writer)
*WINNER: Tyrannosaur - Paddy Considine (Director), Diarmid Scrimshaw (Producer)

ANIMATED FILM
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret Of The Unicorn - Steven Spielberg
Arthur Christmas - Sarah Smith
*WINNER: Rango - Gore Verbinski

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
*WINNER: The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius
Bridesmaids, Annie Mumolo, Kristen Wiig
The Guard, John Michael Mcdonagh
The Iron Lady, Abi Morgan
Midnight In Paris, Woody Allen

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Descendants - Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash
The Help - Tate Taylor
The Ides of March - George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon
Moneyball - Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin
*WINNER: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy - Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
Incendies - Denis Villeneuve, Luc Déry, Kim Mcgraw
Pina - Wim Wenders, Gian-Piero Ringel
Potiche - François Ozon, Eric Altmayer, Nicolas Altmayer
A Separation - Asghar Farhadi
*WINNER: The Skin I Live In - Pedro Almodóvar, Agustin Almodóvar

DOCUMENTARY
George Harrison: Living In The Material World - Martin Scorsese
Project Nim - James Marsh, Simon Chinn
*WINNER: Senna - Asif Kapadia

CINEMATOGRAPHY
*WINNER: The Artist - Guillaume Schiffman
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo - Jeff Cronenweth
Hugo - Robert Richardson
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy - Hoyte Van Hoytema
War Horse - Janusz Kaminski

PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Artist - Laurence Bennett, Robert Gould
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows – Part 2 - Stuart Craig, Stephenie Mcmillan
*WINNER: Hugo - Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy - Maria Djurkovic, Tatiana Macdonald
War Horse - Rick Carter, Lee Sandales

COSTUME DESIGN
*WINNER: The Artist - Mark Bridges
Hugo - Sandy Powell
Jane Eyre - Michael O'Connor
My Week With Marilyn - Jill Taylor
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy - Jacqueline Durran

MAKE UP & HAIR
The Artist - Julie Hewett, Cydney Cornell
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows – Part 2 - Amanda Knight, Lisa Tomblin
Hugo- Morag Ross, Jan Archibald
*WINNER: The Iron Lady- Marese Langan
My Week With Marilyn - Jenny Shircore

SOUND
The Artist - Nadine Muse, Gérard Lamps, Michael Krikorian
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows – Part 2 - James Mather, Stuart Wilson, Stuart Hilliker, Mike Dowson, Adam Scrivener
*WINNER: Hugo - Philip Stockton, Eugene Gearty, Tom Fleischman, John Midgley
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy- John Casali, Howard Bargroff, Doug Cooper, Stephen Griffiths, Andy Shelley
War Horse - Stuart Wilson, Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson, Richard Hymns

EDITING
The Artist- Anne-Sophie Bion, Michel Hazanavicius
Drive - Mat Newman
Hugo - Thelma Schoonmaker
*WINNER: Senna - Gregers Sall, Chris King
Tinker Tailor Solider Spy - Dino Jonsater

S

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret Of The Unicorn- Joe Letteri
*WINNER: Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows – Part 2- Tim Burke, John Richardson, Greg Butler, David Vickery

Hugo - Rob Legato, Ben Grossman, Joss Williams

Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes - Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White

War Horse - Ben Morris, Neil Corbould

SHORT FILM
Chalk - Martina Amati, Gavin Emerson, James Bolton, Ilaria Bernardini
Mwansa The Great- Rungano Nyoni, Gabriel Gauchet
Only Sound Remains- Arash Ashtiani, Anshu Poddar
*WINNER: Pitch Black Heist - John Maclean, Gerardine O'Flynn
Two and Two - Babak Anvari, Kit Fraser, Gavin Cullen

SHORT ANIMATION
Abuelas - Afarin Eghbal, Kasia Malipan, Francesca Gardiner
Bobby Yeah - Robert Morgan
*WINNER: A Morning Stroll - Grant Orchard, Sue Goffe

ORIGINAL MUSIC
*WINNER: The Artist - Ludovic Bource
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
HUGO - Howard Shore
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy - Alberto Iglesias
War Horse - John Williams

THE ORANGE WEDNESDAYS RISING STAR AWARD (Voted For By The Public)
*WINNER: Adam Deacon
Chris Hemsworth
Chris O’Dowd
Eddie Redmayne
Tom Hiddleston

BERLIN TAKE TWO

Last week I noted that with the Berlin International Film Festival ongoing, we really are at the beginning of some kind of semi-informed speculation about what might appear at Telluride in September.  I noted that last year Berlin unspooled "The Turin Horse", "A Separation" and "Pina" all of which played at TFF #38.  Now, after a bit more digging, I can tell you that the trend goes back at least a few years.  These films played at Berlin and then made there way to the San Juans on Labor Day:
2010: "If I Want to Whistle, I Whistle"
2009: "London River"
2008: "Happy Go Lucky" and "I've Loved You So Long"

So it's a pretty safe bet that one to three films playing in Berlin's lineup will appear in T-ride in 7 months...now, if we could just figure out what they'll be...


THE DESCENDANTS AS UNDERDOG

As you check out The Gurus Best Picture chart above, you'll see that "Hugo" and "The Help" are the only other of the BP nominated films given any chance to unseat "The Artist" and not much of a chance at that.  I would concur with that assessment with the proviso that I have also been saying that "The Descendants" has a shot at the upset.  That seems to be a non-existent possibility at this point...except...

Maybe I'm NOT the only one...
Brooke Barnes at The New York Times outlines Fox Searchlight's continuing strategy for the Alexander Payne film...
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/10/movies/awardsseason/for-the-descendants-a-new-angle-in-the-oscar-race.html?_r=1

Additionally, The Race at The Hollywood Reporter has what they purport to be the last "Descendants" pre-Oscar interview here:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/george-clooney-oscar-the-descendants-289266

 BERENICE

Speaking of the inevitability of "The Artist", The Hollywood Reporter also had an interview with its female lead and Best Supporting Actress nominee (and the Mrs. to writer/director Michel Hazanavicius) Berenice Bejo:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/the-artist-berenice-bejo-oscar-287812

CHICO AND RITA



2010's (TFF #37) Patron special film was the animated "Chico and Rita" and it is nominated for Best Animated Feature.  Kris Tapley at Incontention/HitFix has a look at the production company responsible for it:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/gkids-makes-a-statement-this-season-with-two-animated-feature-nominees

IN DARKNESS

And finally, if there is any foreign film that has much of a chance to upset "A Separation" it is likely "In Darkness".  Annette Insdorf, Columbia professor and frequent moderator of panels at Telluride has a look at that film for The Huffington Post here:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/annette-insdorf/in-darkness-review_b_1258078.html?ref=entertainment

Later...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

THE DAY BEFORE AND HERE ARE THE PREDICTIONS! Plus some other folks and news.

In 24 hours we will know the Oscar nominees in 24 categories and all the speculation and thrashing about that we've been doing for the last 5 months gets focused for the 4 and 1/2 week run to Oscar night on Feb. 26.

Here's what The Film Awards Clearinghouse metric says will happen tomorrow morning (and here and there a comment or two from yours truly).  Metrics data from: Awards Daily, Incontention, Thompson on Hollywood, Rope of Silicon, Awards Circuit, Entertainment Weekly, The Hollywood Reporter, Film Misery, The Film Experience and Hollywood Elsewhere.

As far as The Best short Documentary, Live action and Animation…not even going to try.  I do hope for nominations for La Luna and Luminaris.

SOUND MIXING: War Horse, Transformers, Tintin, Super 8, Apes.  Also with a good shot: Hugo.

SOUND EDITING: War Horse, Apes, Tintin, Transformers, Hugo.  Maybe Super 8 or Rango.

VISUAL EFFECTS: Apes, Potter, Hugo, Tree of Life, Hugo, Transformers. Also a decent shot for Capt. America, X Men, Super 8, Pirates 4 or Mission Impossible.

ORIGINAL SCORE: The Artist, Hugo, War Horse, Dragon Tattoo, Extremely Loud.  Also in play: Tintin, Moneyball and The Help.

ORIGINAL SONG: The Help, Albert Nobbs, The Muppets (Life is a Happy Song), The Muppets (Pictures in My Head), Capt. America.  Also with a decent shot: Gnomeo and Juliet, W.E., Machine Gun Preacher and The Muppets (Man or Muppet).

MAKEUP: The Iron Lady, Albert Nobbs, The Artist.  Also: Gainesborg, Potter, Hugo

COSTUME: Hugo, The Artist, Jane Eyre, Marilyn, The Help.  Also: Anonymous and W.E.

ART DIRECTION: Hugo, Artist, Potter, Tinker, War Horse.  Maybe: Dragon Tattoo, Anonymous, The Help, Tree of Life.

CINEMATOGRAPHY: Tree of Life, Hugo, War Horse, Artist, Dragon Tattoo.  Maybe: Drive, Potter, Tinker.

FILM EDITING: Artist, War Horse, Hugo, Dragon Tattoo, Moneyball.  Maybe: Drive, Descendants, Tree of Life

ANIMATED FEATURE: Rango, Puss in Boots, Tintin, Arthur Christmas, Kung Fu Panda 2.  Possibles: Cars 2, Rio.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Project Nim, Paradise Lost 3, Buck, We Were Here, Pina.  Also possible: If a Tree Falls, Bill Cunningham.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: A Separation, In Darkness, Footnote, Pina, Monsieur Lazhar. Any others…Bullhead, Superclassico, Omar Killed Me, Warriors of the Rainbow.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Midnight in Paris, The Artist, Bridesmaids, 50/50, Win Win.  Possibles: Young Adult, A Separation, Tree of Life

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Descendants, Moneyball, Hugo, The Help, War Horse.  [Note: I’ll bet War Horse is even in trouble in this category].  Others that could sneak in: Dragon Tattoo, Tinker, Ides of March

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christopher Plummer/Beginners, Albert Brooks/Drive, Kenneth Brannagh/My Week with Marilyn, Jonah Hill/Moneyball and Nick Nolte/Warrior.  Could be: Max Von Sydow/Extremely Loud, Patton Oswalt/Young Adult and there appears to be a late surge for Ben Kingsley in Hugo.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Octavia Spencer and Jessica Chastain both from The Help, Berenice Bejo/Artist, Melissa McCarthy/Bridesmaids and Shailene Woodley/Descendants. [Note: I actually think that this category is pretty tight.  I also really have a difficult time believing the Academy will actually nominate McCarthy]  Others; Janet McTeer/Albert Nobbs, Vanessa Redgrave/Coriolanus and Carey Mulligan/Shame.

ACTOR: George Clooney/Descendants, Jean Dujardin/Artist, Brad Pitt/Moneyball, Michael Fassbender/Shame, Leonardo DiCaprio/J. Edgar. [Note: I flat out think that DiCaprio has faded completely and that opens the door for… Gary Oldman/Tinker or maybe Michael Shannon/Take Shelter or Demian Bichir/A Better Life]

ACTRESS: Viola Davis/The Help, Meryl Streep/Iron Lady, Michelle Williams/Marilyn, Tilda Swinton/We Need to Talk About Kevin, Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs.  Could sneak in: Rooney Mara/Dragon Tattoo or Charlize Theron/Young Adult.

DIRECTOR: Michel Hazanavicius/Artist, Alexander Payne/Descendants, Martin Scorsese/Hugo, Woody Allen/Midnight in Paris, Steven Spielberg/War Horse.  Again, I think the bloom is off the rose for Spielberg and this fifth spot will go either to David Fincher/Dragon Tattoo Terrence Malick/Tree of Life.

PICTURE: So much depends on whether there are 5 or 6 or 7 or 8…I’m going with seven and the metric says: The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, The Help, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball and War Horse.  And I will flaunt the metric and say War Horse does NOT get in and either Dragon Tattoo or Tree of Life does.  


I still feel that the new rules favor a surprise BP nomination for Tree of Life tomorrow morning.  Those that love it, love it and it needs to get past that 250-300 first place vote threshold (out of nearly 6,000) to get a nomination...I think it's doable.  

Now bring on tomorrow morning’s announcement so we can start parsing the results and complaining!  I've got experts and industry insiders who tell me that they'll share their reactions and insights into tomorrow's announcement.  Lined up: a screenwriter, a director, a producer, an editor, a PR guy and a couple of film bloggers


OTHERS LAST SHOTS:


Final pre-Oscar predictions from Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-academy-award-nominations-hugo-artist-dragon-tattoo-283762

And also from Sasha Stone at Awards Daily:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2012/01/2011predictions/

Greg Ellwood at HitFix.com:
http://www.hitfix.com/galleries/2012-oscar-nominations-predictions#1

Guy Lodge at Incontention.com:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/guy-lodge-predicts
THE ARTIST WINS PRODUCERS GUILD AWARD

The Artist continues to pile up the pew-Oscar awards winning the PGA award as Best FIlm on Saturday night.  Find the complete story at Hollywoodnews.Com:
http://www.hollywoodnews.com/2012/01/22/oscars-the-artist-takes-top-producers-guild-prize-analysis-awards-alley/

SUNDANCE UNDER WAY

And as promised MTFB/FAC has a man in transit.  Gant Lee will be on the ground in Park City this week and our plan is to post his Sundance coverage and impressions here...Check Gant's film blog CinemaBebop here:
http://cinemabebop.tumblr.com/post/16271538547/coming-up

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Closing in on Oscar

CLOSING IN ON OSCAR

We're down to the point where we could start counting down to next Tuesday's nomination announcement in hours rather than days.  The last 24 hours have seen a couple of key developments.  First, the announcement from The Academy yesterday of the nine foreign films still left to compete for the five nominations in that category and ultimately the Oscar.  Any number of the websites listed in the right hand column carried stories about that announcement.  I have linked to the Awards Daily story here:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2012/01/9-foreign-language-films-vie-for-oscar/

Four Telluride films have made the "semi-finals" A Separation, Pina, In Darkness and Footnote.  Not making the list, in something of a surprise, Le Havre.  So the dream of an all Telluride list of five films has ended, though the four that are left are all pretty legitimate players to be announced on Tuesday morning.  As a matter of fact, my final prediction on Monday will be the four T-ride films plus Canada's Monsieur Lazhar.

The other developing story is a slight rumbling/backlash against The Artist because, the thinking goes, general audiences may not be as enamored of the uniqueness of a black and white silent film in 2012.  we'll see pretty soon if the theory has any legs.

OSCAR PREDICTIONS

The latest Oscar prognostications from three really good sources:

Movie City News' latest Gurus of Gold chart:
http://moviecitynews.com/2012/01/gurus-o-gold-post-globespre-oscar-nominations/

Dave Karger's "Final" pre-Oscar nomination predictions:
http://insidemovies.ew.com/2012/01/17/oscar-predictions-dave-karger/

And the latest update from The Hollywood Reporter's resident Oscar guru Scott Feinberg:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/golden-globes-oscar-nominees-scott-feinberg-awards-season-279829

Of course, The Film Awards Clearinghouse will be up on Monday morning with my look at where the nominations will go and where we might see some surprises  (War Horse fading, Tattoo on the rise...)


FASSBENDER ON PARADE

Michael Fassbender has been and continues to be red hot and I am modestly confident that he will hear his name next Tuesday morning when the Best Actor nominees are announced.  He's featured this week on the cover of The Hollywood Reporter and THR has a couple of online articles in conjunction with that.  You can find those here:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/michael-fassbender-shirtless-full-frontal-nudity-shame-x-men-george-clooney-282871

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/THR-cover-michael-fassbender-shame-nudity-dangerous-method-282859


AND FINALLY

Two fun and interesting spec pieces about some of the far fetched things that could (but probably won't) happen on Tuesday morning.

From Kris Tapley of Incontention:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/off-the-carpet-as-the-music-stops-fringe-hopefuls-cross-their-fingers

And also from Steve Pond at The Wrap
http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/10-oscar-shocks-could-probably-wont-happen-34362

I'll have some other tidbits for you tomorrow.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Special to the FAC: Foreign, Editing, Cinematography

SPECIAL TO THE FAC: FOREIGN, CINEMATOGRAPHY, EDITING 9 DAYS OUT

Continuing to look at “below the line” Oscar categories and the state of the Oscar race in each of them as we get closer and closer to nomination morning.  The Oscar predictors utilized for this analysis:

Scott Feinberg (The Hollywood Reporter

Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)

Kris Tapley (Incontention/Hit Fix)

Brad Brevet, Rope of Silicon

Film Experience

Film Misery

Awards Circuit

BEST FOREIGN FILM

1)       A Separation

2)       Where do We Go Now

3)       In Darkness

4)       Le Havre

5)       Pina

Other possibles:

6)       Happy Happy

7)       Footnote

8)       Miss Bala

9)       Monsieur Lazhar

10)   Flowers of War

Others: Once Upon a Time in Anatolia, Superclassico, Postcard, Declaration of War, A Simple Life, and Colors of the Mountain

Comment: A Separation is the only absolute lock in this category and is the odds on favorite to win the Oscar.   As I have said, it should also be a contender for Best Original Screenplay (and maybe it will get one of those five nods, the odds are better today than they were a month ago, #occupyoscar).  The LA film critics awarded it Best Screenplay at their soiree last night.  Of course, Oscar ballots for the nomination process were due yesterday, I believe.

After A Separation 2 thru 4 are likely, but not 100% definite by any means.  Pina could well get the fifth slot, but so could ANY of the next 6 films or even Anatolia…

And then there is the possibility that Footnote bumps out Where Do We Go Now and all five films that get nominated played at TFF #38…it’s not likely…but it could happen.

Also, the level of success of “Telluride” films in this category is likely to raise the number of total Oscar noms from this year’s fest.  I have been saying, almost since the Tuesday after the close of the festival that TFF #38 would produce in the neighborhood of 20-24 nominees this year.  This category may pump that number up by a couple….we’ll see Jan. 24

EDITING

1)       The Artist

2)       War Horse

3)       Hugo

4)       Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

5)       Moneyball

Also in play:

6)       Drive

7)       The Descendants

8)       Extremely Loud

9)       The Tree of Life

10)   The Ides of March

Other possibles: The Help, Tinker Tailor, J. Edgar, Contagion, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Midnight in Paris, Warrior

Comment:  Conventional wisdom holds (and the history of the Oscars tends to prove) that it is very difficult to win Best Picture without a nomination in this category.  That’s why there was some interweb scuttlebutt this week about Fox Searchlight pushing hard for The Descendants in this category and also in Cinematography.  You can see from the above list that the “push” looks likes it has had at least some success. 

I was talking to a friend of mine this week who is an Academy member and an editor and he said that the best editing happens in a film where you don’t notice it.  He also said that Descendants had, in fact, been very well edited…so…

Personally, my guess is that if there is a departure from these five listed at the top, it would be Drive.

The A.C.E. announces its nominees for its Guild award on Monday…that might provide some clarity.

You also have to wonder if the War Horse swoon continues here.  Again, Monday’s guild announcement will be enlightening.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1)       The Tree of Life

2)       Hugo

3)       War Horse

4)       The Artist

5)       The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Others with a shot (heh heh):

6)       Drive

7)       Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows

8)       Tinker Tailor

9)       The Descendants

10)   Extremely Loud

Outside shots (again, heh heh): Moneyball, Melancholia, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Jane Eyre, J. Edgar, and A Dangerous Method.

Comment: The list is a tad behind events as some of my prognosticators haven’t updated in light of the guild announcement from the ASC earlier this week that left War Horse off the list (and if it can’t get some love in this category, where is it going to come from?)  The ASC nominated: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy instead.  Will that be how it comes down on Oscar announcement day?  Probably.

Coming Sunday….Documentary, Art Direction and Costumes…

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Big List/ROS Predicts/Shame News/TFF #38 Foreign Films/Tidbits

Good Morning ALL...and a very happy Boxing Day to everyone.

BIG LIST

Sasha Stone at Awards Daily passes along this link that is fantastic to anyone that is obsessive about this Film awards stuff.  It's incredibly comprehensive.  Thanks to David Hanks at davidhanks.com for the hard work.  Take a look, you'll be amazed:
http://www.davidhanks.com/film/2011biglist.html

ROPE OF SILICON PREDICTIONS

The latest Oscar predictions from Brad Brevet at Rope of Silicon reflecting some of the moves that he thinks have an effect or act as a precursor:
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/2012-oscar-predictions-massive-update-including-potter-bridesmaids-mccarthy-chastain-nolte/

SHAME NEWS

Several articles and/or posts regarding Steve McQueen's "Shame" as Fox Searchlight seeks to maximize its Oscar possibilities.

From Fox Searchlight:
http://content.foxsearchlight.com/inside/node/5066

http://content.foxsearchlight.com/inside/node/5059

http://content.foxsearchlight.com/inside/node/5056

Awards Daily:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2011/12/shame-featurette/

FirstShowing.net:
http://www.firstshowing.net/2011/watch-fantastic-new-story-featurette-for-steve-mcqueens-shame/

OregonLive:
http://blog.oregonlive.com/madaboutmovies/2011/12/steve_mcqueens_shame_the_engli.html



FOREIGN FILMS AT TFF #38

As is always the case, a number of the foreign films that played at this year's fest are making news in the foreign language Oscar race.  Here are some updates concerning those films and the FLF Oscar race in general...

An Overview from Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-best-foreign-language-separation-274871

A Separation (from Movie City News):
http://moviecitynews.com/2011/12/dp30-a-separation-writerdirector-asghar-farhadi/

In Darkness from Thompson on Hollywood:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-q-a-agnieszka-hollands-oscar-submission-in-darkness-returns-to-holocaust-its-the-borderline-human-experience

Le Havre from The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/aki-kaurismaki-s-le-havre-274660

TIDBITS

The Descendants From Fox Searchlight:
http://content.foxsearchlight.com/inside/node/5057

A Dangerous Method from The Chicago Sun Times:
http://www.suntimes.com/entertainment/movies/9122439-421/viggo-starring-in-different-sort-of-psychological-thriller.html#

and The New York Times:
http://carpetbagger.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/15/viggo-mortensen-and-dangerous-methods-fate/


Next blogpost will be Thursday, Dec. 29

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