In 24 hours we will know the Oscar nominees in 24 categories and
all the speculation and thrashing about that we've been doing for the last 5
months gets focused for the 4 and 1/2 week run to Oscar night on Feb. 26.
Here's what The Film Awards Clearinghouse metric says will happen
tomorrow morning (and here and there a comment or two from yours truly). Metrics data from: Awards Daily,
Incontention, Thompson on Hollywood, Rope of Silicon, Awards Circuit,
Entertainment Weekly, The Hollywood Reporter, Film Misery, The Film Experience
and Hollywood Elsewhere.
As far as The Best short Documentary, Live action and Animation…not
even going to try. I do hope for
nominations for La Luna and Luminaris.
SOUND MIXING: War Horse, Transformers, Tintin, Super 8, Apes.
Also with a good shot: Hugo.
SOUND EDITING: War Horse, Apes, Tintin, Transformers, Hugo.
Maybe Super 8 or Rango.
VISUAL EFFECTS: Apes, Potter, Hugo, Tree of Life, Hugo,
Transformers. Also a decent shot for Capt. America, X Men, Super 8, Pirates 4
or Mission Impossible.
ORIGINAL SCORE: The Artist, Hugo, War Horse, Dragon Tattoo,
Extremely Loud. Also in play: Tintin,
Moneyball and The Help.
ORIGINAL SONG: The Help, Albert Nobbs, The Muppets (Life is a
Happy Song), The Muppets (Pictures in My Head), Capt. America. Also with a decent shot: Gnomeo and Juliet,
W.E., Machine Gun Preacher and The Muppets (Man or Muppet).
MAKEUP: The Iron Lady, Albert Nobbs, The Artist. Also: Gainesborg, Potter, Hugo
COSTUME: Hugo, The Artist, Jane Eyre, Marilyn, The Help. Also: Anonymous and W.E.
ART DIRECTION: Hugo, Artist, Potter, Tinker, War Horse. Maybe: Dragon Tattoo, Anonymous, The Help,
Tree of Life.
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Tree of Life, Hugo, War Horse, Artist, Dragon
Tattoo. Maybe: Drive, Potter, Tinker.
FILM EDITING: Artist, War Horse, Hugo, Dragon Tattoo,
Moneyball. Maybe: Drive, Descendants,
Tree of Life
ANIMATED FEATURE: Rango, Puss in Boots, Tintin, Arthur Christmas,
Kung Fu Panda 2. Possibles: Cars 2, Rio.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Project Nim, Paradise Lost 3, Buck, We Were
Here, Pina. Also possible: If a Tree
Falls, Bill Cunningham.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: A Separation, In Darkness, Footnote, Pina, Monsieur
Lazhar. Any others…Bullhead, Superclassico, Omar Killed Me, Warriors of the
Rainbow.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Midnight in Paris, The Artist, Bridesmaids,
50/50, Win Win. Possibles: Young Adult,
A Separation, Tree of Life
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Descendants, Moneyball, Hugo, The Help, War
Horse. [Note: I’ll bet War Horse is even
in trouble in this category]. Others
that could sneak in: Dragon Tattoo, Tinker, Ides of March
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christopher Plummer/Beginners, Albert
Brooks/Drive, Kenneth Brannagh/My Week with Marilyn, Jonah Hill/Moneyball and
Nick Nolte/Warrior. Could be: Max Von
Sydow/Extremely Loud, Patton Oswalt/Young Adult and there appears to be a late
surge for Ben Kingsley in Hugo.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Octavia Spencer and Jessica Chastain both from
The Help, Berenice Bejo/Artist, Melissa McCarthy/Bridesmaids and Shailene
Woodley/Descendants. [Note: I actually think that this category is pretty
tight. I also really have a difficult
time believing the Academy will actually nominate McCarthy] Others; Janet McTeer/Albert Nobbs, Vanessa
Redgrave/Coriolanus and Carey Mulligan/Shame.
ACTOR: George Clooney/Descendants, Jean Dujardin/Artist, Brad
Pitt/Moneyball, Michael Fassbender/Shame, Leonardo DiCaprio/J. Edgar. [Note: I
flat out think that DiCaprio has faded completely and that opens the door for…
Gary Oldman/Tinker or maybe Michael
Shannon/Take Shelter or Demian Bichir/A Better Life]
ACTRESS: Viola Davis/The Help, Meryl Streep/Iron Lady, Michelle
Williams/Marilyn, Tilda Swinton/We Need to Talk About Kevin, Glenn Close/Albert
Nobbs. Could sneak in: Rooney
Mara/Dragon Tattoo or Charlize Theron/Young Adult.
DIRECTOR: Michel Hazanavicius/Artist, Alexander Payne/Descendants,
Martin Scorsese/Hugo, Woody Allen/Midnight in Paris, Steven Spielberg/War
Horse. Again, I think the bloom is off
the rose for Spielberg and this fifth spot will go either to David
Fincher/Dragon Tattoo Terrence Malick/Tree of Life.
PICTURE: So much depends on whether there are 5 or 6 or 7 or 8…I’m
going with seven and the metric says: The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, The
Help, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball and War Horse. And I will flaunt the metric and say War
Horse does NOT get in and either Dragon Tattoo or Tree of Life does.
I still feel that the new rules favor a surprise BP nomination for Tree of Life tomorrow morning. Those that love it, love it and it needs to get past that 250-300 first place vote threshold (out of nearly 6,000) to get a nomination...I think it's doable.
I still feel that the new rules favor a surprise BP nomination for Tree of Life tomorrow morning. Those that love it, love it and it needs to get past that 250-300 first place vote threshold (out of nearly 6,000) to get a nomination...I think it's doable.
Now bring on tomorrow morning’s
announcement so we can start parsing the results and complaining! I've got experts and industry insiders who tell me that they'll share their reactions and insights into tomorrow's announcement. Lined up: a screenwriter, a director, a producer, an editor, a PR guy and a couple of film bloggers
OTHERS LAST SHOTS:
Final pre-Oscar predictions from Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-academy-award-nominations-hugo-artist-dragon-tattoo-283762
And also from Sasha Stone at Awards Daily:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2012/01/2011predictions/
Greg Ellwood at HitFix.com:
http://www.hitfix.com/galleries/2012-oscar-nominations-predictions#1
Guy Lodge at Incontention.com:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/guy-lodge-predicts
THE ARTIST WINS PRODUCERS GUILD AWARD
The Artist continues to pile up the pew-Oscar awards winning the PGA award as Best FIlm on Saturday night. Find the complete story at Hollywoodnews.Com:
http://www.hollywoodnews.com/2012/01/22/oscars-the-artist-takes-top-producers-guild-prize-analysis-awards-alley/
SUNDANCE UNDER WAY
And as promised MTFB/FAC has a man in transit. Gant Lee will be on the ground in Park City this week and our plan is to post his Sundance coverage and impressions here...Check Gant's film blog CinemaBebop here:
http://cinemabebop.tumblr.com/post/16271538547/coming-up
OTHERS LAST SHOTS:
Final pre-Oscar predictions from Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-academy-award-nominations-hugo-artist-dragon-tattoo-283762
And also from Sasha Stone at Awards Daily:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2012/01/2011predictions/
Greg Ellwood at HitFix.com:
http://www.hitfix.com/galleries/2012-oscar-nominations-predictions#1
Guy Lodge at Incontention.com:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/guy-lodge-predicts
THE ARTIST WINS PRODUCERS GUILD AWARD
The Artist continues to pile up the pew-Oscar awards winning the PGA award as Best FIlm on Saturday night. Find the complete story at Hollywoodnews.Com:
http://www.hollywoodnews.com/2012/01/22/oscars-the-artist-takes-top-producers-guild-prize-analysis-awards-alley/
SUNDANCE UNDER WAY
And as promised MTFB/FAC has a man in transit. Gant Lee will be on the ground in Park City this week and our plan is to post his Sundance coverage and impressions here...Check Gant's film blog CinemaBebop here:
http://cinemabebop.tumblr.com/post/16271538547/coming-up
Follow me on Twitter @Gort2
