Almost to the Finish Line

Good Morning

ALMOST TO THE FINISH LINE

Oscars are three days away and a slew of "final" predictions can be found.  Here's a look at some of them.

Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly:
http://insidemovies.ew.com/2012/02/22/final-oscar-predictions-the-artist-dave-karger/

Brad Brevet at Rope of Silicon:
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/final-2012-oscar-predictions/

Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscar-predictions-the-artist-academy-awards-292628

And a final post from The Movie City News Gurus of Gold:
http://moviecitynews.com/2012/02/gurus-o-gold-the-last-gasp/

I'll have what passes for my predictions up on Sunday and then we'll all find out on Sunday night.

CANNES

Cannes speculation has already begun and I'll be looking at it in the next couple of weeks as we transition away from awards season and into TFF #39 spec territory.  HitFix had an interesting post up yesterday about Cannes re-emergence as an Oscar bellwether.  Here that is:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/cannes-regains-its-oscar-foresight

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Movieline is up with a look at the Best Foreign Language Oscar nominees in which Telluride films figure prominently.  See it here:
http://www.movieline.com/2012/02/22/oscar-roundtable-meet-this-years-best-foreign-language-feature-nominees/

Later

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THE DAY BEFORE AND HERE ARE THE PREDICTIONS! Plus some other folks and news.

In 24 hours we will know the Oscar nominees in 24 categories and all the speculation and thrashing about that we've been doing for the last 5 months gets focused for the 4 and 1/2 week run to Oscar night on Feb. 26.

Here's what The Film Awards Clearinghouse metric says will happen tomorrow morning (and here and there a comment or two from yours truly).  Metrics data from: Awards Daily, Incontention, Thompson on Hollywood, Rope of Silicon, Awards Circuit, Entertainment Weekly, The Hollywood Reporter, Film Misery, The Film Experience and Hollywood Elsewhere.

As far as The Best short Documentary, Live action and Animation…not even going to try.  I do hope for nominations for La Luna and Luminaris.

SOUND MIXING: War Horse, Transformers, Tintin, Super 8, Apes.  Also with a good shot: Hugo.

SOUND EDITING: War Horse, Apes, Tintin, Transformers, Hugo.  Maybe Super 8 or Rango.

VISUAL EFFECTS: Apes, Potter, Hugo, Tree of Life, Hugo, Transformers. Also a decent shot for Capt. America, X Men, Super 8, Pirates 4 or Mission Impossible.

ORIGINAL SCORE: The Artist, Hugo, War Horse, Dragon Tattoo, Extremely Loud.  Also in play: Tintin, Moneyball and The Help.

ORIGINAL SONG: The Help, Albert Nobbs, The Muppets (Life is a Happy Song), The Muppets (Pictures in My Head), Capt. America.  Also with a decent shot: Gnomeo and Juliet, W.E., Machine Gun Preacher and The Muppets (Man or Muppet).

MAKEUP: The Iron Lady, Albert Nobbs, The Artist.  Also: Gainesborg, Potter, Hugo

COSTUME: Hugo, The Artist, Jane Eyre, Marilyn, The Help.  Also: Anonymous and W.E.

ART DIRECTION: Hugo, Artist, Potter, Tinker, War Horse.  Maybe: Dragon Tattoo, Anonymous, The Help, Tree of Life.

CINEMATOGRAPHY: Tree of Life, Hugo, War Horse, Artist, Dragon Tattoo.  Maybe: Drive, Potter, Tinker.

FILM EDITING: Artist, War Horse, Hugo, Dragon Tattoo, Moneyball.  Maybe: Drive, Descendants, Tree of Life

ANIMATED FEATURE: Rango, Puss in Boots, Tintin, Arthur Christmas, Kung Fu Panda 2.  Possibles: Cars 2, Rio.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Project Nim, Paradise Lost 3, Buck, We Were Here, Pina.  Also possible: If a Tree Falls, Bill Cunningham.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: A Separation, In Darkness, Footnote, Pina, Monsieur Lazhar. Any others…Bullhead, Superclassico, Omar Killed Me, Warriors of the Rainbow.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Midnight in Paris, The Artist, Bridesmaids, 50/50, Win Win.  Possibles: Young Adult, A Separation, Tree of Life

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Descendants, Moneyball, Hugo, The Help, War Horse.  [Note: I’ll bet War Horse is even in trouble in this category].  Others that could sneak in: Dragon Tattoo, Tinker, Ides of March

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christopher Plummer/Beginners, Albert Brooks/Drive, Kenneth Brannagh/My Week with Marilyn, Jonah Hill/Moneyball and Nick Nolte/Warrior.  Could be: Max Von Sydow/Extremely Loud, Patton Oswalt/Young Adult and there appears to be a late surge for Ben Kingsley in Hugo.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Octavia Spencer and Jessica Chastain both from The Help, Berenice Bejo/Artist, Melissa McCarthy/Bridesmaids and Shailene Woodley/Descendants. [Note: I actually think that this category is pretty tight.  I also really have a difficult time believing the Academy will actually nominate McCarthy]  Others; Janet McTeer/Albert Nobbs, Vanessa Redgrave/Coriolanus and Carey Mulligan/Shame.

ACTOR: George Clooney/Descendants, Jean Dujardin/Artist, Brad Pitt/Moneyball, Michael Fassbender/Shame, Leonardo DiCaprio/J. Edgar. [Note: I flat out think that DiCaprio has faded completely and that opens the door for… Gary Oldman/Tinker or maybe Michael Shannon/Take Shelter or Demian Bichir/A Better Life]

ACTRESS: Viola Davis/The Help, Meryl Streep/Iron Lady, Michelle Williams/Marilyn, Tilda Swinton/We Need to Talk About Kevin, Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs.  Could sneak in: Rooney Mara/Dragon Tattoo or Charlize Theron/Young Adult.

DIRECTOR: Michel Hazanavicius/Artist, Alexander Payne/Descendants, Martin Scorsese/Hugo, Woody Allen/Midnight in Paris, Steven Spielberg/War Horse.  Again, I think the bloom is off the rose for Spielberg and this fifth spot will go either to David Fincher/Dragon Tattoo Terrence Malick/Tree of Life.

PICTURE: So much depends on whether there are 5 or 6 or 7 or 8…I’m going with seven and the metric says: The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, The Help, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball and War Horse.  And I will flaunt the metric and say War Horse does NOT get in and either Dragon Tattoo or Tree of Life does.  


I still feel that the new rules favor a surprise BP nomination for Tree of Life tomorrow morning.  Those that love it, love it and it needs to get past that 250-300 first place vote threshold (out of nearly 6,000) to get a nomination...I think it's doable.  

Now bring on tomorrow morning’s announcement so we can start parsing the results and complaining!  I've got experts and industry insiders who tell me that they'll share their reactions and insights into tomorrow's announcement.  Lined up: a screenwriter, a director, a producer, an editor, a PR guy and a couple of film bloggers


OTHERS LAST SHOTS:


Final pre-Oscar predictions from Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-academy-award-nominations-hugo-artist-dragon-tattoo-283762

And also from Sasha Stone at Awards Daily:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2012/01/2011predictions/

Greg Ellwood at HitFix.com:
http://www.hitfix.com/galleries/2012-oscar-nominations-predictions#1

Guy Lodge at Incontention.com:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/guy-lodge-predicts
THE ARTIST WINS PRODUCERS GUILD AWARD

The Artist continues to pile up the pew-Oscar awards winning the PGA award as Best FIlm on Saturday night.  Find the complete story at Hollywoodnews.Com:
http://www.hollywoodnews.com/2012/01/22/oscars-the-artist-takes-top-producers-guild-prize-analysis-awards-alley/

SUNDANCE UNDER WAY

And as promised MTFB/FAC has a man in transit.  Gant Lee will be on the ground in Park City this week and our plan is to post his Sundance coverage and impressions here...Check Gant's film blog CinemaBebop here:
http://cinemabebop.tumblr.com/post/16271538547/coming-up

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Closing in on Oscar

CLOSING IN ON OSCAR

We're down to the point where we could start counting down to next Tuesday's nomination announcement in hours rather than days.  The last 24 hours have seen a couple of key developments.  First, the announcement from The Academy yesterday of the nine foreign films still left to compete for the five nominations in that category and ultimately the Oscar.  Any number of the websites listed in the right hand column carried stories about that announcement.  I have linked to the Awards Daily story here:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2012/01/9-foreign-language-films-vie-for-oscar/

Four Telluride films have made the "semi-finals" A Separation, Pina, In Darkness and Footnote.  Not making the list, in something of a surprise, Le Havre.  So the dream of an all Telluride list of five films has ended, though the four that are left are all pretty legitimate players to be announced on Tuesday morning.  As a matter of fact, my final prediction on Monday will be the four T-ride films plus Canada's Monsieur Lazhar.

The other developing story is a slight rumbling/backlash against The Artist because, the thinking goes, general audiences may not be as enamored of the uniqueness of a black and white silent film in 2012.  we'll see pretty soon if the theory has any legs.

OSCAR PREDICTIONS

The latest Oscar prognostications from three really good sources:

Movie City News' latest Gurus of Gold chart:
http://moviecitynews.com/2012/01/gurus-o-gold-post-globespre-oscar-nominations/

Dave Karger's "Final" pre-Oscar nomination predictions:
http://insidemovies.ew.com/2012/01/17/oscar-predictions-dave-karger/

And the latest update from The Hollywood Reporter's resident Oscar guru Scott Feinberg:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/golden-globes-oscar-nominees-scott-feinberg-awards-season-279829

Of course, The Film Awards Clearinghouse will be up on Monday morning with my look at where the nominations will go and where we might see some surprises  (War Horse fading, Tattoo on the rise...)


FASSBENDER ON PARADE

Michael Fassbender has been and continues to be red hot and I am modestly confident that he will hear his name next Tuesday morning when the Best Actor nominees are announced.  He's featured this week on the cover of The Hollywood Reporter and THR has a couple of online articles in conjunction with that.  You can find those here:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/michael-fassbender-shirtless-full-frontal-nudity-shame-x-men-george-clooney-282871

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/THR-cover-michael-fassbender-shame-nudity-dangerous-method-282859


AND FINALLY

Two fun and interesting spec pieces about some of the far fetched things that could (but probably won't) happen on Tuesday morning.

From Kris Tapley of Incontention:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/off-the-carpet-as-the-music-stops-fringe-hopefuls-cross-their-fingers

And also from Steve Pond at The Wrap
http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/10-oscar-shocks-could-probably-wont-happen-34362

I'll have some other tidbits for you tomorrow.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Special to the FAC: Foreign, Editing, Cinematography

SPECIAL TO THE FAC: FOREIGN, CINEMATOGRAPHY, EDITING 9 DAYS OUT

Continuing to look at “below the line” Oscar categories and the state of the Oscar race in each of them as we get closer and closer to nomination morning.  The Oscar predictors utilized for this analysis:

Scott Feinberg (The Hollywood Reporter

Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)

Kris Tapley (Incontention/Hit Fix)

Brad Brevet, Rope of Silicon

Film Experience

Film Misery

Awards Circuit

BEST FOREIGN FILM

1)       A Separation

2)       Where do We Go Now

3)       In Darkness

4)       Le Havre

5)       Pina

Other possibles:

6)       Happy Happy

7)       Footnote

8)       Miss Bala

9)       Monsieur Lazhar

10)   Flowers of War

Others: Once Upon a Time in Anatolia, Superclassico, Postcard, Declaration of War, A Simple Life, and Colors of the Mountain

Comment: A Separation is the only absolute lock in this category and is the odds on favorite to win the Oscar.   As I have said, it should also be a contender for Best Original Screenplay (and maybe it will get one of those five nods, the odds are better today than they were a month ago, #occupyoscar).  The LA film critics awarded it Best Screenplay at their soiree last night.  Of course, Oscar ballots for the nomination process were due yesterday, I believe.

After A Separation 2 thru 4 are likely, but not 100% definite by any means.  Pina could well get the fifth slot, but so could ANY of the next 6 films or even Anatolia…

And then there is the possibility that Footnote bumps out Where Do We Go Now and all five films that get nominated played at TFF #38…it’s not likely…but it could happen.

Also, the level of success of “Telluride” films in this category is likely to raise the number of total Oscar noms from this year’s fest.  I have been saying, almost since the Tuesday after the close of the festival that TFF #38 would produce in the neighborhood of 20-24 nominees this year.  This category may pump that number up by a couple….we’ll see Jan. 24

EDITING

1)       The Artist

2)       War Horse

3)       Hugo

4)       Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

5)       Moneyball

Also in play:

6)       Drive

7)       The Descendants

8)       Extremely Loud

9)       The Tree of Life

10)   The Ides of March

Other possibles: The Help, Tinker Tailor, J. Edgar, Contagion, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Midnight in Paris, Warrior

Comment:  Conventional wisdom holds (and the history of the Oscars tends to prove) that it is very difficult to win Best Picture without a nomination in this category.  That’s why there was some interweb scuttlebutt this week about Fox Searchlight pushing hard for The Descendants in this category and also in Cinematography.  You can see from the above list that the “push” looks likes it has had at least some success. 

I was talking to a friend of mine this week who is an Academy member and an editor and he said that the best editing happens in a film where you don’t notice it.  He also said that Descendants had, in fact, been very well edited…so…

Personally, my guess is that if there is a departure from these five listed at the top, it would be Drive.

The A.C.E. announces its nominees for its Guild award on Monday…that might provide some clarity.

You also have to wonder if the War Horse swoon continues here.  Again, Monday’s guild announcement will be enlightening.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1)       The Tree of Life

2)       Hugo

3)       War Horse

4)       The Artist

5)       The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Others with a shot (heh heh):

6)       Drive

7)       Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows

8)       Tinker Tailor

9)       The Descendants

10)   Extremely Loud

Outside shots (again, heh heh): Moneyball, Melancholia, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Jane Eyre, J. Edgar, and A Dangerous Method.

Comment: The list is a tad behind events as some of my prognosticators haven’t updated in light of the guild announcement from the ASC earlier this week that left War Horse off the list (and if it can’t get some love in this category, where is it going to come from?)  The ASC nominated: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy instead.  Will that be how it comes down on Oscar announcement day?  Probably.

Coming Sunday….Documentary, Art Direction and Costumes…

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

NBR Awards/

Thursday, Dec. 1, 2011 Part Two

NBR ANNOUNCES

The National Board of Review announced their 2011 awards late this afternoon and here they are directly from the NBR website:


Awards for 2011:
Best Actor
George Clooney, The Descendants

Best Actress
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Best Adapted Screenplay
Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash

Best Animated Feature
Rango

Best Director
Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Best Documentary
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

Best Ensemble
The Help

Best Film
Hugo

Best Foreign Language Film
A Separation

Best Original Screenplay
Will Reiser, 50/50

Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Best Supporting Actress
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Breakthrough Performance
Felicity Jones, Like Crazy

Breakthrough Performance
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Debut Director
J.C. Chandor, Margin Call

NBR Freedom of Expression
Crime After Crime

NBR Freedom of Expression
Pariah

Special Achievement in Filmmaking
The Harry Potter Franchise - A Distinguished Translation from Book to Film

Spotlight Award
Michael Fassbender (A Dangerous Method, Jane Eyre, Shame, X-Men: First Class)

Top 10 Independent Films
(in alphabetical order) 50/50, Another Earth, Beginners, A Better Life, Cedar Rapids, Margin Call, Shame, Take Shelter, We Need To Talk About Kevin, Win Win

Top 5 Documentaries
(in alphabetical order) Born to be Wild, Buck, George Harrison: Living in the Material World, Project Nim, Senna

Top 5 Foreign Language Films
(in alphabetical order) 13 Assassins, Elite Squad: The Enemy Within, Footnote, Le Havre, Point Blank

Top Films
(in alphabetical order) The Artist, The Descendants, Drive, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, The Ides of March, J. Edgar, The Tree of Life, War Horse

Telluride Films in the NBR mix: 

The Descendants for Best Actor (George Clooney), Supporting Actress (Shailene Woodley)  and Adapted Screenplay (Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash)
We Need to Talk About Kevin for Best Actress(Tilda Swinton)
Spotlight Award for Michael Fassbender for (among others ) Shame and A Dangerous Method
Top 10 Films: The Descendants, The Artist
Top 10 Independent films: Shame, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Best Foreign Film: A Separation
Top 5 Foreign Films: Le Havre, Footnote
Top 5 Documentaries: George Harrison: Living in the Material World

Oscar Boosts to:

HUGO...a big boost with its double win as Best Film and for Scorsese as Best Director.  If you've been a reader of this space, you know that I've been making some noise about it's growing prospects over the past week or so.

THE DESCENDANTS...After getting a rough treatment from the threesome of the NYFCC, Gothams and Indy Spirit Awards the other day, this three win day is a good boost.

FASSBENDER...Stays in the Best Actor conversation with this acknowledgement today.

TREE OF LIFE probably got a little push toward a Best Pic nom with its inclusion in the Top Ten.  (again, along with Hugo trending, I think Tree has a really good shot here and for director as well.  But you know that if you've been reading this blog recently).

TOP TEN STUFF

Surpirses included the omissions of "The Help" (thought it was recognized as the Best Ensemble?) and Midnight in Paris.  I was also surprised by the inclusion of Harry Potter, Ides of March and J. Edgar.  Personally I would have included Beginners and Shame on the Ten Best list irrespective of their "independent" status.
 
Back on Monday with the next regular installment of MTFB/FAC.

Santa Fe Has Film Too/Fassbender Speaks/Foreign Films at the Fore/Oscar Talk/Herzog Persuades

It's Monday...my apologies...

SANTA FE FILM FESTIVAL

Santa Fe's 12th Independent Film Fest announced its 2011 lineup this weekend.  The fest is set for Oct. 20-23 and I'll be there during a good part of it...but I saw a lot of titles at Telluride...the overlap includes "The Artist" (the opening night film), "Le Havre" and "A Separation".  Titles that are intriguing to me that SFFF announced: "Coriolanus" (which I will miss as it is scheduled for Sunday late afternoon), "The Deep Blue Sea" and "Once Upon a Time in Anatolia", Canadian Oscar entry "Monsieur Lazhar" and "Sleeping Beauty".

The complete Santa Fe lineup can be found on their website here:
http://www.santafefilmfestival.com/schedule-3/

Last year's SFFF included TFF #37 films "Le Quattro Volte", The Princess of Montpensier" as well as Cannes Palme D"Or winner "Uncle Boonmee..."

I don't know how much or which films I will get in.  I'm also looking at trying to get in "The Ides of March" while I'm there...I'll let you know.

FASSBENDER SPEAKS

Red hot actor Michael Fassbender was represented at this year's Telluride Film Festival in two high profile projects, David Cronenberg's (unsuccessful) "A Dangerous Method" and Steve McQueen's (brilliant) "Shame".  Consequently Fassbender is getting a lot of media play.  I have a couple of interviews with him that appeared this week.  The first is from The New York Times.  Find it here:
http://artsbeat.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/07/michael-fassbenders-destructive-journey/?smid=tw-nytimesmovies&seid=auto

The other appears at BBC America.  You can access it here:
http://blogs.bbcamerica.com/anglophenia/2011/10/07/michael-fassbender-talks-about-sex-and-his-humbling-success/

Fassbender for Best Actor (for "Shame")...the campaign continues..and for Carey Mulligan in the same film!

FOREIGN FILMS

The deadline for submission for foreign film Oscar consideration has coma and gone.  The complete list includes (as you might expect) a good number of films that were a part of this year's TFF.  Among them:

Le Havre
Pina
The Turin Horse
A Separation
Footnote
In Darkness

The Academy will cut the complete list to 9 films from which the 5 nominated films will be chosen.  Telluride will be well represented when the nominations are announced in this category.

Also in foreign film news related to TFF #38 films, The Playlist's (indieWire) Christopher Bell reviews "The Turin Horse" here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/nyff_review_bela_tarrs_swan_song_the_turin_horse_is_despairing_but_unforget/

And Women and Hollywood (indieWire) interviews "In Darkness" director Agniezska Holland here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/womenandhollywood/archives/interview_with_agnieszka_holland_-_director_of_in_darkness/

OSCAR ITEMS

Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood) and Kris Tapley (InContention/HitFix) have their weekly conversation about the state of the Oscar race on their podcast Oscar Talk which you can link to here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/2011/10/07/oscar_talk_clooney_leads_best_actor_field_davis_leads_best_actress_carnage_/

Thompson also has provided her "weekly wrap" of newsworthy items that is both comprehensive and touches/links to many Telluride related stories.  Among topics that she lists are:

The Island President
A Dangerous Method
Into the Abyss
In Darkness
George Harrison:Living in the Material World

Plus a lot more.  You can find it here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/2011/10/08/weekly_wrap10/


HERZOG IS PERSUASIVE

And finally word this week that Werner Herzog has persuaded Sundance Selects to release his death penalty documentary "Into the Abyss"  before the end of the year.  He must be very good.  The story is here via The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/werner_herzog_convinces_sundance_selects_to_release_into_the_abyss_next_mon/