MTFB'S FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR TONIGHT

 FINAL OSCAR PREDICITONS FOR TONIGHT

Best Picture: Nomadland.  Upset Special: The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Best Direction: Chloe Zhao/Nomadland,  Upset Special: Emerald Fennell/Promising Young Woman.

Best Actress: Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman.  Upset Special: Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.

Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.  Upset Special: Anthony Hopkins/The Father.

Best Supporting Actress: Yuh-jung Youn/Minari.  Upset Special: Maria Bakalova/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.

Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah.  Upset Special: Sacha Baron Cohen/The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland.  Upset Special: The Father.

Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman.  Upset Special: The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Best International Feature: Another Round. Upset Special: Quo Vadis Aida.

Best Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher,. Upset Special: Crip Camp.

Best Animated Feature: Soul.  Upset Special: Wolfwalkers.

Best Original Score: Soul.  Upset Special: Mank.

Best Original Song: Speak Now/One Night in Miami.  Upset Special: Io Si/The Life Ahead.

Best Cinematography: Nomadland.  Upset Special: Mank.

Best Editing: The Trial of the Chicago 7.  Upset Special: Sound of Metal.

Best Production Design: Mank.  Upset Special: News of the World.

Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.  Upset Special: Emma.

Best Makeup/Hair: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.  Upset Special: Hillbilly Elegey

Best Sound: Sound of Metal.  Upset Special: News of the World.

Best Visual Effects: Tenet.  Upset Special: The Midnight Sky.

Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You.  Upset Special: Burrow.

Best Live Action Short: Two Distant Strangers.  Upset Special:  Feeling Through.

Best Documentary Short: A Concerto Is a Conversation.  Upset Special: A Love Song for Latasha

TFF Stats:

Nomadland nominated for six Oscars: Picture, Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Editing.  I am predicting it to win four: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography.

The Father nominated for six Oscars: Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Editing and Production Design.  I have predicted that it wins no Oscars tonight BUT...Hopkins is the Upset Special for Best Actor and his buzz has been growing for the past couple of weeks.  The Father is also the Upset Special for Adapted Screenplay.  

The only other TFF #47 is the Live Action Short nominee The Letter Room.

The most Oscars that TFF #47 films could snag in total tonight is 10.

The categories that feel to me like the ones that are going to be Oscar poll deciders are: Best Actress, the two screenplay categories,  Documentary, Song and, as always, the Shorts categories.

OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

Here are links to a number of Oscarologists for tonight's winners:

Sasha Stone/ Awards Daily

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Clayton Davis/Variety

Mark Johnson/Good as Gold/Awards Daily.

Eric Kohn and Anne Thompson/Indiewire (Screen Talk podcast)

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience 

Steve Pond/The Wrap

Joey Magidson/Awards Radar

Matt Neglia (and crew)/Next Best Picture

Jason Osiason/Fantastic Film Fans

Gregory Ellwood/The Playlist

And of course, for the last time this Oscar season, the link to the final collective predictions of The Gurus of Gold at Movie City News.

I'll have some post Oscar thoughts in tomorrow's regularly scheduled edition of MTFB.

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Oscar Winners Predix #7: Picture, Director and Lead Acting Categories / Last Gurus of Gold for This Season / New Cousins Project-Could It Play TFF #48?

 OSCAR WINNERS PREDIX #7- PICTURE, DIRECTOR, LEAD ACTING CATEGORIES

Here's my next to last attempt to predict this year's Academy Awards winners.  THE FINAL MTFB OSCAR PICKS will go up on Sunday morning.  As always, TFF participants are indicated in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Nomadland

2) The Trial of the Chicago 7

3) Promising Young Woman

4) Minari

5) Judas and the Black Messiah

6) Mank

7) Sound of Metal

8) The Father

BEST DIRECTION

1) Chloe Zhao/Nomadland

2) Emerald Ferrell/Promising Young Woman

3) David Fincher/Mank

4) Lee Issac Chung/Minari

5) Thomas Vinterberg/Another Round

BEST ACTRESS

1) Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman

2) Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

3) Andra Day/The United States vs. Billie Holiday

4) Frances McDormand/Nomadland

5) Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman

BEST ACTOR

1) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

2) Anthony Hopkins/The Father

3) Riz Ahmed/Sound of Metal

4) Steven Yeun/Minari

5) Gary Oldman/Mank

LAST GURUS OF GOLD FOR THIS SEASON 

The last Gurus of gold for this Oscar season is expected to drop at Movie City News in the next day or two.  You can expect to see collected takes from all of the Gurus for all 23 Oscar categories including the Short Film categories.

Other Gurus include Sasha Stone of Awards Daily, Peter Howell of the Toronto Star, Gregory Ellwood of The Playlist, Dave Karger of Turner Classic Movies and Steve Pond of The Wrap among others.

Bit of a Disclaimer: My predictions you see for the Gurus could have changed by Sunday morning!

NEW COUSINS PROJECT-COULD IT PLAY TFF #48?

Variety has a new interview out with film maker Mark Cousins that's focused on his new film The Story of Looking.  The article reveals that the film will be screened as a work in progress at the Swedish Visions du Real Festival.

The screening suggests that the new project could and likely will be available come Labor Day weekend.  Cousins has had an extensive track record at Telluride over the last several years with screenings of The Story of Film: An Odyssey, A Story of Children and Film and What Is This Film Called Love?

So, don't be surprised when the Telluride #48 lineup is announced if it includes The Story of Looking. 

The complete Variety article is linked here.

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Oscar Predix #6: Screenplays and Shorts / The Gurus Update / Cannes Commits and Late Breaking News from Cannes/ The Truffle Hunters Collect More Hardware

OSCAR PREDIX #6: SCREENPLAYS AND SHORTS

I'm back predicting the winners of this year's Oscars with less than a week left until the awards are passed out.  Today I am updating the Screenplay and Shorts categories.  As always TFF #47 film are in Bold.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Promising Young Woman

2) The Trial of the Chicago 7

3) Minari

4) Judas and the Black Messiah

5) Sound of Metal

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Nomadland

2) The Father

3) Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

4) One Night in Miami

5) The White Tiger

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) If Anything Happens I Love You

2) Burrow

3) Genuis Loci

4) Opera

5) Yes-People

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) A Concerto Is a Conversation

2) A Love Song for Latasha

3) Colette

4) Do Not Split

5) Hunger Ward

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Two Distant People

2) Feeling Through

3) The Present

4) The Letter Room

5) White Eye

I'll have another set of predictions on Thursday and then a special Sunday morning edition of  MTFB with final predictions for this long, long Oscar season.

THE GURUS UPDATE

The newest Gurus of Gold is up at Movie City News.  We were tasked this week with predicting Best Picture as well as picking three upsets that would make us happy...not that would necessarily actually win.

You can find the latest Gurus of Gold predictions linked here.

CANNES COMMMITS

Lots of outlets were reporting this week that Cannes International Film Festival Director Thierry Fremaux is adamantly claiming that the fest will take place July 6-17 and will be a live not virtual event.

Variety was the first source that I could find that was talking about the commitment to the date back on April 8th.  The article also says the effort to schedule the world premiere of Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch for Cannes has been ongoing.  

Subsequently, I have discovered further news stories that are bolder about the fest's plans.  Rappler.com reporting that:

“We are sure that Cannes will take place in July,” declared Thierry Fremaux, director of Cannes Film Festival in our recent video conversation.

Thierry vowed that the world’s most prestigious film festival, which he has led since 2004, will go live, in-person from July 6 to 17 this year."

Fremaux is also quoted as having lined about The French Dispatch as well as Paul Verhoeven's Benedetta for the French fest:

“Regarding films, I, of course, won’t tell you any title except the films that we all know were already selected from last year, including by Wes Anderson (The French Dispatch) and Paul Verhoeven (Benedetta). They will be back in the official selection.”

Fremaux is also quoted as saying that he expects to announce the lineup in late May or early June.

Should Cannes actually take place in July, the fall film fests, including Telluride would largely be unaffected.  For TFF that probably means that the sharing of what is an on average of eight or so films with Cannes could still be likely.

The complete article from Rappler.com is linked here.

LATE BREAKING NEWS FROM CANNES...

Variety is reporting this morning that the 74th Cannes Film Festival will open with Leos Carax's Annette starring Marion Cotillard and Adam Driver.  Variety reports the film will screen on July 7th and will play in competition.

From Variety.

Here's the trailer that dropped with the announcement from YouTube:

THE TRUFFLE HUNTERS COLLECT MORE HARDWARE

Fresh off their DGA for Best Direction of a Feature Documentary on April 10th,  The Truffle Hunters directors Michael Dweck and Gregory Kershaw won the American Society of Cinematographers Award for Best Cinematography for a Documentary this past weekend.

The Truffle Hunters was a selection of TFF #47.

Mank won Best Cinematography for a Feature Film beating out Nomadland in a bit of a surprise.

Indiewire has the coverage of the ASC wards here.

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New Gurus Predicting Oscar Winners / Concrete Cowboy Rides to Netflix / Talking Nomadland

 NEW GURUS PREDICITNG OSCAR WINNERS

The latest Gurus of Gold went up at Movie City News on Tuesday after Oscar nominations were announced.  We were tasked with predicting the likely winners in all of the feature film categories.  

As of my Guru ballot on Monday afternoon I have Nomadland winning 4 Oscars on April 25th: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography.  As for its other two nominations, I am currently predicting Carey Mulligan will win Best Actress for Promising Young Woman over Frances McDormand and The Trial of the Chicago 7 winning the Oscar for film editing.

As to the other acting categories, I'm predicting Boseman for Actor, Kaluuya for Supporting Actor and Close for Supporting Actress, though I match up with the overall Gurus picks in all the categories I've mentioned so far except on the Close call.  I'm pretty lonely there with the Gurus collectively picking Yuh-jung Youn from Minari.  I'm not totally out in the cold with the Close prediction.  Mark Johnson/Awards Daily and Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience have also chosen Close.  

My other early predictions (and when applicable, where I diverge from the Guru collective):

Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman

International Feature: Another round

Documentary Feature: Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution (The Gurus have Time)

Production Design: Mank

Costumes: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Animated Feature: Soul

Makeup/Hair: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Score: Soul

Song: Speak Now/One Night in Miami

Sound: Sound of Metal

Visual Effects: Tenet

Biggest locks (having a perfect Gurus score):

Chloe Zhao/Director-Nomadland

Chadwick Boseman/Actor-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Another Round-International Feature

Mank-Production Design

Soul-Best Score

Sound of Metal/Sound

Closest races:

Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman and The Trial of the Chicago7 are close.

Cinematography: Nomadland and Mank look to duke it out.

Editing: Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7 are tight.

Costumes: Ma Rainey, Emma and Mank are all close here.

Makeup/Hair: The battle is between Ma Rainey, Hillbilly Elegy and Mank.

Other semi-close races: Supporting Actress, Animated Feature and Documentary.

The complete Gurus of Gold first take on predicting Oscar winners is linked here.

CONCRETE COWBOY RIDES TO NETFLIX

Netflix has acquired Ricky Staub's Concrete Cowboy starring Idris Elba and Caleb McLaughlin.  The film was a selection of TFF #47.  Netflix has set April 2nd as the release date for the film and has released both a poster (above) and a trailer (below) from YouTube:

TALKING NOMADLAND

Bloomberg recently posted an interview with the original author of Nomadland Jessica Bruder.  That interview is linked here.

Meanwhile, Slashfilm linked a Chloe Zhao interview for the American Film Institute that's up on YouTube.  Here that is:

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Oscar Update: Best Picture, Director, Doc and International / BIFA Awards TFF Films / Nomadland-Where Are They Now? / The Latest from We Gurus

 OSACR UPDATE: BEST PICTURE, DIRECTOR, DOC AND INTERNATIONAL

TFF films in Bold.

BEST PICTURE (last updated Feb. 11th, past position in parentheses) 

1) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)

2) Nomadland (2)

3) Minari (3)

4) Mank (6)

5) Promising Young Woman (8)

6) One Night in Miami (4)

7) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (5)

8) Sound of Metal (-)

9) News of the World (10)

10) Judas and the Black Messiah (9)

Other Possibles: Da 5 Bloods, The Father

Hot: Mank, Sound of Metal, Promising Young Woman

Not: Da 5 Bloods, One Night in Miami, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

BEST DIRECTOR (last updated Feb. 4th, past position in parentheses) 

1) Chloe Zhao/Nomadland (1)

2) David Fincher/Mank (4)

3) Emerald Fennell/Promising Young Woman (9)

4) Aaron Sorkin/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (2)

5) Lee Isaac Chung/Minari (5)

6) Regina King/One Night in Miami (6)

7) Spike Lee/Da 5 Bloods (3)

8) Florian Zeller/The Father (10)

9) Paul Greengrass/News of the World (8)

10) Darius Marder/Sound of Metal (-)

Other Possibles: Shaka King/Judas and the Black Messiah, George C. Wolfe/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Hot: Emerald Fennell/Promising Young Woman, David Fincher/Mank, Florian Zeller/The Father, Darius Marder/Sound of Metal

Not: Aaron Sorkin/The Trial of the Chicago 7,Spike Lee/Da 5 Bloods

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE (last updated Jan. 25th, past position in parentheses) 

1) Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution (1)

2) Time (5)

3) Collective (3)

4) Dick Johnson Is Dead (2)

5) Boys State (4)

6) Welcome to Chechnya (7)

7) The Truffle Hunters (8)

8) All In: The Fight for Democracy (6)

9) 76 Days (-)

10) MLK/FBI (-)

Other Possibles: Gunda, My Octopus Teacher, The Painter and the Thief, The Mole Agent, Notturno 

Hot: Time, 76 Days, MLK/FBI

Not: Dick Johnson Is Dead, All In: The Fight for Democracy

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE (last updated Jan. 25th, past position in parentheses) 

1) Another Round (1)

2) Collective (3)

3) The Two of Us (6)

4) Quo Vadis, Aida (2)

5) La Llorona (-)

6) A Sun (8)

7) I'm No Longer Here (4)

8) Dear Comrades (7)

9) Night of the Kings (5)

10) Sun Children (-)

Other Possibles: The Man Who Sold His Skin, Charlatan, The Mole Agent, Hope, Better Days

Hot: The Two of Us, La Llorona, A Sun, Sun Children

Not: Quo Vadis Aida, I'm No Longer Here, Night of the Kings

BIFA AWARDS TFF FILMS

Florain Zeller's The Father and Chloe Zhao's Nomadland both were lauded as a part of the British Independent Film Awards this past week.

Anthony Hopkins won Best Actor and Zeller and Christopher Hampton won for Best Screenplay for The Father.  The film also Best Editing.

Nomadland was named Best International Film.

Variety has the complete rundown of BIFA winners here.

NOMADLAND-WHERE ARE THEY NOW?

Esquire put up a story on Friday wherein Adrienne Westenfeld interviews the author of Nomadland, Jessica Bruder that catches up with some of the real life nomads that appeared in the film.  Linda, Bob and Swankie all get mentioned in the interview.  If you enjoyed the film and the people who make the film what it is, it's worth a read.

The interview is linked here.

THE LATEST FROM WE GURUS

The latest Gurus of Gold went up over the weekend at Movie City News.  Categories included there are Best Picture, Director and the Screenplay categories.  You may notice that my Best Picture predictions above are already a little different than what I reported to MCN last week.  It's a quck shifting landscape!

Here's the link to the new Gurus.

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Oscar Update: Animated Feature, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Song /Gurus: The Second Batch / SAG Awards and TFF / BAFTA and Telluride

OSCAR UPDATE

In today's post I am updating nomination predictions in five categories.  The film's previous ranking is to the right in parentheses. TFF films are in Bold.

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Soul (1)

2) Wolfwalkers (2)

3) Over the Moon (3)

4) Onward (4)

5) Earwig and the Witch (8)

6) A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (5)

7) The Croods: A New Age (9)

8) Trolls: World Tour (7)

9) The Willoughbys (6)

10) Demon Slayer (10)

Other Possibles: Lupin III

Hot: Earwig and the Witch, The Croods: A New Age

Not: The Willoughbys

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Nomadland (2)

2) Mank (1)

3) News of the World (3)

4) Tenet (4)

5) Judas and the Black Messiah (5)

6) Da 5 Bloods (8)

7) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (9)

8) Minari (6)

9) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (7)

10) First Cow (10)

Other Possibles: One Night in Miami, Midnight Sky, I'm Thinking of Ending Things

Hot: Da 5 Bloods, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Not: Minari, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

FILM EDITING

1) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)

2) Nomadland (2)

3) Tenet (5)

4) News of theWorld (4)

5) Mank (3)

6) The Father (6)

7) Da 5 Bloods (9)

8) One Night in Miami (8)

9) Judas and the Black Messiah (10)

10) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (7)

Other Possibles: Promising Young Woman, Minari, Sound of Metal

Hot: Da 5 Bloods

Not: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Soul (1)

2) News of the World (2)

3) Midnight Sky (4)

4) Mank (3)

5) Tenet (6)

6) Minari (5)

7) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (7)

8) Da 5 Bloods (8)

9) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (-)

10) The Little Things (9)

Other Possible: Hillbilly Elegy

Hot: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Not: Mank

ORIGINAL SONG

1) One Night in Miami/Speak Now (1)

2) The Life Ahead/Seen (2)

3) Over the Moon/Rocket to the Moon (3)

4) The Prom/Wear Your Crown (4)

5) The Trial of the Chicago 7/Hear My Voice (5)

6) Eurovision/Husavik (6)

7) Borat Subsequent Moviefilm/ Wuhan Flu (7)

8) Judas and the Black Messiah/Fight for You (10)

9) Trolls: World Tour/Just Sing (8)

10) Mank/If Only You Could Save Me (9)

Other Possibles: Miss Americana/Only the Young, Onward/Carried Me with You, 40 Year Old Version/Poverty Porn

Hot/Not: A really stable category right now.

GURUS: THE SECOND BATCH

The second wave of collective predictions from The Movie City News' Gurus of Gold was up just before the weekend.  Categories include: Best Picture, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Documentary and International Feature.

Check out the latest from my fellow Gurus here.

SAG AWARDS AND TFF

The Screen Actors Guild nominees were announced and TFF films produced three nominees;  Anthony Hopkins was nominated for Best actor and Olivia Colman for Best Supporting Actress fpr TFF #47 announced film The Father.  Hopkins would have been one of 2020's Tribute recipients had the fest been able to go on.  Frances McDormand was nominated for Best Actress for Nomadland.

All three actors are currently predicted to be Oscar nominees in their respective categories by MTFB.

Here's a link to the complete list of SAG nominees from Variety.

BAFTA LONG LISTS AND TELLURIDE

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) released their long lists of potential nominees for film this past week.  This is the first listing of films that could eventually be nominated for BAFTA awards.

Among the films named to the list were six from the TFF #7 and one from TFF #46.  In a bit of a surprise the most named TFF #47 film was Francis Lee's Ammonite with nine mentions followed by both Nomadland and The Father with eight.

Ammonite's long list mentions were for: Best British Film, Best Actress (Kate Winlset), Supporting Actress (Saoirse Ronan), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup and Hair, Score and Production Design.

Nomaldland is listed for Best Film, Direction (Chloe Zhao), Actress (Frances McDormand), Supporting Actor (David Stratharin), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Films Editing and Sound.

The Father is listed for Best Film, Best British Film, Direction (Florian Zeller), Best Actor (Anthony Hopkins), Supporting Actress (Olivia Colman), Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing and Production Design.

Other TFF films making the long lists were:

The Truffle Hunters with two: Best Film in a Language Other than English and Best Documentary.

All In: The Fight for Democracy: Best Documentary

MLK/FBI: Best Documentary

And from TFF #46- The Assistant with three mentions: Best Direction (Kitty Green), Best Actress (Julia Garner) and Original Screenplay

The complete long lists are linked here from BAFTA's website.

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NBR, AFI, Spirit Noms and More / Oscar Updates: Animated Feature, Production Design, Score and Song / The Gurus are Back

 NBR, AFI, SPIRIT NOMS AND MORE

If you are a fan of Oscar precursors, you have to have been giddy with delight this week as a cascade of  high profile organizations revealed their choices for the best films of this pandemic marred year.  Herewith a breakdown of the major awards news of the week with emphasis, of course on films that were selected to play at the Telluride Film Festival.

NATIONAL BOARD OF REVIEW

The NBR list named Spike Lee's Da 5 Bloods as film of the year.  TFF #47's Nomadland was touted as having the Best Cinematography for the year.  Nomadland also was named as one of the top ten films of the year in addition to TFF #46's First Cow.  Other TFF #47 films making the NBR grade:

Apples on the list of five Best Foreign Language Films

All In: The Fight for Democracy and The Truffle Hunters on the list of five Best Documentaries 

The Climb (from TFF #46) as one of the 10 Best Independent Films

Missing from the NBR lists: The Father, Ammonite, The Assistant, Notturno, The Way I See It, MLK/FBI, Charlatan and Never Going to Snow Again.

Here's Deadline's coverage of the NBR lists.

AMERICAN FILM INSTITUTE

The AFI list of the ten best films for 2020 included Chloe Zhao's Nomadland.  It was the only TFF film from either #47 or #46 to make the list.  

Nomadland joined Da 5 Bloods, Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Soul and Sound of Metal as films honored by both NBR and AFI.

The complete AFI list is here from Next Best Picture.

SPIRIT NOMINATIONS

Then there were the nominations this week for the Independent Spirit awards. Never rarely Sometimes Always lead all films with seven total nominations.  TFF #47's Nomadland was well represented with five including Best Feature, Best Director (Zhao), Best Female Lead (McDormand) Best Cinematography and Best Editing.

TFF #46 films First Cow and The Assistant also landed Spirit nominations.

First Cow is nominated for Best Feature, Director (Reichardt) and Supporting Male (Lee)

The Assistant is nominated for Female Lead (Green), Best First Screenplay and Best Cinematography.

Indieiwire can be accessed here for the complete list of all Spirit nominees.

USC SCRIPTER

The USC Scripter nominees were also announced this week.  The award goes to the best adaptation of existing material into a screenplay.  The five nominees included: Nomadland (TFF #47) and First Cow (TFF #46).  Other nominees were One Night in Miami, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom and Bad Education.

NEW YORK FILM CRITICS ONLINE

Telluride films that were lauded by the NYFCO on their top ten list included The Assistant, First Cow and Nomadland.  Also singled out for specific praise by the group were Nomadland's Chloe Zhao for Best Director.  Nomaldand was also heralded for Best Cinematography.

The Way I See It was named Best Documentary Feature.

The organization named Minari as Best Film of the Year.

The complete listing of all of the NYFCO awards is here from Variety.

OSCAR UPDATES: MORE FRESH PREDIX

Last Monday I began adding Oscar categories to my ongoing listing of Oscar nomination predictions.  Beyond the eight major categories that I have been tracking for months I added Documentary and International Features as well as Best Cinematography and Film Editing.

Today I'm going to add first time nomination predictions for Animated Feature, Production Design, Original Score and Original Song.   Here goes nothin'!

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1)Soul

2) Wolfwalkers

3) Over the Moon

4) Onward

5) A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

6) The Willoughbys

7) Trolls: World Tour

8) Earwig and the Witch

9) The Croods: A New Age

10) Demon Slayer

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Mank

2) Mulan

3) News of the World

4) Emma

5) The Personal History of David Copperfield

6) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

7) Tenet

8) The Trial of the Chicago 7

9) Midnight Sky

10) One Night in Miami

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Soul

2) News of the World

3) Mank

4) Midnight Sky

5) Minari

6) Tenet

7) The Trial of the Chicago 7

8) Da 5 Bloods

9) The Little Things

10) One Night in Miami

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Speak Now/One Night in Miami

2) Seen/The Life Ahead

3) Rocket to the Moon/Over the Moon

4) Wear Your Crown/The Prom

5) Hear My Voice/The Trial of the Chicago 7

6) Husavik/Eurovision Song Contest

7) Wuhan Flu/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

8) Just Sing/Trolls World Tour

9) If Only You Could Save Me/Mank

10) Fight for You/Judas and the Black Messiah

THE GURUS ARE BACK

For the third straight year I've been invited to be a Guru of Gold for Movie City News.  The first posting of that cumulative Oscar prognostication group went up yesterday morning.  In addition to yours truly, the site includes such Oscar predicting luminaries as: 

Awards Daily's Sasha Stone

TCM's Dave Karger

The Playlist's Gregory Ellwood

Collider's Jeff Sneider

The Wrap's Steve Pond

The Film Experience's Nathaniel R

The Toronto Star's Pete Howell

Awards Daily's Good as Gold's Mark Johnson 

Black Film and TV's Wilson Morales

MCN's David Poland 

and Oscar experts Thelma Adams and Robyn Bahr

Looking at the first pass from the Gurus...I land in agreement with collective at the #1 spot in all five categories that are included: Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor and Animated Feature.

Here's the link to the brand new Gurus.

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Oscar Update: Best Supporting Actress / Deadline's Most Anticipated Films of 2021 / I'm Back In for 2020-21

 OSCAR UPDATE: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Supporting Actress updated since I last posted this category on  Nov. 30th.  A performer's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 performers are indicated in Bold.

1) Amanda Seyfried/Mank (2)

2) Olivia Colman/The Father (1)

3) Yuh-jung Youn/Minari (5)

4) Ellen Burstyn/Pieces of a Woman (3)

5) Glenn Close/Hillbilly Elegy (4)

6) Maria Bakalova/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (6)

7) Helena Zengel/News of the World (7)

8) Saoirse Ronan/Ammonite (8)

9) Jodie Foster/The Mauritanian (-)

10) Candace Bergen/Let Them Talk (-)

Other possibles: Dominique Fishback/Judas and the Black Messiah, Swankie/Nomadland

Hot: Yuh-jung Youn/Minari. Jodie Foster/The Mauritanian, Candace Berger/Let Them Talk

Not: Lily Collins/Mank, Swankie/Nomadland

Coming on Monday in the first MTFB post for 2021: Best Supporting Actor

DEADLINE'S MOST ANTICIPATED FILMS OF 2021 (with an emphasis on film festivals)

Andreas Wiseman and Tom Grater have curated a list of films thought to be likely to be released during the 2021 calendar year with particular emphasis on what might be probable/possible fare for film festivals.  With Sundance already having released their lineup, these films are those that are most likely to be named for whatever form of fest that will exist for Berlin, Cannes, Venice, Toronto and, of course Telluride.

I have glanced through the list and come up with a Telluride possible list (some of which is also wishful thinking/hopes and dreams).  They are:

Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

Joel Coen's The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24)

Jean-Pierre Jeunet's Big Bug (Netflix)

Ari Folman's Where Is Anne Frank?

Asghar Farhadi's A Hero

Zhang Yimou's Impasse

Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch (Searchlight)

Mike Mills' C'mon C'mon (A24)

Paul Thomas Anderson's Untitled Project (MGM)

Michael Showalter's The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight)

Tom McCarthy's Stillwater (Focus)

Leos Carax's Annette (Amazon)

Mia Hansen-Love's Bergman Island 

Taika Waititi's Next Goal Wins (Searchlight)

Todd Haynes' Untitled Velvet Underground Documentary (Apple TV+)

The complete article and list of films from Deadline is linked here.

I'M BACK IN FOR 2020-21

I've been keeping it under wraps for a couple of weeks, but as the calendar is set to turn the page and mercifully bring 2020 to a close ( and because I've had a second email), I can reveal that I will be back for the third consecutive year as one of Movie City News' Gurus of Gold. 

I'm not sure when our first post will be out...soon for sure, after the first of the year.  I'm also not sure who my fellow Gurus will be this year.  I'm interested in finding that out as well.  At any rate, you can be sure that I'll let you know all that as quickly as I can.

 I want to say thanks to head Guru Wrangler Ray Pride for asking me back.

Happy New Year to all!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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Oscar Predicted Winners: The Final Eight Categories / The Final Gurus of Gold / Ruimy Takes A Stab at Cannes

OSCAR PREDICTED WINNERS: THE FINAL EIGHT CATEGORIES

Here's a look at where I'm at predicting what films will win Oscars on Sunday night for Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and the three Shorts categories.

My FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS for all 24 categories will be posted SUNDAY MORNING...because it's all still fluid.  The predictions below even post date some of those I have for the latest Gurus of Gold at Movie City News (see below).

As always TFF #46 films are in Bold


COSTUMES

1) Little Women
2) Once Upon a Time...
3) Jojo Rabbit
4) The Irishman
5) Joker

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Bombshell
2) 1917
3) Joker
4) Judy
5) Maleficent

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) 1917
2) The Irishman
3) Avengers: Endgame
4) The Lion King
5) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

SOUND MIXING

1) 1917
2) Ford v Ferrari
3) Once Upon a Time...
4) Joker
5) Ad Astra

SOUND EDITING

1) Ford v Ferrari
2) 1917
3) Joker
4) Once Upon a Time...
5) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Brotherhood
2) The Neighbors Window
3) Nefta Football Club
4) Saria
5) A Sister

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone (If You're a Girl)
2) St. Louis Superman
3) Life Overtakes Me
4) In the Absence
5) Walk Run Cha Cha

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Hair Love
2) Kitbull
3) Dcera (Daughter)
4) Sister
5) Memorable


THE FINAL GURUS OF GOLD

The last Gurus of Gold predictions for Oscar Night are up over at Movie City News.  In addition to yours truly, other Gurus this season have included: Thelma Adams, Gregory Ellwood, Mark Johnson, Dave Karger, David Poland, Steve Pond, Sasha Stone and Jeff Sneider.

According to the Gurus' collective wisdom TFF #46 films will have wins in the following categories:

Best Actress: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Best Original Screenplay: Parasite
Best International Film: Parasite
Best Film Editing: Ford v Ferrari

There are a few categories where TFF #46 films are in the #2 spot and, at least in theory, pose the greatest chance to knock off the predicted winners.  They are:

Best Picture: Parasite
Best Director: Bong Joon-ho/Parasite
Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story
Best Actor: Adam Driver/Marriage Story
Best International Film: Pain and Glory
Best Editing: Parasite
Best Makeup/Hair: Judy
Best Sound Editing: Ford v Ferrari
Best Sound Mixing: Ford v Ferrari

At most, TFF #46 films could win 14 Oscars Sunday night as at least one TFF #46 film is competing in that many categories.  Categories with zero TFF #46 nominees are: Best Supporting Actor, Documentary Feature, Animated Feature, Cinematography, Costumes, Visual Effects, Song and the three Shorts categories.

I want to give a quick shout of gratitude to Ray Pride and Movie City News for asking me back for a second season as one of the Gurus of Gold.  Hope to be back again next season.


RUIMY TAKES A STAB AT CANNES

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel has posted what he terms a "Cannes Spitball" as he takes an educated guess at a number of films that seem to stand a good chance of making the lineup for the Cannes Film Fest.  Cannes runs this year from May 12-23.

as readers of this space know, the Cannes/Telluride share list is usually considerable.  If you look at the lineups of the two fests over the past ten

 years, you can definitely see the connection:

In 2019, eight films played both fests
2018-7
2017-8
2016-7
2015-6
2014-9
2013-9
2012-10
2011-5
2010-9

That's an average of 7.8 films per year that crossover.

So, thinking about what will play at Cannes and then ultimately evaluating the titles that do eventually get chosen is a good way to make some guesses about a potential TFF #47 set of film choices.

Soooo...what does Jordan have to say in his post and, ultimately, which titles does he suggest for Cannes that seem a potential pick of TFF programmers?

Here are some films from his list that, at least this far out, might be TFF possibles:

Mia Hansen-Love's Bergman Island
Chloe Zhao's Nomadland
Sophia Coppola's On the Rocks
Nanni Moretti's Tre Piani
Ulrich Seidel's Bose Spiele

Jordan's complete post is linked here.


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