MTFB Oscar Take: Winner Prediction Updates for Docs, Animated and International Feature and More / SAG Awards Announced / The Lost Daughter Wins USC Scripter

I have updated Oscar predictions for winners in these six categories today.  TFF #48 Films are Bold.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Summer of Soul

2) Flee

3) Attica

4) Ascension

5) Writing with Fire

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Encanto

2) The Mitchells vs. the Machines

3) Flee

4) Luca

5) Raya and the Last Dragon

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Drive My Car

2) The Worst Person in the World

3) The Hand of God

4) Flee

5) Luana: A Yak in the Classroom

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Dune

3) The Tragedy of Macbeth

4) Nightmare Alley

5) West Side Story

BEST EDITING

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) King Richard

4) Don't Look Up

5) tick, tick...BOOM

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Dune

2) Nightmare Alley

3) West Side Story

4) The Power of the Dog

5) The Tragedy of Macbeth

A couple of quivers of movement since these categories were last updated on Feb. 17th.  Flee and Luca swap spots in Best Animated Feature as do King Richard and Don't Look Up for Editing.

The current predictions for the other 14 feature categories at the moment are:

BEST PICTURE

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Belfast

3) West Side Story

4) King Richard

5) Dune

6) Licorice Pizza

7) CODA

8) Don't Look Up

9) Drive My Car

10) Nightmare Alley

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast

3) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story

4) Licorice Pizza/Paul Thomas Anderson

5) Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car

BEST ACTRESS

1) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos

2) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

3) Kristen Stewart/Spencer

4) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter

5) Penelope Cruz/Parallel Mothers

BEST ACTOR

1) Will Smith/King Richard

2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog

3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM

4) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth

5) Javier Bardem/Being the Ricardos

1) BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

2) Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog

3) Aujanue Ellis/King Richard

4) Jesse Buckley/The Lost Daughter

5) Judi Dench/Belfast

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog

2) Troy Kotsur/CODA

3) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast

4) Jesse Plemons/The Power of the Dog

5) J.K. Simmons/Being the Ricardos

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Belfast

2) Licorice Pizza

3) Don't Look Up

4) King Richard

5) The Worst Person in the World

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) CODA

3) The Lost Daughter

4) Drive My Car

5) Dune

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) Don't Look Up

4) Encanto

5) Parallel Mothers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) No Time to Die/No Time to Die

2) Dos Oruguitas/Encanto

3) Be Alive/King Richard

4) Down to Joy/Belfast

5) Somehow You Do/Four Good Days

BEST COSTUMES

1) Cruella

2) Dune

3) Nightmare Alley

4) West Side Story

5) Cyrano

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune

2) Spiderman: No Way Home

3) No Time to Die

4) Shang Chi

5) Free Guy

BEST SOUND

1) Dune

2) West Side Story

3) Not Time to Die

4) The Power of the Dog

5) Belfast

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Dune

2) Cruella

3) The Eyes of Tammy Faye

4) The House of Gucci

5) Coming 2 America

SAG AWARDS ANNOUNCED

Last night was a good night for Sundance breakout CODA and not so great a night for TFF #48 films at the SAG Awards.  CODA won Best Cast and Troy Kotsur won Best Supporting Actor for his role as the deaf father of a hearing child.

TFF #48 films only scored one win and that was an expected victory for Will Smith as Best Actor for King Richard.

Other winners were:

Best Actress: Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

The wins for Smith and DeBose solidify their status as Oscar frontrunners.  Kotsur's win certainly improves his chances in a Oscar race that seems, or at least seemed, to be close between him and The Power of the Dog's Kodi Smit-McPhee.  And does Chastain's win mean that she's now the person to beat in a crazy and divided Best Actress Oscar field?

The Dog went 0 for 3 last night with Smit-McPhee, Benedict Cumberbatch and Kirsten Dunst all coming up short. Belfast was 0 for 2 with Caitriona Balfe dropping in Supporting Actress and the film missing for Best Cast.  King Richard also missed for Best Cast as well as for Aujanue Ellis as Supporting Actress.  The final miss for TFF #48 performers was Olivia Colman from The Lost Daughter for Best Actress.

Full coverage is linked here from CNN.

THE LOST DAUGHTER WINS THE USC SCRIPTER

The USC Scripter Award is annually presented to the Best Adapted Screenplay in the eyes of the Scripter's awards voters.  Most thought that Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog was the likely winner here but voters opted for a different TFF #48 film honoring Maggie Gyllenhaal and the script for The Lost Daughter.  The USC Scripter Award also recognizes the writer(s) of the original source material being adapted.  That included author Elena Ferrante who wrote the novel that the film is based on.

Dopesick won the award for adapted television writing.

Other screenplays nominated included Passing, Dune and The Tragedy of Macbeth.

Full details are here from Variety.

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NBR, AFI, Spirit Noms and More / Oscar Updates: Animated Feature, Production Design, Score and Song / The Gurus are Back

 NBR, AFI, SPIRIT NOMS AND MORE

If you are a fan of Oscar precursors, you have to have been giddy with delight this week as a cascade of  high profile organizations revealed their choices for the best films of this pandemic marred year.  Herewith a breakdown of the major awards news of the week with emphasis, of course on films that were selected to play at the Telluride Film Festival.

NATIONAL BOARD OF REVIEW

The NBR list named Spike Lee's Da 5 Bloods as film of the year.  TFF #47's Nomadland was touted as having the Best Cinematography for the year.  Nomadland also was named as one of the top ten films of the year in addition to TFF #46's First Cow.  Other TFF #47 films making the NBR grade:

Apples on the list of five Best Foreign Language Films

All In: The Fight for Democracy and The Truffle Hunters on the list of five Best Documentaries 

The Climb (from TFF #46) as one of the 10 Best Independent Films

Missing from the NBR lists: The Father, Ammonite, The Assistant, Notturno, The Way I See It, MLK/FBI, Charlatan and Never Going to Snow Again.

Here's Deadline's coverage of the NBR lists.

AMERICAN FILM INSTITUTE

The AFI list of the ten best films for 2020 included Chloe Zhao's Nomadland.  It was the only TFF film from either #47 or #46 to make the list.  

Nomadland joined Da 5 Bloods, Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Soul and Sound of Metal as films honored by both NBR and AFI.

The complete AFI list is here from Next Best Picture.

SPIRIT NOMINATIONS

Then there were the nominations this week for the Independent Spirit awards. Never rarely Sometimes Always lead all films with seven total nominations.  TFF #47's Nomadland was well represented with five including Best Feature, Best Director (Zhao), Best Female Lead (McDormand) Best Cinematography and Best Editing.

TFF #46 films First Cow and The Assistant also landed Spirit nominations.

First Cow is nominated for Best Feature, Director (Reichardt) and Supporting Male (Lee)

The Assistant is nominated for Female Lead (Green), Best First Screenplay and Best Cinematography.

Indieiwire can be accessed here for the complete list of all Spirit nominees.

USC SCRIPTER

The USC Scripter nominees were also announced this week.  The award goes to the best adaptation of existing material into a screenplay.  The five nominees included: Nomadland (TFF #47) and First Cow (TFF #46).  Other nominees were One Night in Miami, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom and Bad Education.

NEW YORK FILM CRITICS ONLINE

Telluride films that were lauded by the NYFCO on their top ten list included The Assistant, First Cow and Nomadland.  Also singled out for specific praise by the group were Nomadland's Chloe Zhao for Best Director.  Nomaldand was also heralded for Best Cinematography.

The Way I See It was named Best Documentary Feature.

The organization named Minari as Best Film of the Year.

The complete listing of all of the NYFCO awards is here from Variety.

OSCAR UPDATES: MORE FRESH PREDIX

Last Monday I began adding Oscar categories to my ongoing listing of Oscar nomination predictions.  Beyond the eight major categories that I have been tracking for months I added Documentary and International Features as well as Best Cinematography and Film Editing.

Today I'm going to add first time nomination predictions for Animated Feature, Production Design, Original Score and Original Song.   Here goes nothin'!

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1)Soul

2) Wolfwalkers

3) Over the Moon

4) Onward

5) A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

6) The Willoughbys

7) Trolls: World Tour

8) Earwig and the Witch

9) The Croods: A New Age

10) Demon Slayer

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Mank

2) Mulan

3) News of the World

4) Emma

5) The Personal History of David Copperfield

6) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

7) Tenet

8) The Trial of the Chicago 7

9) Midnight Sky

10) One Night in Miami

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Soul

2) News of the World

3) Mank

4) Midnight Sky

5) Minari

6) Tenet

7) The Trial of the Chicago 7

8) Da 5 Bloods

9) The Little Things

10) One Night in Miami

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Speak Now/One Night in Miami

2) Seen/The Life Ahead

3) Rocket to the Moon/Over the Moon

4) Wear Your Crown/The Prom

5) Hear My Voice/The Trial of the Chicago 7

6) Husavik/Eurovision Song Contest

7) Wuhan Flu/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

8) Just Sing/Trolls World Tour

9) If Only You Could Save Me/Mank

10) Fight for You/Judas and the Black Messiah

THE GURUS ARE BACK

For the third straight year I've been invited to be a Guru of Gold for Movie City News.  The first posting of that cumulative Oscar prognostication group went up yesterday morning.  In addition to yours truly, the site includes such Oscar predicting luminaries as: 

Awards Daily's Sasha Stone

TCM's Dave Karger

The Playlist's Gregory Ellwood

Collider's Jeff Sneider

The Wrap's Steve Pond

The Film Experience's Nathaniel R

The Toronto Star's Pete Howell

Awards Daily's Good as Gold's Mark Johnson 

Black Film and TV's Wilson Morales

MCN's David Poland 

and Oscar experts Thelma Adams and Robyn Bahr

Looking at the first pass from the Gurus...I land in agreement with collective at the #1 spot in all five categories that are included: Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor and Animated Feature.

Here's the link to the brand new Gurus.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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Saturday Night was Precursor Night / The Last Big Domino... / More Anticipation

SATURDAY NIGHT WAS PRECURSOR NIGHT

I wrote on Thursday that we'd have a busy Saturday night with guild awards being announced from Directors, Cinematographers, the Cinema Audio Society, the USC Scripter Award for adapted screenplay and the Annie Awards.  TFF #46 was represented in the glut of news with Ford v Ferrari's win from the film's design from the Cinema Audio Society.

Other winners:

DGA: Sam Mendes/1917
USC Scripter: Greta Gerwig/Little Women
ASC (cinematography): Roger Deakins/1917
Annie: Klaus

The DGA win for Mendes has shifted the sentiment to 1917 to be the favorite for Mendes to win the Best Director Oscar and the film to win Best Picture.  A number of number pros pointed out, however, that three of the last four years the DGA winner won the directing Oscar but the film did not win Best Picture:

2015: Alejandro Inarritu wins DGA and Oscar for The Revenant. Best Pic: Spotlight
2016: Damian Chazelle wins DGA and Oscar for La La Land.  Best Pic: Moonlight
2017: Guillermo Del Toro wins DGA and Oscar and Shape of Water wins Best Pic.
2018: Alfonso Cuaron wins DGA and Oscar for Roma.  Green Book wins Best Pic.

So the recent past suggests that 1917 winning Best Picture isn't a lock.  Lots of folks are saying that perhaps Parasite pulls off the surprise a la Moonlight.  My guess is that, should anything besides 1917 wins that it will actually be Tarantino's Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood.

The other results from Saturday's awards suggest good Oscar news for Gerwig and Deakins.  The Annie award for Netflix's Klaus may be less predictive.  I'm still expecting Toy Story 4 to take the Oscar statue in two weeks.


THE LAST BIG DOMINO...

The last big precursor is the Writers Guild Awards that will announced Saturday.  Nominees are:

WGA Adapted Screenplay nominees:

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women

The Oscar nominees differ with the inclusion of The Two Popes and exclusion of A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.

WGA Original Screenplay nominees:

1917
Booksmart
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Parasite

The Oscar nominees differ with Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood in and Booksmart out.


MORE ANTICIPATION

I'm continuing to look at the various lists of "most anticipated" films for this and that source as I'm at the very start of trying to get a bead on which films might be in line for consideration of inclusion at TFF #47.

Today I'm looking at the list of 68 films from Vulture.  Those films are listed by announced release date so it's easy to look at their list beginning with the films listed for September or later as well as films that are still listed with release dates to be announced.

That said, here's what Vulture is looking forward to that feels like a TFF #47 possible:

I'm Thinking of Ending Things (Charlie Kaufman)
Mank (David Fincher)
Dune (Denis Villenueve)
News of the World (Paul Greengrass)
Bergman Island (Mia Hansen Love)
The French Dispatch (Wes Anderson)
Nomadland (Chloe Zhao)
On the Rocks (Sophia Coppola)

The complete Vulture article is linked here.


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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

The Writers Take the Spotlight / The Wrap Raps with Del Toro (who also has a new gig)

Welcome to Monday, my friends...

THE WRITERS TAKE THE SPOTLIGHT

Writing awards were the name of the game over the weekend as The Writers Guild of America named their best screenplays of the year.  Last Night the WGA named Get Out as Best Original Screenplay and James Ivory's Call Me By Your Name as Best Adapted Screenplay.  

The awards probably signal the Oscar winners in each category and also may portend which film takes home the Best Picture prize on Mar. 4th. as many Oscarologists believe that the win gives Get Out a boost with Oscar voting not set to get under way for another week.

Ivory also won the USC Scripter prize for adapted screenwriting for Call Me By Your Name.

With the WGA and Scripter awards announced that leaves only next week's BAFTA awards as the final precursor/harbinger for this Oscar season.  Oscar final voting will open Feb. 20th and closes a week later.

The Independent Spirit Awards will be announced on Saturday, Mar. 3rd with the Oscar ceremony to occur the following night.

Here's Indiewire's coverage of the USC Scripter Award announcement.

And their coverage of the WGA.

THE WRAP RAPS WITH DEL TORO

Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water is right in the thick of the Oscar Best Picture race with the most nominations of any film (13).  It is considered by serious Oscar watchers as a very real threat to take home the big prize.  As such, Del Toro has been very accessible to media these past few months since Telluride and that has included a recent sit down with The Wrap.

The video is just shy of 30 minutes as Del Toro echoes many of the themes and ideas that audiences hear in T-ride just over five months ago.

You can access the story and video here.

  

One other quick note about Del Toro.  We know that he will not be in Telluride for TFF #45 as we discovered overnight that he has been named to preside over the Venice Film Fest jury.  I could have seen him back over Labor Day in support of Alfonso Cuaron's Roma much like Alejandro Inarritu was in T-ride last year for Del Toro's film.  

Roma is rumored to be a Cannes selection and it wouldn't be a shock to me to see it appear on the TFF #45 lineup.

That's your truncated MTFB for this Monday.  More on Thursday.