SAG and DGA Nominees and TFF / MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays and More / Interviews and Profiles

SAG AND DGA NOMINEES AND TFF

The Screen Actors Guild and the Directors Guild of America announced their nominees for excellence in film in 2023 yesterday.  Four TFF films received nominations from SAG for acting excellence totaling seven nominations:

The Holdovers: Paul Giamatti-Lead Actor, Da'Vine Joy Randolph-Supporting Actress.

Poor Things: Emma Stone-Lead Actress and Willem Dafoe-Supporting Actor

Nyad: Annette Bening-Lead Actress and Jodie Foster-Supporting Actress

Rustin: Colman Domingo-Lead Actor

I was surprised that Mark Ruffalo was not nominated for Poor Things and that PT also missed for Best Ensemble.

Meanwhile, the Directors' Guild also announced their five nominees yesterday and two TFFers made the list of five names.  Alexander Payne for The Holdovers and Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things were each nominated.  They were joined Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) and Greta Gerwig (Barbie).

The Sag Awards will be presented on Feb. 24th and the DGA will announce their winners on Feb. 10th.

The Producers Guils announces their nominees tomorrow.

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

Today I'm updating the Screenplay, International Feature, Documentary Feature, Cinematography and Editing categories.  As usual TFF #50 films are in Bold.  A film's previous position on the MTFB Oscar chart is listed in parentheses.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Holdovers (1)

2) Past Lives (3)

3) Anatomy of a Fall (4)

4) May December (5)

5) Maestro (-)

Alternates: Air, Saltburn, The Iron Claw.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Poor Things (3)

3) American Fiction (2)

4) Barbie (-)

5) Killers of the Flower Moon (4)

Alternates: All of Us Strangers, The Zone of Interest, and Are You There God, It's Me Margaret. 

BEST DOCUMENTARY 

1) American Symphony (1)

2) 20 Days in Mariupol (2)

3) Beyond Utopia (3)

4) Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (4)

5) Four Daughters (5)

Alternates: The Eternal Memory, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project and Stamped from the Beginning.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) The Zone of Interest (1)

2) Society of the Snow (3)

3) The Taste of Things (2)

4) The Teachers' Lounge (4)

5) Fallen Leaves (5)

Alternates: Perfect Days, 20 Days in Mariupol and Totem.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Killers of the Flower Moon (2)

3) Poor Things (3)

4) Maestro (4)

5) The Zone of Interest (5)

Alternates: Saltburn, Barbie and The Color Purple.

FILM EDITING

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Poor Things (3)

3) Killers of the Flower Moon (2)

4) Barbie (4)

5) The Holdovers (-)

Alternates: Maestro, Anatomy of a Fall and Air.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Jodie Foster and Annette Bening for Nyad from Netflix via YouTube.

Annette Bening for Nyad from Awards Watch.

Behind the Scenes for The Zone of Interest from The Hollywood Reporter.

Behind the Scenes for All of Us Strangers from FirstShowing.net.

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Guilds, Globes and TFF / Another Bill Pence Remembrance / MTFB Oscar Update: Picture, Direction and More

GUILDS, GLOBES AND MORE

The films from TFF #49 (and #48) continue to have a tough time gaining traction during this awards season.  Since Monday's post we have witnessed Guild nominations from, among others, actors, directors, cinematographers and art directors.  The Producers Guild will announce its ten nominees later today and The Critics Choice Awards ceremony will occur Sunday and those two events are the last two big puzzle pieces/precursors prior to the Jan. 24th Oscar nomination announcement.  The WGA nominees won't influence voters as they will not announce their nominees until the day after Oscar nomination.  additionally, the WGA has ruled out so many probable nominees that the two lists are almost guaranteed to be wildly different.

Here's what was revealed this week from The Globes and Guilds regarding TFF films:

Golden Globes:  TFF films had a total of nine GG nominations going into Tuesday night's ceremony.  To recap, those were:

TAR (3): Best Picture-Drama, Actress (Blanchett), Screenplay

Women Talking (2): Best Screenplay and Score

Living (1): Best Actor/Drama (Nighy)

Empire of Light (1): Best Actress/Drama (Colman)

Close (1): Best Picture Not in the English Language

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (from TFF #48) (1): Best Animated Film

Of the nine nominations, TAR won twice for Cate Blanchett as Best Actress/Drama and for Todd Field's screenplay.  The complete list of GG winners is linked here.

Among the Guilds:

The Screen Actors Guild nominees from TFF films were: Best Actress Cate Blanchett/TAR, Best Actor: Bill Nighy/Living and Women Talking as Outstanding Cast.  Here's the link to all of the SAG nominees.

The Directors Guild nominated Todd Field/TAR.  Meanwhile, Charlotte Wells was nominated for Best First Time Director for Aftersun. The complete list of DGA Feature film nominees is linked here.  Field and Wells join Previously announced nominees for Documentary feature direction.  That list included two docs that played at TFF: Laura Poitras/All the Beauty and the Bloodshed and Matthew Heineman for Retrograde.

The American Society of Cinematographers nominated Roger Deakins/Empire of Light and Darius Khondji/Bardo for best documentary feature.  All of the ASC nominees can be found here. 

The Art Directors Guild nominated both Bardo and TAR for Best Production Design for a Contemporary Feature and Marcel the Shell with Shoes On for Animated feature.

All ADG nominees can be found here.

ANOTHER BILL PENCE REMEMBRANCE

Howie Mosvhovitz, who has worked at the Telluride Film Festival since 1992 as a part of the Student Symposium staff, penned another very nice remembrance of TFF co-founder Bill Pence who died early last month. The piece was posted by the Colorado Sun on Tuesday.

Movshovitz writes in part:

"What was Bill like? He adored the movies. He was tremendously focused and disciplined. He expected the same from people who worked on the festival. He made sure to get the best film prints possible (years before digital); he expected good projection; he chose to work with people he found capable and interesting, and with Stella and Tom Luddy created a Telluride family of some of the most devoted lovers of cinema in the world — Chuck Jones, Werner Herzog, Bertrand Tavernier, Ken Burns, Louis Malle, the international programmer Pierre Rissient. Bill Pence never made himself a star — the festival and the films were the stars."

The complete article is linked here.

In today's post I am updating Oscar predictions for Best Picture, Best Direction, Best Animated, Documentary and International features which were last posted on Dec. 29th.  TFF #49 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

2) Top Gun: Maverick (4)

3) The Fabelmans (2)

4) The Banshees of Inisherin (3)

5) Avatar: The Way of Water (5)

6) Elvis (7)

7) TAR (6)

8) Women Talking (8)

9) All Quiet on the Western Front (11)

10) Babylon (9)

11) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (9)

12) Triangle of Sadness  (12)

Stealth possibilities: Aftersun, Living, GDT's Pinocchio, The Woman King, RRR

BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans (1)

2) The Daniels/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

3) James Cameron/Avatar: The Way of Water (4)

4) Martin McDonagh/The Banshees of Inisherin (3)

5) Todd Field/TAR (5)

6) Baz Luhrman/Elvis (7)

7) Sarah Polley/Women Talking (6)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) GDT's Pinocchio (1)

2) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (2)

3) Turning Red (3)

4) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (4)

5) Wendall and Wild (5)

6) Lightyear (-)

7) Strange World (7)

Out: In-Oh

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (1)

2) All That Breathes (3)

3) Fire of Love (2)

4) Descendant (5)

5) Navalny (4)

6) The Territory (6)

7) Retrograde (7)

BEST  INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) All Quiet on the Western Front (1)

2) Close (2)

3) Decision to Leave (3)

4) Argentina 1985 (5)

5 Eo (New)

6) Saint Omer (6)

7) Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (7)

Out: Holy Spider

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MTFB Oscar Take: Winner Prediction Updates for Docs, Animated and International Feature and More / SAG Awards Announced / The Lost Daughter Wins USC Scripter

I have updated Oscar predictions for winners in these six categories today.  TFF #48 Films are Bold.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Summer of Soul

2) Flee

3) Attica

4) Ascension

5) Writing with Fire

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Encanto

2) The Mitchells vs. the Machines

3) Flee

4) Luca

5) Raya and the Last Dragon

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Drive My Car

2) The Worst Person in the World

3) The Hand of God

4) Flee

5) Luana: A Yak in the Classroom

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Dune

3) The Tragedy of Macbeth

4) Nightmare Alley

5) West Side Story

BEST EDITING

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) King Richard

4) Don't Look Up

5) tick, tick...BOOM

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Dune

2) Nightmare Alley

3) West Side Story

4) The Power of the Dog

5) The Tragedy of Macbeth

A couple of quivers of movement since these categories were last updated on Feb. 17th.  Flee and Luca swap spots in Best Animated Feature as do King Richard and Don't Look Up for Editing.

The current predictions for the other 14 feature categories at the moment are:

BEST PICTURE

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Belfast

3) West Side Story

4) King Richard

5) Dune

6) Licorice Pizza

7) CODA

8) Don't Look Up

9) Drive My Car

10) Nightmare Alley

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast

3) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story

4) Licorice Pizza/Paul Thomas Anderson

5) Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car

BEST ACTRESS

1) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos

2) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

3) Kristen Stewart/Spencer

4) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter

5) Penelope Cruz/Parallel Mothers

BEST ACTOR

1) Will Smith/King Richard

2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog

3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM

4) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth

5) Javier Bardem/Being the Ricardos

1) BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

2) Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog

3) Aujanue Ellis/King Richard

4) Jesse Buckley/The Lost Daughter

5) Judi Dench/Belfast

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog

2) Troy Kotsur/CODA

3) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast

4) Jesse Plemons/The Power of the Dog

5) J.K. Simmons/Being the Ricardos

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Belfast

2) Licorice Pizza

3) Don't Look Up

4) King Richard

5) The Worst Person in the World

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) CODA

3) The Lost Daughter

4) Drive My Car

5) Dune

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) Don't Look Up

4) Encanto

5) Parallel Mothers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) No Time to Die/No Time to Die

2) Dos Oruguitas/Encanto

3) Be Alive/King Richard

4) Down to Joy/Belfast

5) Somehow You Do/Four Good Days

BEST COSTUMES

1) Cruella

2) Dune

3) Nightmare Alley

4) West Side Story

5) Cyrano

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune

2) Spiderman: No Way Home

3) No Time to Die

4) Shang Chi

5) Free Guy

BEST SOUND

1) Dune

2) West Side Story

3) Not Time to Die

4) The Power of the Dog

5) Belfast

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Dune

2) Cruella

3) The Eyes of Tammy Faye

4) The House of Gucci

5) Coming 2 America

SAG AWARDS ANNOUNCED

Last night was a good night for Sundance breakout CODA and not so great a night for TFF #48 films at the SAG Awards.  CODA won Best Cast and Troy Kotsur won Best Supporting Actor for his role as the deaf father of a hearing child.

TFF #48 films only scored one win and that was an expected victory for Will Smith as Best Actor for King Richard.

Other winners were:

Best Actress: Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

The wins for Smith and DeBose solidify their status as Oscar frontrunners.  Kotsur's win certainly improves his chances in a Oscar race that seems, or at least seemed, to be close between him and The Power of the Dog's Kodi Smit-McPhee.  And does Chastain's win mean that she's now the person to beat in a crazy and divided Best Actress Oscar field?

The Dog went 0 for 3 last night with Smit-McPhee, Benedict Cumberbatch and Kirsten Dunst all coming up short. Belfast was 0 for 2 with Caitriona Balfe dropping in Supporting Actress and the film missing for Best Cast.  King Richard also missed for Best Cast as well as for Aujanue Ellis as Supporting Actress.  The final miss for TFF #48 performers was Olivia Colman from The Lost Daughter for Best Actress.

Full coverage is linked here from CNN.

THE LOST DAUGHTER WINS THE USC SCRIPTER

The USC Scripter Award is annually presented to the Best Adapted Screenplay in the eyes of the Scripter's awards voters.  Most thought that Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog was the likely winner here but voters opted for a different TFF #48 film honoring Maggie Gyllenhaal and the script for The Lost Daughter.  The USC Scripter Award also recognizes the writer(s) of the original source material being adapted.  That included author Elena Ferrante who wrote the novel that the film is based on.

Dopesick won the award for adapted television writing.

Other screenplays nominated included Passing, Dune and The Tragedy of Macbeth.

Full details are here from Variety.

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Catching Up / Indiewire's 25 Most Anticipated /PGA Awards 1917 / SAG Award Winners Announced Last Night / ACE Award Surprise-Parasite

CATCHING UP

In the blur that has been the last couple of weeks of Oscar nomination announcement buildup and then the subsequent parsing...some notes and stories that I would have normally included in this space got left behind...so...time to catch up:

Mark Cousins article about the death of the late great Buck Henry is here from Indiewire.

Kris Tapley talks with The Two Popes Oscar nominated scribe Anthony McCarten on The Call Sheet Podcast.

Indiewire reports HBO and Bong Joon-ho are developing Parasite as a project for the premium channel.

The Film Stage on Pedro Almodovar's Pain and Glory.

Damien Chazelle's new Netflix joint will be featured at the Berlin Film Festival.



INDIEWIRE'S 25 MOST ANTICIPATED

Indiewire writers Eric Kohn, David Ehrlich and Kate Erbland published their collective list of 25 films that they have high hopes for on Jan. 11th.  I took a look at their list to continue to try to get an early bead on what might be in the TFF #47 conversation as we move toward spring, Cannes and ultimately the summer season when Telluride Film Fest energy grows and grows.

Consequently, here are the films from their list that seem TFF-y or that are just on my own personal wish list (presented alphabetical as is done in the original post):

Ana de Armas who will star in Blonde (photo via Indiewire)

BLONDE- Andrew Dominik's thinly veiled examination of a Marilyn Monroe-like character played by the currently red hot Ana De Armas (Knives Out).  From Netflix.  Release date: TBD.

DUNE- From director Denis Villenueve.  Villenueve tackles the Frank Herbert sci-fi classic and will certainly have a different approach than we can find in David Lynch's 1984 version.  Villenueve's fairly consistent presence at Telluride makes this a possibility ...or maybe more a wish on my behalf.  From Warner Bros.Release-Dec. 18th.

THE FRENCH DISPATCH- Wes Anderson is back.  A film reportedly about journalism and journalists with Anderson's usual array of regular stars (Willem Dafoe, Bill Murray, Tilda Swinton, Saoirse Ronan) and a batch of new talent (Timothee Chalamet, Elizabeth Moss).  I expect that some version of the film will bow at Cannes, which as TFF followers know, doesn't preclude at Telluride play.  From Searchlight.  Release: TBD.

I'M THINKING OF ENDING THINGS- Directed by Charlie Kaufman.  Could Kaufman return to Telluride after screening Anomalisa there in 2015?  Could be.  Jesse Plemons and Jesse Buckley star.  From Netflix.  Release: TBD.

MANK- Director David Fincher's first feature film gig since 2014's Gone Girl finds him directing a script written by his father about the genesis of the film classic Citizen Kane.  Gary Oldman stars as Herman Mankiewicz, the screen writer of the film many regard still as the greatest film ever made.  At this point, it's the film I most ardently hope makes it to Southwest Colorado over Labor Day weekend.  From Netflix.  Release TBD.

Chloe Zhao (photo via Indiewire)

NOMADLAND- Chloe Zhao's follow up to The Rider.  I had this on my 2019 watch lists and that, obviously didn't happen.  Now I'm expecting a Cannes debut and a possible awards friendly release date.  Frances McDormand stars.  From Searchlight.  Release TBD.

ON THE ROCKS- Sofia Coppola re-teams with her Lost in Translation star Bill Murray.  Rashida Jones is cast as well in this father/daughter film.  Coppola screened Lost in Translation at TFF in 2003.  Could this mark a return for her?  From Apple.  Release TBD.

Check out the rest of the Indiewire 25 here.


PGA AWARDS 1917

The Producers Guild of America announced their winners for films and television for 2019 on Saturday night. 

Sam Mendes 1917 took the film top prize which might mean that the World War I set film that is shot to appear to be essentially one take is your front runner for the Best Picture Oscar.  Indiewire reports that the PGA winner is a 72% successful indicator of the eventual BP Oscar winner.

1917 beat out three TFF films that were also in the running: Parasite, Marriage Story and Ford v Ferrari.

Toy Story 4 was named the PGA winner for Animated Feature while the producers named Apollo 11 the Best Documentary of the year.

The complete PGA story is linked here.


SAG AWARD WINNERS ANNOUNCED LAST NIGHT

Telluride 2019 had a good night at the SAG Awards last night with TFF #46 film actors scooping up two prizes and a TFF film also won Best Ensemble.  Here's the rundown of winners for film:

Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Best ACtress: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix/Joker
Best Ensemble: Parasite

The Parasite win was something of a surprise and positions it along with PGA winner 1917 as the two most likely front runners at this point for the Best Picture Oscar.  Though, I wouldn't rule out Once Upon a Time...just yet.

Now we wait to see what the DGA and WGA do.



ACE AWARD SURPRISE-PARASITE

The American Cinema Editors group surprised the film world on Friday awarding Bong Joon-ho's Parasite as the best edited film drama of the year.  Parasite beat Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood, Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story and Joker.

Jojo Rabbit won the Eddy for Film-Comedy.  Toy Story 4 won for Animated Feature and Apollo 11 won for editing for a Feature Documentary.

The complete list of nominees and winners is linked here from Awards Watch.



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Producers Salute La La Land / Editors Endorse La La Land and Arrival / Hidden Figures Wins SAG Ensemble / Oscar Related

Welcome to Monday as January is on the brink of limping to a conclusion...

Mary Tyler Moore and John Hurt.  Two very different actors and great in different ways but still great nonetheless.  For fun, imagine a two headed coin with MTM's Mary Richards on one side and John Hurt's Winston Smith from 1984 on the other.  Quite a heads and tails, eh?


PRODUCERS SALUTE LA LA LAND

The Producers Guild of America awarded La La Land its top prize for a feature film on Saturday night.  The PGA Award is considered a good barometer of the Best Picture race as it matches up slight better than 2/3 of the time.  The PGA also uses the same preferential balloting process as The Academy which adds another layer of insight.  Other TFF #43 films that were among The PGA nominees: Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight and Arrival.

Here is substantial coverage of the PGA awards presentation including some analysis concerning the Oscar implications of La La Land's win:

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

Dave McNary/Variety

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Gregory Ellwood/The Playlist



EDITORS ENDORSE LA LA LAND AND ARRIVAL

The American Cinema of Editors handed their highest honors for film editing to Damien Chazelle's La La Land as a comedy edited by Tom Cross while Denis Villeneuve's Arrival was named the best edited drama edited by Joe Walker.

OJ: Made in America was named best edited documentary and Zootopia was named the best edited animated feature.

Reportage is here:

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

Bill Desowitz/Indiewire



HIDDEN FIGURES WINS SCREEN ACTORS ENSEMBLE

A couple of late show surprises will serve to keep two Oscar races interesting.  Denzel Washington won the SAG Award for Best Actor last night for his role in Fences and Hidden Figures was the surprise winner in the Best Ensemble category.  

Washington's win upset Casey Affleck who has been considered the favorite through a good deal of this Oscar season for his performance in Manchester by the Sea.

The Hidden Figures win wasn't a total shocker but both Moonlight and Fences had been considered the more likely winner in that category.

The rest of the film acting categories went as expected with TFF #43 attendees winning in two categories-Best Actress and Supporting Actor.  The list:

Supporting Actress: Viola Davis/Fences

Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight

Lead Actress: Emma Stone/La La Land

Lead Actor: Denzel Washington/Fences

Best Ensemble: Hidden Figures

The Best Stunt Ensemble for Film: Hacksaw Ridge

Coverage and analysis of last night's Scree Actors Guild Awards:

from Pete Hammond of Deadline.com

From Anne Thompson at Indiewire



OSCAR RELATED

The trailer for the 89th Academy awards is out and our friend Alex Billington's FirstShowing.net has it.  Check the trailer and Alex's story here.

Meanwhile, Variety-In Contention's Kristopher Tapley analyzes the Oscar race now that we know the nominees and assesses whether Damien Chazelle's La La Land has a shot at the all time record for wins after tying the all time record for nominations.  Take a look at his analysis here.

Entertainment Weekly's Devan Coggan takes a deep dive in the numbers of Oscar #89 here.

Key dates remaining:

Feb. 4th- Directors Guild Award
Feb. 12th- BAFTA Awards
Feb. 13th- Oscar final voting begins
Feb. 21st- Oscar voting concludes
Feb. 26th- Oscars Awards ceremony



That will do it for this Monday.  I'll have another post up on Thursday, so come on back for that.

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Nobody Knows Anything...Still

Good Monday Friends and Neighbors...


NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING...STILL

Nearly two months ago I wrote a post here that recalled screenwriter William Goldman's dictum about Hollywood "Nobody knows anything" and applied it to the absolute uncertainty that existed at that time about the Oscar race.

Seven plus weeks down the road, and that uncertainty has only intensified.  Oh sure, we think we've figured out a lot of categories.  All four acting categories can probably be predicted: DiCaprio, Larson, Stallone, Vikander.  Screenplays likely are going to be rewarded for Spotlight and The Big Short.  Inside Out, Son of Saul and Amy look like near locks in the non-narrative feature categories.

But Best Picture...yeesh...

If you thought the DGA Award announcement on Saturday night was going to give us a definitive guidepost, you were wrong.  Alejandro Inarritu won the DGA for a history making second straight year (for The Revenant).  That win denied the DGA to either Adam McKay/The Big Short or Tom McCarthy/Spotlight which would have likely tipped Oscar pundits in their direction.

The Big Short had taken the catbird seat for a number of people after being named winner of the Producers Guild Award for Outstanding film and then last week's Screen Actors Guild Ensemble Award for Spotlight caused everyone to pause.  Now, with the DGA going to Inarritu, it's even more difficult to parse what the winner is likely to be in three weeks.

Following the DGA announcement on Twitter (late) Saturday night, the Oscarologists I follow most closely (Sasha Stone/Awards Daily, Kris Tapley/Variety-InContention)  seemed to initially feel that The Big Short might still have the inside track and that the DGA win may well translate to a second straight Oscar for Inarritu and another year where the Academy splits the Best Picture/Best Director prizes...which has not been the normal pattern.

The other Oscarologist that I really focus on, The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg, hasn't gone on record yet as to his thoughts about the latest twist in this year's race.

Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood was tweeting last night that she thought the Best Picture race now came down to Spotlight and The Big Short despite the Inarritu win at the DGA.

 

Anne Thompson‏@akstanwyck

@ClumsyHibz It's likely to win actor/cinematography and maybe director. Spotlight or Big Short takes BP. Miller could still win director

Hollywood Elsewhere's Jeff Wells thinks it's down to a Spotlight vs. Revenant race:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2016/02/the-big-short-is-finished-inarritus-dga-win-signifies-revenant-vs-spotlight-showdown/

The bottom line is that we're down to the last three weeks before Oscar and in a normal year we'd have a pretty good idea what Best Picture was going to be.  This year...nobody knows anything.

Personally, I still think Spotlight wins on Oscar night but I wouldn't bet actual money on it.  Full disclosure, though, is that I want it to win so my perception is almost certainly warped by that.


Here's DGA coverage from the weekend:


http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/2016-dga-winners-complete-list-856953/item/feature-film-dga-2016-nominees-856994

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/02/07/the-state-of-the-race-and-then-there-were-three-2/

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/02/06/dga-awards-announcing-tba/

http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/alejandro-g-inarritus-revenant-dga-win-keeps-oscar-guessing-game-going-1201699312/

http://deadline.com/2016/02/dga-award-winners-2016-full-list-directors-guild-1201697771/

http://deadline.com/2016/02/dga-awards-the-revenant-alejandro-inarritu-leonardo-dicaprio-winners-oscars-1201697938/

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2016/02/07/102448/


Come back for more on Thursday!

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The FAC for Eight More Oscar Categories / The SAG and Best Picture / Gold Derby Experts on Oscar and DGA

Good Thursday to All...

We're a little more than three weeks away from Oscar night (Feb. 28th).  Ballots for the final voting go out to the AMPAS membership on Feb. 12 and the voting closes on Feb. 23.

Coming up this weekend is the announcement from The Directors Guild.


THE FAC AND EIGHT MORE OSCAR CATEGORIES

Last week, I posted the first FAC for what are regarded as the eight major Oscar categories (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress and Actor, and Screenplays).  Today I'm posting the numbers that I ran this week on eight more categories.


For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire

Some of these experts have not yet updated their predictions.  That data has been discounted.

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Inside Out
2) Anomalisa
3) Shaun the Sheep
4) When Marnie Was Here
5) Boy and the World

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Amy
2) Cartel Land
3) What Happened Miss Simone
4) The Look of Silence
5) Winter on Fire

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Son of Saul
2) Mustang
3) Theeb
4) Embrace of the Serpent
5) A War

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Revenant
2) Mad Max:Fury Road
3) Carol
4) Sicario
5) The Hateful Eight

FILM EDITING

1) The Big Short

2) Mad Max: Fury Road

3) The Revenant

4) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

5) Spotlight

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Hateful Eight

2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

3) Carol

4) Bridge of Spies

5) Sicario

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Til It Happens To You/The Hunting Ground

2) Writings on the Wall/Spectre

3) Earned It/50 Shades of Gray

4) Simple Song #3/Youth

5) Manta Ray/Racing Extinction

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Mad Max:Fury Road

2) The Revenant

3) The Martian

4) Bridge of Spies

5) The Danish Girl

 Of the 40 nominations in these eight categories, seven are from Telluride.  Only one seems likely to be a winner and that's Son of Saul in Foreign Language.

Other comments: Prohibitive favorites...Inside Out for Animated Feature, Amy for Documentary, Son of Saul for Foreign Language , The Revenant Cinematography, The Hateful Eight for Original Score, Til It Happens To You for Original Song.  The Big Short is a substantial, though not prohibitive favorite, for Film Editing.  

The most seriously contested category of these eight seems to be Production Design.  Mad Max: Fury Road is on top but that lead appears to be vulnerable.

THE SAG AND BEST PICTURE

A lot has been written the last few days as to what conclusions may or may not be drawn by the Spotlight win for The Screen Actors Guild Best Ensemble Award.  Some commenters suggested that it has buoyed Spotlight's Best Picture Oscar prospects after the loss of the PGA honor went to The Big Short.  Other experts have pointed out that The SAG award hasn't been particularly predictive or influential as it has only matched 10 times in the 20 years that SAG has been giving its Best Ensemble prize.

I have been thinking that it might be that the SAG award might be more indicative in years when the BP race was perceived to have been close.  That's mostly because the Actors branch of AMPAS is the largest branch.  Actors, consequently, have the largest influence in Oscar voting.  

Also, it should be noted that, although the SAG has matched only 50% of the time, if we begin counting from the first match of Ensemble and Best Picture, the match has been times in the last 17 years for a bit more respectable rate of 59%.

So, here are the matches:

1998: Shakespeare in Love
1999: American Beauty
2002: Chicago
2003: Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
2005: Crash
2007: No Country for Old Men
2008: Slumdog Millionaire
2010: The King's Speech
2012: Argo
2014: Birdman

So SAG's Ensemble was on top of two big "surprise" years: 1998 (Shakespeare over Saving Private Ryan) and 2005 (Crash over Brokeback Mountain).  It also seemed ahead of the game in what were perceived as close years 2002 (Chicago), 2007 (No Country), 2010 (King's Speech) and 2014 (Birdman).  There are four years of matches that SAG seemed to be going with the overwhelming current: 1999, 2003, 2008 and 2012.

My perception is that this year is close between Spotlight, Big Short, Revenant and Mad Max.  So, maybe SAG tells us that Spotlight, despite the loss at the PGA, is still a serious possibility to win the big prize.

Will the Directors Guild announcement clear things up this weekend?  It might.  Should McKay (Big Short) or McCarthy (Spotlight) win, it would move one film or the other back to front runner status.  

However, I am really expecting the trophy to go to George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road) or Alejandro Inarritu (The Revenant) this weekend and actually muddy up the race even more.

The DGA announces their winners on Saturday.



GOLD DERBY EXPERTS ON OSCAR AND DGA

Pete Hammond of Deadline and Tom O'Neill of Gold Derby went on the record both visually and in podcast form this week to opine about major Oscar races and their thoughts concerning the Directors Guild announcement this week.


Take a look or listen here:

http://www.goldderby.com/news/11631/oscars-predictions-revenant-spotlight-entertainment-91350486-story.html



That's a wrap for Thursday....Come back for more on Monday...



Come back for more on Thursday!

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

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Golden Globes Nominations Announced / SAG Nominations andTelluride /The Pre-Globes and SAG Gurus of Gold

, Good Thursday everyone...


GOLDEN GLOBES NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

Telluride Film Festival Golden Globe nominations:

“Spotlight”: Best Picture (Drama), Best Director/Tom McCarthy, Best Screenplay

“Carol”: Best Picture (Drama), Best Director Todd Haynes, Best Actress (Drama)/Cate Blanchett, Best Actress (Drama) Rooney Mara, Best Score

“Room”: Best Picture (Drama), Best Actress (Drama)/Brie Larson, Best Screenplay

“Steve Jobs”: Best Actor (Drama)/Michael Fassbender, Best Screenplay, Best Supporting Actress/Kate Winslet, Best Score

“Beasts of No Nation”: Best Supporting Actor/Idris Elba,

“99 Homes” (TFF #41): Best Supporting Actor/Michael Shannon

“Anomalisa”: Best Animated Film

"Son of Saul": Best Foreign Film

Complete coverage here:

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/la-et-mn-golden-globes-2016-nominees-winners-list-story

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/arts-and-entertainment/wp/2015/12/10/golden-globes-nominations-2016-complete-coverage/

 Big surprises included no acting nominations for any of the ensemble of "Spotlight" and the placement of Rooney Mara in the lead drama actress category.  Though that category placement is becoming less and less shocking.

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD NOMINATIONS AND TELLURIDE

The Screen Actors Guild announced their nominees for acting excellence yesterday and there were some surprises in the mix.  For Telluride fans it was a good morning as TFF films pulled down 12 of the 25 nominations.  Here's the breakdown from those nominations:

Telluride and The SAG nominations:

Best Actor: Johnny Depp/”Black Mass”, Michael Fassbender/”Steve Jobs”

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett/”Carol”, Brie Larson/”Room”

Best Supporting Actor: Jacob Tremblay/”Room”, Idris Elba/”Beasts of No Nation”, Michael Shannon/”99 Homes” (TFF #41)

Best Supporting Actress: Rooney Mara/”Carol”, Kate Winslet/”Steve Jobs”, Rachel McAdams/”Spotlight”

Best Ensemble: “Beasts of No Nation”, “Spotlight”,

Maybe the biggest surprises as far as Telluride went were the Jacob Tremblay nomination for "Room" and the Best Ensemble nomination for Cary Fukunaga's "Beasts of No Nation".

"Trumbo" lead the field with three nominations (Cranston/Best Actor, Mirren/Supporting Actress and Ensemble).

Complete lists of nominees and analysis is here:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/sag-award-nominations-2016-screen-actors-guild-2-1201657179/

http://www.ew.com/article/2015/12/09/sag-awards-2016-nominees

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/sag-awards-nominations-full-list-20151209

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/12/09/sifting-through-the-wreckage-of-da-fuq-sag-award-nominations/

NEW PRE-SAG/GLOBES GURUS 

Movie City News was up yesterday with the latest Gurus of Gold poll just before the nomination announcements from The Golden Globes and The Screen Actors Guild.  The Gurus updated the six biggest categories.

Here's where Telluride films are in the latest Gurus poll:

Best Picture: "Spotlight" #1, "Carol" #4, "Room" #6, "Steve Jobs" #11.

Best Direction: Tom McCarthy/"Spotlight" #2, Todd Haynes/"Carol" #3, Lenny Abrahamson/"Room" #7.

Best Actress: Brie Larson/"Room" #1, Cate Blanchett/"Carol" #3, Charlotte Rampling/"45 Years"/#4, Carey Mulligan/"Suffragette" #6, Rooney Mara/"Carol" #8.

Best Actor: Michael Fassbender/"Steve Jobs" #3, Johnny Depp/"Black Mass #5.

Best Supporting Actress: Rooney Mara/"Carol" #1, Kate Winslet/"Steve Jobs" #3.

Best Supporting Actor: Michael Keaton/"Spotlight" #1, Mark Ruffalo/"Spotlight" #3, Idris Elba/"Beasts of No Nation" #5, Jacob Tremblay/"Room" #8.

The complete new Gurus of Gold chart is here:

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/12/gurus-o-gold-its-getting-hot-in-here/

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712