Four More Oscar Tech Categories and The FAC / Sasha and Kris are Saying... / "Spotlight" Wins NSFC

Good First Monday of 2016 Everyone...  back to the grind... real and imagined...


FOUR MORE OSCAR TECH CATEGORIES AND THE FAC

As we edge ever closer to Oscar nomination morning, the Film Awards Clearinghouse takes a look at the positioning of the films in the only categories that I haven't enumerated as yet: Makeup/Hair, Visual Effects, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) Black Mass
3) The Revenant

4) Mr. Holmes
5) The 100 Year Old Man...
6) Concussion
7) Legend


Comment:  The only possible Telluride connected nominee from the four categories that the blog examines today as "Black Mass" has a chance to be nominated here.


VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Star Wars; The Force Awakens
2) The Martian
3) Mad Max; Fury Road
4) The Walk
5) Jurassic World

6) Transformers: Age of Ultron
7) Ex Machina
8) The Revenant
9) Ant Man
10) Tomorrowland

Comment;  The top three films look solid for a nomination here.  After them, it's up for grabs for the last two spots.

SOUND MIXING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3) The Martian
4) The Revenant
5) The Hateful Eight

6) Sicario
7) Spectre
8) Jurassic World
9) Straight Outta Compton
10) Creed


SOUND EDITING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) The Martian
3) The Revanant
4) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
5) The Hateful Eight

6) Jurassic World
7) Spectre
8) Inside Out
9) Sicario
10) In the Heart of the Sea

Comment:The top three in Mixing and the top four in Editing seem to be solid.  Oft times a musical film will nose its way into one or both of these categories, especially Mixing.  "Compton" and "Love and Mercy" might sneak in, but even that appears unlikely.


Oscar nomination announcement day is now just 10 days away and as I post the next three MTFB/FACs, I'll update the categories so that we'll have an up to date picture as we arrive at Nomination morning on Jan. 14.


I'll update  these categories on Thursday: Screenplays, Cinematography, Editing, Documentary and Foreign Language Film.



SASHA AND KRIS ARE SAYING...



Last Thursday I looked specifically at the latest Oscar predictions from The Hollywood Reporter's Oscar ace Scott Feinberg to see how Telluride films would pan out if he's 100% correct.  Today I'm posting the same process to Kristopher Tapley of Variety's InContention and Sasha Stone of Awards Daily.  Here are their latest picks for each T-ride film:

From Tapley:

"Spotlight" (7): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Keaton), Supporting Actress (McAdams), Original Screenplay, Editing and Score.

"Carol" (5) Best Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Costumes.

"Steve Jobs" (4) Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Score

"Room" (3) Best Picture, Actress, Adapted Screenplay

"Black Mass" (2) Best Actor, Makeup/Hair

Singles for:

"45 Years" Best Actress
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"Beasts of No Nation" Best Supporting Actor
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film
"The Look of Silence" (TFF #41) Best Documentary

T-ride total = 26 for TFF #42 (27 if you count the TFF #41 "Look of Silence")


From Stone:

"Carol" (8) Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Score.

"Spotlight" (5) Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Editing, Score

"Room" (4) Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay

"Steve Jobs" (3) Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay

Singles for:

"Beasts of No Nation" Supporting Actor
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film
"He Named Me Malala" Best Documentary
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"The Look of Silence" Best Documentary (TFF #41)

T-ride total from Stone: 25 (with a 26th if you count TFF #41's "Look of Silence")

Here's the material I blogged about from Feinberg last Thursday:

 If Feinberg is right, T-ride films are nominated as follows:

"Carol" (7): Best Film, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Costume, Cinematography and Score.
"Spotlight" (6):  Best Film, Direction, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score and Film Editing.
"Room" (4): Best Film, Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Production Design
"Steve Jobs" (3): Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay.

All other films from Telluride would be single nominated films:

"45 Years" Best Actress
"Beasts of No Nation" Best Supporting Actor
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film

And from TFF #41:

"The Look of Silence" Best Documentary
"99 Homes" Best Supporting Actor.


Telluride totals would be 27 nominations (with two of those from TFF 2014).


If you combine all three of these Oscar pundits to look for the maximum Telluride bang for the buck you could see "Carol" with 10 nominations, "Spotlight" with seven (eight, if it gets three acting nominations), "Room" with five, "Steve Jobs" with four, "Black Mass" with two and TFF #41 with an additional six nominations for one offs for "Beasts", "Saul", "Viva", "45 Years", Anomalisa and "Malala" and an additional two nominations dating back to TFF #41 films.



"SPOTLIGHT" WINS NSFC

Tom McCarthy's "Spotlight" was named Best Picture of the year by the National Society of Film Critics yesterday.  Other Telluride-centric films that were winners or runners-up yesterday in the NSFC voting were:

Best Picture 1st RU: "Carol"
Best Director: Todd Haynes/ "Carol", 1st RU: Tom McCarthy/"Spotlight"
Best Actor 1st RU: Geza Rorhig/"Son of Saul", 2nd RU: Tom Courtenay/"45 Years"
Best Actress: Charlotte Rampling/"45 Years"
Best Supporting Actor: Michael Shannon/"99 Homes" (TFF #41)
Best Supporting Actress; 2nd RU Kate Winslet/"Steve Jobs"
Best Screenplay: "Spotlight", 1st RU: "Anomalisa"
Best Cinematography: "Carol"
Best Non-Fiction Film: 2nd RU "Seymour: An Introduction" (TFF #41)

Full coverage f the NSFC results are here:

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/national-society-of-film-critics-awards-2016-full-list-1201670781/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/criticwire/national-society-of-film-critics-awards-2015-20160103

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/national-society-of-film-critics-gives-best-picture-to-oscar-frontrunner-spotlight-20160103

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/national-society-film-critics-2016-851756


That's all for Monday.  More updated Oscar categories will be here on Thursday...


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michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to


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Gurus of Gold and Others Updated Oscar Forecasts / Critical Take on 2015 Gets Deeper / Lots About "Spotlight"

Good Christmas Eve and Thursday morning...


GURUS OF GOLD AND OTHERS UPDATED OSCAR FORECASTS

Move City News has an updated chart this morning for six major categories.  TFF films lay out like this in their latest tally of Oscar experts:

Best Picture:

#1 "Spotlight"
#3 "Carol"
#8 "Room"
#12 "Steve Jobs"

Best Director

#2 Tom McCarthy/"Spotlight"
#4 Todd Haynes/"Carol"
#7 Lenny Abrahamson/"Room"


Best Actress:

#1 Brie Larson/"Room"
#3 Cate Blanchett/"Carol"
#5 Charlotte Rampling/"45 Years"
#6 Carey Mulligan/"Suffragette"

Best Actor:

#3 Michael Fassbender/"Steve Jobs"
#6 Johnny Depp/"Black Mass"


Best Supporting Actress:

#1 Rooney Mara/"Carol"
#3 Kate Winslet/"Steve Jobs"
#6 Rachel McAdams/"Spotlight"

Best Supporting Actor:

#3 Idris Elba/"Beasts of No Nation"
#4 Michael Keaton/"Spotlight"
#5 Mark Ruffalo/"Spotlight"
#7 Michael Shannon/"99 Homes" (TFF #41)
#8 Jacob Tremblay/"Room"


The Gurus indicate 14 Oscar nominations for Telluride films on these six categories with another seven possibles/trade-offs.

The complete Gurus can be found here:

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/12/gurus-o-gold-you-better-vote-good-for-goodness-sake/

Meanwhile, The Five Star Flicks Blog has continued its project of gathering data from many Oscar prognostication sources and crunching those numbers for the Best Picture race in a different manner. Their cumulative chart has the following for BP:

#1 "Spotlight"
#4 "Room"
#6 "Carol"
#12 "Steve Jobs"
#16 "Beasts of No Nation"


That complete chart is here:

http://fivestarflicks.blogspot.com/2015/12/state-of-race-best-picture-as-of-122315.html


CRITICAL TAKE ON 2015

Metacritic continues to gather data from Critics' year end top ten lists (they're up over 160 lists so far) and here's where Telluride films rank (within their top twenty):

#2 "Carol"
#3 "Spotlight"
#8 "Son of Saul" (tie)
#8 "Anomalisa" (tie)
#10 "45 Years"
#14 "Room"
#16 "The Look of Silence" (TFF #41)


That's an incredibly impressive seven films on the cumulative top twenty from TFF.

The complete Metacritic list is here:

http://www.metacritic.com/feature/film-critics-list-the-top-10-movies-of-2015


LOTS ON "SPOTLIGHT"

Somewhat tenaciously and against the odds, "Spotlight" has continued to seem like a quiet Oscar front runner for many weeks now.  As such, it continues to be spotlighted, if you'll pardon the expression, in a number of outlets in a number of ways.  Here is a sampling of some of then latest including discussions from its producer, director, actors and musical director:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/how-open-road-ceo-tom-ortenberg-shepherded-spotlight-to-oscar-frontrunner-20151223

http://thefilmstage.com/news/morricone-talks-the-hateful-eight-thomas-mccarthy-analyzes-spotlight-45-years-tangerine-talks-and-more/

http://www.thewrap.com/spotlight-director-tom-mccarthy-talks-researching-disturbing-church-scandal-video/

http://www.thewrap.com/spotlight-star-michael-keaton-talks-actors-journalists-and-their-egos/

http://www.thewrap.com/how-mark-ruffalo-learned-to-play-an-excitable-journalist-in-spotlight-video/

http://www.thewrap.com/spotlight-star-rachel-mcadams-talks-learning-to-listen-like-a-journalist-exclusive-video/

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/12/23/interview-howard-shore-talks-composing-spotlight/


That's it for Thursday.  For all those that celebrate Christmas...I hope your tomorrow is fantastic. MTFB will return Monday with more...

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to


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Updated FAC for Oscars Four Major Categories / American Film Institute's Top Ten Films for 2015 / The Latest Gurus of Gold

Welcome to Thursday...

As promised, here is your update of four major Oscar categories:

THE UPDATED FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE/MAJOR FOUR CATEGORIES

Many of the professionals listed below will often write that precursors like the Golden Globes and SAG nominations as well as critical top tens don't really move the needle as far as Oscar voters go. And yet...as you look at these categories that are updated from their last post from about three weeks ago...the number crunching of their thinking tells a different story.

"Mad Max: Fury Road" and "Trumbo's" Bryan Cranston have jumped into serious contention precisely because of the announcement of year end accolades from the various precursors.  "Joy" has dropped like a stone after spending the past several months comfortably regarded as a serious contender in a number of categories.

"The Martian" continues to be regarded well but I have serious concerns that the main categories will accommodate it and "Mad Max".

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.



BEST PICTURE

1) Spotlight (1)
2) The Martian (3)
3) The Revenant (2)
4) Room (4)
5) Brooklyn (6)
6) Carol (10)
7) Mad Max: Fury Road (NR)
8) The Big Short (12)


9) Bridge of Spies (5)
10) Inside Out (9)
11) Steve Jobs (8)
12) The Hateful Eight (11)

Hot: Carol, Mad Max:Fury Road, The Big Short
Not: Bridge of Spies, Steve Jobs, Joy

Comment:  "Fury Road" is red hot and "Joy" is dead as can be as it dropped completely off the chart.  Not one of these experts thinks it will get a Best Picture nomination.  It's fall from grace makes me a little dizzy.  "Spotlight" nailed a perfect score from these Oscarologists.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (1)
2) Ridley Scott/The Martian (3)
3) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (2)
4) George Miller/Mad Max:Fury Road (7)
5) Todd Haynes/Carol (8)

6) Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies (4)
7) Lenny Abrahamson/Room (5)
8) Quentin Tarantino/The Hateful Eight (10)
9) John Crowley/Brooklyn (NR)
10) Adam McKay/The Big Short (NR)

Hot: Miller, Haynes, Tarantino, Crowley, McKay
Not: Spielberg, Abrahamson, Boyle, Russell

Comment: The upward trajectory for Haynes and Miller reveal that they are thought to be serious Best Picture contenders as well.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Brie Larson/Room (1)
2) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (3)
3) Cate Blanchett/Carol (4)
4) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (5)
5) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy (2)

6) Rooney Mara/Carol (NR)
7) Carey Mulligan/Suffragette (6)
8) Lily Tomlin/Grandma (8)
9) Helen Mirren/Woman in Gold (NR)
10) Sarah Silverman/I Smile Back (NR)

Hot: Mara, Mirren, Silverman
Not: Lawrence, Danner, Smith, Blanchett (Truth)

Comment:  Nothing better illustrates the fall of "Joy" than Jennifer Lawrence's drop to the #5 spot and fighting to stay on as a likely nominee.  She's still way out front of Rooney Mara (whose presence here indicates a potential rejection of the decision to campaign her in the Supporting category) but the drop over the last three weeks has been precipitous.

BEST ACTOR

1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (1)
2) Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs (2)
3) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (3)
4) Matt Damon/The Martian (5)
5) Bryan Cranston/Trumbo (NR)

6) Johnny Depp/Black Mass (4)
7) Will Smith/Concussion (7)
8) Ian McKellen/Mr. Holmes (9)
9) Michael Caine/Youth (6)
10) Steve Carell/The Big Short (10)

Hot: Cranston
Not: Depp, Caine, Hanks

Comment: Bryan Cranston's jump into contention has been stratospheric.  I still have serious reservations about Damon making the top five.

If these predictions are 100% accurate, then films/performers from Telluride will earn nine nominations in these four categories with an additional five possibilities.


I'll update the Supporting Acting and Screenplay Oscar predictions in Monday's edition of MTFB/FAC.


AMERICAN FILM INSTITUTES'S TOP TEN FILMS

The AFI announced their list of the Ten Best films of 2015 yesterday and three Telluride Film Fest films made the grade: "Carol", "Room" and "Spotlight".  Other films making the AFI Top Ten included:

"The Big Short"
"Bridge of Spies"
"Inside Out"
"Mad Max:Fury Road"
"The Martian"
"Star Wars: The Force Awakens"
"Straight Outta Compton"

Left out: "The Revenant", "Joy", "Creed", "Steve Jobs", "Black Mass" and "The Hateful Eight".

Last year the AFI list included 11 films:

"American Sniper"
"Birdman"
"Boyhood"
"Foxcatcher"
"The Imitation Game"
"Interstellar"
"Into the Woods"
"Nightcrawler"
"Selma"
"Unbroken"
"Whiplash"


I've included links to this coverage of the AFI announcement:

https://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/afi-awards-honorees-star-wars-mr-robot-1201662848/

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/12/16/avi-top-ten-2015/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/star-wars-force-awakens-lands-849517



THE LATEST GURUS OF GOLD

Movie City News was up yesterday with an updated posting for the Gurus of Gold.  Their list of Best Picture cumulative predictions has TFF films as follows:

"Spotlight" #1
"Carol" #3
"Room" #8
"Steve Jobs" #11
"Beasts of No Nation" #17

The complete Gurus update is here:

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/12/gurus-o-gold-what-underdogs-are-still-barking/

Additionally, Sasha Stone at Awards Daily broke down the implications of the latest from the Gurus in this post yesterday:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/12/16/at-last-a-consensus-emerges-in-the-best-picture-race/#


That'll do for now.  I'll post anew on Monday...

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Thoughts on the Season...Oscar not Holiday / Late Breaking: Critics Choice Award Nominations and Online Film Critics / Feinberg's Latest Forecast / Interviews and Profiles / Reminders

If you didn't know...It's Monday...

THOUGHTS ON THE SEASON...OSCAR NOT HOLIDAY

My friend Sasha Stone of Awards Daily is fond of screen writer William Goldman's sage description of Hollywood: "Nobody knows anything".  It seems like that's an apt description of where we are as we come to the last few pages of the book that has been 2015 in terms of the awards season landscape.

I have been following Oscar with some seriousness since I started this blog seven years ago because I was interested to see how the films that played the Telluride Film Festival fared at Oscar time.  It's engaging and allows me to continue to have something to write about beyond the normal schtick that this space focuses on...namely "What's going to play at Telluride?"

So, as I look back at these last seven years and the way the Oscar seasons have played out, it seems to me that we have a truly anomalous year.  It seems like we should be a whole lot surer about a whole lot more about what's going on as we march toward Oscar and we just aren't.

"Nobody knows anything".  The Oscarologists are all over the place with the perceived rise and fall of a film's or an actor's awards prospects.  As an example, look at George Miller's "Mad Max: Fury Road", which hasn't been thought of as a serious Oscar Best Director/Best Picture contender has suddenly gathered a lot of momentum from its Golden Globes and critic's groups notices apparently at the expense of Ridley Scott's "The Martian".

Another factor...is category placement.  It seems to be a very obvious consideration in the campaigns for Rooney Mara for "Carol" and Alicia Vikander for both "The Danish Girl" and"Ex Machina".  It also seems to be potentially harming the cast members of Tom McCarthy's "Spotlight".  Keaton and Ruffalo seemed like that might be able to pull off the feat of both being nominated for Supporting Actor from the same film but the precursors up to this point are pointing to the greater likelihood that neither guy gets in.

So, as we move through this next week (with notable news from the Online Film Critics Society, the Broadcast Film Critics Association and The American Film Institute) maybe what we DO know IS that "Nobody knows anything" which is making for what is an unusual, dynamic and surprising 2015 Oscar season.

So, despite nobody knowing anything...here's a reminder of some awards season thoughts, many of which I have included in this space before.

1) I still think that "Spotlight" is your best chance to continue Telluride's streak of hosting the year's Best Picture Oscar winner.  That streak has held each year since 2010...and save for 2009's win for "The Hurt Locker", would actually date back to 2008.  I was beginning to think that "Room" was looking like a real possibility to replace "Spotlight" as the film with the best chance to continue the string but that possibility seemed to recede this past week.  The "Streak"...

2008-"Slumdog Millionaire"
2009: The Hurt Locker" (not at TFF)
2010: "The King's Speech"
2011: "The Artist"
2012: "Argo"
2013: "12 Years a Slave"
2014: "Birdman"

2) Up until this week, I was saying that the Best Picture winner was likely to be one of four films: "Spotlight", "Room", "The Martian" and "The Revenant".  Last week's precursor news seemed to take some wind out of the sails of everything but "Spotlight" and the beneficiaries seemed to be the aforementioned "Mad Max: Fury Road" and Todd Haynes' "Carol".

3) Don't count out "Steve Jobs" as a Best Picture nomination contender.  The film has all but disappeared on the charts of the professional Oscar pundits but I feel like the four Globe nominations may suggest that, despite its box office results, there could be more strength there than a lot of people think.

4) I've said it already, but I'll say it again..."Carol" will have more nominations on Oscar morning than any other film.  Conceivably: Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, two Acting nominations-maybe one lead and one supporting or two leads-, Costumes, Production Design, Score, Hair/Makeup, Cinematography.  That's 10.  It could happen.

5) I'm still stumping for: "Son of Saul" to be nominated for Best Picture.  It's status as the front runner for Best Foreign Film feels like the only sure thing about Oscar here in the middle of December.

Also the MTFB/FAC campaigns of futility continue for Supporting Actor nominations for Jeff Daniels from "Steve Jobs" and Peter Sarsgaard from "Black Mass".

6) Since I started covering Telluride and its relation to Oscar season, the average TFF film cumulative Oscar nomination total is 27.  This year has felt like that average seemed to be good bet for this year's total.  I'm thinking the last week or so that the total might inch a little bit past the 27 but even then, we're talking 28-29 nominations all told.  I'm not feeling that this will be a 30+ nomination year...but, keep in mind...nobody knows anything.

LATE BREAKING: CRITICS' CHOICE AWARD NOMINATIONS AND ONLINE FILM CRITICS AWARDS

The Broadcast Film Critics Association has announced their nominees for Film and television achievement.  Telluride films are well represented with TFF #42 films nominated for 31 BFCA awards plus two additional nominations for TFF #41 films.

Here's the breakdown:

"Carol" (9): Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Director, Production Design, Hair/Makeup, Cinematography, Costumes, Score.

"Spotlight" (8): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Ruffalo), Supporting Actress, Ensemble, Director, Original Screenplay, Film Editing and Score.

"Room" (4): Best Picture, Actress, Young Actor, Adapted Screenplay

"Steve Jobs"(3): Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay

Black Mass (2): Best Actor, Hair/Makeup

Single nominations for:

"45 Years": Best Actress
"Beasts of No Nation: Best Young Actor
"Anomalisa": Best Animated Film
"Son of Saul": Best Foreign Film
"He Named Me Malala": Best Documentary

Additionally, from TFF #41, Michael Shannon was nominated for Best Supporting Actor for "99 Homes" and "The Look of Silence" was nominated for Best Documentary.

The complete list of all nominees is here:

http://deadline.com/2015/12/critics-choice-awards-nominations-2016-full-list-1201666326/

Meanwhile, the Online Film Critics Association  named Telluride films winners of six of their 13 awards.  “Mad Max: Fury Road” was named Best Picture.  They liked “Carol” a lot too.  See below:

The Online Film Critic’s awards for Telluride Film Festival films for 2015:

Best Actor: Michael Fassbender/”Steve Jobs”

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett/”Carol”

Best Supporting Actress: Rooney Mara/”Carol”

Best Documentary: “The Look of Silence” (TFF #41)

Best Original Screenplay: “Spotlight”

Best Adapted Screenplay: “Carol”

Top Ten Foreign Films includes “Rams”

 Analysis is here:

http://www.thewrap.com/online-film-critics-say-mad-max-fury-road-is-best/

http://variety.com/2015/film/awards/online-film-critics-society-winners-mad-max-1201660197/

FEINBERG'S LATEST FORECAST

The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg has updated his latest view of the Oscar race in light of last week's SAG and Golden Globes news.

Take a look at those here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/academy-awards-121115/

LISTEN TO ANNE, ERIC AND SASHA

Check out the latest edition of ScreenTalk with Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood, Eric Kohn/Indiewire and their special guest Sasha Stone/Awards Daily as they talk about the latest developments in the Oscar race here:

https://soundcloud.com/eric-kohn

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES:

"STEVE JOBS" AND DANNY BOYLE:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/what-danny-boyle-learned-michael-847049


"BLACK MASS" AND SCOTT COOPER

http://maltinonmovies.wolfpop.com/audio/40162/special-guest-scott-cooper-black-mass


 "BEASTS OF NO NATION" AND CARY FUKUNAGA

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/exclusive-featurette-explores-the-uncompromising-vision-of-cary-fukunagas-beasts-of-no-nation-20151209


"ANOMALISA" AND CHARLIE KAUFMAN AND DUKE JOHNSON

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-34-minute-anomalisa-interview-with-charlie-kaufman-duke-johnson-plus-new-featurettes-20151211


"CAROL" AND CATE BLANCHETT AND ROONEY MARA

http://www.thewrap.com/cate-blanchett-rooney-mara-talk-challenges-of-depicting-closeted-lesbians-in-carol/



REMINDERS:

Check back later today as I'll do some coverage on the news from the Broadcast Film Critics.

And also look for a Film Awards Clearinghouse update for the four major categories (Picture, Director, Actress and Actor) on Thursday.

Also, take a look at the 2015 addition to the second page of this blog "Selected Telluride History".  I added an attenuated version of this year's tributes, guests and films over the weekend.


Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

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Golden Globes Nominations Announced / SAG Nominations andTelluride /The Pre-Globes and SAG Gurus of Gold

, Good Thursday everyone...


GOLDEN GLOBES NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

Telluride Film Festival Golden Globe nominations:

“Spotlight”: Best Picture (Drama), Best Director/Tom McCarthy, Best Screenplay

“Carol”: Best Picture (Drama), Best Director Todd Haynes, Best Actress (Drama)/Cate Blanchett, Best Actress (Drama) Rooney Mara, Best Score

“Room”: Best Picture (Drama), Best Actress (Drama)/Brie Larson, Best Screenplay

“Steve Jobs”: Best Actor (Drama)/Michael Fassbender, Best Screenplay, Best Supporting Actress/Kate Winslet, Best Score

“Beasts of No Nation”: Best Supporting Actor/Idris Elba,

“99 Homes” (TFF #41): Best Supporting Actor/Michael Shannon

“Anomalisa”: Best Animated Film

"Son of Saul": Best Foreign Film

Complete coverage here:

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/la-et-mn-golden-globes-2016-nominees-winners-list-story

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/arts-and-entertainment/wp/2015/12/10/golden-globes-nominations-2016-complete-coverage/

 Big surprises included no acting nominations for any of the ensemble of "Spotlight" and the placement of Rooney Mara in the lead drama actress category.  Though that category placement is becoming less and less shocking.

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD NOMINATIONS AND TELLURIDE

The Screen Actors Guild announced their nominees for acting excellence yesterday and there were some surprises in the mix.  For Telluride fans it was a good morning as TFF films pulled down 12 of the 25 nominations.  Here's the breakdown from those nominations:

Telluride and The SAG nominations:

Best Actor: Johnny Depp/”Black Mass”, Michael Fassbender/”Steve Jobs”

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett/”Carol”, Brie Larson/”Room”

Best Supporting Actor: Jacob Tremblay/”Room”, Idris Elba/”Beasts of No Nation”, Michael Shannon/”99 Homes” (TFF #41)

Best Supporting Actress: Rooney Mara/”Carol”, Kate Winslet/”Steve Jobs”, Rachel McAdams/”Spotlight”

Best Ensemble: “Beasts of No Nation”, “Spotlight”,

Maybe the biggest surprises as far as Telluride went were the Jacob Tremblay nomination for "Room" and the Best Ensemble nomination for Cary Fukunaga's "Beasts of No Nation".

"Trumbo" lead the field with three nominations (Cranston/Best Actor, Mirren/Supporting Actress and Ensemble).

Complete lists of nominees and analysis is here:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/sag-award-nominations-2016-screen-actors-guild-2-1201657179/

http://www.ew.com/article/2015/12/09/sag-awards-2016-nominees

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/sag-awards-nominations-full-list-20151209

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/12/09/sifting-through-the-wreckage-of-da-fuq-sag-award-nominations/

NEW PRE-SAG/GLOBES GURUS 

Movie City News was up yesterday with the latest Gurus of Gold poll just before the nomination announcements from The Golden Globes and The Screen Actors Guild.  The Gurus updated the six biggest categories.

Here's where Telluride films are in the latest Gurus poll:

Best Picture: "Spotlight" #1, "Carol" #4, "Room" #6, "Steve Jobs" #11.

Best Direction: Tom McCarthy/"Spotlight" #2, Todd Haynes/"Carol" #3, Lenny Abrahamson/"Room" #7.

Best Actress: Brie Larson/"Room" #1, Cate Blanchett/"Carol" #3, Charlotte Rampling/"45 Years"/#4, Carey Mulligan/"Suffragette" #6, Rooney Mara/"Carol" #8.

Best Actor: Michael Fassbender/"Steve Jobs" #3, Johnny Depp/"Black Mass #5.

Best Supporting Actress: Rooney Mara/"Carol" #1, Kate Winslet/"Steve Jobs" #3.

Best Supporting Actor: Michael Keaton/"Spotlight" #1, Mark Ruffalo/"Spotlight" #3, Idris Elba/"Beasts of No Nation" #5, Jacob Tremblay/"Room" #8.

The complete new Gurus of Gold chart is here:

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/12/gurus-o-gold-its-getting-hot-in-here/

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

The Cumulative FAC Recap (at This Point) / Oscar Matters: Podcasting Oscar / Interviews and Profiles: "Carol", "Suffragette", "Son of Saul", "Room", "Steve Jobs" and "Spotlight"

Welcome to Monday and here's hoping that everyone had a safe and joyful Thanksgiving holiday...

THE CUMULATIVE FAC RECAP (AT THIS POINT)

Over the past two weeks or so, I have posted the third update for the "Big Eight" Oscar categories (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress and Actor and Adapted and Original Screenplays) as well as four additional categories (Film Editing, Cinematography, Documentary Feature and Foreign Language Film).  I haven't yet tackled the other dozen categories that Oscar will reward in February (Animated Feature, Original Song and Score, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing and Editing, and the Shorts: Live Action, Animation and Documentary).  Those will come later as we get closer to nomination time (Jan. 14).

As we find ourselves on the cusp of end-of-the-year lists of the best in film making (The National Board of Review announces their top films tomorrow while the New York Film Critics Circle announces on Wednesday, The Los Angeles critics announce this coming weekend), I thought it'd be useful to collect all twelve of the categories that have been posted here in the last two weeks in one post.  So here they are:

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.


BEST PICTURE

"Spotlight" trailer via YouTube

1) Spotlight (1)
2) The Revenant (3)
3) The Martian (12)
4) Room (5)
5) Bridge of Spies (6)
6) Brooklyn (4)
7) Joy (7)
8) Steve Jobs (2)

9) Inside Out (11)
10) Carol (10)
11) The Hateful Eight (9)
12) The Big Short (NR)

Hot: "The Martian", "Inside Out", "The Big Short"
Cold: "Brooklyn", Steve Jobs", "The Hateful Eight" and "The Danish Girl" which dropped off the list entirely.
Comment:  "The Martian" change and the "Steve Jobs" box office debacle have really shaken this race up.  I'm not so sure that "Jobs" is completely out of this as Fassbender still has a lot of Best Actor support (see below).  At this point, I could see any of the top four films taking the big prize...and yes, I'm including "Room" in that assessment.  People really love the film and its strength is reflected in Lenny Abrahamson's climb in the director's race and Brie Larson's support in the Best Actress race.  Remember too, that it won the Toronto audience award and finished in the top spot in my collection of viewers' ratings for The People's Telluride.


BEST DIRECTION

"Room" trailer via YouTube

1) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (1)
2) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (3)
3) Ridley Scott/The Martian (7)
4) Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies (5)
5) Lenny Abrahamson/Room (NR)

6) David O. Russell/Joy (4)
7) George Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road (10)
8) Todd Haynes/Carol (8)
9) Danny Boyle/Steve Jobs (2)
10) Quentin Tarantino/The Hateful Eight (6)

Hot: Scott, Abrahamson and Miller.
Cold: Russell, Boyle and Tom Hooper (Danish Girl)
Comment:Danny Boyle's fall also underscores the drop in prospects for "Steve Jobs" as Abrahamson's ascendance emphasizes the popularity of "Room".  Also, "The Danish Girl" is taking a hit in both Picture and Directing categories.  Eddie Redmayne still seems to be competitive in the Best Actor category (see below).


BEST ACTRESS

"Carol" trailer via YouTube

1) Brie Larson/Room (1)
2) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy (2)
3) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (3)
4) Cate Blanchett/Carol (4)
5) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (6)

6) Carey Mulligan/Suffragette (5)
7) Blythe Danner/I'll See You in My Dreams (10)
8) Lily Tomlin/Grandma (7)
9) Maggie Smith/The Lady in the Van (9)
10) Cate Blanchett/Truth (8)

Hot: Danner
Cold: Blanchett in "Truth"
Comment: A remarkably steady category.  Larson is the closest thing to a lock in any of the four major categories in a year where "locks" have been few and far between.


BEST ACTOR

"Steve Jobs" trailer via YouTube

1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (3)
2) Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs (1)
3) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (2)
4) Johnny Depp/Black Mass (4)
5) Matt Damon/The Martian (6)

6) Michael Caine/Youth (5)
7) Will Smith/Concussion (8)
8) Tom Hanks/Bridge of Spies (7)
9) Ian McKellen/Mr. Holmes (9)
10) Steve Carell/The Big Short (10)


Hot: DiCaprio
Cold:  No one really.
Comment:  Both Fassbender and Redmayne stay in the thick of the race despite their films having suffered some serious doubts in the Picture and Directing categories.  The same could be said for Johnny Depp.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)
2) Rooney Mara/Carol (2)
3) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)
4) Jane Fonda/Youth (5)
5) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (4)

6) Elizabeth Banks/Love and Mercy (7)
7) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (6)
8) Joan Allen/Room (8)
9) Julie Walters/Brooklyn (9)
10) Jessica Chastain/The Martian (NR)

Hot: Chastain
Not: Kristen Stewart/Clouds of Sils Maria
Comment: Chastain's jump onto the list might signal the strength of "The Martian" while the resilience of Vikander suggests that my theory that "Danish Girl" is weak may be completely off. Additionally, Winslet stays steady, so "Steve Jobs" may not be as weak as a lot of people have been thinking.  Finally, Rooney Mara's Indie Spirit nomination in the lead category might signal that she could move out of this category come Oscar nomination morning.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (3)
2) Michael Keaton/Spotlight (1)
3) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (4)
4) Tom Hardy/The Revenant (2)
5) Jacob Tremblay/Room (6)

6) Paul Dano/Love and Mercy
7) Bencio Del Toro/Sicario (8)
8) Sylvester Stallone/Creed (NR)
9) Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation (5)
10) Harvey Keitel/Youth (10)

Hot: Ruffalo and Stallone
Not: Hardy, Elba and Joel Edgerton/Black Mass-who dropped off the top ten.
Comment:  The big story here is there serious emergence of Stallone as a player in the category.  As I write this on Thanksgiving morning, "Creed" is reportedly opened to banging box office and the reviews have been good.  Lookout for Stallone!

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Steve Jobs (1)
2) Room (3)
3) Brooklyn (2)
4) The Martian (7)
5) The Revenant (4)

6) Anomalisa (6)
7) Carol (5)
8) The Big Short (9)
9) The Danish Girl (8)
10) 45 Years (NR)

Hot: "The Martian" and "45 Years"
Not: "Carol" and "Beats of No Nation"
Comment: "Beasts falls out of the top ten.  It'll be interesting to see if it gets a boost from its Indy Spirit nominations (see below)


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) The Hateful Eight (4)
4) Bridge of Spies (5)
5) Joy (3)

6) Youth (6)
7) Sicario (7)
8) Love and Mercy (9)
9) Son of Saul (8)
10) Trainwreck (NR)

Hot: "Trainwreck"
Not: "Joy" and "Suffragette" which drops way off the top ten list.
Comment:"Spotlight" in this category is the only leader in any of the dozen categories that The FAC has looked at over these past three months since Telluride concluded to hit a perfect score.


BEST FILM EDITING

1) The Revenant
2) Spotlight
3) Mad Max: Fury Road
4) Bridge of Spies
5) Steve Jobs

6) The Martian
7) Joy
8) Sicario
9) The Hateful Eight
10) Jurassic Park

Comment: The category that has become semi-mythical in terms of its pairing with the eventual Best Picture winner seems to be among the top six films here.  Though, any of these ten could get in.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Revenant
2) Sicario
3) Mad Max; Fury Road
4) Carol
5) Bridge of Spies

6) The Hateful Eight
7) The Martian
8) In the Heart of the Sea
9) The Danish Girl
10) Son of Saul

Comment:  The five nominees probably come from the top seven listed here.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Son of Saul
2) Labyrinth of Lies
3) Mustang
4) Second Mother
5) The Assassin

6) Rams
7) Viva
8) Goodnight Mommy
9) The Club
10) A Pigeon Sat on a Branch...

Comment:  This category is largely believed to be about narrowing the field down to the four films that eventually lose to "Son of Saul".  In a year where most categories are still fairly unpredictable, "Saul" might be the surest bet for Oscar of any film in any category.


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Amy
2) The Look of Silence (TFF #41)
3) Going Clear
4) Best of Enemies
5) The Hunting Ground

6) Where Do We Invade Next?
7) He Named Me Malala
8) Listen to Me Marlon
9) Miss Simone
10) Cartel Land


Comment: Reflecting the sense that I got at Telluride this year, there's only one TFF #42 documentary that seems to have a shot this year and "Malala" is playing from behind.  TFF #41's "Look of Silence" looks solid.

If The FAC is 100% on the money, TFF #42 films would earn 22 nominations from these 12 categories with another 15 possibilities.

Since I started doing The FAC, Telluride films average 27 nominations each year.  This year looks like it should end up with about that number of nominations.


OSCAR MATTERS: PODCASTING OSCARS

Here are links to the most popular and influential podcasts that focus on the Oscar Race including Oscar Poker with Sasha Stone ans Jeffrey Wells (Awards Daily and Hollywood Elsewhere), Screen Talk with Anne Thompson and Eric Kohn (Thompson on Hollywood and Indiewire), Awards Chatter with Scott Feinberg (The Hollywood Reporter), Erik Anderson (Awards Watch) and Oscar Predictions Smackdown with Tom O'Neill (Gold Derby) and Sasha Stone as his guest:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2015/11/begins-with-anger-ends-with-acceptance/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/screen-talk-spirit-awards-surprises-whither-inarritus-the-revenant-20151125

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/awards-chatter-podcast-benicio-del-844097

http://awardswatch.com/podcasts/oscar-podcast-31-nbr-and-nyfcc-predix-plus-the-revenant-and-joy-finally-screen/

http://www.goldderby.com/news/10968/oscar-prediction-revenant-leonardo-dicaprio-leo-danish-girl-618372594.html


OSCAR MATTERS: THE PUNDITS' LATEST

Here's the latest in Oscar prognostications for the best in the business both individually and collectively:

Individuals: Sasha Stone/Awards Daily, Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter, Kristopher Tapley/Variety's InContention:


http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/11/27/predictions-friday-creed-lands/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/academy-awards-112515/

http://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/oscar-predictions-oscars-academy-awards-1201600870/

And collectively from The Gurus of Gold and Gold Derby:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/11/27/gurus-goldderby-check-in-thanksgiving-edition/

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/11/gurus-o-gold-14-weeks-to-oscar/

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/11/gurus-o-gold-the-picture-the-men-the-turkey-day-reccomendation/

http://www.goldderby.com/odds/experts/300/



INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES: "CAROL", "SUFFRAGETTE", "SON OF SAUL", "ROOM", "STEVE JOBS" AND "SPOTLIGHT"


"CAROL"

http://www.rollingstone.com/movies/news/cate-blanchett-on-why-carol-is-not-your-average-love-story-20151119

http://www.indiewire.com/article/todd-haynes-explains-the-cinematic-influences-that-impacted-his-carol-20151123

http://www.fandango.com/carol_184244/movieoverview

http://www.indiewire.com/article/watch-rooney-mara-and-cate-blanchett-forbidden-romance-blossoms-in-these-carol-clips-20151123

https://amp.twimg.com/v/c4bb3e9d-0133-4b7f-8c84-0994f96d33a6


'SUFFRAGETTE"

http://www.hitfix.com/the-dartboard/check-out-an-exclusive-featurette-featuring-carey-mulligan-in-suffragette

http://variety.com/video/suffragette-carey-mulligan-watch/

http://www.wearemoviegeeks.com/2015/11/suffragette-star-carey-mulligan-talks-about-film-womens-rights/


'SON OF SAUL"

http://deadline.com/2015/11/son-of-saul-laszlo-nemes-geza-rohrig-the-contenders-video-1201637711/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/features/how-son-saul-defied-dangers-838149

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/features/how-son-saul-defied-dangers-838149


"ROOM"

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2015/11/16/interview-brie-larson-discusses-emotional-power-room/


"STEVE JOBS"

http://thefilmstage.com/news/criterions-february-line-up-roger-deakins-jonathan-rosenbaum-danny-boyle-talks-and-more/


"SPOTLIGHT"

http://thefilmstage.com/news/watch-extensive-talks-with-the-real-life-journalists-behind-spotlight-and-the-cast/



That'll do for this Monday.  Come back for more Telluride-centric awards coverage on Thursday...


Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712