Updates on Oscar from The FAC: Screenplays and More / Producers Guild Nominations Announced

Good Thursday morning...Oscar nomination voting ends tomorrow and the nominations will be announced one week from today...buckle your seat belts...it's going to be bumpy ride...


UPDATES ON OSCAR FROM THE FAC: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

Almost everyone I know in the professional Oscar Pundit Universe has commented repeatedly about the fluidity and unpredictability of the Oscar season to date.  That has not diminished over the past three weeks since I last posted the Screenplay categories.  It has made it a fun season and suggests that we're going to see some surprises a week from today.  Cool.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

You may have noticed the absence of Peter Knegt from Indiewire.  He has left that website and consequently, it appears that Indiewire has doubled up on Anne Thompson's predictions.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Room (1)
2) The Big Short (5)
3) The Martian (3)
4) Steve Jobs (2)
5) Carol (6)

6) Brooklyn (4)
7) Anomalisa (7)
8) The Revenant (8)
9) Trumbo (9)
10) Creed (10)

Hot: The Big Short
Not: Steve Jobs and Brooklyn

Comment: The Big Short solidifies its position in the category.  The numbers suggest that the only real threats below the top five are Brooklyn and The Revenant.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) The Hateful Eight (3)
4) Bridge of Spies (4)
5) Ex Machina (5)

6) Straight Outta Compton (8)
7) Sicario (10)
8) Joy (6)
9) Trainwreck (7)
10) Youth (9)

Hot: Compton and Sicario
Not: Joy and Trainwreck

Comment:  Like Adapted Screenplays, the top ten remained consistent but there was good deal of jostling below the top five.


BEST FILM EDITING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road (3)chances.
2) Spotlight (2)
3) The Martian (6)
4) The Big Short (NR)
5) The Revenant (1)

6) Bridge of Spies (4)
7) Star Wars; The Force Awakens (NR)
8) Steve Jobs (5)
9) Sicario (8)
10) Creed (NR)

Hot: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, The Big Short, Creed
Not: Joy, Jurassic World and The Hateful Eight (which all dropped out of the top ten), Bridge of Spies and Steve Jobs.

Comment:  Lots of movement here and perhaps more to come as the American Cinema Editors guild nominations dropped Tuesday and did not include Spotlight.  That could mean to Oscar nomination for the Tom McCarthy film in that category and that is very often a crucial indicator of a film's Best Picture chances.  Sicario may be the most likely film to benefit from a Spotlight snub in the editing category.

I'll actually likely run the editing numbers again next week before the nominations are announced on Thursday.


Here's the rundown of "Eddie" nominees from the A.C.E. from The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/behind-screen/2016-ace-eddie-award-nominations-851748

BEST  CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Revenant (1)
2) Mad Max: Fury Road (3)
3) Sicario (2)
4) The Hateful Eight (6)
5) Carol (4)

6) The Martian (7)
7) Bridge of Spies (5)
8) The Danish Girl (9)
9) Son of Saul (10)
10) Creed (NR)

Hot: The Hateful Eight, Creed
Not: Bridge of Spies and In the Heart of the Sea

Comment:  Yesterday's guild announcement from the American Society of Cinematographers may well indicate that Bridge is better positioned and Hateful weaker than their respective decline and surge would indicate.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Son of Saul (1)
2) Mustang (3)
3) Labyrinth of Lies (2)
4) A War (NR)
5) Viva (7)

6) Theeb (NR)
7) A New Testament (NR)
8) Embrace of the Serpent (NR)
9) The Fencer (NR)

Comment: Since the last FAC post concerning this category, the release of the Academy's short list has turned the category topsy-turvy.  Son of Saul remains the big favorite, although Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention reports that "Saul" was one of the films added to semi-final list by the FLF committee rather than by the vote of the branch members which may indicate some serious weakness in its position.


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

1) Amy (1)
2) The Look of Silence (2)
3) Cartel Land (10)
4) Going Clear (3)
5) He Named Me Malala (7)

6) Where Are You Miss Simone? (9)
7) Listen to Me Marlon (8)
8) Where to Invade Next (6)
9) Best of Enemies (4)
10) The Hunting Ground (5)

Hot: Cartel Land, Malala, Miss Simone
Not: Where to Invade, Enemies and Hunting Ground

Comment: Really, after the first two docs, the category is still wide open...all the way down to the 11th place film: Winter on Fire.



PRODUCERS GUILD ANNOUNCES NOMINEES

The Producers Guild of America announced its list of nominees this week and Telluride films making the feature film cut included only Spotlight.  Carol, Room, Beats of No Nation where all snubbed.  Anomalisa was nominated for Best Animated Feature and The Look of Silence added a Best Doc nomination.

Coverage is here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/2016-producers-guild-film-nominations-852228

http://www.thewrap.com/producers-guild-nominates-ex-machina-sicario-and-straight-outta-compton-but-not-star-wars/




That's Thursday...more on Monday included more FAC Oscar updated categories.

 Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

The Cumulative FAC Recap (at This Point) / Oscar Matters: Podcasting Oscar / Interviews and Profiles: "Carol", "Suffragette", "Son of Saul", "Room", "Steve Jobs" and "Spotlight"

Welcome to Monday and here's hoping that everyone had a safe and joyful Thanksgiving holiday...

THE CUMULATIVE FAC RECAP (AT THIS POINT)

Over the past two weeks or so, I have posted the third update for the "Big Eight" Oscar categories (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress and Actor and Adapted and Original Screenplays) as well as four additional categories (Film Editing, Cinematography, Documentary Feature and Foreign Language Film).  I haven't yet tackled the other dozen categories that Oscar will reward in February (Animated Feature, Original Song and Score, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing and Editing, and the Shorts: Live Action, Animation and Documentary).  Those will come later as we get closer to nomination time (Jan. 14).

As we find ourselves on the cusp of end-of-the-year lists of the best in film making (The National Board of Review announces their top films tomorrow while the New York Film Critics Circle announces on Wednesday, The Los Angeles critics announce this coming weekend), I thought it'd be useful to collect all twelve of the categories that have been posted here in the last two weeks in one post.  So here they are:

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.


BEST PICTURE

"Spotlight" trailer via YouTube

1) Spotlight (1)
2) The Revenant (3)
3) The Martian (12)
4) Room (5)
5) Bridge of Spies (6)
6) Brooklyn (4)
7) Joy (7)
8) Steve Jobs (2)

9) Inside Out (11)
10) Carol (10)
11) The Hateful Eight (9)
12) The Big Short (NR)

Hot: "The Martian", "Inside Out", "The Big Short"
Cold: "Brooklyn", Steve Jobs", "The Hateful Eight" and "The Danish Girl" which dropped off the list entirely.
Comment:  "The Martian" change and the "Steve Jobs" box office debacle have really shaken this race up.  I'm not so sure that "Jobs" is completely out of this as Fassbender still has a lot of Best Actor support (see below).  At this point, I could see any of the top four films taking the big prize...and yes, I'm including "Room" in that assessment.  People really love the film and its strength is reflected in Lenny Abrahamson's climb in the director's race and Brie Larson's support in the Best Actress race.  Remember too, that it won the Toronto audience award and finished in the top spot in my collection of viewers' ratings for The People's Telluride.


BEST DIRECTION

"Room" trailer via YouTube

1) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (1)
2) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (3)
3) Ridley Scott/The Martian (7)
4) Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies (5)
5) Lenny Abrahamson/Room (NR)

6) David O. Russell/Joy (4)
7) George Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road (10)
8) Todd Haynes/Carol (8)
9) Danny Boyle/Steve Jobs (2)
10) Quentin Tarantino/The Hateful Eight (6)

Hot: Scott, Abrahamson and Miller.
Cold: Russell, Boyle and Tom Hooper (Danish Girl)
Comment:Danny Boyle's fall also underscores the drop in prospects for "Steve Jobs" as Abrahamson's ascendance emphasizes the popularity of "Room".  Also, "The Danish Girl" is taking a hit in both Picture and Directing categories.  Eddie Redmayne still seems to be competitive in the Best Actor category (see below).


BEST ACTRESS

"Carol" trailer via YouTube

1) Brie Larson/Room (1)
2) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy (2)
3) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (3)
4) Cate Blanchett/Carol (4)
5) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (6)

6) Carey Mulligan/Suffragette (5)
7) Blythe Danner/I'll See You in My Dreams (10)
8) Lily Tomlin/Grandma (7)
9) Maggie Smith/The Lady in the Van (9)
10) Cate Blanchett/Truth (8)

Hot: Danner
Cold: Blanchett in "Truth"
Comment: A remarkably steady category.  Larson is the closest thing to a lock in any of the four major categories in a year where "locks" have been few and far between.


BEST ACTOR

"Steve Jobs" trailer via YouTube

1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (3)
2) Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs (1)
3) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (2)
4) Johnny Depp/Black Mass (4)
5) Matt Damon/The Martian (6)

6) Michael Caine/Youth (5)
7) Will Smith/Concussion (8)
8) Tom Hanks/Bridge of Spies (7)
9) Ian McKellen/Mr. Holmes (9)
10) Steve Carell/The Big Short (10)


Hot: DiCaprio
Cold:  No one really.
Comment:  Both Fassbender and Redmayne stay in the thick of the race despite their films having suffered some serious doubts in the Picture and Directing categories.  The same could be said for Johnny Depp.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)
2) Rooney Mara/Carol (2)
3) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)
4) Jane Fonda/Youth (5)
5) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (4)

6) Elizabeth Banks/Love and Mercy (7)
7) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (6)
8) Joan Allen/Room (8)
9) Julie Walters/Brooklyn (9)
10) Jessica Chastain/The Martian (NR)

Hot: Chastain
Not: Kristen Stewart/Clouds of Sils Maria
Comment: Chastain's jump onto the list might signal the strength of "The Martian" while the resilience of Vikander suggests that my theory that "Danish Girl" is weak may be completely off. Additionally, Winslet stays steady, so "Steve Jobs" may not be as weak as a lot of people have been thinking.  Finally, Rooney Mara's Indie Spirit nomination in the lead category might signal that she could move out of this category come Oscar nomination morning.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (3)
2) Michael Keaton/Spotlight (1)
3) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (4)
4) Tom Hardy/The Revenant (2)
5) Jacob Tremblay/Room (6)

6) Paul Dano/Love and Mercy
7) Bencio Del Toro/Sicario (8)
8) Sylvester Stallone/Creed (NR)
9) Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation (5)
10) Harvey Keitel/Youth (10)

Hot: Ruffalo and Stallone
Not: Hardy, Elba and Joel Edgerton/Black Mass-who dropped off the top ten.
Comment:  The big story here is there serious emergence of Stallone as a player in the category.  As I write this on Thanksgiving morning, "Creed" is reportedly opened to banging box office and the reviews have been good.  Lookout for Stallone!

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Steve Jobs (1)
2) Room (3)
3) Brooklyn (2)
4) The Martian (7)
5) The Revenant (4)

6) Anomalisa (6)
7) Carol (5)
8) The Big Short (9)
9) The Danish Girl (8)
10) 45 Years (NR)

Hot: "The Martian" and "45 Years"
Not: "Carol" and "Beats of No Nation"
Comment: "Beasts falls out of the top ten.  It'll be interesting to see if it gets a boost from its Indy Spirit nominations (see below)


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) The Hateful Eight (4)
4) Bridge of Spies (5)
5) Joy (3)

6) Youth (6)
7) Sicario (7)
8) Love and Mercy (9)
9) Son of Saul (8)
10) Trainwreck (NR)

Hot: "Trainwreck"
Not: "Joy" and "Suffragette" which drops way off the top ten list.
Comment:"Spotlight" in this category is the only leader in any of the dozen categories that The FAC has looked at over these past three months since Telluride concluded to hit a perfect score.


BEST FILM EDITING

1) The Revenant
2) Spotlight
3) Mad Max: Fury Road
4) Bridge of Spies
5) Steve Jobs

6) The Martian
7) Joy
8) Sicario
9) The Hateful Eight
10) Jurassic Park

Comment: The category that has become semi-mythical in terms of its pairing with the eventual Best Picture winner seems to be among the top six films here.  Though, any of these ten could get in.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Revenant
2) Sicario
3) Mad Max; Fury Road
4) Carol
5) Bridge of Spies

6) The Hateful Eight
7) The Martian
8) In the Heart of the Sea
9) The Danish Girl
10) Son of Saul

Comment:  The five nominees probably come from the top seven listed here.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Son of Saul
2) Labyrinth of Lies
3) Mustang
4) Second Mother
5) The Assassin

6) Rams
7) Viva
8) Goodnight Mommy
9) The Club
10) A Pigeon Sat on a Branch...

Comment:  This category is largely believed to be about narrowing the field down to the four films that eventually lose to "Son of Saul".  In a year where most categories are still fairly unpredictable, "Saul" might be the surest bet for Oscar of any film in any category.


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Amy
2) The Look of Silence (TFF #41)
3) Going Clear
4) Best of Enemies
5) The Hunting Ground

6) Where Do We Invade Next?
7) He Named Me Malala
8) Listen to Me Marlon
9) Miss Simone
10) Cartel Land


Comment: Reflecting the sense that I got at Telluride this year, there's only one TFF #42 documentary that seems to have a shot this year and "Malala" is playing from behind.  TFF #41's "Look of Silence" looks solid.

If The FAC is 100% on the money, TFF #42 films would earn 22 nominations from these 12 categories with another 15 possibilities.

Since I started doing The FAC, Telluride films average 27 nominations each year.  This year looks like it should end up with about that number of nominations.


OSCAR MATTERS: PODCASTING OSCARS

Here are links to the most popular and influential podcasts that focus on the Oscar Race including Oscar Poker with Sasha Stone ans Jeffrey Wells (Awards Daily and Hollywood Elsewhere), Screen Talk with Anne Thompson and Eric Kohn (Thompson on Hollywood and Indiewire), Awards Chatter with Scott Feinberg (The Hollywood Reporter), Erik Anderson (Awards Watch) and Oscar Predictions Smackdown with Tom O'Neill (Gold Derby) and Sasha Stone as his guest:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2015/11/begins-with-anger-ends-with-acceptance/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/screen-talk-spirit-awards-surprises-whither-inarritus-the-revenant-20151125

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/awards-chatter-podcast-benicio-del-844097

http://awardswatch.com/podcasts/oscar-podcast-31-nbr-and-nyfcc-predix-plus-the-revenant-and-joy-finally-screen/

http://www.goldderby.com/news/10968/oscar-prediction-revenant-leonardo-dicaprio-leo-danish-girl-618372594.html


OSCAR MATTERS: THE PUNDITS' LATEST

Here's the latest in Oscar prognostications for the best in the business both individually and collectively:

Individuals: Sasha Stone/Awards Daily, Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter, Kristopher Tapley/Variety's InContention:


http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/11/27/predictions-friday-creed-lands/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/academy-awards-112515/

http://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/oscar-predictions-oscars-academy-awards-1201600870/

And collectively from The Gurus of Gold and Gold Derby:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/11/27/gurus-goldderby-check-in-thanksgiving-edition/

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/11/gurus-o-gold-14-weeks-to-oscar/

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/11/gurus-o-gold-the-picture-the-men-the-turkey-day-reccomendation/

http://www.goldderby.com/odds/experts/300/



INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES: "CAROL", "SUFFRAGETTE", "SON OF SAUL", "ROOM", "STEVE JOBS" AND "SPOTLIGHT"


"CAROL"

http://www.rollingstone.com/movies/news/cate-blanchett-on-why-carol-is-not-your-average-love-story-20151119

http://www.indiewire.com/article/todd-haynes-explains-the-cinematic-influences-that-impacted-his-carol-20151123

http://www.fandango.com/carol_184244/movieoverview

http://www.indiewire.com/article/watch-rooney-mara-and-cate-blanchett-forbidden-romance-blossoms-in-these-carol-clips-20151123

https://amp.twimg.com/v/c4bb3e9d-0133-4b7f-8c84-0994f96d33a6


'SUFFRAGETTE"

http://www.hitfix.com/the-dartboard/check-out-an-exclusive-featurette-featuring-carey-mulligan-in-suffragette

http://variety.com/video/suffragette-carey-mulligan-watch/

http://www.wearemoviegeeks.com/2015/11/suffragette-star-carey-mulligan-talks-about-film-womens-rights/


'SON OF SAUL"

http://deadline.com/2015/11/son-of-saul-laszlo-nemes-geza-rohrig-the-contenders-video-1201637711/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/features/how-son-saul-defied-dangers-838149

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/features/how-son-saul-defied-dangers-838149


"ROOM"

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2015/11/16/interview-brie-larson-discusses-emotional-power-room/


"STEVE JOBS"

http://thefilmstage.com/news/criterions-february-line-up-roger-deakins-jonathan-rosenbaum-danny-boyle-talks-and-more/


"SPOTLIGHT"

http://thefilmstage.com/news/watch-extensive-talks-with-the-real-life-journalists-behind-spotlight-and-the-cast/



That'll do for this Monday.  Come back for more Telluride-centric awards coverage on Thursday...


Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

The FAC and Other Oscar Categories / Oscar Matters: Pods / Focus On: "Spotlight", "Suffragette" and "Black Mass"

It's Thursday.

THE FAC LOOKS AT SOME OTHER OSCAR CATEGORIES

As we hit the mid-point of November, we're edging ever closer to the releases of a slew of year end critic's Ten Best lists.  December is rife with those and that's just around the corner.  They act as a constant reminder that the race for Oscar is about to get really serious.

Consequently, I thought I'd take the time today to run the numbers on a four Oscar categories that we haven't considered here at the FAC thus far for this season.  So today we look at Film Editing, Cinematography, Foreign Language Film and Documentary Feature.


For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.


BEST FILM EDITING

1) The Revenant
2) Spotlight
3) Mad Max: Fury Road
4) Bridge of Spies
5) Steve Jobs

6) The Martian
7) Joy
8) Sicario
9) The Hateful Eight
10) Jurassic Park

Comment: The category that has become semi-mythical in terms of its pairing with the eventual Best Picture winner seems to be among the top six films here.  Though, any of these ten could get in.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Revenant
2) Sicario
3) Mad Max; Fury Road
4) Carol
5) Bridge of Spies

6) The Hateful Eight
7) The Martian
8) In the Heart of the Sea
9) The Danish Girl
10) Son of Saul

Comment:  The five nominees probably come from the top seven listed here.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Son of Saul
2) Labyrinth of Lies
3) Mustang
4) Second Mother
5) The Assassin

6) Rams
7) Viva
8) Goodnight Mommy
9) The Club
10) A Pigeon Sat on a Branch...

Comment:  This category is largely believed to be about narrowing the field down to the four films that eventually lose to "Son of Saul".  In a year where most categories are still fairly unpredictable, "Saul" might be the surest bet for Oscar of any film in any category.


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Amy
2) The Look of Silence (TFF #41)
3) Going Clear
4) Best of Enemies
5) The Hunting Ground

6) Where Do We Invade Next?
7) He Named Me Malala
8) Listen to Me Marlon
9) Miss Simone
10) Cartel Land


Comment: Reflecting the sense that I got at Telluride this year, there's only one TFF #42 documentary that seems to have a shot this year and "Malala" is playing from behind.  TFF #41's "Look of Silence" looks solid.

If The FAC is 100% on the money, TFF #42 films earn another five nominations from these four categories with another four possibilities.


OSCAR MATTERS: PODS

Continuing our Thursday theme focused on the latest Oscar info, here are links to Oscar Poker with hosts Sasha Stone of Awards Daily and Jeffrey Wells of Hollywood Elsewhere and with special guest Erik Anderson of Awards Watch:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/podcasts/oscarpoker/episode115.mp3

and Awards Chatter featuring The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/awards-chatter-podcast-michael-moore-838623


And here's a handy overview of over thirty films culled by the staff at Variety that they believe have the largest Oscar potential.  The list includes Telluride #42 films: "Anomalisa", "Beasts of No Nation", "Black Mass", "Carol", "45 Years", "Room", "Son of Saul", "Spotlight", "Steve Jobs" and "Suffragette".  Here's the link to the complete list:


http://variety.com/gallery/best-pictures-oscar-contenders-2015/


FOCUS ON: "SPOTLIGHT", "SUFFRAGETTE" AND "BLACK MASS"

This section includes interviews from "Suffragette" director Sarah Gavron, "Black Mass' star Johnny Depp and "Spotlight" director Tom McCarthy.  There's also a link to a dissection of "Spotlight" from Uproxx:


Sarah Gavron:

http://theyoungfolks.com/review/sarah-gavron-interview-suffragette/66460

Johnny Depp:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/afi-fest-johnny-depp-talks-black-mass-auditioning-for-the-coen-brothers-working-with-scott-cooper-more-20151109

Tom McCarthy:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/telluride-director-tom-mccarthy-puts-spotlight-on-sexually-predatory-catholic-priests-20150908

"Spotlight" feature:

http://uproxx.com/movies/2015/11/spotlight-inside-story/


That's the Thursday edition of MTFB/FAC.  Come back on Monday for more and have a great weekend...

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

Interviews and Backgrounds for "Malala", "Steve Jobs" and "Room" / Oscar Matters: Screen Talk, Oscar Poker and The Awards Pundits

Good Monday to all.  Back from Dallas and headed back to the every day...


INTERVIEWS AND BACKGROUNDS FOR...

"HE NAMED ME MALALA"

Time's Eliza Berman is behind this "Behind the scenes"featurette about the creation of the Davis Guggenheim documentary "He Named Me Malala".

That is here:

http://time.com/4075739/malala-yousafzai-featurette/


"STEVE JOBS"

The National Board of Review talks about the Danny Boyle film that peers at the life of Apple co-creator Steve Jobs,  Included in the Q and A are Boyle, Michael Fassbender, Kate Winslet, Jeff Daniels and screenwriter Aaron Sorkin.

Here that is:

http://www.nationalboardofreview.org/2015/10/qa-with-michael-fassbender-jeff-daniels-danny-boyle-aaron-sorkin-and-kate-winslet/


"ROOM"

The NBR folks also spent some time with Brie Larson discussing her film, "Room".  Here's the link for that:

http://www.nationalboardofreview.org/2015/10/qa-with-brie-larson/


OSCAR MATTERS:  SCREEN TALK AND THE AWARDS PUNDITS

Here's the link to the latest installment of Screen Talk featuring Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood and Eric Kohn of Indiewire.  Included are discussions of "Room" and "Beasts of No Nation":

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/screen-talk-we-handicap-the-awards-chances-of-a-slew-of-new-weekend-openers-20151016

Sasha Stone and Jeff Wells (with special guest Erik Anderson of Awards Watch) are here with their latest look at the Oscar field on Oscar Poker:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/10/18/oscar-poker-dives-into-the-top-categories/

Meanwhile, over at The Hollywood Reporter, there's another edition of "The Awards Pundits" with Scott Feinberg and Steve Galloway.  "Beasts of No Nation" also gets a mention in there discussion as does "Steve Jobs".  That is here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/awards-pundits-oscar-presidential-race-832659



That's it for a Monday in October.  More to come on Thursday including a new look at the Film Awards Clearinghouse for Best Picture, Director, Actress and Actor.


Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

Your First Film Awards Clearinghouse foe 2015-16 / Breaking Down Possible Nominations / Oscar Poker / Malala in New York

It's Monday!  Back to the grind!


YOUR FIRST FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE FOR 2015-16

Oscar season is unapologetically upon us.  You can lament the early start and the long campaign, and many do, but that won't change the fact that it's here...

So, here's your first look at The FAC in the four "biggest" categories: Best Picture, Director, Actress and Actor.

As I have done in the past, I collate the publicly posted predictions of some of best Oscar experts in the business and then crunch the numbers to come up with The FAC consensus.  This year we begin with information from:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Spotlight
2) The Revenant
3) Steve Jobs
4) The Danish Girl
5) Bridge of Spies
6) Carol
7) Brooklyn
8) Joy
9) The Hateful Eight
10) Room
11) The Martian
12) Inside Out

Comment: Telluride films look good early to land three Best Picture nominations (Spotlight, Steve Jobs. Carol) with a shot for a fourth (Room) and outside possibilities for Son of Saul, Beasts of No Nation and Black Mass.

Look out for The Martian.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight
2) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant
3) Danny Boyle/Steve Jobs
4) Todd Haynes/Carol
5) Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies
6) David O. Russell/Joy
7) Quentin Tarantino/The Hateful Eight
8) Tom Hooper/The Danish Girl
9) Cary Fukunaga/Beasts of No Nation
10) George Miller/Mad Max:Fury Road

Comment: I actually think Tom Hooper's relative weakness here may indicate that The Danish Girl isn't as much of a Best Pic lock as the BP FAC chart indicates.


BEST ACTRESS

1) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy
2) Brie Larson/Room
3) Carey Mulligan/Suffragette
4) Cate Blanchett/Carol
5) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn
6) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years
7) Cate Blanchett/Truth
8) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl
9) Lily Tomlin/Grandma
10) Maggie Smith/Lady in the Van

Comment: Could Blanchett get two separate nominations?  Maybe.


BEST ACTOR

1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant
2) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl
3) Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs
4) Johnny Depp/Black Mass
5) Michael Caine/Youth
6) Matt Damon/The Martian
7) Tom Hanks/Bridge of Spies
8) Bryan Cranston/Trumbo
9) Will Smith/Concussion
10) Steve Carrel/The Big Short

Comment: The top four spots are really tightly bunched together.  The battle for that last spot could be intense!


BREAKING DOWN POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS

I took a look at a selected foursome of the above Oscar experts to see what they were predicting at this point for particular TFF #42 films.  None of them have a complete list for every single category (Feinberg, for example, has posted his analysis for 11 categories) so keep that in mind.

Here's what they are predicting as of this week:

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit;

Carol: Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Score.  That's nine nominations!

Spotlight: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor (Ruffalo)***, Original Screenplay and Film Editing.  Total: Six.  The announcement this week that all members of the Spotlight cast will be campaigned as Supporting players  could change some things.  It had been reported that Open Road was looking at Ruffalo as a possible Lead Actor candidate and there has been some discussion that Michael Keaton might be the natural Lead Actor choice.  Now, it seems neither of those things are likely.  I suspect over the next few weeks that Keaton will show up more and more in the Supporting category from the prediction experts.

Steve Jobs: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing. Total: Six.

Room: Best Picture, Actress.  Total: Two

Son of Saul: Best Foreign Film, Original Screenplay.  Total: Two

Black Mass: Actor
Suffragette: Actress
Beasts of No Nation:Supporting Actor
Anomalisa: Animated Film

TFF #42 Total: 29

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter:

Spotlight: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay

Steve Jobs: Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay

Room: Best Picture, Actress, Adapted Screenplay

Carol: Best Actress, Supporting Actress

Black Mass: Actor, Supporting Actor

45 Years: Actress

Anomalisa: Animated Film
Seymour; An Introduction (from TFF #41): Documentary

Total TFF #42 nominations: 17 (in 11 categories)

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/oscars-91815/


Sasha Stone/Awards Daily:

Carol: Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes.  Total-8

Spotlight: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing.  Total-5

Steve Jobs: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay.  Total-5

Room: Best Picture, Actress

Beats of No Nation: Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay

Suffragette: Actress, Costumes

Anomalisa: Animated, Original Screenplay

Son of Saul; Foreign Language, Sound Mixing

Black Mass; Actor
45 Years: Actress
Winter on Fire: Documentary
The Look of Silence (TFF #41): Documentary

Total for TFF #42: 31

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/09/oscar-predictions-friday-the-oscar-race-at-the-half-way-point/

Kristopher Tapley/Variety/InContention

Steve Jobs: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing. Total-6

Spotlight: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Film Editing.  Total-5.

Black Mass: Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Makeup.  Total-4.

Room: Best Picture, Actress, Adapted Screenplay.  Total-3.

Carol: Supporting Actress, Costumes, Production Design.  Total-3

45 Years: Best Actress
Anomalisa: Animated Feature
Son of Saul: Foreign Language
Rams: Foreign Language
Viva: Foreign Language
The Look of Silence (TFF #41): Documentary

TFF #42 Total: 26

http://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/oscar-predictions-oscars-academy-awards-1201600870/


OSCAR POKER

I have included the link to the ltest Oscar Poker podcast from Sasha Stone/Awards Daily and Jeffrey Wells/Hollywood Elsewhere:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2015/09/on-the-game/


MALALA IN NEW YORK

Nobel Peace Prize winner and subject of the documentary "He Named Me Malala", Malala Yousafzai has been in New York for the past few days for the NYFF premiere of the doc, to speak to the U.N. She also made an appearance on Stephen Colbert's new Late Show.  "Malala" first screened at Telluride with director Davis Guggenheim and Malala's father Ziauddin on hand.

Malala talked to Paul Chi of Variety at the premiere of the film:

http://variety.com/2015/scene/vpage/malala-yousafzai-he-named-me-malala-premiere-1201602723/


That's all for this Monday.  Back on Thursday with more...


And don't be afraid to contact me:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

The People's Telluride / "Amazing Grace" Saga Continues / Oscar Matters

It's Thursday and time for another episode of Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse...


THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE

Ten days after the conclusion of TFF #42, I have the results of the fourth annual "People's Telluride". Since the fests close, I have been gathering the data that Telluride film followers have been sending my way since then.  Over two dozen respondents sent their evaluations.  Using the same criteria as I did for The Professionals Telluride, films were collated only of they received evaluations from at least a third of those respondents.  With that, here are the results of The People with the rating average in parenthesis:

1) Room (4.47)
2) Spotlight (4.45)
3) Beasts of No Nation (4.35)
4) Ixcanul (4.31)
5) Son of Saul (4.30)
6) Marguerite (4.23)
7) Black Mass (4.13)
8) Carol (4.02)
9) Rams (3.98)
10) Steve Jobs (3.86)
11) 45 Years (3.78)
12) Suffragette (3.58)
13) He Named Me Malala (3.39)
14) Anomalisa (3.36)

The People included three films that the Pros did not: "Ixcanul", "Marguerite" and "Rams".  The Pros had "Taxi" and "Time to Choose" on their list that The People excluded.

The biggest agreement between the sets of data came toward the bottom of the list as The Pros and The People both placed "Suffragette" and "He Named Me Malala" at the #12 and #13 spots respectively.

The greatest disparity came at the top and bottom and vice versa for each set of data.  The People really loved "Room" as it reigns at the top of the People's list but The Pros had it as their #11 film (of 13).  Meanwhile, the Pros were all about Charlie Kaufman and Duke Johnson's "Anomalisa" rating it #2 (just behind "Son of Saul") but the People had it at the bottom of their list at #14 (of 14).

Last year The People preferred "The Imitation Game" with a stellar 4.73 rating.  "Birdman" was #2 with a rating of 4.46.

In 2013, "Tim's Vermeer" led the People's poll with a 4.67 rating and "12 Years a Slave" was second with a rating of 4.55.

In 2012, "Stories We Tell was tops with a 4.80 closely followed by "Argo" with a 4.75.

Coming on Monday...The Combo Telluride...what happens when we put the two lists together?  We shall see.

Seems to me that being #2 on The People's Telluride is a real harbinger as "Argo", "12 Years a Slave" and "Birdman" all won the Best Picture Oscar.  So if you're Tom McCarthy and the crew from "Spotlight"...maybe a sign of things to come.




"AMAZING GRACE" SAGA CONTINUES

The legal saga that began at Telluride on its opening day between the producer of "Amazing Grace" and its subject, Aretha Franklin.  Took a new twist this week.  Franklin sued in Colorado court and obtained an injunction on T-ride's opening day which torpedoed the planned screening of the documentary just hours before it was set to appear.

Subsequently, planned screenings at both the Toronto and Chicago Film Fests were also scuttled.  This week, amid reports that the film was about to be screened privately for prospective distributors brought yet another threat to sue from Franklin and her lawyers.

In light of all this, producer Alan Elliot has agreed to a 30 day moratorium on screening of the film. Speculation is that the 30 day hold will  be used for both sides to negotiate terms under which the film could be screened.

Here's the story from Variety:


http://variety.com/2015/film/news/aretha-franklin-lawsuit-amazing-grace-documentary-1201594489/




OSCAR MATTERS

MTFB continues to make its annual transition from a Telluride film prediction outlet to a Telluride film in the awards season blog by looking at the latest and best prediction professionals and what they are saying after Telluride, Venice and now that Toronto is winding down.

Gold Derby shows a sharp rise for "Spotlight" and "Steve Jobs" from the Telluride plays and reactions.  Meanwhile, Sasha Stone reports that Vulture's Kyle Buchanan has claimed that "Spotlight" is out front in the Oscar race right now.  Take a look at both stories here:


Gold Derby

http://www.goldderby.com/news/10367/oscar-predictions-best-picture-steve-jobs-the-revenant-leonardo-dicaprio-975386420.html


Buchanan

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/09/kyle-buchanan-declares-spotlight-frontrunner-out-of-toronto/


More on Monday including The Combination Telluride...combining of the Professionals and The People's Telluride.  Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

The Professionals Telluride / Speaking of Saul / Tis the Season...For Oscar Speculation / Rate the Films!

Welcome to Monday...a week removed from the conclusion of TFF #42 and it already seems too long ago and, of course, too long until TFF #43.

THE PROFESSIONALS TELLURIDE

The Pros have spoken.  The results below after a word or two.

In all 13 additional professionals were kind enough to lend their input to this project, now in its fourth incarnation.  Mark Johnson of AwardsCircuit.com was a late entry to the project and I was happy to add his voice to those of the others.

The compete list of professionals is as follows:

Nick Allen/Chicago Film Critics Assn. member/RogerEbert.com
Alex Billington/FirstShowing.net..
David Ehrlich/Time Out New York
Greg Ellwood/HitFix
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Eric Kohn/Indiewire
Mark Johnson/AwardsCircuit.com
Tomris Laffly/Movie Mezzanine/Film Journal
Kenny Miles/The Movie Blog
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety/InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

You should know that I only included films that received ratings from at least one third of the panel which left films like "Rams" and "Hitchcock/Truffaut just off of the list.  In all 13 films made the cut with enough ratings to be included.

Here are your results for 2015 with their cumulative rating following in parenthesis:

1) Son of Saul (4.44)
2) Anomalisa (4.42)
3) Spotlight (4.41)
4) Steve Jobs (4.31)
5) Beasts of No Nation (4.27)
6) Carol (4.11)
7) 45 Years (4.06)
8) Taxi (4.00)
9) Black Mass (3.85)
10) Time to Choose (3.57)
11) Room (3.50)
12) Suffragette (3.49)
13) He Named Me Malala (2.83)


"Son of Saul" tops The Professionals poll for TFF #42.  You might recall from last week that "Saul" also topped Indiewrie's Critic's poll for the fest as well.  Compared to past poll leaders, "Saul" lagged a bit.  In 2014 "Birdman" lead the Pros ratings with a combined 4.72.  Even second place film "Foxcatcher" rated better at 4.63.

In 2013, "12 Years a Slave led the way with a 4.7 rating.  In 2012, the first year for the project, "The Central Park Five was on top with a 4.7 rating as well.

Thursday, we'll see how The People compare when I post those results.  If you haven't sent me your ratings...now is the time as Wednesday at 5pm Pacific Daylight Time is the deadline for inclusion.


SPEAKING OF "SAUL"

The probable front runner for Best Foreign Language Oscar and Cannes Grand Prix winner, "Son of Saul" is also making a splash at Toronto.  That fest started on Sept. 10 and runs until this weekend (The 20th).  The Film Stage linked a 30 minute interview with the films young rookie director, Laszlo Nemes that you can access here:

http://thefilmstage.com/news/watch-son-of-saul-director-laszlo-nemes-30-minute-tiff-discussion-on-his-cannes-winning-drama/


TIS THE SEASON...FOR OSCAR SPECULATION

It has begun and won't end until the end of February.  Oscar season is upon us with Venice and Telluride concluded and Toronto half way over.  What's the Oscar buzz?

Check out Oscar Poker with Sasha Stone/Awards Daily and Jeffrey Wells/Hollywood Elsewhere:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/podcasts/oscarpoker/episode108.mp3


As well as Sasha's first take after Toronto got underway:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/09/whats-the-buzz-out-of-toronto-so-far/



ANOTHER REMINDER: DON'T FORGET TO SEND YOUR RATINGS BY WEDNESDAY!

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

Once in a Lifetime / Legal Weirdness / For Those Who Are Curious / Saturday TBAs

Day Two of TFF #42...

ONCE IN A LIFETIME

So, I got back to the condo very late on Thursday night and got to work on the post that went up yesterday.  As I was working through the various modes of information gathering that I use, I opened an email that had a curious address and subject line, but that's not unusual during Telluride week.

Turns out it was from Eason Jordan who is the Director of Special Projects for The Malala Fund. The message said that he and Malala's father, Ziauddin Yousafzai had been reading the blog and that they had particularly noted that I had written about her and being a teacher (in my real life job) on Wednesday.  Go look at it, I'll wait...

I was a little bit passionate.


Well, Mr. Jordan expressed an interest on the part of Ziauddin to meet...me.

I was floored.  Stunned.  I kind of thought it might be a hoax but I responded to Mr. Jordan and through a series of texts...well...

That's the father of a Nobel Peace Prize winner and a fellow teacher allowing another teacher to express his gratitude.  I was blown away by his warmth and kindness.  My thanks to Eason Jordan, who was beyond gracious in putting the two of us together and to Ziauddin for taking the time.  Also a big thank you to my wife who was also saluted by both men for for also being a part of the teaching profession and who also took some of the pictures.

One of the greatest moments in Telluride and really, in my life.

LEGAL WEIRDNESS

If you had plans to catch the Aretha Franklin documentary "Amazing Grace", those plans got radically altered at the last minute yesterday as a Colorado judge granted Franklin an injunction to keep the film from screening here in Telluride.

As I finish writing this post, it appears that the Fest has made its peace with the ruling and that other films will be scheduled in the spots that "Grace" was going to play.  For example, "Carol" is replacing it in the 10:30 pm slot at the Galaxy tonight (see all the TBA info below).

I've linked The Hollywood Reporter story about the legal proceeding and decision here:



http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr-esq/aretha-franklin-granted-injunction-stop-820609



FOR THOSE WHO ARE CURIOUS

Yesterday: "Malala" and "Carol".  Today:

"Suffragette"
"Anomalisa" or "45 Years" or Retour de Flamme"
"Spotlight"
"Steve Jobs"
And if I still have any juice, maybe "Marguerite"



Saturday TBAs

• 17 Viva Galaxy 1:15 PM

• 10 Room Werner Herzog Theatre 1:30 PM

• 16 Mom and Me Masons Hall Cinema 3:30 PM

• 20 Rams Werner Herzog Theatre 4:00 PM

• *b Sherpa Sheridan Opera House 4:15 PM

• G Dreaming Against the World + Tyrus Le Pierre 6:00 PM

• 41 Great Expectations Masons Hall Cinema 6:30 PM

• 7a Steve Jobs Galaxy 7:30 PM

• C Heart of a Dog Masons Hall Cinema 10:00 PM

• 1a Carol Galaxy 10:30 PM

• Noon, Elks Park

“To what extent can fiction films grapple with historical abuses?”

with Meryl Streep, Sarah Gavron, Tom McCarthy, Michael Keaton, Rachel McAdams, László Nemes, Géza Röhrig

AMAZING GRACE will not be shown at this year's festival due to an injunction filed by Aretha Franklin. All slots where AMAZING GRACE was scheduled will be filled with another of our festival films.

REMEMBER TO RATE YOUR FILMS!

Please feel free to leave a comment or question here at the blog.

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