Monday, September 28, 2015

Your First Film Awards Clearinghouse foe 2015-16 / Breaking Down Possible Nominations / Oscar Poker / Malala in New York

It's Monday!  Back to the grind!


Oscar season is unapologetically upon us.  You can lament the early start and the long campaign, and many do, but that won't change the fact that it's here...

So, here's your first look at The FAC in the four "biggest" categories: Best Picture, Director, Actress and Actor.

As I have done in the past, I collate the publicly posted predictions of some of best Oscar experts in the business and then crunch the numbers to come up with The FAC consensus.  This year we begin with information from:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.


1) Spotlight
2) The Revenant
3) Steve Jobs
4) The Danish Girl
5) Bridge of Spies
6) Carol
7) Brooklyn
8) Joy
9) The Hateful Eight
10) Room
11) The Martian
12) Inside Out

Comment: Telluride films look good early to land three Best Picture nominations (Spotlight, Steve Jobs. Carol) with a shot for a fourth (Room) and outside possibilities for Son of Saul, Beasts of No Nation and Black Mass.

Look out for The Martian.


1) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight
2) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant
3) Danny Boyle/Steve Jobs
4) Todd Haynes/Carol
5) Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies
6) David O. Russell/Joy
7) Quentin Tarantino/The Hateful Eight
8) Tom Hooper/The Danish Girl
9) Cary Fukunaga/Beasts of No Nation
10) George Miller/Mad Max:Fury Road

Comment: I actually think Tom Hooper's relative weakness here may indicate that The Danish Girl isn't as much of a Best Pic lock as the BP FAC chart indicates.


1) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy
2) Brie Larson/Room
3) Carey Mulligan/Suffragette
4) Cate Blanchett/Carol
5) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn
6) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years
7) Cate Blanchett/Truth
8) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl
9) Lily Tomlin/Grandma
10) Maggie Smith/Lady in the Van

Comment: Could Blanchett get two separate nominations?  Maybe.


1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant
2) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl
3) Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs
4) Johnny Depp/Black Mass
5) Michael Caine/Youth
6) Matt Damon/The Martian
7) Tom Hanks/Bridge of Spies
8) Bryan Cranston/Trumbo
9) Will Smith/Concussion
10) Steve Carrel/The Big Short

Comment: The top four spots are really tightly bunched together.  The battle for that last spot could be intense!


I took a look at a selected foursome of the above Oscar experts to see what they were predicting at this point for particular TFF #42 films.  None of them have a complete list for every single category (Feinberg, for example, has posted his analysis for 11 categories) so keep that in mind.

Here's what they are predicting as of this week:

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit;

Carol: Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Score.  That's nine nominations!

Spotlight: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor (Ruffalo)***, Original Screenplay and Film Editing.  Total: Six.  The announcement this week that all members of the Spotlight cast will be campaigned as Supporting players  could change some things.  It had been reported that Open Road was looking at Ruffalo as a possible Lead Actor candidate and there has been some discussion that Michael Keaton might be the natural Lead Actor choice.  Now, it seems neither of those things are likely.  I suspect over the next few weeks that Keaton will show up more and more in the Supporting category from the prediction experts.

Steve Jobs: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing. Total: Six.

Room: Best Picture, Actress.  Total: Two

Son of Saul: Best Foreign Film, Original Screenplay.  Total: Two

Black Mass: Actor
Suffragette: Actress
Beasts of No Nation:Supporting Actor
Anomalisa: Animated Film

TFF #42 Total: 29

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter:

Spotlight: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay

Steve Jobs: Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay

Room: Best Picture, Actress, Adapted Screenplay

Carol: Best Actress, Supporting Actress

Black Mass: Actor, Supporting Actor

45 Years: Actress

Anomalisa: Animated Film
Seymour; An Introduction (from TFF #41): Documentary

Total TFF #42 nominations: 17 (in 11 categories)

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily:

Carol: Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes.  Total-8

Spotlight: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing.  Total-5

Steve Jobs: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay.  Total-5

Room: Best Picture, Actress

Beats of No Nation: Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay

Suffragette: Actress, Costumes

Anomalisa: Animated, Original Screenplay

Son of Saul; Foreign Language, Sound Mixing

Black Mass; Actor
45 Years: Actress
Winter on Fire: Documentary
The Look of Silence (TFF #41): Documentary

Total for TFF #42: 31

Kristopher Tapley/Variety/InContention

Steve Jobs: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing. Total-6

Spotlight: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Film Editing.  Total-5.

Black Mass: Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Makeup.  Total-4.

Room: Best Picture, Actress, Adapted Screenplay.  Total-3.

Carol: Supporting Actress, Costumes, Production Design.  Total-3

45 Years: Best Actress
Anomalisa: Animated Feature
Son of Saul: Foreign Language
Rams: Foreign Language
Viva: Foreign Language
The Look of Silence (TFF #41): Documentary

TFF #42 Total: 26


I have included the link to the ltest Oscar Poker podcast from Sasha Stone/Awards Daily and Jeffrey Wells/Hollywood Elsewhere:


Nobel Peace Prize winner and subject of the documentary "He Named Me Malala", Malala Yousafzai has been in New York for the past few days for the NYFF premiere of the doc, to speak to the U.N. She also made an appearance on Stephen Colbert's new Late Show.  "Malala" first screened at Telluride with director Davis Guggenheim and Malala's father Ziauddin on hand.

Malala talked to Paul Chi of Variety at the premiere of the film:

That's all for this Monday.  Back on Thursday with more...

And don't be afraid to contact me: OR OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

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