Wonderstruck Will Strike in October / First Look at Haneke's Happy End / Redoutable Teaser Gets Meta / The Future for Past Telluriders / Amazon Rewards Manchester

Welcome to Thursday on MTFB...



WONDERSTRUCK WILL STRIKE IN OCTOBER

The case for Todd Haynes being a Telluride contender got another supportive piece of evidence yesterday as the peeps at Amazon and Roadside Attractions, who have paired to distribute the film, have announced a limited release date of October 20th.   The film will then proceed to be opened wider in November.

It wasn't long yesterday before journos pointed out that that time frame has served as the launchpad for four of the last five Oscar BP winners: Argo 10/12/12, 12 Years a Slave 10/18/13, Birdman 10/17/14, and Moonlight 10/21/16.  Only Spotlight has broken that pattern opening on 11/6/15.  Of course, all of those films played Telluride on their way to the Best Picture prize.

Honestly, when I get serious about posting a rough first guess at what will make the T-ride 2017 lineup, Wonderstruck might be the film on the top of that list.

Linked below is coverage of the release announcement from:

Variety

Indiewire

Awards Watch

The Playlist

The Wrap



FIRST LOOK AT HANEKE'S HAPPY END

Another film that will be in the hunt for the Cannes' Palme d'Or in a couple of weeks (and it could be an unprecedented third for its director...lots of predictors think that's a very real possibility) is Michael Haneke's Happy End.  Haneke hasn't made a film since his last Palme winner in 2012.  Amour also won the Best Foreign Language Film Oscar.

We got our first photo from the secretive film yesterday as you see above.  The still shows, among others Isabelle Huppert, Jean-Louis Trintignant and Toby Jones.  Further coverage of the image and the film is here from Indiwire and here from The Playlist.



REDOUBTABLE TEASER GETS META

This week we got a new glimpse of Michel Hazanavicius' newest film, Redoubtable, which is set to debut at Cannes this month in the Palme d'Or competition.  The teaser includes some references to the festival that should elicit a chuckle or two.  Check the teaser below (from YouTube):

Redoubtable is based on the life of film pioneer Jean-Luc Godard.

More on the teaser release for Redoubtable is here from Entertainment Weekly as well as here from The Playlist.

THE FUTURE FOR PAST TELLURIDERS

I've mentioned with some frequency the next project for Moonlight's Barry Jenkins which is the multi-part adaptation of Colson Whitehead's National Book Award and Pulitzer Prize winning
Underground Railroad for Amazon Studios.

In the last few days we have seen the plans of two other notable and recent past Telluriders come into focus.

Indiewire reports that Oscar winning director Damien Chazelle is lining up another musically oriented project.  The story was originally reported by The Hollywood Reporter.

Titled The Eddy, the story centers around a Paris music club.  As with Jenkins, the project is being set up as an episodic project and is being shopped around to streaming services and networks.  Reports suggest that Chazelle would direct his next feature film project, First Man starring Ryan Reynolds as Neil Armstrong, and then get to work on The Eddy.

The other news of note regarding a new project involving a recent Tellurider and Oscar winner was news yesterday that Laszlo Nemes is set to begin filming Sunset.  Nemes made a huge splash in 2015 with his debut film Son of Saul which played Cannes (winning Nemes the Grand Prix award) and then Telluride.  Son of Saul went on to win the Oscar for Best Foreign Film.

The Playlist reports  that Sunset will begin filming next month and that the plan is that it would play Cannes which would make it a prime TFF #45 possibility.

Stay tuned.


AMAZON REWARDS MANCHESTER

How do you say thank you to a community that serves as the backdrop and title of your Oscar award winning film (and TFF #43 selection)?

Amazon Studios has gifted the citizens of Manchester, Massachusetts a year's worth of free Amazon Prime memberships.  They even threw in the popcorn.

Amazon announced the gift this week according to The Hollywood Reporter.



And that will do it for this Thursday.  Have a good weekend and come back here Monday for more...

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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COMMENT to the BLOG

And The Oscar Went To...

Good Post Oscar Monday peeps!

AND THE OSCAR WENT TO...

Here are your results from last night's presentation of the 88th Academy Awards (Telluride #42 films are in Bold):


Animated Short: Bear Story

Documentary Short: The Girl in the River

Live Action Short: Stutterer

Sound Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Mixing: Mad Max:Fury Road

Makeup/Hair: Mad Max; Fury Road

Costumes: Mad Max: Fury Road

Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road

Visual Effects: Ex Machina

Original Song: Writings on the Wall/Spectre

Original Score: The Hateful Eight

Cinematography: The Revenant

Film Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road

Documentary Feature: Amy

Animated Feature: Inside Out

Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul

Original Screenplay: Spotlight

Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short

Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance

Supporting Actress; Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl

Lead Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant

Lead Actress: Brie Larson/Room

Direction; Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant

Best Picture: Spotlight 



Telluride 2015 Films with wins:

Oscar totals:

The Revenant wins  three Oscars

Mad Max:Fury Road wins six Oscars.

Spotlight won two Oscars.

The FAC goes   15/24 in its Oscar picks for 63 %.  The FAC did have the actual winners in seven of its misses as possible spoilers.

Telluride #42 films won four Oscars:  Spotlight two, Son of Saul and Room (Brie Larson/Best Actress) one apiece.

The Telluride streakof the first North American screening of the eventual Best Picture winner continues :

2008-Slumdog Millionaire
2010- The King's Speech
2011-The Artist
2012- Argo
2013- 12 Years a Slave
2014- Birdman
2015- Spotlight

Six straight years and seven of the last eight.

Biggest surprise of the night was the Ex Machina win for Visual Effects.

More coverage and a turning of the page coming on Thursday's post from Michael's Telluride Film Blog...What will we see in the San Juans this Labor Day?

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mpgort@gmail.com OR

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The (Probably) Final Film Awards Clearinghouse Oscar Predictions / Oscar Odds and Ends / Final (?) Oscar Predictions from the Experts

Good morning America; how are you?

THE (PROBABLY) FINAL FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE OSCAR PREDICTIONS

Barring something really unusal happening between now and Sunday night, this is the best assessment that The FAC has about all 24 Oscar categories and what is likely to be announced by The Academy as the Best of film from 2015.

As always...

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

Live Action Short:

Winner: Shok

Spoiler(s) Day One, Stutterer or Ave Maria 

Documentary Short Subject:

Winner: Claude Lanzman: Spectres of The Shoah

Spoiler(s): Either Body Team 12 or Chau, Beyond the Lines

Animated Short:

Winner: World of Tomorrow

Spoiler(s): Sanjay's Super Team or Bear Story

Sound Editing:

Winner: The Revenant

Spoiler: Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Mixing:

Winner: The Revenant

Spoiler: Mad Max: Fury Road

Visual Effects:

Winner: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Spoilers: The Revenant or Mad Max: Fury Road

Makeup/Hair:

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

Spoiler: The Revenant

Costumes:

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

Spoiler: Carol

Production Design:

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

Spoiler: The Revenant

Original Song:

Winner: Til It Happens to You/The Hunting Ground

Spoiler: Writings on the Wall/Spectre

Original Score:

Winner: The Hateful Eight

Spoiler: Star Wars; The Force Awakens

Cinematography:

Winner: The Revenant

Spoiler: Mad Max; Fury Road

Film Editing:

Winner:Mad Max: Fury Road

Spoiler: The Big Short

Documentary Feature:

Winner: Amy

Spoiler: Cartel Land

Animated Feature:

Winner: Inside Out

Spoiler: Anomalisa

Foreign Language Feature:

Winner: Son of Saul

Spoiler: Mustang

Original Screenplay:
Winner: Spotlight
Spoiler: Inside Out

Adapted Screenplay:
Winner: The Big Short
Spoiler: Room

Supporting Actor:
Winner: Sylvester Stallone/Creed
Spolier(s): Christian Bale/The Big Short or Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies

Supporting Actress:
Winner: Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl
Spoiler: Rooney Mara/Carol

Lead Actor:
Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant
Spoiler: Bryan Cranston/Trumbo

Lead Actress:
Winner: Brie Larson/Room
Spoiler: Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn

Director:
Winner: Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant
Spoiler: Adam McKay/The Big Short

Best Picture:
Winner: The Revenant
Spoiler(s): Either Spotlight or The Big Short

OSCAR ODDS AND ENDS

The likeliest categories for surprises (and the ones that will probably determine your office pool or your Gold Derby or Awards Daily Oscar contests) are: the three shorts categories, sound editing and mixing, production design, costumes, film editing, and Best Picture.

If The FAC is 100% accurate...

The night's big winner, and I do mean BIG,  will Alejandro Inarritu's The Revenant, which The FAC is currently predicting as the winner of six Oscars: Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Cinematography, Direction, Lead Actor and Best Picture.  

The ONLY other film that is predicted for multiple Oscars is Mad Max: Fury Road with four: Best Film Editing, Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

All other winners look like they will be taking home single statues.

TFF #42 films will account for three Oscars for Spotlight's original screenplay, Son of Saul as Foreign Language Film and Brie Larson winning Best Actress for Room.  Telluride could have films that play the spoiler in six other categories with the most likely spoilers being Sanjay's Super Team as Animated Short and Spotlight as Best Picture.

The FAC historical accuracy record is 76%.  I've been crunching numbers since the 2010 Oscars but The FAC has gotten better over time.  The accuracy rate for the past two years has been 88%.

Here's the year by year rate since I started:

2010: 14/24

2011: 17/24

2012: 18/24

2013: 18/24

2014: 22/24

2015: 20/24

As weird as this season has been, I wouldn't be surprised if The FAC reverted back to an 18/24 correct prediction rate on Sunday night.

FOLLOW MTFB/FAC ON TWITTER @Gort2 FOR LIVE OSCAR UPDATES AND VARIOUS COMMENTARY ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

FINAL(?) OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

Here are links to some of the best in the Oscar prognostication business and their final picks for what will happen on Sunday night.  I'll up date these predictions as a standalone post through the weekend...so keep checking back for the latest links.

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention:

http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/oscar-predictions-winners-1201710084/

Pete Hammond/Deadline.com:

http://deadline.com/2016/02/oscars-2016-winners-predictions-academy-awards-handicap-1201701700/


Dave Karger/Fandango:

http://www.fandango.com/features/winning-your-2016-oscar-pool/


Gurus of Gold/Movie City News:

http://moviecitynews.com/2016/02/gurus-o-gold-our-best-guess-our-final-guess/


Check back here at MTFB/FAC for Oscar prediction updates from the experts through the weekend and a first look at Oscar results in Monday's post.

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

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The FAC's First Look After The PGA / More on Son of Saul / Todd Haynes Talks Carol and More...

Good Thursday Everyone...


THE FAC'S FIRST LOOK AFTER THE PGA

We asked on Monday if last weekend's Producers Guild win by Adam McKay's The Big Short had changed the Best Picture Oscar race and that answer is yes...but...perhaps not as much as I would have thought.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire

Some of these experts have not yet updated their predictions.  That data has been discounted.

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

Here's The FAC for Oscar wins in eight major categories:


BEST PICTURE

1) The Big Short
2) Spotlight
3) The Revenant
4) Mad Max: Fury Road
5) The Martian
6) Room
7) Bridge of Spies
8) Brooklyn

Comment: The Big Short and Spotlight are actually tied in the FAC numbers but the Short edges in front due to more #1 votes.  SO, The FAC says it's close.  Check the Gold Derby link below and you'll see that a broader segment of Oscar experts agree that the contest is still tight.  That all could change over the next two weekends with The Screen Actors Guild Awards and then The Directors Guild.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Alejandro Inarittu/The Revenant
2) Adam McKay/The Big Short
3) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight
4) George Miller/Mad Max: fury Road
5) Lenny Abrahamson/Room

BEST ACTRESS

1) Brie Larson/Room
2) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn
3) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years
4) Cate Blanchett/Carol
5) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy

BEST ACTOR

1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant
2) Bryan Cranston/Trumbo
3) Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs
4) Matt Damon/The Martian
5) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl
2) Rooney Mara/Carol
3) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs
4) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight
5) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Sylvester Stallone/Creed
2) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight
3) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies
4) Christian Bale/The Big Short
5) Tom Hardy/The Revenant

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Big Short
2) Room
3) Carol
4) Brooklyn
5) The Martian


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Spotlight
2) Inside Out
3) Straight outta Compton
4) Bridge of Spies
5) Ex Machina


Comments:  The closest category: Best Director.  Unanimous choices: DiCaprio, Vikander, and the screenplays for both The Big Short and Spotlight.  Stallone is not a unanimous choice but he's close. The Best Actress race seems a little closer than I would have thought.

Meanwhile, the Gold Derby experts say that Spotlight still has a small edge over The Big Short but it's tight:

http://www.goldderby.com/odds/experts/416/

MORE ON SON OF SAUL

Interviews and profiles of director Laszlo Nemes and Son of Saul:

The Atlantic:

http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2016/01/son-of-saul-holocaust-films/424491/

The New York Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/22/movies/laszlo-nemes-narrates-a-scene-from-son-of-saul.html


Eat Drink Films:

http://eatdrinkfilms.com/2016/01/21/son-of-saul-interview/




TODD HAYNES TALKS CAROL AND MORE

Director/writer Todd Haynes in a conversation about Carol and his career from The Playlist:


http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-1-hour-44-minute-conversation-with-todd-haynes-covering-his-career-inspiration-and-carol-20160121



That'll do it for this Thursday.  More to come on Monday...

The Film Stage Hot 100 / Shining on Spotlight / New Trailer for Son of Saul

Good Thursday Friends...here's what's happening in the film world as it relates to the Telluride FIlm Festival...


THE FILM STAGE'S 100 MOST ANTICIPATED FILMS OF 2016

Much like The Playlist's list in my last post, today I'm looking at a "most anticipated" film list for the new year from The Film Stage.  Among those 100 films are 20 that have, at first blush, some Telluride potential.  Some overlap with the list from The Playlist, some don't:

#98 Passengers
#95 HHHH
#85 Wilson
#79 The Secret Scripture
#75 The Commune
#72 Comancheria
#71 The Light Between Oceans
#70 A Hologram for the King
#67 War Machine
#53 The Beautiful Days of Aranjuez
#51 Neruda
#45 Family Photos
#44 Queen of Katme
#41 Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
#32 It's Just the End f the World
#19 American Honey
#14 Salt and Fire
#9 The Salesman
#6 The Unknown Girl
#3 The Lost City of Z

The complete list from The Film Stage is here:

http://thefilmstage.com/features/our-100-most-anticipated-films-of-2016/



SHINING ON SPOTLIGHT

MTFB continues to focus on the TFF #42 films that are making their mark as we move to the end game of the Oscar season including six time Oscar nominee, Tom McCarthy's Spotlight.  Included here are interviews with McCarthy and a profile about the origins of the film:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggeCcZem5zM&feature=youtu.be


http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/interview-tom-mccarthy-talks-spotlight-state-of-journalism-the-wire-more-20151106


http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/features/how-dreamworks-derailed-spotlight-no-836366


NEW TRAILER FOR SON OF SAUL

Best Foreign Language Film nominee Son of Saul also continues to be in the forefront this Oscar season.  I have included stories that accompanied the release of a new trailer for the film (trailer included below) and interviews with writer/director Laszlo Nemes.

Son of Saul trailer via YouTube

http://www.firstshowing.net/2016/new-trailer-for-oscar-nominated-hungarian-masterpiece-son-of-saul/


http://www.slashfilm.com/son-of-saul-trailer-oscars/


http://cultmontreal.com/2016/01/son-of-saul-laszlo-nemes/


http://thefilmstage.com/features/son-of-saul-director-laszlo-nemes-on-capturing-a-portait-of-hell-and-the-spiritual-experience-of-cannes/


That's your MTFB for Thursday.  More to come on Monday...including The FAC's first pass at what films/actors are out front for Oscar in six major categories.  Also, a look at this weekend's winners announcement from the Producers Guild of America.

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

And Now...On with the Show (The Oscar Show, that is)... / Peering into the Future / Reaching Back to TFF #37...For Some Litigation

Welcome to the new week...Oscar's First Act has concluded with last Thursday's announcement of the nominees.  Now we move to Act Two which culminates on Feb. 28th.  This period of weeks between Oscar nomination announcement and the actual awards is always a sort pf odd limbo-esque time.  The race that has been in some motion, really since the conclusion of Labor Day weekend and Telluride's fest continues but in a much different fashion.

What has been a very broad affair including many, many films is now truncated to the nominees and  as a couple of the Big Time Oscar Pundits have said since Thursday, the campaigning continues but becomes less obvious and noisy.

At the same time, this space begins to turn, a least a little bit, to its post-Oscar (and primary purpose) which is the attempt to discern some of the films that might be on the program for TFF #43.

Today's post straddles the duality of Oscar and TFF prognostication and that's where we'll be for the next five and a half weeks...

We start with...


AND NOW...ON WITH THE SHOW (THE OSCAR SHOW, THAT IS)...

So here we are 96 hours, give or take, removed from the revealing of Oscar nominations.  Ridley Scott isn't nominated.  No actors of color made it into any of the 20 acting slots.  Lenny Abrahamson IS nominated.  These are among the most discussed topics for Oscar observers these past few days.  But, of course, the other question is...who/what is going to win in a few weeks?

Not surprisingly, there's non shortage of Oscarologists with their early predictions.  I have linked Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention, Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter, Sasha Stone/Awards Daily and (collectively) The Gurus of Gold from Movie City News and their early line on winners below.

Some observations from looking at all of their predictions:

Spotlight remains the favorite to win Best Picture but there is some serious thought that The Big Short, The Revenant and Mad Max:Fury Road are still playing.  Most believe that The Martian, Room, Bridge of Spies and Brooklyn are not likely Best Picture winners.

Prohibitive favorites seem to be (even this far out from the actual awards):

Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant for Best Actor
Brie Larson/Room for Best Actress
Sylvester Stallone/Creed for Best Supporting Actor
Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer/Spotlight for Original Screenplay
Adam McKay and Charles Randolph/The Big Short for Best Original Screenplay
Amy for Best Documentary
Son of Saul for Best Foreign Language Film
Inside Out for Best Animated Feature


These eight picks seem pretty solid already.  Some others seem very likely (Mad Max:Fury Road looks good for Film Editing and Production Design for example) but aren't what I would call locks. Of course, some categories seem very, very competitive: Original Score and Song for example.

The FAC will be periodically updating Oscar predictions as we move through these next few weeks. Check back here.  You might remember that, last year, The FAC hit 20 of 24 categories on Oscar night and 22 of 24 in 2014.

Here are your links to The Gurus, Tapley, Feinberg and Stone:

http://moviecitynews.com/2016/01/gurus-o-gold-nomination-day-part-1-of-2/

http://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/oscar-predictions-oscars-academy-awards-1201600870/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/academy-awards-11416/

http://www.awardsdaily.com/


PEERING INTO THE FUTURE

One of the ways I get the ball rolling in earnestness about Telluride film speculation is to analyze the first of the year "Most Anticipated" film lists from a variety of outlets and look for titles that seem T-ride possible.  Today. I begin that process by looking at The Playlist's list of 100 films they're most excited about.  Among the titles they include are 20 that seem like they might SHOW up on Labor Day weekend.  Here they are with their position on The Playlist list (and an occasional comment):

#96 A United Kingdom
#95 True Crimes
#93 Trespass Against Us
#92 The Zookeeper's Wife
#89 Queen of Katme
#83 The Founder (the story of Ray Kroc and the development of McDonalds starring Michael Keaton)...It's high on my Telluride request list...
#74 Neruda
#62 The Promise
#61 Gold
#60 Comancheria
#51 HHHH
#45 Salt and Fire (Herzog returns to Telluride?)
#38 Personnel Shopper
#28 Passengers (this really isn't all that likely... save for the fact that its Morten Tyldum's directorial follow-up to The Imitation Game).
#23 American Honey
#19 The Unknown Girl
#18 It's Only the End of the World
#9 The Lost City of Z
#5 The Salesman (the latest from Iranian genius Asghar Farhadi.  After both A Separation and The Past playing Telluride, you have to believe that this is very likely.  It might start out at the #1 spot when I actually begin putting together a Telluride #43 list in June).
#3 War Machine (this lands on the list because it's in the hands of Netflix which made its debut at Telluride last year with Beasts of No Nation and Winter on Fire.  I think there's a decent shot that they'll be back).

So there are 20 films from The Playlist list.  If my past record at extrapolating from The Playlist is any indicator we can expect that five will make the Telluride lineup.  Last year's parsing of The Playlist 100 included these films that I wrote could play T-ride: Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Suffragette, Spotlight and Carol.  In 2014, with the same circumstances, I mentioned: Leviathan, Mr. Turner, Two Days One Night, Birdman and Foxcatcher.

Here's the link to The Playlist's complete hot 100 FOR 2016:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-100-most-anticipated-films-of-2016-20160104


Thursday, I'll take a look at The Film Stage's list of  100 2016 films.


REACHING BACK TO TFF #37...FOR SOME LITIGATION

Remember Tabloid?  Errol Morris' look at one time beauty queen Joyce McKinney?  It was one of my favorite films of TFF #37(2010).

Now, it looks like we may hear about it again some five years later as the subject of the documentary, Ms. McKinney has decided to sue Morris.

Her claim is that she was lied to and disparaged in the film.  Check out the story from The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr-esq/errol-morris-heads-trial-irate-854823


That's a wrap for Monday...more to come on Thursday...


Contact me at:

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mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

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Updates on Oscar from The FAC: Screenplays and More / Producers Guild Nominations Announced

Good Thursday morning...Oscar nomination voting ends tomorrow and the nominations will be announced one week from today...buckle your seat belts...it's going to be bumpy ride...


UPDATES ON OSCAR FROM THE FAC: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

Almost everyone I know in the professional Oscar Pundit Universe has commented repeatedly about the fluidity and unpredictability of the Oscar season to date.  That has not diminished over the past three weeks since I last posted the Screenplay categories.  It has made it a fun season and suggests that we're going to see some surprises a week from today.  Cool.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

You may have noticed the absence of Peter Knegt from Indiewire.  He has left that website and consequently, it appears that Indiewire has doubled up on Anne Thompson's predictions.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Room (1)
2) The Big Short (5)
3) The Martian (3)
4) Steve Jobs (2)
5) Carol (6)

6) Brooklyn (4)
7) Anomalisa (7)
8) The Revenant (8)
9) Trumbo (9)
10) Creed (10)

Hot: The Big Short
Not: Steve Jobs and Brooklyn

Comment: The Big Short solidifies its position in the category.  The numbers suggest that the only real threats below the top five are Brooklyn and The Revenant.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) The Hateful Eight (3)
4) Bridge of Spies (4)
5) Ex Machina (5)

6) Straight Outta Compton (8)
7) Sicario (10)
8) Joy (6)
9) Trainwreck (7)
10) Youth (9)

Hot: Compton and Sicario
Not: Joy and Trainwreck

Comment:  Like Adapted Screenplays, the top ten remained consistent but there was good deal of jostling below the top five.


BEST FILM EDITING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road (3)chances.
2) Spotlight (2)
3) The Martian (6)
4) The Big Short (NR)
5) The Revenant (1)

6) Bridge of Spies (4)
7) Star Wars; The Force Awakens (NR)
8) Steve Jobs (5)
9) Sicario (8)
10) Creed (NR)

Hot: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, The Big Short, Creed
Not: Joy, Jurassic World and The Hateful Eight (which all dropped out of the top ten), Bridge of Spies and Steve Jobs.

Comment:  Lots of movement here and perhaps more to come as the American Cinema Editors guild nominations dropped Tuesday and did not include Spotlight.  That could mean to Oscar nomination for the Tom McCarthy film in that category and that is very often a crucial indicator of a film's Best Picture chances.  Sicario may be the most likely film to benefit from a Spotlight snub in the editing category.

I'll actually likely run the editing numbers again next week before the nominations are announced on Thursday.


Here's the rundown of "Eddie" nominees from the A.C.E. from The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/behind-screen/2016-ace-eddie-award-nominations-851748

BEST  CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Revenant (1)
2) Mad Max: Fury Road (3)
3) Sicario (2)
4) The Hateful Eight (6)
5) Carol (4)

6) The Martian (7)
7) Bridge of Spies (5)
8) The Danish Girl (9)
9) Son of Saul (10)
10) Creed (NR)

Hot: The Hateful Eight, Creed
Not: Bridge of Spies and In the Heart of the Sea

Comment:  Yesterday's guild announcement from the American Society of Cinematographers may well indicate that Bridge is better positioned and Hateful weaker than their respective decline and surge would indicate.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Son of Saul (1)
2) Mustang (3)
3) Labyrinth of Lies (2)
4) A War (NR)
5) Viva (7)

6) Theeb (NR)
7) A New Testament (NR)
8) Embrace of the Serpent (NR)
9) The Fencer (NR)

Comment: Since the last FAC post concerning this category, the release of the Academy's short list has turned the category topsy-turvy.  Son of Saul remains the big favorite, although Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention reports that "Saul" was one of the films added to semi-final list by the FLF committee rather than by the vote of the branch members which may indicate some serious weakness in its position.


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

1) Amy (1)
2) The Look of Silence (2)
3) Cartel Land (10)
4) Going Clear (3)
5) He Named Me Malala (7)

6) Where Are You Miss Simone? (9)
7) Listen to Me Marlon (8)
8) Where to Invade Next (6)
9) Best of Enemies (4)
10) The Hunting Ground (5)

Hot: Cartel Land, Malala, Miss Simone
Not: Where to Invade, Enemies and Hunting Ground

Comment: Really, after the first two docs, the category is still wide open...all the way down to the 11th place film: Winter on Fire.



PRODUCERS GUILD ANNOUNCES NOMINEES

The Producers Guild of America announced its list of nominees this week and Telluride films making the feature film cut included only Spotlight.  Carol, Room, Beats of No Nation where all snubbed.  Anomalisa was nominated for Best Animated Feature and The Look of Silence added a Best Doc nomination.

Coverage is here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/2016-producers-guild-film-nominations-852228

http://www.thewrap.com/producers-guild-nominates-ex-machina-sicario-and-straight-outta-compton-but-not-star-wars/




That's Thursday...more on Monday included more FAC Oscar updated categories.

 Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

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Four More Oscar Tech Categories and The FAC / Sasha and Kris are Saying... / "Spotlight" Wins NSFC

Good First Monday of 2016 Everyone...  back to the grind... real and imagined...


FOUR MORE OSCAR TECH CATEGORIES AND THE FAC

As we edge ever closer to Oscar nomination morning, the Film Awards Clearinghouse takes a look at the positioning of the films in the only categories that I haven't enumerated as yet: Makeup/Hair, Visual Effects, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) Black Mass
3) The Revenant

4) Mr. Holmes
5) The 100 Year Old Man...
6) Concussion
7) Legend


Comment:  The only possible Telluride connected nominee from the four categories that the blog examines today as "Black Mass" has a chance to be nominated here.


VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Star Wars; The Force Awakens
2) The Martian
3) Mad Max; Fury Road
4) The Walk
5) Jurassic World

6) Transformers: Age of Ultron
7) Ex Machina
8) The Revenant
9) Ant Man
10) Tomorrowland

Comment;  The top three films look solid for a nomination here.  After them, it's up for grabs for the last two spots.

SOUND MIXING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3) The Martian
4) The Revenant
5) The Hateful Eight

6) Sicario
7) Spectre
8) Jurassic World
9) Straight Outta Compton
10) Creed


SOUND EDITING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) The Martian
3) The Revanant
4) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
5) The Hateful Eight

6) Jurassic World
7) Spectre
8) Inside Out
9) Sicario
10) In the Heart of the Sea

Comment:The top three in Mixing and the top four in Editing seem to be solid.  Oft times a musical film will nose its way into one or both of these categories, especially Mixing.  "Compton" and "Love and Mercy" might sneak in, but even that appears unlikely.


Oscar nomination announcement day is now just 10 days away and as I post the next three MTFB/FACs, I'll update the categories so that we'll have an up to date picture as we arrive at Nomination morning on Jan. 14.


I'll update  these categories on Thursday: Screenplays, Cinematography, Editing, Documentary and Foreign Language Film.



SASHA AND KRIS ARE SAYING...



Last Thursday I looked specifically at the latest Oscar predictions from The Hollywood Reporter's Oscar ace Scott Feinberg to see how Telluride films would pan out if he's 100% correct.  Today I'm posting the same process to Kristopher Tapley of Variety's InContention and Sasha Stone of Awards Daily.  Here are their latest picks for each T-ride film:

From Tapley:

"Spotlight" (7): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Keaton), Supporting Actress (McAdams), Original Screenplay, Editing and Score.

"Carol" (5) Best Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Costumes.

"Steve Jobs" (4) Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Score

"Room" (3) Best Picture, Actress, Adapted Screenplay

"Black Mass" (2) Best Actor, Makeup/Hair

Singles for:

"45 Years" Best Actress
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"Beasts of No Nation" Best Supporting Actor
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film
"The Look of Silence" (TFF #41) Best Documentary

T-ride total = 26 for TFF #42 (27 if you count the TFF #41 "Look of Silence")


From Stone:

"Carol" (8) Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Score.

"Spotlight" (5) Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Editing, Score

"Room" (4) Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay

"Steve Jobs" (3) Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay

Singles for:

"Beasts of No Nation" Supporting Actor
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film
"He Named Me Malala" Best Documentary
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"The Look of Silence" Best Documentary (TFF #41)

T-ride total from Stone: 25 (with a 26th if you count TFF #41's "Look of Silence")

Here's the material I blogged about from Feinberg last Thursday:

 If Feinberg is right, T-ride films are nominated as follows:

"Carol" (7): Best Film, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Costume, Cinematography and Score.
"Spotlight" (6):  Best Film, Direction, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score and Film Editing.
"Room" (4): Best Film, Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Production Design
"Steve Jobs" (3): Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay.

All other films from Telluride would be single nominated films:

"45 Years" Best Actress
"Beasts of No Nation" Best Supporting Actor
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film

And from TFF #41:

"The Look of Silence" Best Documentary
"99 Homes" Best Supporting Actor.


Telluride totals would be 27 nominations (with two of those from TFF 2014).


If you combine all three of these Oscar pundits to look for the maximum Telluride bang for the buck you could see "Carol" with 10 nominations, "Spotlight" with seven (eight, if it gets three acting nominations), "Room" with five, "Steve Jobs" with four, "Black Mass" with two and TFF #41 with an additional six nominations for one offs for "Beasts", "Saul", "Viva", "45 Years", Anomalisa and "Malala" and an additional two nominations dating back to TFF #41 films.



"SPOTLIGHT" WINS NSFC

Tom McCarthy's "Spotlight" was named Best Picture of the year by the National Society of Film Critics yesterday.  Other Telluride-centric films that were winners or runners-up yesterday in the NSFC voting were:

Best Picture 1st RU: "Carol"
Best Director: Todd Haynes/ "Carol", 1st RU: Tom McCarthy/"Spotlight"
Best Actor 1st RU: Geza Rorhig/"Son of Saul", 2nd RU: Tom Courtenay/"45 Years"
Best Actress: Charlotte Rampling/"45 Years"
Best Supporting Actor: Michael Shannon/"99 Homes" (TFF #41)
Best Supporting Actress; 2nd RU Kate Winslet/"Steve Jobs"
Best Screenplay: "Spotlight", 1st RU: "Anomalisa"
Best Cinematography: "Carol"
Best Non-Fiction Film: 2nd RU "Seymour: An Introduction" (TFF #41)

Full coverage f the NSFC results are here:

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/national-society-of-film-critics-awards-2016-full-list-1201670781/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/criticwire/national-society-of-film-critics-awards-2015-20160103

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/national-society-of-film-critics-gives-best-picture-to-oscar-frontrunner-spotlight-20160103

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/national-society-film-critics-2016-851756


That's all for Monday.  More updated Oscar categories will be here on Thursday...


  Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to


Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

New Oscar Categories Get The FAC Treatment / Like I Said on Monday...Haneke / Oscar Matters: The Latest Fienberg Forecast

Good Thursday film fans...

Oscar nomination morning is a minuscule two weeks away...the anticipation mounts!

NEW OSCAR CATEGORIES GET THE FAC TREATMENT

As we get closer to the announcement of Oscar nominations, The FAC takes its first look at the animated feature race and a number of technical categories.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Inside Out
2) Anomalisa
3) Shaun the Sheep
4) The Good Dinosaur
5) The Peanuts Movie

6) Kahlil Gibron's The Prophet
7) Minions
8) When Marnie Was There
9) Boy and the World
10) Home

Comment:  "Inside Out" and "Anomalisa" are locks.  It'll be interesting to see if the category goes a to five nominees all of which will be honored to be nominated in a year where "Inside Out" has the Oscar in a death grip.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Danish Girl
2) Carol
3) Bridge of Spies
4) Mad Max: Fury Road
5) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

6) Cinderella
7) The Martian
8) Brooklyn
9) The Hateful Eight
10) The Revenant

Comment:  A very, very competitive category.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Hateful Eight
2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3) Carol
4) The Danish Girl
5) Bridge of Spies

6) Spotlight
7) Inside Out
8) Steve Jobs
9) Sicario
10) Mad Max: Fury Road

Comment: The films' scores listed in the 4-7 positions are probably in a real fight for the last two spots in the category.


BEST SONG

1) 'Til It Happens to You/The Hunting Ground
2) See You Again/Furious 7
3) Simple Song #3/Youth
4) Love Me Like You Do/50 Shades of Grey
5) Writing's on the Wall/Spectre

6) Earned It/50 Shades of Grey
7) So Long/Concussion
8) Flashlight/Pitch Perfect 2
9) Feels Like Summer/Shaun the Sheep
10) I'll See You in My Dreams/I'll See You in My Dreams (tie)
10) Cold One/Rikki and the Flash

Comment: Try on these phrases...Oscar nominees "50 Shades of Grey" and/or "Furious 7".  Looks like it could really happen.  Maybe twice for "50 Shades".


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Carol
2) The Danish Girl
3) Cinderella
4) Brooklyn
5) Mad Max: Fury Road

6) The Hateful Eight
7) The Revenant
8) The Crimson Peak
9) Suffragette
10) Trumbo

Comment: The top four spots seem relatively certain with a big scrum for the fifth nomination.

If The FAC is 100% accurate, Telluride films in these categories will earn fur nominations with another three possibilities.


LIKE I SAID ON MONDAY...HANEKE

Michael Haneke and Isabelle Huppert at Cannes for "Amour" in 2012 (photo from Sipa Press/Rex Shutterstock and The Guardian)

Last Monday's post included a segment entitled "Ten Films that Could Be Telluride Bound".  Included on that list was one film without a title and that was the percolating Michael Haneke project.  Now, almost like magic, within the last couple of days, comes details of the new film including a title: " Happy End".

Considering the timing, I would expect that the completed film would be a likely entrant for Cannes in 2017 and, consequently, TFF #44.  Here is coverage from The Guardian, Film Stage and The Playlist:

http://www.theguardian.com/film/2015/dec/30/michael-haneke-to-reunite-with-isabelle-huppert-for-calais-set-drama

http://thefilmstage.com/news/michael-haneke-reveals-next-film-happy-end-starring-isabelle-huppert-and-jean-louis-trintignant/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/michael-haneke-reteams-with-amour-duo-isabelle-huppert-jean-louis-trintignant-for-refugee-film-happy-end-20151230



OSCAR MATTERS: LATEST FEINBERG FORECAST

The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg has just updated his latest Oscar predictions.  The nominations announcement is now just two weeks away.  You can look at Scott's whole list here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/academy-awards-122915/

If Feinberg is right, T-ride films are nominated as follows:

"Carol" (7): Best Film, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Costume, Cinematography and Score.
"Spotlight" (6):  Best Film, Direction, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score and Film Editing.
"Room" (4): Best Film, Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Production Design
"Steve Jobs" (3): Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay.

All other films from Telluride would be single nominated films:

"45 Years" Best Actress
"Beasts of No Nation" Best Supporting Actor
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film
 
And from TFF #41:

"The Look of Silence" Best Documentary
"99 Homes" Best Supporting Actor.


Telluride totals would be 27 nominations (with two of those from TFF 2014).


More to come on Monday...HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to


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