Thursday, February 25, 2016

The (Probably) Final Film Awards Clearinghouse Oscar Predictions / Oscar Odds and Ends / Final (?) Oscar Predictions from the Experts

Good morning America; how are you?


Barring something really unusal happening between now and Sunday night, this is the best assessment that The FAC has about all 24 Oscar categories and what is likely to be announced by The Academy as the Best of film from 2015.

As always...

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

Live Action Short:
Winner: Shok
Spoiler(s) Day One, Stutterer or Ave Maria 

Documentary Short Subject:
Winner: Claude Lanzman: Spectres of The Shoah
Spoiler(s): Either Body Team 12 or Chau, Beyond the Lines

Animated Short:
Winner: World of Tomorrow
Spoiler(s): Sanjay's Super Team or Bear Story

Sound Editing:
Winner: The Revenant
Spoiler: Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Mixing:
Winner: The Revenant
Spoiler: Mad Max: Fury Road

Visual Effects:
Winner: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Spoilers: The Revenant or Mad Max: Fury Road

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Spoiler: The Revenant

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Spoiler: Carol

Production Design:
Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Spoiler: The Revenant

Original Song:
Winner: Til It Happens to You/The Hunting Ground
Spoiler: Writings on the Wall/Spectre

Original Score:
Winner: The Hateful Eight
Spoiler: Star Wars; The Force Awakens

Winner: The Revenant
Spoiler: Mad Max; Fury Road

Film Editing:
Winner:Mad Max: Fury Road
Spoiler: The Big Short

Documentary Feature:
Winner: Amy
Spoiler: Cartel Land

Animated Feature:
Winner: Inside Out
Spoiler: Anomalisa

Foreign Language Feature:
Winner: Son of Saul
Spoiler: Mustang

Original Screenplay:
Winner: Spotlight
Spoiler: Inside Out

Adapted Screenplay:
Winner: The Big Short
Spoiler: Room

Supporting Actor:
Winner: Sylvester Stallone/Creed
Spolier(s): Christian Bale/The Big Short or Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies

Supporting Actress:
Winner: Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl
Spoiler: Rooney Mara/Carol

Lead Actor:
Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant
Spoiler: Bryan Cranston/Trumbo

Lead Actress:
Winner: Brie Larson/Room
Spoiler: Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn

Winner: Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant
Spoiler: Adam McKay/The Big Short

Best Picture:
Winner: The Revenant
Spoiler(s): Either Spotlight or The Big Short


The likeliest categories for surprises (and the ones that will probably determine your office pool or your Gold Derby or Awards Daily Oscar contests) are: the three shorts categories, sound editing and mixing, production design, costumes, film editing, and Best Picture.

If The FAC is 100% accurate...

The night's big winner, and I do mean BIG,  will Alejandro Inarritu's The Revenant, which The FAC is currently predicting as the winner of six Oscars: Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Cinematography, Direction, Lead Actor and Best Picture.  

The ONLY other film that is predicted for multiple Oscars is Mad Max: Fury Road with four: Best Film Editing, Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

All other winners look like they will be taking home single statues.

TFF #42 films will account for three Oscars for Spotlight's original screenplay, Son of Saul as Foreign Language Film and Brie Larson winning Best Actress for Room.  Telluride could have films that play the spoiler in six other categories with the most likely spoilers being Sanjay's Super Team as Animated Short and Spotlight as Best Picture.

The FAC historical accuracy record is 76%.  I've been crunching numbers since the 2010 Oscars but The FAC has gotten better over time.  The accuracy rate for the past two years has been 88%.

Here's the year by year rate since I started:

2010: 14/24
2011: 17/24
2012: 18/24
2013: 18/24
2014: 22/24
2015: 20/24

As weird as this season has been, I wouldn't be surprised if The FAC reverted back to an 18/24 correct prediction rate on Sunday night.



Here are links to some of the best in the Oscar prognostication business and their final picks for what will happen on Sunday night.  I'll up date these predictions as a standalone post through the keep checking back for the latest links.

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention:

Pete Hammond/

Dave Karger/Fandango:

Gurus of Gold/Movie City News:

Check back here at MTFB/FAC for Oscar prediction updates from the experts through the weekend and a first look at Oscar results in Monday's post.

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