THE LATEST FAC FOR MAJOR OSCAR CATEGORIES
For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire
TFF #42 films are in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) The Big Short (1)
2) The Revenant (3)
3) Spotlight (2)
4) Mad Max: Fury Road (4)
5) The Martian (5)
6) Room (6)
7) Bridge of Spies (7)
8) Brooklyn (8)
Comment: The Revenant's and Alejandro Inarritu's
DGA win has shuffled the top of the deck slightly. Spotlight slips from
#2 to #3 and The Revenant moves up to that #2 spot. The top three films
are bunched within a two point window in The FAC metric so the Best Picture
race is still wide, wide open.
It will interesting to see if last night's BAFTA
announcement changes the field further.
BEST DIRECTOR
1) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (1)
2) Adam McKay/The Big Short (2)
3) George Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road (4)
4) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (3)
5)
Lenny Abrahamson/Room (5)
Comment: McCarthy and Miller trade places signalling a weakening among The FAC pundits in their feeling that Spotlight is waning, however slightly, in the Best Picture race.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Brie Larson/Room (1)
2) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (2)
3) Cate Blanchett/Carol (4)
4) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (3)
5) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy
Comment: Larson has solidified her hold on the lead here. Slight shift below her as Blanchett and Rampling switch the #3 and #4 positions.
BEST ACTOR
1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (1)
2) Bryan Cranston/Trumbo
3) Michael Fassbender /Steve Jobs (3)
4) Matt Damon/The Martian (4)
5) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (5)
Comment: It's Leo all the way here. The category remains static from the last FAC post.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)
2) Rooney Mara/Carol (2)
3) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)
4) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (4)
5) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (5)
Comment: Another category that's frozen with these nominees in the same positions as the last FAC. Vikander is away out front.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Sylvester Stallone/Creed (1)
2) Christian Bale/The Big Short (4)
3) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (2)
4) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (3)
5) Tom Hardy/The Revenant (5)
Comment: Stallone is the odds on favorite. Bale's ascendance could signal a rise in The Big Short's fortunes and the subsequent drop for Mark Ruffalo might be another signal that Spotlight might be waning.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) The Big Short (1)
2) Room (2)
3) The Martian (5)
4) Carol (3)
5) Brooklyn (4)
Comment: Last weekend's WGA win for The Big Short only solidifies its status as the very likely winner for this category on Oscar night.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) Ex Machina (3)
4) Straight Outta Compton (4)
5) Bridge of Spies (5)
Comment: Spotlight won the WGA and is the prohibitive favorite here.
BAFTA RESULTS AND A FEW THOUGHTS
Alejandro Inarritu's western revenge/survival dram The Revenant won the British version of the Oscar last night for Best Picture. Inarritu also won as did star Leonardo DiCaprio. The film also won honors for cinematography (Emmanuel Lubezki also won the American Society of Cinematographers Award for Best Cinematography last night...making him likely to win an unprecedented third straight Oscar) and Best Sound.
In addition to DiCaprio, Brie Larson won Best Actress for Room, Kate Winslet was named Best Supporting Actress for Steve Jobs and Mark Rylance as Best Supporting Actor for Bridge of Spies.
Other winners last night included Screenplay wins for Spotlight and The Big Short. Mad Max; Fury Road won four tech awards for editing, costumes, makeup and production design.
Complete results are here:
The Revenant's win on top of its win with the DGA most likely signals that it is the front runner for the Best Picture Oscar in less than two weeks time. That said, analysis from Oscar pros Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter and Kristopher Tapley of Variety's InContention say.."not so fast".
Both analysts suggest that The Revenant is the likely favorite but they also point out that this season has been anything but predictable and that the BAFTA last year rewarded Richard Linklater's Boyhood. So, they both say, the race may still not be over andwe could still have a surprise or two on Feb. 28.
Check out their analysis here:
http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/the-revenant-key-bafta-awards-analysis-1201706167/
One final note: Telluride films won Best Actress-Brie Larson/Room, Best Supporting Actress-Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs, Original Screenplay-Spotlight and Non-English Language Film-Wild Tales.
WGA REWARDS SPOTLIGHT AND THE BIG SHORT
WGA REWARDS SPOTLIGHT AND THE BIG SHORT
The Writers Guild of America named their award winners for 2015 on Saturday with TFF #42 film Spotlight named Best Original Screenplay and The Big Short winning Best Adapted Screenplay. Those wins are expected to be repeated on Oscar night in a couple of weeks.
I have linked WGA coverage here:
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