Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
In the wake of The Revenant's wins at last weekend's BAFTA awards, the expert Oscar predictors that are surveyed by Gold Derby have shifted their view and have now made Alejandro Inarritu's The Revenant as a substantial favorite.
16 over the 25 experts surveyed by the Gold derby crew are currently picking The Revenant putting it over the 50% mark and giving it (according to Gold Derby) odds of 5/6 to win. Spotlight sits at second with 6 experts still picking it. Its odds are listed at 10/3. The only other film that earned any #1 votes is The Big Short.
Check the complete Gold Derby Best Picture picture here:
Jazz Tangcay, writing for Awards Daily takes in depth look at the work of cinematographer Ed Lachman who is nominated for Best Cinematography for Todd Haynes Carol. Lachman talks at length about Carol and the how and why about a number of shots from the film. The link is here:
Good Monday everyone...welcome to another post on Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse.
THE LATEST FAC FOR MAJOR OSCAR CATEGORIES
For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire
TFF #42 films are inBold.
BEST PICTURE
1) The Big Short (1)
2) The Revenant (3)
3) Spotlight (2)
4) Mad Max: Fury Road (4)
5) The Martian (5)
6) Room (6)
7) Bridge of Spies (7)
8) Brooklyn (8)
Comment: The Revenant's and Alejandro Inarritu's
DGA win has shuffled the top of the deck slightly. Spotlight slips from
#2 to #3 and The Revenant moves up to that #2 spot. The top three films
are bunched within a two point window in The FAC metric so the Best Picture
race is still wide, wide open.
It will interesting to see if last night's BAFTA
announcement changes the field further.
BEST DIRECTOR
1) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (1)
2) Adam McKay/The Big Short (2)
3) George Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road (4)
4) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (3)
5)
Lenny Abrahamson/Room (5)
Comment: McCarthy and Miller trade places signalling a weakening among The FAC pundits in their feeling that Spotlight is waning, however slightly, in the Best Picture race.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Brie Larson/Room (1)
2) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (2)
3) Cate Blanchett/Carol (4)
4) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (3)
5) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy
Comment: Larson has solidified her hold on the lead here. Slight shift below her as Blanchett and Rampling switch the #3 and #4 positions.
BEST ACTOR
1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (1)
2) Bryan Cranston/Trumbo
3) Michael Fassbender /Steve Jobs (3)
4) Matt Damon/The Martian (4)
5) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (5)
Comment: It's Leo all the way here. The category remains static from the last FAC post.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)
2) Rooney Mara/Carol (2)
3) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)
4) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (4)
5) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (5)
Comment: Another category that's frozen with these nominees in the same positions as the last FAC. Vikander is away out front.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Sylvester Stallone/Creed (1)
2) Christian Bale/The Big Short (4)
3) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (2)
4) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (3)
5) Tom Hardy/The Revenant (5)
Comment: Stallone is the odds on favorite. Bale's ascendance could signal a rise in The Big Short's fortunes and the subsequent drop for Mark Ruffalo might be another signal that Spotlight might be waning.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) The Big Short (1)
2) Room (2)
3) The Martian (5)
4) Carol (3)
5) Brooklyn (4)
Comment: Last weekend's WGA win for The Big Short only solidifies its status as the very likely winner for this category on Oscar night.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) Ex Machina (3)
4) Straight Outta Compton (4)
5) Bridge of Spies (5)
Comment: Spotlight won the WGA and is the prohibitive favorite here.
BAFTA RESULTS AND A FEW THOUGHTS
Alejandro Inarritu's western revenge/survival dram The Revenant won the British version of the Oscar last night for Best Picture. Inarritu also won as did star Leonardo DiCaprio. The film also won honors for cinematography (Emmanuel Lubezki also won the American Society of Cinematographers Award for Best Cinematography last night...making him likely to win an unprecedented third straight Oscar) and Best Sound.
In addition to DiCaprio, Brie Larson won Best Actress for Room, Kate Winslet was named Best Supporting Actress for Steve Jobs and Mark Rylance as Best Supporting Actor for Bridge of Spies.
Other winners last night included Screenplay wins for Spotlight and The Big Short. Mad Max; Fury Road won four tech awards for editing, costumes, makeup and production design.
The Revenant's win on top of its win with the DGA most likely signals that it is the front runner for the Best Picture Oscar in less than two weeks time. That said, analysis from Oscar pros Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter and Kristopher Tapley of Variety's InContention say.."not so fast".
Both analysts suggest that The Revenant is the likely favorite but they also point out that this season has been anything but predictable and that the BAFTA last year rewarded Richard Linklater's Boyhood. So, they both say, the race may still not be over andwe could still have a surprise or two on Feb. 28.
One final note: Telluride films won Best Actress-Brie Larson/Room, Best Supporting Actress-Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs, Original Screenplay-Spotlight and Non-English Language Film-Wild Tales.
WGA REWARDS SPOTLIGHT AND THE BIG SHORT
The Writers Guild of America named their award winners for 2015 on Saturday with TFF #42 film Spotlight named Best Original Screenplay and The Big Short winning Best Adapted Screenplay. Those wins are expected to be repeated on Oscar night in a couple of weeks.
Welcome to Monday after a late Saturday night surprise...
THE BIG SHORT WINS BIG
It wasn't a total shocker late Saturday night when The Producers Guild of America named Adam McKay's The Big Short the winner of its Film of the Year Award but it's also what was not expected. I think most interested observers felt that Spotlight would win and follow that with a Best Picture Oscar win next month.
The Big Short along with Mad Max:Fury Road and The Revenant were all thought to be possibilities but, again, if the big collective Oscar experts sites are to be believed, most thought Spotlight would win.
The PGA is regarded by many as the best bellwether for the Big Win having matched exactly the last eight years (half and half actually for its tie two years ago between Gravity and eventual Oscar winner 12 Years a Slave). The PGA's voting process is very much like the Oscar's preferential ballot and it's hard to argue with eight years of predictive accuracy.
On a related note, I was going to run a new FAC analysis this morning for 6-8 major Oscar categories in today's post but with Saturday night's news, I've decided to wait and run that in Thursday's regular post to see what effect the PGA win will have. SO, if you were looking for that today, my apologies.
You'd be wise to bet that The Big Short will now become the favorite to win Best Picture.
Here's early analysis from Sasha Stone/Awards Daily, Kristopher Tapley/InContention and Dave McNary/Variety:
Looking at these articles, you'll find that The Big Short will likely be at the top of the next charts from The Gurus of Gold and Gold Derby (as well as The FAC) but everyone seems at least alittle cautious because the season has been anything but predictable. Chack back Thursday...
Here's the last Gold Derby and Gurus of Gold charts that were post nomination announcements and prior to Saturday's PGA announcement:
One of the films that I wish I had gotten to in Telluride last September was Marguerite. It's a story loosely based on the experience of American "singer" Florence Foster Jenkins. My brother caught a screening that weekend and really enjoyed it. The Cohen Media Group has released a trailer with English subtitles for the film . The film does not have a set U.S. release date at this point but has opened in much of Europe and is set to open in England on Mar. 18. Here's The Playlist story that covers the release of the subtitled trailer:
The Hollywood Reporter has posted an extensive profile of Best Actress Oscar favorite Brie Larson. Larson was in Telluride last Labor Day with Lenny Abrahamson's (also Oscar nominated for Best Director) Room.
Room was very well regarded at the end of TFF #42 as MTFB's People's Telluride ratings had the film at #1 with a 4.47 rating (out of a possible perfect score of five).
