Telluride's Oscar History (Some of it Anyway) / The Berlin Fest and Telluride / Tickets for Sale!

Good Monday all...

Hope you had a great weekend...

TELLURIDE'S OSCAR HISTORY (SOME PF IT ANYWAY)

I think there is sometimes a belief/narrative that the current run of Best Picture winners that have made their way through Telluride on their way to Oscar glory have indicated that the Telluride and Oscars connection is a very recent phenomenon.  Though the connection has expanded and become stronger in recent years (since 2008's Slumdog Millionaire landslide), the connection between TFF and Oscar Best Picture nominees goes way back to the very beginning of the festival and began to accelerate through the 90's and becoming a common occurrence beginning 16 years ago.

Here's what I mean.  Here are the Best Picture nominees year-by-year that played at Telluride. (*indicates a Best Picture winner):

1974: (Telluride's first year) The Conversation
1989: My Left Foot
1992: The Crying Game
1993: The Piano
1996: Secrets and Lies
2000: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
2003: Lost in Translation
2004: Finding Neverland
2005: Brokeback Mountain, Capote
2006: Babel
2007: Juno, There Will Be Blood (selected scenes)
2008: Slumdog Millionaire*, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (selected scenes)
2009: An Education, Up in the Air (expanded BP Field)
2010: The King's Speech*, 127 Hours, Black Swan
2011: The Artist*, The Descendants
2012: Argo*, Amour
2013: 12 Years a Slave*, Gravity, Nebraska
2014: Birdman*, The Imitation Game
2015: Spotlight*, Room

That's a total of 31 Best Picture nominations over TFF's 42 years and 23 of those since 2005 and, of course, the Best Picture winner for six straight years and seven of the last eight.  At least one film from the Telluride lineup has been Best Picture nominated every year since 2003.


THE BERLIN FEST AND TELLURIDE

The 2016 Berlin International Film Festival concluded on Feb. 20 but with all the Oscar hoopla, it got a little lost in the shuffle.  Why does it matter?  Because there will almost certainly be 1-3 films that played the Berlin programs that will screen for the first time in North America at Telluride.  Last year, three Berlin films made their way to T-ride after having bowed originally in Berlin: Taxi, 45 Years and Ixcanul.  In the recent past Telluride has seen '71, Gloria, Barbara, and A Royal Affair after they had originated in Berlin.

So, what films made a splash at this year's Berlin fest that could possibly appear over Labor Day weekend in southwest Colorado?

A number of Berlin prize winners have a real chance.  This year's Golden Bear winner was a refugee documentary chosen by a Meryl Streep led jury.  Gianfranco Rosi' Fire at Sea was picked up for U.S. distribution this week by Kino Lorber (story below).  Kino has had a presence at Telluride in the past with last year's Golden Bear winner, Taxi, being a recent example.  So call Fire at Sea a real possibility.

Also, Mia Hansen Love won Best Director for her Things to Come which is being distributed by Sundance Selects and Trine Dyrholm won Best Actress for Thomas Vinterberg's The Commune which does not currently have a U.S. distributor but considering Vinterberg's recent presence at Telluride (The Hunt in 2012) should be a consideration in our Telluride guessing game.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/gallery/berlin-12-cant-miss-movies-869051/13-next-gallery

https://mubi.com/notebook/posts/berlinale-2016-top-picks-coverage-roundup

http://variety.com/2016/film/festivals/berlin-film-festival-competition-winners-2016-1201711207/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/fire-at-sea-wins-golden-bear-20160220

http://www.indiewire.com/article/kino-lorber-picks-up-berlinale-golden-bear-winner-fire-at-sea-20160224

http://www.indiewire.com/article/berlin-international-film-festival-winners-2016-20160220




TICKETS FOR SALE



We git the invitation/notice in the email this week.  Telluride 2016 passes went onsale to the public on Mar. 1.  Here's the text of the email.

Dear SHOWfriend:

Join us for the 43rd Telluride Film Festival this Labor Day Weekend Friday, September 2nd through Monday, September 5th, 2016.

Our online Box Office for Cinephile, Acme and Festival level passes opens today Tuesday, March 1st, 2016 at 9AM PST. We have sold out of Patron Passes.  We make them available for purchase each year on December 1st, and they sold very quickly.

You need to provide a headshot for your pass — take the time now to scan that special shot, or better yet take a selfie with your camera phone. Any picture that is a close-up of your face will do.

A downloadable order form is also available upon request. We'll still need those gorgeous photos.

If you have any questions on the best way to order your pass, or other general inquiries regarding the Festival, give us a call at 510.665.9494.

We are deeply grateful for your generosity and continuous support. Thank you, and see you at the SHOW!

Get those passes people!

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

Oscar Afterthoughts / Too Early Oscar Speculation and Telluride / Post Oscar Expert Analysis

Good Thursday everyone.  Time for some post-Oscar let down.

OSCAR AFTERTHOUGHTS

I was inordinately pleased that Spotlight closed the night as the Best Picture winner last Sunday.  I know it's silly but I was still rooting for a Telluride picture to win despite the fact that most serious observers felt that The Revenant was going to claim the big prize.  I actually let out a fairly loud whoop when Morgan Freeman said "Spaw..."  Didn't need to hear the second syllable.

As noted on Monday, TFF42 films knocked down four Oscars.  Two for Spotlight: Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay.  Room's Brie Larson won Best Actress and included a very vocal endorsement/thank you to Telluride and Hungary's Son of Saul was named Best Foreign Film.

Not a bad night for those of us who follow both The SHOW and the Oscar show.  Congratulations to Larson, Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer and Laszlo Nemes.  

One wonders what's in store for the 89th Academy Awards and in what ways we'll be discussing TFF 43 in that context a year from now.  Which leads to...

TOO EARLY OSCAR SPECULATION AND TELLURIDE

As you might expect, the parties Sunday night hadn't even finished and there was already some pieces up in various corners of the interweb about what films could be in play for the 2016 Oscars.  You also won't be surprised, if you read this space with much regularity, that I couldn't resist parsing them for possible titles that might be included in the TFF43 lineup.  So, here are some of the outlets that have already struck the first blow of Oscar speculation for next year's ceremony.

The Playlist list includes a number of films that might crack the T-ride lineup including: Pablo Larrain's Jackie, Ang Lee's Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk and Amma Asante's A United Kingdom seem the most likely.  Here's The Playlist's compete list:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/premature-oscar-predictions-the-2017-best-picture-academy-award-contenders-20160301

Here's a rundown from Awards Circuit:

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2016/02/29/103485/

And from The Hollywood Reporter, which includes Billy Lynn and Lion which could figure in the Telluride lineup:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/oscars-2017-predictions-way-early-870181/item/silence-oscars-2017-picks-870189

POST OSCAR EXPERT ANALYSIS

I have linked post-Oscar analysis from Kristopher Tapley of Variety/InContention and Sasha Stone/Awards Daily and Jeff Wells/Hollywood Elsewhere:

http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/spotlight-oscars-analysis-2016-1201719746/

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2016/03/morning-after-poker/


That'll take care of business for this Thursday.  More to come Monday!

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mpgort@gmail.com OR

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And The Oscar Went To...

Good Post Oscar Monday peeps!

AND THE OSCAR WENT TO...

Here are your results from last night's presentation of the 88th Academy Awards (Telluride #42 films are in Bold):


Animated Short: Bear Story

Documentary Short: The Girl in the River

Live Action Short: Stutterer

Sound Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Mixing: Mad Max:Fury Road

Makeup/Hair: Mad Max; Fury Road

Costumes: Mad Max: Fury Road

Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road

Visual Effects: Ex Machina

Original Song: Writings on the Wall/Spectre

Original Score: The Hateful Eight

Cinematography: The Revenant

Film Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road

Documentary Feature: Amy

Animated Feature: Inside Out

Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul

Original Screenplay: Spotlight

Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short

Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance

Supporting Actress; Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl

Lead Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant

Lead Actress: Brie Larson/Room

Direction; Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant

Best Picture: Spotlight 



Telluride 2015 Films with wins:

Oscar totals:

The Revenant wins  three Oscars

Mad Max:Fury Road wins six Oscars.

Spotlight won two Oscars.

The FAC goes   15/24 in its Oscar picks for 63 %.  The FAC did have the actual winners in seven of its misses as possible spoilers.

Telluride #42 films won four Oscars:  Spotlight two, Son of Saul and Room (Brie Larson/Best Actress) one apiece.

The Telluride streakof the first North American screening of the eventual Best Picture winner continues :

2008-Slumdog Millionaire
2010- The King's Speech
2011-The Artist
2012- Argo
2013- 12 Years a Slave
2014- Birdman
2015- Spotlight

Six straight years and seven of the last eight.

Biggest surprise of the night was the Ex Machina win for Visual Effects.

More coverage and a turning of the page coming on Thursday's post from Michael's Telluride Film Blog...What will we see in the San Juans this Labor Day?

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mpgort@gmail.com OR

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Final Oscar Predictions from the Experts Updated: Stone, Tapley, Feinberg, Davis, Gurus of Gold, Gold Derby and MORE

FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS UPDATED: FEINBERG, TAPLEY, STONE, GURUS OF GOLD, GOLD DERBY AND MORE

Here are links to some of the best in the Oscar prognostication business and their final picks for what will happen on Sunday night.  I'll up date these predictions as a standalone post through the weekend...so keep checking back for the latest links.

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention:

http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/oscar-predictions-winners-1201710084/

Pete Hammond/Deadline.com:

http://deadline.com/2016/02/oscars-2016-winners-predictions-academy-awards-handicap-1201701700/


Dave Karger/Fandango:

http://www.fandango.com/features/winning-your-2016-oscar-pool/

Gurus of Gold/Movie City News:

http://moviecitynews.com/2016/02/gurus-o-gold-our-best-guess-our-final-guess/


Awards Daily:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/02/25/statsgasm-final-predictions-for-the-88th-academy-awards/


Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/oscars-2016-who-will-win-869354/item/best-director-oscars-who-will-869353


Film School Rejects:

http://filmschoolrejects.com/features/2016-oscar-predictions.php

Awards Circuit:

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2016/02/24/103317/

The Playlist:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-playlists-final-predictions-for-the-2016-oscar-winners-20160224

Peter Howell/The Toronto Star:

https://t.co/2W8Fn6qhLG

Metacritic:

https://t.co/DE23jbolxV

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire

https://t.co/4ROLjNpevq

Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience:

https://t.co/PMzCj3EtwR

HitFix:

https://t.co/SiUdOcw2jt

Gold Derby:

https://t.co/hWjkTrLwqp

Hollywood News:

http://www.hollywoodnews.com/2016/02/26/a-final-set-of-oscar-predictions/


Check back here at MTFB/FAC for Oscar prediction updates from the experts through the weekend and a first look at Oscar results in Monday's post.

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

The (Probably) Final Film Awards Clearinghouse Oscar Predictions / Oscar Odds and Ends / Final (?) Oscar Predictions from the Experts

Good morning America; how are you?

THE (PROBABLY) FINAL FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE OSCAR PREDICTIONS

Barring something really unusal happening between now and Sunday night, this is the best assessment that The FAC has about all 24 Oscar categories and what is likely to be announced by The Academy as the Best of film from 2015.

As always...

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

Live Action Short:

Winner: Shok

Spoiler(s) Day One, Stutterer or Ave Maria 

Documentary Short Subject:

Winner: Claude Lanzman: Spectres of The Shoah

Spoiler(s): Either Body Team 12 or Chau, Beyond the Lines

Animated Short:

Winner: World of Tomorrow

Spoiler(s): Sanjay's Super Team or Bear Story

Sound Editing:

Winner: The Revenant

Spoiler: Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Mixing:

Winner: The Revenant

Spoiler: Mad Max: Fury Road

Visual Effects:

Winner: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Spoilers: The Revenant or Mad Max: Fury Road

Makeup/Hair:

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

Spoiler: The Revenant

Costumes:

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

Spoiler: Carol

Production Design:

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

Spoiler: The Revenant

Original Song:

Winner: Til It Happens to You/The Hunting Ground

Spoiler: Writings on the Wall/Spectre

Original Score:

Winner: The Hateful Eight

Spoiler: Star Wars; The Force Awakens

Cinematography:

Winner: The Revenant

Spoiler: Mad Max; Fury Road

Film Editing:

Winner:Mad Max: Fury Road

Spoiler: The Big Short

Documentary Feature:

Winner: Amy

Spoiler: Cartel Land

Animated Feature:

Winner: Inside Out

Spoiler: Anomalisa

Foreign Language Feature:

Winner: Son of Saul

Spoiler: Mustang

Original Screenplay:
Winner: Spotlight
Spoiler: Inside Out

Adapted Screenplay:
Winner: The Big Short
Spoiler: Room

Supporting Actor:
Winner: Sylvester Stallone/Creed
Spolier(s): Christian Bale/The Big Short or Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies

Supporting Actress:
Winner: Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl
Spoiler: Rooney Mara/Carol

Lead Actor:
Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant
Spoiler: Bryan Cranston/Trumbo

Lead Actress:
Winner: Brie Larson/Room
Spoiler: Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn

Director:
Winner: Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant
Spoiler: Adam McKay/The Big Short

Best Picture:
Winner: The Revenant
Spoiler(s): Either Spotlight or The Big Short

OSCAR ODDS AND ENDS

The likeliest categories for surprises (and the ones that will probably determine your office pool or your Gold Derby or Awards Daily Oscar contests) are: the three shorts categories, sound editing and mixing, production design, costumes, film editing, and Best Picture.

If The FAC is 100% accurate...

The night's big winner, and I do mean BIG,  will Alejandro Inarritu's The Revenant, which The FAC is currently predicting as the winner of six Oscars: Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Cinematography, Direction, Lead Actor and Best Picture.  

The ONLY other film that is predicted for multiple Oscars is Mad Max: Fury Road with four: Best Film Editing, Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

All other winners look like they will be taking home single statues.

TFF #42 films will account for three Oscars for Spotlight's original screenplay, Son of Saul as Foreign Language Film and Brie Larson winning Best Actress for Room.  Telluride could have films that play the spoiler in six other categories with the most likely spoilers being Sanjay's Super Team as Animated Short and Spotlight as Best Picture.

The FAC historical accuracy record is 76%.  I've been crunching numbers since the 2010 Oscars but The FAC has gotten better over time.  The accuracy rate for the past two years has been 88%.

Here's the year by year rate since I started:

2010: 14/24

2011: 17/24

2012: 18/24

2013: 18/24

2014: 22/24

2015: 20/24

As weird as this season has been, I wouldn't be surprised if The FAC reverted back to an 18/24 correct prediction rate on Sunday night.

FOLLOW MTFB/FAC ON TWITTER @Gort2 FOR LIVE OSCAR UPDATES AND VARIOUS COMMENTARY ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

FINAL(?) OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

Here are links to some of the best in the Oscar prognostication business and their final picks for what will happen on Sunday night.  I'll up date these predictions as a standalone post through the weekend...so keep checking back for the latest links.

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention:

http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/oscar-predictions-winners-1201710084/

Pete Hammond/Deadline.com:

http://deadline.com/2016/02/oscars-2016-winners-predictions-academy-awards-handicap-1201701700/


Dave Karger/Fandango:

http://www.fandango.com/features/winning-your-2016-oscar-pool/


Gurus of Gold/Movie City News:

http://moviecitynews.com/2016/02/gurus-o-gold-our-best-guess-our-final-guess/


Check back here at MTFB/FAC for Oscar prediction updates from the experts through the weekend and a first look at Oscar results in Monday's post.

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

The FAC Looks at the More Obscure Oscar Categories / Feinberg Forecast Update / Spotlight In Depth

It's Monday of Oscar week...


THE FAC LOOKS AT THE MORE OBSCURE OSCAR CATEGORIES

These eight categories are where serious Oscar prognosticators are separated from the mere hobbyists.  Categories like Sound Editing and Best Live Action Short really separate the wheat from the chaff in Oscar predicting world.

So here it is.  The FAC assessment of the lesser known Oscar categories.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Mad Max: Fury Road

2) The Revenant

3) The 100 Year Old Man Who...

Comment:

The FAC has Mad Max:Fury Road as a solid but not prohibitive favorite.

COSTUMES

1) Mad Max: Fury Road

2) Carol

3) The Danish Girl

4) Cinderella

5) The Revenant

Comment:Max's lead is substantial but not insurmountable.  Carol could surprise.

SOUND EDITING

1) The Revenant

2) Mad Max: Fury Road

3) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

4) The Martian

5) Sicario

SOUND MIXING

1) The Revenant

2) Mad Max:Fury Road

3) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

4) The Martian

5) Bridge of Spies

Comment on the Sound categories:  In both cases, The Revenant lead is good but Mad Max is close enough in both categories to keep it interesting.

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Star Wars; The Force Awakens

2) The Revenant

3) Mad Max:Fury Road

4) The Martian

5) Ex Machina

Comment:  This is one of the closer categories in the entire list of 24 Oscar categories.  Star Wars is out front bu either The Revenant or Mad Max could win the trophy.

And now for the categories that really can make or break your Oscar office pool...The Shorts!

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Shok

2) Ave Maria

3) Day One

4) Stutterer

5) Everything Will Be Okay

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Claude Lanzman: Spectres of the Shoah

2) Body Team 12

3) Chau, Beyond the Lines

4) Last Day of Freedom

5) A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness

ANIMATED SHORT

1) World of Tomorrow

2) Sanjay's Super Team

3) Bear Story

4) We Can't Live Without Cosmos

5) Prologue

Comments about the Short categories:  Live Action: Shok's lead is strong but any of the next three films could pick up the prize.  Doc Short: Close battle between the top three.  Animated Short: Also a close fight between the top three.

THURSDAY'S POST WILL INCLUDE THE FINAL FAC FOR ALL 24 OSCAR CATEGORIES...

FEINBERG FORECAST UPDATE

One of the sources that I use for The Film Awards Clearinghouse analysis of the Oscar race is The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg.  Scott updated hos latest forecast for Oscar winners on Friday and you can check those here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/academy-awards-21916/

SPOTLIGHT IN DEPTH

Spotlight trailer via YouTube

Over the past few days I have collected a number of articles, profiles, interviews and posts about TFF #42 and six time Oscar nominated film Spotlight.  Those are all linked below:

http://www.bostonglobe.com/lifestyle/names/2015/10/30/how-spotlight-movie-got-made/wXVXUiYPkoF3hEP9K4dydP/story.html?event=event25

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/awards-chatter-podcast-tom-mccarthy-867386

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/02/19/spotlight-richard-jenkins-voice-god

http://www.scpr.org/programs/the-frame/2015/11/06/45132/michael-keaton-says-spotlight-takes-a-strong-stanc/

http://blog.afi.com/afi-grad-michael-rezendes-on-the-true-story-of-spotlight/#.Vsk5r4Cg4C8.twitter

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/02/18/spotlight-mark-ruffalo-dvd
More on Thursday...

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

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The Latest FAC for Major Oscar Categories / BAFTA Results and a Few Thoughts / WGA Rewards Spotlight and The Big Short

Good Monday everyone...welcome to another post on Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse.


THE LATEST FAC FOR MAJOR OSCAR CATEGORIES

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) The Big Short (1)

2) The Revenant (3)

3) Spotlight (2)

4) Mad Max: Fury Road (4)

5) The Martian (5)

6) Room (6)

7) Bridge of Spies (7)

8) Brooklyn (8)

Comment: The Revenant's and Alejandro Inarritu's DGA win has shuffled the top of the deck slightly.  Spotlight slips from #2 to #3 and The Revenant moves up to that #2 spot.   The top three films are bunched within a two point window in The FAC metric so the Best Picture race is still wide, wide open.

It will interesting to see if last night's BAFTA announcement changes the field further.  

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (1)

2) Adam McKay/The Big Short (2)

3) George Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road (4)

4) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (3)

5) Lenny Abrahamson/Room (5)

Comment:  McCarthy and Miller trade places signalling a weakening among The FAC pundits in their feeling that Spotlight is waning, however slightly, in the Best Picture race. 

BEST ACTRESS

1) Brie Larson/Room (1)

2) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (2)

3) Cate Blanchett/Carol (4)

4) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (3)

5) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy

Comment: Larson has solidified her hold on the lead here.  Slight shift below her as Blanchett and Rampling switch the #3 and #4 positions.

BEST ACTOR

1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (1)

2) Bryan Cranston/Trumbo

3) Michael Fassbender /Steve Jobs (3)

4) Matt Damon/The Martian (4)

5) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (5)

Comment: It's Leo all the way here.  The category remains static from the last FAC post.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)

2) Rooney Mara/Carol (2)

3) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)

4) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (4)

5) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (5)

Comment: Another category that's frozen with these nominees in the same positions as the last FAC.  Vikander is away out front.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1)  Sylvester Stallone/Creed (1)

2) Christian Bale/The Big Short (4)

3) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (2)

4) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (3)

5) Tom Hardy/The Revenant (5)

Comment:  Stallone is the odds on favorite.  Bale's ascendance could signal a rise in The Big Short's fortunes and the subsequent drop for Mark Ruffalo might be another signal that Spotlight might be waning.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Big Short (1)

2) Room (2)

3) The Martian (5)

4) Carol (3)

5) Brooklyn (4)

Comment: Last weekend's WGA win for The Big Short only solidifies its status as the very likely winner for this category on Oscar night.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Spotlight (1)

2) Inside Out (2)

3) Ex Machina (3)

4) Straight Outta Compton (4)

5) Bridge of Spies (5)

Comment: Spotlight won the WGA and is the prohibitive favorite here.

BAFTA RESULTS AND A FEW THOUGHTS

Alejandro Inarritu's western revenge/survival dram The Revenant won the British version of the Oscar last night for Best Picture.  Inarritu also won as did star Leonardo DiCaprio.  The film also won honors for cinematography (Emmanuel Lubezki also won the American Society of Cinematographers Award for Best Cinematography last night...making him likely to win an unprecedented third straight Oscar) and  Best Sound.

In addition to DiCaprio, Brie Larson won Best Actress for Room, Kate Winslet was named Best Supporting Actress for Steve Jobs and Mark Rylance as Best Supporting Actor for Bridge of Spies.

Other winners last night included Screenplay wins for Spotlight and The Big Short.  Mad Max; Fury Road won four tech awards for editing, costumes, makeup and production design.

Complete results are here:

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/bafta-awards-winners-2016-complete-list-british-academy-film-television-1201706004/

The Revenant's win on top of its win with the DGA most likely signals that it is the front runner for the Best Picture Oscar in less than two weeks time.  That said, analysis from Oscar pros Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter and Kristopher Tapley of Variety's InContention say.."not so fast".

Both analysts suggest that The Revenant is the likely favorite but they also point out that this season has been anything but predictable and that the BAFTA last year rewarded Richard Linklater's Boyhood.  So, they both say, the race may still not be over andwe could still have a surprise or two on Feb. 28.

Check out their analysis here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/bafta-awards-revenant-wins-dont-865269

http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/the-revenant-key-bafta-awards-analysis-1201706167/

One final note: Telluride films won Best Actress-Brie Larson/Room, Best Supporting Actress-Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs, Original Screenplay-Spotlight and Non-English Language Film-Wild Tales.

WGA REWARDS SPOTLIGHT AND THE BIG SHORT

The Writers Guild of America named their award winners for 2015 on Saturday with TFF #42 film Spotlight named Best Original Screenplay and The Big Short winning Best Adapted Screenplay. Those wins are expected to be repeated on Oscar night in a couple of weeks.

I have linked WGA coverage here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/2016-wga-winners-complete-list-856955/item/original-screenplay-2016-wga-theatrical-852591

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-awards-writersguild-idUSKCN0VN072

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/02/13/writer-guild-awards-announcing/

http://variety.com/2016/film/in-contention/wga-awards-winners-writers-guild-america-1201705269/

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mpgort@gmail.com OR

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Oscar Experts Update / Future Telluride? More Payne / Morris Off the Hook

Good Thursday Everyone...


OSCAR EXPERTS UPDATE

As Oscar Night continues to get closer, here's a snapshot of where a number of Oscar experts think the Best Picture race (and others) are right now.  I've linked a number of charts and podcasts from Gold Derby as well as the latest updated predictions form Kristopher Tapley of InContention at Variety.


http://www.goldderby.com/news/11694/oscar-predictions-best-picture-the-revenant-spotlight-the-big-short-13579086.html

http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/experts/oscars-2015/best-picture.html

http://www.goldderby.com/news/11700/oscar-predictions-revenant-entertainment-381674925-story.html

http://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/oscar-predictions-oscars-academy-awards-1201600870/



The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announce their winners this weekend and that will be the next nugget of precursor information.



FUTURE TELLURIDE? MORE PAYNE

I have reported here previously that Telluride regular Alexander Payne was producing Wilson and that his next directing effort will be Downsizing with Matt Damon.  Both of those films could figure into future Telluride film lineups.  Noe comes word of another directing job that Payne will undertake for the same producers that were behind his Nebraska and Election.

The film is tentatively titled My Saga.  Reports are linked below:

http://www.thewrap.com/alexander-payne-to-direct-karl-ove-knausgaard-my-saga-for-nebraska-producers/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/alexander-payne-to-direct-road-trip-flick-my-saga-20160209

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/bona-fide-acquires-movie-rights-to-knausgaard-new-york-times-series-my-saga-for-alexander-payne-exclusive-20160209


MORRIS OFF THE HOOK

A few weeks ago I posted a story that Errol Morris was being sued by the subject of his 2010 documentary Tabloid.  Word this week is that the suit has been dismissed.  Here are the details from The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr-esq/hollywood-docket-errol-morris-steven-863043



That'll do for Thursday.  A new FAC Oscar update will be coming your way on Monday.


Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

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