Feinberg's First Oscar Take / New Trailer for TAR / Aftersun Poster and Trailer / Denmark Selects Holy Spider and We Get a New Trailer / Netflix Acquires Sr.

FEINBERG'S FIRST OSCAR TAKE

In my last post I ran down the Oscar predictions from Variety's Clayton Davis in as far as TFF #49 films were concerned.  Today,  I'm taking the same approach with The Hollywood Reporter's Chief Awards Editor Scott Feinberg who dropped his first look at the Oscar race on Tuesday.  If Scott is 100% accurate, this is how Oscar nominations shake out in the 11 categories he has included in his predictions.

Women Talking: Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress/Foy, Supporting Actress/Buckley, Adapted Screenplay

TAR: Best Picture, Direction, Actress/Blanchett

Empire of Light: Best Actress/Colman

Close: International Feature

Holy Spider: International Feature

Bardo: International Feature

Goodnight Oppy: Documentary Feature

Retrograde: Documentary Feature

Other TFF#49 Films/Performers who Feinberg has listed as "Major Threats" Include:

*Close and Goodnight Oppy in Best Picture

*Close/Lukas Dhont in Best Direction

*Living/Bill Nighy in Best Actor

*Women Talking/Rooney Mara and One Fine Morning/Lea Seydoux in Best Actress

*Women Talking/Ben Whishaw, Armageddon Time/Jeremy Strong and Empire of Light/Michael Ward in Best Supporting Actor

*Lady Chatterley's Lover and The Wonder in Adapted Screenplay

*TAR, Close and Armageddon Time in Original Screenplay

*All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Sr., The Return of Tanya Tucker and Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen (TFF #48) in Best Documentary

*Bones and All in Best Song

You can find the entirety of Feinberg's first forecast linked here.

NEW TRAILER FOR TAR

Focus Features dropped a new trailer for Todd Fields' TAR starring Cate Blanchett yesterday.  The film has earned strong reviews and won both MTFB's Professionals poll as well as the Composite poll.  TAR is scheduled for release next week: Oct. 7th.

Here's the new trailer from YouTube:

AFTERSUN POSTER AND TRAILER

A24 has revealed a poster for Charlotte Wells' Aftersun as well as releasing a first trailer for the film.  You can see the poster above and the trailer below via YouTube:

Aftersun is set to be released on Oct. 21st.

DENMARK SELECTS HOLY SPIDER AND WE GET A NEW TRAILER

Denmark has selected Ali Abbasi's Holy Spider as its entrant for the Best International Feature Oscar race.  Last year Denmark entered Flee which ended up with an incredible set of nominations for Best International Feature, Best Documentary and Best Animated Feature.  

Holy Spider is being distributed in the U.S. by Utopia and does not yet have a scheduled release date.

The announcement was made Tuesday by the Danish Film Institute.  You can find that official announcement here.

And here's the new trailer for the film that was released yesterday (from YouTube):

NETFLIX ACQUIRES SR.

News this week that Netflix had acquired the documentary about Robert Downey Sr. that screened in Telluride four weeks ago.  The film was well received by Telluride attendees as it finished third in my Telluride People's poll just behind women talking and TAR.

Sr. is directed by Chris Smith.

The Hollywood Reporter tells us that Netflix plans and Oscar push for the film and to expect it to be available on the streaming service before the end of the year.

Here's the story from THR.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

My Last Oscar Predix for 2018 / Looking at Feinberg's Forecast / Directors' Takes

Welcome to the last day of 2018 and Happy New Year!

MY LAST OSCAR PREDIX FOR 2018

I'm closing out 2018 with a look at up-to-the-minute Oscar Predictions for the four most major categories: Picture, Direction, Actress and Actor.

Actual voting begins in a week and the nomination announcement is just three weeks away (Jan. 22).

My last publication in this space for these categories was back on Dec. 10th.

Each film's past position is listed in parentheses and TFF #45 films are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) A Star Is Born (1)
2) Roma (2)
3) BlacKkKlansman (6)
4) Green Book (3)
5) Black Panther (5)
6) The Favourite (4)
7) Vice (8)
8) If Beale Street Could Talk (7)
9) Bohemian Rhapsody (-)
10) First Man (-)

Other possibles: First Reformed, Mary Poppins Returns, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST DIRECTION

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Roma (1)
2) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born (2)
3) Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman (3)
4) Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite (5)
5) Peter Farrelly/Green Book (-)

Other possibles: Ryan Coogler/Black Panther, Adam McKay/Vice, Barry Jenkins/If Beale Street Could Talk, Damien Chazelle/First Man

BEST ACTRESS

1) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born (2)
2) Glenn Close/The Wife (1)
3) Olivia Colman/The Favourite (3)
4) Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me? (4)
5) Emily Blunt/Mary Poppins Returns (5)

Other possibles: Yalitza Aparicio/Roma, Nicole Kidman/Destroyer, Toni Collette/Hereditary

BEST ACTOR

1) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born (2)
2) Christian Bale/Vice (1)
3) Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody (5)
4) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book (3)
5) Ethan Hawke/First Reformed (4)

Other possibles: John David Washington/BlacKkKlansman, Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate, Ryan Gosling/First Man


LOOKING AT FEINBERG'S FORECAST

Scott Feinberg, who is the awards genius at The Hollywood Reporter recently posted his end-of-the-year take on the Oscar season for all 24 Oscar categories.  Here's how Scott assesses the Oscar fates of TFF #45 films assuming 10 Best Picture nominees:

First Man (8): Best Picture, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects.

Roma (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Aparicio), Original Screenplay, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography, Production Design

The Favourite (7): Best Picture, Actress (Colman), Supporting Actress (Stone and Weisz), Original Screenplay, Costumes, Production Design

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3): Actress (McCarthy), Supporting Actor (Grant), Adapted Screenplay

Cold War (2): Foreign Language Film, Cinematography

Single nominations for:
Boy Erased- Supporting Actress (Kidman)
Shoplifters-Foreign Language Film
Free Solo-Documentary Feature
Border-Makeup/Hair
Caroline-Live Action Short
Fauve-Live Action Short

That's a total of 33 predicted nominations for TFF #45.

The complete set of Feinberg's Forecast at The Hollywood Reporter is linked here.


DIRECTORS' TAKES

Continuing my recent trend of linking interviews and profiles of artists from TFF #45 films that are being spotlighted this awards season...

Cold War's Pawel Pawlikowski from Indiewire

Destroyer's Karyn Kusama from Deadline



That's your last MTFB for 2018.  More to come in 2019.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

The Professionals' Telluride / The Early Oscar Landscape / Toronto Awards Green Book

It's Monday and I hope your weekend was outstanding!



THE PROFESSIONALS' TELLURIDE

Here's is your 2018 installment of The Professionals view of the films that played the 44th Telluride Film Festival.  14 industry journalists participated this year by rating each film they saw on a 1-5 scale.  They were:

Peter DeBruge/Variety
David Ehrlich/Indiwire
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Stephen Galloway/The Hollywood Reporter
Gary Kramer/Salon
Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit
Tomris Laffly/RogerEbert.com
Kenny Miles/We Live Entertainment
Eugene Novikov/Film Blather
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
Anonymous

Last year The Pros had The Shape of Water out front with a 4.50 average followed by two films which tied for the second spot; Faces Places and Loveless which both averaged 4.25.
In 2016 , Moonlight was on top with a 4.87 average followed by La La Land at 4.58.
In 2015, the top film was Son of Saul at 4.44 with Anomalisa second with a 4.42.
In 2014, number one was Birdman at 4.72 and second was Foxcatcher at 4.63.
2013: 12 Years a Slave 4.70 and Blue is the Warmest Color 4.40
2012: Central Park Five 4.7 and Argo 4.5

The top ten rated films in by the Professionals since I began them in 2012:

1) Moonlight (4.87) (16)
2) Birdman (4.72) (14)
3) 12 Years a Slave (4.70-tie) (13)
3) Central Park Five (4.70-tie) (12)
5) Foxcatcher (4.63) (14)
6) La La Land (4.58) (16)
7) Argo (4.50-tie) (12)
7) The Shape of Water (4.50) (17)
9) Son of Saul (4.44) (15)
10) Anomalisa (4.42) (15)



13 of the 33 fetaures for the 45th edition of The SHOW were evaluated by enough of the Pros to merit averaging their ratings.  Here are those results:

1) Roma (4.73)
2) First Man (4.17)
3) Cold War (4.14-tie)
3) Free Solo (4.14-tie)
5) Can You Ever Forgive Me ? (4.11)
6) The Favourite (3.90)
7) Watergate (3.60)
8) Border (3.50)
9) Destroyer (3.25)
10) Boy Erased (3.20)
11) The Old Man and the Gun (3.17)
12) White Boy Rick (3.06)
13) The Front Runner (3.05)


That also means that Roma moves onto the Top Ten form the Pros since 2012.  Roma moves to #2 ahead of Birdman by 1/100th of a point and bumps Anomalisa from the list.

Here's the new Pros Top Ten:

1) Moonlight (4.87) (16)
2) Roma (4.73) (18)
3) Birdman (4.72) (14)
4) 12 Years a Slave (4.70-tie) (13)
4) Central Park Five (4.70-tie) (12)
6) Foxcatcher (4.63) (14)
7) La La Land (4.58) (16)
8) Argo (4.50-tie) (12)
8) The Shape of Water (4.50-tie) (17)
10) Son of Saul (4.44) (15)


Coming on Monday: THE COMPOSITE TELLURIDE...the combination of The People and The Professionals.


THE EARLY OSCAR LANDSCAPE

I did a quick inventory of Sasha Stone's (Awards Daily), Scott Feinberg's (The Hollywood Reporter) and Clayton Davis' (Awards Circuit) early, early mostly post-fest (TFF, Venice, Toronto) takes on their views with regard to the Oscar races. They took their first stabs at the six major categories (Picture, Director and the acting categories at the end of the week last week with Sasha's first Forecast Friday, Scott's first Feinberg Forecast and Clayton's weekly updated predictions.

Focusing on films that played TFF #45 here's what the two Oscar pundits are saying:

Stone:

First Man leads the field with five nominations according to Stone: Best Picture, Direction, Actor Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor (Jason Clarke-who is going to to be one of the peeps that I am personally rooting for).

Boy Erased is next with three: Best Actor, Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor (Crowe)  Fienberg doesn't have Boy Erased listed at the front runner level in any category.

Four films are at two nominations according to Stone in the six major categories:

Roma: Best Picture, Direction
Can You Ever Forgive Me? Best Picture, Actress
The Old Man and the Gun: Actor and Supporting Actress
The Favourite: Actress (Colman), Supporting Actress (Stone)

Feinberg has four films bunched with four nominations from among the films that played TFF #45:

First Man: Best Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress
Roma: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress
The Favourite: Best Picture, Actress (Colman), Supporting Actress (both Stone and Weisz)

Feinberg also has Cold War listed as a Best Picture front runner but not as a probable short lister for Best Foreign Language Film.

Feinberg also has Hugh Jackman as a front runner for Best Actor for The Front Runner and Melissa McCarthy for Best Actress for Can You Ever Forgive Me?

For Davis' part the lay of the land looks like this for Telluride films in the major six categories:

First Man tops the list with four: Best Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress

Next are The Favourite and Can You Ever Forgive Me? with three each

The Favourite: Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Colman) - no nominations in Supporting Actress for either Stone or Weisz)

Can You Ever Forgive Me?: Best Picture, Actress and Supporting Actor

Three films for TFF #45 get two nominations in the major six categories according to Davis:

Roma: Best Picture, Direction
Boy Erased: Best Picture, Supporting Actress
The Old Man and the Gun: Actor, Supporting Actress

Complete predictions from each expert are linked below

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit



TORONTO AWARDS GREEN BOOK

The Grolsch Audience Award for favorite film at the Toronto International Film Festival ended up being a surprise as Peter Farrelly's Green Book took the top spot.  Barry Jenkins' If Beale Street Could Talk was the first runner-up and Alfonso Cuaron's Roma was second runner-up.

Many, including myself, were surprised that Bradley Cooper's A Star Is Born didn't land the award or even crack the top three.

One other TFF #45 title made waves as Free Solo was named Best Documentary.

Here's the Indiewire story about the TIFF awards.


That's a wrap for this MOnday.  I'll have more Thursday including this year's COMPOSITE TELLURIDE.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

FAC Oscar Update: Lead Acting / Oscar Updates from Experts / Interviews with TFF #44 Guests / Correction

It's November and here is your first MTFB of the new month...


FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE OSCAR UPDATE: LEAD ACTING

Oscar season continues and so does my meager attempt to predict the eventual nominees.  Today's focus is on the lead acting races which were first predicted here on Oct. 12th.

As always, predicted nominees connected with TFF #44 are in Bold.

Let's get to it...

BEST ACTRESS

Here is what the last FAC set of predictions had for the Best Actress race:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
3) Meryl Streep/The Post
4) Margo Robbie/I, Tonya
5) Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game

Others: Kate Winslet/Wonder Wheel, Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes, Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird


And the updated predictions:


1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Meryl Streep/The Post
5) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird

Others: Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes, Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Kate Winslet/Wonder Wheel

BEST ACTOR

From Oct. 12th:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Film
4) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
5) Hugh Jackman/The Greatest Showman

Others: Andrew Garfield/Breathe, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq., Tom Hanks/The Post

And today's updated predictions:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour

2) Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger

3) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name

4) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread

5) Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq.

Others: Steve Carell/Last Flag Flying, Andrew Garfield/Breathe, Tom Hanks/The Post


OSCAR UPDATES FROM THE EXPERTS

Both Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter and Jason Osiason of Fantastic Film Fans (and also one of The Gold Rush Gang over at Awards Watch) have updated their Oscar predictions as of Nov. 1.

The latest Feinberg Forecast can be found here.

Osaison's latest take is linked here.

Feinberg  predicts 15 categories and has the following nominations predicted for films that played at Telluride in 2017:

The Shape of Water: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography and Score.

Lady Bird: Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour: Best Picture, Direction, Actor, Cinematography and Score

Wonderstruck: Supporting Actress, Production Design, Cinematography, Score

Loving Vincent: Animated Feature

Foxtrot: Foreign Language Film

Loveless; Foreign Language Film

Downsizing: Production Design

An Inconvenient Sequel: Best Song

Osiason predicts the major eight categories including these for TFF #44 films:

The Shape of Water: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay

Lady Bird; Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour: Best Picture, Actor

MORE INTERVIEWS WITH TFF #44 GUESTS

Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird opens tomorrow.  The film, which was quite the hit at T-ride,  has continued to gain fans through the rest of the fall film festival season.  Writer-director Gerwig was recently interviewed by Harry Haun for Film Journal which posted it this week.

Here's the link to that from Film Journal.


Meanwhile, Joe Wright's Darkest Hour, the detailed account of the events that led to the rescue at Dunkirk, opens Thanksgiving weekend.  Gary Oldman plays Winston Churchill and is widely regarded as the prohibitive favorite to pick the Best Actor Oscar next March.

Oldman is featured by Interviewmagazine.com in a piece authored by Jack White.

You can read that here.


CORRECTION

In my previous post on Oct. 30th I wrote that Ai Weiwei's refugee documentary, Human Flow, was still without distribution.  An eagle-eyed reader, who shall remain anonymous, pointed out that Human Flow was picked up for distribution by Amazon back in June according to The Hollywood Reporter.

I regret the error.  The original story has been corrected to reflect this.

That's your MTFB for this Thursday.  As always, there will be more on Monday.




EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Byron Allen Gets Friendly With Hostiles / The Stanton Oscar Express Making Headway? / New Poster for Film Stars / First Reformed Added to NYFF

Welcome to the first Thursday in October...


BYRON ALLEN GETS FRIENDLY WITH HOSTILES

After having premiered at Telluride and playing Toronto and being announced as the opening film for the Rome Film Fest, Scott Cooper's Hostiles has finally gained distribution.

The news was revealed Tuesday that Byron Allen's fledgling Entertainment Studios.  Reports suggested that plans for the film will include an Oscar qualifying release before the end of the year and a wider release in January.

Those plans mean that Christian Bale and Rosamund Pike are probably both part of the awards conversation for acting honors and that the film could be a player in the Best Picture, Direction and Screenplay categories as well.

The film was received in a generally positive way at both Telluride and Toronto especially Bale for his portrayal of a 19th century U.S. Army Captain charged with escorting a Native American Chief (Wes Studi) to Montana from New Mexico.  The film  currently has a 67 on Rotten Tomatoes and a 63 from Metacritic.

Further coverage is here from:

Variety

Indiewire



THE STANTON OSCAR EXPRESS MAKING HEADWAY?


FOr those that have been following along, the Harry Dean Stanton for Best Actor Oscar campaign may have gotten a boost this week as Scott Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporters chief awards writer, included Stanton in his latest Feinberg Forecast,

Feinberg, doing an update of FF at the halfway mark of the New York Film Festival lists HDS as a "New" entrant on the race as a part pf a group he labels as "Major Threats".  That puts the late Stanton in Feinberg's top 12 for Oscar Best Actor.

The complete and updated version of The Feinberg Forecast is here



.NEW POSTER FOR FILM STARS


Paul McGuigan's Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool starring Annette Bening as film star Gloria Grahame and Jamie Bell has a new poster as it moves towards its Dec. 29th limited release date in the U.S..  The film is under the umbrella of Sony Pictures Classics. and in addition to having premiered at Telluride played Toronto and will play London, Mill Valley and Middleburg.

Check the new poster:

Also take a look at the story from The Express (UK).


FIRST REFORMED ADDED TO NYFF

A24 announced earlier this week that Paul Schrader's First Reformed has been added to the lineup of the on-going New York Film Festival.  The film played Telluride, Venice and Toronto.  The film stars Ethan Hawke and Amanda Seyfried.

It is scheduled to screen tomorrow evening at 6:00pm in Alice Tully Hall.  A release date has not yet been set.

Here's the rundown from NYFF.

Independent Spirit Awards Reward TFF #43 Films / Focus on TFF #43 Performers / Oscar Biz Buzz

Happy Turkey Mastication Day!  Welcome to Michael's Telluride Film Blog and The Film Awards Clearinghouse.


INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARDS NOMINATIONS REWARD TFF #43 FILMS

The Film Independent Spirit Nominations were announced on Tuesday with two TFF #43 titles getting prominent attention.  Barry Jenkins Moonlight and Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea had a ton of nominations (six and five respectively).  Moonlight co-lead all films tying Andrea Arnold's American Honey with the most nominations.

Moonlight was nominated for six Spirits: Best Feature, Direction, Screenplay, Cinematography Editing and the Robert Altman Award.
Manchester was nominated for five Spirits: Feature, Screenplay, Best Actor (Casey Affleck), Supporting Male (Lucas Hedges) and Editing.

The only other mention for TFF #43 films was for Best International Film for Toni Erdmann.

Surprises/snubs included the lack of any individual acting nomination for Moonlight and no Supporting Female nom for Manchester's Michelle Williams.

Additionally, it should be noted that perceived Oscar front runner La La Land was not eligible for any Spirit nominations.

I have linked coverage below that breaks down the nominees,  analyzes the Oscar ramifications from these nominations and takes a deeper look at the perceived stunners.  Here are those links:


Nomination Coverage:

coverage from Indiewire

coverage from Variety

coverage from The Wrap


Oscar ramifications:


Sasha Stone of Awards Daily

Anne Thompson from Indiewire


Nomination analysis...surprises and snubs

Ramin Setoodeh of Variety



FOCUS ON TFF #43 PERFORMERS

As we move deeper into awards season and the release schedule for the films that are thought to be in play, we find ourselves able to access any number of stories, interviews and profiles of the actors from those films.  Within the last week we saw the posting of The Hollywood Reporter's annual Actresses Roundtable which features, among others, Emma Stone/La La Land, Amy Adams/Arrival and Naomie Harris/Moonlight from TFF #43 films.  That roundtable is here.

Additionally, Variety profiles actor Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea and focuses on how he came to play the role that has him in the thick of the discussion for Best Actor this year.  That Variety piece is here.

Finally (at least for this MTFB/FAC post) Indiewire talked to Moonlight's Naomie Harris who is also widely thought to be a leading candidate for an Oscar nomination for Best Supporting Actress. That Indiewire profile is here.


OSCAR BIZ BUZZ

Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter has updated his predictions for Oscar nominations.

Here's what he thinks will happen on nomination announcement morning:

La La Land gets 13 nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Original Score, two nominations for Original Song, Production Design, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing.

Moonlight gets six nominations: Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Film Editing.

Manchester by the Sea gets six nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Original Screenplay.

According to Feinberg, TFF #43's other possible Oscar draw-Arrival-won't get any nominations. Feinberg mentions the film in eight categories but never lists it above the level of "major threat".

Here's the link to Feinberg's  complete predictions.

Meanwhile, Deadline's Pete Hammond has examined the aftermath of  the fall film festival season. Hammond offers takes on a number of films including Arrival. Moonlight, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and Sully.

Hammond's Deadline evaluation can be found here.


That's all for Turkey Day...more on Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT to the Blog.

The Composite Telluride / Where the Oscar Race Seems to Be / Toronto Comes to a Close / The Moonlight Crew Has a New Project

Good Monday World...


THE COMPOSITE TELLURIDE

For the fourth year in a row, I've combined the ratings from both groups that I survey after the Telluride Film Festival comes to a conclusion.  I don't know that combining the ratings from both The People and The Professionals really provides any further insight into how films were perceived over the Labor Day weekend but it seems interesting to me as one more tool to use to parse what happened over that three and a half days.

So here it is, the 2016 TFF #43 Composite Ratings.  The ratings are a simple addition of the ratings from the two groups.  The position for each film is also listed with its People's rating position first followed by its Professionals rating position.  14 films earned enough responses from both groups to qualify for The Composite Ratings.

1) Moonlight (9.19) 1-1
2) La La Land (8.91) 2-2
3) Manchester by the Sea (8.13) 5-4
4) Arrival (8.01) 6-7
5) Maudie (7.89) 3-9
6) Sully (7.68) 10-6
7) Toni Erdmann (7.65) 9-8
8) Things to Come (7.25) 19-3
9) Una (6.85) 15-10
10) California Typewriter (6.78)13-11
10) Into the Inferno (6.78) 21-5
12) Wakefield (6.26) 12-14
13) Bleed for This (6.12) 14-13
14) Norman (5.97) 16-15

The People's list included seven films that didn't have enough of The Pros rating them to qualify for The Composite: The Eagle Huntress, Bright Lights, Frantz, Lost in Paris, Chasing Trane, Through the Wall and Graduation.  The Pros only had one film that missed enough votes from The People to get into the Composite and that was Pablo Larrain's Neruda.

The biggest disconnects between the groups were Maudie which The People loved but for which The Pros were less enamored.  Werner Herzog's Into the Inferno was the other film with a disparate reaction but of the opposite nature as The Pros embraced whereas The People were not as enraptured. Una and Sully where also slightly divisive.

In 2013 the top five composite films were:

1) 12 Years a Slave (9.25)
2) Tim's Vermeer (8.97)
3) Gravity (8.75)
4) Nebraska (8.38)
5) All is Lost (8.26)

In 2014 the top five were:

1) Birdman (9.18)
2) Foxcatcher (8.83)
3) The Imitation Game (8.79)
4) Wild Tales (8.43)
5) '71 (8.15)

In 2015 the top five were:

1) Spotlight (8.86)
2) Son of Saul (8.74)
3) Beasts of No Nation (8.62)
4) Steve Jobs (8.17)
5) Carol (8.13)

With this year's ratings, I have put together the All Time (well, for the last four years) Top Ten Composite Rated Films from TFF:

1) 12 Years a Slave (9.25) 2013
2) Moonlight (9.19) 2016
3) Birdman (9.18) 2014
4) Tim's Vermeer (8.97) 2013
5) La La Land (8.91) 2016
6) Spotlight (8.86) 2015
7) Foxcatcher (8.83) 2014
8) The Imitation Game (8.79) 2014
9) Gravity (8.75) 2013
10) Son of Saul (8.74) 2015

Moonlight and La La Land bump Beasts of No Nation and Wild Tales from The Composite All Time Top Ten.


WHERE THE OSCAR RACE SEEMS TO BE

With the Toronto International Film Fest closing last night, the triumvirate of September fests (Telluride, Venice, Toronto) that unofficially start The Oscar Season are in the books and the serious Oscar pundits, experts and handicappers have begun the process of assessing the landscape.  We all know that there are more films still to come that could/will factor into the race (Ang Lee's Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk and Martin Scorsese's Silence jump to mind immediately.  Robert Zemeckis' Allied and Warren Beatty's Rules Don't Apply also).

So MTFB begins to turn the page and emphasize The Film Awards Clearinghouse (FAC) portion of this space's too long name.  The FAC will appear for the first time for the 2016 season on Thursday with my look at four major categories: Picture, Director, Actress and Actor.

Meanwhile, let's see where the experts are saying the race is and how TFF #43 films fit into that as we move past Telluride, Venice and Toronto into the fall...

Latest from The Gold Derby:

Best Picture: La La Land (1), Manchester by the Sea (2), Moonlight (6) and Arrival (9) are the Telluride films in the top ten.  Also listed: Sully at #11, Bleed for This at #31 and Toni Erdmann at #42.

Best Director: Damien Chazelle/La La Land (1), Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester (2), Barry Jenkins/Moonlight (6), Denis Villenueve/Arrival (7), Clint Eastwood/Sully (11), Ben Younger/Bleed for This (16) and Maren Ade/Toni Erdmann (37).

Best Actress: Emma Stone/La La Land (1), Amy Adams/Arrival (6), Sandra Huller/Toni Erdmann (27)

Best Actor: Casey Affleck/Manchester (1), Ryan Gosling (4), Tom Hanks (7), Miles Teller/Bleed for This (17) and Peter Simonischeck/Toni Erdmann (28).

Supporting Actress: Michelle Williams/Manchester (1), Naomie Harris/Moonlight (2), Laura Linney/Sully (21) and  Gretchen Mol/Manchester (26).

Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (1), Lucas Hedges/Manchester (2), Kyle Chandler/Manchester (7), Aaron Eckhardt/Bleed for This (10). Aaron Eckhardt/Sully (21), Jeremy Renner/Arrival (22), Forest Whitaker/Arrival (22), and John Legend/La La Land (33).

Here's the link for the latest complete odds from Gold Derby.


Additionally, let's look at the current predictions from Oscar experts; Sasha Stone of Awards Daily and Scott Feinberg form The Hollywood Reporter.

Here's Stone's current assessment:

Best Picture: La La Land (1), Manchester (3), Moonlight (6), Sully (7), Arrival (10).

Best Director: Chazelle/La La (1), Jenkins/Moonlight (5), Lonergan/Manchester (6), Villenueve/Arrival (8).

Best Actress: Emma Stone/La La (1), Amy Adams/Arrival (4), Rooney Mara/Una (10)

Best Actor: Casey Affleck/Manchester (1), Tom Hanks/Sully (5), Ryan Gosling/La La (8), Miles Teller/Bleed for This (10)

Best Supporting Actress: Naomie Harris/Moonlight (1), Michelle Williams/Manchester (2) , Janelle Monae/Moonlight (10)

Best Supporting Actor: Aaron Eckhardt/Bleed for This (2), Lucas Hedges/Manchester (5),
Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (6).

Best Original Screenplay: La La Land (1),  Manchester by the Sea (2)

Best Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight (1), Arrival (5), Sully (8)

If Stone were 100% right, Telluride films would win seven of the eight major categories.  That would be crazy.

Here's Stone's complete set of current predictions.

And from Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter:

Best Picture: La La Land (1), Moonlight (5), Manchester by the Sea (8)

Best Director: Chazelle/La La (1), Jenkins/Moonlight (4), Lonergan/Manchester (12), Eastwood/Sully (14)

Best Actress: Stone/La La (1)

Best Actor: Gosling/La La (2), Hanks/Sully (4), C. Affleck/Manchester (5), Teller/Bleed for This (10)

Best Supporting Actress:  Harris/Moonlight (1), Williams/Manchester (4)

Original Screenplay: La La (1), Moonlight (2)...should be in the Adapted category as it is based on a play but Feinberg says in the comments section that the designation apparently comes from the film's producers... Manchester (3)

Adapted Screenplay: Sully (10)

Here's Feinberg's current complete rundown.




TORONTO COMES TO A CLOSE

It didn't come as a surprise to me as Damien Chazelle's La La Land won The People's Choice/Audience Award at the Toronto International Film Festival yesterday.  If you read my post from Sept. 9th, you know that I wrote that I "wouldn't be surprised" were this to happen.

Here's coverage of the TIFF awards:

Indiewire

The Hollywood Reporter

Variety

Entertainment Weekly

Awards Daily

The Wrap

Also, Owen Glieberman and Peter DeBrudge at Variety named their Ten Best films of Toronto and they included films that played previously at TFF #43.  They were: Arrival, La La Land, Moonlight and Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer.

The complete Variety list is here.


THE MOONLIGHT CREW HAS A NEW PROJECT

In an absolute expression of "striking while the iron is hot" various outlets reported over the weekend that the group behind Barry Jenkins' Moonlight has acquired the rights to develop Colson Whitehead's recently released novel The Underground Railroad as a limited series.

No news was included concerning a time frame or an outlet for the series so we'll be looking forward to hearing about those items in the future.

Here's coverage of the announcement from:

Deadline.com

Indiewire

That's going to do it for this Monday.  Thursday's MTFB/FAC will have the first FAC of the season for four major Oscar categories: Picture, Director, Actress and Actor.  Until then,

Contact me at:

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT to the Blog itself.

The FAC Looks at the More Obscure Oscar Categories / Feinberg Forecast Update / Spotlight In Depth

It's Monday of Oscar week...


THE FAC LOOKS AT THE MORE OBSCURE OSCAR CATEGORIES

These eight categories are where serious Oscar prognosticators are separated from the mere hobbyists.  Categories like Sound Editing and Best Live Action Short really separate the wheat from the chaff in Oscar predicting world.

So here it is.  The FAC assessment of the lesser known Oscar categories.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood/Indiewire

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Mad Max: Fury Road

2) The Revenant

3) The 100 Year Old Man Who...

Comment:

The FAC has Mad Max:Fury Road as a solid but not prohibitive favorite.

COSTUMES

1) Mad Max: Fury Road

2) Carol

3) The Danish Girl

4) Cinderella

5) The Revenant

Comment:Max's lead is substantial but not insurmountable.  Carol could surprise.

SOUND EDITING

1) The Revenant

2) Mad Max: Fury Road

3) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

4) The Martian

5) Sicario

SOUND MIXING

1) The Revenant

2) Mad Max:Fury Road

3) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

4) The Martian

5) Bridge of Spies

Comment on the Sound categories:  In both cases, The Revenant lead is good but Mad Max is close enough in both categories to keep it interesting.

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Star Wars; The Force Awakens

2) The Revenant

3) Mad Max:Fury Road

4) The Martian

5) Ex Machina

Comment:  This is one of the closer categories in the entire list of 24 Oscar categories.  Star Wars is out front bu either The Revenant or Mad Max could win the trophy.

And now for the categories that really can make or break your Oscar office pool...The Shorts!

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Shok

2) Ave Maria

3) Day One

4) Stutterer

5) Everything Will Be Okay

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Claude Lanzman: Spectres of the Shoah

2) Body Team 12

3) Chau, Beyond the Lines

4) Last Day of Freedom

5) A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness

ANIMATED SHORT

1) World of Tomorrow

2) Sanjay's Super Team

3) Bear Story

4) We Can't Live Without Cosmos

5) Prologue

Comments about the Short categories:  Live Action: Shok's lead is strong but any of the next three films could pick up the prize.  Doc Short: Close battle between the top three.  Animated Short: Also a close fight between the top three.

THURSDAY'S POST WILL INCLUDE THE FINAL FAC FOR ALL 24 OSCAR CATEGORIES...

FEINBERG FORECAST UPDATE

One of the sources that I use for The Film Awards Clearinghouse analysis of the Oscar race is The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg.  Scott updated hos latest forecast for Oscar winners on Friday and you can check those here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/academy-awards-21916/

SPOTLIGHT IN DEPTH

Spotlight trailer via YouTube

Over the past few days I have collected a number of articles, profiles, interviews and posts about TFF #42 and six time Oscar nominated film Spotlight.  Those are all linked below:

http://www.bostonglobe.com/lifestyle/names/2015/10/30/how-spotlight-movie-got-made/wXVXUiYPkoF3hEP9K4dydP/story.html?event=event25

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/awards-chatter-podcast-tom-mccarthy-867386

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/02/19/spotlight-richard-jenkins-voice-god

http://www.scpr.org/programs/the-frame/2015/11/06/45132/michael-keaton-says-spotlight-takes-a-strong-stanc/

http://blog.afi.com/afi-grad-michael-rezendes-on-the-true-story-of-spotlight/#.Vsk5r4Cg4C8.twitter

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/02/18/spotlight-mark-ruffalo-dvd
More on Thursday...

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

Screen Actors Guild Awards: Another Oscar Re-shuffle? / Rooney Mara Talks Carol / Feinberg's Latest Forecast

Good Monday and welcome to February!  We're down to less than four weeks in this Oscar season and the Best Picture race took another turn over the weekend...


SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS: ANOTHER OSCAR RE-SHUFFLE?

The Screen Actors Guild Awards were handed out late Saturday night for both film and television work.  Tom McCarthy's Spotlight won the Best Ensemble Award besting The Big Short and possibly indicating a continuing tight battle for the Best Picture Oscar.  The Big Short was perceived by many Oscar experts as having pulled into a slight lead owing to its Producers Guild Award from last weekend.  A SAG win last for ensemble would have likely strengthened that view but the win for Spotlight has caused some re-evaluation yet again.

Add to all of this that the Directors Guild announces their award this coming weekend and it could very easily award neither McCarthy or The Big Short's Adam McKay.  Plausible cases can be made that any of the other DGA nominees might pick up the trophy: Inarritu/The Reverent, Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road or Scott/The Martian.  So, the DGA could provide a sign of clarity if either McKay or McCarthy should win, or confusion should any of those other three take the award.  Perhaps a Miller or Inarittu win get their films back near the top on the Best Picture speculation.  It'll be fun reading those tea leaves next Monday.

Meanwhile, in addition to Spotlight, other TFF #42 alumni picked up SAG Awards Saturday night as Brie Larson won Best Actress for Room and Idris Elba won Best Supporting Actor for Beasts of No Nation.

Non-TFF #42 winners were Leonardo DiCaprio for Best Actor for The Revenant and Alicia Vikander for Supporting Actress for The Danish Girl.  Mad Max:Fury Road picked up the award for Stunt Ensemble as it should have.

Honestly, for what's its worth, I still semi-believe Spotlight is going to win Best Picture on Oscar night.

I have linked complete coverage and analysis of The SAG results here from The Hollywood Reporter, The Film Stage, The Playlist and Deadline:


http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/sag-awards-spotlight-victory-confirms-860909

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/2016-sag-winners-complete-list-856945/item/outstanding-performance-by-a-female-846007

http://thefilmstage.com/news/spotlight-leonardo-dicaprio-and-brie-larson-lead-2016-sag-award-winners/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/sag-award-winners-spotlight-wins-best-ensemble-leonardo-dicaprio-idris-elba-brie-larson-are-also-winners-20160130

http://deadline.com/2016/01/sag-awards-analysis-a-big-night-for-netflix-diversity-repeat-winners-and-oscar-front-runners-hammond-1201693646/



ROONEY MARA TALKS CAROL

Best Supporting Actress nominee Rooney Mara talks about Carol in this half hour YouTube video proffered by The Weinstein Company last week.  Enjoy!

Rooney Mara on Carol via YouTube

FEINBERG'S LATEST FORECAST

The Hollywood Reporter's Oscar expert, Scott Feinberg posted his latest Oscar prognostications late last week and they came prior to Saturday night's SAG results.

Feinberg's analysis suggests that TFF #42 films are positioned thusly:

Best Pic: Spotlight trailing The Big Short and Room is in his #5 spot.

Director: McCarthy/Spotlight is #4 and Abrahamson/Room is #5

Actor: Fassbender/Steve Jobs is #5

Actress: Larson/Room at #1 and Rampling/45 Years at #3 and Blanchett/Carol at #4

Supporting Actor: Ruffalo/Spotlight at #2

Supporting Actress: Mara/Carol #3, McAdams/Spotlight at #4 and Winslet/Steve Jobs at #5

Adapted Screenplay: Room at #3, Carol at #5

Original Screenplay: Spotlight at #1

Animated Feature: Anomalisa is at #2
Documentary Feature: The Look of Silence is #4 and Winter on Fire is at #5
Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul at #1
Cinematography: Carol at #4
Costumes: Carol at #1
Film Editing: Spotlight at #5
Original Score: Carol at #4


If Scott is right TFF #42 films pick up four Oscars on Feb. 28.


Come back for more on Thursday!

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712