Oscar Predictions: Specialty Categories / Latest Gurus of Gold / Directors Interviews

Oscar nomination announcements are Tuesday!

OSCAR PREDICTIONS: SPECIALTY CATEGORIES

Here are my latest predictions for Oscar nominations in the specialty categories.  Telluride films are Bold.  All of these categories will have five nominees except Makeup/Hair which will have three.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Roma

2) A Star Is Born

3) First Man

4) Cold War

5) The Favourite

6) Black Panther

Possible: If Beale Street Could Talk

COSTUMES

1) The Favourite

2) Mary Poppins Returns

3) Black Panther

4) Mary Queen of Scots

5) Bohemian Rhapsody

6) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Possible: BlacKkKlansman Vice, If Beale Street Could Talk,  

FILM EDITING

1) A Star Is Born

2) Roma

3) Vice

4) BlacKkKlansman

5) First Man

6) The Favourite

Possible: Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Vice

2) Black Panther

3) Mary Queen of Scots

4) Bohemian Rhapsody

Possible: Border, Stan and Ollie, Suspiria

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) If Beale Street Could Talk

2) First Man

3) Mary Poppins Returns

4) Isle of Dogs

5) Black Panther

6) BlacKkKlansman

Possible: A Quiet Place, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Shallow/A Star Is Born

2) All the Stars/Black Panther

3) I'll Fight/RBG

4) Girl in the Movies/Dumplin'

5) Trip a Little Light Fantastic/Mary Poppins Returns

6) Where Lost Things Go/Mary Poppins Return

Possible: Revelation/Boy Erased

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Favourite

2) Mary Poppins Returns

3) First Man

4) Black Panther

5) Roma

6) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Possible: BlacKkKlansman

SOUND EDITING

1) First Man

2) A Quiet Place

3) Black Panther

4) Roma

5) Mary Poppins Returns

6) Ready Player One

Possible: A Star Is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, Annihilation

SOUND MIXING

1) A Star Is Born

2) First Man

3) Mary Poppins Returns

4) Roma

5) A Quiet Place

6) Black Panther

Possible: Bohemian Rhapsody

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) First Man

2) Black Panther

3) Ready Player One

4) Avengers: Infinity War

5) Mary Poppins Returns

6) Solo: A Star Wars Story

Possible: Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

I'll have my )mostly) final predictions on Monday for all Oscar categories.

LATEST GURUS OF GOLD

The upcoming Gurus of Gold post from Movie City News will focus on the Oscar acting categories and Best Picture.  Not sure exactly when it will go up.  Likely in the next day or two.  Jump on over to their site to check out last week's Gurus and a look from me and 12 other Oscar experts.  

Here's the link to MCN.

DIRECTORS INTERVIEWS

As we steer the ship toward Tuesday's Oscar nominations reveal, here's a look a three recent interviews from directors whose films played TFF #45 and are now a part of the awards conversation:

From The Hollywood Reporter, Roma's Alfonso Cuaron takes us on a tour of his the Mexico City that serves as a setting for the film:

From The New Yorker, Elaina Patton talks to Cold War director Pawel Pawlikowski.  Linked here.

And from The Playlist, Griffin Schiller talks to First Man director Damien Chazelle (and also a bit with actress Claire Foy).  That is linked here.

That's today's MTFB.  A reminder again that next Monday's regularly scheduled post I'll have (mostly) final Oscar predictions.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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My Last Oscar Predix for 2018 / Looking at Feinberg's Forecast / Directors' Takes

Welcome to the last day of 2018 and Happy New Year!

MY LAST OSCAR PREDIX FOR 2018

I'm closing out 2018 with a look at up-to-the-minute Oscar Predictions for the four most major categories: Picture, Direction, Actress and Actor.

Actual voting begins in a week and the nomination announcement is just three weeks away (Jan. 22).

My last publication in this space for these categories was back on Dec. 10th.

Each film's past position is listed in parentheses and TFF #45 films are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) A Star Is Born (1)
2) Roma (2)
3) BlacKkKlansman (6)
4) Green Book (3)
5) Black Panther (5)
6) The Favourite (4)
7) Vice (8)
8) If Beale Street Could Talk (7)
9) Bohemian Rhapsody (-)
10) First Man (-)

Other possibles: First Reformed, Mary Poppins Returns, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST DIRECTION

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Roma (1)
2) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born (2)
3) Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman (3)
4) Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite (5)
5) Peter Farrelly/Green Book (-)

Other possibles: Ryan Coogler/Black Panther, Adam McKay/Vice, Barry Jenkins/If Beale Street Could Talk, Damien Chazelle/First Man

BEST ACTRESS

1) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born (2)
2) Glenn Close/The Wife (1)
3) Olivia Colman/The Favourite (3)
4) Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me? (4)
5) Emily Blunt/Mary Poppins Returns (5)

Other possibles: Yalitza Aparicio/Roma, Nicole Kidman/Destroyer, Toni Collette/Hereditary

BEST ACTOR

1) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born (2)
2) Christian Bale/Vice (1)
3) Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody (5)
4) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book (3)
5) Ethan Hawke/First Reformed (4)

Other possibles: John David Washington/BlacKkKlansman, Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate, Ryan Gosling/First Man


LOOKING AT FEINBERG'S FORECAST

Scott Feinberg, who is the awards genius at The Hollywood Reporter recently posted his end-of-the-year take on the Oscar season for all 24 Oscar categories.  Here's how Scott assesses the Oscar fates of TFF #45 films assuming 10 Best Picture nominees:

First Man (8): Best Picture, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects.

Roma (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Aparicio), Original Screenplay, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography, Production Design

The Favourite (7): Best Picture, Actress (Colman), Supporting Actress (Stone and Weisz), Original Screenplay, Costumes, Production Design

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3): Actress (McCarthy), Supporting Actor (Grant), Adapted Screenplay

Cold War (2): Foreign Language Film, Cinematography

Single nominations for:
Boy Erased- Supporting Actress (Kidman)
Shoplifters-Foreign Language Film
Free Solo-Documentary Feature
Border-Makeup/Hair
Caroline-Live Action Short
Fauve-Live Action Short

That's a total of 33 predicted nominations for TFF #45.

The complete set of Feinberg's Forecast at The Hollywood Reporter is linked here.


DIRECTORS' TAKES

Continuing my recent trend of linking interviews and profiles of artists from TFF #45 films that are being spotlighted this awards season...

Cold War's Pawel Pawlikowski from Indiewire

Destroyer's Karyn Kusama from Deadline



That's your last MTFB for 2018.  More to come in 2019.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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The Latest from Gold Derby / Interviews

Welcome to the Lull...that week between Christmas and New Years...

THE LATEST FROM GOLD DERBY

It's not a secret that I have been really pleased to be included as an "Oscar Guru" for MOvie City News' Gurus o' Gold this Oscar season but I'd also be silly to ignore the Oscarologists compendium that is Gold Derby.  So, I'm not.

I took a look at their latest collective predictions and this is where there set of pros have Telluride films situated in their prognostications as 2018 comes to a close.

I am assuming nine films make the Best Picture field;

Leading the way for TFF #45 films in Gold Derby's estimation are both The Favourite and First Man.  Both films are pegged fro 10 nominations.  Roma is close behind with a projected eight nominations.

The Favourite is predicted for: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress (for both Stone and Weisz), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Film Editing and Production Design.

The Derby has First Man predicted for: Best Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects.

Roma is picked for: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Sound Editing and Foreign Language Film.

Can You Ever Forgive Me? is named thrice: Actress, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay.

Single nominations are predicted for:

Free Solo: Best Documentary Feature
Cold War: Best Foreign Language Film
Shoplifters: Best Foreign Language Film
Caroline: Best Live Action Short

That's a total of 35 predicted nominations for TFF #45 films.

Additionally, First Reformed from TFF #44 is predicted to earn nominations for Best Actor and Best Original Screenplay.

The complete latest Gold Derby odds are linked here.


INTERVIEWS

Damien Chazelle/First Man with SoundworksCollection.com

Olivia Colman, Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz/The Favourite with The Hollywood Reporter

Pawel Pawlikowski/Cold War with Vox

Alfonso Cuaron et. al./Roma with Indiewire


Thanks for reading.  More on Monday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

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The Second Telluride Film Festival-1975 / Cold War Trailer / Wells Thinks We'll See The Other Side

Welcome back from the weekend...

THE SECOND TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL-1975

Here's the penultimate addition to the ongoing look back at the history of the Telluride Film Festival.  

The second Telluride Film Festival took place on Aug. 29-Sept. 1, 1975 with the following:

Tributes: Jack Nicholson. Werner Herzog and Henry King

SHOWS:

Ace Up My Sleeve

Aguirre, Wrath of God

Alexander's Ragtime Bad

Carnal Knowledge

The Cockfighter

Drive, He Said

Dupont Lajoie

Easy Rider

Even Dwarfs Started Small

Every Man for Himself and God Against All

Fata Morgana

Five Easy Pieces

Funny Face

Garden of Allah

General Idi Amin Dada

The Gunfighter

Happiness

Hester Street

Jesse James

Karl May

King of Marvin Gardens

The Last Detail

Leap Year

Legacy

Les Ordres

The Man Who Skied Down Everest

Man, Woman and Sin

Ride in the Whirlwind

Song of Bernadette

State Fair

Sweethearts

Taking Off

Tol'able David

Trail of the Lonesome Pine

12 O'Clock High

The White Moth

White Sister

Guests:

Shelley Duvall

Louise Fletcher

Milos Forman

Monte Hellman

Buck Henry

Anjelica Huston

Carol Kane

Mary Kay Place

Joan Silver

It's crazy how many of Jack Nicholson's films they programmed to coincide with his tribute: Carnal Knowledge, Drive He Said, Easy Rider, Five Easy Pieces, King of Marvin Gardens, The Last Detail and Ride in the Whirlwind.

Here's what's even crazier...Jack, Louise Fletcher and Milos Forman were all in town and there's no record of any screening of One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest which would open on Nov. 19th of that year.

COLD WAR TRAILER

Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War made a splash at Cannes.  The film won Pawlikowski the Best Director prize there.

This weekend we saw the release of a trailer for the U.K.  Here it is from YouTube:

Linked here are stories about the film and its trailer release from The Playlist and The Film Stage.  A note that the August release date is for Great Britain not the U.S. which still leaves the door open for a play at Telluride.  Its distribution from Amazon Studios suggests that there's chance that it could play The SHOW.

WELLS THINKS WE'LL SEE THE OTHER SIDE

Jeff Wells posted a piece at his Hollywood Elsewhere site over the weekend assessing/analyzing the fall fest fortunes of Orson Welles' The Other Side of the Wind.

Over the past few days, the film has emerged as a popular guess as the possible opener for the Venice Fest.

Wells says he has heard a rumor to that effect but he is also relatively confident that regardless of its Venice status that we'll find it on the play list for TFF #45.

The complete Wells piece is here.

That's your MTFB for this Monday.  More tomorrow.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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