MY LAST OSCAR PREDIX FOR 2018
I'm closing out 2018 with a look at up-to-the-minute Oscar Predictions for the four most major categories: Picture, Direction, Actress and Actor.
Actual voting begins in a week and the nomination announcement is just three weeks away (Jan. 22).
My last publication in this space for these categories was back on Dec. 10th.
Each film's past position is listed in parentheses and TFF #45 films are Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) A Star Is Born (1)
2) Roma (2)
3) BlacKkKlansman (6)
4) Green Book (3)
5) Black Panther (5)
6) The Favourite (4)
7) Vice (8)
8) If Beale Street Could Talk (7)
9) Bohemian Rhapsody (-)
10) First Man (-)
Other possibles: First Reformed, Mary Poppins Returns, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
BEST DIRECTION
1) Alfonso Cuaron/Roma (1)
2) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born (2)
3) Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman (3)
4) Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite (5)
5) Peter Farrelly/Green Book (-)
Other possibles: Ryan Coogler/Black Panther, Adam McKay/Vice, Barry Jenkins/If Beale Street Could Talk, Damien Chazelle/First Man
BEST ACTRESS
1) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born (2)
2) Glenn Close/The Wife (1)
3) Olivia Colman/The Favourite (3)
4) Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me? (4)
5) Emily Blunt/Mary Poppins Returns (5)
Other possibles: Yalitza Aparicio/Roma, Nicole Kidman/Destroyer, Toni Collette/Hereditary
BEST ACTOR
1) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born (2)
2) Christian Bale/Vice (1)
3) Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody (5)
4) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book (3)
5) Ethan Hawke/First Reformed (4)
Other possibles: John David Washington/BlacKkKlansman, Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate, Ryan Gosling/First Man
LOOKING AT FEINBERG'S FORECAST
Scott Feinberg, who is the awards genius at The Hollywood Reporter recently posted his end-of-the-year take on the Oscar season for all 24 Oscar categories. Here's how Scott assesses the Oscar fates of TFF #45 films assuming 10 Best Picture nominees:
First Man (8): Best Picture, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects.
Roma (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Aparicio), Original Screenplay, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography, Production Design
The Favourite (7): Best Picture, Actress (Colman), Supporting Actress (Stone and Weisz), Original Screenplay, Costumes, Production Design
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3): Actress (McCarthy), Supporting Actor (Grant), Adapted Screenplay
Cold War (2): Foreign Language Film, Cinematography
Single nominations for:
Boy Erased- Supporting Actress (Kidman)
Shoplifters-Foreign Language Film
Free Solo-Documentary Feature
Border-Makeup/Hair
Caroline-Live Action Short
Fauve-Live Action Short
That's a total of 33 predicted nominations for TFF #45.
The complete set of Feinberg's Forecast at The Hollywood Reporter is linked here.
DIRECTORS' TAKES
Continuing my recent trend of linking interviews and profiles of artists from TFF #45 films that are being spotlighted this awards season...
Cold War's Pawel Pawlikowski from Indiewire
Destroyer's Karyn Kusama from Deadline
That's your last MTFB for 2018. More to come in 2019.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
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