BIG CRITICS GROUPS AND OSCAR IN 2018
I did this last year at the same time. That is to say that I collated results about where films stand in critical eyes as we approach the end of the year.
I look at what we've been told by nominations or awards from The Golden Globes (GG), Critics Choice Awards (BFCA), National Board of Review (NBR), American Film Institute (AFI), New York Film Critics Circle (NY) and Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LA), Screen Actors Guild (SAG).
Last year the list looked like this:
10) The Disaster Artist (NBR, GG)
7) The Florida Project (NBR, BFCA, AFI)
7) The Big Sick (BFCA, AFI, SAG)
7) The Shape of Water (BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) The Post (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Dunkirk (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
2) Call Me By Your Name (NBR, LA, BFCA, GG, AFI)
2) Get Out (NBR, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
1) Lady Bird (NBR, NY, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
So it included TFF #44 films Lady Bird, and The Shape of Water. It also included eventual Oscar Best Picture winner, The Shape of Water. and nominees Lady Bird, Three Billboards, Dunkirk, The Post, Get Out, Call Me By Your Name and Dunkirk. So, the top seven got in with the additions, of TFF #44 film Darkest Hour and also Phantom Thread.
With that in mind, here's what the data from the same seven groups tells us in 2018:
9) Six films tied here with two mentions each: Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, Eighth Grade, First Reformed, A Quiet Place and Vice.
7) Mary Poppins Returns (3): NBR, AFI, BFCA
7) The Favourite (3): GG, AFI, BFCA
4) If Beale Street Could Talk (4): NBR, GG, AFI, BFCA
4) Green Book (4): NBR (best picture), GG, AFI, BFCA
4) BlacKkKlansman (4): GG, AFI, SAG, BFCA
1) A Star Is Born (5): NBR, GG, AFI, SAG, BFCA
1) Roma (5): NBR, NY, LA, AFI (special citation), BFCA
1) Black Panther (5): NBR, GG, AFI, SAG, BFCA
With single mentions: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Can You Ever Forgive Me? and First Man.
Based on last year, if you're film is sitting at #7 or above, it's got a great chance to be Oscar nominated for Best Picture on the morning of Jan. 22nd.
COLD WAR DOMINATES THE EFA
The European Film Awards were passed out Saturday and TFF #45 film Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War dominated the field picking up five wins including Best European Film. The film's female lead, Joanna Kulig, was named Best Actress and Pawlikowski won for Best Direction and Screenwriting. The film also won for Best Editing.
In other TFF #45 EFA news, Matteo Garrone's Dogman did well too with wins for Best Actor (Marcello Fonte), Costume Design and Hair/Makeup.
Lukas Dhont's Girl was named winner for European Discovery and Ali Abassi's Border won the award for visual effects.
Linked here is the press release from the EFA.
SHORT LISTS LAND TODAY
Steve Pond of The Wrap reports that the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announces all of their short lists for a variety of categories today.
That's a departure from the past when the categories that include the "short list" process have traditionally parcelled those announcements over a period of weeks but that won't be the process this year.
Pond tells us that will mean nine different categories will be trimmed to definitive lists by this afternoon.
Here are those categories and the number that they will be trimmed to:
Foreign Language Film (9)
Documentary Feature (15)
Original Song (15)
Original Score (15)
Makeup/Hair (7...probably)
Visual Effects (10)
Documentary Short (10)
Animated Short (10)
Live Action Short (10)
Pond also takes a look at what he thinks are the most likely inclusions and exclusions in his article which you can find linked here.
I'll have a look at how the short lists all shake out vis-a-vis Telluride in Thursday's regularly scheduled post.
That's the Monday MTFB. I'll be back with more on Thursday.
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