Big Critics Groups and Oscar in 2018 / Cold War Dominates the EFA / Oscar Short Lists Land Today

It is a Monday!  Time for some MTFB...


BIG CRITICS GROUPS AND OSCAR IN 2018

I did this last year at the same time.  That is to say that I collated results about where films stand in critical eyes as we approach the end of the year.

I look at what we've been told by nominations or awards from The Golden Globes (GG), Critics Choice Awards (BFCA), National Board of Review (NBR), American Film Institute (AFI), New York Film Critics Circle (NY) and Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LA), Screen Actors Guild (SAG).

Last year the list looked like this:

10) The Disaster Artist (NBR, GG)
7) The Florida Project (NBR, BFCA, AFI)
7) The Big Sick (BFCA, AFI, SAG)
7) The Shape of Water (BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) The Post (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Dunkirk (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
2) Call Me By Your Name (NBR, LA, BFCA, GG, AFI)
2) Get Out (NBR, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
1) Lady Bird (NBR, NY, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)

So it included TFF #44 films Lady Bird, and The Shape of Water.  It also included eventual Oscar Best Picture winner, The Shape of Water. and nominees Lady Bird, Three Billboards, Dunkirk, The Post, Get Out, Call Me By Your Name and Dunkirk.  So, the top seven got in with the additions, of TFF #44 film Darkest Hour and also Phantom Thread.

With that in mind, here's what the data from the same seven groups tells us in 2018:

9) Six films tied here with two mentions each: Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, Eighth Grade, First Reformed, A Quiet Place and Vice.

7) Mary Poppins Returns (3): NBR, AFI, BFCA
7) The Favourite (3): GG, AFI, BFCA
4) If Beale Street Could Talk (4): NBR, GG, AFI, BFCA
4) Green Book (4): NBR (best picture), GG, AFI, BFCA
4) BlacKkKlansman (4): GG, AFI, SAG, BFCA
1) A Star Is Born (5): NBR, GG, AFI, SAG, BFCA
1) Roma (5): NBR, NY, LA, AFI (special citation), BFCA
1) Black Panther (5): NBR, GG, AFI, SAG, BFCA

With single mentions: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Can You Ever Forgive Me? and First Man.

Based on last year, if you're film is sitting at #7 or above, it's got a great chance to be Oscar nominated for Best Picture on the morning of Jan. 22nd.


COLD WAR DOMINATES THE EFA

The European Film Awards were passed out Saturday and TFF #45 film Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War dominated the field picking up five wins including Best European Film.  The film's female lead, Joanna Kulig, was named Best Actress and Pawlikowski won for Best Direction and Screenwriting.  The film also won for Best Editing. 

In other TFF #45 EFA news, Matteo Garrone's Dogman did well too with wins for Best Actor (Marcello Fonte), Costume Design and Hair/Makeup.

Lukas Dhont's Girl was named winner for European Discovery and Ali Abassi's Border won the award for visual effects.

Linked here is the press release from the EFA.


SHORT LISTS LAND TODAY

Steve Pond of The Wrap reports that the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announces all of their short lists for a variety of categories today.

That's a departure from the past when the categories that include the "short list" process have traditionally parcelled those announcements over a period of weeks but that won't be the process this year.

Pond tells us that will mean nine different categories will be trimmed to definitive lists by this afternoon. 

Here are those categories and the number that they will be trimmed to:

Foreign Language Film (9)
Documentary Feature (15)
Original Song (15)
Original Score (15)
Makeup/Hair (7...probably)
Visual Effects (10)
Documentary Short (10)
Animated Short (10)
Live Action Short (10)

Pond also takes a look at what he thinks are the most likely inclusions and exclusions in his article which you can find linked here.

I'll have a look at how the short lists all shake out vis-a-vis Telluride in Thursday's regularly scheduled post.


That's the Monday MTFB.  I'll be back with more on Thursday.

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Redford's Retirement? / Awards Daily's Weekly View / Beale Trailer

Good Monday to everyone and all the ships at sea...


REDFORD'S RETIREMENT?

Robert Redford has been clear and upfront over the past couple of months that The Old Man and the Gun would be his last acting job in film but this past weekend, with the public premiere of the film occurring, the Oscar winning director was singing a slightly different tune.

Elizabeth Wagmeister writing for Variety, reports that Redford has backed off the definitive claim about the conclusion of his acting career.  The 82 year old star is quoted in the story as responding to questions about his retirement with "I should never have said that".  The story goes on to reveal that Redford feels that all the reaction to his announcement has detracted from the film itself.  To that end, he has dialed back on the "last film" rhetoric.

On the other hand, he certainly doesn't sound like he's got acting plans in his immediate future.

The article and video can be found here from Variety


AWARDS DAILY'S WEEKLY VIEW

I checked in to Sasha Stone's updated Oscar predictions which she which she posts each week as a "Predictions Friday" column.  This week, Sasha predicts many more categories than she has up to now.

Here are some Telluride-centric takeaways from her crystal ball:

She currently has Damien Chazelle's First Man leading the way for TFF films with 11 predicted nominations.  It also appears that, if Sasha were 100% correct, First Man would likely lead all nominees (she has Bradley Cooper's A Star Is Born with between 8-10).

First Man nominations according to Stone: Best Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing, Cinematography, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Original Score.  She also says that it could have a shot with Jason Clarke for Supporting Actor (listed in her "Contender" section for that category.  Frankly, that's a potential nomination that I'll probably be cheering on.

The Favourite has between 7-9 nominations largely depending on which actresses get categorized where and then how many of the triumvirate of Colman, Stone and Weisz  make the final Oscar lineup.  Stone is currently listing Colman as a "Contender" for Best Actress rather than a predicted nominee.  In addition to the women, Stone suggests noms for Best Picture, Cinematography, Original Screenplay, Production Design and Costumes.  Stone also lists director Yorgos Lanthimos in the "Contender" section.

Roma lands six nominations: Best Picture, Direction, Cinematography, Editing, Original Screenplay and Production Design.  It also is listed as contending for Best Actress and Supporting Actress.

Marielle Heller's Can You Ever Forgive Me? is listed for four nominations: Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay.  Heller is also listed as contending for Direction.

Four films would receive a single nomination: Boy Erased for Supporting Actress and three feature documentaries: Free Solo, Watergate and Reversing Roe.

Also noted, a predicted nomination for TFF#44 film First Reformed for Best Original Screenplay.

Among other films Stone lists among her "Contenders", the leader of the "outside looking in" club is Jason Reitman's The Front Runner which Stone lists with no nominations but as a contender for six: Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Direction, Cinematography and Adapted Screenplay.

Boy Erased is listed as a contender for Actor, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay.

The Old Man and the Gun contends for Best Actor.

White Boy Rick contends for Best Actor.

Destroyer contends for Best Actress.

And TFF #44 First Reformed also contends for Best Picture and Best Actor.

Sasha's complete set of predictions are here.



BEALE TRAILER


Yeah, yeah...I know.  If Beale Street Could Talk didn't play The SHOW but I can't help myself, Barry Jenkins will always be a part of my Telluride-view.  So, here's the new trailer from Beale Street via YouTube and Movieclips:

That's a wrap for this Monday.  More to come on Thursday.

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Ten (Plus) Bets #6 for TFF #45 / L.A. Fest Reveals Another Possible Film / Girl Has a Trailer /And Speaking of Trailers

It's the first Friday in August!  In four weeks the 45th Telluride Film Festival will begin.

TEN (PLUS) BETS #6 FOR TFF #45

Not much changing among the top ten bets but I am expanding this week to 15 titles plus films that are still potential players.

Last week's Ten Bets:

1) Roma
2) First Man
3) The Old Man and the Gun
4) Cold War
5) The Front Runner
6) Dogman
7) Shoplifters
8) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
9) Non Fiction
10) The Favourite


This week's Ten (Plus) Bets

1) First Man
2) Roma
3) The Old Man and the Gun
4) The Front Runner
5) Cold War
6) Dogman
7) Shoplifters
8) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
9) Non Fiction
10) The Favourite
11) Peterloo
12) White Boy Rick
13) The Other Side of the Wind
14) Border
15) Girl



The Man Who Killed Don Quixote, The Eyes of Orson Welles, On the Basis of Sex, Happy as Lazzaro,  He Dreams of Giants, Cheney (Backseat), Nothing Like a Dame, Mid 90s, Mary Queen of Scots, Boy Erased, American Dharma, 22 July

We definitely should gain more insight next week with additional announcements from Toronto plus New York's lineup and a schedule from Venice.



L.A. FILM FEST REVEALS ANOTHER POSSIBLE FILM

Within the last week we had announcements from the Los Angeles Film Fest, which has a new date as well as the first wave announcement from Fantastic Fest.  I can't divine any real addition or elimination from the FF announcement but it appears that Cannes Un Certain Regard winner Border is probable for Telluride.

The LAFF list tells us that Border will be a "California" Premiere leading me to believe that it will have played somewhere in the U.S. prior to its screening in L.A. 2-3 weeks after T-ride.  Thusly, Telluride seems like a good bet to screen the film from director Ali Abassi.  Neon is distributing the film in the U.S.  Neon distributed Errol Morris' The B Side: Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography in 2016 which played TFF #43.

Here's coverage of the Los Angeles announcement from Deadline and Variety.


GIRL HAS A TRAILER

Netflix has released the first international trailer for Lukas Dhont's Girl.  The film was very well received as a part of Cannes' Un Certain Regard section and won a series of awards related to that screening including UCR Best Actor for lead Victor Polster.

Here's the video from YouTube:

Netflix hasn't announced a date for release in the U.S. as yet.

I have linked coverage of  the trailer release from FirstShowing.


AND SPEAKING OF TRAILERS


I know.  I know.  Barry Jenkins' If Beale Street Could Talk is destined to screen for the first time in Toronto but when I saw this tweet this morning:

Well, I just had to take a look and if you're so inclined as well...

Trailer via YouTube

Makes me sad all over again that TFF #45 won't be screening this.

That's your wrap on MTFB for this week.  I'll have more on Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Announcements the Next Two Days / Venice- Additional Rumors / Predicting Toronto

Welcome to Monday...big week ahead!


ANNOUNCEMENTS THE NEXT TWO DAYS...

The Toronto International Film Festival begins to announce its 2018 lineup tomorrow.  It'll be the biggest set of clues and hints about what could be chosen for The SHOW of the entire summer.  The key is to look at the premiere status for a film.

A film listed as a World or North American Premiere means, unless there is some sort of unanticipated change, those films will not make an appearance at Telluride.  A Canadian Premiere designation almost guarantees a T-ride play unless it is a film that has played at Sundance.

An International Premiere designation is murkier and usually requires some digging and even then it can be difficult to pin its meaning down definitively.

Then on Wednesday, Venice will announce the bulk of its lineup.  As I have written before, the key about Venice is often when a film is scheduled and we probably won't know that for a few weeks.  Premiere status for Venice can tell us some things if a film is not listed as a World Premiere.

Meanwhile, we expect announcements from both New York and Fantastic Fest in the next couple of weeks or so.

Come on back here to MTFB for the latest news and analysis as we try to piece together a lineup for Telluride.

I would point out that over the past five years the MTFB success rate by the time we get to the end of the summer has been 91/95 or 96%.


VENICE - ADDITIONAL RUMORS

Last Friday we had a look at rumored titles that might be named later this week as films that would play Venice.  Why is that important?  The Venice-Telluride connection has become an increasingly relevant statistic.

Last year the two fests shared eight films.  Some played early in the Venice lineup and then moved to Telluride.  Some films played Telluride first and then moved to Venice.

The Twitterverse added fuel to the fire this weekend with increased speculation about films that could be announced that may also play T-ride including Laszlo Nemes Sunset, Jacques Audiard's The Sisters Brothers, Olivier Assassyas' Non Fiction, Mike Leigh's Peterloo, Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite, Julian Schnabel's At Eternity's Gate and the Coen Brothers six part mini-series for Netflix, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs:

Now, if the Coen's Buster Scruggs somehow makes the Telluride lineup...




PREDICTING TORONTO

Barry Hertz writing for The Globe and Mail took a weekend stab at predicting some of the buzziest titles that could be announced tomorrow for the 2018 edition of the Toronto International Film Festival.

In the lengthy article he names several films that are also on the MTFB watch list for TFF #45   For example:

The Death and Life of John F. Donovan
The Sisters Brothers
Widows
Mary Queen of Scots
Boy Erased
A Star Is Born
On the Basis of Sex
The Front Runner
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
The Other Side of the Wind
Everybody Knows
Ash Is the Purest White
Burning
Shoplifters


It's worth noting that TFF and TIFF often share as many as 20 or more titles.

The complete article from Hertz is linked here.

Meanwhile, Peter Howell, critic for The Toronto Star in a series of tweets has predicted these six films for TIFF:

If Beale Street COuld Talk
First Man
Burning
Capernaum
Mary Queen of Scots
Cold War


That's MTFB for this Monday.  More tomorrow.  I may even have a special late post that includes some of the news from Toronto.



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Ten Bets #4 for TFF #45 / Venice Speculation and Telluride / A Star Is Born Could Be Off the Table / And Where Is the Poster???

It's the last Friday before announcements from Toronto and Venice...tick...tick...tick...

TEN BETS FOR TFF #45

Here's the fourth installment of MTFB's Ten Best for TFF #45.  It's the last one that happens this year before announcements from major film fests that will give us some solid evidence about what we can expect to see over Labor Day weekend.

Last week's Ten Bets were:

1) If Beale Street Could Talk
2) The Other Side of the Wind
3) Capernaum
4) Beautiful Boy
5) Cold War
6) The Old Man and the Gun
7) Widows
8) Boy Erased
9) Roma
10) The Front Runner


The latest Ten Bets:

1) If Beale Street Could Talk
2) The Other Side of the Wind
3) Capernaum
4) Roma
5) Widows
6) Cold War
7) Beautiful Boy
8) The Old Man and the Gun
9) Boy Erased
10) First Man

Other films in the hunt:

Sunset, The Sisters Brothers, The Man Who Killed Don Quixote, The Eyes of Orson Welles, Dogman, On the Basis of Sex, Girl, Happy as Lazzaro, Shoplifters, He Dreams of Giants, The Front Runner, A Star Is Born, Cheney (Backseat), At Eternity's Gate, Everybody Knows, Nothing Like a Dame, The Favourite, Peterloo, Burning

This week's Ten Bets has been influenced by news of the positioning of Steve McQueen's Widows for the London Fest, First Man for Venice and Roma for New York. 


VENICE SPECULATION AND TELLURIDE

The Venice Film Fest will announce the bulk of its lineup on Wednesday next week.  With the Venice announcement requires us to pay attention next week and also later.  What I mean is that the premiere status about a film in the Venice announcement has limited value.  Of greater interest is the placement of a film in the Venice schedule which we won't find out for a few weeks yet.  Films scheduled the first or last three days can often make a Telluride appearance either before or after a Telluride play.  Still, we may be able to eliminate some films and keep others in consideration for TFF based on what we see from Italy.

Variety posted a big Venice prediction piece yesterday.  The article claims that Venice will program the following films of Telluride interest:

The aforementioned First Man (opener), The Sisters Brothers, Beautiful Boy, Roma, The Favourite and Peterloo.  A couple of other notes: Paul Greengrass' Norway is set for Venice per the Variety post which means we should probably take it seriously as a TFF possibility.  Variety also reports that A Star Is Born is likely but not a lock for Venice.  More on A Star Is Born below.

The last piece of news from all of this is reporting that both Barry Jenkins If Beale Street Could Talk and Joel Edgerton's Boy Erased will NOT play Venice.  In the case of Beale Street, that news almost assuredly means that the film will have its first screening in T-ride.  In as far as Boy Erased is concerned, the lack of a Venice play could indicate that it premieres at Telluride, Toronto, New York, L.A., London or AFI.  I think Telluride is the most likely but it's not clinched by any means.


The complete Variety piece is linked here.




A STAR IS BORN COULD BE OFF THE TABLE

Amidst the Venice speculation is the note that Bradley Cooper's A Star Is Born will probably screen in Venice out of competition.  Both Indiewire and Deadline reported yesterday that the film is expected to premiere in Venice on Friday, Aug. 31st.  That date doesn't preclude a Telluride play but it's at the outer limit of Venice's opening period of time to still allow a play at Telluride.

More telling about A Star Is Born's future is Deadline's report that it is expected to have its North American premiere at Toronto which would mean that it will bypass T-ride.  It's not definitive but it seems close.

Other notes from the Deadline story are claims that both Roma and The Other Side of the Wind will play TFF #45 and there is an implication that Alfonso Cuaron may be a tribute recipient.

The Deadline article is here.

The Indiewire reporting is here.


AND WHERE IS THE POSTER???

For the second year running, we are deep into the summer and have no official poster release for TFF #45...What up?


That's your MTFB for this Friday.  More to come Monday...and a lot more to come next week.  Have a great weekend!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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TFF #45 Ten Bets #3 / Trailer for Mary Queen of Scots / More on Widows in London / Another Note About Acquisitions

Good Friday fellow film fans...


TFF #45 TEN BETS #3

Here's the third installment of the summer's Ten Bets for TFF #45, an ongoing assessment of the films that I feel are the most likely to make the Telluride lineup.

Last week's Ten Bets were:

1) If Beale Street Could Talk
2) The Other Side of the Wind
3) Cold War
4) Capernaum
5) Beautiful Boy
6) Burning
7) Boy Erased
8) Peterloo
9) The Old Man and the Gun
10) The Front Runner

This week's list:

1) If Beale Street Could Talk
2) The Other Side of the Wind
3) Capernaum
4) Beautiful Boy
5) Cold War
6) The Old Man and the Gun
7) Widows
8) Boy Erased
9) Roma
10) The Front Runner


Other films in the hunt:

Sunset, The Sisters Brothers, The Man Who Killed Don Quixote, The Eyes of Orson Welles, Dogman, On the Basis of Sex, Girl, Happy as Lazzaro, Shoplifters, He Dreams of Giants, First Man, A Star Is Born, Cheney (Backseat), At Eternity's Gate, Everybody Knows, Nothing Like a Dame, The Favourite, Peterloo, Burning

TRAILER FOR MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS

As promised, we got a trailer release yesterday for Josie Rourke's Mary Queen of Scots which stars Saoirse Ronan and Margot Robbie locked in a tussle for the English crown.  The film is being distributed by Focus Features and is slated for U.S. release on Dec. 7th.

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

And I have linked coverage here from:

Variety

Indiewire

SlashFilm

Awards Daily

FirstShowing

MORE ON WIDOWS IN LONDON

The BFI-London Film Fest dropped a huge announcement yesterday (covered in my post from yesterday) that Steve McQueen's Widows, starring Viola Davis and Colin Farrell, will open their festival on Oct. 10th.

Of immediate interest to Telluride fans was the published designation of the film's status for that screening as its International Premiere.  My understanding of that designation is that it means that the BFI-London screening will be the film's first outside of its nation of origin.

There was some back and forth yesterday in some online circles about whether that means a Telluride play, a Toronto play or both.

If the "IP" designation means what I think it means, a Telluride play is happening with no Toronto (also no Venice).  But as a friend emailed me yesterday when the news was breaking..."International premiere-but who knows what that means anymore?"  So, you know, the point there is that the term may be more flexible than it used to be.

All of that plus McQueen's track record with Telluride, was enough for me to place Widows on my Ten Bets list this week (for the first time) at #7.  

Here's linked coverage of the BFI-London announcement from yesterday:

The Guardian (which specifically suggests Telluride is possible)

Variety

The Hollywood Reporter

Indiewire

Deadline

ANOTHER NOTE ABOUT ACQUISITIONS

I mentioned yesterday that Magnolia Pictures hadn't had a film at TFF since 2015.  Eagle-eyed friend of the blog Kenny Miles messaged me with the info that Magnolia partnered with Amazon on Ai WeiWei's documentary Human Flow last year.  Thanks to Kenny for the info!

That's wrap for this week on MTFB.  More to come on Monday...from...somewhere in Colorado...

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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First Signs of Beale Street / The Usual Suspects -Part One 2018 / The Favourite Teaser Appears

Welcome to Tuesday, July 10, 2018...


THE FIRST SIGNS OF BEALE STREET

Stefan James, Kiki Layne, Regina King and Barry Jenkins at Essence Fest

One of the most hotly anticipated titles of the fall has to be Oscar winner Barry Jenkins' If Beale Street Could Talk.  The film is the writer/director's follow up to the thrice Oscar winning Moonlight.  It's an adaptation of the James Baldwin novel of the same name.

That alone would be enough to pique the interest of Telluriders but adding fuel to the fire has been the relative quiet surrounding the film.

There is a good deal of speculation that it will play Venice and I have had it at the number one spot on this summer's first Ten Bets lists for TFF #45.  We also know that its one of the films that Annapuna Pictures is distributing this fall...as Megan Ellison's production company adds distribution to its list of services.  Other films in their lineup include: Backseat, The Sisters Brothers and Destroyer.

All that to get to the story that Jenkins and some of the actors in the film: Regina King, Stephan James and Kiki Layne, were featured in a Q+A about the film at New Orleans' Essence Fest this past weekend.

Here's the 14 minute interview from YouTube:

I found the interview via a story from Awards Watch and that story is linked here.

More coverage is here from BlackFilm.com and also from Hollywood Elsewhere.

If Beale Street Could Talk is not yet scheduled for release in the United States.

THE USUAL SUSPECTS-PART ONE 2018

If Beale Street Could Talk director and TFF Usual Suspect Barry Jenkins

There are a number of people that have, over the years have become frequent players at Telluride.They're folks that may not always be there and even if they are there, they don't always have a project that screens at the fest but often times you can predict some of the choices for the fest based on The Usual Suspects and what they do have to offer.

For example...Barry Jenkins...who has been a part of the fest in a variety of ways for a decade and a half.  That's why his If Beale Street Could Talk is at the top of the Ten Bets list.

Steve McQueen-His Hunger, Shame and Oscar winner 12 Years a Slave all screened at Telluride which leads one to think that Widows is a good bet.  I've been holding back on putting it in the Ten Bets because the film's description seems less Telluride-y than McQueen's previous efforts.  Still, it wouldn't surprise if it were to screen at T-ride.

Jacques Audiard-Audiard has been represented thrice at TFF 1996- A Self Made Hero, 2009-A Prophet and 2012-Rust and Bone.  However his Palme D'or winning Dheepan wasn't at The SHOW in 2015.  His The Sisters Brothers could get him back to the San Juans.

Alejandro Inarritu is a great example of a "usual suspect" who attends even when he doesn't have a project.  That happened last year when he was in town to support his amigo Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water.  I suspect that could happen again this year for Alfonso Cuaron's Roma.  Cuaron, himself would become a "usual suspect" this year if Roma plays.  I think that could happen.

Jason Reitman- At one point Reitman was a sure TFF bet as he ran off a series of SHOW entrants: Juno (07), Up in the Air (09) and Labor Day (13) but Young Adult and Men, Women and Children which might have played The SHOW did not.  Reitman could return this year with The Frontrunner.  There's a decent chance that could happen.

I'll look at more of  "The Usual Suspects on Thursday.

THE FAVOURITE TEASER APPEARS

Yorgos Lanthimos has made a big splash on the art house circuit over the past few years with The Lobster and The Killing of a Sacred Deer including an Oscar nomination for writing The Lobster.

This year he has directed the historically based The Favourite set during the reign of Queen Anne in Britain in the 1700's.  Olivia Colman, Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone star and the film is reportedly more "accessible" than either Lobster or Scared Deer.  As it is from Fox Searchlight, this might be the year that a Lanthimos film makes the TFF lineup.

All of that reminder material is to get to the fact that the film had a teaser/trailer release on Monday.  Here it is from YouTube:

The Favourite is scheduled for release on Nov. 23rd.

That's your Tuesday MTFB.  More to come on Thursday.


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The Distributors 2018: Not so Much / And Some Overlooked Distribution Notes / Trailers Looming: On the Basis of Sex and Mary Queen of Scots / First Venice Speculation

Welcome back from your weekend to MTFB.


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2018: NOT SO MUCH

Today's final look at distributors that seem to have films in play for the 45th Telluride Film Festival is actually a look at films that seem like they could be players that do not have distribution deals in place for the U.S.

That could still change in the next eight weeks and we'll be keeping a close eye on that as an acquisition of any of these titles could signal an increase or decrease in the chances that a film would potentially be TFF bound.

Here's the list of films:

The Other Side of the Wind-Netflix is listed as having the TV distribution for this but pointedly is not listed as being the theatrical distributor.  Producer Frank Marshall is on record as saying that the film will be screened in theaters...sooo???

At Eternity's Gate-Julian Schnabel's Vincent Van Gogh pic.

The Death and Life of John F. Donovan- Xavier Dolan...been floating around for a long time.

Sunset-Laszlo Nemes' follow-up to his brilliant Son of Saul (IMDb currently lists Playtime as having world wide rights for all media)

And a slew of Cannes films that garnered good critical buzz in May: Long Days Journey Into Night, The Wild Pear Tree, Ash Is the Purest White and Dogman.

Additionally add Karlovy Vary top prize winner I Do Not Care If We Go Down in History as Barbarians.

From this list I feel that The Other Side of the Wind and Sunset are the most likely for Telluride (The Other Side of the Wind has been at the #2 spot on my first two Ten Bets of this summer).  All of the others would be credible entrants for TFF #45 (and I do have a vibe for Matteo Garrone's Dogman).


AND SOME OVERLOOKED DISTRIBUTION NOTES

As I was going over my notes for films that lack distribution, I ran across three films that have a serious shot at Telluride that DO have U.S. distribution but which I left off of previous posts.  Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War is with Amazon and Cannes entrants Happy as Lazzaro and Girl are both under the wing of Netflix.

Also add in Karyn Kusawa's Destroyer starring Nicole Kidman.  It's being distributed by Annapurna Pictures.




TRAILERS LOOMING: ON THE BASIS OF SEX AND MARY, QUEEN OF SCOTS

Anton Volkov's Trailer Track site notified subscribers over the weekend that we could expect to see trailers from Focus Features for both Mimi Leder's On the Basis of Sex which features Felicity Jones as a young Ruth Bader Ginsburg and also for Josie Rourke's Mary, Queen of Scots featuring Saorise Ronan and Margot Robbie.

Here are links to Volkov's posts flagging the expected arrival for both trailers soon:

Mary, Queen of Scots

On the Basis of Sex



FIRST VENICE SPECULATION

I ran across a serious speculative piece about films that might make the Venice lineup from an Italian website over the weekend: Ilsussidiario.net.  There are several films listed there that could certainly make the Venice/Telluride double play.

That Venice to Telluride (or in some instances the other way...Telluride to Venice) has become a stronger connection over the past few years.

Last year saw Oscar Best Picture winner The Shape of Water make that connection as well as Downsizing, First Reformed, Foxtrot, Human Flow, The Insult, Lean on Pete and Wormwood screen in both places.

Among the films listed in the post that I have been talking about for Telluride are:

The Death and Life of John F. Donovan
First Man
The Favourite
Roma
The Sisters Brothers
If Beale Street Could Talk
Radegund
Sunset
Beautiful Boy
A Star Is Born
Non-Fiction
Boy Erased

The Google translated version of the piece is linked here.


That's your Monday version of MTFB.  More to come tomorrow including a start on this year's look at "The Usual Suspects".

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Ten Bets #2 for TFF #45 / History Project: The Third Telluride Film Festival / The Distributors 2018: Specialty Houses

Welcome to Friday...


TEN BETS #2 FOR TFF #45

Time for the second installment of MTFB's Ten Bets for this year's Telluride Film Festival.  These are the ten films that I believe, for this moment, to be the most likely to make the lineup for the 45th edition of The SHOW.

Last week's Ten Bets was:

1) If Beale Street Could Talk
2) The Other Side of the Wind
3) Peterloo
4) Capernaum
5) Cold War
6) The Old Man and the Gun
7) Sunset
8) Burning
9) The Front Runner
10) Beautiful Boy


Here's this week's Ten Bets:

1) If Beale Street Could Talk
2) The Other Side of the Wind
3) Cold War
4) Capernaum
5) Beautiful Boy
6) Burning
7) Boy Erased
8) Peterloo
9) The Old Man and the Gun
10) The Front Runner

Other films in the hunt:

Sunset, The Sisters Brothers, The Man Who Killed Don Quixote, The Eyes of Orson Welles, Dogman, On the Basis of Sex, Girl, Happy as Lazzaro, Shoplifters, He Dreams of Giants, First Man, Widows,  A Star Is Born, Cheney (Backseat), Roma, At Eternity's Gate, Everybody Knows.


HISTORY PROJECT: THE THIRD TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL

I'm closing in on the conclusion of my project to expand the history section of this site as I cast an eye back to the third Telluride Film Festival that ran from Sept. 3-6, 1976.

TRIBUTES:

Chuck Jones, King Vidor and King Kong


SHOWS:

The Big Parade
Billy the Kid
Blue Jeans
Chulas Fronteras
The Crowd
Dersu Uzala
The Fire Within
Greaser's Palace
Heart of Glass
King Kong
La Marquise D'o
The Lost World
Lumiere
Maitresse
Most Dangerous Game
Music and People of the Northeast
Pastoral Hide and Seek
Phantom Tollbooth
Signs of Life
Spirit of the Beehive
Stories from the Jungle Book
Street Scene
The Thief
Two Tons of Turquoise to Taos Tonight
The Wedding March
A Well Spent Life
Wild Horse Mesa
Wild Oranges


GUESTS:

Robert Downey
Werner Herzog
Ed Lachman
Louis Malle
Barbet Schroeder
Fay Wray


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2018: SPECIAL HOUSES

I'm taking a quick look at specialty distribution companies that have had some Telluride successes over the past few years each of which has a film that stands a shot at making the Telluride lineup:

Magnolia

2006- Severance
2007- Terror's Advocate, A Thousand Years of Good Prayers, Redacted
2012- The Hunt, A Royal Affair
2015- Viva

Oscilloscope

2008- Kisses
2011- We Need to Talk About Kevin
2016- Lost in Paris

Strand Releasing

2010- Cameraman
2011- Bonsai
2012- Paradise: Love
2013- The Missing Picture
2014- Dancing Arabs
2016- Mifune: The Last Samurai

Here's what they have:

Magnolia has Cannes Palme D'or winner and critical success Shoplifters.  I actually think this film has a good chance to make TFF #45.  So much so that if I had a #11 on today's Ten Bets, Shoplifters would be there.

Oscilloscope has Margarethe Von Trotter's Searching for Ingmar Bergman which also seems like a good fit for TFF.  It also played at Cannes.

Strand Releasing's best shot appears to be Cannes entry Sorry Angel.  Of the three films I'm looking at, it seems like the least likely but it's not an impossibility.

Chances:

Shoplifters- 45%
Searching for Ingmar Bergman- 40%
Sorry Angel- 20%

Monday, a look at films that seem like Telluride possibles that still lack a U.S. distributor.


Have a good weekend!


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The First Ten Bets for TFF #45 / Awards Daily Critics' List / Burning Has a Home

Good Friday all!  Big post today!



THE FIRST TEN BETS FOR TFF #45

Here you have it.  My first official stab at guessing/predicting/projecting/hoping for films that will play at The SHOW in Telluride over Labor Day weekend.

The first set of predictions every June is fraught with uncertainty.  I look at a lot of factors:  Studios. distributors, TFF histories, especially with directors.  The buzz around films we know are coming in the fall and will almost assuredly play some if not all of the Telluride/Venice/Toronto triumvirate.  Oscar hopefuls, Cannes titles and a lot of the time, especially in early July...it's about intuition.

It all factors into my assessments.

Here's the history of success, or lack thereof, for each of the last seven years that I have been using the "Ten Bets" format:

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10

As you can tell, last year was a bounce back after low years of 2015 and 2016.

Overall, I manage an average of  5.7 correct guesses with the initial Ten Bets of each season.

So...crossing fingers... here's the first Ten Bets for 2018 (in order of likelihood):

10) Beautiful Boy- I think Amazon Studios will land at Telluride with this, at least and maybe more.

9) The Front Runner- Jason Reitman was once a T-ride favorite.  My guess is that this film gets him back.

8) Burning- this was Cannes' unrewarded critical darling from a director who has played TFF before.   This was actually higher on my list until word broke yesterday that it had been grabbed for U.S. distribution by Well Go USA Entertainment.   See below.

7) Sunset- If its half as good as his first film (Son of Saul), Laszlo Nemes will return.

6) The Old Man and the Gun- This feels like Fox Searchlight's best play for Oscar season and thus its best chance at a Telluride berth...though they do have other possibles.

5) Cold War- Pawel Pawlikowski with a good shot to return to TFF.

4) Capernaum- Cannes Jury Prize winner and SPC's most likely shot for the schedule.

3) Peterloo- Mike Leigh's film about labour strife in Britain.

2) The Other Side of the Wind-Orson Welles "last film".  If this doesn't play Telluride I will be greatly surprised and, for that matter, upset.

1) If Beale Street Could Talk- It would a shock if Barry Jenkins' follow-up to his Oscar winning Moonlight does not make The SHOW's lineup.

Others on my "just under the Ten Bets" list: Boy Erased, The Sisters Brothers, The Man Who Killed Don Quixote, The Eyes of Orson Welles, Dogman, On the Basis of Sex, Girl, Happy as Lazzaro, Shoplifters, He Dreams of Giants, First Man, Widows,  A Star Is Born, Cheney (Backseat), Roma, At Eternity's Gate, Everybody Knows.

What do YOU think?  What films do YOU think might play?  What films do YOU WANT to play?

Drop me a note at any one of the contact methods listed below.

Looking at this list before I punch the button to publish, I'm saying to myself...naw...these can't all happen...but what if they did???

So, there you have it.  Let's see now how many of these films actually make the lineup.



AWARDS DAILY'S CRITICS' LIST

Jordan Ruimy, writing and compiling for Awards Daily has posted a "Best Of" critics assessment for the first half of 2018.

TFF #45 films pop up on the list with some frequency.  Included on the list are:

#31-Loveless
#24-Foxtrot
#13-Lean on Pete
#6-The Rider
#1-First Reformed

Pretty impressive for the films that played last year but weren't released until this year.  The complete list from Awards Daily is here.


BURNING HAS A HOME

As I mentioned above,  Lee Chang-dong's Cannes critical fave Burning has a distributor.  Variety reports that Well Go USA Entertainment has acquired the film and plans a limited release on Oct. 26th in NYC with expansion after that.

The film was right at the top of the critics' polls after its screening at Cannes but had languished without a distributor until yesterday.

As you see above, I still have it listed among my first Ten Bets list, albeit lower than I was thinking earlier this week, despite the fact that Well Go USA has essentially no Telluride history to speak of.

The complete story is linked here from Variety


That's your Friday MTFB.  Come back for more on Monday.


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This Year's Oscar Crop and TFF Regulars / More on Don Q

Welcome back from your weekend.  Hope you had a good one...


THIS YEAR'S OSCAR CROP AND TFF REGULARS

At the end of last week not one but three major Oscar prediction groups published articles focusing on the films that they see as possible players for awards season glory.  Writers for Awards Daily, Variety and Entertainment Weekly all provided lists.

Taking a look, I noticed, to little surprise, that a number of films appeared on all three lists and a number also will be directed by people with past appearances at Telluride which means they have to be considered among the films that could make the SHOW.  So...here are the films from all three lists that have a TFF legacy director:

Barry Jenkins' If Beale Street Could Talk
Damien Chazelle's First Man
Steve McQueen's Widows

Making at least two of the lists:

Mike Leigh's Peterloo
Jacques Audiard's The Sisters Brothers
Jason Reitman's The Frontrunner
Alfonso Cuaron's Roma
Yann  Damange's White Boy Rick


And with one mention:

David Mackenzie's Outlaw King
Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War
Julian Schnabel's At Eternity's Gate

The complete articles can be found here from Entertainment Weekly, Variety and Awards Daily



MORE ON DON Q

In light of last week's news that Terry Gilliam's The Man Who Killed Don Quixote has been programmed to screen at the Karlovy Vary Film Festival despite having lost a court case in France concerning the ownership of the film's rights, came another story at the end of last week from Indiewire's Michael Nordine.

The IW story focuses on the claims of producer Marilea Besuievsky who says  that Paulo Branco, who won the court case, may have over claimed the extent of the court victory.

Besuievsky, being quoted from a Spanish language publication, El Espanol, says that Gilliam has the right to release the film anywhere in the world.

So...back on the TFF watch list it goes...

The Indiewire article is here.


More to come tomorrow.

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The Distributors 2018: Annapurna Pictures / Ivory/Payne Joint?

The week comes to a close on this late Friday in June...


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2018: ANNAPURNA PICTURES

So, here's the thing, Megan Ellison and her Annapurna Pictures have been producing films for awhile.  IMDb suggests that's been true since 2012.  Within the last few months, however, Annapurna  has made the decision to move into film distribution and that could open up some serious fall festival possibilities including Telluride.

Up to this point, the only Annapurna joint to have played Telluride was 2014's Foxcatcher.  I can clearly remember catching sight of Megan Ellison at the Fox Searchlight party in T-ride in 2014.

Now, with the move into distribution, I suspect there's a reasonable chance that Annapurna may well show up at Telluride with more frequency.

For example, Annapurna has the rights to Barry Jenkins' follow-up to the Oscar winning Moonlight in If Beale Street Could Talk and if that film doesn't make the TFF #45 lineup, I'll eat my hat (metaphorically, of course).

But in addition to Beale Street, Annapurna has a number of other films that could also be possible for TFF...

Backstreet...or whatever it will ultimately be called, is director Adam McKay's examination of the life and career of former Vice President Dick Cheney.  The film stars Christian Bale as Cheney, Amy Adams as his wife Lynne and Steve Carell as Donald Rumsfeld (I kid you not).  It could play TFF.

The other most likely Telluride player in the Annapurna stable id Jacques Audiard's The Sisters Brothers starring Joaquin Phoenix and John C. Reilly in a western of sorts.  Audiard's history at Telluride and with Cannes means we should at least pay attention to it as a potential film for Labor Day in the San Juans.

Chances for each...

If Beale Street-90%
The Sisters Brothers- 50%
Backseat (or whatever)- 45%

Maybe all three make the cut...

And...is it possible that Steve Carell could make a triple play appearance at TFF #45?  Beautiful Boy, Welcome to Marwen and Backseat...



IVORY/PAYNE JOINT

In the middle of March several outlets reported that frequent TFFer Alexander Payne was setting up to direct The Burial.  That may not be his next project as The Film Stage reported this week that Payne may well be team up with recent Oscar winner James Ivory to direct The Judge's Will.

The film, reportedly based on true story from India, would be re-set in Chicago and reveal the tale of a judge who tasks, in his will, that his family be responsible for the care of his mistress.

The Film Stage says that the project will be set up at Fox Searchlight.

Here's the story from The Film Stage.



Sorry for the short Friday post...More on Monday and have a good weekend.



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