Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
As I have been doing periodically, here's a look at where an Oscar expert is currently predicting for Best Picture and the number and categories of nominations that she is predicting for each.
Today's expert is founder and head of Awards Daily, website that is regarded as one of the most influential Oscar sites on the web.
The films are ordered by number of nominations. TFF films are in Bold.
Mank (12 noms): Picture, Director (Fincher), Actor (Oldman), Supporting Actress (Seyfried), Supporting Actor (Howard), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Sound, Costumes, Original Score.
News of the World (10 noms): Picture, Director (Greengrass), Actor: (Hanks), Supporting Actress (Zengel), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score,
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (8): Picture, Actress (Davis), Actor (Boseman), Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Sound, Costumes, Original Score.
Nomadland (6 noms): Picture, Director (Zhao), Actress (McDormand), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing
The Father (5 noms): Picture, Director (Zeller), Actor (Hopkins), Supporting Actress (Colman), Adapted Screenplay.
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (4 noms): Picture, Supporting Actor (Langella), Film Editing.
Minari (3 noms): Picture, Director (Chung), Supporting Actress (Youn).
One Nigh in Miami (3 noms): Picture, Supporting Actor (Odom), Adapted Screenplay.
Promising Young Woman (3 noms): Picture, Actress (Mulligan), Original Screenplay.
The United States vs. Billie Holiday (1 nom): Picture
WORLD OF REEL'S 35 MOST ANICIPATED
Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel website has posted its list of the 35 most anticipated titles for 2020. Much like I did The Playlist's list earlier this week I have tried to parse the WOR list for TFF #48 possibilities. Here's what I found (with the position on Jordan's list):
We have a new trailer for Chloe Zhao's marvelous Nomadland (I've actually seen it twice). Also a new poster for the film as well.
Here's the new poster:
And also, via YouTube, here's the new trailer for the film:
METACRITIC ON THIS YEAR'S FILMS
Here's a scan of Metacritic's current Top 25 films for 2020 thus far with my eye toward where films are that either played TFF #46 or where selected for inclusion in TFF's announced list of films for TFF #47. By their position on the Metacritic chart:
San Sebastian is planning for its film fest which runs Sept. 18-26...roughly two weeks after TFF and a week after Toronto. They've announced their first set of selected films which include a number of Cannes "branded" films. Of not to Telluride watchers probably are Summer of '85, Another round and True Mothers...which, barring being World Premieres for TIFF might indicate them as possibilities for TFF #47.
I'll point out again that when TIFF announced their Cannes titles a few weeks back, I pointed out that the TIFF press language called their selections as "premieres" without any qualifying status (i.e. "World" or "North American". My point was the notion that if TIFF could have announced them as a "World" or "North American" premiere they would have. Of course, I could be totally wrong.
Still, perhaps these selections are pointing to the most likely Cannes "crossovers" this year.
Netflix has announced that Charlie Kaufman's I'm Thinking of Ending Things will drop on Sept. 4th which is now the second day of the Telluride Film Festival. The announcement would certainly suggest that the film would not be at TFF #47 in a "normal" world. In a Covid-19 world, who knows?
But it also probably underscores Netflix's earlier revelation that they won't be including ANY of their titles at ANY film fest this fall.
As many of you know, I have been harboring a theory that there Netflix might pop some of their titles at Telluride under cover of Telluride's policy of not revealing titles until the day before the fest starts.
My takeaway from this information that my theory seems even less likely to come to pass and it was a highly unlikely scenario to begin with. Still, I'm not likely to abandon it it completely.
SASHA WEIGHS IN ON OSCAR
My friend Sasha Stone, founder of Awards Daily posted some serious and early Oscar prognostication since my last post. Included in the article re her picks for Best PIc as well as a list forwarded to her from another friend. I can tell you that Sasha's friend is also pretty good at predicting Oscar fortunes.
The friend's list includes:
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
The French Dispatch (Searchlight)
Hamilton (Disney)
Mank (Netflix)
Minari (A24)
Nomadland (Searchlight)
Stillwater (Focus)
Tenet (Warner Bros.)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
West Side Story (Fox/Disney)
Sasha's list includes:
Mank
West Side Story
Nightmare Alley
News of the World
Tenet
Nomadland
Stillwater
Trial of the Chicago 7
The Father
Da 5 Bloods
Films on both lists: Mank, Da Five Bloods, Chicago 7, Nomadland, Stillwater, Tenet and West Side Story. Of those only Nomadland seems to me to be a solid TFF prospect. Da Five Bloods, Mank and Chicago 7 are all Netflix joints now and I don't see Tenet or West Side Story being at a fest at all. Stillwater from Focus is intriguing. Whether it's a serious TFF possibility depends on if it's finished and what path Focus Features decides to follow.
The friend's other three films are: The French Dispatch, Hamilton and Minari. Of that list only The French Dispatch might be in the cards for TFF. Hamilton is playing now on Disney+, Minari was a Sundance film.
Sasha's other four are: The Father (also a Sundance title), Guillermo Del Toro's Nightmare Alley which recent reports suggest wasn't quite half-filmed when production shut down due to the pandemic-I don't think it'll be close to ready for TFF. Actually, I'll be surprised of it's ready in time for Oscar consideration this year even with the extended release window currently in place. Sasha's third film is Paul Greengrass' News of the World which hasn't been high on my list for TFF all along as Greengrass has never played anything at Telluride and also due to the lack of much a Telluride profile from its distributor/studio (Columbia/Universal).
I'm posting my latest take on the Best Adapted Screenplay race today. My last Original Screenplay predictions were posted on Oct. 3rd. Each film is followed by its position from the last prediction posting in parentheses. TFF #46 films are Bold.
1) The Two Popes (1)
2) Jojo Rabbit (2)
3) The Irishman (3)
4) Little Women (-)
5) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (4)
Other possibles: Joker, Just Mercy, Ford v. Ferrari, Hustlers
Notes: The top three contenders: Popes, Jojo and Irishman seem to be in very solid position. After that it gets murkier. Little Women has come on strong during the past month almost certainly as screening reactions have started appearing via social media but is no lock and a fifth nominee is totally up in the air.
LATEST BIG EIGHT COUNT
According to my latest predictions in each of the Big Eight Oscar categories (Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay), here's were TFF #46 films stand in as far as those categories are concerned:
Marriage Story (6): Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay
The Two Popes (4): Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
Parasite (3): Picture, Director, Original Screenplay
Judy (1): Actress
Pain and Glory (1): Actor
The Report (1): Supporting Actress
OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Here's the complete history of nominees and winners for the Best Original Screenplay category and the Telluride Film Festival:
1989- My Left Foot
1990- Reversal of Fortune
1996- Sling Blade-WINNER
2000- Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon
2002- City of God
2005- Brokeback Mountain-WINNER, Capote
2006- Little Children
2007- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, There Will Be Blood (scenes screened)
2008- Slumdog Millionaire-WINNER, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (scenes screened)
2009- Up in the Air, An Education
2010- 127 Hours
2011- The Descendants
2012- Argo-WINNER
2013- 12 Years a Slave-WINNER
2014- The Imitation Game-WINNER
2015- Room, Carol
2016- Moonlight-WINNER, Arrival
2018- Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Overall 24 nominees and seven wins.
SASHA STONE HAS A NEW THING
Awards Daily founder Sasha Stone has added a new podcast to that realm called Gold Tripping. The podcast is billed as Sasha looking back at her 20 year involvement in handicapping the Oscar race and her life during that time.
Yesterday I wrote a little bit about rumors swirling that a secret film would screen at Telluride this week. My list of what that might be was as follows:
1) None of the rumors are true and there is no surprise screening at all.
2) Todd Haynes Project (Dark Waters or Dry Run or...being snarky now...Dry Water or Dark Run or Dry Dark Water Run)
3) Nomadland
4) Little Women
5) Ad Astra
6) Joker
7) Bombshell
8) El Camino/Breaking Bad
For about three hours yesterday afternoon several of us that play this game thought we had the rumored secret figured out as Focus Features announced that Todd Haynes' Dark Waters has been dated for release. Deadline.com was the first to report the film will be in limited release on Nov. 22nd. The story also revealed that the film has been titled Dark Waters which, as far as I know, is the first definitive reference to the film's title. Dry Run had also been bandied about as a possible title.
A lot of film Twitter made clear that they viewed this as a likely "tell" that the film is probable for Telluride's lineup that will be officially unveiled on Thursday.
Then early on Monday evening came Indiewire's story about the Dark Waters release written by Anne Thompson. Anne's story included this passage:
"The movie (Dark Waters), which co-stars Tim Robbins and Bill Pullman, will not be ready in time for the earlier fall film festivals, but might turn up at AFI Fest in November. Focus will open the movie limited November 22, with expansion a week later."
I have to believe Anne has the lowdown straight on this.
So...what does it mean?
1) The #1 possibility I listed above still looks like my best guess...I.E. no film plays as a surprise.
Then with the Thompson story in mind, we drop Dark Waters down to the last possibility and the rest of the guesses look like this:
2) Nomadland
3) Little Women
4) Ad Astra
5) Joker
6) Bombshell
7) El Camino/Breaking Bad
8) Dark Waters
Each year since 2012 I have polled a list of industry professionals at the conclusion of the fest to rate the films they saw on a 1-5 scale just like I ask you readers to do and over the years many, many people have been kind enough to share their thoughts about them. This year's crew of Professionals is a large one. I think the largest collection of pros since I started doing this. The list is also Deeeep!
So, my huge thanks to the following who have agreed to rate this year and a special shout out to Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter and Sasha Stone of Awards Daily who were part of that first 2012 group and, I believe, the only two who have participated every year.
Here's this year's list of Professionals:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
J. Don Birnam-Jorge T/SplashReport.com
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Marshall Flores/Awards Daily
Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit
Gary Kramer/Salon
Tomris Laffly/RogerEbert.com
Scott Menzel/We Live Entertainment
Kenny Miles/We Live Entertainment
Mark Neglia/Next Best Picture
Eugene Novikov/Rotten Tomatoes
John Rhodes/Screencraft
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
Chris Willman/Variety
Anonymous
I'll have the ratings compiled and ready for posting about a week after the fest closes.
CIRCUIT BREAKER PODCAST
In Awards Circuit's Circuit Breaker podcast they launch into a full examination of Telluride specific discussion just before the 40 min. mark. They also mention the blog you're currently reading.
For the eighth consecutive year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride. All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".
Report your ratings with any of the following contact methods:
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
Hello to everyone on this Tuesday. How's your July so far?
THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019; MANY A SMALL FIRM-FINAL PART
-BLEECKER STREET MEDIA
Bleecker Street's Telluride bona fides are barely existent but they have a film that is in post-production that could be in line to make the grade for The SHOW this year. Sally Potter's Molly is currently listed as a 2020 release but...it has reportedly been in post-production since February.
Potter has some Telluride cred having screened her Yes there in 2004 and Ginger and Rosa in 2012 (with Molly star Elle Fanning in that cast). Additionally, frequent Telluride guest/participant/resident Laura Linney is also featured in the cast.
-MUSIC BOX FILMS
Francois Ozon could return to Telluride via Music Box with By the Grace of God. Ozon screened Frantz at Telluride in 2016 (also distributed by Music Box). Adding a bit of fuel to the fire was the film's win of Berlin;s Silver Bear award in February.
Chances for each film-
Molly 35% (would be higher if it was scheduled as a 2019 release)
By the Grace of God 35%
TELLURIDE AND OSCAR PART TWO: BEST DIRECTOR
Picking up where I left off yesterday, I'm continuing an eight part series of articles tracing the connection between films that have played Telluride's Film Fest and the eight "major" Oscar categories.
Yesterday I looked at T-ride and the Best Picture nominees from the past 14 years. Today it's the directors. Here are the directors that played films at TFF since 2005 who were Oscar nominated. Additionally, if that director won it is indicated with ***.
2005: Ang Lee/Brokeback Mountain***, Bennett Miller/Capote
2006: Alejandro Inarritu/Babel
2007: Jason Reitman/Juno, Julian Schnabel/The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Paul Thomas Anderson/There Will Be Blood (I count this and Benjamin Button even though we only saw a portion of each film in tributes to Daniel Day Lewis and David Fincher)
2008: Danny Boyle/Slumdog Millionaire***, David Fincher/The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2009: Jason Reitman/Up in the Air
2010: Tom Hooper/The King's Speech*** Darren Aronofsky/Black Swan.
2011: Michel Hazanavicius/The Artist***, Alexander Payne/The Descendents
2012: Michael Haneke/Amour
2013: Alfonso Cuaron/Gravity***, Steve McQueen/12 Years a Slave, Alexander Payne/Nebraska
2014: Alejandro Inarritu/Birdman***, Morton Tyldum/The Imitation Game, Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher
2015: Tom McCarthy/Spotlight, Lenny Abrahamson/Room
2016: Damian Chazelle/La La Land***, Barry Jenkins/Moonlight, Denis Villeneuve/Arrival, Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea
2017: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water***, Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
2018: Alfonso Cuaron/Roma***, Pawel Pawlikowski/Cold War, Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite
Over these 14 years 31 Best Directing nominations have landed with films that screened as a part of TFF with nine wins.
A couple of notes:
2016 was insane with four of the five nominees having come from Telluride films. The only nominee that year not from a TFF film: Adam McKay for The Big Short
It's good to be one of "The Three Amigos". The three Mexican directors who have been labeled with this sobriquet: Inarritu, Cuaron and Del Toro account for four of the nine wins. Cuaron twice. Inarritu has a second directing Oscar for The Revenant which, of course, did not screen at Telluride.
Thursday I'll take a glance at Best Actress nominees from TFF since 2005.
AND AN ASSIST FROM A FRIEND
I am always appreciative when one of the people I have become friends with that are actual journalists have the kindness to reference the blog. I always see a bump in traffic when something that happens.
With last Friday's first "Ten Bets" for TFF #46 I got a great assist from my friend Sasha Stone at Awards Daily. Sasha linked the Ten Bets and offered some of her views/analysis.
I also think she sort of promised that I could meet Tom Hanks if he's at the fest with A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. At least that's what I'm choosing to believe.
Welcome to this first summer 2019 Tuesday edition of MTFB...
THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: SONY PICTURES CLASSICS
Over the years I've been attending Telluride's Film Festival no other distribution company has placed more films at TFF than Sony Pictures Classics and it really isn't even close. Look at the SPC/TFF history over the past 16 years:
2018: The White Crow (1)
2017: A Fantastic Woman, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Foxtrot, Loveless, The Rider (5)
2016: The Eagle Huntress, Maudie, Norman, Toni Erdmann (4)
2015: Son of Saul (1)
2014: Foxcatcher, Leviathan, Red Army, Mr. Turner, Wild Tales, Salt of the Earth and Merchants of Doubt (7)
2013: The Invisible Woman, The Lunchbox, The Past, Tim's Vermeer and Jodorowsky's Dune (5)
2012: The Gatekeepers, At Any Price, Rust and Bone, No, Wadjda, Amour (6)
2011: A Dangerous Method, In Darkness, Footnote, A Separation (4)
2010: Incendies, Of Gods and Men, Tamara Drewe, Another Year, The Illusionist, Inside Job (6)
2009: The Last Station, The White Ribbon, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet, An Education (5)
2008: Waltz with Bashir, I've Loved You So Long, O'Horten (3)
2007: Brick Lane, When Did You Last See Your Father, Persepolis, The Band's Visit, The Counterfeiters, Steep! (6)
2006: Jindabyne, The Lives of Others, Volver, The Italian (4)
2005: Breakfast on Pluto, Capote, Cache, The Child (4)
2004: Being Julia, House of Flying Daggers, Bad Education, Merchant of Venice, Up and Down, Yes (6)
2003: The Fog of War, My Life Without Me, The Triplets of Belleville, Young Adam (4)
That's 71 films over 16 festivals averaging an astonishing 4.4 films a year. Last year and 2015 were anomalies with only a single SPC film making the TFF lineup.
When I posted the SPC assessment last summer I only had then with two possibilities: Capernaum and The Fall of the American Empire. I listed Capernaum with a 60% chance at TFF and American Empire at 30% and, as you may remember, neither film played The SHOW.
In my defense, I did say in last summer's post that 2018 could be a year wherein SPC might only have a single film at Telluride and they didn't acquire distribution rights to Ralph Fiennes' The White Crow until August 13th, more than two months after I posted the SPC assessment.
This year, SPC looks likely to be back at TFF but probably not at the 4-5 film level. Right now, they list five films that I think could be in play. Three of those are films from Cannes plus a documentary and World War II drama.
The Cannes films are Pedro Almodovar's Pain and Glory, Ira Sachs' Frankie and Michael Covino's The Climb. Both the Almodovar and the Covino films were critically lauded at the French fest last month with Pain and Glory winning Best Actor for Antonio Banderas and The Climb winning a jury award in the Un Certain Regard section. Frankie did not fare as well with critics or jurors.
As I have written here a few times, Almodovar was a common invitee to TFF in the past but hasn't screened a film there since 2006's Volver. Perhaps Pain and Glory is the film that returns the Oscar winner to the San Juans.
The other two SPC films are a documentary about the life of musical legend John Prine entitled John Prine: Hello in There and the drama The Song of Names starring Clive Owen and Tim Roth. SPC acquired The Song of Names in April.
My assessment at the moment is actually that The Climb might be the front runner for SPC's chances to be on the Telluride list. Here's my best guestimate of the chances for each of the five films listed above to make The SHOW
The Climb 50%
Pain and Glory 40%
Frankie 30%
The Song of Names 30%
John Prine: Hello in There 20%
Thursday's distribution spotlight will shine on Fox Searchlight.
A LOOK AT THE WHISTLERS
Still from The Whistlers via The Playlist
In 2006 Corneliu Porumboiu screened his Cannes award winning film 12:08 East of Bucharest at the 30th Telluride Film Festival. He hasn't had a film return since.
That could change this year with his latest Cannes entrant The Whistlers. IMDb describes the film as a comedy and a crime film. The story centers on a policeman attempting to spring a crooked businessman from prison complicated by the need to use different languages.
The film played moderately well as a part of the Palme competition lineup at last month's Cannes fest but was not an award winner.
Earlier this week, a new international teaser trailer became available for the film. Here that is from YouTube:
The Playlist posted an extensive story on the film on May 18th for the film's Cannes debut. The post include multiple clips and stills from the film. That Playlist story is linked here.
The Whistlers does not have U.S. distribution at this point.
STONE'S FIRST ASSESSMENT
Sasha Stone, who has been a good friend to me over the years, has her first assessment of the Best Picture landscape for this year at her website Awards Daily.
Sasha also includes as a part of her review Best Pic sentiments from Anne Thompson of Indiewire and Erik Anderson of Awards Watch.
Sasha's list ultimately includes ten films most of which could potentially be a part of the TFF #46 lineup.
Among the ten films she lands on are: Scorsese's The Irishman, Tarantino's Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Gerwig's Little Women and Heller's A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.
As I mentioned in my last post, the Oscar peeps named their short lists in nine categories on Monday electing to do so all in one wave rather than separately. Consequently, here's a snapshot of where films from TFF landed in the categories that were included among the nine:
Documentary (15 on the short list): Free Solo
Foreign Language (9 on the list): Birds of Passage, Shoplifters, Roma and Cold War. Missing from the list: Border and Girl.
Makeup/Hair (7 on the list): Border
Score (15 on the list): First Man
Song: (15 on the list): Revelation from Boy Erased
Visual Effects (10 on the list): First Man
Live Action Short (10 on the list): Caroline, Fauve
No TFF films were among the short listed films in the Documentary Shorts category or the Animated Shorts.
INDIEWIRE'S CRITICS' POLL FOR 2018 SAYS TFF #45 WAS GOOOOD
The crew at Indiewire have done their annual compilation of critics' assessments for the year. The massive undertaking included the responses of 232 critics and after the dust settled, films that played at Telluride in 2018 fared remarkably well.
Indiewire posted the top films and performances in a number if categories on Monday and here's where TFF films landed.
Best Film (of 10)
1. Roma
2. First Reformed (TFF #44)
4. The Favourite
5. Cold War
6. Shoplifters
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
4. Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite
5. Paul Schrader/First Reformed (TFF #44)
Best Actress
1. Olivia Colman/The Favourite
2. Yalitza Aparicio/Roma
4. Joanna Kulig/Cold War
5. Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Actor
1. Ethan Hawke/First Reformed (TFF #44)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Rachel Weisz/The Favourite
3. Emma Stone/The Favourite
Best Supporting Actor
2. Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever forgive Me?
Best Documentary
4. Free Solo
Best Screenplay
1. The Favourite
2. First Reformed (TFF #44)
3. Roma
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
In a separate piece, Imdiewire runs down the top 50 films as rated by the 232 critics that they surveyed and both TFF #45 and TFF #44 were well represented:
43) Birds of Passage
38) Lean on Pete***
35) Border
30) The Other Side of the Wind
25) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
21) First Man
11) The Rider***
6) Shoplifters
5) Cold War
4) The Favourite
2) First Reformed***
1) Roma
Sasha Stone at Awards Daily posted a passionate endorsement of Damien Chazelle's First Man on her website this week. By and large I agree with her assessment about the film and, frankly, were I a voting member of the Academy it would be at the top of my ballot.
It seems a little unusual to me that First Man hasn't performed better at the box office and during this awards season. In part because there is a group of people that experienced the film at Telluride who all feel much the same way-people that write about films for a living and that I have come to know at least a little bit. We,have all expressed our belief in the film's quality and if you follow specific media accounts, you can deduce some the people I'm referencing...Sasha being among that group.
It also seems weird that a film that scored so well on my post-festival collection of ratings from fest-goers and business insiders, hasn't connect with the wider public.
I have come to think of Telluride as a terrific bellwether for were the awards season is likely to go. I have come to the conclusion that T-ride has become an excellent microcosm of film-goers that collectively react much like the Academy will.
But it doesn't seem that way this year with this film.
Maybe this is a disconnect between the Telluride crowd and the rapidly evolving membership of the Academy as it has tried to increase its diversity over the past few years. Maybe the First Man reaction or lack thereof is an anomaly that won't repeat at TFF #46 and the track record of the last decade or so will reassert itself.
Maybe I'm just wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.
And it's not that First Man is going to be a total miss come Oscar nomination morning. It'll likely be nominated for Score, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects. It may get in for Cinematography and Film Editing. Claire Foy still seems to have a shot at a Supporting Actress nomination. Even the costumes and production design could still be in the mix for nominations.
Additionally, the Broadcast Film Critics Association gave it 10 nominations last week including Best Picture and Best Direction. Oscar predictor Kristopher Tapley of Variety/InContention posted his first set of predictions last week and First Man was in seven categories including Best Picture.
But the consensus right now is that the film isn't likely to a Best Picture or Directing nominee on Jan. 22nd and that, to me, seems wrong.
Good Monday to everyone and all the ships at sea...
REDFORD'S RETIREMENT?
Robert Redford has been clear and upfront over the past couple of months that The Old Man and the Gun would be his last acting job in film but this past weekend, with the public premiere of the film occurring, the Oscar winning director was singing a slightly different tune.
Elizabeth Wagmeister writing for Variety, reports that Redford has backed off the definitive claim about the conclusion of his acting career. The 82 year old star is quoted in the story as responding to questions about his retirement with "I should never have said that". The story goes on to reveal that Redford feels that all the reaction to his announcement has detracted from the film itself. To that end, he has dialed back on the "last film" rhetoric.
On the other hand, he certainly doesn't sound like he's got acting plans in his immediate future.
I checked in to Sasha Stone's updated Oscar predictions which she which she posts each week as a "Predictions Friday" column. This week, Sasha predicts many more categories than she has up to now.
Here are some Telluride-centric takeaways from her crystal ball:
She currently has Damien Chazelle's First Man leading the way for TFF films with 11 predicted nominations. It also appears that, if Sasha were 100% correct, First Man would likely lead all nominees (she has Bradley Cooper's A Star Is Born with between 8-10).
First Man nominations according to Stone: Best Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing, Cinematography, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Original Score. She also says that it could have a shot with Jason Clarke for Supporting Actor (listed in her "Contender" section for that category. Frankly, that's a potential nomination that I'll probably be cheering on.
The Favourite has between 7-9 nominations largely depending on which actresses get categorized where and then how many of the triumvirate of Colman, Stone and Weisz make the final Oscar lineup. Stone is currently listing Colman as a "Contender" for Best Actress rather than a predicted nominee. In addition to the women, Stone suggests noms for Best Picture, Cinematography, Original Screenplay, Production Design and Costumes. Stone also lists director Yorgos Lanthimos in the "Contender" section.
Roma lands six nominations: Best Picture, Direction, Cinematography, Editing, Original Screenplay and Production Design. It also is listed as contending for Best Actress and Supporting Actress.
Marielle Heller's Can You Ever Forgive Me? is listed for four nominations: Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay. Heller is also listed as contending for Direction.
Four films would receive a single nomination: Boy Erased for Supporting Actress and three feature documentaries: Free Solo, Watergate and Reversing Roe.
Also noted, a predicted nomination for TFF#44 film First Reformed for Best Original Screenplay.
Among other films Stone lists among her "Contenders", the leader of the "outside looking in" club is Jason Reitman's The Front Runner which Stone lists with no nominations but as a contender for six: Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Direction, Cinematography and Adapted Screenplay.
Boy Erased is listed as a contender for Actor, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay.
The Old Man and the Gun contends for Best Actor.
White Boy Rick contends for Best Actor.
Destroyer contends for Best Actress.
And TFF #44 First Reformed also contends for Best Picture and Best Actor.
Yeah, yeah...I know. If Beale Street Could Talk didn't play The SHOW but I can't help myself, Barry Jenkins will always be a part of my Telluride-view. So, here's the new trailer from Beale Street via YouTube and Movieclips:
That's a wrap for this Monday. More to come on Thursday.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
Good Thursday everyone...we're just a week away from being on the road to Telluride.
NEW ANNOUNCEMENTS REVEAL POSSIBILITIES
Since Tuesday's post we have seen new announcements from Fantastic Fest (its second wave), the New York Film Fest and the last of Toronto's announcements. Each has given us a few more tidbits to chew on.
New York's documentary announcements give us the most information of interest. The NYFF announces with some films having NO premiere designation. Those appear to be films that have had their U.S. premiere somewhere prior to New York's dates. Three documentaries fit that criteria that also do not have any credited U.S. screening that I can find up to this point: Angels Are Made of Light...which almost assuredly confirms it for Telluride after its earlier announcement for Toronto as a Canadian Premiere.
The other two are The Waldheim Waltz and Watergate. Waldheim is from film maker Ruth Beckermann while Watergate is from Oscar winner (Inside Job) Charles Ferguson. Ferguson has played Telluride in 2010. Seems like Ferguson could well be returning to The SHOW.
Meanwhile, Toronto's last announcement left us with a couple of items of interest. We know that Brady Corbet's Vox Lux starring Natalie Portman won't make the trip from Venice as TIFF lists it as a North American Premiere. However, Lukas Dhont's Girl, which made a splash at Cannes in the Un Certain Regard section, is all but confirmed for TFF #45 with its Canadian Premiere designation.
And Fantastic Fest announced Ali Abassi's Border as a Texas Premiere. I had some confusion a couple of weeks back when the L.A. Film Fest announced it (prior to its inclusion later by Toronto) as a "California Premiere" rather than a U.S. Premiere and thought that made the film a pretty decent bet for T-ride. Seems I was wrong.
I'll have all of this figured into tomorrow's post with a brand new Ten Bets that will probably be 20 films.
AWARDS DAILY'S COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW OF FESTS AND OSCAR PLAYERS
Yesterday my friend Sasha Stone of Awards Daily posted a substantial piece detailing what film festivals have what films and which seem to be playing that are probable Oscar contenders. The piece is quite informative and, to blow my own horn here, the Telluride section includes a fairly significant chunk of MTFB.
And my thanks to Sasha for including my work on her website.
FIRST LOOK AT NICOLE IN DESTROYER
You probably saw it all over the web the last day or so. I'm taking the photo of Nicole Kidman in character for her film Destroyer which we are relatively certain will be a part of the TFF #45 lineup when it's officially announced a week from today. If you haven't seen it, take a gander:
Here's a woman going full Charlize Theron in Monster.
Kidman plays a former cop that attempts to correct a part of her past.
Could this be the role that nets her a third Oscar? Maybe.
Vanity Fair published the photo with an interview of the film's director Karyn Kusawa which you can find here.
That's your Thursday MTFB. More tomorrow including the next to last Ten Bets for 2018. The SHOW draws near!
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
The 44th Telluride Film Festival came to a close last night. I have to admit that I had a great time this weekend.
As I am headed home, I thought I'd share a few random thoughts
1) I have to thank the fest first for, again, accrediting me as a journalist. That allowed some ease of access to films that was immeasurably useful. The Fest doesn't have to do that but they have been kind enough to do so for a number of years now.
2) Thanks to so many of you that were kind enough to share that you do follow the blog. It overwhelms me that anyone pays attention to what I write here but I'm glad that you do. Also, there were a good number of faithful readers and new followers that I didn't get to run into and that makes me sad. Keep in touch folks.
3) I really have to underscore my appreciation to all of you that responded to the appeal for my wife to meet Guillermo Del Toro. I was stunned at how a number of people reached out with solid suggestions and sources to try to make that happen. So many of you were rooting for us. And thanks to Guillermo Del Toro himself who was beautifully gracious and warm when the moment did present itself.
4) I saw ten films during the weekend and liked most of them but I don't think I necessarily saw a great film. Lots of good films though. I'll have more on that later this week (Thursday).
Me and Oscar winner Barry Jenkins at The Palm
5) The famous and beautiful...in addition to Del Toro I got to have a moment or two to renew my acquaintance with Oscar winner Barry Jenkins and spoke Saturday with the fantastic Richard Jenkins who I hope gets some notice from The Academy come Oscar time.
Rosamund Pike and Richard Jenkins at the Fox Searchlight Party Saturday night.
I also stood next to Rosamund Pike for a good long time Saturday night and restrained myself from injecting myself into her convo. But I kind of wanted to.
Telluride Film's Instagram from Sunday. Lower right corner is me talking to the fab Sasha Stone of Awards Daily
6) Professional friends. It was beyond fantastic to get a few moments to gab with friends that are true pros in the business of covering film. They're people of been unfailingly kind and generous to me as I have tried to figure out what this blog is and should be. Special shout outs to Sasha Stone/Awards Daily, Kris Tapley/Variety, Tomris Laffly/FSR and others, Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit.
7) Also thanks again to all the industry press pros that are taking part in this years Professional film ratings. People that don't have to do that but who do.
8) Finally,a big thank you to my wife and brother who were my companions and shared the weekend with me. They both made the logistics of the weekend much, much more manageable.
I'll have a nice post on Thursday that will focus on the critical reactions to the films that played TFF #44, my take on the ten films I saw and a rundown on MTFB's effectiveness for TFF#44.
WHILE YOU WAIT FOR THAT...DON'T FORGET TO SEND ME YOUR FILM RATINGS!!!
As I write this on Monday evening, I've already received the first 10-12 sets of ratings from readers. Remember use a 0-5 scale and you can get that info to me in any of the ways listed below.
More on Thursday...
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
Good Monday All. Hope your Thanksgiving holiday was terrific. The New York Film Critics are supposed to announce their choices for the best in 2014 film making. I'll have a bonus post about that later this morning...
WILD UNLEASHED
Jean Marc Vallee's "Wild" is unleashed on Friday. The film premiered at Telluride. The film tells the true story of Cheryl Strayed who walked the Pacific Coast Trail as an act of revival and redemption. The film stars (and was partially produced by) Reese Witherspoon who has received considerable awards buzz as has co-star Laura Dern.
I have linked interviews/profiles with Vallee, Witherspoon and Strayed below from The LA Times, Mother Jones and Newsday:
The word from this weekend is that Morten Tyldum's "The Imitation Game" starring Benedict Cumberbatch opened very strongly in limited NY/LA release. The film based on the life of Alan Turing was surprisingly snubbed by The Independent Spirit awards earlier last week but if early box office and Academy buzz is any indication...it looks to still be a strong awards contender.
Here's Variety's report of the strong box office opening in only four theaters in New York and L.A. from the weekend:
Critic's have started announcing their ten best lists and such as we enter the last month of 2014. Awards Daily's Sasha Stone takes a look at what the critics' collectives tell us:
"Leviathan"
"Under the Skin" (TFF #40)
"Ida" (TFF #40)
"Mr. Turner"
"Birdman"
"Two Days, One Night"
"The Look of Silence"
"The Wind Rises" (TFF #40)
COUPLE OF NOTES
I saw "Birdman" a second time in Albuquerque (there for the Rio Grande Art Show). It's s till great...genius...masterpiece. Likely the #1 film when I put together my year end list. Go see it if you didn't see it in T-ride or someplace else later...or see it again.
I also saw Damien Chazelle's "Whiplash" and maybe I suffered from too much anticipation or perhaps I can't leave my "teacher" lenses aside (believe me, I've "tough loved" my share of kids) but...ummm...no. The film has been a critical darling since Sundance (look at Sasha's story above about the critical response so far). My objections: It's over heated, has zero subtlety and the ending...which a lot of people love...fundamentally unbelievable. Now, I'm a huge J.K. Simmons fan and there's a lot of reason to believe he's going to win a Best Supporting Actor Oscar for this and to give him his due, he does a terrific job of committing to the character but in the end, even J.K. can't make me buy the way it all plays out.
Bottom line is that "Whiplash" is a B- film. That's my two cents.
More on Thursday including an updated FAC for Best Picture, Director Lead Actress and Actor.
It's Tuesday everyone! Telluride's 41st Film Fest kicks off in 10 days!
CORRECTION AND APOLOGY
Well, yesterday I mentioned that an alert reader had put me onto a story that confirmed "99 Homes" was headed to Telluride from thehindu.com. Turns out, I credited the wrong reader...so here's the correction and apology. BoomBoomChris gets the story right! The original tweet:
Suspicions that David Ayers' "Fury" (starring Brad Pitt as a war tested tank commander at the end of World War II in Europe) will pop up at Telluride. Last week we learned that the film will close the London Fest on Pct. 19th. It's set to open here in the U.S. on Oct. 17th, That date was originally in November, but was pushed back presumably to co-ordinate with the London screening. Nevertheless, within the past few days a number of publications have noted that the new date pushes the film closer to both Telluride and Toronto. The L.A. Times and Tech Tell.com go even a bit farther. The Times says, "So where will "Fury" play first? The most likely spot is the Labor Day set Telluride Film Festival,"
Yes please...Here's the link to the complete "Fury" story from the Los Angeles Times:
Despite all this, and I make no bones about it, I'd like "Fury" to make a T-ride appearance, I'm still dubious. Kristopher Tapley at HitFix/InContention has said-and said again yesterday that he's heard no Telluride or Toronto for the film and I tend to believe Kris. See his latest post below...it's...very interesting.
So, bottom line, "Fury" would be a welcome add to the TFF #41 lineup, but it's probably not in the cards.
TAPLEY ON TELLURIDE...AND A NEW THOUGHT
Christoph Waltz and Amy Adams in Tim Burton's "Big Eyes"
As mentioned above, Kris Tapley posted a combo piece yesterday that focused on the surprise last minute addition of Clint Eastwood's "American Sniper" starring Bradley Cooper to the list of end of the year releases and the second half of the piece focuses on Telluride.
Kris mentions most of the titles that we've got on our radar and in the "Ten (Plus) Bets". He continues to bum me about both "Fury" and J.C. Chandor's "A Most Violent Year". The first with no T-ride plans and the latter not ready for another three weeks or so...come on J.C...you can do this!
The real excitement comes at the end of the post when he suggests the possibility of a presentation of Tim Burton's "Big Eyes" and a tribute for the director. Now, I've suggested the possibility of both things here previously but admittedly without a great sense that the scenario would be likely. I suggested late last week that it was (along with "Unbroken") perhaps the most likely of the "big" films still out there that might turn up at Telluride. I also suggested at least the chance of a corresponding Burton tribute on Aug. 6th.
Now, I don't know if Tapley knows anything concrete or not...but wouldn't "Big Eyes" in the San Juans be cool? And a Burton film at Telluride is not unprecedented. "Ed Wood" was there in 1994. Bring it!
A Big Shout Out to Sasha Stone and her site Awards Daily for posting nice article yesterday that featured this blog. It was very kind of her to shed a light on this slightly manic endeavor.
Did it boost traffic? Ummm...yeah. So, thanks again Sasha! Right back atcha...
Here's the link to the Awards Daily story about Telluride from yesterday that featured Michael's Telluride Film Blog:
At # 10 on the latest "Ten Bets" is the Dardennes Brothers "Two Days, One Night" which stars Oscar winner Marion Cotillard. I'm telling you it's playing this year's fest. Now, personally, I'd be thrilled if Ms. Cotillard returned to Telluride. She received a tribute in 2012 with "Rust and Bone". I don't really think that will happen...but a guy can dream, right?
At any rate, a new clip sprouted from the film late yesterday featuring Petula Clark singing in French. Take a look here:
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