The Distributors 2019: Many a Firm Final Part / Telluride and Oscar Part Two: Best Director / An Assist from a Friend

Hello to everyone on this Tuesday.  How's your July so far?



THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019; MANY A SMALL FIRM-FINAL PART

-BLEECKER STREET MEDIA

Bleecker Street's Telluride bona fides are barely existent but they have a film that is in post-production that could be in line to make the grade for The SHOW this year.  Sally Potter's Molly is currently listed as a 2020 release but...it has reportedly been in post-production since February.

Potter has some Telluride cred having screened her Yes there in 2004 and Ginger and Rosa in 2012 (with Molly star Elle Fanning in that cast).  Additionally, frequent Telluride guest/participant/resident Laura Linney is also featured in the cast.


-MUSIC BOX FILMS

Francois Ozon could return to Telluride via Music Box with By the Grace of God.  Ozon screened Frantz at Telluride in 2016 (also distributed by Music Box).  Adding a bit of fuel to the fire was the film's win of Berlin;s Silver Bear award in February.

Chances for each film-

Molly 35% (would be higher if it was scheduled as a 2019 release)
By the Grace of God 35%


TELLURIDE AND OSCAR PART TWO: BEST DIRECTOR

Picking up where I left off yesterday, I'm continuing an eight part series of articles tracing the connection between films that have played Telluride's Film Fest and the eight "major" Oscar categories.

Yesterday I looked at T-ride and the Best Picture nominees from the past 14 years.  Today it's the directors.  Here are the directors that played films at TFF since 2005 who were Oscar nominated.  Additionally, if that director won it is indicated with ***.

2005: Ang Lee/Brokeback Mountain***, Bennett Miller/Capote
2006: Alejandro Inarritu/Babel
2007: Jason Reitman/Juno, Julian Schnabel/The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Paul Thomas Anderson/There Will Be Blood (I count this and Benjamin Button even though we only saw a portion of each film in tributes to Daniel Day Lewis and David Fincher)
2008: Danny Boyle/Slumdog Millionaire***, David Fincher/The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2009: Jason Reitman/Up in the Air
2010: Tom Hooper/The King's Speech*** Darren Aronofsky/Black Swan.
2011: Michel Hazanavicius/The Artist***, Alexander Payne/The Descendents
2012: Michael Haneke/Amour
2013: Alfonso Cuaron/Gravity***, Steve McQueen/12 Years a Slave, Alexander Payne/Nebraska
2014: Alejandro Inarritu/Birdman***, Morton Tyldum/The Imitation Game, Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher
2015: Tom McCarthy/Spotlight, Lenny Abrahamson/Room
2016: Damian Chazelle/La La Land***, Barry Jenkins/Moonlight, Denis Villeneuve/Arrival, Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea
2017: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water***, Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
2018: Alfonso Cuaron/Roma***, Pawel Pawlikowski/Cold War, Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite

Over these 14 years 31 Best Directing nominations have landed with films that screened as a part of TFF with nine wins.

A couple of notes:

2016 was insane with four of the five nominees having come from Telluride films.  The only nominee that year not from a TFF film: Adam McKay for The Big Short

It's good to be one of "The Three Amigos".  The three Mexican directors who have been labeled with this sobriquet: Inarritu, Cuaron and Del Toro account for four of the nine wins. Cuaron twice.  Inarritu has a second directing Oscar for The Revenant which, of course, did not screen at Telluride.

Thursday I'll take a glance at Best Actress nominees from TFF since 2005.





AND AN ASSIST FROM A FRIEND

I am always appreciative when one of the people I have become friends with that are actual journalists have the kindness to reference the blog.  I always see a bump in traffic when something that happens.

With last Friday's first "Ten Bets" for TFF #46 I got a great assist from my friend Sasha Stone at Awards Daily.  Sasha linked the Ten Bets and offered some of her views/analysis.

I also think she sort of promised that I could meet Tom Hanks if he's at the fest with A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.  At least that's what I'm choosing to believe.

Here's the link to her Awards Daily story that's about Friday's post.


Going to wrap this up for today.  More to come on Thursday.


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The Summer Sked Is In Effect / Upcoming This Week / International Films and Telluride

Good Monday everyone...

THE SUMMER SKED IS IN EFFECT

Beginning with today's post MTFB is on its summer posting schedule.  Through TFF's Labor Day weekend. I'll be posting four times a week on Mondays, Tuesdays, Thursdays and Fridays.  You can also expect occasional bonus posts when circumstances warrant.

For those of you that have followed this space for any length of time, you know that this switch to more posts each week means that it's time to get serious about what might play this year for the 46th edition of the Telluride Film Festival.

So, with that thought in mind...


UPCOMING THIS WEEK

I'll start peeking at the distribution companies that are frequent players at TFF to see what each has loaded up for later this year.  I'll include an historical look at what each of those companies has done at TFF over the past several years as well as handicapping the chances for their films to make the TFF #46 program.

Look for assessments for:

Sony Pictures Classics
Fox Searchlight
Netflix
Amazon Studios
Focus Features
Neon
Warner Bros.
Sony/Columbia
20th Century Fox/Disney
Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions
Cohen Media Group
Sundance Selects/IFC Films
Annapurna
Kino Lorber

The "Ten Bets" list will kick off my official season of guessing the Telluride lineup on June 28th but for those of you who just can't wait, I'll be putting up my "If I Had To..." list of guesses this coming Friday.

 I started doing this "early bird" version of my "Ten Bets" list a couple of years ago.  In 2017 I had six films listed that made The SHOW.  In 2018 I got five right.  Oddly, that's right in the ballpark of the average number of correct titles on each year's first "Ten Bets".

So... there's an outline of some of the things you can plan on seeing hear over the next few days and weeks.


INTERNATIONAL FILMS AND TELLURIDE

I certainly have a lot of "to-do" over the past several years regarding Telluride and the Oscar Best Picture race.  However, one area that I could have and maybe should have spent a little more tin=me doting over are the films that play TFF that go on to be serious contenders for what has, up until this year, been the Best Foreign Language Film category.  Now the Academy has changed the category name to Best International Film.

You'd have to be fairly oblivious not to have realized that TFF has hosted a serious number of Foreign Film Oscar contenders and winners over the years but I got curious since this year's Cannes about just how deep the Telluride and Foreign Film Oscar connection truly was.

Much like the Best Picture Oscar connection, TFF had some limited connection to the Foreign Oscar during the first few years of the 21st century and then that connection expanded dramatically beginning in 2008.

Here's a rundown of all the Foreign Language nominees and winners that have played TFF since 2000.  You'll see what I mean. (Oscar winners in the category are designated with an ***):

2000- Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon***
2001- Amelie
2002- The Man Without a Past
2003- The Barbarian Invasions***
2004- No nominees
2005- Paradise Now
2006- The Lives of Others***
2007- The Counterfeiters***
2008- Revanche, Waltz with Bashir
2009- A Prophet, White Ribbon
2010- Biutiful, Incendies
2011- A Separation***, Footnote, In Darkness
2012- Amour***, No, A Royal Affair
2013- The Hunt, The Missing Picture
2014- Ida***, Leviathan, Wild Tales
2015- Son of Saul***
2016- Toni Erdmann
2017- A Fantastic Woman***, The Insult, Loveless
2018- Roma***, Cold War, Shoplifters

That's nine winners over the last 19 years as well as a total of 32 nominated films and you'll note that the bulk of those wins and nominations have occurred since 2008.  Since then TFF has hosted five Oscar winners and 25 nominees.

So, not to put too fine a point on it, but if you're someone with a vested interest in getting a film into the serious International Film Oscar convo, Telluride is a good place to get into.

Related to all of this is a piece that Awards Circuits' Clayton Davis published on Wednesday last week that recapped the International films that have bowed at Sundance, Berlin and Cannes that he thinks have the best Oscar shots at the moment.

Among the films he lists that I feel are looking the strongest for Telluride right now are: Parasite, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Synonyms, By the Grace of God, Synonyms, Bacarau, The Invisible Life of Euridice Gusmao, Pain and Glory, Young Ahmed and Atlantics.

Clayton's entire article is linked here.



That's your Monday MTFB.  More tomorrow...


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The Telluride Effect Part One / Berlin Film Fest Closes / Ken Burns' Country / Spotlight on Free Solo

Hope everyone had a pleasant weekend and is having a great President's Day.

THE TELLURIDE EFFECT PART ONE

Oscar night for 2019 is now just days away.  Final Oscar predictions from every source imaginable will be coming at you fast and furious over the next six days including in this space in Thursday's blog post.   

Some of the experts may mention "The Telluride Effect".  For those of you who are frequent readers here, the expression likely doesn't need any explanation.  For those that may not have bumped up against the term, here's an definition of sorts...The Telluride Effect suggests that for a film to win Best Picture at the Oscars it will have had to play at the Telluride Film Festival.  It does not mean the film has had to premiere at Telluride, only that it screens as a part of the festival's lineup.

The term (I think Sasha Stone at Awards Daily is actually the person who coined it) has emerged over the last decade-plus as, with one exception when The Hurt Locker won as 2009's Best Picture.

Here's the lowdown for those years:

2008: Slumdog Millionaire (premiered at Telluride)

2009: The Hurt Locker (no T-ride play)

2010: The King's Speech (premiered at Telluride)

2011: The Artist (premiered at Cannes then played Telluride)

2012: Argo (premiered at Telluride)

2013: 12 Years a Slave (premiered at Telluride)

2014: Birdman (premiered at Venice then played Telluride)

2015: Spotlight (premiered at Venice then played Telluride)

2016: Moonlight (premieres at Telluride)

2017: The Shape of Water (premiered at Venice then played Telluride)

So there it is.  Nine of the last ten Best Picture winners and the last eight in a row have played Telluride and, as you can see, the most common route is to either premiere at Telluride originally or, of late, do the Venice to T-ride.  Only in the case of The Artist in the last decade has a film run through Cannes/Telluride to a Best Picture win.

This year, among the eight films nominated for Best Picture, the Telluride Effect's continuation depends on either Alfonso Cuaron's Roma or Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite.  If you read most Oscar experts you'll have seen that many feel Roma will win Sunday night.  I can't think of any that think The Favourite will be the big winner.  

Roma's chances appear to be reasonable.  I'd say something better than 50/50 but certainly not a lock.  Many prognosticators think Peter Farrelly's Green Book could win Sunday night.  Other, more distant possibilities might be BlacKkKlansman and Black Panther but most think it's down to Roma and Green Book.

I'll be on record on Thursday...but...hint, hint...I'm probably going to stick with the notion that The Telluride Effect continues to hold sway.

So...if it really exists, why?  You might ask.  I have a few ideas:

1) Reputation.  The fest has this string because they consistently program great film.  I think that attendees and peeps from the business pay attention to what Tom Luddy, Julie Huntsinger and crew secure to screen over Labor Day.

2) Demographics:  The fest, it seems to me, has a clientele that, at some level, mirrors the Academy.  That's probably changing some over the past few years as the Academy has made a strong effort to expand size and diversity.

3) And speaking of the Academy...TFF and AMPAS have had a significant relationship for a while and a good chunk of the attendees each year are members of the Academy.

4) Timing:  Telluride is in a sweet, sweet spot on the calendar.  Situated at the beginning of September and between Venice and Toronto is great positioning in terms of  setting the table for the fall films that will likely dominate the Oscar conversation.

5) The media has noticed.  There has always been a media presence since I started going to Telluride (since 2006) but over the last decade that seems to have increased dramatically.  As Telluride has, at the very least coincidentally, become a harbinger for what could occur during Oscar season, the press contingent seems to have become larger making for a more dramatic Telluride impact on the awards season.  At least it feels that way to me.

There are probably other reasons but these are the five that come to mind.  I know that Sasha Stone also has frequently suggested that the AMPAS choice a few years back to move the Oscars to earlier in the year has magnified the effect of fall film fests including Telluride.

Does it happen again this year?  For a big chunk of this Oscar season, I didn't think it would but as I said above, I think it's now more likely than not but it sure isn't a lock.  

I'll have more about The Telluride Effect in Thursday's post...

BERLIN FILM FEST CLOSES

The Berlin Film Festival concluded this week with the naming of Nadiv Lapid's Synonyms as the recipient of the Golden Bear, the fests more important prize.  Also winning awards: By the Grace of God, System Crasher, I Was at Home...But, and So Long My Son.

As I have written here, it isn't uncommon for Telluride to program a couple of films that premiere at Berlin.  Last year, for example, Dovlatov played Berlin first.  In 2017, A Fantastic Woman, The Other Side of Hope and Hostages all played the German fest prior to Telluride bows.

With its Silver Bear win, Francois Ozon's By the Grace of God may have moved to the front of the line for Berlin titles that could make the TFF #46 lineup.  A couple of other titles that I thought we should keep an eye lost some of their luster in that regard owing to mediocre/tepid critical response.  I'm referring to Lone Scherfig's The Kindness of Strangers and Agnieska Holland's Mr. Jones.

I have linked stories about Berlin;s awards here from

Screen International

Variety

Deadline

And critical roundups for the Berlin films are linked here from:

Metacritic

Reini Urban's Compilation


KEN BURNS' COUNTRY

I wrote a couple of weeks back about Ken Burns' upcoming PBS multi-part documentary about American Country/Western music and the possibility some of that might screen at Telluride prior to its bow on PBS in September.

PBS posted a 60 second teaser for the doc featuring Marty Stuart talking about the Grand Ole Opry and its place in Nashville and Country music history.  Here it is thanks to the magic of YouTube:

SPOTLIGHT ON FREE SOLO

I have had RBG at the top of my list to win the Best Documentary Oscar on Sunday night since the nominations were announced but the last week or so, there seems to be a real undercurrent in favor of Free Solo which, of course, played Telluride last Labor Day.  Honestly, between now and Thursday when I put up my final Oscar predictions, I may switch to Free Solo to win.

No less a light than Indiewire's Anne Thompson makes a compelling case for that possibility in the story she put up on Friday.  It's not really the focus of Anne's story but shows up in it.

You can see what Anne and what the film makers and climbers had to say to Anne as well by clicking here.


That's today's MTFB.  I'll have a Part Two about The Telluride Effect on Thursday in addition to my final Oscar picks for Sunday night's extravaganza.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Updated Oscar Predictions for Seven Categories / New Gurus of Gold / You Can't Rule It Out / First Look at Berlin's First Film

Good Thursday to all you TFF fans...


UPDATED OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SEVEN CATEGORIES

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

1) Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse
2) Incredibles 2
3) Isle of Dogs
4) Mirai
5) Ralph Breaks the Internet

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) If Beale Street Could Talk
2) Mary Poppins Returns
3) Isle of Dogs
4) Black Panther
5) BlacKkKlansman

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Shallow/A Star Is Born
2) All the Stars/Black Panther
3) I'll Fight/RBG
4) The Place Where Lost Things Go/Mary Poppins Returns
5) When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings/The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Roma
2) Cold War
3) A Star Is Born
4) The Favourite
5) Never Look Away

COSTUMES

1) The Favourite
2) Mary Poppins Returns
3) Black Panther
4) Bohemian Rhapsody
5) The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Favourite
2) Black Panther
3) Mary Poppins Returns
4) First Man
5) Roma

FILM EDITING

1) Vice
2) BlacKkKlansman
3) The Favourite
4) Bohemian Rhapsody
5) Green Book

NEW GURUS OF GOLD

Here's the link to the latest Oscar predictions from The Gurus of Gold at Movie City News.  They're linked here.  I'm in relatively good shape in as far as the collective predictions are concerned except in Film Editing where I'm way, way in a different place than the rest of the Gurus.

YOU CAN'T RULE IT OUT

I started seeing hints on Twitter the last couple of days that Martin Scorsese's The Irishman will likely have a theatrical release in September (perhaps late September) before its streaming release on Netflix, which is the money behind the film.  Jordan Ruimy of World of Reel tweeted this on Tuesday night:

Additionally, Ruimy posted a short story on his site which you can see here.

Of course, should this prove out, then the film, which is probably the most anticipated film of the year, has a window to screen at Telluride as well as Venice (if it doesn't screen in Cannes and my money says it screens at Cannes...assuming that fest and Netflix can come to some sort of mutually acceptable set of conditions-see my last post from Feb. 4th) and Toronto.

Making this all the more possible is the success this season of the Netflix produces Roma and should Roma ultimately win the Best Picture Oscar in two and a half weeks the chances of a T-ride play probably increase.

Stay tuned...

FIRST LOOK AT BERLIN'S FIRST FILM

Lone Scherfig's The Kindness of Strangers will open the Berlin Film Fest today.  The film is one of the Berlin titles that seems to me to have potential to be selected for The SHOW's 2019 lineup.

Deadline reported Tuesday that the film's producers have released a trailer for the film.  You can find that story and the embedded trailer here.

The Kindness of Strangers stars Zoe Kazan, Caleb Landry Jones, Andrea Riseborough and Bill Nighy and, in addition to opening the fest, will be one of the film's in competition for the Golden Bear.

Meanwhile, here is more coverage of the Berlinale from Indiewire with a story from David Ehrlich, Kate Erbland and Jude Dry looking at what they say are the ten most anticipated titles of the fest including several that are on my TFF #46 watch list including Mr. Jones, By the Grace of God, The Golden Glove and Varda by Agnes.


That's your MTFB update for this Thursday.  I'll have more on Monday.


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