Oscar's Predicted Winners: The Big Eight / Another List of the Most Anticipated / Berlin Films Revealed

OSCAR'S PREDICTED WINNERS: THE BIG EIGHT

We're down to a week and a half to get to Oscar night, Feb. 9th.  With it bearing down, here's where I have predicted winners in the "Big Eight" categories.  As usual, I have indicated TFF #46 films in Bold.

BEST FILM

1) 1917
2) Parasite
3) Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
4) The Irishman
5) Jojo Rabbit
6) Joker
7) Marriage Story
8) Little Women
9) Ford v Ferrari

Notes:  I could still change this prediction easily when I get to FINAL PREDICTIONS on Sunday, Feb. 9th.  Despite 1917's PGA and DGA wins and Parasite's SAG Ensemble win, I still think this is a close race between those two films and I also think there's still a reasonable set of circumstances by which Once Upon a Time wins Best Picture.  Parasite remains TFF #46's best chance to have hosted the Best Picture winner.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Sam Mendes/1917
2) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite
3) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time...
4) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman
5) Todd Phillips/Joker

Notes: It's a two horse race between Mendes and Bong.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy
2) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story
3) Charlize Theron/Bombshell
4) Cynthia Erivo/Harriet
5) Saoirse Ronan/Little Women

Notes: It's Zellweger's to lose and she's not going to lose.

BEST ACTOR

1) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker
2) Adam Driver/Marriage Story
3) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory
4) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes
5) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time...

Notes: Phoenix is a lock.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story
2) Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit
3) Margot Robbie/Bombshell
4) Florence Pugh/Little Women
5) Kathy Bates/Richard Jewell

Notes: Get used to saying: "Oscar winner Laura Dern".

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...
2) Joe Pesci/The Irishman
3) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
4) Al Pacino/The Irishman
5) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes

Notes: Pitt might the most locked in the very locked acting categories.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Parasite
2) Once Upon a Time...
3) Marriage Story
4) 1917
5) Knives Out

Notes:  As much as there is no suspense in the acting categories...there is a ton of uncertainty here. Parasite and OUATIH are very, very tight and Marriage Story wouldn't be a huge surprise.  This will be one of those categories that separate Oscar pools...not that anyone bets on this kind of thing.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Little Women
2) Jojo Rabbit
3) The Irishman
4) Joker
5) The Two Popes

Notes: Just like Original Screenplay...this category is a barn burner as well.  Lots of thought that this is where The Academy awards Greta Gerwig in part because of her missing out on a directing nomination.  Jojo and The Irishman are right there, though.

Overall 14 of the 23 TFF #46 films' nominations are in these eight categories.



ANOTHER LIST OF THE MOST ANTICIPATED

This list of "most anticipated films for 2020 comes from Criterion.  THe films listed there are grouped in a variety of ways.  Some are grouped by distributor, some by country of origin and there are are methods.  Among the films listed, these feel most like TFF #47 options:

The Card Counter/Paul Schrader
Dune/Denis Villenueve
Untitled Velvet Underground Project/Todd Haynes
On the Rocks/Sophia Coppola
Mank/David Fincher
I'm Thinking of Ending Things/Charlie Kaufman
Blonde/Andrew Dominik
MacBeth/Joel Coen
Nomadland/Chloe Zhao
Ammonite/Frances Lee
Bergman Island/Mia Hansen Love
Charlatan/Agnieszka Holland

Note: Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch, which I have mentioned on a couple of these "Most Anticipated" lists has slipped off of them as it was announced yesterday that the film will be released on July 24th.

The complete list from Criterion is linked here.


BERLIN'S FILMS REVEALED

The Berlin International Film Festival has announced the bulk of its lineup for the 2020 edition.  The Berlin Fest is of note as we often see one or two titles from that fest announced as part of the Telluride lineup each Labor Day.

Among the films listed by Indiewire that will be playing in Germany, these jump out as TFF #47 potentials:

Irradiated/Rithy Panh
The Roads Not Taken/Sally Potter
There Is No Evil/Mohammad Rasoulof
The Salt of Tears/Philippe Garrel
Siberia/Abel Ferrara
Undine/Christian Petzold


Check out the complete Berlin lineup as reported by Indiewire here.


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First Post-Oscar Nominations Gurus of Gold / Re-visiting My Oscar Analysis / Peering Into The Film Stage's Crystal Ball

FIRST POST-OSCAR NOMINATIONS GURUS OF GOLD

Over at Movie City News they've already corralled a majority of us Gurus to handicap the Oscar race for the winners in the 21 feature categories.  If the Gurus are right , this is the lowdown for what will win on Feb. 9th:

Picture: Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Director: Sam Mendes/1917. 

Actress: Renee Zellweger/Judy

Actor: Joaquin Phoenix/Joker

Supporting Actress: Laura Dern/Marriage Story

Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Original Screenplay: Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Adapted Screenplay: Little Women (I have Jojo Rabbit winning)

Doc: American Factory

Animated Feature: Toy Story 4

International Film: Parasite

Film Editing: The Irishman

Production Design: Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Cinematography: 1917

Costumes: Little Women (I Have Once Upon a Time winning)

Makeup/Hair: Bombshell

Visual Effects: The Lion King

Score: Joker

Song: I'm Gonna Love Me Again/Rocketman (I have Frozen II winning...for the moment)

Sound Editing: 1917 (I have Ford winning)

Sound Mixing: 1917 (I have Ford winning)

Categories that are tight: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Costume,Visual Effects, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

If the first pass is correct: Hollywood wins four, 1917 wins four, Little Women wins two, Joker wins two, Judy, The Irishman, Marriage Story, Bombshell, The Lion King, Rocketman, American Factory, Parasite,  and Toy Story 4 all win a single Oscar.

Check out the complete Gurus of Gold by clicking here and see the races that we think are close.

RE-VISITING MY OSCAR ANALYSIS

If you missed my take on Monday's Oscar nominations announcement, I've re-posted it here:

TFF #46 films snag 23 Oscar nominations:

Parasite-6- Picture, Director, International Film, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design.
Marriage Story-6- Picture, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Original Score
Ford v Ferrari-4- Picture, Film Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing
Two Popes-3- Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
Pain and Glory-2- International Film, Actor
Judy-2- Actress, Makeup/Hair


Nominations were led by Joker with 11.

The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and 1917 had 10 each.

Marriage Story, Little Women, Jojo Rabbit and Parasite each had six nominations.

My predictions 100 out of 124 for a success rate of 80.6%.  A little bit above my usual average.  My best categories (getting all of them correctly): Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Original Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing,).  My worst category: Costumes where I was an abysmal 2 of 5.

Categories where I had a nominee in the sixth spot: Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, International Film, Animated Feature, Film Editing, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Production Design, Live Action Short.

PEERING INTO THE FILM STAGE'S CRYSTAL BALL

As it does every year around this time, The Film Stage put out their list of 100 films that they say are their collective "Most Anticipated" for 2020.  That post went up on Jan. 9th.

As I do each year, I have parsed the list for films that seem to me to be TFF #47 possibilities. Here they are and where they were listed by The Film Stage on their list:

99) Those Who Wish Me Dead. Dir. Taylor Sheridan.

98) The Trail of the Chicago 7. Dir. Aaron Sorkin

92) Fireball. Dir. Werner Herzog

85) Summer '85. Dir. Francois Ozon

81) Good Morning Midnight. Dir. George Clooney

77) Stillwater. Dir. Tom McCarthy

69) One Second and Rock Solid. Dir. Zhang Yimou

65) News of the World. Dir. Paul Greengrass

64) Nightmare Alley. Dir. Guillermo Del Toro

57) The Winter Tiger. Dir. Ramin Bahrani

54) Untitled Velvet Underground Doc. Dir. Todd Haynes

53) Rebecca. Dir. Ben Wheatley

48) Mainstream. Dir. Gia Coppola

30) Dune. Dir. Denis Villeneuve

22) MacBeth. Dir. Joel Coen

16) Nomadland. Dir. Chloe Zhao

15) The French Dispatch. Dir. Wes Anderson

11) I'm Thinking of Ending Things. Dir. Charlie Kaufman

10) On the Rocks. Dir. Sophia Coppola

8) Mank. Dir. David Fincher

6) Bergman Island. Dir. Mia Hansen Love

The complete Film Stage list is linked here

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92ND OSCAR NOMINATIONS-AND SOME ANALYSIS

Oscar Nominations...with Telluride films in Bold


Best Picture
1917 (Universal)
Ford v Ferrari (Fox)
The Irishman (Netflix)
Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
Joker (Warner Bros.)
Little Women (Sony)
Marriage Story (Netflix)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
Parasite (Neon)

Actor in a Leading Role
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Renée Zellweger (Judy)

Actress in a Supporting Role
Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Florence Pugh (Little Women)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)

Actor in a Supporting Role
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Directing
Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Todd Phillips (Joker)
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
Joker (Todd Phillips & Scott Silver)
Little Women (Greta Gerwig)
The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)

Original Screenplay
1917 (Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
Knives Out (Rian Johnson)
Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
Parasite (Bong Joon Ho and Jin Won Han)

International Feature Film
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Miserables (France)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)

Production Design
1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Film Editing
Ford v Ferrari (Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker)
The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Jojo Rabbit (Tom Eagles)
Joker (Jeff Groth)
Parasite (Jinmo Yang)

Cinematography
1917 (Roger Deakins)
The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
Joker (Lawrence Sher)
The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Robert Richardson)

Visual Effects
1917
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Costume Design
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Irishman
Joker
Little Women

Sound Mixing
1917
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Sound Editing
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Original Score
1917 (Thomas Newman)
Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
Little Women (Alexandre Desplat)
Marriage Story (Randy Newman)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Documentary Feature
American Factory (Netflix)
The Cave (National Geographic)
The Edge of Democracy (Netflix)
For Sama (PBS)
Honeyland (Neon)

Documentary Short Subject
In the Absence
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
Life Overtakes Me
St. Louis Superman
Walk Run Cha-Cha

Makeup and Hairstyling
1917
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Animated Feature Film
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks)
I Lost My Body (Netflix)
Klaus (Netflix)
Missing Link (United Artists Releasing)
Toy Story 4 (Pixar)

Animated Short Film
Dcera (Daughter)
Hair Love
Kitbull
Memorable
Sister

Live-Action Short Film
Brotherhood
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbors’ Window
Saria
A Sister

Original Song
"I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" (Toy Story 4) — Randy Newman
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" (Rocketman) — Elton John & Bernie Taupin
"I'm Standing With You" (Breakthrough) — Diane Warren
"Into the Unknown" (Frozen 2) — Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez
"Stand Up" (Harriet) — Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo


TFF #46 films snag 23 Oscar nominations:

Parasite-6- Picture, Director, International Film, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design.
Marriage Story-6- Picture, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Original Score
Ford v Ferrari-4- Picture, Film Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing
Two Popes-3- Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
Pain and Glory-2- International Film, Actor
Judy-2- Actress, Makeup/Hair


Nominations were led by Joker with 11.

The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and 1917 had 10 each.

Marriage Story, Little Women, Jojo Rabbit and Parasite each had six nominations.

My predictions 100 out of 124 for a success rate of 80.6%.  A little bit above my usual average.  My best categories (getting all of them correctly): Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Original Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing,).  My worst category: Costumes where I was an abysmal 2 of 5.

Categories where I had a nominee in the sixth spot: Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, International Film, Animated Feature, Film Editing, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Production Design, Live Action Short.

SUNDAY SPECIAL: THE FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS / Final Oscar Predix from the Experts

FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

First a note or two…
If past history holds, these nomination predictions will be between 75%-80% accurate.  Additionally, of that 20%-25% missed, around 20% of those misses will pop up as the #6 possibility in categories that have five nominations.  Then again, as crazy as this Oscar season has been so far… all bets are off.

As always, TFF #46 films are indicated in Bold.

With that, here are the final MTFB Oscar nomination predictions for the 92nd Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE

1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
2) Parasite
3) 1917
4) The Irishman
5) Jojo Rabbit
6) Joker
7) Marriage Story
8) Ford v Ferrari 
9) Little Women
10) Knives Out

Other possibles: The Farewell, Rocketman, Uncut Gems
Notes: The top seven films feel solid.  I'm guessing nine films get nominated this year.  Here’s a thing, though…It feels like there’s a Little Women movement going on…that could get Gerwig, Ronan and Pugh in as well as the film for Best Pic.


BEST DIRECTOR

1) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time
2) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite 
3) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman
4) Sam Mendes/1917
5) Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit
6) Todd Phillips/Joker

Other possibles: Greta Gerwig/Little Women, Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story
Locks: Tarantino, Bong, Scorsese, Mendes


BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy 
2) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story 
3) Charlize Theron/Bombshell
4) Cynthia Erivo/Harriet
5) Lupita Nyong'o/Us
6) Saoirse Ronan/Little Women

Other possibles: Awkwafina/The Farewell, Alfre Woodard/Clemency
Locks: Zellweger, Johansson, Theron. 


BEST ACTOR

1) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker
2) Adam Driver/Marriage Story
3) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time...
4) Taron Egerton/Rocketman
5) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory
6) Christian Bale/Ford v Ferrari 

Other possibles: Robert DeNiro/The Irishman, Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes, Eddie Murphy/Dolemite Is My Name, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems
Locks: Driver, Phoenix, DiCaprio


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story 
2) Jennifer Lopez/Hustlers
3) Margot Robbie/Bombshell
4) Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit
5) Florence Pugh/Little Women
6) Nicole Kidman/Bombshell

Other possibles: Zhao Shuzhen/The Farewell, Annette Bening/The Report
Locks: Dern, Lopez. Robbie


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...
2) Joe Pesci/The Irishman
3) Al Pacino/The Irishman
4) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5) Song Kang-ho/Parasite
6) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes

Other possibles: Jamie Foxx/Just Mercy, Willem Dafoe/The Lighthouse, Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit
Locks: Pitt, Pesci, Pacino.  Near Lock: Hanks


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Irishman
2) Jojo Rabbit
3) The Two Popes 
4) Little Women
5) Joker
6) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Other possibles: Just Mercy, Hustlers, Dark Waters
Locks: Irishman, Jojo, Two Popes.  Near Locks: Little Women, Joker


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Once Upon a Time…
2) Marriage Story
3) Parasite
4) Knives Out
5) 1917
6) The Farewell

Other possibles: Booksmart, Uncut Gems, Pain and Glory
Locks: Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time..., Parasite. 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Parasite 
2) Pain and Glory 
3) Les Miserables
4) Beanpole 
5) Atlantics
6) Corpus Christi

Other possibles: Honeyland, Truth and Justice, Those Who Remained, The Painted Bird


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Toy Story 4
2) Frozen II
3) I Lost My Body
4) The Missing Link
5) How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
6) Klaus

Other possibles: Abominable, The Lion King, Funan

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) American Factory
2) Apollo 11
3) For Sama
4) One Child Nation
5) Honeyland
6) Biggest Little Farm

Other possibles: Midnight Family, Maiden, The Cave, Advocate

FILM EDITING

1) The Irishman
2) Ford v Ferrari
3) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
4) Joker
5) Parasite 
6) Jojo Rabbit

Other possibles: Marriage Story, 1917, Uncut Gems.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) 1917
2) Once Upon a Time...
3) The Irishman
4) Joker
5) Ford v Ferrari
6) The Lighthouse

Other possibles: Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Little Women, A Hidden Life, Parasite, Jojo Rabbit

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) 1917
2) Joker
3) Little Women
4) Marriage Story 
5) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
6) Ford v Ferrari 

Other possibles: Motherless Brooklyn, Jojo Rabbit

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Into the Unknown/Frozen II
2) I'm Gonna Love Me Again/Rocketman
3) Stand Up/Harriet
4) Glasgow/Wild Rose
5) I'm Standing with You/Breakthrough
6) Spirit/The Lion King

Other possibles: I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away/Toy Story 4, Speechless/Aladdin, Daily Battles/Motherless Brooklyn, Letter to My Godfather/Black Godfather

COSTUMES

1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
2) Little Women (2)
3) Dolemite Is My Name (3)
4) Downton Abbey (4)
5) Rocketman (5)
6) 1917 (6)

Other possibles:Harriet, The Irishman, Judy, Jojo Rabbit

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Bombshell (1)
2) Judy (2)
3) Rocketman (3)
4) Joker (4)
5) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (5)
6) 1917 (6)

Other possibles: Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, Little Women, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
2) 1917 (2)
3) The Irishman (3)
4) Parasite (4)
5) Joker (5)
6) Jojo Rabbit (6)

Other possibles: Little Women, The Two Popes, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Ad Astra

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) The Lion King
2) The Irishman
3) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4) Avengers: Endgame
5) 1917
6) Alita: Battle Angel

Other possible: Gemini Man

SOUND EDITING

1) Ford v Ferrari
2) 1917
3) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
4) Joker
5) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
6) Avengers: Endgame

Other possibles: Rocketman, The Irishman, Toy Story 4

SOUND MIXING

1) Ford v Ferrari
2) 1917
3) Once Upon a Time...
4) Joker
5) Rocketman
6) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Other possibles: The Irishman, Avengers: Endgame, Toy Story 4

ANIMATED SHORTS

1) Kitbull
2) Hair Love
3) The Physics of Sorrow
4) Dcera (Daughter)
5) He Can't Live Without Cosmos
6) Mind My Mind

Others: Hors Piste, Memorable, Sister, Uncle Thomas: Counting the Days

DOCUMENTARY SHORTS

1) Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone (If You're a Girl)
2) Fire in Paradise
3) St. Louis Superman
4) Walk Run Cha-Cha
5) In the Absence
6) After Maria

Others: Ghosts of Sugarland, Life Overtakes Me, he Nightcrawlers, Stay Close

LIVE ACTION SHORTS

1) Little Hands
2) Brotherhood
3) The Neighbors Window
4) Refugee
5) A Sister
6) Nefta Football Club

Others: The Christmas Gift, Miller and Son, Saria, Sometimes I Think About Dying

NOTES:

According to my picks the total nomination leader will be Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood with 12 followed by:

1917 and Joker-10
The Irishman-9
Parasite-7
Marriage Story and Little Women- 6
Ford v Ferrari-5

Telluride films will earn 25 nominations in total.  Another four could be possible.  In addition to Parasite, Marriage Story and Ford v Ferrari...

Judy-2
Pain and Glory- 2
The Two Popes- 1
Beanpole- 1
Fire in Paradise-1






FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS:

Awards Daily

The Hollywood Reporter

Awards Watch Part 1 

Awards Watch Part 2

Hollywood News

Indiewire

Vanity Fair

Entertainment Weekly

Next Best Picture


FINAL NOTE: I'll have all the nominees up sometime tomorrow morning with the breakdown of how Telluride films actually did and maybe a comment or two along the way.  Tomorrow's post will be later in that day than the normal 8:00am EST/6:00am PST.  Hoping to have it up by 10:00am Eastern.

Long Live Buck Henry 1930-2020 / SPECIAL NOTE: FINAL OSCAR PREDIX ON SUNDAY!!! / Guilds: Writers, Directors, Producers and BAFTA / Oscar Predictions Updated: Costumes. Makeup and Hair, and Production Design / MTFB in Other Places / First Cow Trailer

LONG LIVE BUCK HENRY 1930-2020

Got the news late last night that the legendary Buck Henry had died of a heart attack at the age of 89.  Henry had an extensive relationship with the Telluride Film Festival going all the way back to appearing as a guest of the fest at TFF #2 in 1975 according to the best info I can come up with.  Henry also Guest Directed in 2004 and was part of the multiple Guest Director group for TFF 's 40th Anniversary in 2013.  My records also indicate that Henry was at the fest in 2007 as well.

Henry was probably best known as the co-writer of Mike Nichols classic The Graduate, a film that would be on Top Ten list of all-timers.  Henry was a two time Oscar nominee.  The first came for the screenplay of The Graduate the other came as co-director of Heaven Can Wait with Warren Beatty.

He also wrote or co-wrote the screenplays for Catch-22, The Owl and the Pussycat, What's Up Doc?, The Day of the Dolphin and To Die For.  He was also the co-creator, along with Mel Brooks, of the 1960's comedy Get Smart.

Henry was also an early and often host for Saturday Night Live having reportedly hosted 10 times.

I got to meet Henry in 2013 in Telluride and express my thanks for his incredible career of providing thought provoking entertainment and a bunch of laughter.  That's the photo you see above.

Maybe the best thing that's happened at TFF over the years that I've been going has been opportunities like that- a chance to thank people for what they've meant in your life that you're never going to see at any other moment.  I don't do it often because I don't want to annoy- but my admiration for Buck was such that I knew that I'd kick myself if I didn't just tell the man "Thank you".

And thanks again Buck!



SPECIAL NOTE: FINAL OSCAR PREDIX ON SUNDAY!!!

I'll have the MTFB Final Oscar nomination predictions for this year posted at 6pm EST on Sunday, Jan. 12th

As of this morning, using the latest projections I have for each of the 21 feature categories- which will be updated for Sunday and will mean that there will be changes between now and then- here are the predicted nominee leaders:

Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood-12 (and the only film in double digits)
The Irishman-9
1917-8
Marriage Story-8
Joker-7
Parasite-6
Ford v Ferrari-5
The Two Popes-4
Bombshell-4
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker-4
Rocketman-4
Jojo Rabbit-3

All others 2 or fewer.

Other TFF #46 films:
Pain and Glory-2
Judy-2
Beanpole-1

Total TFF #46 nominations predicted- 28-but that will also likely change with Sunday's final predictions.






GUILDS: WRITERS, DIRECTORS, PRODUCERS AND BAFTA

Since my last post we've seen a ton of precursors name names for 2019 giving us new information to parse about Oscar nomination possibilities.  Let's run that down from the perspective of TFF #46 films.

WRITERS GUILD OF AMERICA (WGA) NOMINEES

The Writers Guild announced their nominations for screen writing on Monday>  TFF #46 films which were nominated were: Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story and Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin Won's Parasite in the Original Screenplay category.  No TFF #46 films were named as nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay.

Other Original Script nominees were for: 1917, Booksmart and Knives Out.  Adapted script nominees included: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker and Little Women.


DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA (DGA) NOMINEES

Parasite's Bong Joon-ho was the only TFF #46 director named by the DGA for their Director of the Year prize.  Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story, James Mangold/Ford v Ferrari, and Fernando Meirelles/The Two Popes all failed to be nominated.

The other four DGA nominees are Sam Mendes/1917, Martin Scorsese/The Irishman, Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood and Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit.


PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA (PGA) NOMINEES

The ten films named as potential winners of the PGA Award for Best Picture included three TFF #46 films: Ford v. Ferrari, Marriage Story and Parasite.

The other seven PGA nominees are: 1917, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Knives Out, Little Women and Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood.

Sasha Stone, founder of Awards Daily says that this tells that these results mean that the 2019 Best Picture Oscar winner is on this list of five films: 1917, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood and Parasite.

That means that Bong Joon-ho's Parasite now stands as the best bet for re-starting Telluride's trend for having screened the Best Picture winner is Parasite.


BRITISH ACADEMY OF FILM AND TELEVISION ARTS (BAFTA)

The British version of The Oscars named their nominees on Tuesday and TFF #46 films snagged 23 nominations.  Here are the Telluride films that were nominated:

Marriage Story had five: Scarlett Johansson/Best Actress, Adam Driver/Best Actor, Laura Dern/Best Supporting Actress, Noah Baumbach/Best Original Screenplay and Best Casting.

The Two Popes had five: Best British Film, Jonathan Pryce/Best Actor, Anthony Hopkins/Best Supporting Actor, Anthony McCarten/Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Casting.

Parasite had four: Best Film, Bong Joon-ho/Best Director, Bong and Jin Han Won/Best Original Screenplay and Best Film Not in the English Language.

Le Mans 66 (that's Ford v Ferrari to you and me) had three: Best Editing, Best Cinematography and Best Sound.

Judy had three: Renee Zellweger/Best Actress, Best Costumes and Best Makeup/Hair.

Single nominations came for:

Pain and Glory: Best Film Not in the English Language.
Portrait of a Lady on Fire: Best Film Not in the English Language.
Diego Maradona: Best Documentary.

Joker lead all films with 11 nominations followed closely by Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood and The Irishman with 10 nominations apiece.




OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATED

Here's my latest calls on the probable Oscar nominees in the categories of Costumes, Makeup and Hair and Production Design.  TFF #46 films are indicated in Bold.

COSTUMES (Last predicted on Dec. 19th)

1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
2) Little Women (3)
3) Dolemite Is My Name (2)
4) Downton Abbey (5)
5) Rocketman (4)
6) 1917 (-)

Other possibles:Harriet, The Irishman, Judy, Jojo Rabbit


MAKEUP/HAIR (last updated Dec. 19th)

1) Bombshell (1)
2) Judy (4)
3) Rocketman (3)
4) Joker (2)
5) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (5)
6) 1917 (-)

Other possibles: Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, Little Women, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil


PRODUCTION DESIGN (last updated Dec. 12th)

1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
2) 1917 (2)
3) The Irishman (3)
4) Parasite (6)
5) Joker (5)
6) Jojo Rabbit (-)

Other possibles: Little Women, The Two Popes,  Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Ad Astra


MTFB IN OTHER PLACES



The latest Gurus of Gold is up at Movie City News.  It's got the latest Oscar predix for Best Picture as well as a specialty poll.  We were asked to give 3-5 "Unlikely Underdogs" a shout out.  Among mine were an endorsement for Tracy Letts as as Best Supporting Actor for Ford v Ferrari and, in the same category, Kevin Garnett in Uncut Gems.

Take a look at the rest of the Gurus at this link.

Meanwhile, I also have a post up over at The Script Lab.  I wrote about the screenplays both adapted and original that are the most likely to be nominated next Monday morning.  I name a dozen for each category and include a small rundown about the film/screenplay/writers as well as providing my latest ranking of which scripts will be nominated.

Take a look at that post linked here.


FIRST COW TRAILER

According to the fine folks at Indiewire, Kelly Reichardt's TFF #46 player, First Cow has a trailer.  Here it is linked from YouTube:

First Cow is set for release on Mar. 6th.


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Oscar Predictions Update: Best Picture and Acting / Insight and Interviews from This Week

OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: BEST PICTURE AND ACTING

Telluride films indicated in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (2)

2) The Irishman (1)

3) Parasite (4)

4) 1917 (3)

5) Marriage Story (5)

6) Jojo Rabbit (6)

7) Joker (8)

8) Ford v Ferrari (7)

9) The Two Popes (9)

10) The Farewell (10)

Other possibles: Little Women, Bombshell,  Knives Out, Uncut Gems

BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy (1)

2) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story(3)

3) Charlize Theron/Bombshell (2)

4) Lupita Nyong'o/Us (-)

5) Cynthia Ervio/Harriet (4)

6) Awkwafina/The Farewell (6)

Other possibles: Saoirse Ronan/Little Women, Alfre Woodard/Clemency

BEST ACTOR

1) Adam Driver/Marriage Story (2)

2) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker (1)

3) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time (4)

4) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory (6)

5) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes (3)

6) Robert DeNiro/The Irishman (5)

Other possibilities: Christian Bale/Ford v Ferrari, Eddie Murphy/Dolemite Is My Name, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems, Taron Egerton/Rocketman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story (1)

2) Jennifer Lopez/Hustlers (2)

3) Margot Robbie/Bombshell (3)

4) Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit (6)

5) Zhao Shuzhen/The Farewell (4)

6) Kathy Bates/Richard Jewell (5)

Other possibles: Florence Pugh/Little Women, Nicole Kidman/Bombshell, Taylor Russell/Waves, Annette Bening/The Report

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time (1)

2) Joe Pesci/The Irishman (3)

3) Al Pacino/The Irishman (2)

4) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (4)

5) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes (5)

6) Song Kang ho/Parasite (-)

Other possibles: Jamie Foxx/Just Mercy, Willem Dafoe/The Lighthouse, Alan Alda/Marriage Story 

INSIGHT AND INTERVIEWS FROM THIS WEEK

Antonio Banderas with Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Renee Zellweger with Tim Stack/Entertainment Weekly

Anthony McCarten (writer-The Two Popes) with Dominic Patten/Deadline

Jimmo Yang (film editor/Parasite) with Mina Takla/Awards Watch

Noah Baumbach with Anne Thompson/Indiewire



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Golden Globe Nominations / Critics Choice Nominations / Los Angeles Film Critics Announce / Oscar Predictions Update : Best Pic and More / Latest Gurus of Gold / Trailers for Beanpole and The Assistant

GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their nominees this morning for the best in film and television for 2019.  Here's how TFF #46 films fared:

Marriage Story (6): Best Picture/Drama, Best Actor/Adam Driver, Best Actress/Scarlett Johansson, Best Supporting Actress/Laura Dern, Screenplay, Score  (Note: Marriage Story led the filed with its six nominations.  The Irishman was next with five).

Parasite (3): Director, Foreign Film, Screenplay

Ford v Ferrari (1): Best Actor/Christian Bale

The Two Popes (4): Best Picture/ Drama, Best Actor/Jonathan Pryce, Best Supporting Actor/Anthony Hopkins, Screenplay

Pain and Glory (2): Best Actor/Antonio Banderas, Foreign Film

Portrait of a Lady on Fire: (1):Foreign Film

Judy (1): Best Actress/Renee Zellweger

The Report (1): Best Supporting Actress/Annette Bening

TFF #46 totaled 19 nominations.

The complete list of all nominees is linked here from The Hollywood Reporter.



CRITICS CHOICE NOMINATIONS

Martin Scorsese's The Irishman led all films with 14 Critics Choice nominations with Quentin Tarantino's Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood close behind with 12.  Those were announced yesterday.

Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story led the TFF #46 entries in nominations with eight tied with 1917 as the fourth most nominated film.  In all TFF #46 films earned 32 Critics Choice nominations.

Here's the breakdown of TFF #46 films nomination for Critics Choice Awards yesterday:

Marriage Story (8): Best Picture, Director/Noah Baumbach, Actress/Scarlett Johansson, Actor/Adam Driver, Laura Dern/Supporting Actress, Ensemble, Original Screenplay and Score.

Parasite (7): Best Picture, Best Foreign Film, Bong Joon-ho/Director, Ensemble, Original Screenplay, Editing and Production Design.

Ford v Ferrari (5): Best Picture, Best Action Picture, Cinematography, Editing and Visual Effects.

Uncut Gems (4):  Best Picture, The Safdie Brothers/Director, Actor/Adam Sandler, Editing

Pain and Glory (2): Best Foreign Film, Actor/Antonio Banderas

Judy (2): Actress/Renee Zellweger, Makeup

The Two Popes (2): Supporting Actor/Anthony Hopkins, Adapted Screenplay

Portrait of a Lady on Fire (1): Best Foreign Film

The Aeronauts (1): Visual Effects

The complete list of all nominees for the Critics Choice Awards for film and television are linked from their website here.


LOS ANGELES FILM CRITICS ANNOUNCE

Also announcing their "Best Of" for 2019 yesterday was the Laos Angeles Film Critics Association.  LAFCA traditionally names a winner in each category as well as a runner-up.  In this years voting T46 films were named the Best in seven categories and runners-up in five other instances.  Leading the way was Bong Joon-ho's Parasite which was named in five of the 12 spots.  Here's the breakdown by TFF #46 film:

Parasite: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor Song Kan-ho and runner-up for Screenplay and Production Design.

Pedro Almodovar's Pain and Glory was named Best Foreign Film and its star Antonio Banderas was named Best Actor.

Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story was named a couple of times.  It was named Best Screenplay and Adam Driver was runner-up for Best Actor.

Portrait of a Lady on Fire was chosen as Best Cinematography and was also runner-up for Best Foreign Film.

The Safdie Brother's Uncut Gems was runner-up for Best Editing.

The complete list of winners from the LAFCA is linked here from their website.




UPDATED OSCAR PREDICTIONS

Updating my Oscar predictions for Best Picture, Director the Screenplay categories and Film Editing.

As always TFF #46 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) The Irishman (2)
2) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
3) 1917 (3)
4) Parasite (4)
5) Marriage Story (5)
6) Jojo Rabbit (6)
7) Ford v Ferrari (9)
8) Joker (8)
9) The Two Popes (7)
10) The Farewell (10)

Other possibles: Dolemite Is My Name, Richard Jewell, Bombshell, Knives Out, Uncut Gems


BEST DIRECTOR

1) Sam Mendes/1917 (4)
2) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time... (1)
3) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman (3)
4) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite (2)
5) Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story (5)
6) James Mangold/Ford v Ferrari (-)

Other possibles: Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit, Fernando Meirelles/The Two Popes, Todd Phillips/Joker


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Irishman (3)
2) The Two Popes (1)
3) Jojo Rabbit (2)
4) Joker (4)
5) Little Women (5)
6) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (-)

Other possibles: Hustlers, Just Mercy, Richard Jewell

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Marriage Story (1)
2) Once Upon a Time... (2)
3) Parasite (3)
4) The Farewell (4)
5) 1917 (5)
6) Knives Out (-)

Other Possibles: Uncut Gems, Honey Boy, Bombshell

BEST FILM EDITING

1) The Irishman (1)
2) Ford v Ferrari (2)
3) Once Upon a Time... (3)
4) Parasite (5)
5) Marriage Story (-)
6) 1917 (4)

Other possibles: The Two Popes, Jojo Rabbit, Joker


LATEST BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS FROM THE GURUS OF GOLD

These were updated late last week and the newest Best Pic consensus is linked here.

I believe there will be a new Gurus this week with expanded predictions in a number of other categories.  Keep an eye on my Twitter account ( @Gort2 ) for when that goes up.



TRAILERS FROM BEANPOLE AND THE ASSISTANT


A couple of films that screened at Telluride that have had low level buzz since the fest both released trailers this week.

Foreign Film contender from Russia, Kantemir Bagalov's Beanpole had one.  Beanpole is set for release in the U.S. on Jan. 29th and is being distributed by Kino Lorber.  Here's that video from YouTube:

Also launching a trailer was Kitty Green's The Assistant.  That film will release on Jan. 31st and is distributed by Bleecker Street Media.  Here's that trailer also from YouTube:

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Oscar Predictions: Best International Feature / Oscar Predictions Update: Actress and Actor / EFA Nominations Announced / Interviews From Marriage Story

OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Here's my first crack at parsing the likely nominees for the newly renamed Best International Feature category for the Academy Awards.  As always films from TFF are in Bold.

1) Parasite

2) Pain and Glory

3) Les Miserables

4) Atlantics

5) Monos

Other Possibles: And Then We Danced, Beanpole, The Painted Bird.

Notes: Honestly, the perception right now is that Parasite is so solid as the front runner for this Oscar that it seems a foregone conclusion that it will not only be nominated but will also win and that the rest of the field is playing for the proverbial "just honored to be nominated" status.  But then, remember Toni Erdmann...

OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: BEST ACTRESS AND ACTOR

Here's my latest updated predictions for Best Actress and Actor nominations.  I last updated the Best Actress prediction on Oct. 14th and Best Actor on Oct. 17th.

The latest predictions are listed in order of likelihood with their past position indicated in parentheses.  as is my custom, TFF #46 films are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy (1)
2) Charlize Theron/Bombshell (-)
3) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story (2)
4) Saorise Ronan/Little Women (-)
5) Cynthia Ervio/Harriet (3)

Other possibles: Awkwafina/The Farewell, Lupita Nyong'o/Us, Alfre Woodard/Clemency.

Notes: Theron coming on like a freight train as some folks have actually seen Bombshell.  Zellweger still has a solid grasp on the top spot.

BEST ACTOR

1) Adam Driver/Marriage Story (1)
2) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker (2)
3) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes (3)
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (4)
5) Eddie Murphy/Dolemite Is My Name (-)

Other possibles: Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory, Robert DeNiro/The Irishman, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems.

Notes: The category is relatively stable over the last three weeks.  Murphy sneaks in over Banderas and DeNiro...at least for now.

EFA NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

The European Film Academy announced the nominees for their awards for superlatives in European films for the past year and they included films from both TFF #46 and TFF #45.

TFF nominees included:

Pain and Glory nominated for Best European Film, Antonio Banderas/Best Actor, Pedro Almodovar/Best Director, Pedro Almodovar/Best Screenwriter.

Portrait of a Lady on Fire: Celine Sciamma/Best Director, Noemie Merlant and Adele Haenel/Best Actress, Celine Sciamma/Best Screenwriter

Beanpole: Viktoria Miroshnichenko/Best Actress

The Favourite (from TFF #45) Best European Film, Olivia Colman/Best Actress, Yorgos Lanthimos/Best Director

The complete list of nominees except for animated films is linked here from Deadline.

INTERVIEWS FROM MARRIAGE STORY

As Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story got its limited theatrical release this week and with its streaming release less than a month away (Dec. 6th) we are seeing more and more about the film including interviews with its principals.

Anne Thompson of Indiewire talks to Noah Baumbach

Baz Bamigboye of The Daily Mail talks to Adam Driver

Erik Anderson of Awards Watch talks to Alan Alda


That's Monday.

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Oscar History and TFF: Best Actress / Oscar Predictions: Best Director Update / International Feature Long List

OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: BEST ACTRESS

Jane Alexander in Testament...the first Best Actress nominee from a TFF film

I'm turning now to a breakdown of the history between TFF and The Academy Awards as related to each of the feature categories.  Today I bring you the Best Actress nominees from films that have screened at the festival since its inception in 1974:

1983- Jane Alexander/Testament
1991- Laura Dern/Rambling Rose
1993- Holly Hunter/The Piano
1996- Brenda Blethyn/Secrets and Lies, Emily Watson/Breaking the Waves
1998-Fernanda Montenegro/Central Station
2002- Salma Hayek/Frida
2004- Annette Bening/Being Julia
2005- Reese Witherspoon/Walk the Line-WINNER
2006- Kate Winslet/Little Children, Penelope Cruz/Volver
2007- Ellen Page/Juno
2009- Carey Mulligan/An Education, Helen Mirren/The Last Station
2010- Natalie Portman/Black Swan-WINNER
2011- Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs
2012- Emanuelle Riva/Amour
2013- Sandra Bullock/Gravity
2014- Reese Witherspoon-Wild, Marion Cotillard/Two Days One Night
2015- Brie Larson/Room-WINNER, Cate Blanchett/Carol, Charlotte Rampling/45 Years
2016- Emma Stone/La La Land-WINNER
2017- Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water, Saorise Ronan/Lady Bird
2018- Olivia Colman/The Favourite-WINNER, Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Yalitza Aparicio/Roma

Overall 29 nominations for Best Actress with five winners including three of the last four.

OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST DIRECTOR UPDATED

Here are my current predictions for the Best Direction Oscar with the past prediction listed in the parentheses.  TFF #46 films are in Bold.

Bong Joon-Ho/Parasite

1) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (1)

2) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman (5)

3) Bong Joon-Ho/Parasite (2)

4) Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story (3)

5) Taika Waititi/JoJo Rabbit (-)

6) Lulu Wang/The Farewell (-)

Other Possibles: Sam Mendes/1917, Marielle Heller/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Fernando Meirelles/The Two Popes, James Mangold/Ford v. Ferrari

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE LONG LIST

93 films have been submitted for the newly named Best International Film category (formerly Best Foreign Language Films.  Of the 93, I have only identified three that played at TFF #46:

Parasite/South Korea

Pain and Glory/Spain

Beanpole/Russia

Other serious contenders that were chosen are thought to be:

Monos/Colombia

Les Miserables/France

Verdict/Philippines

The Whistlers/Romania

Atlantics/Senegal

The complete list of all 93 films is linked here from Variety.

That's your Thursday.

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Added on Aug. 30, 2022 at 2:18 pm CDT:  Spielberg's Fabelmans to play Telluride in 2022.

TFF Announces New Milos Stehlik Scholar Award / Oscar Predictions 2019: Screenplays / Oscar History and TFF Part Nine / New Trailer for Parasite / Trailer for The Kingmaker

TFF ANNOUNCES NEW MILOS STEHLIK SCHOLAR AWARD

Milos Stehlik

BERKELEY, CA, October 2, 2019 – Telluride Film Festival (TFF), presented by National Film Preserve LTD., is pleased to announce the presentation of the inaugural Milos Stehlik Scholar award. The award was established by TFF before its 46th edition to honor the legacy of Facets Multimedia co-founder and former TFF Board President, Milos Stehlik, who passed away in July 2019. Milos’ longtime commitment to film exhibition and education, as well as to the Telluride Film Festival, made him a lifelong friend to students, cinephiles and filmmakers as a champion of cinema. Each year, one student who embodies Milos’ passion and humanist heart will be chosen from the incoming Student Symposium class to receive the award. This student will receive travel, lodging, a stipend and a student film pass. The Student Symposium, now in its 32nd year, is open to 50 currently enrolled college and university students from around the globe, no matter their major. The primary requirement is a love of film.

This year’s recipient, Damani Brissett, is a student from State University of New York at Purchase. He will receive an internship with the Telluride Film Festival Education Programs in 2020 along with the experience of attending the 47th Festival.

Damani, born and raised in Brooklyn, was selected by faculty from the Student Symposium Class of 2019. He says, “As a child, I was taught many integrities of living, some of them being: understand self-respect, respect for community, empathy, and aim to empower those around you to do good, not only for themselves, but for others. These seeds of holistic approach to humanity were sown within me and my sister at an early age, quietly, in a little corner of Flatbush Brooklyn.”

He was raised by a single mother with a devotion to her family and community, stemming from her proud Jamaican lineage. Damani continues, “Currently, as we face global dissensions on politics, ethics & consciousness altogether, I tend to revisit my origins to ascertain bearing on how to move forward. How can I, one studying filmmaker at SUNY Purchase college, work in the service of the people, with the people, in hopes to redefine systemic confines? I say, where there’s a will there’s a way, for that ‘I’ once took the form of Dr. King’s ‘Dream’, and that ‘I’ is sometimes all there needs to be, simply... a start somewhere.”

The Telluride Film Festival is honored that Damani will return next year to work with the TFF Education Programs and is proud to honor Milos’ legacy annually through the Milos Stehlik Scholar award. Milos co-founded Facets Multimedia in 1975. It is a hub for cinephiles to access hard-to-find independent and international films from around the globe. He was also a pioneer of the Chicago International Children’s Film Festival, the oldest, biggest kid’s film festival in North America. As an educator, a journalist on WBEZ, and a vocal champion of film, Milos has helped introduce generations to the awesome power of film. 

For more information on Telluride Film Festival and its Student programs, please visit www.telluridefilmfestival.org.

For more information on Milos and Facets Multimedia, please visit https://www.facets.org.



OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2019: SCREENPLAYS

Here's my Early(ish) Bird take on Oscar's Screenplay categories after the big fall fests-well almost, New York is wrapping up.  All TFF films predicted are indicated with Bold.


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Two Popes
2) JoJo Rabbit
3) The Irishman
4) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5) Joker

Other Possibles: Little Women, Judy, Ford v. Ferrari, Just Mercy

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Marriage Story
2) Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
3) Parasite
4) The Farewell
5) Knives Out

Other Possibles: 1917, Pain and Glory, Booksmart, Bombshell


As of today's post, here's the breakdown of my predictions for Telluride 2019 films in the eight topline categories:

Marriage Story: Six nominations and one possible: Picture, Director/Baumbach, Actress/Johannson, Actor/Driver, Supporting Actress/Dern, Original Screenplay/Baumbach.  Possible: Supporting Actor/Alda...and a parenthetical note here...MTFB is campaigning for a Julie Hagerty nomination for Supporting Actress...someone with some actual juice needs to get on this STAT.

The Two Popes: Four nominations and one possible: Picture, Actor/Pryce, Supporting Actor/Hopkins, Adapted Screenplay/McCarten.  Possible: Director/Meirelles.

Parasite: Three nominations: Picture, Director/Bong, Original Screenplay/Bong, Han.

Ford v. Ferrari: One nomination and three possibles: Picture.  Other possibles: Supporting Actor/Bale, Director/Mangold, Adapted Screenplay/Butterworth, Butterworth, Keller.

Judy: One nomination and two possibles: Actress/Zellweger, Other Possibles: Picture, Adapted Screenplay/Edge, Quilter.

Pain and Glory: One nomination and one possible: Actor/Banderas, Possible: Original Screenplay/Almodovar.

The Report: One nomination: Supporting Actress/Bening.

Waves: Three possibles: Picture, Supporting Actress/Russell, Supporting Actor/Brown.



OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF PART NINE

After spending the past few weeks doling out the history between Telluride and The Academy Awards by each year, I'm turning now to a breakdown of the history as related to each of the feature categories as far as TFF is concerned beginning with the list of films that played at Telluride and then subsequently earned Best Picture nominations:

1974-The Conversation
1989- My Left Foot
1992- The Crying Game
1993- The Piano
1996- Secrets and Lies
2000- Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon
2003- Lost in Translation
2005- Brokeback Mountain, Capote
2006- Babel
2007- Juno, There Will Be Blood (scenes screened at TFF)
2008- Slumdog Millionaire-WINNER, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (scenes screened)
2009- Up in the Air, An Education
2010- The King's Speech-WINNER, 127 Hours, Black Swan
2011- The Artist-WINNER, The Descendants
2012- Argo-WINNER, Amour
2013- 12 Years a Slave-WINNER, Gravity, Nebraska
2014- Birdman-WINNER, The Imitation Game
2015- Spotlight-WINNER, Room
2016- Moonlight-WINNER, La La Land, Arrival, Manchester by the Sea
2017- The Shape of Water-WINNER, Darkest Hour, Lady Bird
2018- Roma, The Favourite

In all, 39 films that have come through Telluride have been nominated for Best Film of the Year come Oscar time, 29 of those since 2007.  Of the 39, 9 have won the honor with all of those wins coming since 2008.

I'll have the Best Director nominees from TFF films up in Monday's post.


NEW TRAILER FOR PARASITE

Neon has a hot item on its plate with Cannes' Palme d'Or winner Parasite.  The film has been critically lauded for months now on the film festival circuit-it has a 92 on Metacritic- and audiences seem to have embraced it as well- our Telluride People's ratings gave it a 4.36 average rating (out of 5) which was good enough for it to land the second place spot in this year's People's Telluride.

Now Neon has dropped a new trailer for the film and here it is from YouTube:

Parasite opens domestically on Oct. 11th.


TRAILER FOR THE KINGMAKER


One of the best received documentaries at the 2019 edition of The SHOW was Laura Greenfield's look at the powerful former Philippine first lady Imelda Marcos.

That doc now has a trailer and here it is from YouTube:

The Kingmaker seems to be in the conversation for the Best Doc Oscar.

Interestingly, at least to me, is the connection to this film of one of our local physicians here in my small Oklahoma Panhandle town.  The doctor and his brother are both involved in Philippino politics.

I have included a link here to Indiewire's coverage of the trailer's roll out.



That's the Thursday MTFB.  More on Monday...


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