Over at Movie City News they've already corralled a majority of us Gurus to handicap the Oscar race for the winners in the 21 feature categories. If the Gurus are right , this is the lowdown for what will win on Feb. 9th:
Picture: Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Director: Sam Mendes/1917.
Actress: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Actor: Joaquin Phoenix/Joker
Supporting Actress: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Original Screenplay: Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Adapted Screenplay: Little Women (I have Jojo Rabbit winning)
Doc: American Factory
Animated Feature: Toy Story 4
International Film: Parasite
Film Editing: The Irishman
Production Design: Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Cinematography: 1917
Costumes: Little Women (I Have Once Upon a Time winning)
Makeup/Hair: Bombshell
Visual Effects: The Lion King
Score: Joker
Song: I'm Gonna Love Me Again/Rocketman (I have Frozen II winning...for the moment)
Sound Editing: 1917 (I have Ford winning)
Sound Mixing: 1917 (I have Ford winning)
Categories that are tight: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Costume,Visual Effects, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.
If the first pass is correct: Hollywood wins four, 1917 wins four, Little Women wins two, Joker wins two, Judy, The Irishman, Marriage Story, Bombshell, The Lion King, Rocketman, American Factory, Parasite, and Toy Story 4 all win a single Oscar.
RE-VISITING MY OSCAR ANALYSIS
If you missed my take on Monday's Oscar nominations announcement, I've re-posted it here:
TFF #46 films snag 23 Oscar nominations:
Parasite-6- Picture, Director, International Film, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design.
Marriage Story-6- Picture, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Original Score
Ford v Ferrari-4- Picture, Film Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing
Two Popes-3- Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
Pain and Glory-2- International Film, Actor
Judy-2- Actress, Makeup/Hair
Nominations were led by Joker with 11.
The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and 1917 had 10 each.
Marriage Story, Little Women, Jojo Rabbit and Parasite each had six nominations.
My predictions 100 out of 124 for a success rate of 80.6%. A little bit above my usual average. My best categories (getting all of them correctly): Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Original Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing,). My worst category: Costumes where I was an abysmal 2 of 5.
Categories where I had a nominee in the sixth spot: Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, International Film, Animated Feature, Film Editing, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Production Design, Live Action Short.
Parasite-6- Picture, Director, International Film, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design.
Marriage Story-6- Picture, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Original Score
Ford v Ferrari-4- Picture, Film Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing
Two Popes-3- Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
Pain and Glory-2- International Film, Actor
Judy-2- Actress, Makeup/Hair
Nominations were led by Joker with 11.
The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and 1917 had 10 each.
Marriage Story, Little Women, Jojo Rabbit and Parasite each had six nominations.
My predictions 100 out of 124 for a success rate of 80.6%. A little bit above my usual average. My best categories (getting all of them correctly): Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Original Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing,). My worst category: Costumes where I was an abysmal 2 of 5.
Categories where I had a nominee in the sixth spot: Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, International Film, Animated Feature, Film Editing, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Production Design, Live Action Short.
PEERING INTO THE FILM STAGE'S CRYSTAL BALL
As it does every year around this time, The Film Stage put out their list of 100 films that they say are their collective "Most Anticipated" for 2020. That post went up on Jan. 9th.
As I do each year, I have parsed the list for films that seem to me to be TFF #47 possibilities. Here they are and where they were listed by The Film Stage on their list:
99) Those Who Wish Me Dead. Dir. Taylor Sheridan.
98) The Trail of the Chicago 7. Dir. Aaron Sorkin
92) Fireball. Dir. Werner Herzog
85) Summer '85. Dir. Francois Ozon
81) Good Morning Midnight. Dir. George Clooney
77) Stillwater. Dir. Tom McCarthy
69) One Second and Rock Solid. Dir. Zhang Yimou
65) News of the World. Dir. Paul Greengrass
64) Nightmare Alley. Dir. Guillermo Del Toro
57) The Winter Tiger. Dir. Ramin Bahrani
54) Untitled Velvet Underground Doc. Dir. Todd Haynes
53) Rebecca. Dir. Ben Wheatley
48) Mainstream. Dir. Gia Coppola
30) Dune. Dir. Denis Villeneuve
22) MacBeth. Dir. Joel Coen
16) Nomadland. Dir. Chloe Zhao
15) The French Dispatch. Dir. Wes Anderson
11) I'm Thinking of Ending Things. Dir. Charlie Kaufman
10) On the Rocks. Dir. Sophia Coppola
8) Mank. Dir. David Fincher
6) Bergman Island. Dir. Mia Hansen Love
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