Oscar 2020-This and That / Other Oscar Takes: Analysis of What Went Down Sunday Night / An Early Look at Oscar for 2020 Films / Blog Updates

OSCAR 2020-THIS AND THAT

The dizziness from the Best Picture win for Bong Joon-ho's Parasite on Sunday night has begun to subside leaving a little clear-headedness to think about what occurred.

- Are the Oscars changed forever?  Does the diversification of the membership account for Parasite's success?  Maybe.  Perhaps the Oscars became a truly international award on Sunday.  You might argue that the internationalization has been creeping into the Oscar ceremony over the past decade.  Think of the Oscar Best Directors of recent years:

Hazanavicius/The Artist 2011
Lee/Life of Pi 2012
Cuaron/Gravity and Roma 2013 and 2018
Inarritu/Birdman and The Revenant 2014 and 2015
Del Toro/The Shape of Water 2017
and now Bong for Parasite.

Only Damien Chazelle  who won for La La Land (2016) hales from the USA.

It will be interesting to see if this trend continues.

-Parasite became the first film to win both International (or Foreign Language) Feature and Best Picture.

- Fully subtitled, I think it's the first Best Picture for which that is true although a friend of mine pointed out that past winners have included some sub-titling: Slumdog Millionaire, The Godfather films, Dances With Wolves.

- Parasite becomes the first Best Picture/Palme D'or combination winner since Marty in 1955.

- I took a look at how Telluride films have fared over the last decade in terms of total Oscar wins for each year.  Here's how that breaks down:

2019- 8
2018- 6
2017- 7
2016- 13 (this was the year of Moonlight, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and Arrival)
2015- 4
2014- 7
2013- 10 (Gravity and 12 Years a Slave)
2012- 5
2011- 7
2010- 7

That's 74 Oscar wins over the decade meaning that TFF films win 7.4 Oscars per year.  That means, thanks to Parasite, Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story and Judy, that this year's Oscar haul was better than average.  Best year, as you can see above, was 2016 with 13 , followed by 2013 with 10.  The most meager Oscar year was 2015 with four wins-that was the year of Spotlight.


OTHER OSCAR TAKES: ANALYSIS OF WHAT WENT DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT

In addition to my commentary about Oscar 2020 above I have also included some analysis posted this week from a couple of others.  Here they are:

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Ben Travers/Indiewire

Zack Sharf/Indiewire



AN EARLY LOOK AT OSCAR FOR 2020 FILMS

Photo from IMDb

Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture seemed to be the first up from an Oscar watching website with a rundown of films he thinks we'll be talking about a year from now as Oscar contenders.  There willy, be others coming soon and I'll include some of those early, early looks through the prism of what are films that might land at Telluride for TFF #47.

Among the films that Matt includes:

Aaron Sorkin's The Trial of the Chicago 7- IMDb says that it went into post-production last December.  Distrib: Paramount.  Release date: Sept. 25th

Paul Greengrass' News of the World- in post production last November.  Distrib: Universal.  Release: Dec. 25th.

David Fincher's Mank- in post this month.  Distrib: Netflix.  Release: TBA

Ron Howard's Hillbilly Elegy- in post last August. Distrib: Netflix.  Release November

Denis Villenueve's Dune- in post starting in July, 2019.  Distrib: Warner Bros.  Release: Dec. 18th.

Edgar Wright's Last Night in Soho- in post in August.  Distrib: Focus Features.  Release: Sept. 25th.

Lila Neugebauer's Red, White and Water- in post production in August.  Distrib: A24. Release: TBA

Francis Lee's Ammonite- in post since last April.  Distrib: Neon (coming off of Parasite this year).  Release: TBA

Guillermo Del Toro's Nightmare Alley- currently filming.  Distrib: Searchlight.  Release: TBA.

Chloe Zhao's Nomadland- in post since last March.  Distrib: Searchlight.  Release: TBA

The complete article is linked here including Matt's opening predictions for six major categories.


BLOG UPDATES

A Couple of bits of info.  I have updated the "Unofficial TFF Oscar History" page to reflect what occurred during the just concluded Oscar season.  Additionally, the "Selected TFF History" page has been updated to include the information from TFF #46.  Check those pages out. 

Still to come are the updates to the "Expanded Telluride Film Festival History-Part Two: 1996 to the Present.  I still have to synthesize the material from TFF programs for Fests from 2006-2019.  The links to the official online version of each of those programs are still on that page.



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And the Oscar Goes to...Parasite / The "Telluride Effect" Returns

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO... PARASITE

TFF #46 films in Bold

BEST PICTURE

Winner: Parasite 

BEST DIRECTION

Winner: Bong Joon-ho/Parasite

BEST ACTRESS

Winner: Renee Zellweger/Judy

BEST ACTOR

Winner: Joaquin Phoenix/Joker

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Winner: Laura Dern/Marriage Story

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Winner: Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Winner: Jojo Rabbit

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Winner: Parasite

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

Winner: Parasite

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Winner: American Factory

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Winner: Toy Story 4

BEST FILM EDITING

Winner: Ford v Ferrari

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Winner: 1917

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Winner: I'm Gonna Love Me Again/Rocketman

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Winner: Joker

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Winner: 1917

BEST COSTUMES

Winner: Little Women

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

Winner: Bombshell

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Winner: 1917

BEST SOUND EDITING

Winner: Ford v Ferrari

BEST SOUND MIXING

Winner: 1917

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Winner: The Neighbor's Window

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Winner: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Winner: Hair Love

Telluride films win eight Oscars: Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay and INternational Film for Parasite.  Film Editing and Sound Editing for Ford v Ferrari.  Best Actress for Renee Zellweger in Judy and Best Supporting Actress for Laura Dern in Marriage Story

My personal prediction rate for Oscar #92: 19 of 24 for a 79.2% rate almost exactly my prediction average for the last decades (79.6%)

Surprises were all but non-existent.  If you check out Sunday's predictions here you'll see that in every instance where I missed the film that won, the film I had listed as a "Maybe" picked up the trophy.

That said, the Parasite wins for directing and Best Picture were electrifying.  Parasite, as I noted yesterday, had clearly been gaining momentum and a lot of Oscar pundits did call for it to win.  Despite that, there was still a real sense of surprise in the hall, at least so it seemed to me, when Jane Fonda made the announcement.

Parasite's win is historic as it marks the first time in the Academy's history that a non-English language film has won Best Picture.  My bet is that the diversification initiative that the Academy has been pursuing regarding its membership over the past few years made Parasite's win a reality.  Additionally, as my friend Sasha Stone is fond of saying...Actors rule...and it feels like that branch of the Academy (its largest) made the difference over 1917 which had won awards from the PGA, DGA, Bafta and the Golden Globe for drama.




THE "TELLURIDE EFFECT" RETURNS

And, of course, Parasite's Best Picture win brings Telluride back into the conversation as an indispensable stop for films that are serious Oscar contenders.  The Telluride string was broken last year with Green Book's win but Parasite re-establishes TFF in the Oscar pantheon with the 10th Best Picture winner in the last 12 years having screened at the Fest prior to its winning the top honor.

You have to hand it to Tom Luddy, Julie Huntsinger and the rest of the crew that curates the fest's selections.  Parasite wins four Oscars plus Best Picture nominations for Marriage Story and Ford v Ferrari meaning that a full third of the BP nominees played Telluride plus The Two Popes which may well have been the 10th place film in initial balloting.  Don't forget Renee Zellweger's Best Actress winning turn in Judy which bowed at Telluride before anywhere else and Laura Dern's win for Best Supporting Actress.


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FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS IN ALL 24 CATEGORIES / FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM OSCAR EXPERTS

FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS

Here we are...

After a shortened Oscar season window, the ceremony is a couple of weeks earlier than has been the case recently, we have arrived at the moment of truth.  Hours from now Oscar nominees will become Oscar winners.

It's been a really interesting season especially in the race for Best Picture.  In other cases, such as all four of the acting categories, if there is a winner besides the widely expected four that have been the leaders all season, it would be a major surprise.

Sooo...here they are...drumroll please...

BEST PICTURE

Winner: 1917
Maybe: Parasite or Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Note:  The bare consensus among the Oscar experts is with 1917 but there is a strong current over the last couple of weeks in the direction of Parasite.  Either win pleases me.  I'd personally put 1917 at the top of my Oscar ballot if I had one and I'd love to see Parasite win to revive the "Telluride Effect".  Two other quick points...I wouldn't be shocked if Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood won the big award tonight.  I can envision it being the second or third choice on a lot of 1917 and Parasite ballots and it will get a healthy share of #1 ballots on its own.  And...the latest stirring in the last week is a theory that Taika Waititi's Jojo Rabbit stuns tonight.  I think that's a big stretch but as insane as Best Picture has been this year...who knows?

BEST DIRECTION
Winner: Sam Mendes/1917
Maybe: Bong Joon-ho/Parasite

BEST ACTRESS
Winner: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Maybe: Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story

BEST ACTOR
Winner: Joaquin Phoenix/Joker
Maybe: Adam Driver/Marriage Story

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Winner: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Maybe: Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Winner: Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...
Maybe: Joe Pesci/The Irishman

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Winner: Little Women
Maybe: Jojo Rabbit

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Winner: Parasite
Maybe: Once Upon a Time...

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Winner: parasite
Maybe: Pain and Glory

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Winner: American Factory
Maybe: For Sama

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Winner: Toy Story 4
Maybe: Klaus or I Lost My Body

BEST FILM EDITING
Winner: Ford v Ferrari
Maybe: Parasite

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Winner: 1917
Maybe: Joker

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Winner: I'm Gonna Love Me Again/Rocketman
Maybe: Stand Up/Harriet

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Winner: Joker
Maybe: 1917

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Winner: 1917
Maybe: Once Upon a Time...

BEST COSTUMES
Winner: Little Women
Maybe: Once Upon a Time...

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR
Winner: Bombshell
Maybe: Joker

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Winner: 1917
Maybe: The Irishman

BEST SOUND EDITING
Winner: 1917
Maybe: Ford v Ferrari

BEST SOUND MIXING
Winner: 1917
Maybe: Ford v Ferrari

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Winner: The Neighbor's WIndow
Maybe: Brotherhood

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Winner: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)
Maybe: St. Louis Superman

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Winner: Hair Love
Maybe: Kitbull


FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM OSCAR EXPERTS

Awards Daily Sasha says 1917 by an eyelash.

Awards Watch Awards Watch is picking Parasite to win Best Picture.

Variety  Variety opts for 1917 to win BP.

The Playlist  The Playlist says Parasite.

Deadline Deadline picks 1917.

The Hollywood Reporter THR picks 1917.

Indiewire  Indiewire predicts Parasite to win.

The Los Angeles Times  The LA Times says the winner will be 1917.

The New York Times  The Times says it's 1917.

Time Time says it's time for 1917.

Awards Circuit  AC says it will be 1917.

Entertainment Weekly  EW predicts Parasite.

The Hollywood News.  Hollywood News predicts Parasite.

The BBC  The BBC says 1917 wins Best Pic.

Collider Collider predicts Parasite to win.

Vanity Fair The Vanity Fair experts lean toward 1917.

Vulture   Vulture is in the Parasite camp.

The Toronto Star  The Star is picking 1917.

And here are the two big Oscar expert collectives:

The Gurus of Gold  We Gurus collectively are saying 1917.  (You'll see that's what I predicted last weekend when we were canvassed for our Final Guru picks).

Gold Derby  And Gold Derby's collective says it will be 1917.

I have TFF #46 films winning five total Oscars tonight:

Parasite: International Film, Original Screenplay
Best Actress: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Ford v Ferrari: Editing

TFF #46 films listed as the :Maybes: tonight include:


How will I do tonight?    Here's a quick look back to my decade long Oscar prediction track record:

2019: 19/24
2018: 21/24
2017: 15/24
2016: 15/24
2015: 20/24
2014: 22/24
2013: 18/24
2012: 18/24
2011: 17/24
2010: 14/24

That's a total of 179/240 for a correct percentage rate of  74.6%

Stay tuned tonight.  Like many of my friends in this business, I'll likely be tweeting here and there during the ceremony.

You can also expect an assessment of sorts in tomorrow morning's regularly scheduled post.

Oscar Predicted Winners: The Next Eight / BAFTA Showers 1917 with Love / Writers Guild Awards / Latest Gurus of Gold

OSCAR PREDICTED WINNERS: THE NEXT EIGHT CATEGORIES

Last Thursday I posted my latest picks for The Big Eight Oscar categories.  Today "The Next Eight": International Film, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Original Score and Original Song.

This coming Thursday I will add predictions for The Last Eight categories and then on Oscar Sunday Morning itself, I will have FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR ALL 24 CATEGORIES.

Here are today's predix with TFF #47 films in Bold

INTERNATIONAL FILM

1) Parasite
2) Pain and Glory
3) Les Miserables
4) Honeyland
5) Corpus Christi


DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) American Factory
2) Honeyland
3) For Sama
4) The Cave
5) The Edge of Democracy


ANIMATED FEATURE
 1) Toy Story 4
2) Klaus
3) Missing Link
4) I Lost My Body
5) Frozen II


CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) 1917
2) Joker
3) Once Upon a Time...
4) The Lighthouse
5) The Irishman


FILM EDITING

1) Parasite
2) Ford v Ferrari
3) The Irishman
4) Jojo Rabbit
5) Joker


PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) 1917
2) Parasite
3) Once Upon a Time...
4) Jojo Rabbit
5) The Irishman


ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Joker
2) 1917
3) Marriage Story
4) Little Women
5) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker


ORIGINAL SONG

1) I'm Gonna Love Myself Again/Rocketman
2) Into the Unknown/Frozen II
3) Stand Up/Harriet
4) I'm Standing with You/Breakthrough
5) I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away/Toy Story 4


BAFTA SHOWERS 1917 WITH LOVE

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts named their winners on last night and Sam Mendes' 1917 had a very good evening winning in seven categories (out of nine nominations).

TFF #47 films earned five BAFTAs as you will see highlighted and bolded below.

Here is how the BAFTAs shook out in the feature film categories:

Best Film: 1917
Best British Film: 1917
Best British Debut: Mark Jenkin/Bait
Film Not in the English Language: Parasite
Documentary: For Sama
Animated Film: Klaus
Director: Sam Mendes/1917
Original Screenplay: Parasite
Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
Lead Actress: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Lead Actor: Joaquin Phoenix/Joker
Supporting Actress: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Original Score: Joker
Casting: Joker
Cinematography: 1917
Editing: Ford v Ferrari
Production Design: 1917
Costume Design: Little Women
Makeup and Hair: Bombshell
Sound: 1917
Special Visual Effects: 1917


Complete coverage of the BAFTAs is linked here from Indiewire.



WRITERS GUILD AWARDS

The Writers Guild of America named the best in writing for film and television in a ceremony on Saturday night.  TFF #47's Parasite, written by Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin Won, was named the Best Original screenplay for 2019.  It's the first time in the guilds history that a script for a film in a language other than English has been named the recipient of the WGA award.

Meanwhile, the Adapted Screenplay award went to Taika Waititi for penning the adaptation of Caging Skies into Jojo Rabbit.

Both films' scripts are Oscar nominated. 

The complete Writers Guild winners list for film and television is linked here from Indiewire.



LATEST GURUS OF GOLD FOR FEATURE FILM OSCAR CATEGORIES

We Gurus have our latest round of collective predictions up for all 21 feature film categories over at Movie City News.  You can find that linked here.

If we Gurus are correct, at this point we are guessing that TFF #47 films win Oscars as follows:

Parasite (2): Best International Film, Best Film Editing
Ford v Ferrari (2): Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing
Judy (1): Best Actress: Renee Zellweger
Marriage Story (1): Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern

The rest of the 21 feature categories are currently predicted to go like this:

1917 (3): Picture, Director, Cinematography
Once Upon a Time (3): Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design
Joker (2): Actor, Original Score
Little Women (2): Adapted Screenplay, Costumes
American Factory: Documentary
Toy Story 4: Animated
Bombshell: Makeup/Hair
Avengers: Endgame: Visual Effects
Rocketman: Song


Couple of quick notes:  It feels to me like Parasite is making a late surge for Best Picture, Director and Original Screenplay.  Also seeming to be gathering some heat is Jojo Rabbit.

The latest complete Gurus of Gold is linked here.


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Oscar's Predicted Winners: The Big Eight / Another List of the Most Anticipated / Berlin Films Revealed

OSCAR'S PREDICTED WINNERS: THE BIG EIGHT

We're down to a week and a half to get to Oscar night, Feb. 9th.  With it bearing down, here's where I have predicted winners in the "Big Eight" categories.  As usual, I have indicated TFF #46 films in Bold.

BEST FILM

1) 1917
2) Parasite
3) Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
4) The Irishman
5) Jojo Rabbit
6) Joker
7) Marriage Story
8) Little Women
9) Ford v Ferrari

Notes:  I could still change this prediction easily when I get to FINAL PREDICTIONS on Sunday, Feb. 9th.  Despite 1917's PGA and DGA wins and Parasite's SAG Ensemble win, I still think this is a close race between those two films and I also think there's still a reasonable set of circumstances by which Once Upon a Time wins Best Picture.  Parasite remains TFF #46's best chance to have hosted the Best Picture winner.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Sam Mendes/1917
2) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite
3) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time...
4) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman
5) Todd Phillips/Joker

Notes: It's a two horse race between Mendes and Bong.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy
2) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story
3) Charlize Theron/Bombshell
4) Cynthia Erivo/Harriet
5) Saoirse Ronan/Little Women

Notes: It's Zellweger's to lose and she's not going to lose.

BEST ACTOR

1) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker
2) Adam Driver/Marriage Story
3) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory
4) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes
5) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time...

Notes: Phoenix is a lock.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story
2) Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit
3) Margot Robbie/Bombshell
4) Florence Pugh/Little Women
5) Kathy Bates/Richard Jewell

Notes: Get used to saying: "Oscar winner Laura Dern".

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...
2) Joe Pesci/The Irishman
3) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
4) Al Pacino/The Irishman
5) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes

Notes: Pitt might the most locked in the very locked acting categories.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Parasite
2) Once Upon a Time...
3) Marriage Story
4) 1917
5) Knives Out

Notes:  As much as there is no suspense in the acting categories...there is a ton of uncertainty here. Parasite and OUATIH are very, very tight and Marriage Story wouldn't be a huge surprise.  This will be one of those categories that separate Oscar pools...not that anyone bets on this kind of thing.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Little Women
2) Jojo Rabbit
3) The Irishman
4) Joker
5) The Two Popes

Notes: Just like Original Screenplay...this category is a barn burner as well.  Lots of thought that this is where The Academy awards Greta Gerwig in part because of her missing out on a directing nomination.  Jojo and The Irishman are right there, though.

Overall 14 of the 23 TFF #46 films' nominations are in these eight categories.



ANOTHER LIST OF THE MOST ANTICIPATED

This list of "most anticipated films for 2020 comes from Criterion.  THe films listed there are grouped in a variety of ways.  Some are grouped by distributor, some by country of origin and there are are methods.  Among the films listed, these feel most like TFF #47 options:

The Card Counter/Paul Schrader
Dune/Denis Villenueve
Untitled Velvet Underground Project/Todd Haynes
On the Rocks/Sophia Coppola
Mank/David Fincher
I'm Thinking of Ending Things/Charlie Kaufman
Blonde/Andrew Dominik
MacBeth/Joel Coen
Nomadland/Chloe Zhao
Ammonite/Frances Lee
Bergman Island/Mia Hansen Love
Charlatan/Agnieszka Holland

Note: Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch, which I have mentioned on a couple of these "Most Anticipated" lists has slipped off of them as it was announced yesterday that the film will be released on July 24th.

The complete list from Criterion is linked here.


BERLIN'S FILMS REVEALED

The Berlin International Film Festival has announced the bulk of its lineup for the 2020 edition.  The Berlin Fest is of note as we often see one or two titles from that fest announced as part of the Telluride lineup each Labor Day.

Among the films listed by Indiewire that will be playing in Germany, these jump out as TFF #47 potentials:

Irradiated/Rithy Panh
The Roads Not Taken/Sally Potter
There Is No Evil/Mohammad Rasoulof
The Salt of Tears/Philippe Garrel
Siberia/Abel Ferrara
Undine/Christian Petzold


Check out the complete Berlin lineup as reported by Indiewire here.


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Latest from The Gurus / DGA (and More) on Saturday / Improbable for TFF #47

LATEST FROM THE GURUS

The latest Gurus of Gold went up at Movie City News today .  You can took a good long look at the first real line from the Gurus regarding who/what we collectively think will win the Academy Award in the "Big Eight" categories in a couple of weeks.

The Latest Gurus is linked here.

My personal predictions looks as follows for these eight categories with TFF #46 films in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Once Upon A Time...in Hollywood

2) 1917 

3) Parasite 

4) The Irishman 

5) Joker 

6) Jojo Rabbit 

7) Marriage Story 

8) Little Women  

9) Ford v Ferrari 

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Sam Mendes/1917 

2) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite

3) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon A Time ... 

4) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman 

5) Todd Phillips/Joker 

BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy 

2) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story

3) Charlize Theron/Bombshell

4) Cynthia Erivo/Harriet

5) Saoirse Ronan/Little Women

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story

2) Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit

3) Kathy Bates/Richard Jewell

4) Margot Robbie/Bombshell

5) Florence Pugh/Little Women

BEST ACTOR

1) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker

2) Adam Driver/Marriage Story

3) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory

4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time...

5) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...

2) Joe Pesci/The Irishman

3) Al Pacino/The Irishman

4) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

5) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Once Upon A Time ... 

2) Parasite 

3) Marriage Story 

4) Knives Out 

5) 1917 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Little Women 

2) The Irishman

3) Jojo Rabbit 

4) The Two Popes 

5) Joker

DGA (AND MORE) ON SATURDAY

The next big Guild domino to fall prior to the Oscars is the Directors Guild of America which will announce its winners on Saturday.  Also announcing Saturday will be the USC Scripter Award for Adapted Screenplays as well as the American Society of Cinematographers and the Cinema Audio Society.

It'll be a big day of film awards news.

The DGA is likely a three way battle between Sam Mendes/1917, Bong Joon-ho/Parasite and Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood.

The ASC is likely going to award Roger Deakins for 1917.

The CAS is probably going to give their award for sound mixing to Ford v Ferrari especially since 1917 was not nominated by the organization.

The USC Scripter Award could land in the hands of Greta Gerwig for Little Women or perhaps Steve Zaillian for The Irishman.

We'll know on Saturday night and then assess if any of the awards were a surprise as well if any of the wins give us any more inkling about Oscar races.

IMPROBABLE FOR 47

As most MTFB know, TFF regularly schedules new films only if they will be appearing in North America for the first time.  There are exceptions here and there but they are rare. Recently Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea and Scott Z. Burns' The Report played Sundance first and then TFF. 

So the films that are announced for the Sundance Film Fest are almost always relegated to "ain't gonna play Telluride" status.

So, with that notion in mind, here's a quick scan of some films that are very likely not going to be TFF #47 bound as they have been announced for Sundance:

Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always
Zola
Downhill
Falling
Kajillionaire
The Glorias
The Last Thing He Wanted
Wendy
Worth

The complete Sundance program is here should want to explore.



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First Post-Oscar Nominations Gurus of Gold / Re-visiting My Oscar Analysis / Peering Into The Film Stage's Crystal Ball

FIRST POST-OSCAR NOMINATIONS GURUS OF GOLD

Over at Movie City News they've already corralled a majority of us Gurus to handicap the Oscar race for the winners in the 21 feature categories.  If the Gurus are right , this is the lowdown for what will win on Feb. 9th:

Picture: Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Director: Sam Mendes/1917. 

Actress: Renee Zellweger/Judy

Actor: Joaquin Phoenix/Joker

Supporting Actress: Laura Dern/Marriage Story

Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Original Screenplay: Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Adapted Screenplay: Little Women (I have Jojo Rabbit winning)

Doc: American Factory

Animated Feature: Toy Story 4

International Film: Parasite

Film Editing: The Irishman

Production Design: Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Cinematography: 1917

Costumes: Little Women (I Have Once Upon a Time winning)

Makeup/Hair: Bombshell

Visual Effects: The Lion King

Score: Joker

Song: I'm Gonna Love Me Again/Rocketman (I have Frozen II winning...for the moment)

Sound Editing: 1917 (I have Ford winning)

Sound Mixing: 1917 (I have Ford winning)

Categories that are tight: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Costume,Visual Effects, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

If the first pass is correct: Hollywood wins four, 1917 wins four, Little Women wins two, Joker wins two, Judy, The Irishman, Marriage Story, Bombshell, The Lion King, Rocketman, American Factory, Parasite,  and Toy Story 4 all win a single Oscar.

Check out the complete Gurus of Gold by clicking here and see the races that we think are close.

RE-VISITING MY OSCAR ANALYSIS

If you missed my take on Monday's Oscar nominations announcement, I've re-posted it here:

TFF #46 films snag 23 Oscar nominations:

Parasite-6- Picture, Director, International Film, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design.
Marriage Story-6- Picture, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Original Score
Ford v Ferrari-4- Picture, Film Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing
Two Popes-3- Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
Pain and Glory-2- International Film, Actor
Judy-2- Actress, Makeup/Hair


Nominations were led by Joker with 11.

The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and 1917 had 10 each.

Marriage Story, Little Women, Jojo Rabbit and Parasite each had six nominations.

My predictions 100 out of 124 for a success rate of 80.6%.  A little bit above my usual average.  My best categories (getting all of them correctly): Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Original Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing,).  My worst category: Costumes where I was an abysmal 2 of 5.

Categories where I had a nominee in the sixth spot: Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, International Film, Animated Feature, Film Editing, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Production Design, Live Action Short.

PEERING INTO THE FILM STAGE'S CRYSTAL BALL

As it does every year around this time, The Film Stage put out their list of 100 films that they say are their collective "Most Anticipated" for 2020.  That post went up on Jan. 9th.

As I do each year, I have parsed the list for films that seem to me to be TFF #47 possibilities. Here they are and where they were listed by The Film Stage on their list:

99) Those Who Wish Me Dead. Dir. Taylor Sheridan.

98) The Trail of the Chicago 7. Dir. Aaron Sorkin

92) Fireball. Dir. Werner Herzog

85) Summer '85. Dir. Francois Ozon

81) Good Morning Midnight. Dir. George Clooney

77) Stillwater. Dir. Tom McCarthy

69) One Second and Rock Solid. Dir. Zhang Yimou

65) News of the World. Dir. Paul Greengrass

64) Nightmare Alley. Dir. Guillermo Del Toro

57) The Winter Tiger. Dir. Ramin Bahrani

54) Untitled Velvet Underground Doc. Dir. Todd Haynes

53) Rebecca. Dir. Ben Wheatley

48) Mainstream. Dir. Gia Coppola

30) Dune. Dir. Denis Villeneuve

22) MacBeth. Dir. Joel Coen

16) Nomadland. Dir. Chloe Zhao

15) The French Dispatch. Dir. Wes Anderson

11) I'm Thinking of Ending Things. Dir. Charlie Kaufman

10) On the Rocks. Dir. Sophia Coppola

8) Mank. Dir. David Fincher

6) Bergman Island. Dir. Mia Hansen Love

The complete Film Stage list is linked here

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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92ND OSCAR NOMINATIONS-AND SOME ANALYSIS

Oscar Nominations...with Telluride films in Bold


Best Picture
1917 (Universal)
Ford v Ferrari (Fox)
The Irishman (Netflix)
Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
Joker (Warner Bros.)
Little Women (Sony)
Marriage Story (Netflix)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
Parasite (Neon)

Actor in a Leading Role
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Renée Zellweger (Judy)

Actress in a Supporting Role
Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Florence Pugh (Little Women)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)

Actor in a Supporting Role
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Directing
Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Todd Phillips (Joker)
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
Joker (Todd Phillips & Scott Silver)
Little Women (Greta Gerwig)
The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)

Original Screenplay
1917 (Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
Knives Out (Rian Johnson)
Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
Parasite (Bong Joon Ho and Jin Won Han)

International Feature Film
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Miserables (France)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)

Production Design
1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Film Editing
Ford v Ferrari (Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker)
The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Jojo Rabbit (Tom Eagles)
Joker (Jeff Groth)
Parasite (Jinmo Yang)

Cinematography
1917 (Roger Deakins)
The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
Joker (Lawrence Sher)
The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Robert Richardson)

Visual Effects
1917
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Costume Design
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Irishman
Joker
Little Women

Sound Mixing
1917
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Sound Editing
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Original Score
1917 (Thomas Newman)
Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
Little Women (Alexandre Desplat)
Marriage Story (Randy Newman)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Documentary Feature
American Factory (Netflix)
The Cave (National Geographic)
The Edge of Democracy (Netflix)
For Sama (PBS)
Honeyland (Neon)

Documentary Short Subject
In the Absence
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
Life Overtakes Me
St. Louis Superman
Walk Run Cha-Cha

Makeup and Hairstyling
1917
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Animated Feature Film
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks)
I Lost My Body (Netflix)
Klaus (Netflix)
Missing Link (United Artists Releasing)
Toy Story 4 (Pixar)

Animated Short Film
Dcera (Daughter)
Hair Love
Kitbull
Memorable
Sister

Live-Action Short Film
Brotherhood
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbors’ Window
Saria
A Sister

Original Song
"I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" (Toy Story 4) — Randy Newman
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" (Rocketman) — Elton John & Bernie Taupin
"I'm Standing With You" (Breakthrough) — Diane Warren
"Into the Unknown" (Frozen 2) — Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez
"Stand Up" (Harriet) — Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo


TFF #46 films snag 23 Oscar nominations:

Parasite-6- Picture, Director, International Film, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design.
Marriage Story-6- Picture, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Original Score
Ford v Ferrari-4- Picture, Film Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing
Two Popes-3- Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
Pain and Glory-2- International Film, Actor
Judy-2- Actress, Makeup/Hair


Nominations were led by Joker with 11.

The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and 1917 had 10 each.

Marriage Story, Little Women, Jojo Rabbit and Parasite each had six nominations.

My predictions 100 out of 124 for a success rate of 80.6%.  A little bit above my usual average.  My best categories (getting all of them correctly): Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Original Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing,).  My worst category: Costumes where I was an abysmal 2 of 5.

Categories where I had a nominee in the sixth spot: Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, International Film, Animated Feature, Film Editing, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Production Design, Live Action Short.

MTFB's First Oscar Stab for 2019 / TFF Oscar History Part Five-2000-2004 / All in One Place / Most Viewed of TFF #46 / Metacritic After T-ride, Venice and TIFF

MTFB'S FIRST OSCAR STAB FOR 2019

It's that time of year.  The festival has concluded, the Pros, People and their Composite ratings have been gathered calculated and reported.  The next TFF is 11 1/2 months away and Oscar season is upon us.

As many of you know, I've been asked to Guru the Oscars again this year for Movie City News' Gurus of Gold so expect to see links and references to that website as we head to Oscar night, Feb. 9, 2020.

So we turn the focus of this space from puzzling out and speculating about the Telluride lineup to puzzling out and speculating how that lineup figures into the race for Oscar glory.  

I'm opening this year's Oscar guessing game with my first prediction for nominations for Best Picture, Best Actress and Best Actor.  Films from TFF #46 are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) The Irishman

2) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

3) Marriage Story

4) Ford v. Ferrari

5) Parasite

6) 1917

7) JoJo Rabbit

8) The Farewell

9) The Two Popes

10) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Others: Little Women, Just Mercy, Joker, Waves, Judy, Ad Astra

BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy

2) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story

3) Cynthia Ervio/Harriet

4) Awkwafina/The Farewell

5) Alfre Woodard/Clemency

Others: Saoirse Ronan/Little Women, Lupita N'yongo/Us, Helen Mirren/The Good Liar

BEST ACTOR

1) Adam Driver/Marriage Story

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time...

3) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes

4) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker

5) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory

Others; Michael B. Jordan/Just Mercy, Robert DeNiro/The Irishman, Ian McKellan/The Good Liar

Next week I'll take a crack at the Supporting Acting categories and Best Director.

TFF OSCAR HISTORY PART FIVE-2000-2004

Here's the continuation of my project to chart every Oscar nominee in the 21 feature categories that played at the Telluride Film Festival since the first TFF in 1974.

So today we move to 2000-2004.  The number of nominations and wins are indicated in parentheses for each year.

2000 (17/4)

Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon- Foreign Language-WON, Original Score-WON, Cinematography-WON, Art/Set Direction-WON, Picture, Director-Ang Lee, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Costumes, Song

Quills- Actor-Geoffrey Rush, Costumes, Art/Set Direction

Sweet and Lowdown- Actor-Sean Penn, Supporting Actress-Samantha Morton

Shadow of the Vampire- Supporting Actor-Willem Dafoe, Makeup


2001 (7/1)

Amelie- Foreign Language, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Art/Set Direction, Sound

Mulholland Drive- Director- David Lynch

No Man's Land- Foreign Language- WON


2002 (13/4)

Frida- Score-WON, Makeup-WON, Actress- Salma Hayek, Song

City of God- Director-Fernando Meirelles, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography

Talk to Her- Original Screenplay-WON, Director- Pedro Almodovar

Spirited Away- Animated -WON

Bowling for Columbine- Documentary- WON

The Man Without a Past- Foreign Language


2003 (12/3)

The Barbarian Invasions- Foreign Language-WON, Original Screenplay

The Fog of War-Documentary-WON

Lost in Translation- Original Screenplay-WON, Picture, Director-Sophia Coppola, Actor-Bill Murray
Girl with a Pearl Earring- Costume, Cinematography, Art/Set Direction

The Triplets of Belleville- Animated, Song


2004 (3)

Being Julia- Actress-Annette Bening

The House of Flying Daggers- Cinematography

Kinsey- Supporting Actress-Laura Linney


ALL IN ONE PLACE

As a coda to this year's ratings averages from The People, The Professionals and The Composite...I have gathered them all here in one re-post as well as the current All Time Top Ten for each categorization as well:

THE PROFESSIONALS:

1) Parasite (4.75)
2) The Two Popes (4.42)
3) Marriage Story (4.40)
4) Waves (4.29)
5) A Hidden Life (4.20)
6) Portrait of a Lady on Fire (4.17)
7) Ford v. Ferrari (4.11)
8) The Report (3.87)
9) Pain and Glory (3.83)
10) Uncut Gems (3.78)
11) Motherless Brooklyn (3.58)
12) The Climb (3.50)
13) Judy (3.13)
14) The Aeronauts (3.08)
15) The Assistant (2.75)

TOP TEN SINCE 2012:

1) Moonlight (4.87) (16)
2) Parasite (4.75) (19)
3) Roma (4.73) (18)
4) Birdman (4.72) (14)
5) 12 Years a Slave (4.70-tie) (13)
6) Central Park Five (4.70-tie) (12)
7) Foxcatcher (4.63) (14)
8) La La Land (4.58) (16)
9) Argo (4.50-tie) (12)
9) The Shape of Water (4.50-tie) (17)
10) Son of Saul (4.44) (15)

THE PEOPLE:

1) The Two Popes (4.51)
2) Parasite (4.36)
3) Ford v. Ferrari (4.35)
4) Marriage Story (4.14)
5) Pain and Glory (3.81-Tie)
5) A Hidden Life (3.81-Tie)
7) Judy (3.80)
8) The Aeronauts (3.67)
9) The Report (3.66)
10) Motherless Brooklyn (3.64)
11) Lyrebird (3.62)
12) Waves (3.61)
13) Inside Bill's Brain (3.39)
14) Uncut Gems (3.22)
15) The Climb (3.07)
16) First Cow (3.02)

TOP TEN SINCE 2012

1) Stories We Tell (4.80) (12)
2) Argo (4.75) (12)-Won Best Picture
3) The Imitation Game (4.73) (14) Nominated Best Picture
4) The Attack (4.70) (12)
5) Tim's Vermeer (4.67) (13)
6) 12 Years a Slave (4.55) (13) Won Best Picture
7) The Two Popes (4.51) (19)
8) Roma (4.47) (15) TIE Nominated Best Picture
8) Room (4.47) (18) TIE Nominated Best Picture
10) Birdman (4.46) (14) Won Best Picture


THE COMPOSITE

1) Parasite (9.11) [2/1]
2) The Two Popes (8.93) [1/2]
3) Marriage Story (8.54) [4/3]
4) Ford v. Ferrari (8.46) [3/7]
5) A Hidden Life (8.01) [5/5]
6) Waves (7.90) [12/4]
7) Pain and Glory (7.63) [5/9]
8) The Report (7.53) [9/8]
9) Motherless Brooklyn (7.22) [10/11]
10) Uncut Gems (7.00) [14/10]
11) Judy (6.93) [7/13]
12) The Aeronauts (6.75) [8/14]
13) The Climb (6.57) [15/12]


TOP TEN SINCE 2012

1) 12 Years a Slave (9.25) 2013 Tie (Won Best Picture)
1) Argo (9.25) 2012 Tie (Won Best Picture)
3) Roma (9.20) 2018 (Won Best Foreign Language Film)
4) Moonlight (9.19) 2016 (Won Best Picture)
5) Birdman (9.18) 2014 (Won Best Picture)
6) Parasite (9.11) 2019
7) Stories We Tell (9.10) 2012
8) Tim's Vermeer (8.97) 2013
9) The Two Popes (8.93) 2019
10) La La Land (8.91) 2016 (Won Best Director)


MOST VIEWED OF TFF #46

Another metric of buzz and popularity that I just started looking at last year is the number of respondents to my Peoples poll that went to each film.  By that measure, Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story won the day.  Here are the top ten for this year expressed for each film as a percentage of the total number of respondents.

1) Marriage Story 71.43%
2) Motherless Brooklyn 58.57%
3) Uncut Gems 57.14%
4) Ford v. Ferrari 55.71%
5) Parasite 52.86%
6) Judy 50.00%
6) Waves 50.00%
8) The Report 48.57%
9) Lyrebird 47.14%
10) The Two Popes 44.29 %



METACRITIC AFTER TELLURIDE, VENICE AND TORONTO

Metacritic, the aggregate critic website, posted yesterday the composite critical ratings for several of the films that played at one of the triumvirate of film festivals just concluded.  I took the opportunity to cull those aggregate ratings for films that played at Telluride and here's what they reported:

1) Marriage Story 95 (actually, the top aggregate score for any film on the list from any of the three fests)
2) Uncut Gems 88
3) The Two Popes 83
4) Waves 81
5) The Kingmaker 77
6) First Cow 76
7) The Aeronauts 73
8) Ford v. Ferrari 71
9) Judy and The Assistant 65
11) Motherless Brooklyn 62


My guess as to the absence of films such as Parasite, The Report, Pain and Glory and others is that they were likely excluded having screened earlier at either Cannes or Sundance.

The complete article from Metacritic is linked here.


That's the MTFB for this Thursday.  More here on Monday.  Have a great weekend!

 EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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