Here we are...
After a shortened Oscar season window, the ceremony is a couple of weeks earlier than has been the case recently, we have arrived at the moment of truth. Hours from now Oscar nominees will become Oscar winners.
It's been a really interesting season especially in the race for Best Picture. In other cases, such as all four of the acting categories, if there is a winner besides the widely expected four that have been the leaders all season, it would be a major surprise.
Sooo...here they are...drumroll please...
BEST PICTURE
Winner: 1917
Maybe: Parasite or Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Note: The bare consensus among the Oscar experts is with 1917 but there is a strong current over the last couple of weeks in the direction of Parasite. Either win pleases me. I'd personally put 1917 at the top of my Oscar ballot if I had one and I'd love to see Parasite win to revive the "Telluride Effect". Two other quick points...I wouldn't be shocked if Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood won the big award tonight. I can envision it being the second or third choice on a lot of 1917 and Parasite ballots and it will get a healthy share of #1 ballots on its own. And...the latest stirring in the last week is a theory that Taika Waititi's Jojo Rabbit stuns tonight. I think that's a big stretch but as insane as Best Picture has been this year...who knows?
BEST DIRECTION
Winner: Sam Mendes/1917
Maybe: Bong Joon-ho/Parasite
BEST ACTRESS
Winner: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Maybe: Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story
BEST ACTOR
Winner: Joaquin Phoenix/Joker
Maybe: Adam Driver/Marriage Story
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Winner: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Maybe: Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Winner: Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...
Maybe: Joe Pesci/The Irishman
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Winner: Little Women
Maybe: Jojo Rabbit
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Winner: Parasite
Maybe: Once Upon a Time...
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Winner: parasite
Maybe: Pain and Glory
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Winner: American Factory
Maybe: For Sama
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Winner: Toy Story 4
Maybe: Klaus or I Lost My Body
BEST FILM EDITING
Winner: Ford v Ferrari
Maybe: Parasite
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Winner: 1917
Maybe: Joker
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Winner: I'm Gonna Love Me Again/Rocketman
Maybe: Stand Up/Harriet
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Winner: Joker
Maybe: 1917
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Winner: 1917
Maybe: Once Upon a Time...
BEST COSTUMES
Winner: Little Women
Maybe: Once Upon a Time...
BEST MAKEUP/HAIR
Winner: Bombshell
Maybe: Joker
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Winner: 1917
Maybe: The Irishman
BEST SOUND EDITING
Winner: 1917
Maybe: Ford v Ferrari
BEST SOUND MIXING
Winner: 1917
Maybe: Ford v Ferrari
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Winner: The Neighbor's WIndow
Maybe: Brotherhood
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Winner: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)
Maybe: St. Louis Superman
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Winner: Hair Love
Maybe: Kitbull
FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM OSCAR EXPERTS
Awards Daily Sasha says 1917 by an eyelash.
Awards Watch Awards Watch is picking Parasite to win Best Picture.
Variety Variety opts for 1917 to win BP.
The Playlist The Playlist says Parasite.
Deadline Deadline picks 1917.
The Hollywood Reporter THR picks 1917.
Indiewire Indiewire predicts Parasite to win.
The Los Angeles Times The LA Times says the winner will be 1917.
The New York Times The Times says it's 1917.
Time Time says it's time for 1917.
Awards Circuit AC says it will be 1917.
Entertainment Weekly EW predicts Parasite.
The Hollywood News. Hollywood News predicts Parasite.
The BBC The BBC says 1917 wins Best Pic.
Collider Collider predicts Parasite to win.
Vanity Fair The Vanity Fair experts lean toward 1917.
Vulture Vulture is in the Parasite camp.
The Toronto Star The Star is picking 1917.
And here are the two big Oscar expert collectives:
The Gurus of Gold We Gurus collectively are saying 1917. (You'll see that's what I predicted last weekend when we were canvassed for our Final Guru picks).
Gold Derby And Gold Derby's collective says it will be 1917.
I have TFF #46 films winning five total Oscars tonight:
Parasite: International Film, Original Screenplay
Best Actress: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Ford v Ferrari: Editing
TFF #46 films listed as the :Maybes: tonight include:
How will I do tonight? Here's a quick look back to my decade long Oscar prediction track record:
2019: 19/24
2018: 21/24
2017: 15/24
2016: 15/24
2015: 20/24
2014: 22/24
2013: 18/24
2012: 18/24
2011: 17/24
2010: 14/24
That's a total of 179/240 for a correct percentage rate of 74.6%
Stay tuned tonight. Like many of my friends in this business, I'll likely be tweeting here and there during the ceremony.
You can also expect an assessment of sorts in tomorrow morning's regularly scheduled post.
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