Oscar 2020-This and That / Other Oscar Takes: Analysis of What Went Down Sunday Night / An Early Look at Oscar for 2020 Films / Blog Updates

OSCAR 2020-THIS AND THAT

The dizziness from the Best Picture win for Bong Joon-ho's Parasite on Sunday night has begun to subside leaving a little clear-headedness to think about what occurred.

- Are the Oscars changed forever?  Does the diversification of the membership account for Parasite's success?  Maybe.  Perhaps the Oscars became a truly international award on Sunday.  You might argue that the internationalization has been creeping into the Oscar ceremony over the past decade.  Think of the Oscar Best Directors of recent years:

Hazanavicius/The Artist 2011
Lee/Life of Pi 2012
Cuaron/Gravity and Roma 2013 and 2018
Inarritu/Birdman and The Revenant 2014 and 2015
Del Toro/The Shape of Water 2017
and now Bong for Parasite.

Only Damien Chazelle  who won for La La Land (2016) hales from the USA.

It will be interesting to see if this trend continues.

-Parasite became the first film to win both International (or Foreign Language) Feature and Best Picture.

- Fully subtitled, I think it's the first Best Picture for which that is true although a friend of mine pointed out that past winners have included some sub-titling: Slumdog Millionaire, The Godfather films, Dances With Wolves.

- Parasite becomes the first Best Picture/Palme D'or combination winner since Marty in 1955.

- I took a look at how Telluride films have fared over the last decade in terms of total Oscar wins for each year.  Here's how that breaks down:

2019- 8
2018- 6
2017- 7
2016- 13 (this was the year of Moonlight, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and Arrival)
2015- 4
2014- 7
2013- 10 (Gravity and 12 Years a Slave)
2012- 5
2011- 7
2010- 7

That's 74 Oscar wins over the decade meaning that TFF films win 7.4 Oscars per year.  That means, thanks to Parasite, Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story and Judy, that this year's Oscar haul was better than average.  Best year, as you can see above, was 2016 with 13 , followed by 2013 with 10.  The most meager Oscar year was 2015 with four wins-that was the year of Spotlight.


OTHER OSCAR TAKES: ANALYSIS OF WHAT WENT DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT

In addition to my commentary about Oscar 2020 above I have also included some analysis posted this week from a couple of others.  Here they are:

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Ben Travers/Indiewire

Zack Sharf/Indiewire



AN EARLY LOOK AT OSCAR FOR 2020 FILMS

Photo from IMDb

Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture seemed to be the first up from an Oscar watching website with a rundown of films he thinks we'll be talking about a year from now as Oscar contenders.  There willy, be others coming soon and I'll include some of those early, early looks through the prism of what are films that might land at Telluride for TFF #47.

Among the films that Matt includes:

Aaron Sorkin's The Trial of the Chicago 7- IMDb says that it went into post-production last December.  Distrib: Paramount.  Release date: Sept. 25th

Paul Greengrass' News of the World- in post production last November.  Distrib: Universal.  Release: Dec. 25th.

David Fincher's Mank- in post this month.  Distrib: Netflix.  Release: TBA

Ron Howard's Hillbilly Elegy- in post last August. Distrib: Netflix.  Release November

Denis Villenueve's Dune- in post starting in July, 2019.  Distrib: Warner Bros.  Release: Dec. 18th.

Edgar Wright's Last Night in Soho- in post in August.  Distrib: Focus Features.  Release: Sept. 25th.

Lila Neugebauer's Red, White and Water- in post production in August.  Distrib: A24. Release: TBA

Francis Lee's Ammonite- in post since last April.  Distrib: Neon (coming off of Parasite this year).  Release: TBA

Guillermo Del Toro's Nightmare Alley- currently filming.  Distrib: Searchlight.  Release: TBA.

Chloe Zhao's Nomadland- in post since last March.  Distrib: Searchlight.  Release: TBA

The complete article is linked here including Matt's opening predictions for six major categories.


BLOG UPDATES

A Couple of bits of info.  I have updated the "Unofficial TFF Oscar History" page to reflect what occurred during the just concluded Oscar season.  Additionally, the "Selected TFF History" page has been updated to include the information from TFF #46.  Check those pages out. 

Still to come are the updates to the "Expanded Telluride Film Festival History-Part Two: 1996 to the Present.  I still have to synthesize the material from TFF programs for Fests from 2006-2019.  The links to the official online version of each of those programs are still on that page.



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And the Oscar Goes to...Parasite / The "Telluride Effect" Returns

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO... PARASITE

TFF #46 films in Bold

BEST PICTURE

Winner: Parasite 

BEST DIRECTION

Winner: Bong Joon-ho/Parasite

BEST ACTRESS

Winner: Renee Zellweger/Judy

BEST ACTOR

Winner: Joaquin Phoenix/Joker

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Winner: Laura Dern/Marriage Story

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Winner: Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Winner: Jojo Rabbit

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Winner: Parasite

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

Winner: Parasite

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Winner: American Factory

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Winner: Toy Story 4

BEST FILM EDITING

Winner: Ford v Ferrari

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Winner: 1917

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Winner: I'm Gonna Love Me Again/Rocketman

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Winner: Joker

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Winner: 1917

BEST COSTUMES

Winner: Little Women

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

Winner: Bombshell

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Winner: 1917

BEST SOUND EDITING

Winner: Ford v Ferrari

BEST SOUND MIXING

Winner: 1917

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Winner: The Neighbor's Window

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Winner: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Winner: Hair Love

Telluride films win eight Oscars: Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay and INternational Film for Parasite.  Film Editing and Sound Editing for Ford v Ferrari.  Best Actress for Renee Zellweger in Judy and Best Supporting Actress for Laura Dern in Marriage Story

My personal prediction rate for Oscar #92: 19 of 24 for a 79.2% rate almost exactly my prediction average for the last decades (79.6%)

Surprises were all but non-existent.  If you check out Sunday's predictions here you'll see that in every instance where I missed the film that won, the film I had listed as a "Maybe" picked up the trophy.

That said, the Parasite wins for directing and Best Picture were electrifying.  Parasite, as I noted yesterday, had clearly been gaining momentum and a lot of Oscar pundits did call for it to win.  Despite that, there was still a real sense of surprise in the hall, at least so it seemed to me, when Jane Fonda made the announcement.

Parasite's win is historic as it marks the first time in the Academy's history that a non-English language film has won Best Picture.  My bet is that the diversification initiative that the Academy has been pursuing regarding its membership over the past few years made Parasite's win a reality.  Additionally, as my friend Sasha Stone is fond of saying...Actors rule...and it feels like that branch of the Academy (its largest) made the difference over 1917 which had won awards from the PGA, DGA, Bafta and the Golden Globe for drama.




THE "TELLURIDE EFFECT" RETURNS

And, of course, Parasite's Best Picture win brings Telluride back into the conversation as an indispensable stop for films that are serious Oscar contenders.  The Telluride string was broken last year with Green Book's win but Parasite re-establishes TFF in the Oscar pantheon with the 10th Best Picture winner in the last 12 years having screened at the Fest prior to its winning the top honor.

You have to hand it to Tom Luddy, Julie Huntsinger and the rest of the crew that curates the fest's selections.  Parasite wins four Oscars plus Best Picture nominations for Marriage Story and Ford v Ferrari meaning that a full third of the BP nominees played Telluride plus The Two Popes which may well have been the 10th place film in initial balloting.  Don't forget Renee Zellweger's Best Actress winning turn in Judy which bowed at Telluride before anywhere else and Laura Dern's win for Best Supporting Actress.


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FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS IN ALL 24 CATEGORIES / FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM OSCAR EXPERTS

FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS

Here we are...

After a shortened Oscar season window, the ceremony is a couple of weeks earlier than has been the case recently, we have arrived at the moment of truth.  Hours from now Oscar nominees will become Oscar winners.

It's been a really interesting season especially in the race for Best Picture.  In other cases, such as all four of the acting categories, if there is a winner besides the widely expected four that have been the leaders all season, it would be a major surprise.

Sooo...here they are...drumroll please...

BEST PICTURE

Winner: 1917
Maybe: Parasite or Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Note:  The bare consensus among the Oscar experts is with 1917 but there is a strong current over the last couple of weeks in the direction of Parasite.  Either win pleases me.  I'd personally put 1917 at the top of my Oscar ballot if I had one and I'd love to see Parasite win to revive the "Telluride Effect".  Two other quick points...I wouldn't be shocked if Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood won the big award tonight.  I can envision it being the second or third choice on a lot of 1917 and Parasite ballots and it will get a healthy share of #1 ballots on its own.  And...the latest stirring in the last week is a theory that Taika Waititi's Jojo Rabbit stuns tonight.  I think that's a big stretch but as insane as Best Picture has been this year...who knows?

BEST DIRECTION
Winner: Sam Mendes/1917
Maybe: Bong Joon-ho/Parasite

BEST ACTRESS
Winner: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Maybe: Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story

BEST ACTOR
Winner: Joaquin Phoenix/Joker
Maybe: Adam Driver/Marriage Story

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Winner: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Maybe: Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Winner: Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...
Maybe: Joe Pesci/The Irishman

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Winner: Little Women
Maybe: Jojo Rabbit

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Winner: Parasite
Maybe: Once Upon a Time...

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Winner: parasite
Maybe: Pain and Glory

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Winner: American Factory
Maybe: For Sama

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Winner: Toy Story 4
Maybe: Klaus or I Lost My Body

BEST FILM EDITING
Winner: Ford v Ferrari
Maybe: Parasite

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Winner: 1917
Maybe: Joker

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Winner: I'm Gonna Love Me Again/Rocketman
Maybe: Stand Up/Harriet

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Winner: Joker
Maybe: 1917

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Winner: 1917
Maybe: Once Upon a Time...

BEST COSTUMES
Winner: Little Women
Maybe: Once Upon a Time...

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR
Winner: Bombshell
Maybe: Joker

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Winner: 1917
Maybe: The Irishman

BEST SOUND EDITING
Winner: 1917
Maybe: Ford v Ferrari

BEST SOUND MIXING
Winner: 1917
Maybe: Ford v Ferrari

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Winner: The Neighbor's WIndow
Maybe: Brotherhood

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Winner: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)
Maybe: St. Louis Superman

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Winner: Hair Love
Maybe: Kitbull


FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM OSCAR EXPERTS

Awards Daily Sasha says 1917 by an eyelash.

Awards Watch Awards Watch is picking Parasite to win Best Picture.

Variety  Variety opts for 1917 to win BP.

The Playlist  The Playlist says Parasite.

Deadline Deadline picks 1917.

The Hollywood Reporter THR picks 1917.

Indiewire  Indiewire predicts Parasite to win.

The Los Angeles Times  The LA Times says the winner will be 1917.

The New York Times  The Times says it's 1917.

Time Time says it's time for 1917.

Awards Circuit  AC says it will be 1917.

Entertainment Weekly  EW predicts Parasite.

The Hollywood News.  Hollywood News predicts Parasite.

The BBC  The BBC says 1917 wins Best Pic.

Collider Collider predicts Parasite to win.

Vanity Fair The Vanity Fair experts lean toward 1917.

Vulture   Vulture is in the Parasite camp.

The Toronto Star  The Star is picking 1917.

And here are the two big Oscar expert collectives:

The Gurus of Gold  We Gurus collectively are saying 1917.  (You'll see that's what I predicted last weekend when we were canvassed for our Final Guru picks).

Gold Derby  And Gold Derby's collective says it will be 1917.

I have TFF #46 films winning five total Oscars tonight:

Parasite: International Film, Original Screenplay
Best Actress: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Ford v Ferrari: Editing

TFF #46 films listed as the :Maybes: tonight include:


How will I do tonight?    Here's a quick look back to my decade long Oscar prediction track record:

2019: 19/24
2018: 21/24
2017: 15/24
2016: 15/24
2015: 20/24
2014: 22/24
2013: 18/24
2012: 18/24
2011: 17/24
2010: 14/24

That's a total of 179/240 for a correct percentage rate of  74.6%

Stay tuned tonight.  Like many of my friends in this business, I'll likely be tweeting here and there during the ceremony.

You can also expect an assessment of sorts in tomorrow morning's regularly scheduled post.

Oscar Predictions Update: Best Picture, Director, Screenplays / Latest Gurus of Gold / An MTFB First / Trailer for The Climb / Tapley Podcasts Baumbach

OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Picture, Director and Screenplays.  TFF #46 films are indicated in Bold.

BEST PICTURE (last updated 12/16)

1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)

2) The Irishman (2)

3) Parasite (3)

4) 1917 (4)

5) Marriage Story (5)

6) Jojo Rabbit (6)

7) Joker (7)

8) Ford v Ferrari (8)

9) Bombshell (-)

10) The Two Popes (9)

Other possibles: The Farewell, Little Women. Knives Out

BEST DIRECTION (last updated 12/9)

1) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time... (2)

2) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite (4)

3) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman (3)

4) Sam Mendes/1917 (1)

5) Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story (5)

6) Todd Phillips/Joker (-)

Other possibles: James Mangold/Ford v Ferrari, Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit, Fernando Merrielle's/The Two Popes

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (last updated 12/9)

1) The Irishman (1)

2) Jojo Rabbit (3)

3) The Two Popes (2)

4) Little Women (5)

5) Joker (4)

6) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (6)

Other possibles: Hustlers, Richard Jewell, Just Mercy, Dolemite Is My Name

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (last updated 12/9)

1) Marriage Story (1)

2) Once Upon a Time... (2)

3) Parasite (3)

4) The Farewell (4)

5) Knives Out (5)

6) Uncut Gems (6)

Other possibles: Bombshell, 1917, Pain and Glory, Ford v Ferrari

LATEST GURUS OF GOLD

Movie City News has posted its latest edition of the Gurus of Gold focused on the Big Eight categories of Best Picture, Direction, all four Acting categories as well as both screenplay categories.

Here's the link to the latest Gurus.

As mentioned here before, I'm serving my second year as a Guru.  Also included as Gurus this year are some Oscar predicting heavyweights:  Sasha Stone of Awards Daily, Dave Karger of Turner Classic Movies and IMDb, Peter Howell of The Toronto Star, Jeff Sneider of Collider, Gregory Ellwood of The Playlist and Mark Johnson of Awards Watch among others.

You might notice that my Guru picks and my own posted on the blog here today may not line up exactly...Why?  Time.  My Guru picks were sent in a few days ago, whereas I worked on the freshest picks for today's blog post yesterday and this morning.


AN MTFB FIRST

Well...what do you know?

I've been plugging away at this Blog thing since August of 2008.  Lots of cool things have happened as a result of this little experience but had a first this week.

I had an Oscar screener land in my email this week.   No...no...it's not Little Women or 1917...

It's a link for a short listed Oscar Short form Documentary film.  The film: Yo Seung-Jun's In the Absence.  The description included in the email describes the focus of the doc as follows:

"When the passenger ferry MV Sewol sank off the coast of South Korea in 2014, over three hundred people lost their lives, most of them schoolchildren. Years later, the victims’ families and survivors are still demanding justice from national authorities."

The short film's IMDb page is linked here.

According to accompanying material the film screened at DOC NYC and AFI Docs.

Oscar winner Laura Poitras (Citizen Four) is one of the Executive Producers of the film.

I plan to get it in over the holiday break.  I'll get back to you about it soon.


TRAILER FOR THE CLIMB

Sony Pictures Classics has released a trailer for low key buddy dramedy The Climb.  The film had a modest reception at Telluride.  It's set for release on Mar. 20th.  Here's the trailer from YouTube:

TAPLEY PODCASTS BAUMBACH

Kris Tapley has put together another of his series of podcasts for Netflix under the name of The Call Sheet.  The latest features an outing with Marriage Story director and scribe Noah Baumbach.

That podcast is linked here.

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Oscar Prediction Update: Best Director / Oscar History and TFF: Best Foreign Language-International Film / The Two Popes Has a Trailer

OSCAR PREDICTION UPDATE: BEST DIRECTOR

Here are my current predictions for the Best Direction Oscar with the past prediction listed in the parentheses.  TFF #46 films are in Bold.

1) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (1)

2) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite (3)

3) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman (1)

4) Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story (4)

5) Sam Mendes/1917 (-)

Other Possibles: Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit, Fernando Meirellles/The Two Popes, Todd Phillips/Joker, Greta Gerwig/Little Women, Lulu Wang/The Farewell

Notes:  A bit of shuffling at the top with Bong Joon-ho and Tarantino in a dead heat and Scorsese close behind. Also, there's been a fairly substantial surge for Sam Mendes and 1917.

OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF-FOREIGN LANGUAGE/INTERNATIONAL FILM

Here's my continuation of the complete series of nominations for TFF films for each of the 21 feature film categories.  Today's review is for the recently renamed film category that has been called Foreign Language Film and has been renamed International Feature beginning with this year's Oscars.

Here's the history:

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1981- Three Brothers
1983- Carmen, Entre Nous
1984- Camila
1985- Colonel Redl
1986- The Decline of the American Empire, My Secret Little Village
1987- Babbette's Feast-WINNER, Au Revoir Les Enfants
1988- Salaam Bombay, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
1989- Cinema Paradiso-WINNER
1990- Cyrano de Bergerac, The Nasty Girl, Ju Don
1991- Raise the Red Lantern, Oxen
1993- Farewell My Concubine
1994- Dust of Life, Strawberry and Chocolate
1996- Koyla
1998- Central Station, Tango
2000- Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon-WINNER
2001- Amelie, No Man's Land
2002- Man Without a Past
2003- The Barbarian Invasions
2005- Paradise Now
2006- The Lives of Others-WINNER
2007- The Counterfeiters-WINNER
2008- Waltz with Bashir, Revanche
2009- The White Ribbon, A Prophet
2010- Incendies
2011- A Separation-WINNER, In Darkness, Footnote
2012- Amour-WINNER, A Royal Affair, No
2014- Ida- WINNER, Leviathan, Wild Tales
2015- Son of Saul-WINNER
2016- Toni Erdmann
2017- A Fantastic Woman, The Insult, Loveless
2018- Roma-WINNER, Cold War, Shoplifters

Overall 53 nominations and 10 wins.


THE TWO POPES HAS A TRAILER

Fernando Meirelles' The Two Popes debuted at Telluride over Labor Day weekend to a great response.  I've said it before, by the time I got to the last day and a half of the fest the film I was hearing the most buzz about was The Two Popes.

Now Netflix, prepping the film for its release on Nov. 27th followed by its Netflix bow on Dec. 20th, has dropped a new trailer for the film.

Here's that from YouTube:

Also, here's the link to the story about the trailer release from The Hollywood Reporter.


As a bonus, here's a link to an interview with Two Popes screenwriter Anthony McCarten from Gold Derby.


That's Thursday.


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Oscar Predictions Update: Best Supporting Actress / Bong Joon Ho Talks Parasite / Marriage Story Has New Looks / Off the Radar... / Beanpole Teaser Appears / Adam Sandler Talks Uncut Gems

OSCAR PREDICTION UPDATE: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

I last checked in on the Best Supporting Actress Oscar race on Sept. 25th.  Here's the new update for the category with the actor's previous position in parentheses.  Performances from TFF #46 films are in Bold.

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story (1)

2) Jennifer Lopez/Hustlers (2)

3) Margot Robbie/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (3)

4) Margot Robbie/Bombshell (-)

5) Annette Bening/The Report (4)

Other Possibles: Thomasin McKenzie/Jojo Rabbit, Maggie Smith/Downton Abbey, Shuzhen Zhao/The Farewell, Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit

Notes: Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) and Taylor Russell (Waves) have, for the moment, waned over the last month or so.  The Margot Robbie double mention is likely to shake down to one or the other.  My guess going forward is that she's more likely to get a nomination for Bombshell.  We'll see.

BONG JOON HO TALKS PARASITE

My friend Tomris Laffly had a fantastic interview with Parasite director Bong Joon Ho at rogerebert.com this past week.  Parasite is, perhaps, the most talked about film that appeared at TFF #46.  It's a critical darling (Metacritic has it at 95).  The film was already hot after its Palme d"Or win at Cannes in May and the heat has steadily increased as it has moved through the fall fest season toward its eventual U.S. release this past week.

Here's the link to the interview.

MARRIAGE STORY HAS NEW LOOKS

Netflix unveiled a new trailer and a new poster for Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story recently.  Here's the new poster featuring the "Official Selection of the Telluride Film Festival" banner:

And here from YouTube is the new trailer for the film:

And a reminder here that I'm on the tank for a Best Supporting Actress nomination for Julie Hagerty and maybe a Supporting Actor nod for Ray Liotta.

OFF THE RADAR...

Not long ago we ran across the news that Alexander Payne was readying his next project to star Mads Mikkelsen.  As you might surmise, I immediately put it on my watch list as a possible, nee, probable  selection for TFF #47 owing to Payne's past with the fest.

Now, however, that seems to have gone away as Deadline reports that the project has fallen apart.  Mike Fleming revealed late this week that the Norwegian journalist upon which the project is based terminated his agreement to make the film.  The decision came with mere days left before the film was scheduled to begin filming.

The Deadline.com story is linked here.


BEANPOLE TEASER APPEARS

Russian entrant for the newly re-named Best International Oscar category, Kantemir Bugalov's Beanpole has an U.S. teaser.  Kino Lorber dropped that last week and I have it here for you via YouTube:

Demitra Kampakis has a lengthy interview with Bugalov at The Film Stage which you will find linked here.

ADAM SANDLER TALKS UNCUT GEMS

Leah Greenblatt/Entertainment Weekly talked to the star of the Safdie Brothers new film Uncut Gems which has Sandler some of the best reviews of his career after first screening at the Telluride Film Festival.

That article is linked here

Going to call this done for today.

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Oscar History and TFF: Best Actress / Oscar Predictions: Best Director Update / International Feature Long List

OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: BEST ACTRESS

Jane Alexander in Testament...the first Best Actress nominee from a TFF film

I'm turning now to a breakdown of the history between TFF and The Academy Awards as related to each of the feature categories.  Today I bring you the Best Actress nominees from films that have screened at the festival since its inception in 1974:

1983- Jane Alexander/Testament
1991- Laura Dern/Rambling Rose
1993- Holly Hunter/The Piano
1996- Brenda Blethyn/Secrets and Lies, Emily Watson/Breaking the Waves
1998-Fernanda Montenegro/Central Station
2002- Salma Hayek/Frida
2004- Annette Bening/Being Julia
2005- Reese Witherspoon/Walk the Line-WINNER
2006- Kate Winslet/Little Children, Penelope Cruz/Volver
2007- Ellen Page/Juno
2009- Carey Mulligan/An Education, Helen Mirren/The Last Station
2010- Natalie Portman/Black Swan-WINNER
2011- Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs
2012- Emanuelle Riva/Amour
2013- Sandra Bullock/Gravity
2014- Reese Witherspoon-Wild, Marion Cotillard/Two Days One Night
2015- Brie Larson/Room-WINNER, Cate Blanchett/Carol, Charlotte Rampling/45 Years
2016- Emma Stone/La La Land-WINNER
2017- Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water, Saorise Ronan/Lady Bird
2018- Olivia Colman/The Favourite-WINNER, Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Yalitza Aparicio/Roma

Overall 29 nominations for Best Actress with five winners including three of the last four.

OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST DIRECTOR UPDATED

Here are my current predictions for the Best Direction Oscar with the past prediction listed in the parentheses.  TFF #46 films are in Bold.

Bong Joon-Ho/Parasite

1) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (1)

2) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman (5)

3) Bong Joon-Ho/Parasite (2)

4) Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story (3)

5) Taika Waititi/JoJo Rabbit (-)

6) Lulu Wang/The Farewell (-)

Other Possibles: Sam Mendes/1917, Marielle Heller/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Fernando Meirelles/The Two Popes, James Mangold/Ford v. Ferrari

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE LONG LIST

93 films have been submitted for the newly named Best International Film category (formerly Best Foreign Language Films.  Of the 93, I have only identified three that played at TFF #46:

Parasite/South Korea

Pain and Glory/Spain

Beanpole/Russia

Other serious contenders that were chosen are thought to be:

Monos/Colombia

Les Miserables/France

Verdict/Philippines

The Whistlers/Romania

Atlantics/Senegal

The complete list of all 93 films is linked here from Variety.

That's your Thursday.

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Added on Aug. 30, 2022 at 2:18 pm CDT:  Spielberg's Fabelmans to play Telluride in 2022.

Oscar Predictions: Direction and Supporting Actors / Oscar and TFF History Part Seven / Interviews from TFF #46 Films / Uncut Gems Cuts a Trailer / 63 Up Trailer

OSCAR PREDICTIONS: DIRECTION AND SUPPORTING ACTORS

Here's the next installment of my initial Oscar nomination predictions for this year.  Today's focus is on Best Direction and the Supporting Acting categories.  Films from TFF #46 are indicated in Bold.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
2) Bong Joon Ho/Parasite
3) Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story
4) Sam Mendes/1917
5) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman

Other Possibles: Lulu Wang/The Farewell, James Mangold/Ford v. Ferrari, Greta Gerwig/Little Women, Fernando Meirelles/The Two Popes, Marielle Heller/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story
2) Jennifer Lopez/Hustlers
3) Margot Robbie/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
4) Annette Bening/The Report
5) Shuzen Zhao/The Farewell

Other Possibles: Nicole Kidman/Bombshell, Taylor Russell/Waves, Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
2) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
3) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes
4) Al Pacino/The Irishman
5) Willem Dafoe/The Lighthouse

Other Possibles: Alan Alda/Marriage Story, Christian Bale/Ford v. Ferrari, John Lithgow/Bombshell, Sterling K. Brown/Waves

OSCAR AND TFF HISTORY PART SEVEN: 2010-2014

My review of the history between The Academy Awards and the Telluride Film Festival continues today with the nominees and winners for the 21 feature categories of the Oscars from 2010-2014.  The total number of nominations and winners for each year are listed for that year in parentheses.

2010 (31/5)

The King's Speech- Picture-WON, Actor-Colin Firth-WON, Director-Tom Hooper-WON, Original Screenplay-WON, Supporting Actor-Geoffrey Rush, Supporting Actress-Helena Bonham Carter, Cinematography, Film Editing, Score, Costume, Art Direction, Sound Mixing

127 Hours- Picture, Actor-James Franco, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Score, Song

Black Swan- Actress-Natalie Portman-WON, Picture, Director-Darren Aronofsky, Cinematography, Film Editing

Inside Job-Documentary-WON

Biutiful- Actor-Javier Bardem

Another Year-Original Screenplay

Incendies- Foreign Language

Chico and Rita-Animated

The Illusionist- Animated

The Way Back-Makeup


2011 (23/7)

The Artist- Picture-WON, Actor-Jean Dujardin-WON, Director-Michel Hazanazvicius-WON, Score-WON, Costume-WON, Supporting Actress-Berenice Bejo, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Art Direction

The Descendants- Adapted Screenplay-WON, Picture, Actor-George Clooney, Director-Alexander Payne, Film Editing

A Separation- Foreign Language-WON, Original Screenplay

Albert Nobbs- Actress-Glenn Close, Supporting Actress-Janet McTeer, Makeup

Footnote- Foreign Language

In Darkness- Foreign Language

Pina- Documentary


2012 (15/4)

Argo- Picture-WON, Adapted Screenplay-WON, Film Editing-WON, Supporting Actor-Alan Arkin, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing

Amour- Foreign Language-WON, Picture, Director, Actress-Emanuelle Riva, Original Screenplay

A Royal Affair- Foreign Language

No- Foreign Language

The Gatekeepers- Documentary


2013 (32/10)

12 Years a Slave- Picture-WON, Supporting Actress-Lupita N'yongo-WON, Adapted Screenplay-WON, Actor-Chiwetel Ejiofor, Supporting Actor-Michael Fassbender, Director-Steve McQueen, Film Editing, Production Design, Costume

Gravity- Director-Alfonso Cuaron-WON, Score-WON, Cinematography-WON, Film Editing-WON, Sound Mixing-WON, Sound Editing-WON, Visual Effects-WON, Picture, Actress-Sandra Bullock, Production Design

Nebraska-Picture, Actor-Bruce Dern, Supporting Actress-June Squibb, Director-Alexander Payne, Original, Screenplay, Cinematography

Inside Llewyn Davis- Cinematography, Sound Mixing

Prisoners- Cinematography

Invisible Woman- Costume

The Missing Picture-Documentary

The Wind Rises- Animated

All Is Lost- Sound Editing


2014 (29/6)


Birdman- Picture-WON, Director- Alejandro Inarritu-WON, Original Screenplay-WON, Cinematography-WON, Actor- Michael Keaton, Supporting Actress-Emma Stone, Supporting Actor-Edward Norton, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing

The Imitation Game- Adapted Screenplay-WON, Picture, Actor-Benedict Cumberbatch, Supporting Actress-Keira Knightley, Film Editing, Score, Production Design

Ida- Foreign Language-WON

Foxcatcher- Actor-Steve Carell, Supporting Actor-Mark Ruffalo, Director-Bennett Miller, Original Screenplay, Makeup

Wild- Actress-Reese Witherspoon, Supporting Actress-Laura Dern

Two Days One Night- Actress-Marion Cotillard

Leviathan-Foreign Language

Wild Tales-Foreign Language

Salt of the Earth-Documentary


INTERVIEWS FROM TFF #46 FILMS

Included here are interviews from the last couple of weeks from folks that were involved in films that played as a part of the 46th Telluride Film Festival:


RENEE ZELLWEGER/JUDY

From Time.com

From The Hollywood Reporter

From Entertainment Weekly


EDWARD NORTON/MOTHERLESS BROOKLYN

From The Wrap


MATT DAMON AND CHRISTIAN BALE/FORD V. FERRARI

From Entertainment Weekly


ANTONIO BANDERAS/PAIN AND GLORY

From The Wrap


VALERIE PACHNER AND AUGUST DIEHL/A HIDDEN LIFE

From The Wrap



UNCUT GEMS CUTS A TRAILER

We git a trailer for the Safdie Brothers' Uncut Gems yesterday featuring Adam Sandler in a performance that is generating some Oscar buzz.  Here's the trailer from YouTube:

Uncut Gems opens on Dec. 25th.



TRAILER FOR 63 UP

Michael Apted's on-going project of  following a group of people that he first had contact with back in 1964 continued at TFF #46.  Apted has re-visited that group every seven years since then.

This year's version is titled 63 Up and it has a trailer that was released earlier this month.

Here that is from YouTube:

That's your MTFB for this Thursday.  I'll be back after the weekend with more.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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The Distributors 2019: Neon / Pico Iyer Will Lead Us / First Gaze at Little Women

Good Thursday to all...


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: NEON

Film distribution company NEON has come on like gangbusters in the past couple of years.  Their The B Side: Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography played Telluride in 2016.  NEON also played with Border and The Biggest Little Farm last year.  Additionally NEON ended up as the distributor for the Aretha Franklin documentary Amazing Grace which was expected to play TFF in both 2015 and 2016 but, due to legal issues did not.

So...it's not a lengthy Telluride resume but it is relatively intense of late.  As a matter of fact, their emergence is so recent I didn't even handicap their chances with films last year and as you can see above, they landed two.

Now, as we're assessing the 2019 landscape, NEON seems poised to make a splash again this year as they have acquired two huge titles from Cannes.  Palme d'Or winner Parasite and Best Screenplay winner at Cannes: Portrait of a Lady on Fire.  At the moment, these two films seem to be the only two NEON films with a shot at TFF #46.

I'm bullish on the chances for both films to make it to the 2019 version of The SHOW

Chances...

Parasite 60%
Portrait of a Lady on Fire 60%

More distribution analysis tomorrow.


PICO IYER WILL LEAD US

The Telluride Film Festival officially announced that author Pico Iyer will serve as Guest Director this year.

Here's the text of the official announcement:

BERKELEY, CA – Telluride Film Festival (TFF), presented by National Film Preserve LTD., is proud to announce its 2019 Guest Director, Pico Iyer. The celebrated author is set to select a series of films to present at the 46th Telluride Film Festival running over Labor Day Weekend, August 30 through September 2, 2019.

Festival organizers annually select one of the world’s great film enthusiasts to join them in the creation of the Festival’s program lineup. The Guest Director serves as a key collaborator in the Festival’s programming decisions, bringing new ideas and overlooked films to Telluride. In keeping with Telluride Film Festival tradition, Iyer’s film selections, along with the rest of the Telluride lineup, will be kept secret until Opening Day.

“Pico is a tremendously gifted writer with unrivaled wit,” said TFF Executive Director Julie Huntsinger. “His enthusiasm for film, especially within his writing, has buoyed and enchanted us. It has made working with him to create this year’s Guest Director program a particularly delightful experience. Both Tom Luddy and I are thrilled to have him with us this year.”

Pico Iyer is the author of two novels and thirteen works of non-fiction. His books have been translated into 23 languages and both his 2008 meditation on the XIVth Dalai Lama, The Open Road, and his TED Book, The Art of Stillness, were best sellers across the U.S. They have also made him a Guggenheim Fellow, a Pulitzer Prize nominee and a finalist for the Los Angeles Times Book Prize.

An essayist for Time since 1986, he is a constant contributor to The New York Times, The New York Review of Books, Harper’s and more than 200 other newspapers and magazines worldwide, and he has published introductions to 70 other works.

Iyer has also written many liner-notes for Leonard Cohen, essays for several Criterion Collection DVDs and a screenplay for Miramax. His writing on Malick, Farhadi, Bertolucci, Scorsese and many other filmmakers has appeared all over, and his writing on movie studios from North Korea to Hyderabad has borne out The New Yorker’s assertion that “As a guide to far-flung places, he can hardly be surpassed.”

Born in Oxford, England, in 1957, Iyer was educated at Eton, Oxford and Harvard. This year he’s been serving as Ferris Professor of Journalism at Princeton.

“In the times I’ve been to the Festival I’ve seen as many rich and original films in three days as I get to watch in the next twelve months combined,” said Iyer. “So when Tom and Julie asked if I might be willing to serve as Guest Director this year, I felt as stunned and delighted as if I’d been given the keys to the kingdom. Movies have actually been my secret passion for as long as the Telluride Film Festival has been around. But nobody had intuited this until Tom and Julie, a dream team of sorts, sensed my excitement and offered me a chance to share my enthusiasms and passions with others. The invitation to help choose films for the Festival this year was the most exciting one I can remember receiving; I only hope I can pass on a fraction of the delight that I have found at Telluride to others in this inspiring community.”

Past Guest Directors include Jonathan Lethem, Joshua Oppenheimer, Volker Schlöndorff, Rachel Kushner, Guy Maddin, Caetano Veloso, Michael Ondaatje, Alexander Payne, Salman Rushdie, Peter Bogdanovich, B. Ruby Rich, Phillip Lopate, Errol Morris, Bertrand Tavernier, John Boorman, John Simon, Buck Henry, Laurie Anderson, Stephen Sondheim, G. Cabrera Infante, Peter Sellars, Don DeLillo, J.P. Gorin, Edith Kramer and Slavoj Žižek.

The Guest Director program is sponsored by Turner Classic Movies (TCM). Considered throughout the industry as one of the leading authorities on classic film, the network presents great films, uncut and commercial-free, highlighting the entire spectrum of film history.

FIRST GAZE AT LITTLE WOMEN


Vanity Fair revealed a first look at still photography from Greta Gerwig's highly anticipated adaptation of Louisa Mae Alcott's classic Little Women.

The film stars Meryl Streep, Saoirse Ronan, Emma Watson, Florence Pugh, Timothee Chalamet, Bob Odenkirk and Laura Dern. 

The film is being shepherded by Sony/Columbia nd is due for release on Dec. 25th.

Here's a taste of the visuals from Vanity Fair:

For a view of more of the stills and the article the accompanies them at Vanity Fair click here.

That's the Thursday MTFB.  More tomorrow.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Cannes’ Award Winners and Telluride 2019 / The Critical Final from Cannes

Welcome to today’s post Cannes MTFB...


CANNES AWARD WINNERS AND TELLURIDE 2019

The 72nd iteration of the Cannes Film Festival is in the books with the announcement of award winners Saturday night.  Taking the 2019 Palme d’Or was Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite.  The film was critically heralded and was considered among the favorites to win the top prize as the festival moved along.

Other Cannes awards presented by the competition jury led by this year’s president- Alejandro Inarritu- included:

Grand Prix: Atlantics
Jury Prize (tie): Les Miserables and Bacurau
Best Actress: Emily Beecham/Little Joe
Best Actor: Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory
Best Director: Jean Pierre Dardennes and Luc Dardennes/Young Ahmed
Best Screenplay: Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Special Mention: It Must Be Heaven
Camera d’Or: Our Mothers

Honestly, my guess had been that Pedro Almodovar’s Pain and Glory would win the Palme.  Also, no glory for Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood which was a bit surprising given that it was probably the "biggest" film in the competition and also it was also the 25th anniversary of Pulp Fiction winning the Palme.

Also, a shutout for Terrence Malick’s generally well-received A Hidden Life was a bit of a surprise.
So, what are the TFF #46 chances for some of the winners?

First a reminder that winning the Palme itself is no guarantee that a film lands at Telluride.  Another reminder is that Cannes and T-ride share, on average, 7-8 titles each year but those titles can and do come from across all of the different sections of the Cannes fest.

Last year’s Palme winner, Shoplifters did play TFF but before that you have to go back to 2013’s Blue Is the Warmest Colour.

Other recent Palme winners that have played Telluride include:

Amour in 2012
The White Ribbon in 2009
4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days in 2007
The Child in 2005
That's six Palme winners in the last 14 years...

So, history suggests that Parasite’s Palme win doesn’t mean a TFF berth and seems to imply it may be less likely to be programmed.  Additionally, as Bong hasn’t been a presence at T-ride before, that also diminished its chances.

Boosting its TFF profile, however, is its very positive critical reception (see below) and its U.S. distributor: Neon which has been a recent presence at TFF with Border and The Biggest Little Farm screening last year.

I also feel like the directing win for the Dardennes (and their past with T-ride) probably boosted the chances for Young Ahmed.  I suspect Portrait of a Lady on Fire and Les Miserables might have a Telluride future as a result of the attention they received in France.

From other sections perhaps The Lighthouse and The Climb will make the Telluride program.

Here are some links to coverage of this year’s Cannes winners:

Variety

The Hollywood Reporter

Indiewire

The Playlist



THE CRITICAL FINAL FROM CANNES

As I have done for many years now, I've been tracking the critical consensus for films screening as a part of the 72nd Cannes Film Fest through the work of Reini Urban who compiles an incredibly exhaustive list of the critics' takes on films that play throughout every part of the of the French fest.

Now that Cannes #72 is in the rear view mirror here is some of what his work reveals...

First that the top critics' choice won the top prize (and I don't recall that happening before).  Bong Joon-ho's Parasite won the Palme this past weekend and lead all films in all sections in the combined critical summation with an 8.77 rating on a scale of 10 (with over 400 reviews counted).  That's mind blowing.

The runner-up?  Robert Eggers' The Lighthouse which won the FIPRESCI critics' award.  It had an 8.63 combined raring.  Third was Pedro Almodovar's Pain and Glory.

The complete listing of Urban's critical compilation is linked here.



I'll have more on Thursday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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