Oscar Update: Best Original Screenplay / NSFC Names Winners / Feinberg on Docs and International Features

OSCAR UPDATE: BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Original Screenplay updated since I last posted this category on  Dec. 10th.  A screenplay's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 films are indicated in Bold.

1) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)

2) Promising Young Woman (5)

3) Mank (2) 

4) Minari (3)

5) Soul (4)

6) Judas and the Black Messiah (6)

7) Never Rarely Sometimes Always (8)

8) Da 5 Bloods (7)

9) Sound of Metal (-)

10) Palm Springs (9)

Other Possibles: On the Rocks, the 40 Year old Version, Ammonite

Hot: Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal

Not: On the Rocks

Coming on Thursday...a new look at Best Picture.

NSFC NAMES WINNERS

The National Society of Film Critics met this past Saturday and decided on their superlatives for 2020.  TFF #47 selection Nomadland was the big winner as it grabbed four prizes including Best Picture.

Here's the list of winners or runners-up from TFF #47 OR TFF #46:

Best Picture: Winner: Nomadland, Runner-up: First Cow (TFF #46)

Best Direction: Winner: Chloe Zhao/Nomadland, 2nd Runner-up: Kelly Reichardt/First Cow (TFF #46)

Best Actress: Winner: Frances McDormand/Nomadland

Best Screenplay: Runner-up: Kelly Reichardt/First Cow (TFF #46)

Best Cinematography: Winner: Nomadland

Best Foreign Language Film: Runner-up: Beanpole (TFF #46)

Take a look at all of the winners and runners-up at Gold Derby using this link.

FEINBERG ON DOCS AND INTERNATIONAL FEATURES

The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg posted an article on Saturday focusing on the race for Oscar nominations in the Documentary Feature and International Feature categories.  Feinberg lists three TFF #47 films, one in both categories in the body of the article:

Docs:

All In: The Fight for Democracy

The Bee Gees: How Do You Men a Broken Heart

Notturno.

Feinberg also puts Notturno in the International Film category as well.

You can catch the rest of the article by clicking here.

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Oscar Update: Best Adapted Screenplay / Indiewire Lists: Top 50 of 2020 / Indiewire Listrs: Contenders for Best International Feature

OSCAR UPDATE: BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay updated since I last posted this category on  Dec. 7th.  A screenplay's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 films are indicated in Bold.

1) Nomadland (1)

2) The Father (3)

3) One Night in Miami (2)

4) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (4)

5) News of the World (5)

6) First Cow (7)

7) I'm Thinking of Ending Things (6)

8) Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm (8)

9) The Mauritanian (-)

10) Pieces of a Woman (10)

Other Possibles: The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Midnight Sky, The White Tiger

Hot: The Mauritanian, First Cow

Not: Billie Holiday

I'll have a look at Original Screenplay on Monday.

INDIEWIRE LISTS: TOP 50 OF 2020

Indiewire posted its list of  the best 50 films of 2020 according to the 200+ critics they surveyed.  That story was posted on Jan. 5th.  Among the 50 films were five films from either TFF #46 or the TFF #47 list of films that would have played the fest.  Here's where those five films landed:

#27 Ammonite

#22 The Assistant

#6 Beanpole

#3 First Cow

#1 Nomadland

The complete listing of all 50 films is linked here.

INDIEWIRE LISTS: CONTENDERS FOR BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Meanwhile, Indiewire's Anne Thompson published an updated selection of what she considers the frontrunners for the Best International Feature Oscar.  Among her frontrunners are three films that would have been screening in Telluride last Labor Day had the fest occurred. 

Thompson's list included:

Charlatan

Apples

Notturno.

The four other frontrunners she names include Another Round, I'm No Longer Here, Collective and My Little Sister.

Thompson's article can be found here.

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Oscar Update: Best Director / LA and NY Film Critics Award 2020 Films / Indiewire's Best of 2020 / Nightmare at Christmas (And Maybe Labor Day?) / Two Telluride Favorites Talk Film: Barry and Chloe

 OSCAR UPDATE: BEST DIRECTOR

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Direction updated since I last posted this category on  Nov. 19th.  A director's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 films are indicated in Bold.

1) Chloe Zhao/Nomadland (1)

2) David Fincher/Mank (2)

3) Aaron Sorkin/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (3)

4) Lee Isaac Chung/Minari (7)

5) Regina King/One Night in Miami (4)

6) George C. Wolfe/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (9)

7) Florian Zeller/The Father (5)

8) Paul Greengrass/News of the World (8)

9) Spike Lee/Da 5 Bloods (6)

10) Shaka King/Judas and the Black Messiah (10)

Other Possibles: Darius Marder/Sound of Metal, Emerald Fennell/Promising Young Woman. Kornel Mundruczo/Pieces of a Woman

Hot: Lee Isaac Chung/Minari, George C. Wolfe/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Not: Florian Zeller/The Father, Spike Lee/Da 5 Bloods

INDIEWIRE'S BEST OF 2020

Indiewire polled over 200 critics worldwide for their 2020 Best Of poll.  The website posted their lists of top tens in multiple categories on Dec. 14th.  Among the various categories, here is where Tff $6 and TFF #47 films landed in each category:

Best Picture: #1) Nomadland (47), #3) First Cow (46), #6) Beanpole (46)

Best Director #1) Chloe Zhao/Nomadland (47), #4) Kelly Reichardt/First Cow, #9) Kantemir Balegov/Beanpole (46)

Best Performance: #2) Frances McDormand/Nomadland (47)

Best Cinematography: #1) Nomadland (47) #7) First Cow (46), #9) Beanpole (46)

Best Screenplay: #2) First Cow (46)

Best International Film: #2) Beanpole (46)

Best First Film: #7) The Assistant (46), #10) The Climb (46)

The complete listing in each category is linked here.

LA AND NY FILM CRITICS AWARD 2020 FILMS

Both The Los Angeles Film Critics Association and The New York Film Critics Circle named their "Best Of" for 2020 films over the weekend.  Here's how that played out for Telluride films from both TFF #47 and #46 is as follows:

From New York (From Variety):

Best Film: First Cow (TFF #46)

Best Director: Chloe Zhao/Nomadland (TFF #47)

The complete list of NYFCC winners is here from Variety.

Meanwhile the LAFCA had the following TFF films on its list:

Best Picture Runner-up: Nomadland (TFF #47)

Best Director: Chloe Zhao/Nomadland (TFF #47)

Best Foreign Language Film: Beanpole (TFF 346)

Best Editing: The Father (TFF #47)

Best Production Design Runner-up: Beanpole (TFF #46)

Best Cinematography Runner-up: Nomadland (TFF #47)

The complete list of LAFCA winners is here from The Hollywood Reporter.

 

NIGHTMARE AT CHRISTMAS (AND MAYBE LABOR DAY?)

Indiewire reported this week that Guillermo Del Toro has wrapped Nightmare Alley, his film noir starring Bradley Cooper, Cate Blanchett, Willem Dafoe and Richard Jenkins.  The article also includes a Tweet from the film's distributor, Searchlight, confirming an earlier Tweet from the film's co-writer, Kim Morgan, revealing that the film will be released in December of 2021.

The information that the film is wrapped combined with the release date allows for the possibility that we could see it pop up at TFF #48 perhaps after a Cannes or Venice bow or even as a first time ever screening at TFF.

Del Toro was on hand in Telluride in 2017 with The Shape of Water which had premiered at Venice.  after its Telluride play it went on to win the Best Picture Oscar and Del Toro won for Best Director.

Check out more details in the story from Indiewire linked here.

TWO TELLURIDE FAVORITES TALK FILM: BARRY AND CHLOE

They're two of the hottest directing/writing talents in the current film firmament.  They've also been at Telluride.  I'm talking Barry Jenkins, who has been a part of TFF since his college days and debuted Oscar winner Moonlight there in 2016 and Chloe Zhao who has been at T-ride with both The Rider in 2017 and this year's Nomadland.  As a matter of fact, the two met originally in Telluride in 2017 (per Variety's reporting).

So, Variety got the two together recently for a conversation.  Thanks Variety!

Here's the link to the print and video of their conversation.

BERLIN FEST MOVES AND WILL BE A HYBRID

The Berlin Film Festival, which often premieres a couple of films that make it into the Telluride lineup each year, has announced changes from their traditional dates and structure as Covid-19 continues to change the shape of the film world at large and film festivals in particular.

Variety reports that:

"The festival is now looking to present the festival selections to the film industry in early March, Variety understands, with the European Film Market running as a digital event at the same time. A mini-festival with a series of onsite world premieres is being planned for early June."

The complete Variety article with further details can be found here.

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Oscar Update: Best Picture / TFF and the Gotham Nominations / Waiting for Kurt

OSCAR UPDATE: BEST PICTURE 

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Picture updated since I last posted this category on  Oct. 19th.  A film's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 films are indicated in Bold.

1) Nomadland (2)

2) Mank (3)

3) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)

4) The Father (5)

5) One Night in Miami (6)

6) Minari (10)

7) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (9)

8) Da 5 Bloods (7)

9) News of the World (4)

10) Soul (-)

Hot: Minari, Ma Rainey, Soul

Not: News of the World, Judas and the Black Messiah, Ammonite, On the Rocks, Tenet

TFF AND THE GOTHAMS

Gotham Award nominations were announced this past week.  The Gothams are out of the gate as the first of 2020 end of year awards.  The Gothams aim to recognize independent films.  TFF #46 and #47 films were named to the list of nominees.

Kelly Reichardt's First Cow (TFF #46) led the field with four nominations: Best Feature, Best Screenplay, Best Actor (Joe Magaro) and Breakthrough Actor (Orion Lee).

TFF #46's The Assistant also was nominated for Best Feature.  

TFF #46's Beanpole was nominated for Best International Feature.

TFF #47's Nomadland had nominations for Best Feature and Best Actress (Frances McDormand).

Here's coverage of the complete list of nominations from Erik Anderson/Awards Watch.

WAITING FOR KURT

Some followers of MTFB know that I am a big fan of the late great Kurt Vonnegut.  One of the highlights of my life was to catch a lecture from here back in February of 2003 at Oklahoma City University.  I took a personal day to do it, which, if you know me, is such a rare occurrence.  Usually the only time I use personal days to miss school is for TFF.

Got to see the man talk with a couple of my former students which, if you saw Vonnegut's standard lecture at the time, turned out to be very cool.  The man asked the audience to remember a teacher from our past, so sitting with those "kids" was special.

All of that is to mention that it looks like the Robert B. Weide/Don Argott doc about Vonnegut will likely be released sometime next summer.  The doc has been four decades in the making.  The film has been acquired by IFC Films.  No specific date has been set as yet.

Here's the brand new teaser for the film via YouTube:

Rolling Stone highlighted the news this past week in the article linked here.

Also, if you're so inclined, here's the link to the Daily Oklahoman story about Vonnegut's lecture I attended back in 2003.

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TFF Cancellation After Action Report / 600,000 / TFF #46 Films in 2020

TFF CANCELLATION AFTER ACTION REPORT

Well, this is depressing.  I can't say that I was surprised at the announcement but I can say that I thought that if this was the decision that I thought it might come a bit later.  Nevertheless, I was in Oklahoma City with my wife, who was had a doctor's appointment (not Covid-19 related) when I got the news.  Of course, it knocked the breath out of me.

Then my phone blew up.

Lots of reaching out between me and friends and colleagues social media, email amd direct messages.

Full disclosure here:  I have been a bit "at sea" about the Blog's purpose and utility for the last year.

When TFF declined to accredit me as a journalist last year I wrote that I wasn't really sure about what I was going to do with it.  Ultimately I decided to push on and essentially continue to do what I have been doing since 2008 with the notion that I'd re-evaluate this year and after re-applying for this year's fest.

Now, we're here and the fest has again denied my press accreditation request (I still haven't had an answer from them regarding the rationale for the denial for either last year or this).  And now there is no TFF #47 to write about.

Normally, as you know, I'd be spending this next two months expanding the Ten Bets list and looking forward to the clues provided by announcements from Toronto, Venice and New York (all still on the schedule to happen).  Then I'd be reporting on the fest itself followed by the six month runup to the Oscars and how Telluride films fared and affected that race.  Now?

If you saw yesterday's "Special Post" you may have seen the section devoted to Variety's Peter DeBruge's interview with TFF Executive Director Julie Huntsinger then you know that she revealed that there's a possibility that a TFF #47 list of films that would have played is probably going to be released at some point "later this month".  Huntsinger also revealed that the Tribute recipients had been chosen and were planning to physically attend.

Other questions...

*Is there a TFF #47 poster and artist?
*Who was the Guest Director going to be for 2020?
*Will next year's fest be labeled TFF #47 or #48?
*Did Peter DeBruge hint that Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch would have been on the Telluride lineup?

Meanwhile, Todd McCarthy writing for deadline yesterday notes that co-director Todd Luddy has said that TFF had about 20 films lined up and that the list of those will be forthcoming soon.  From the McCarthy post:

"Festival co-director Tom Luddy, the only one of Telluride’s founding team still on board, said that the titles of about 20 would-have-been festival entries will be revealed in a few days. This will at least provide some insight into what key tastemakers regard as among the best films of the year, even if critics and the public will, at this point, have nothing to say in the matter."


My probable path for the next few weeks...

Continue the regular Monday/Thursday publishing schedule (there's certainly no reason for an increased publication schedule now) with the concept continuing to be sussing out what the T-ride lineup might have been.  I'll probably also take a stab at guessing who the tributes might have included though there's no indication in the DeBruge article that we'll ever know who they were.

After the TFF #47 lineup that-might-have-been is announced...re-assessment...again.

Here's the link again to the DeBruge/Huntsinger interview.

The Todd McCarthy/Deadline piece is linked here.



600,000

As a weird counterpoint to the above...MTFB blew through its 600,000th view as a result of Monday's post.  Over the 12 years that I've been doing this I have published 1803 (counting today's post) posts in addition to the various History and Oscar pages.  That means that each post has averaged 333.14 views.  Of course, some posts have-been hit more than others.  The current front runner is from Jan. 4, 2018 in the run-up to the Oscar nominations announcement.  It had 2616 views.

It seems odd and counter-intuitive to have a celebratory note in light of Tuesday's announcement but I'd be less than honest if I said that it didn't matter.  As always, I'm stupefied that anyone has found and read the blog over these past few years.  Again I want to thank everyone that takes the time to read my ramblings.  Thanks to those of you that comment and email and message.  Thanks to so many of you that have taken a moment to say hello during the actual fest itself.  Thanks to the real journalists that have been so kind and  welcoming at Telluride.  And the biggest thanks goes to my wife who has out up with this time consuming passion project for more than a decade.  She's got more patience than I do.


TFF #46 FILMS IN 2020

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel has put together a compilation of over 100 critics and industry experts to name the best films of 2020 so far (Jordan was kind enough to invite my input but I wasn't able to get a list out together in time).

Some TFF #46 made the list:

#5 The Assistant
#6 First Cow
#12 Beanpole
 

Spike Lee's Da 5 Bloods was the top vote getter.

Jordan's entire list of 38 films can be found here.

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SUNDAY SPECIAL: THE FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS / Final Oscar Predix from the Experts

FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

First a note or two…
If past history holds, these nomination predictions will be between 75%-80% accurate.  Additionally, of that 20%-25% missed, around 20% of those misses will pop up as the #6 possibility in categories that have five nominations.  Then again, as crazy as this Oscar season has been so far… all bets are off.

As always, TFF #46 films are indicated in Bold.

With that, here are the final MTFB Oscar nomination predictions for the 92nd Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE

1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
2) Parasite
3) 1917
4) The Irishman
5) Jojo Rabbit
6) Joker
7) Marriage Story
8) Ford v Ferrari 
9) Little Women
10) Knives Out

Other possibles: The Farewell, Rocketman, Uncut Gems
Notes: The top seven films feel solid.  I'm guessing nine films get nominated this year.  Here’s a thing, though…It feels like there’s a Little Women movement going on…that could get Gerwig, Ronan and Pugh in as well as the film for Best Pic.


BEST DIRECTOR

1) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time
2) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite 
3) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman
4) Sam Mendes/1917
5) Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit
6) Todd Phillips/Joker

Other possibles: Greta Gerwig/Little Women, Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story
Locks: Tarantino, Bong, Scorsese, Mendes


BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy 
2) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story 
3) Charlize Theron/Bombshell
4) Cynthia Erivo/Harriet
5) Lupita Nyong'o/Us
6) Saoirse Ronan/Little Women

Other possibles: Awkwafina/The Farewell, Alfre Woodard/Clemency
Locks: Zellweger, Johansson, Theron. 


BEST ACTOR

1) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker
2) Adam Driver/Marriage Story
3) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time...
4) Taron Egerton/Rocketman
5) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory
6) Christian Bale/Ford v Ferrari 

Other possibles: Robert DeNiro/The Irishman, Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes, Eddie Murphy/Dolemite Is My Name, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems
Locks: Driver, Phoenix, DiCaprio


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story 
2) Jennifer Lopez/Hustlers
3) Margot Robbie/Bombshell
4) Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit
5) Florence Pugh/Little Women
6) Nicole Kidman/Bombshell

Other possibles: Zhao Shuzhen/The Farewell, Annette Bening/The Report
Locks: Dern, Lopez. Robbie


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...
2) Joe Pesci/The Irishman
3) Al Pacino/The Irishman
4) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5) Song Kang-ho/Parasite
6) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes

Other possibles: Jamie Foxx/Just Mercy, Willem Dafoe/The Lighthouse, Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit
Locks: Pitt, Pesci, Pacino.  Near Lock: Hanks


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Irishman
2) Jojo Rabbit
3) The Two Popes 
4) Little Women
5) Joker
6) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Other possibles: Just Mercy, Hustlers, Dark Waters
Locks: Irishman, Jojo, Two Popes.  Near Locks: Little Women, Joker


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Once Upon a Time…
2) Marriage Story
3) Parasite
4) Knives Out
5) 1917
6) The Farewell

Other possibles: Booksmart, Uncut Gems, Pain and Glory
Locks: Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time..., Parasite. 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Parasite 
2) Pain and Glory 
3) Les Miserables
4) Beanpole 
5) Atlantics
6) Corpus Christi

Other possibles: Honeyland, Truth and Justice, Those Who Remained, The Painted Bird


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Toy Story 4
2) Frozen II
3) I Lost My Body
4) The Missing Link
5) How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
6) Klaus

Other possibles: Abominable, The Lion King, Funan

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) American Factory
2) Apollo 11
3) For Sama
4) One Child Nation
5) Honeyland
6) Biggest Little Farm

Other possibles: Midnight Family, Maiden, The Cave, Advocate

FILM EDITING

1) The Irishman
2) Ford v Ferrari
3) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
4) Joker
5) Parasite 
6) Jojo Rabbit

Other possibles: Marriage Story, 1917, Uncut Gems.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) 1917
2) Once Upon a Time...
3) The Irishman
4) Joker
5) Ford v Ferrari
6) The Lighthouse

Other possibles: Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Little Women, A Hidden Life, Parasite, Jojo Rabbit

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) 1917
2) Joker
3) Little Women
4) Marriage Story 
5) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
6) Ford v Ferrari 

Other possibles: Motherless Brooklyn, Jojo Rabbit

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Into the Unknown/Frozen II
2) I'm Gonna Love Me Again/Rocketman
3) Stand Up/Harriet
4) Glasgow/Wild Rose
5) I'm Standing with You/Breakthrough
6) Spirit/The Lion King

Other possibles: I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away/Toy Story 4, Speechless/Aladdin, Daily Battles/Motherless Brooklyn, Letter to My Godfather/Black Godfather

COSTUMES

1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
2) Little Women (2)
3) Dolemite Is My Name (3)
4) Downton Abbey (4)
5) Rocketman (5)
6) 1917 (6)

Other possibles:Harriet, The Irishman, Judy, Jojo Rabbit

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Bombshell (1)
2) Judy (2)
3) Rocketman (3)
4) Joker (4)
5) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (5)
6) 1917 (6)

Other possibles: Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, Little Women, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
2) 1917 (2)
3) The Irishman (3)
4) Parasite (4)
5) Joker (5)
6) Jojo Rabbit (6)

Other possibles: Little Women, The Two Popes, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Ad Astra

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) The Lion King
2) The Irishman
3) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4) Avengers: Endgame
5) 1917
6) Alita: Battle Angel

Other possible: Gemini Man

SOUND EDITING

1) Ford v Ferrari
2) 1917
3) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
4) Joker
5) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
6) Avengers: Endgame

Other possibles: Rocketman, The Irishman, Toy Story 4

SOUND MIXING

1) Ford v Ferrari
2) 1917
3) Once Upon a Time...
4) Joker
5) Rocketman
6) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Other possibles: The Irishman, Avengers: Endgame, Toy Story 4

ANIMATED SHORTS

1) Kitbull
2) Hair Love
3) The Physics of Sorrow
4) Dcera (Daughter)
5) He Can't Live Without Cosmos
6) Mind My Mind

Others: Hors Piste, Memorable, Sister, Uncle Thomas: Counting the Days

DOCUMENTARY SHORTS

1) Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone (If You're a Girl)
2) Fire in Paradise
3) St. Louis Superman
4) Walk Run Cha-Cha
5) In the Absence
6) After Maria

Others: Ghosts of Sugarland, Life Overtakes Me, he Nightcrawlers, Stay Close

LIVE ACTION SHORTS

1) Little Hands
2) Brotherhood
3) The Neighbors Window
4) Refugee
5) A Sister
6) Nefta Football Club

Others: The Christmas Gift, Miller and Son, Saria, Sometimes I Think About Dying

NOTES:

According to my picks the total nomination leader will be Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood with 12 followed by:

1917 and Joker-10
The Irishman-9
Parasite-7
Marriage Story and Little Women- 6
Ford v Ferrari-5

Telluride films will earn 25 nominations in total.  Another four could be possible.  In addition to Parasite, Marriage Story and Ford v Ferrari...

Judy-2
Pain and Glory- 2
The Two Popes- 1
Beanpole- 1
Fire in Paradise-1






FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS:

Awards Daily

The Hollywood Reporter

Awards Watch Part 1 

Awards Watch Part 2

Hollywood News

Indiewire

Vanity Fair

Entertainment Weekly

Next Best Picture


FINAL NOTE: I'll have all the nominees up sometime tomorrow morning with the breakdown of how Telluride films actually did and maybe a comment or two along the way.  Tomorrow's post will be later in that day than the normal 8:00am EST/6:00am PST.  Hoping to have it up by 10:00am Eastern.

Golden Globe Nominations / Critics Choice Nominations / Los Angeles Film Critics Announce / Oscar Predictions Update : Best Pic and More / Latest Gurus of Gold / Trailers for Beanpole and The Assistant

GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their nominees this morning for the best in film and television for 2019.  Here's how TFF #46 films fared:

Marriage Story (6): Best Picture/Drama, Best Actor/Adam Driver, Best Actress/Scarlett Johansson, Best Supporting Actress/Laura Dern, Screenplay, Score  (Note: Marriage Story led the filed with its six nominations.  The Irishman was next with five).

Parasite (3): Director, Foreign Film, Screenplay

Ford v Ferrari (1): Best Actor/Christian Bale

The Two Popes (4): Best Picture/ Drama, Best Actor/Jonathan Pryce, Best Supporting Actor/Anthony Hopkins, Screenplay

Pain and Glory (2): Best Actor/Antonio Banderas, Foreign Film

Portrait of a Lady on Fire: (1):Foreign Film

Judy (1): Best Actress/Renee Zellweger

The Report (1): Best Supporting Actress/Annette Bening

TFF #46 totaled 19 nominations.

The complete list of all nominees is linked here from The Hollywood Reporter.



CRITICS CHOICE NOMINATIONS

Martin Scorsese's The Irishman led all films with 14 Critics Choice nominations with Quentin Tarantino's Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood close behind with 12.  Those were announced yesterday.

Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story led the TFF #46 entries in nominations with eight tied with 1917 as the fourth most nominated film.  In all TFF #46 films earned 32 Critics Choice nominations.

Here's the breakdown of TFF #46 films nomination for Critics Choice Awards yesterday:

Marriage Story (8): Best Picture, Director/Noah Baumbach, Actress/Scarlett Johansson, Actor/Adam Driver, Laura Dern/Supporting Actress, Ensemble, Original Screenplay and Score.

Parasite (7): Best Picture, Best Foreign Film, Bong Joon-ho/Director, Ensemble, Original Screenplay, Editing and Production Design.

Ford v Ferrari (5): Best Picture, Best Action Picture, Cinematography, Editing and Visual Effects.

Uncut Gems (4):  Best Picture, The Safdie Brothers/Director, Actor/Adam Sandler, Editing

Pain and Glory (2): Best Foreign Film, Actor/Antonio Banderas

Judy (2): Actress/Renee Zellweger, Makeup

The Two Popes (2): Supporting Actor/Anthony Hopkins, Adapted Screenplay

Portrait of a Lady on Fire (1): Best Foreign Film

The Aeronauts (1): Visual Effects

The complete list of all nominees for the Critics Choice Awards for film and television are linked from their website here.


LOS ANGELES FILM CRITICS ANNOUNCE

Also announcing their "Best Of" for 2019 yesterday was the Laos Angeles Film Critics Association.  LAFCA traditionally names a winner in each category as well as a runner-up.  In this years voting T46 films were named the Best in seven categories and runners-up in five other instances.  Leading the way was Bong Joon-ho's Parasite which was named in five of the 12 spots.  Here's the breakdown by TFF #46 film:

Parasite: Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor Song Kan-ho and runner-up for Screenplay and Production Design.

Pedro Almodovar's Pain and Glory was named Best Foreign Film and its star Antonio Banderas was named Best Actor.

Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story was named a couple of times.  It was named Best Screenplay and Adam Driver was runner-up for Best Actor.

Portrait of a Lady on Fire was chosen as Best Cinematography and was also runner-up for Best Foreign Film.

The Safdie Brother's Uncut Gems was runner-up for Best Editing.

The complete list of winners from the LAFCA is linked here from their website.




UPDATED OSCAR PREDICTIONS

Updating my Oscar predictions for Best Picture, Director the Screenplay categories and Film Editing.

As always TFF #46 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) The Irishman (2)
2) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
3) 1917 (3)
4) Parasite (4)
5) Marriage Story (5)
6) Jojo Rabbit (6)
7) Ford v Ferrari (9)
8) Joker (8)
9) The Two Popes (7)
10) The Farewell (10)

Other possibles: Dolemite Is My Name, Richard Jewell, Bombshell, Knives Out, Uncut Gems


BEST DIRECTOR

1) Sam Mendes/1917 (4)
2) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time... (1)
3) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman (3)
4) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite (2)
5) Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story (5)
6) James Mangold/Ford v Ferrari (-)

Other possibles: Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit, Fernando Meirelles/The Two Popes, Todd Phillips/Joker


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Irishman (3)
2) The Two Popes (1)
3) Jojo Rabbit (2)
4) Joker (4)
5) Little Women (5)
6) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (-)

Other possibles: Hustlers, Just Mercy, Richard Jewell

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Marriage Story (1)
2) Once Upon a Time... (2)
3) Parasite (3)
4) The Farewell (4)
5) 1917 (5)
6) Knives Out (-)

Other Possibles: Uncut Gems, Honey Boy, Bombshell

BEST FILM EDITING

1) The Irishman (1)
2) Ford v Ferrari (2)
3) Once Upon a Time... (3)
4) Parasite (5)
5) Marriage Story (-)
6) 1917 (4)

Other possibles: The Two Popes, Jojo Rabbit, Joker


LATEST BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS FROM THE GURUS OF GOLD

These were updated late last week and the newest Best Pic consensus is linked here.

I believe there will be a new Gurus this week with expanded predictions in a number of other categories.  Keep an eye on my Twitter account ( @Gort2 ) for when that goes up.



TRAILERS FROM BEANPOLE AND THE ASSISTANT


A couple of films that screened at Telluride that have had low level buzz since the fest both released trailers this week.

Foreign Film contender from Russia, Kantemir Bagalov's Beanpole had one.  Beanpole is set for release in the U.S. on Jan. 29th and is being distributed by Kino Lorber.  Here's that video from YouTube:

Also launching a trailer was Kitty Green's The Assistant.  That film will release on Jan. 31st and is distributed by Bleecker Street Media.  Here's that trailer also from YouTube:

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Oscar Predictions: Best International Feature / Oscar Predictions Update: Actress and Actor / EFA Nominations Announced / Interviews From Marriage Story

OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Here's my first crack at parsing the likely nominees for the newly renamed Best International Feature category for the Academy Awards.  As always films from TFF are in Bold.

1) Parasite

2) Pain and Glory

3) Les Miserables

4) Atlantics

5) Monos

Other Possibles: And Then We Danced, Beanpole, The Painted Bird.

Notes: Honestly, the perception right now is that Parasite is so solid as the front runner for this Oscar that it seems a foregone conclusion that it will not only be nominated but will also win and that the rest of the field is playing for the proverbial "just honored to be nominated" status.  But then, remember Toni Erdmann...

OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: BEST ACTRESS AND ACTOR

Here's my latest updated predictions for Best Actress and Actor nominations.  I last updated the Best Actress prediction on Oct. 14th and Best Actor on Oct. 17th.

The latest predictions are listed in order of likelihood with their past position indicated in parentheses.  as is my custom, TFF #46 films are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy (1)
2) Charlize Theron/Bombshell (-)
3) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story (2)
4) Saorise Ronan/Little Women (-)
5) Cynthia Ervio/Harriet (3)

Other possibles: Awkwafina/The Farewell, Lupita Nyong'o/Us, Alfre Woodard/Clemency.

Notes: Theron coming on like a freight train as some folks have actually seen Bombshell.  Zellweger still has a solid grasp on the top spot.

BEST ACTOR

1) Adam Driver/Marriage Story (1)
2) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker (2)
3) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes (3)
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (4)
5) Eddie Murphy/Dolemite Is My Name (-)

Other possibles: Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory, Robert DeNiro/The Irishman, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems.

Notes: The category is relatively stable over the last three weeks.  Murphy sneaks in over Banderas and DeNiro...at least for now.

EFA NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

The European Film Academy announced the nominees for their awards for superlatives in European films for the past year and they included films from both TFF #46 and TFF #45.

TFF nominees included:

Pain and Glory nominated for Best European Film, Antonio Banderas/Best Actor, Pedro Almodovar/Best Director, Pedro Almodovar/Best Screenwriter.

Portrait of a Lady on Fire: Celine Sciamma/Best Director, Noemie Merlant and Adele Haenel/Best Actress, Celine Sciamma/Best Screenwriter

Beanpole: Viktoria Miroshnichenko/Best Actress

The Favourite (from TFF #45) Best European Film, Olivia Colman/Best Actress, Yorgos Lanthimos/Best Director

The complete list of nominees except for animated films is linked here from Deadline.

INTERVIEWS FROM MARRIAGE STORY

As Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story got its limited theatrical release this week and with its streaming release less than a month away (Dec. 6th) we are seeing more and more about the film including interviews with its principals.

Anne Thompson of Indiewire talks to Noah Baumbach

Baz Bamigboye of The Daily Mail talks to Adam Driver

Erik Anderson of Awards Watch talks to Alan Alda


That's Monday.

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Oscar Predictions Update: Best Supporting Actress / Bong Joon Ho Talks Parasite / Marriage Story Has New Looks / Off the Radar... / Beanpole Teaser Appears / Adam Sandler Talks Uncut Gems

OSCAR PREDICTION UPDATE: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

I last checked in on the Best Supporting Actress Oscar race on Sept. 25th.  Here's the new update for the category with the actor's previous position in parentheses.  Performances from TFF #46 films are in Bold.

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story (1)

2) Jennifer Lopez/Hustlers (2)

3) Margot Robbie/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (3)

4) Margot Robbie/Bombshell (-)

5) Annette Bening/The Report (4)

Other Possibles: Thomasin McKenzie/Jojo Rabbit, Maggie Smith/Downton Abbey, Shuzhen Zhao/The Farewell, Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit

Notes: Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) and Taylor Russell (Waves) have, for the moment, waned over the last month or so.  The Margot Robbie double mention is likely to shake down to one or the other.  My guess going forward is that she's more likely to get a nomination for Bombshell.  We'll see.

BONG JOON HO TALKS PARASITE

My friend Tomris Laffly had a fantastic interview with Parasite director Bong Joon Ho at rogerebert.com this past week.  Parasite is, perhaps, the most talked about film that appeared at TFF #46.  It's a critical darling (Metacritic has it at 95).  The film was already hot after its Palme d"Or win at Cannes in May and the heat has steadily increased as it has moved through the fall fest season toward its eventual U.S. release this past week.

Here's the link to the interview.

MARRIAGE STORY HAS NEW LOOKS

Netflix unveiled a new trailer and a new poster for Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story recently.  Here's the new poster featuring the "Official Selection of the Telluride Film Festival" banner:

And here from YouTube is the new trailer for the film:

And a reminder here that I'm on the tank for a Best Supporting Actress nomination for Julie Hagerty and maybe a Supporting Actor nod for Ray Liotta.

OFF THE RADAR...

Not long ago we ran across the news that Alexander Payne was readying his next project to star Mads Mikkelsen.  As you might surmise, I immediately put it on my watch list as a possible, nee, probable  selection for TFF #47 owing to Payne's past with the fest.

Now, however, that seems to have gone away as Deadline reports that the project has fallen apart.  Mike Fleming revealed late this week that the Norwegian journalist upon which the project is based terminated his agreement to make the film.  The decision came with mere days left before the film was scheduled to begin filming.

The Deadline.com story is linked here.


BEANPOLE TEASER APPEARS

Russian entrant for the newly re-named Best International Oscar category, Kantemir Bugalov's Beanpole has an U.S. teaser.  Kino Lorber dropped that last week and I have it here for you via YouTube:

Demitra Kampakis has a lengthy interview with Bugalov at The Film Stage which you will find linked here.

ADAM SANDLER TALKS UNCUT GEMS

Leah Greenblatt/Entertainment Weekly talked to the star of the Safdie Brothers new film Uncut Gems which has Sandler some of the best reviews of his career after first screening at the Telluride Film Festival.

That article is linked here

Going to call this done for today.

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Oscar History and TFF: Best Actress / Oscar Predictions: Best Director Update / International Feature Long List

OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: BEST ACTRESS

Jane Alexander in Testament...the first Best Actress nominee from a TFF film

I'm turning now to a breakdown of the history between TFF and The Academy Awards as related to each of the feature categories.  Today I bring you the Best Actress nominees from films that have screened at the festival since its inception in 1974:

1983- Jane Alexander/Testament
1991- Laura Dern/Rambling Rose
1993- Holly Hunter/The Piano
1996- Brenda Blethyn/Secrets and Lies, Emily Watson/Breaking the Waves
1998-Fernanda Montenegro/Central Station
2002- Salma Hayek/Frida
2004- Annette Bening/Being Julia
2005- Reese Witherspoon/Walk the Line-WINNER
2006- Kate Winslet/Little Children, Penelope Cruz/Volver
2007- Ellen Page/Juno
2009- Carey Mulligan/An Education, Helen Mirren/The Last Station
2010- Natalie Portman/Black Swan-WINNER
2011- Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs
2012- Emanuelle Riva/Amour
2013- Sandra Bullock/Gravity
2014- Reese Witherspoon-Wild, Marion Cotillard/Two Days One Night
2015- Brie Larson/Room-WINNER, Cate Blanchett/Carol, Charlotte Rampling/45 Years
2016- Emma Stone/La La Land-WINNER
2017- Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water, Saorise Ronan/Lady Bird
2018- Olivia Colman/The Favourite-WINNER, Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Yalitza Aparicio/Roma

Overall 29 nominations for Best Actress with five winners including three of the last four.

OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST DIRECTOR UPDATED

Here are my current predictions for the Best Direction Oscar with the past prediction listed in the parentheses.  TFF #46 films are in Bold.

Bong Joon-Ho/Parasite

1) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (1)

2) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman (5)

3) Bong Joon-Ho/Parasite (2)

4) Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story (3)

5) Taika Waititi/JoJo Rabbit (-)

6) Lulu Wang/The Farewell (-)

Other Possibles: Sam Mendes/1917, Marielle Heller/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Fernando Meirelles/The Two Popes, James Mangold/Ford v. Ferrari

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE LONG LIST

93 films have been submitted for the newly named Best International Film category (formerly Best Foreign Language Films.  Of the 93, I have only identified three that played at TFF #46:

Parasite/South Korea

Pain and Glory/Spain

Beanpole/Russia

Other serious contenders that were chosen are thought to be:

Monos/Colombia

Les Miserables/France

Verdict/Philippines

The Whistlers/Romania

Atlantics/Senegal

The complete list of all 93 films is linked here from Variety.

That's your Thursday.

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Added on Aug. 30, 2022 at 2:18 pm CDT:  Spielberg's Fabelmans to play Telluride in 2022.

Premiere Uncertainty / Multiple Trailers to Consider / New York Doc Reveal / Parasite Already Looking Toward Oscar / Current Ten Bets / The People's Telluride

Thursday...One Week...One Day...

PREMIERE UNCERTAINTY

Reading premiere statuses has become THE tea leaf reading essential to grasping what films are possibly playing at Telluride but it's not a perfect or exact science.  Every year it seems that there are a couple of films which are announced with one status and then it turns out that that designation is incorrect.  When that happens, depending on what was announced,  you can end up including a film for TFF or excluding it from TFF and then find out on announcement morning that you got it wrong.  

This year is no different in terms of the fact that it's happened...it does seem like there is more confusion than the past few years.

You're already probably aware that Malick's A Hidden Life was a focus of some confusion when it was reported by at least one outlet to be a North American premiere at Toronto which would mean no slot for it at Telluride.  Later it was discovered that it is, in fact, a Canadian premiere at TIFF and consequently probably IS playing TFF #46.

If you've been reading along the past two weeks you know that we've had some confusion about Beanpole and The Truth.  We think we have Beanpole back in as probable for Telluride despite its continued designation by Toronto as a North American Premiere.  As far as The Truth...that hasn't become clear yet.  Again, TIFF is listing it as a North American premiere but I still have whispers that it's a Telluride play.

And...now...I'm hearing a bit of scuttlebutt that the list of NA preems at Toronto may include still a couple of other films that I had written off.  I'm going to try to nail some of that down before I post this week's new list of "Bets".

And finally, let me tease you a little that over the past week or so I've heard a couple of really intriguing suggestions about films that I haven't considered seriously making an appearance next week.  I'm hoping to get to a point where I can either confirm confidently or debunk...but if a couple of these things happen...there will be some surprises.

MULTIPLE TRAILERS TO CONSIDER

Since my last post on Tuesday there has been a deluge of teasers and trailers for films that will or could still play on the Telluride screens: Marriage Story, an IMAX trailer for Ad Astra, Antlers and Bombshell (was previously the Untitled Jay Roach Roger Ailes project).  I have downloaded all of them from YouTube.

Additionally, the word is that we're supposed to get a trailer for The Report later today.

MARRIAGE STORY X 2

We're very sure this is already in the lineup for next week

What I Love About Nicole:

:

What I Love About Charlie:

AD ASTRA IMAX

I still am clinging to a slender reed of hope that this screens in Venice and then makes the trip to southwest Colorado.

ANTLERS

Scott Cooper's last two projects screened at Telluride: Black Mass and Hostiles.  The producer is a guy named Guillermo Del Toro...you might remember him for a little thing called The Shape of Water.

BOMBSHELL

Admittedly...an outside shot at best.

NEW YORK DOC REVEAL

The New York Film Fest revealed its documentary choices yesterday and, unusually, they revealed nothing abut what will play at The SHOW only what likely will not as each announced film was labeled by NYFF as a World, North American or U.S. premiere.

Among docs that seem to be off the Telluride plate are:

Tim Robbins' 45 Seconds of Laughter

Michael Apted's 63 Up

Lynn Novick's College Behind Bars

Nanni Moretti's Santiago Italia

Sergei Loznitsa's State Funeral

The complete documentary announcement from the Film Society of Lincoln Center is linked here.

PARASITE ALREADY LOOKING TOWARD OSCAR

Deadline.com reports that South Korea has chosen Palme d'Or winner, Bong Joon-ho's Parasite to be its entrant for Oscar glory in the newly re-named category Best International Film (formerly Best Foreign Language Film).

Deadline's Nancy Tartiglione reported the choice yesterday.

For Bong, it's his second selection to represent South Korea in the Oscar sweepstakes having been selected back in 2006 for his film Mother.

Parasite opens in the U.S. on Oct. 11th.

The complete Deadline story is here.


CURRENT TEN BETS AND BONUS BETS

10) The Aeronauts
9) Ford v. Ferrari
8) The Two Popes
7) Judy
6) Pain and Glory
5) Uncut Gems
4) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
3) Motherless Brooklyn
2) Marriage Story
1) Parasite


Bonus Bets:

Bonus 1) Varda by Agnes
Bonus 2) First Cow
Bonus 3) A Hidden Life
Bonus 4) The Report
Bonus 5) The Kingmaker
Bonus 6) The Climb
Bonus 7) Waves
Bonus 8) Lyrebird
Bonus 9) Verdict

Of course a new Ten Bets and Bonus Bets is coming tomorrow... plus the dwindling list of films that are still possible...


THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE

For the eighth consecutive year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride.  All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".


Report your ratings with any of the following contact methods:


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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