Oscar Predicitons: Updates and First Predix:Costumes, Makeup, Song / Gurus of Gold Return / Oscar History and TFF Continues

OSCAR PREDICTIONS: SOME UPDATES AND FIRST PREDICTIONS

I'm updating the acting categories and providing first guesses in the Costume, Makeup/Hair and Original Song categories.

Acting categories were last updated on Nov. 14th.

As always, TFF #46 films are indicated in Bold.  The film or performers previous position in these predictions are indicated in parentheses.


BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy (1)
2) Charlize Theron/Bombshell (2)
3) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story (3)
4) Saoirse Ronan/Little Women (4)
5) Cynthia Erivo/Harriet (5)
6) Lupita Nyong'o/Us

Other possibles: Awkwafina/The Farewell, Alfre Woodard/Clemency


BEST ACTOR

1) Adam Driver/Marriage Story (1)
2) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker (2)
3) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes (3)
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time... (4)
5) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory (5)
6) Eddie Murphy/Dolemite Is My Name (-)

Other possibles: Robert DeNiro/The Irishman, Taron Egerton/Rocketman, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story (1)
2) Jennifer Lopez/Hustlers (2)
3) Margot Robbie/Bombshell (3)
4) Florence Pugh/Little Women (4)
5) Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit (5)
6) Zhao Shuzhen/The Farewell (-)

Other possibles: Maggie Smith/Downton Abbey, Annette Bening/The Report, DaVine Joy Randolph/My Name Is Dolemite


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time... (1)
2) Al Pacino/The Irishman (2)
3) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (5)
4) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes (3)
5) Joe Pesci/The Irishman (4)
6) Alan Alda/Marriage Story (-)

Other possibles: Willem Dafoe/The Lighthouse, Wesley Snipes/Dolemite Is My Name, Tracy Letts/Ford v Ferrari


And now for the first time predictions for Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Original Song:

COSTUMES

1) Once Upon a Time...
2) Dolemite Is My Name
3) Little Women
4) Rocketman
5) Downton Abbey
6) Jojo Rabbit

Other possibles: Harriet, The Irishman, Judy


MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Bombshell
2) Once Upon a Time...
3) Rocketman
4) Joker
5) Judy
6) The Two Popes

Other possibles: The Irishman, Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey


ORIGINAL SONG

1) Into the Unknown/Frozen II
2) Stand Up/Harriet
3) Beautiful Ghosts/Cats
4) I'm Gonna Love Me Again/Rocketman
5) Spirit/The Lion King
6) Speechless/Aladdin

Other possibles: I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away/Toy Story 4, I'm Standing with You/Breakthrough



AND THE GURUS RETURN (AND I GET TO BE ONE AGAIN)

Movie City News' Gurus of Gold, a collective of Oscar "experts" who have agreed to have our predictions accumulated and added together for a consensus set of predictions, has returned for this Oscar season.

MCN's Ray Pride has added us all together and the focus for this first wave of predictions is on Best Picture and the acting races.

The links are as follows:

Gurus on Best Picture

Gurus on the acting races

Give them a gander.

I am honored to be included with Sasha Stone/Awards Daily, Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit, Tomris Laffly/RogerEbert.com, Dave Karger/TCM, IMDb, Peter Howell/The Toronto Star and a bunch of others.


OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF CONTINUES

The project continues today with a look back at the same three categories that I provided my first predictions for above: Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Original Song:

BEST COSTUMES

1985- The Journey of Natty Gann
1990- Cyrano de Bergerac-WINNER
1993- The Piano
1994- Bullets Over Broadway
2000- Crouching Dragon Hidden Tiger, Quills
2003- Girl with a Pearl Earring
2005- Walk the Line
2008- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (scenes screened)
2009- Bright Star, Before Coco Chanel
2010- The King's Speech
2011- The Artist
2013- 12 Years a Slave, Invisible Woman
2015- Carol
2016- La La Land
2017- The Shape of Water, Darkest Hour
2018- The Favourite


Overall 20 nominations and one win.


BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1990- Cyrano de Bergerac
1994- Ed Wood-WINNER
2000- Shadow of the Vampire
2002- Frida-WINNER
2008- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button-WINNER (scenes screened)
2010- The Way Back
2011- Albert Nobbs
2014- Foxcatcher
2017- Darkest Hour-WINNER
2018- Border

Overall 10 nominations and four wins.


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

2000- Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon
2002- Frida
2003- The Triplets of Belleville
2008- Slumdog Millionaire (x2)- WINNER
2010- 127 Hours
2016- La La Land (x2)-WINNER

Overall eight nominations and two wins.


That's Thursday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Oscar Predictions: Best International Feature / Oscar Predictions Update: Actress and Actor / EFA Nominations Announced / Interviews From Marriage Story

OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Here's my first crack at parsing the likely nominees for the newly renamed Best International Feature category for the Academy Awards.  As always films from TFF are in Bold.

1) Parasite

2) Pain and Glory

3) Les Miserables

4) Atlantics

5) Monos

Other Possibles: And Then We Danced, Beanpole, The Painted Bird.

Notes: Honestly, the perception right now is that Parasite is so solid as the front runner for this Oscar that it seems a foregone conclusion that it will not only be nominated but will also win and that the rest of the field is playing for the proverbial "just honored to be nominated" status.  But then, remember Toni Erdmann...

OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: BEST ACTRESS AND ACTOR

Here's my latest updated predictions for Best Actress and Actor nominations.  I last updated the Best Actress prediction on Oct. 14th and Best Actor on Oct. 17th.

The latest predictions are listed in order of likelihood with their past position indicated in parentheses.  as is my custom, TFF #46 films are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy (1)
2) Charlize Theron/Bombshell (-)
3) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story (2)
4) Saorise Ronan/Little Women (-)
5) Cynthia Ervio/Harriet (3)

Other possibles: Awkwafina/The Farewell, Lupita Nyong'o/Us, Alfre Woodard/Clemency.

Notes: Theron coming on like a freight train as some folks have actually seen Bombshell.  Zellweger still has a solid grasp on the top spot.

BEST ACTOR

1) Adam Driver/Marriage Story (1)
2) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker (2)
3) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes (3)
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (4)
5) Eddie Murphy/Dolemite Is My Name (-)

Other possibles: Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory, Robert DeNiro/The Irishman, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems.

Notes: The category is relatively stable over the last three weeks.  Murphy sneaks in over Banderas and DeNiro...at least for now.

EFA NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

The European Film Academy announced the nominees for their awards for superlatives in European films for the past year and they included films from both TFF #46 and TFF #45.

TFF nominees included:

Pain and Glory nominated for Best European Film, Antonio Banderas/Best Actor, Pedro Almodovar/Best Director, Pedro Almodovar/Best Screenwriter.

Portrait of a Lady on Fire: Celine Sciamma/Best Director, Noemie Merlant and Adele Haenel/Best Actress, Celine Sciamma/Best Screenwriter

Beanpole: Viktoria Miroshnichenko/Best Actress

The Favourite (from TFF #45) Best European Film, Olivia Colman/Best Actress, Yorgos Lanthimos/Best Director

The complete list of nominees except for animated films is linked here from Deadline.

INTERVIEWS FROM MARRIAGE STORY

As Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story got its limited theatrical release this week and with its streaming release less than a month away (Dec. 6th) we are seeing more and more about the film including interviews with its principals.

Anne Thompson of Indiewire talks to Noah Baumbach

Baz Bamigboye of The Daily Mail talks to Adam Driver

Erik Anderson of Awards Watch talks to Alan Alda


That's Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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Oscar Predictions Update: Best Supporting Actor / Oscar History and TFF: Best Supporting Actor / It's Bale vs. Damon / Variety's 34 Best Picture Contenders

OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

I last checked in on the Best Supporting Actor Oscar race on Sept. 25th.  Here's the new update for the category with the actor's previous position in parentheses.  Performances from TFF #46 films are in Bold.


1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (1)
2) Al Pacino/The Irishman (4)
3) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (2)
4) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes (3)
5) Joe Pesci/The Irishman (-)

Other possibles: Willem Dafoe/The Lighthouse, Alan Alda/Marriage Story, John Lithgow/Bombshell, Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit

Notes:  Joe Pesci especially, but also Al Pacino are riding a crest of positive reactions to the first screenings of Martin Scorsese's The Irishman.  It will also be interesting to see if Scorsese's recent critique of "Superhero" films has any effect on how Oscarologists are handicapping the season.



OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Here's the complete history of nominees and winners for the Best Supporting Actor category and the Telluride Film Festival:

1992- Jaye Davidson/The Crying Game
1994- Martin Landau/Ed Wood-WINNER, Chazz Palminteri/Bullets Over Broadway
1997- James Coburn/Affliction-WINNER
2000- WIllem Dafoe/Shadow of the Vampire
2005- Jake Gyllenhaal/Brokeback Mountain
2006- Jackie Earle Haley/Little Children
2007- Hal Holbrook/Into the Wild
2009- Christopher Plummer/The Last Station
2010- Geoffrey Rush/The King's Speech
2012- Alan Arkin/Argo
2013- Michael Fassbender/12 Years a Slave
2014- Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher, Edward Norton/Birdman
2015- Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight
2016- Mahershala Ali/Moonlight-WINNER, Lucas Hedges- Manchester by the Sea
2017- Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
2018- Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Overall 19 nominations and three wins.


IT'S BALE VS. DAMON

The question about where Matt Damon and Christian Bale would be campaigned in terms of Oscar categorization was answered earlier this week as reports from a number of sources indicated that both will be categorized as leads and as such will be going head to head for Best Actor nominations.

Some reports even indicated that Bale was the one who actually made the determination.

Indiewire's story on the matter is linked here.

Variety's report is here.

Deadline's story is here.


VARIETY LISTS 34 BEST PICTURE PLAYERS

Variety's Jenelle Riley and Avika Gottlieb writing for Variety have come up with a list of 34 films that they believe are the most likely films to be nominated for the Best Picture Oscar.  Among those films are   that played at TFF #46.

Those TFF #46 films are:

The Aeronauts
Ford v. Ferrari
A Hidden Life
Judy
Marriage Story
Motherless Brooklyn
Pain and Glory
Parasite
The Two Popes
Uncut Gems
Waves


The complete list of all 34 as well as brief descriptions and Oscar analysis for each is linked here.


That's your Thursday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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