Thursday, October 24, 2019

Oscar Predictions Update: Best Supporting Actor / Oscar History and TFF: Best Supporting Actor / It's Bale vs. Damon / Variety's 34 Best Picture Contenders

OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR



I last checked in on the Best Supporting Actor Oscar race on Sept. 25th.  Here's the new update for the category with the actor's previous position in parentheses.  Performances from TFF #46 films are in Bold.


1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (1)
2) Al Pacino/The Irishman (4)
3) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (2)
4) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes (3)
5) Joe Pesci/The Irishman (-)

Other possibles: Willem Dafoe/The Lighthouse, Alan Alda/Marriage Story, John Lithgow/Bombshell, Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit

Notes:  Joe Pesci especially, but also Al Pacino are riding a crest of positive reactions to the first screenings of Martin Scorsese's The Irishman.  It will also be interesting to see if Scorsese's recent critique of "Superhero" films has any effect on how Oscarologists are handicapping the season.



OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR



Here's the complete history of nominees and winners for the Best Supporting Actor category and the Telluride Film Festival:

1992- Jaye Davidson/The Crying Game
1994- Martin Landau/Ed Wood-WINNER, Chazz Palminteri/Bullets Over Broadway
1997- James Coburn/Affliction-WINNER
2000- WIllem Dafoe/Shadow of the Vampire
2005- Jake Gyllenhaal/Brokeback Mountain
2006- Jackie Earle Haley/Little Children
2007- Hal Holbrook/Into the Wild
2009- Christopher Plummer/The Last Station
2010- Geoffrey Rush/The King's Speech
2012- Alan Arkin/Argo
2013- Michael Fassbender/12 Years a Slave
2014- Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher, Edward Norton/Birdman
2015- Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight
2016- Mahershala Ali/Moonlight-WINNER, Lucas Hedges- Manchester by the Sea
2017- Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
2018- Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Overall 19 nominations and three wins.


IT'S BALE VS. DAMON



The question about where Matt Damon and Christian Bale would be campaigned in terms of Oscar categorization was answered earlier this week as reports from a number of sources indicated that both will be categorized as leads and as such will be going head to head for Best Actor nominations.

Some reports even indicated that Bale was the one who actually made the determination.

Indiewire's story on the matter is linked here.

Variety's report is here.

Deadline's story is here.


VARIETY LISTS 34 BEST PICTURE PLAYERS



Variety's Jenelle Riley and Avika Gottlieb writing for Variety have come up with a list of 34 films that they believe are the most likely films to be nominated for the Best Picture Oscar.  Among those films are   that played at TFF #46.

Those TFF #46 films are:

The Aeronauts
Ford v. Ferrari
A Hidden Life
Judy
Marriage Story
Motherless Brooklyn
Pain and Glory
Parasite
The Two Popes
Uncut Gems
Waves


The complete list of all 34 as well as brief descriptions and Oscar analysis for each is linked here.


That's your Thursday.


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