Oscar Predicted Winners: The Final Eight Categories / The Final Gurus of Gold / Ruimy Takes A Stab at Cannes

OSCAR PREDICTED WINNERS: THE FINAL EIGHT CATEGORIES

Here's a look at where I'm at predicting what films will win Oscars on Sunday night for Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and the three Shorts categories.

My FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS for all 24 categories will be posted SUNDAY MORNING...because it's all still fluid.  The predictions below even post date some of those I have for the latest Gurus of Gold at Movie City News (see below).

As always TFF #46 films are in Bold


COSTUMES

1) Little Women
2) Once Upon a Time...
3) Jojo Rabbit
4) The Irishman
5) Joker

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Bombshell
2) 1917
3) Joker
4) Judy
5) Maleficent

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) 1917
2) The Irishman
3) Avengers: Endgame
4) The Lion King
5) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

SOUND MIXING

1) 1917
2) Ford v Ferrari
3) Once Upon a Time...
4) Joker
5) Ad Astra

SOUND EDITING

1) Ford v Ferrari
2) 1917
3) Joker
4) Once Upon a Time...
5) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Brotherhood
2) The Neighbors Window
3) Nefta Football Club
4) Saria
5) A Sister

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone (If You're a Girl)
2) St. Louis Superman
3) Life Overtakes Me
4) In the Absence
5) Walk Run Cha Cha

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Hair Love
2) Kitbull
3) Dcera (Daughter)
4) Sister
5) Memorable


THE FINAL GURUS OF GOLD

The last Gurus of Gold predictions for Oscar Night are up over at Movie City News.  In addition to yours truly, other Gurus this season have included: Thelma Adams, Gregory Ellwood, Mark Johnson, Dave Karger, David Poland, Steve Pond, Sasha Stone and Jeff Sneider.

According to the Gurus' collective wisdom TFF #46 films will have wins in the following categories:

Best Actress: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Best Original Screenplay: Parasite
Best International Film: Parasite
Best Film Editing: Ford v Ferrari

There are a few categories where TFF #46 films are in the #2 spot and, at least in theory, pose the greatest chance to knock off the predicted winners.  They are:

Best Picture: Parasite
Best Director: Bong Joon-ho/Parasite
Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story
Best Actor: Adam Driver/Marriage Story
Best International Film: Pain and Glory
Best Editing: Parasite
Best Makeup/Hair: Judy
Best Sound Editing: Ford v Ferrari
Best Sound Mixing: Ford v Ferrari

At most, TFF #46 films could win 14 Oscars Sunday night as at least one TFF #46 film is competing in that many categories.  Categories with zero TFF #46 nominees are: Best Supporting Actor, Documentary Feature, Animated Feature, Cinematography, Costumes, Visual Effects, Song and the three Shorts categories.

I want to give a quick shout of gratitude to Ray Pride and Movie City News for asking me back for a second season as one of the Gurus of Gold.  Hope to be back again next season.


RUIMY TAKES A STAB AT CANNES

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel has posted what he terms a "Cannes Spitball" as he takes an educated guess at a number of films that seem to stand a good chance of making the lineup for the Cannes Film Fest.  Cannes runs this year from May 12-23.

as readers of this space know, the Cannes/Telluride share list is usually considerable.  If you look at the lineups of the two fests over the past ten

 years, you can definitely see the connection:

In 2019, eight films played both fests
2018-7
2017-8
2016-7
2015-6
2014-9
2013-9
2012-10
2011-5
2010-9

That's an average of 7.8 films per year that crossover.

So, thinking about what will play at Cannes and then ultimately evaluating the titles that do eventually get chosen is a good way to make some guesses about a potential TFF #47 set of film choices.

Soooo...what does Jordan have to say in his post and, ultimately, which titles does he suggest for Cannes that seem a potential pick of TFF programmers?

Here are some films from his list that, at least this far out, might be TFF possibles:

Mia Hansen-Love's Bergman Island
Chloe Zhao's Nomadland
Sophia Coppola's On the Rocks
Nanni Moretti's Tre Piani
Ulrich Seidel's Bose Spiele

Jordan's complete post is linked here.


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Oscar Predicted Winners: The Next Eight / BAFTA Showers 1917 with Love / Writers Guild Awards / Latest Gurus of Gold

OSCAR PREDICTED WINNERS: THE NEXT EIGHT CATEGORIES

Last Thursday I posted my latest picks for The Big Eight Oscar categories.  Today "The Next Eight": International Film, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Original Score and Original Song.

This coming Thursday I will add predictions for The Last Eight categories and then on Oscar Sunday Morning itself, I will have FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR ALL 24 CATEGORIES.

Here are today's predix with TFF #47 films in Bold

INTERNATIONAL FILM

1) Parasite
2) Pain and Glory
3) Les Miserables
4) Honeyland
5) Corpus Christi


DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) American Factory
2) Honeyland
3) For Sama
4) The Cave
5) The Edge of Democracy


ANIMATED FEATURE
 1) Toy Story 4
2) Klaus
3) Missing Link
4) I Lost My Body
5) Frozen II


CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) 1917
2) Joker
3) Once Upon a Time...
4) The Lighthouse
5) The Irishman


FILM EDITING

1) Parasite
2) Ford v Ferrari
3) The Irishman
4) Jojo Rabbit
5) Joker


PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) 1917
2) Parasite
3) Once Upon a Time...
4) Jojo Rabbit
5) The Irishman


ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Joker
2) 1917
3) Marriage Story
4) Little Women
5) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker


ORIGINAL SONG

1) I'm Gonna Love Myself Again/Rocketman
2) Into the Unknown/Frozen II
3) Stand Up/Harriet
4) I'm Standing with You/Breakthrough
5) I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away/Toy Story 4


BAFTA SHOWERS 1917 WITH LOVE

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts named their winners on last night and Sam Mendes' 1917 had a very good evening winning in seven categories (out of nine nominations).

TFF #47 films earned five BAFTAs as you will see highlighted and bolded below.

Here is how the BAFTAs shook out in the feature film categories:

Best Film: 1917
Best British Film: 1917
Best British Debut: Mark Jenkin/Bait
Film Not in the English Language: Parasite
Documentary: For Sama
Animated Film: Klaus
Director: Sam Mendes/1917
Original Screenplay: Parasite
Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
Lead Actress: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Lead Actor: Joaquin Phoenix/Joker
Supporting Actress: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Original Score: Joker
Casting: Joker
Cinematography: 1917
Editing: Ford v Ferrari
Production Design: 1917
Costume Design: Little Women
Makeup and Hair: Bombshell
Sound: 1917
Special Visual Effects: 1917


Complete coverage of the BAFTAs is linked here from Indiewire.



WRITERS GUILD AWARDS

The Writers Guild of America named the best in writing for film and television in a ceremony on Saturday night.  TFF #47's Parasite, written by Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin Won, was named the Best Original screenplay for 2019.  It's the first time in the guilds history that a script for a film in a language other than English has been named the recipient of the WGA award.

Meanwhile, the Adapted Screenplay award went to Taika Waititi for penning the adaptation of Caging Skies into Jojo Rabbit.

Both films' scripts are Oscar nominated. 

The complete Writers Guild winners list for film and television is linked here from Indiewire.



LATEST GURUS OF GOLD FOR FEATURE FILM OSCAR CATEGORIES

We Gurus have our latest round of collective predictions up for all 21 feature film categories over at Movie City News.  You can find that linked here.

If we Gurus are correct, at this point we are guessing that TFF #47 films win Oscars as follows:

Parasite (2): Best International Film, Best Film Editing
Ford v Ferrari (2): Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing
Judy (1): Best Actress: Renee Zellweger
Marriage Story (1): Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern

The rest of the 21 feature categories are currently predicted to go like this:

1917 (3): Picture, Director, Cinematography
Once Upon a Time (3): Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design
Joker (2): Actor, Original Score
Little Women (2): Adapted Screenplay, Costumes
American Factory: Documentary
Toy Story 4: Animated
Bombshell: Makeup/Hair
Avengers: Endgame: Visual Effects
Rocketman: Song


Couple of quick notes:  It feels to me like Parasite is making a late surge for Best Picture, Director and Original Screenplay.  Also seeming to be gathering some heat is Jojo Rabbit.

The latest complete Gurus of Gold is linked here.


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Oscar's Predicted Winners: The Big Eight / Another List of the Most Anticipated / Berlin Films Revealed

OSCAR'S PREDICTED WINNERS: THE BIG EIGHT

We're down to a week and a half to get to Oscar night, Feb. 9th.  With it bearing down, here's where I have predicted winners in the "Big Eight" categories.  As usual, I have indicated TFF #46 films in Bold.

BEST FILM

1) 1917
2) Parasite
3) Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
4) The Irishman
5) Jojo Rabbit
6) Joker
7) Marriage Story
8) Little Women
9) Ford v Ferrari

Notes:  I could still change this prediction easily when I get to FINAL PREDICTIONS on Sunday, Feb. 9th.  Despite 1917's PGA and DGA wins and Parasite's SAG Ensemble win, I still think this is a close race between those two films and I also think there's still a reasonable set of circumstances by which Once Upon a Time wins Best Picture.  Parasite remains TFF #46's best chance to have hosted the Best Picture winner.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Sam Mendes/1917
2) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite
3) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time...
4) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman
5) Todd Phillips/Joker

Notes: It's a two horse race between Mendes and Bong.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy
2) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story
3) Charlize Theron/Bombshell
4) Cynthia Erivo/Harriet
5) Saoirse Ronan/Little Women

Notes: It's Zellweger's to lose and she's not going to lose.

BEST ACTOR

1) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker
2) Adam Driver/Marriage Story
3) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory
4) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes
5) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time...

Notes: Phoenix is a lock.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story
2) Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit
3) Margot Robbie/Bombshell
4) Florence Pugh/Little Women
5) Kathy Bates/Richard Jewell

Notes: Get used to saying: "Oscar winner Laura Dern".

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time...
2) Joe Pesci/The Irishman
3) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
4) Al Pacino/The Irishman
5) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes

Notes: Pitt might the most locked in the very locked acting categories.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Parasite
2) Once Upon a Time...
3) Marriage Story
4) 1917
5) Knives Out

Notes:  As much as there is no suspense in the acting categories...there is a ton of uncertainty here. Parasite and OUATIH are very, very tight and Marriage Story wouldn't be a huge surprise.  This will be one of those categories that separate Oscar pools...not that anyone bets on this kind of thing.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Little Women
2) Jojo Rabbit
3) The Irishman
4) Joker
5) The Two Popes

Notes: Just like Original Screenplay...this category is a barn burner as well.  Lots of thought that this is where The Academy awards Greta Gerwig in part because of her missing out on a directing nomination.  Jojo and The Irishman are right there, though.

Overall 14 of the 23 TFF #46 films' nominations are in these eight categories.



ANOTHER LIST OF THE MOST ANTICIPATED

This list of "most anticipated films for 2020 comes from Criterion.  THe films listed there are grouped in a variety of ways.  Some are grouped by distributor, some by country of origin and there are are methods.  Among the films listed, these feel most like TFF #47 options:

The Card Counter/Paul Schrader
Dune/Denis Villenueve
Untitled Velvet Underground Project/Todd Haynes
On the Rocks/Sophia Coppola
Mank/David Fincher
I'm Thinking of Ending Things/Charlie Kaufman
Blonde/Andrew Dominik
MacBeth/Joel Coen
Nomadland/Chloe Zhao
Ammonite/Frances Lee
Bergman Island/Mia Hansen Love
Charlatan/Agnieszka Holland

Note: Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch, which I have mentioned on a couple of these "Most Anticipated" lists has slipped off of them as it was announced yesterday that the film will be released on July 24th.

The complete list from Criterion is linked here.


BERLIN'S FILMS REVEALED

The Berlin International Film Festival has announced the bulk of its lineup for the 2020 edition.  The Berlin Fest is of note as we often see one or two titles from that fest announced as part of the Telluride lineup each Labor Day.

Among the films listed by Indiewire that will be playing in Germany, these jump out as TFF #47 potentials:

Irradiated/Rithy Panh
The Roads Not Taken/Sally Potter
There Is No Evil/Mohammad Rasoulof
The Salt of Tears/Philippe Garrel
Siberia/Abel Ferrara
Undine/Christian Petzold


Check out the complete Berlin lineup as reported by Indiewire here.


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92ND OSCAR NOMINATIONS-AND SOME ANALYSIS

Oscar Nominations...with Telluride films in Bold


Best Picture
1917 (Universal)
Ford v Ferrari (Fox)
The Irishman (Netflix)
Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
Joker (Warner Bros.)
Little Women (Sony)
Marriage Story (Netflix)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
Parasite (Neon)

Actor in a Leading Role
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Renée Zellweger (Judy)

Actress in a Supporting Role
Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Florence Pugh (Little Women)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)

Actor in a Supporting Role
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Directing
Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Todd Phillips (Joker)
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
Joker (Todd Phillips & Scott Silver)
Little Women (Greta Gerwig)
The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)

Original Screenplay
1917 (Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
Knives Out (Rian Johnson)
Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
Parasite (Bong Joon Ho and Jin Won Han)

International Feature Film
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Miserables (France)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)

Production Design
1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Film Editing
Ford v Ferrari (Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker)
The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Jojo Rabbit (Tom Eagles)
Joker (Jeff Groth)
Parasite (Jinmo Yang)

Cinematography
1917 (Roger Deakins)
The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
Joker (Lawrence Sher)
The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Robert Richardson)

Visual Effects
1917
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Costume Design
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Irishman
Joker
Little Women

Sound Mixing
1917
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Sound Editing
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Original Score
1917 (Thomas Newman)
Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
Little Women (Alexandre Desplat)
Marriage Story (Randy Newman)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Documentary Feature
American Factory (Netflix)
The Cave (National Geographic)
The Edge of Democracy (Netflix)
For Sama (PBS)
Honeyland (Neon)

Documentary Short Subject
In the Absence
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
Life Overtakes Me
St. Louis Superman
Walk Run Cha-Cha

Makeup and Hairstyling
1917
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Animated Feature Film
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks)
I Lost My Body (Netflix)
Klaus (Netflix)
Missing Link (United Artists Releasing)
Toy Story 4 (Pixar)

Animated Short Film
Dcera (Daughter)
Hair Love
Kitbull
Memorable
Sister

Live-Action Short Film
Brotherhood
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbors’ Window
Saria
A Sister

Original Song
"I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" (Toy Story 4) — Randy Newman
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" (Rocketman) — Elton John & Bernie Taupin
"I'm Standing With You" (Breakthrough) — Diane Warren
"Into the Unknown" (Frozen 2) — Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez
"Stand Up" (Harriet) — Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo


TFF #46 films snag 23 Oscar nominations:

Parasite-6- Picture, Director, International Film, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design.
Marriage Story-6- Picture, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Original Score
Ford v Ferrari-4- Picture, Film Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing
Two Popes-3- Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
Pain and Glory-2- International Film, Actor
Judy-2- Actress, Makeup/Hair


Nominations were led by Joker with 11.

The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and 1917 had 10 each.

Marriage Story, Little Women, Jojo Rabbit and Parasite each had six nominations.

My predictions 100 out of 124 for a success rate of 80.6%.  A little bit above my usual average.  My best categories (getting all of them correctly): Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Original Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing,).  My worst category: Costumes where I was an abysmal 2 of 5.

Categories where I had a nominee in the sixth spot: Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, International Film, Animated Feature, Film Editing, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Production Design, Live Action Short.

NBR Happens Tomorrow / Oscar Predictions Update: Acting Categories / Film Makers Featured

NBR HAPPENS TOMORROW

The national Board of Review drops its list of best films of 2019 tomorrow.  Last year its choice for Best Film, Green Book, went on to Oscar glory winning the Best Picture Oscar.

Expect the organization to announce winners of a number of individual awards in addition to Best Film such as Best Direction, Leading and Supporting performances, adapted and original screenplays and others.  In addition expect a 10 Best list, a Ten Best Independent Films list, a Five Best Documentaries list and a Five Best Foreign Film list.

TFF #46 films that could make their way onto the NBR's various lists include:

The Aeronauts
Beanpole
The Climb
Diego Maradona
Ford v Ferrari
A Hidden Life
Judy
The Kingmaker
Marriage Story
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
The Report
The Two Popes
Uncut Gems
Varda by Agnes
Waves

I'll have all the NBR/TFF breakdown on Thursday edition of MTFB.


OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: ACTING

Here's my latest batch of Oscar updates for the acting category nominations.  I last posted acting predictions on Nov. 21.  TFF #46 performances are Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy (1)
2) Charlize Theron/Bombshell (2)
3) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story (3)
4) Saoirse Ronan/Little Women (4)
5) Cynthia Erivo/Harriet (5)
6) Awkwafina/The Farewell (-)

Other possibles: Lupita Nyong'o/Us, Alfre Woodard/Clemency

BEST ACTOR

1) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker (2)
2) Adam Driver/Marriage Story (1)
3) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes (3)
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time...(4)
5) Robert DeNiro/The Irishman (-)
6) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory (5)

Other possibles: George MacKay/1917, Christian Bale/Ford v Ferrari, Eddie Murphy/Dolemite Is My Name, Taron Egerton/Rocketman, Paul Walter Hauser/Richard Jewell

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story (1)
2) Jennifer Lopez/Hustlers (2)
3) Margot Robbie/Bombshell (3)
4) Zhao Shuzhen/The Farewell (6)
5) Kathy Bates/Richard Jewell (-)
6) Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit (5)

Other possibles: Florence Pugh/Little Women, DaVine Joy Randolph/Dolemite Is My Name, Annette Bening/The Report, Maggie Smith/Downton Abbey

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time... (1)
2) Al Pacino/The Irishman (2)
3) Joe Pesci/The Irishman (5)
4) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (3)
5) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes (4)
6) Sam Rockwell/Richard Jewell (-)

Other possibles: Willem Dafoe/The Lighthouse, Wesley Snipes/Dolemite Is My Name, Alan Alda/Marriage Story, Shia LaBeouf/Honey Boy, Jamie Foxx/Just Mercy

Notes: The buzz surrounding Clint Eastwood's Richard Jewell (releasing Dec. 13) is lifting Kathy Bates, Sam Rockwell and Paul Walter Hauser into the acting conversations.   It will be interesting to see if that sustains over the next couple of weeks.

The same is true for young and virtually unknown George MacKay for his work in 1917.  The Sam Mendes film has huge buzz after some early screenings and has skyrocketed up a number of the charts from the Oscar experts for Best Picture.  Currently Awards Circuit has it at #1.   Awards Daily has it at #1 and Awards Watch has it at #4.


FILM MAKERS FEATURED

Annie Howard talks to The Two Popes Screen writer Anthony McCarten for The Hollywood Reporter here.

Anne Thompson of Indiewire talks to Adam Sandler and The Safdie Brothers about Uncut Gems here.

Joey Moser of Awards Daily talks with composer David Wingo about the music of Motherless Brooklyn.



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Oscar Predictions: Best Picture Updated First Picks for Visual and Sound / Oscar Nominations Totals for TFF #46 Films / Independent Spirit Award Nominations Announced

OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

UPDATED PEST PICTURE

Best Picture nominations predictions were last posted here on Nov. 18th.   As always, TFF #46 films are indicated in Bold.  The film or performers previous position in these predictions are indicated in parentheses.

1) Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood (1)
2) The Irishman (2)
3) 1917 (7)
4) Parasite (3)
5) Marriage Story (4)
6) Jojo Rabbit (5)
7) The Two Popes (6)
8) Joker (10)
9) Ford v Ferrari (9)
10) The Farewell (-)

Other possibles: Bombshell, Little Women, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Now for first predictions for Visual Effects, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing:


VISUAL EFFECTS

1) The Lion King
2) Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker
3) Avengers: Endgame
4) The Irishman
5) Ad Astra
6) The Aeronauts

Other possibles: 1917, Cats, Captain Marvel, Gemini Man


SOUND EDITING

1) 1917
2) Ford v Ferrari
3) Star Wars; Rise of Skywalker
4) Ad Astra
5) Avengers: Endgame
6) Once Upon a Time...

Other possibles: Joker, The Irishman, Gemini Man


SOUND MIXING

1) 1917
2) Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker
3) Ford v Ferrari
4) Ad Astra
5) Once Upon a Time...
6) Rocketman

Other possibles: Avengers: Endgame, Judy, Cats


OSCAR NOMINATION TOTALS FOR TFF FILMS

Over the last couple of weeks, MTFB has predicted all 21 feature categories for Oscar nominations.  If I'm 100% correct, this is how TFF #46 films will fare on announcement morning-Jan. 13, 2020

Marriage Story is projected to have seven nominations: Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay and Original Score

The Two Popes is projected to have five nominations: Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Production Design

Ford v Ferrari is projected to have five nominations: Picture, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing

Parasite is predicted to have four nominations: Picture, Director, Film Editing and Cinematography

Judy is projected to have two nominations: Actress and Makeup/Hair

Pain and Glory a single nomination for Actor

A Hidden Life a single nomination for Cinematography


INDIE SPIRIT NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

Independent Spirit Award nominations were announced this week and a few  TFF #46 films were in the mix.

Uncut Gems was one the bigger presences among the nominees as the film lead in total nominations (along with The Lighthouse) with five.  It was nominated for Best Feature, Direction, Actor (Sandler), Screenplay and Editing.

Marriage Story was also highly feted with nominations for Best Feature and Screenplay and the film will also receive The Robert Altman Award.

TFF #46 films with single nominations included:

A Hidden Life for Best Feature
Judy for Best Actress (Zellweger)
Waves for Best Supporting Actress (Russell)
and both Parasite and Portrait of a Lady on Fire for Best International Feature.

The complete list of Independent Spirit Award nominees can be found here from Variety



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Oscar Predicitons: Updates and First Predix:Costumes, Makeup, Song / Gurus of Gold Return / Oscar History and TFF Continues

OSCAR PREDICTIONS: SOME UPDATES AND FIRST PREDICTIONS

I'm updating the acting categories and providing first guesses in the Costume, Makeup/Hair and Original Song categories.

Acting categories were last updated on Nov. 14th.

As always, TFF #46 films are indicated in Bold.  The film or performers previous position in these predictions are indicated in parentheses.


BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy (1)
2) Charlize Theron/Bombshell (2)
3) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story (3)
4) Saoirse Ronan/Little Women (4)
5) Cynthia Erivo/Harriet (5)
6) Lupita Nyong'o/Us

Other possibles: Awkwafina/The Farewell, Alfre Woodard/Clemency


BEST ACTOR

1) Adam Driver/Marriage Story (1)
2) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker (2)
3) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes (3)
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time... (4)
5) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory (5)
6) Eddie Murphy/Dolemite Is My Name (-)

Other possibles: Robert DeNiro/The Irishman, Taron Egerton/Rocketman, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story (1)
2) Jennifer Lopez/Hustlers (2)
3) Margot Robbie/Bombshell (3)
4) Florence Pugh/Little Women (4)
5) Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit (5)
6) Zhao Shuzhen/The Farewell (-)

Other possibles: Maggie Smith/Downton Abbey, Annette Bening/The Report, DaVine Joy Randolph/My Name Is Dolemite


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time... (1)
2) Al Pacino/The Irishman (2)
3) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (5)
4) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes (3)
5) Joe Pesci/The Irishman (4)
6) Alan Alda/Marriage Story (-)

Other possibles: Willem Dafoe/The Lighthouse, Wesley Snipes/Dolemite Is My Name, Tracy Letts/Ford v Ferrari


And now for the first time predictions for Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Original Song:

COSTUMES

1) Once Upon a Time...
2) Dolemite Is My Name
3) Little Women
4) Rocketman
5) Downton Abbey
6) Jojo Rabbit

Other possibles: Harriet, The Irishman, Judy


MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Bombshell
2) Once Upon a Time...
3) Rocketman
4) Joker
5) Judy
6) The Two Popes

Other possibles: The Irishman, Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey


ORIGINAL SONG

1) Into the Unknown/Frozen II
2) Stand Up/Harriet
3) Beautiful Ghosts/Cats
4) I'm Gonna Love Me Again/Rocketman
5) Spirit/The Lion King
6) Speechless/Aladdin

Other possibles: I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away/Toy Story 4, I'm Standing with You/Breakthrough



AND THE GURUS RETURN (AND I GET TO BE ONE AGAIN)

Movie City News' Gurus of Gold, a collective of Oscar "experts" who have agreed to have our predictions accumulated and added together for a consensus set of predictions, has returned for this Oscar season.

MCN's Ray Pride has added us all together and the focus for this first wave of predictions is on Best Picture and the acting races.

The links are as follows:

Gurus on Best Picture

Gurus on the acting races

Give them a gander.

I am honored to be included with Sasha Stone/Awards Daily, Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit, Tomris Laffly/RogerEbert.com, Dave Karger/TCM, IMDb, Peter Howell/The Toronto Star and a bunch of others.


OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF CONTINUES

The project continues today with a look back at the same three categories that I provided my first predictions for above: Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Original Song:

BEST COSTUMES

1985- The Journey of Natty Gann
1990- Cyrano de Bergerac-WINNER
1993- The Piano
1994- Bullets Over Broadway
2000- Crouching Dragon Hidden Tiger, Quills
2003- Girl with a Pearl Earring
2005- Walk the Line
2008- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (scenes screened)
2009- Bright Star, Before Coco Chanel
2010- The King's Speech
2011- The Artist
2013- 12 Years a Slave, Invisible Woman
2015- Carol
2016- La La Land
2017- The Shape of Water, Darkest Hour
2018- The Favourite


Overall 20 nominations and one win.


BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1990- Cyrano de Bergerac
1994- Ed Wood-WINNER
2000- Shadow of the Vampire
2002- Frida-WINNER
2008- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button-WINNER (scenes screened)
2010- The Way Back
2011- Albert Nobbs
2014- Foxcatcher
2017- Darkest Hour-WINNER
2018- Border

Overall 10 nominations and four wins.


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

2000- Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon
2002- Frida
2003- The Triplets of Belleville
2008- Slumdog Millionaire (x2)- WINNER
2010- 127 Hours
2016- La La Land (x2)-WINNER

Overall eight nominations and two wins.


That's Thursday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Oscar Predictions Updated for Picture, Director and Screenplays / New Predictions for Cinematography, Score and Production Design / Oscar History and TFF / The True Story Behind The Aeronauts / Tracy Letts Talks Ford

OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATED

Continuing today with the new Oscar prediction schedule that will take us right up to the announcement of Oscar nominations on Jan. 13th.

Here's the latest updated predictions for Best Picture, Director and both Screenplay categories as well as first time predictions for Cinematography, Original Score and Production Design.  For the updates I have indicated the last time I posted them as well as that film's position in that previous posting.  As always all films from TFF #46 are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE (last update on Oct. 28th)

1) Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood (1)

2) The Irishman (2)

3) Parasite (4)

4) Marriage Story (3)

5) Jojo Rabbit (5)

6) The Two Popes (6)

7) 1917 (7)

8) Bombshell (8)

9) Ford v Ferrari (-)

10) Joker (-)

Other possibles: The Farewell, Little Women, Judy, Just Mercy

Notes: with its actual release to theaters, Ford v. Ferrari makes a move.

BEST DIRECTION (last update on Nov. 7th)

1) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite (2)

2) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time... (1)

3) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman (3)

4) Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story (4)

5) Sam Mendes/1917 (5)

6) Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit (-)

Other possibles: Fernando Meirelles/The Two Popes, Todd Phillips/Joker, James Mangold/Ford v Ferrari

Notes: Bong makes a move to the top spot.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (Last updated on Nov. 4th)

1) Jojo Rabbit (2)

2) The Irishman (3)

3) The Two Popes (1)

4) Little Women (4)

5) Joker (-)

6) Just Mercy (-)

Other possibles: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Hustlers, Downton Abbey

Notes: Nice jump up for Jojo Rabbit. A lot of uncertainty about which category The Two Popes will end up in.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (Last updated on Oct. 31st)

1) Marriage Story (1)

2) Once Upon a Time... (2)

3) Parasite (3)

4) The Farewell (4)

5) Bombshell (5)

6) Ford v Ferrari (-)

Other possibles: Knives Out, Dolemite Is My Name, 1917

NEW OSCAR PREDICTIONS

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Once upon a Time...

2) The Irishman

3) 1917

4) A Hidden Life

5) Parasite

6) Ad Astra

Other possibles: The Lighthouse, Ford v Ferrari, Joker, Little Women

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

2) Little Women

3) 1917

4) Marriage Story

5) Ford v Ferrari

6) Jojo Rabbit

Other possibles: Waves, The Irishman, Ad Astra

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Once Upon a Time...

2) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

3) The Irishman

4) Little Women

5) The Two Popes

6) Cats

Other possibles; 1917, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, Downton Abbey, Jojo Rabbit

OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF

Matching the new categories added to this wave of Oscar predictions, here's the history of Oscar nominations for the films that played at the Telluride Film Festival in the Cinematography, Original Score and Production Design (Art and/or Set Direction) categories:

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1993- The Piano, Farewell My Concubine
1995- Shanghai Triad
1996- Fly Away Home
2000- Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon-WINNER
2001- Amelie
2002- City of God
2003- Girl with a Pearl Earring
2004- The House of Flying Daggers
2005- Brokeback Mountain
2007- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, There Will Be Blood (scenes screened)
2008- Slumdog Millionaire-WINNER, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (scenes screened)
2009- The White Ribbon
2010- The King's Speech, Black Swan
2011- The Artist
2013- Gravity-WINNER, Nebraska, Inside Llewyn Davis, Prisoners
2014- Birdman-WINNER
2015- Carol
2016- La La Land-WINNER, Moonlight, Arrival
2017- The Shape of Water, Darkest Hour
2018- Roma-WINNER, The Favourite, Cold War

Overall 32 nominations and six wins.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

2000- Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon-WINNER
2002- Frida-WINNER
2005- Brokeback Mountain-WINNER
2006- Babel- WINNER
2008- Slumdog Millionaire-WINNER, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (scenes screened)
2010- The King's Speech, 127 Hours
2011- The Artist-WINNER
2012- Argo
2013- Gravity-WINNER
2014- The Imitation Game
2015- Carol
2016- La La Land-WINNER, Moonlight
2017- The Shape of Water-WINNER

Overall 16 nominations and a remarkable nine wins.


BEST ART DIRECTION/PRODUCTION DESIGN

1990- Cyrano de Bergerac
1994- Bullets Over Broadway
2000- Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon-WINNER, Quills
2007- Amelie
2003- The Girl with the Pearl Earring
2007- There Will Be Blood (scenes screened)
2008- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button- WINNER (scenes screened)
2010- The King's Speech
2011- The Artist
2013- 12 Years a Slave, Gravity
2014- The Imitation Game
2016- La La Land-WINNER, Arrival
2017- The Shape of Water-WINNER, Darkest Hour
2018- Roma, The Favourite, First Man

Overall 20 nominations and four wins.


THE TRUE STORY BEHIND THE AERONAUTS

Pathikrit Sanyal writes of the actual incidents that inspired the creation of the Tom Harper film The Aeronauts starring Eddie Redmayne and Felicity Jones.

As you might expect, the real story differs at points from the actual incidents including the fact that the ascent depicted in the film was made by two men rather than a man and a woman.

Here is that story from MEAWW.com.


TRACY LETTS TALKS FORD

Entertainment Weekly posted this Derek Lawrence interview with actor and writer Tracy Letts.  Letts plays Henry Ford II, the Ford of Ford v Ferrari.

Ford v Ferrari is in theaters now having opened this past weekend and winning the top box office spot.

Here's the link to the Letts interview at EW.com


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Oscar Predictions Expand / So Much Content...Interviews and Profiles: The Report, Waves, Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story, Diego Maradona, Uncut Gems, Tell Me Who I Am, Parasite and Pain and Glory / Oscar History and TFF: Documentary and Animated Feature

OSCAR PREDICTIONS EXPAND

With Oscar nominations announced in just two months (Jan. 13th), I'm expanding nomination predictions beginning with today's post.

I have the categories broken into groups so that over the course of each couple of weeks, I'll be updating each of the 21 feature categories.  I'll add the three Shorts categories as we approach nomination morning in January.

Today I'll be updating all four of the acting categories as well as making first attempts for nomination predictions for Documentary, Animated Feature and Film Editing.

Acting categories were last updated on Nov. 11th for Best Actress and Actor.  Supporting Actress and Actor were last updated on Oct. 21 and 24 respectively.

As always, TFF #46 films are indicated in Bold.  The film or performers previous position in these predictions are indicated in parentheses.



BEST ACTRESS

1) Renee Zellweger/Judy (1)
2) Charlize Theron/Bombshell (2)
3) Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story (3)
4) Saoirse Ronan/Little Woman (4)
5) Cynthia Ervio/Harriet (5)

Other possibles: Awkwafina/The Farewell, Lupita Nyong'o/Us, Alfre Woodard/Clemency

BEST ACTOR

1) Adam Driver/Marriage Story (1)
2) Joaquin Phoenix/Joker (2)
3) Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes (3)
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (4)
5) Antonio Banderas/Pain and Glory (-)

Other possibles: Eddie Murphy/Dolemite Is My Name, Robert DeNiro/The Irishman, Taron Egerton/Rocketman, Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Laura Dern/Marriage Story (1)
2) Jennifer Lopez/Hustlers (2)
3) Margot Robbie/Bombshell (4)
4) Florence Pugh/Little Women (-)
5) Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit (-)

Other possibles: Zhao Shuzhen/The Farewell, Maggie Smith/Downton Abbey, Annette Bening/The Report, Thomasin McKenzie/Jojo Rabbit

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (1)
2) Al Pacino/The Irishman (2)
3) Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes (4)
4) Joe Pesci/The Irishman (5)
5) Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (4)

Other possibles: Willem Dafoe/The Lighthouse, Alan Alda/Marriage Story, Wesley Snipes/Dolemite Is My Name, Shia Labeouf/Honey Boy

And now for first predictions in three categories:

BEST DOCUMENTARY

1) American Factory
2) Apollo 11
3) One Child Nation
4) Sea of Shadows
5) The Cave

Other possibles: Knock Down the House, Honeyland, The Kingmaker, The Biggest Little Farm(*TFF #45)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Toy Story 4
2) Frozen II
3) The Missing Link
4) I Lost My Body
5) How to Train Your Dragon/Hidden World

Other possibles: Klaus, Abominable, Funan

FILM EDITING

1) The Irishman
2) Ford v Ferrari
3) Once Upon a Time in ... Hollywood
4) 1917
5) Parasite

Other possibles: Marriage Story, Jojo Rabbit, The Two Popes

MTFB's next post will include updates for Best Picture, Director, and Screenplays and first time predictions for Cinematography, Original Score and Production Design.


SO MUCH CONTENT...INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

A blizzard of interviews and profiles have appeared over the last few days regarding films that played at TFF #46.  I've tried to capture many of them to connect them for you.  Here's the retrospective:


The Report's writer/director Scott Z. Burns talks to Brian Welk for The Wrap

The Reports' Annette Bening talks to Jessica Zack for The San Francisco Chronicle's Datebook

Waves' writer director Trey Edward Shults talks to Jacqueline Coley for Rotten Tomatoes

Waves' cast members talk to Mackenzie Nichols for Variety

Motherless Brooklyn director and screen writer Edward Norton talks to Anne Thompson for Indiewire

Ford v Ferrari director James Mangold talks to Anthony D'Alessandro for Deadline

Mangold also talks to John Horn for The Frame

Mangold talks to Anne Thompson of Indiewire

Marriage Story's Alan Alda talks to Eric Kohn for Indiewire

Marriage Story's Laura Dern talks to Erin Nyren for Variety

Diego Maradona director Asif Kapadia talks to Annie Howard for The Hollywood Reporter

Uncut Gems' Adam Sandler talks to Latesha Harris for Variety

Twins Alex and Marcus Lewis, the focus of the doc Tell Me Who I Am,  talk to Matthew Carey for Deadline

Parasite's writer/director Bong Joon-ho talks to Patrick Bzeski for The Hollywood Reporter

Parasite actors Park So-dam and Choi Woo-shik talk to Demi Kampakis for The Film Stage

Pain and Glory actor Antonio Banderas talks to Latesha Harris for Variety




OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: DOCUMENTARY AND ANIMATED FEATURE

The project continues documenting the history of Oscar nominees and the Telluride Film Festival with a look at Documentary Feature and Animated Feature nominees from the fest through the years.


BEST DOCUMENTARY

1981- Eight Minutes to Midnight
1983- Seeing Red
1984- The Times of Harvey Milk-WINNER
1989- Super Chief: The Life and Legacy of Earl Warren
1991- Wild by Law
1996- Ayn Rand: A Sense of Life
2002- Bowling for Columbine-WINNER
2003- The Fog of War-WINNER
2007- Encounters at the End of the World
2010- Inside Job-WINNER
2011- Pina
2012- The Gatekeepers
2013- The Missing Picture, The Act of Killing
2014- Salt of the Earth
2015- The Look of Silence, Winter on Fire
2016- Fires at Sea
2017- Faces Places
2018- Free Solo-WINNER

Overall 20 nominations and five wins.



BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

2002- Spirited Away-WINNER
2003- The Triplets of Belleville
2007- Persepolis
2010- Chico and Rita, The Illusionist
2013- The Wind Rises
2015- Anomalisa
2017- Loving Vincent

Overall eight nominations and one win.


That's Thursday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Oscar Prediction Update: Best Director / Oscar History and TFF: Best Foreign Language-International Film / The Two Popes Has a Trailer

OSCAR PREDICTION UPDATE: BEST DIRECTOR

Here are my current predictions for the Best Direction Oscar with the past prediction listed in the parentheses.  TFF #46 films are in Bold.

1) Quentin Tarantino/Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (1)

2) Bong Joon-ho/Parasite (3)

3) Martin Scorsese/The Irishman (1)

4) Noah Baumbach/Marriage Story (4)

5) Sam Mendes/1917 (-)

Other Possibles: Taika Waititi/Jojo Rabbit, Fernando Meirellles/The Two Popes, Todd Phillips/Joker, Greta Gerwig/Little Women, Lulu Wang/The Farewell

Notes:  A bit of shuffling at the top with Bong Joon-ho and Tarantino in a dead heat and Scorsese close behind. Also, there's been a fairly substantial surge for Sam Mendes and 1917.

OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF-FOREIGN LANGUAGE/INTERNATIONAL FILM

Here's my continuation of the complete series of nominations for TFF films for each of the 21 feature film categories.  Today's review is for the recently renamed film category that has been called Foreign Language Film and has been renamed International Feature beginning with this year's Oscars.

Here's the history:

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1981- Three Brothers
1983- Carmen, Entre Nous
1984- Camila
1985- Colonel Redl
1986- The Decline of the American Empire, My Secret Little Village
1987- Babbette's Feast-WINNER, Au Revoir Les Enfants
1988- Salaam Bombay, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
1989- Cinema Paradiso-WINNER
1990- Cyrano de Bergerac, The Nasty Girl, Ju Don
1991- Raise the Red Lantern, Oxen
1993- Farewell My Concubine
1994- Dust of Life, Strawberry and Chocolate
1996- Koyla
1998- Central Station, Tango
2000- Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon-WINNER
2001- Amelie, No Man's Land
2002- Man Without a Past
2003- The Barbarian Invasions
2005- Paradise Now
2006- The Lives of Others-WINNER
2007- The Counterfeiters-WINNER
2008- Waltz with Bashir, Revanche
2009- The White Ribbon, A Prophet
2010- Incendies
2011- A Separation-WINNER, In Darkness, Footnote
2012- Amour-WINNER, A Royal Affair, No
2014- Ida- WINNER, Leviathan, Wild Tales
2015- Son of Saul-WINNER
2016- Toni Erdmann
2017- A Fantastic Woman, The Insult, Loveless
2018- Roma-WINNER, Cold War, Shoplifters

Overall 53 nominations and 10 wins.


THE TWO POPES HAS A TRAILER

Fernando Meirelles' The Two Popes debuted at Telluride over Labor Day weekend to a great response.  I've said it before, by the time I got to the last day and a half of the fest the film I was hearing the most buzz about was The Two Popes.

Now Netflix, prepping the film for its release on Nov. 27th followed by its Netflix bow on Dec. 20th, has dropped a new trailer for the film.

Here's that from YouTube:

Also, here's the link to the story about the trailer release from The Hollywood Reporter.


As a bonus, here's a link to an interview with Two Popes screenwriter Anthony McCarten from Gold Derby.


That's Thursday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Oscar Predictions Update: Adapted Screenplay / Latest Big Eight Count / Oscar History and TFF: Adapted Screenplay / Sasha Stone Has a New Thing

OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

I'm posting my latest take on the Best Adapted Screenplay race today.  My last Original Screenplay predictions were posted on Oct. 3rd.  Each film is followed by its position from the last prediction posting in parentheses.  TFF #46 films are Bold.


1) The Two Popes (1)
2) Jojo Rabbit (2)
3) The Irishman (3)
4) Little Women (-)
5) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (4)

Other possibles: Joker, Just Mercy, Ford v. Ferrari, Hustlers

Notes:  The top three contenders: Popes, Jojo and Irishman seem to be in very solid position.  After that it gets murkier.  Little Women has come on strong during the past month almost certainly as screening reactions have started appearing via social media but is no lock and a fifth nominee is totally up in the air.


LATEST BIG EIGHT COUNT

According to my latest predictions in each of the Big Eight Oscar categories (Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay), here's were TFF #46 films stand in as far as those categories are concerned:

Marriage Story (6): Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay
The Two Popes (4): Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
Parasite (3): Picture, Director, Original Screenplay
Judy (1): Actress
Pain and Glory (1): Actor
The Report (1): Supporting Actress


OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Here's the complete history of nominees and winners for the Best Original Screenplay category and the Telluride Film Festival:


1989- My Left Foot
1990- Reversal of Fortune
1996- Sling Blade-WINNER
2000- Crouching Tiger  Hidden Dragon
2002- City of God
2005- Brokeback Mountain-WINNER, Capote
2006- Little Children
2007- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, There Will Be Blood (scenes screened)
2008- Slumdog Millionaire-WINNER, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (scenes screened)
2009- Up in the Air, An Education
2010- 127 Hours
2011- The Descendants
2012- Argo-WINNER
2013- 12 Years a Slave-WINNER
2014- The Imitation Game-WINNER
2015- Room, Carol
2016- Moonlight-WINNER, Arrival
2018- Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Overall 24 nominees and seven wins.



SASHA STONE HAS A NEW THING

Awards Daily founder Sasha Stone has added a new podcast to that realm called Gold Tripping.  The podcast is billed as Sasha looking back at her 20 year involvement in handicapping the Oscar race and her life during that time.

Here's the link to the new podcast.

Give it a listen.


That's Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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