I'm posting my latest take on the Best Adapted Screenplay race today. My last Original Screenplay predictions were posted on Oct. 3rd. Each film is followed by its position from the last prediction posting in parentheses. TFF #46 films are Bold.
1) The Two Popes (1)
2) Jojo Rabbit (2)
3) The Irishman (3)
4) Little Women (-)
5) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (4)
Other possibles: Joker, Just Mercy, Ford v. Ferrari, Hustlers
Notes: The top three contenders: Popes, Jojo and Irishman seem to be in very solid position. After that it gets murkier. Little Women has come on strong during the past month almost certainly as screening reactions have started appearing via social media but is no lock and a fifth nominee is totally up in the air.
LATEST BIG EIGHT COUNT
According to my latest predictions in each of the Big Eight Oscar categories (Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay), here's were TFF #46 films stand in as far as those categories are concerned:
Marriage Story (6): Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay
The Two Popes (4): Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
Parasite (3): Picture, Director, Original Screenplay
Judy (1): Actress
Pain and Glory (1): Actor
The Report (1): Supporting Actress
OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Here's the complete history of nominees and winners for the Best Original Screenplay category and the Telluride Film Festival:
1989- My Left Foot
1990- Reversal of Fortune
1996- Sling Blade-WINNER
2000- Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon
2002- City of God
2005- Brokeback Mountain-WINNER, Capote
2006- Little Children
2007- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, There Will Be Blood (scenes screened)
2008- Slumdog Millionaire-WINNER, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (scenes screened)
2009- Up in the Air, An Education
2010- 127 Hours
2011- The Descendants
2012- Argo-WINNER
2013- 12 Years a Slave-WINNER
2014- The Imitation Game-WINNER
2015- Room, Carol
2016- Moonlight-WINNER, Arrival
2018- Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Overall 24 nominees and seven wins.
SASHA STONE HAS A NEW THING
Awards Daily founder Sasha Stone has added a new podcast to that realm called Gold Tripping. The podcast is billed as Sasha looking back at her 20 year involvement in handicapping the Oscar race and her life during that time.
Here's the link to the new podcast.
Give it a listen.
That's Monday.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)
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