Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
Today I'm continuing my occasional look at some of the Oscar experts and their predictions as concerns films that played at TFF. Today I have a rundown from the newly released first attempt from Awards Daily's Oscar Squad. The "Squad" consists of AD Head Sasha Stone and 10 of the folks affiliated with the site.
The Squad predicts for13 categories including: Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Acting, Screenplays, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes and Animated Feature.
Here's the breakdown of their predictions for TFF #50 films:
Poor Things (9): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor (Ruffalo), Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Costumes and Production Design.
The Holdovers (5):Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay.
Anatomy of a Fall (4): Best Picture, Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing.
The Zone of Interest (3): Best Picture, Direction, Adapted Screenplay.
We have a first look at a couple of photos of Angelina Jolie as opera superstar Maria Callas, Per Indiewire the film has a SAG/Aftra interim agreement and is set to begin production this week. An eight week shoot is planned.
I would not be surprised to see this pop up at Venice next fall and then make an appearance at TFF #51.
INTERVIEWS:
From Indiewire: Sandra Huller on both anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest.
Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reported on Friday that he has confirmed the buzz we'd been hearing the last couple of weeks that Jeff Nichols' The Bikeriders will debut at Telluride. The film stars Tom Hardy, Austin Butler, Boyd Holbrook, Michael Shannon and Jodie Comer.
"It follows the rise of a Midwestern motorcycle club through the lives of its members."
Nichols previous films include Loving, Midnight Special, Take Shelter and Mud.
For me, its another really great entry into the TFF #50 lineup...which, if what we think is going to Telluride shows at The SHOW, is rocking.
AND MAYBE...
In recent posts I've been mentioning the possibility of Angelina Jolie bringing her latest film-Without Blood-to TFF #50. I'm still not quite all the way to the point where I'm predicting if for the lineup yet but I am getting closer. There's a good deal of buzz that the Jolie follow-up to her 2017 First They Killed My Father which also played Telluride. That previous appearance is one of the reasons that I think might make Without Blood a real possibility for TFF #50.
THE BUZZING
We're getting to the time of the year where MTFB starts to pop up in other places. This past week MTFB was referenced by Sasha Stone at Awards Daily in her Aug. 4th post about Oscar and the potential effects of the dual writers' and actors' strike.
Speaking of buzz, on the Awards Radar podcast this week Joey Magidson and his guests Mark Johnson and Ryan McQuade talked a good deal about Telluride and probably the most exciting speculation is about Killers of the Flower Moon and a possible tribute to Martin Scorsese. They feel that's more not less likely. I had been hearing a little of that speculation within the last week to ten days. If you listen to the podcast that discussion occurs at 1:13:58.
If you've read this space before, you know that Flowers is my big hope for the year whether it plays T-ride or not and I have been very clear that I have not believed that it would. Many of you know that I did a day of background on the film which makes me even more keen to actually see it as soon as possible.
I hate to get all worked up but...there is a little smoke...
On the other hand, another film that's high on my list to see is David Fincher's The Killer starring Michael Fassbender as a professional assassin who comes to a question what his choices have been.
Like Flower Moon, I have thought The Killer to be an unlikely film for TFF #50 inclusion and now World of Reel suggests that outcome is probable. WOR chief Jordan Ruimy writing this weekend:
"...not much else is known about Fincher’s upcoming 118-minute film. That’ll change when it premieres in September at the Venice Film Festival. So far, no other festivals have announced it, and I’m hearing it’s not going to Telluride or Toronto. Maybe NYFF is an option."
LATE BREAKING FROM LONDON
First image of Emerald Fennell's Saltburn via Screen Daily
Overnight the BFI London Film Festival announced that its opening night film will be Emerald Fennell's Saltburn. The announcement added further evidence that the film will be bowing initially at Telluride. Saltburn is listed by LFF as its International Premiere which adds to the comments from Venice Film Fest head Alberto Barbera from last week that Saltburn will play Telluride. Additionally we can deduce from its International Premiere status that it will skip Toronto.
The New York Film Festival's full Main Slate announcement on Tuesday allowed us to interpret information about possible TFF #49 selections but mostly at the margins. It also posed a couple of mysteries.
That said, here's a review of last week's Ten (Plus) Bets:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) Broker/Kore-eda
4) Holy Spider/Abbasi
5) The Wonder/Lelio
6) Empire of Light/Mendes
7) Good Night Oppy/White
8) Bardo/Inarritu
9) TAR/Field
10) Bones and All/Guadagnino
11) Armageddon Time/Gray
12) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper
13) A Compassionate Spy/James
14) Close/Dhont
15) Aftersun/Wells
Others Possibilities: Master Gardener/P. Schrader, Showing Up/Reichardt, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren,Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, Blonde/Dominik, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre
And here is the latest Ten (Plus) Bets:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) Broker/Kore-eda
4) Holy Spider/Abbasi
5) The Wonder/Lelio
6) Empire of Light/Mendes
7) Armageddon Time/Gray
8) Bardo/Inarritu
9) TAR/Fields
10) Bones and All/Guadagnino
11) Good Night Oppy/White
12) The Pale Blue Eye/Cooper
13) A Compassionate Spy/James
14) Aftersun/Wells
15) Close/Dhont
Others Possibilities: Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins, Athena/Gavras
See the next section for New York analysis and its effect or lack thereof.
NEW YORK ANNOUNCES MAIN SLATE
In the run-up to yesterday's announcement NYFF had already announced White Noise, Armageddon Time, Till and All the Beauty and the Bloodshed as various special presentations. From those announcements I had gleaned that White Noise, Till and The Inspection were off the list for a Telluride screening, Cagey wording for the Armageddon Time announcement and lack of a premiere designation for All the Beauty made me think that those films could still be TFF possibilities.
With yesterday's announcement, here's what I think we can say:
Lack of any premiere status makes me believe that Armageddon Time, TAR, One Fine Morning and Aftersun are headed to TFF #49.
Premiere status for Master Gardener (North American premiere) and Showing Up (North American premiere) tell us that both films will NOT be at Telluride. Other films that I had as borderline Telluride possibilities that will not make the trip to the San Juans: EO, No Bears, R.M.N., Return to Seoul and Stars at Noon.
There were also films with no premiere status that likely will NOT be T-ride players because they played at Sundance: All That Breathes and Descendant.
Mysteries:
1) Laura Poitras' All the Beauty and the Bloodshed was listed in some NYFF's release materials without a premiere designation and in others as a U.S. premiere. Confusing? Of course. My feeling is that the documentary probably IS a U.S. premiere at NYFF and not bound for T-ride. We'll see.
2) Joanna Hogg's The Eternal Daughter has no premiere status which lead me to think for awhile on Tuesday that it could be at T-ride. Then a sharp-eyed MTFB reader reminded me that the film has a North American premiere status for Toronto. Now, it's my belief that Eternal Daughter will probably play Fantastic Fest and that would account for its lack of premiere status in the NYFF announcement.
3) Park Chan-wook's Decision to Leave has no NYFF premiere status either. Perhaps it is also headed to Fantastic Fest? I tend to believe the Toronto North American premiere status and thus no Telluride.
4) Ruben Ostlund's Cannes Palme d'Or winner Triangle of Sadness also has no NYFF premiere status but like Decision to Leave is listed by Toronto as a North American premiere. Like Decision to Leave, I suspect that TIFF's designation is correct and so Triangle of Sadness isn't headed to T-ride.
5) She Said was not announced as a part of NYFF's "Main Slate". Back on August 1st I reported that She Said was going to land at NYFF and as a World Premiere. That came from reporting from Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel.
Now, NYFF likely has some other films to add but it seems more than weird that She Said wasn't a part of the Main Slate of films announced Tuesday.
So, it seems to me that She Said may be more uncertain as a NYFF WP than previously thought.
On the other hand...can you say NYFF "secret screening"?
TEASER FOR BONES AND ALL
The peeps behind Luca Guadagnino's Bones and All dropped a teaser late yesterday afternoon. I'm expecting the film to SHOW at TFF #49 based upon an interview with Venice Film Fest head Alberto Barbera in which he claimed that the film would be at Telluride.
Here's the teaser from YouTube:
MARSHALL FLORES TRACKING THE FILMS AND FESTS
Awards Daily's Marshall Flores has been tracking all of the news regarding fall film fests. That chart is here:
Films that have landed at at least three of the fests (*Telluride, Cannes, Venice, Toronto and New York) are:
Armageddon Time*
Broker*
Decision to Leave
The Eternal Daughter
Holy Spider*
One Fine Morning*
Saint Omer
Films on the list that "technically" could still be in play for Telluride:
Blonde (though the word continues to be it'll be at Venice only)
Close
Don't Worry Darling (noop)
Golda (with Helen Mirren...late word from Ruimy last night is it"ll be out in 2023)
She Said (though rumored to WP at NYFF...no announcement yet...secret screening?)
OSCAR WINNERS PREDICITONS #5: PICTURE, SUPPROTING ACTOR AND MORE
I'm back predicting the winners of this year's Oscars with ten days left until the awards are passed out. Today I am updating the supporting acting categories as well as predicting the winners for Costume Design, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects for the first time since nominations were announced. As always TFF #47 film are in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) Nomadland
2) The Trial of the Chicago 7
3) Promising Young Woman
4) Minari
5) Judas and the Black Messiah
6) Mank
7) Sound of Metal
8) The Father
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Yuh-Jung Youn/Minari
2) Maria Bakalova/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
3) Glenn Close/Hillbilly Elegy
4) Olivia Colman/The Father
5) Amanda Seyfried/Mank
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah
2) Sacha Baron Cohen/The Trial of the Chicago 7
3) Leslie Odom, Jr./One Night in Miaimi
4) Paul Raci/Sound of Metal
5) LaKeith Stanfield?Judas and the Black Messiah
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2) Emma
3) Mulan
4) Mank
5) Pinocchio
BEST MAKEUP/HAIR
1) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2) Hillbilly Elegy
3) Emma
4) Mank
5) Pinocchio
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1) Tenet
2) The Midnight Sky
3) Mulan
4) The One and Only Ivan
5) Love and Monsters
PLAY ALONG
Oscar voters get ballots and can start voting today. In that spirit, Awards Daily has announced its annual Oscar predicting contest. You can play along with everyone from amateurs to experts to the members of the Academy. Heck, you can lift my predictions if you want to!
As I have been doing periodically, here's a look at where an Oscar expert is currently predicting for Best Picture and the number and categories of nominations that she is predicting for each.
Today's expert is founder and head of Awards Daily, website that is regarded as one of the most influential Oscar sites on the web.
The films are ordered by number of nominations. TFF films are in Bold.
Mank (12 noms): Picture, Director (Fincher), Actor (Oldman), Supporting Actress (Seyfried), Supporting Actor (Howard), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Sound, Costumes, Original Score.
News of the World (10 noms): Picture, Director (Greengrass), Actor: (Hanks), Supporting Actress (Zengel), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score,
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (8): Picture, Actress (Davis), Actor (Boseman), Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Sound, Costumes, Original Score.
Nomadland (6 noms): Picture, Director (Zhao), Actress (McDormand), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing
The Father (5 noms): Picture, Director (Zeller), Actor (Hopkins), Supporting Actress (Colman), Adapted Screenplay.
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (4 noms): Picture, Supporting Actor (Langella), Film Editing.
Minari (3 noms): Picture, Director (Chung), Supporting Actress (Youn).
One Nigh in Miami (3 noms): Picture, Supporting Actor (Odom), Adapted Screenplay.
Promising Young Woman (3 noms): Picture, Actress (Mulligan), Original Screenplay.
The United States vs. Billie Holiday (1 nom): Picture
WORLD OF REEL'S 35 MOST ANICIPATED
Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel website has posted its list of the 35 most anticipated titles for 2020. Much like I did The Playlist's list earlier this week I have tried to parse the WOR list for TFF #48 possibilities. Here's what I found (with the position on Jordan's list):
We have a new trailer for Chloe Zhao's marvelous Nomadland (I've actually seen it twice). Also a new poster for the film as well.
Here's the new poster:
And also, via YouTube, here's the new trailer for the film:
METACRITIC ON THIS YEAR'S FILMS
Here's a scan of Metacritic's current Top 25 films for 2020 thus far with my eye toward where films are that either played TFF #46 or where selected for inclusion in TFF's announced list of films for TFF #47. By their position on the Metacritic chart:
San Sebastian is planning for its film fest which runs Sept. 18-26...roughly two weeks after TFF and a week after Toronto. They've announced their first set of selected films which include a number of Cannes "branded" films. Of not to Telluride watchers probably are Summer of '85, Another round and True Mothers...which, barring being World Premieres for TIFF might indicate them as possibilities for TFF #47.
I'll point out again that when TIFF announced their Cannes titles a few weeks back, I pointed out that the TIFF press language called their selections as "premieres" without any qualifying status (i.e. "World" or "North American". My point was the notion that if TIFF could have announced them as a "World" or "North American" premiere they would have. Of course, I could be totally wrong.
Still, perhaps these selections are pointing to the most likely Cannes "crossovers" this year.
Netflix has announced that Charlie Kaufman's I'm Thinking of Ending Things will drop on Sept. 4th which is now the second day of the Telluride Film Festival. The announcement would certainly suggest that the film would not be at TFF #47 in a "normal" world. In a Covid-19 world, who knows?
But it also probably underscores Netflix's earlier revelation that they won't be including ANY of their titles at ANY film fest this fall.
As many of you know, I have been harboring a theory that there Netflix might pop some of their titles at Telluride under cover of Telluride's policy of not revealing titles until the day before the fest starts.
My takeaway from this information that my theory seems even less likely to come to pass and it was a highly unlikely scenario to begin with. Still, I'm not likely to abandon it it completely.
SASHA WEIGHS IN ON OSCAR
My friend Sasha Stone, founder of Awards Daily posted some serious and early Oscar prognostication since my last post. Included in the article re her picks for Best PIc as well as a list forwarded to her from another friend. I can tell you that Sasha's friend is also pretty good at predicting Oscar fortunes.
The friend's list includes:
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
The French Dispatch (Searchlight)
Hamilton (Disney)
Mank (Netflix)
Minari (A24)
Nomadland (Searchlight)
Stillwater (Focus)
Tenet (Warner Bros.)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
West Side Story (Fox/Disney)
Sasha's list includes:
Mank
West Side Story
Nightmare Alley
News of the World
Tenet
Nomadland
Stillwater
Trial of the Chicago 7
The Father
Da 5 Bloods
Films on both lists: Mank, Da Five Bloods, Chicago 7, Nomadland, Stillwater, Tenet and West Side Story. Of those only Nomadland seems to me to be a solid TFF prospect. Da Five Bloods, Mank and Chicago 7 are all Netflix joints now and I don't see Tenet or West Side Story being at a fest at all. Stillwater from Focus is intriguing. Whether it's a serious TFF possibility depends on if it's finished and what path Focus Features decides to follow.
The friend's other three films are: The French Dispatch, Hamilton and Minari. Of that list only The French Dispatch might be in the cards for TFF. Hamilton is playing now on Disney+, Minari was a Sundance film.
Sasha's other four are: The Father (also a Sundance title), Guillermo Del Toro's Nightmare Alley which recent reports suggest wasn't quite half-filmed when production shut down due to the pandemic-I don't think it'll be close to ready for TFF. Actually, I'll be surprised of it's ready in time for Oscar consideration this year even with the extended release window currently in place. Sasha's third film is Paul Greengrass' News of the World which hasn't been high on my list for TFF all along as Greengrass has never played anything at Telluride and also due to the lack of much a Telluride profile from its distributor/studio (Columbia/Universal).
I'm posting my latest take on the Best Adapted Screenplay race today. My last Original Screenplay predictions were posted on Oct. 3rd. Each film is followed by its position from the last prediction posting in parentheses. TFF #46 films are Bold.
1) The Two Popes (1)
2) Jojo Rabbit (2)
3) The Irishman (3)
4) Little Women (-)
5) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (4)
Other possibles: Joker, Just Mercy, Ford v. Ferrari, Hustlers
Notes: The top three contenders: Popes, Jojo and Irishman seem to be in very solid position. After that it gets murkier. Little Women has come on strong during the past month almost certainly as screening reactions have started appearing via social media but is no lock and a fifth nominee is totally up in the air.
LATEST BIG EIGHT COUNT
According to my latest predictions in each of the Big Eight Oscar categories (Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay), here's were TFF #46 films stand in as far as those categories are concerned:
Marriage Story (6): Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay
The Two Popes (4): Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay
Parasite (3): Picture, Director, Original Screenplay
Judy (1): Actress
Pain and Glory (1): Actor
The Report (1): Supporting Actress
OSCAR HISTORY AND TFF: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Here's the complete history of nominees and winners for the Best Original Screenplay category and the Telluride Film Festival:
1989- My Left Foot
1990- Reversal of Fortune
1996- Sling Blade-WINNER
2000- Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon
2002- City of God
2005- Brokeback Mountain-WINNER, Capote
2006- Little Children
2007- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, There Will Be Blood (scenes screened)
2008- Slumdog Millionaire-WINNER, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (scenes screened)
2009- Up in the Air, An Education
2010- 127 Hours
2011- The Descendants
2012- Argo-WINNER
2013- 12 Years a Slave-WINNER
2014- The Imitation Game-WINNER
2015- Room, Carol
2016- Moonlight-WINNER, Arrival
2018- Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Overall 24 nominees and seven wins.
SASHA STONE HAS A NEW THING
Awards Daily founder Sasha Stone has added a new podcast to that realm called Gold Tripping. The podcast is billed as Sasha looking back at her 20 year involvement in handicapping the Oscar race and her life during that time.
Yesterday I wrote a little bit about rumors swirling that a secret film would screen at Telluride this week. My list of what that might be was as follows:
1) None of the rumors are true and there is no surprise screening at all.
2) Todd Haynes Project (Dark Waters or Dry Run or...being snarky now...Dry Water or Dark Run or Dry Dark Water Run)
3) Nomadland
4) Little Women
5) Ad Astra
6) Joker
7) Bombshell
8) El Camino/Breaking Bad
For about three hours yesterday afternoon several of us that play this game thought we had the rumored secret figured out as Focus Features announced that Todd Haynes' Dark Waters has been dated for release. Deadline.com was the first to report the film will be in limited release on Nov. 22nd. The story also revealed that the film has been titled Dark Waters which, as far as I know, is the first definitive reference to the film's title. Dry Run had also been bandied about as a possible title.
A lot of film Twitter made clear that they viewed this as a likely "tell" that the film is probable for Telluride's lineup that will be officially unveiled on Thursday.
Then early on Monday evening came Indiewire's story about the Dark Waters release written by Anne Thompson. Anne's story included this passage:
"The movie (Dark Waters), which co-stars Tim Robbins and Bill Pullman, will not be ready in time for the earlier fall film festivals, but might turn up at AFI Fest in November. Focus will open the movie limited November 22, with expansion a week later."
I have to believe Anne has the lowdown straight on this.
So...what does it mean?
1) The #1 possibility I listed above still looks like my best guess...I.E. no film plays as a surprise.
Then with the Thompson story in mind, we drop Dark Waters down to the last possibility and the rest of the guesses look like this:
2) Nomadland
3) Little Women
4) Ad Astra
5) Joker
6) Bombshell
7) El Camino/Breaking Bad
8) Dark Waters
Each year since 2012 I have polled a list of industry professionals at the conclusion of the fest to rate the films they saw on a 1-5 scale just like I ask you readers to do and over the years many, many people have been kind enough to share their thoughts about them. This year's crew of Professionals is a large one. I think the largest collection of pros since I started doing this. The list is also Deeeep!
So, my huge thanks to the following who have agreed to rate this year and a special shout out to Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter and Sasha Stone of Awards Daily who were part of that first 2012 group and, I believe, the only two who have participated every year.
Here's this year's list of Professionals:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
J. Don Birnam-Jorge T/SplashReport.com
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Marshall Flores/Awards Daily
Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit
Gary Kramer/Salon
Tomris Laffly/RogerEbert.com
Scott Menzel/We Live Entertainment
Kenny Miles/We Live Entertainment
Mark Neglia/Next Best Picture
Eugene Novikov/Rotten Tomatoes
John Rhodes/Screencraft
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
Chris Willman/Variety
Anonymous
I'll have the ratings compiled and ready for posting about a week after the fest closes.
CIRCUIT BREAKER PODCAST
In Awards Circuit's Circuit Breaker podcast they launch into a full examination of Telluride specific discussion just before the 40 min. mark. They also mention the blog you're currently reading.
For the eighth consecutive year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride. All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".
Report your ratings with any of the following contact methods:
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
Hello to everyone on this Tuesday. How's your July so far?
THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019; MANY A SMALL FIRM-FINAL PART
-BLEECKER STREET MEDIA
Bleecker Street's Telluride bona fides are barely existent but they have a film that is in post-production that could be in line to make the grade for The SHOW this year. Sally Potter's Molly is currently listed as a 2020 release but...it has reportedly been in post-production since February.
Potter has some Telluride cred having screened her Yes there in 2004 and Ginger and Rosa in 2012 (with Molly star Elle Fanning in that cast). Additionally, frequent Telluride guest/participant/resident Laura Linney is also featured in the cast.
-MUSIC BOX FILMS
Francois Ozon could return to Telluride via Music Box with By the Grace of God. Ozon screened Frantz at Telluride in 2016 (also distributed by Music Box). Adding a bit of fuel to the fire was the film's win of Berlin;s Silver Bear award in February.
Chances for each film-
Molly 35% (would be higher if it was scheduled as a 2019 release)
By the Grace of God 35%
TELLURIDE AND OSCAR PART TWO: BEST DIRECTOR
Picking up where I left off yesterday, I'm continuing an eight part series of articles tracing the connection between films that have played Telluride's Film Fest and the eight "major" Oscar categories.
Yesterday I looked at T-ride and the Best Picture nominees from the past 14 years. Today it's the directors. Here are the directors that played films at TFF since 2005 who were Oscar nominated. Additionally, if that director won it is indicated with ***.
2005: Ang Lee/Brokeback Mountain***, Bennett Miller/Capote
2006: Alejandro Inarritu/Babel
2007: Jason Reitman/Juno, Julian Schnabel/The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Paul Thomas Anderson/There Will Be Blood (I count this and Benjamin Button even though we only saw a portion of each film in tributes to Daniel Day Lewis and David Fincher)
2008: Danny Boyle/Slumdog Millionaire***, David Fincher/The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2009: Jason Reitman/Up in the Air
2010: Tom Hooper/The King's Speech*** Darren Aronofsky/Black Swan.
2011: Michel Hazanavicius/The Artist***, Alexander Payne/The Descendents
2012: Michael Haneke/Amour
2013: Alfonso Cuaron/Gravity***, Steve McQueen/12 Years a Slave, Alexander Payne/Nebraska
2014: Alejandro Inarritu/Birdman***, Morton Tyldum/The Imitation Game, Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher
2015: Tom McCarthy/Spotlight, Lenny Abrahamson/Room
2016: Damian Chazelle/La La Land***, Barry Jenkins/Moonlight, Denis Villeneuve/Arrival, Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea
2017: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water***, Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
2018: Alfonso Cuaron/Roma***, Pawel Pawlikowski/Cold War, Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite
Over these 14 years 31 Best Directing nominations have landed with films that screened as a part of TFF with nine wins.
A couple of notes:
2016 was insane with four of the five nominees having come from Telluride films. The only nominee that year not from a TFF film: Adam McKay for The Big Short
It's good to be one of "The Three Amigos". The three Mexican directors who have been labeled with this sobriquet: Inarritu, Cuaron and Del Toro account for four of the nine wins. Cuaron twice. Inarritu has a second directing Oscar for The Revenant which, of course, did not screen at Telluride.
Thursday I'll take a glance at Best Actress nominees from TFF since 2005.
AND AN ASSIST FROM A FRIEND
I am always appreciative when one of the people I have become friends with that are actual journalists have the kindness to reference the blog. I always see a bump in traffic when something that happens.
With last Friday's first "Ten Bets" for TFF #46 I got a great assist from my friend Sasha Stone at Awards Daily. Sasha linked the Ten Bets and offered some of her views/analysis.
I also think she sort of promised that I could meet Tom Hanks if he's at the fest with A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. At least that's what I'm choosing to believe.
Welcome to this first summer 2019 Tuesday edition of MTFB...
THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: SONY PICTURES CLASSICS
Over the years I've been attending Telluride's Film Festival no other distribution company has placed more films at TFF than Sony Pictures Classics and it really isn't even close. Look at the SPC/TFF history over the past 16 years:
2018: The White Crow (1)
2017: A Fantastic Woman, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Foxtrot, Loveless, The Rider (5)
2016: The Eagle Huntress, Maudie, Norman, Toni Erdmann (4)
2015: Son of Saul (1)
2014: Foxcatcher, Leviathan, Red Army, Mr. Turner, Wild Tales, Salt of the Earth and Merchants of Doubt (7)
2013: The Invisible Woman, The Lunchbox, The Past, Tim's Vermeer and Jodorowsky's Dune (5)
2012: The Gatekeepers, At Any Price, Rust and Bone, No, Wadjda, Amour (6)
2011: A Dangerous Method, In Darkness, Footnote, A Separation (4)
2010: Incendies, Of Gods and Men, Tamara Drewe, Another Year, The Illusionist, Inside Job (6)
2009: The Last Station, The White Ribbon, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet, An Education (5)
2008: Waltz with Bashir, I've Loved You So Long, O'Horten (3)
2007: Brick Lane, When Did You Last See Your Father, Persepolis, The Band's Visit, The Counterfeiters, Steep! (6)
2006: Jindabyne, The Lives of Others, Volver, The Italian (4)
2005: Breakfast on Pluto, Capote, Cache, The Child (4)
2004: Being Julia, House of Flying Daggers, Bad Education, Merchant of Venice, Up and Down, Yes (6)
2003: The Fog of War, My Life Without Me, The Triplets of Belleville, Young Adam (4)
That's 71 films over 16 festivals averaging an astonishing 4.4 films a year. Last year and 2015 were anomalies with only a single SPC film making the TFF lineup.
When I posted the SPC assessment last summer I only had then with two possibilities: Capernaum and The Fall of the American Empire. I listed Capernaum with a 60% chance at TFF and American Empire at 30% and, as you may remember, neither film played The SHOW.
In my defense, I did say in last summer's post that 2018 could be a year wherein SPC might only have a single film at Telluride and they didn't acquire distribution rights to Ralph Fiennes' The White Crow until August 13th, more than two months after I posted the SPC assessment.
This year, SPC looks likely to be back at TFF but probably not at the 4-5 film level. Right now, they list five films that I think could be in play. Three of those are films from Cannes plus a documentary and World War II drama.
The Cannes films are Pedro Almodovar's Pain and Glory, Ira Sachs' Frankie and Michael Covino's The Climb. Both the Almodovar and the Covino films were critically lauded at the French fest last month with Pain and Glory winning Best Actor for Antonio Banderas and The Climb winning a jury award in the Un Certain Regard section. Frankie did not fare as well with critics or jurors.
As I have written here a few times, Almodovar was a common invitee to TFF in the past but hasn't screened a film there since 2006's Volver. Perhaps Pain and Glory is the film that returns the Oscar winner to the San Juans.
The other two SPC films are a documentary about the life of musical legend John Prine entitled John Prine: Hello in There and the drama The Song of Names starring Clive Owen and Tim Roth. SPC acquired The Song of Names in April.
My assessment at the moment is actually that The Climb might be the front runner for SPC's chances to be on the Telluride list. Here's my best guestimate of the chances for each of the five films listed above to make The SHOW
The Climb 50%
Pain and Glory 40%
Frankie 30%
The Song of Names 30%
John Prine: Hello in There 20%
Thursday's distribution spotlight will shine on Fox Searchlight.
A LOOK AT THE WHISTLERS
Still from The Whistlers via The Playlist
In 2006 Corneliu Porumboiu screened his Cannes award winning film 12:08 East of Bucharest at the 30th Telluride Film Festival. He hasn't had a film return since.
That could change this year with his latest Cannes entrant The Whistlers. IMDb describes the film as a comedy and a crime film. The story centers on a policeman attempting to spring a crooked businessman from prison complicated by the need to use different languages.
The film played moderately well as a part of the Palme competition lineup at last month's Cannes fest but was not an award winner.
Earlier this week, a new international teaser trailer became available for the film. Here that is from YouTube:
The Playlist posted an extensive story on the film on May 18th for the film's Cannes debut. The post include multiple clips and stills from the film. That Playlist story is linked here.
The Whistlers does not have U.S. distribution at this point.
STONE'S FIRST ASSESSMENT
Sasha Stone, who has been a good friend to me over the years, has her first assessment of the Best Picture landscape for this year at her website Awards Daily.
Sasha also includes as a part of her review Best Pic sentiments from Anne Thompson of Indiewire and Erik Anderson of Awards Watch.
Sasha's list ultimately includes ten films most of which could potentially be a part of the TFF #46 lineup.
Among the ten films she lands on are: Scorsese's The Irishman, Tarantino's Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Gerwig's Little Women and Heller's A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.
As I mentioned in my last post, the Oscar peeps named their short lists in nine categories on Monday electing to do so all in one wave rather than separately. Consequently, here's a snapshot of where films from TFF landed in the categories that were included among the nine:
Documentary (15 on the short list): Free Solo
Foreign Language (9 on the list): Birds of Passage, Shoplifters, Roma and Cold War. Missing from the list: Border and Girl.
Makeup/Hair (7 on the list): Border
Score (15 on the list): First Man
Song: (15 on the list): Revelation from Boy Erased
Visual Effects (10 on the list): First Man
Live Action Short (10 on the list): Caroline, Fauve
No TFF films were among the short listed films in the Documentary Shorts category or the Animated Shorts.
INDIEWIRE'S CRITICS' POLL FOR 2018 SAYS TFF #45 WAS GOOOOD
The crew at Indiewire have done their annual compilation of critics' assessments for the year. The massive undertaking included the responses of 232 critics and after the dust settled, films that played at Telluride in 2018 fared remarkably well.
Indiewire posted the top films and performances in a number if categories on Monday and here's where TFF films landed.
Best Film (of 10)
1. Roma
2. First Reformed (TFF #44)
4. The Favourite
5. Cold War
6. Shoplifters
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
4. Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite
5. Paul Schrader/First Reformed (TFF #44)
Best Actress
1. Olivia Colman/The Favourite
2. Yalitza Aparicio/Roma
4. Joanna Kulig/Cold War
5. Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Actor
1. Ethan Hawke/First Reformed (TFF #44)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Rachel Weisz/The Favourite
3. Emma Stone/The Favourite
Best Supporting Actor
2. Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever forgive Me?
Best Documentary
4. Free Solo
Best Screenplay
1. The Favourite
2. First Reformed (TFF #44)
3. Roma
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
In a separate piece, Imdiewire runs down the top 50 films as rated by the 232 critics that they surveyed and both TFF #45 and TFF #44 were well represented:
43) Birds of Passage
38) Lean on Pete***
35) Border
30) The Other Side of the Wind
25) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
21) First Man
11) The Rider***
6) Shoplifters
5) Cold War
4) The Favourite
2) First Reformed***
1) Roma
Sasha Stone at Awards Daily posted a passionate endorsement of Damien Chazelle's First Man on her website this week. By and large I agree with her assessment about the film and, frankly, were I a voting member of the Academy it would be at the top of my ballot.
It seems a little unusual to me that First Man hasn't performed better at the box office and during this awards season. In part because there is a group of people that experienced the film at Telluride who all feel much the same way-people that write about films for a living and that I have come to know at least a little bit. We,have all expressed our belief in the film's quality and if you follow specific media accounts, you can deduce some the people I'm referencing...Sasha being among that group.
It also seems weird that a film that scored so well on my post-festival collection of ratings from fest-goers and business insiders, hasn't connect with the wider public.
I have come to think of Telluride as a terrific bellwether for were the awards season is likely to go. I have come to the conclusion that T-ride has become an excellent microcosm of film-goers that collectively react much like the Academy will.
But it doesn't seem that way this year with this film.
Maybe this is a disconnect between the Telluride crowd and the rapidly evolving membership of the Academy as it has tried to increase its diversity over the past few years. Maybe the First Man reaction or lack thereof is an anomaly that won't repeat at TFF #46 and the track record of the last decade or so will reassert itself.
Maybe I'm just wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.
And it's not that First Man is going to be a total miss come Oscar nomination morning. It'll likely be nominated for Score, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects. It may get in for Cinematography and Film Editing. Claire Foy still seems to have a shot at a Supporting Actress nomination. Even the costumes and production design could still be in the mix for nominations.
Additionally, the Broadcast Film Critics Association gave it 10 nominations last week including Best Picture and Best Direction. Oscar predictor Kristopher Tapley of Variety/InContention posted his first set of predictions last week and First Man was in seven categories including Best Picture.
But the consensus right now is that the film isn't likely to a Best Picture or Directing nominee on Jan. 22nd and that, to me, seems wrong.
Good Monday everyone... I've got a full edition of MTFB today.
FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR 2018
First up today is my first Oscar predictions for 2018. As regular readers know, I shift gears after each year's SHOW is completed (as well as Venice and Toronto) and, until Oscar night, the focus of this space becomes focused on the awards twists and turns that TFF films are a part of.
Consequently, I also endeavor to provide predictions about the Oscar race including my own set of prognostications. Over the next few months I'll also pay attention to some of the larger critic's top ten and "best of" lists as well as many of the film guild awards. All of which lead up to Oscar nomination announcement morning (Jan. 22) and the 91st Oscars ceremony on Feb. 24.
Additionally, this year, as I reported a few days back, this year my predictions will also be included as part of The Gurus of Gold at Movie City News.
It's an exciting time.
So here you are. My first set of predix for the four most major of major categories: Picture, Direction, Actress and Actor.
BEST PICTURE
1) First Man
2) A Star Is Born
3) Roma
4) Green Book
5) The Favourite
6) BlacKkKlansman
7) If Beale Street Could Talk
8) Black Panther
9) Can You Ever Forgive Me?
10) Boy Erased
Others: Eighth Grade, Widows, The Front Runner, Vice
BEST DIRECTION
1) Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
2) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
3) Damien Chazelle/First Man
4) Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman
5) Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite
Others: Barry Jenkins/If Beale Street Could Talk, Ryan Coogler/Black Panther, Peter Farrelly/Green Book, Steve McQueen/Widows, Adam McKay/Vice
BEST ACTRESS
1) Glenn Close/The Wife
2) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born
3) Melissa McCarthy/ Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4) Olivia Colman/The Favourite
5) Julia Roberts/Ben Is Back
Others: Nicole Kidman/Destroyer, Yalitza Aparicio/Roma, Viola Davis/Widows, Toni Collette/Heredity
BEST ACTOR
1) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
2) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book
3) Ryan Gosling/First Man
4) Lucas Hedges/Boy Erased
5) Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate
Others: John David Washington/BlacKkKlansman, Christian Bale/Vice, Hugh Jackman/The Front Runner, Ethan Hawke/First Reformed
TFF #45 Breakdown if these predictions were 100% accurate (I'm picking nine nominees for Best Picture):
First Man (3): Best Picture, Direction, Actor
The Favourite (3): Best Picture, Direction, Actress
Roma (2) Best Picture, Direction
Can You ever Forgive Me? (2): Best Picture, Actress
Boy Erased (1) Best Actor
Additional Possibilities:
The Front Runner (2): Best Picture, Actor
Boy Erased (1): Best Picture
Roma (1): Best Actress
Destroyer (1): Best Actress
And from TFF #44...
First Reformed (1): Best Actor
CONTINUED OSCAR INSIGHT
Both Sasha Stone at Awards Daily and Erik Anderson of Awards Watch post updates for the Oscar season each Friday. Sasha's is titled Predictions Friday while Erik's is Frontrunner Friday. Clayton Davis of Awards Circuit updates weekly on Mondays. I'll try to make sure to provide those links each week. I'll also be adding Scott Feinberg's Feinberg Forecast (The Hollywood Reporter) , Kristopher Tapley (Variety) and others as the season really gets rolling.
I saw two big pieces appear this weekend that delved into the back story of the efforts to finish Orson Welles final film The Other Side of the Wind. Both Chris O'Falt for Indiewire and Alex Ross for The New Yorker put up extensive stories about how the film was rescued and finished.
Ali Abbasi's TFF #45 selection and Cannes' Un Certain Regard winner Border made a splash this weekend as it was named winner of the World Fiction prize at The Los Angeles Film Festival as well as having a U.S. trailer release.
The film was one of the more divisive offerings at this year's SHOW as evidenced by the disparate reactions from my collection of ratings from both the attendees of the fest, who had it at the #16 spot in their ratings and the Professionals for whom it ended up at their #8 spot.
