Does San Sebastian List Tell Us Anything? / I'm Thinking of Ending Things Goes Early / Sasha Weighs In on Oscar

DOES SAN SEBASTIAN LIST TELL US ANYTHING?

San Sebastian is planning for its film fest which runs Sept. 18-26...roughly two weeks after TFF and a week after Toronto.  They've announced their first set of selected films which include a number of Cannes "branded" films.  Of not to Telluride watchers probably are Summer of '85, Another round and True Mothers...which, barring being World Premieres for TIFF might indicate them as possibilities for TFF #47.

I'll point out again that when TIFF announced their Cannes titles a few weeks back, I pointed out that the TIFF press language called their selections as "premieres" without any qualifying status (i.e. "World" or "North American".  My point was the notion that if TIFF could have announced them as a "World" or "North American" premiere they would have.  Of course, I could be totally wrong.

Still, perhaps these selections are pointing to the most likely Cannes "crossovers" this year.


Here's the San Sebastian initial announcement from Variety.


I'M THINKING OF ENDING THINGS GOES EARLY

Netflix has announced that Charlie Kaufman's I'm Thinking of Ending Things will drop on Sept. 4th which is now the second day of the Telluride Film Festival.  The announcement would certainly suggest that the film would not be at TFF #47 in a "normal" world.  In a Covid-19 world, who knows?

But it also probably underscores Netflix's earlier revelation that they won't be including ANY of their titles at ANY film fest this fall.

As many of you know, I have been harboring a theory that there Netflix might pop some of their titles at Telluride under cover of Telluride's policy of not revealing titles until the day before the fest starts.

My takeaway from this information that my theory seems even less likely to come to pass and it was a highly unlikely scenario to begin with.  Still, I'm not likely to abandon it it completely.


SASHA WEIGHS IN ON OSCAR

My friend Sasha Stone, founder of Awards Daily posted some serious and early Oscar prognostication since my last post.  Included in the article re her picks for Best PIc as well as a list forwarded to her from another friend.  I can tell you that Sasha's friend is also pretty good at predicting Oscar fortunes.

The friend's list includes:

Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
The French Dispatch (Searchlight)
Hamilton (Disney)
Mank (Netflix)
Minari (A24)
Nomadland (Searchlight)
Stillwater (Focus)
Tenet (Warner Bros.)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
West Side Story (Fox/Disney)

Sasha's list includes:

Mank
West Side Story
Nightmare Alley
News of the World
Tenet
Nomadland
Stillwater
Trial of the Chicago 7
The Father
Da 5 Bloods

Films on both lists: Mank, Da Five Bloods, Chicago 7, Nomadland, Stillwater, Tenet and West Side Story.  Of those only Nomadland seems to me to be a solid TFF prospect.  Da Five Bloods, Mank and Chicago 7 are all Netflix joints now and I don't see Tenet or West Side Story being at a fest at all.  Stillwater from Focus is intriguing.  Whether it's a serious TFF possibility depends on if it's finished and what path Focus Features decides to follow.

The friend's other three films are: The French Dispatch, Hamilton and Minari.  Of that list only The French Dispatch might be in the cards for TFF.  Hamilton is playing now on Disney+,  Minari was a Sundance film.

Sasha's other four are: The Father (also a Sundance title), Guillermo Del Toro's Nightmare Alley which recent reports suggest wasn't quite half-filmed when production shut down due to the pandemic-I don't think it'll be close to ready for TFF.  Actually, I'll be surprised of it's ready in time for Oscar consideration this year even with the extended release window currently in place.  Sasha's third film is Paul Greengrass' News of the World which hasn't been high on my list for TFF all along as Greengrass has never played anything at Telluride and also due to the lack of much a Telluride profile from its distributor/studio (Columbia/Universal).

Sasha's complete article is here and includes some mention of Best Director and Best Actor possibilities.

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Toronto Announces First Titles / Film Fests Reacting to Oscar Date Change / The Distribs: Focus Features

TORONTO ANNOUNCES FIRST TITLES

The Toronto International Film Festival announced a number of titles yesterday that they are planning to include as a part of a pared back TIFF.  Numerous reports yesterday indicate that TIFF will program approximately 50 films this year.  That contrasts with the common inclusion of 275-300 titles that are customarily a part of the TIFF lineup.

AMong titles announced yesterday were Francis Lee's Ammonite, Thomas Vinterberg's Another Round and Naomi Kawase's True Mothers-three films which I have had on the TFF #47 list of possibles for some time (I've been particularly high on chances that Ammonite might be a TFF choice).

While major publications have not labeled the World Premieres, a couple of the films have been referenced that way.  Indiewire tweeted that Idris Elba starrer Concrete Cowboys will be World Premiering at TIFF and The Danish Film Institute said the same about Another Round.  If that is the case, then that all but removes those titles from TFF #47 consideration.  Further, it implies that entire list of films announced by TIFF are probably World Premieres as well. Halle Berry's directing debut Bruised is also on the list of announced TIFF films.

Other interesting notes:  TIFF will have an initial five days of on-site socially distanced presentations and past that will largely be online.  Other titles will be announced as the summer progresses.

Coverage is here from Variety and Indiewire.




FALL FILM FESTS REACTING TO OSCAR DATE CHANGE

Last week Anne Thompson wrote a piece for Indiewire with her take on how the fall film fests are reacting to the recent announcement that the Oscars ceremony will take place in late April of 2021, a full two months later than their originally announced date.

Among the items of interest mentioned in the piece are:

Telluride is said to be releasing practical plans by mid-July.  Additionally, there are still hurdles for the fest to get through between now and Labor Day.  Thompson writes:

"The Telluride Film Festival is proceeding as though the festival is happening, with practical plans to be revealed by mid-July. But the festival will be dependent on whether the state of Colorado allows theaters to open in time. If not, the county will need to obtain a variance from the state to show films in theaters."

A side note of interest is that Thompson reports that the Toronto International Film Fest is supposed to announce some of their plans within the next few days:

"September’s Toronto festival, which is determined to meet any eventuality and will announce its plans before the end of June."

The third interesting tidbit is in regards to Sony Pictures Classics as they make plans within a shifting landscape.  From the article:

“We kind of plan and prepare,” said Tom Bernard, co-president of Sony Pictures Classics, who is juggling his release schedule and waiting to see who shows up for “Tenet” on July 31. “And be ready to tonally change the plan if more variables show up. We’ll send our films everywhere we can. We don’t know.”

Which sounds to me like we can probably plan on seeing some SPC projects at Telluride in some form.  I took a look at the current SPC slate in my post on June11th.


Here's Thompson's Indiewire story



THE DISTRIBS: FOCUS FEATURES

Today's look at distributors and what they might submit for TFF #47 focuses on Focus Features.  I have some confidence that Focus has some interest in submitting films for Telluride this year even amidst the pandemic.

So that begs the question...what would they bring?  Their two biggest current projects are Tom McCarthy's Stillwater and Edgar Wright's Last Night in Soho.  Stillwater's still set for release on Nov. 6th while Soho has been set for release on April 23rd.  Those release dates suggest that Stillwater is much more likely as a Focus entry for TFF #47 than Soho.  Adding to our calculation is the fact that McCarthy's Spotlight began its run to Oscar glory in 2015 at Venice followed immediately by an appearance at TFF # 42.

Focus has three other films that I believe have at least some limited possibility of making a play at Telluride: Marilyn Agrelo's Sesame Street documentary Street Gang, Emmy, Golden Globe and SAG Award nominated actress Robin Wright's feature directorial debut-Land (I think I remember Wright being at TFF in 2007) and Eddie Huang's Boogie.


Chances:

Stillwater  50%
Land 35%
Street Gang 25%
Boogie 15%
Last Night in Soho 5%

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Views of Cannes' Titles (That We Might See?) / The Distribs: Searchlight

VIEWS OF CANNES' TITLES (THAT WE MIGHT SEE?)

With the announcement on Wednesday of 50+ films that will carry the seal of official selection for the 73rd Cannes Film Festival going forward through the rest of 2020 and into 2021 we began to see the release of tearers, trialers and stills from a njumber of projects.  I'm passing along some of those that I came across over the past few days with an emphasis being on thise titles that feel like they could make their way to Telluride.

TRALER FOR THE FRENCH DISPATCH/WES ANDERSON (YouTube)

TRAILER FOR ANOTHER ROUND/THOMAS VINTERBERG (YouYube)

TEASER FOR ETE '85 (SUMMER '85)/FRANCOIS OZON (YouTube)

TEASER FOR TRUE MOTHERS/NAOMI KAWASE (YouTube)

STILLS FROM MANGROVE AND LOVER'S ROCK/STEVE MC QUEEN (The Film Stage)

THE DISTRIBS: SEARCHLIGHT

The annual summer look at film distribution outfits that have had a significant relationship with the Telluride Film Festival over the years begins today.

We'll begin our analysis with TFF stalwart Searchlight (used to be Fox Searchlight but underwent the name alteration after Disney bought them).

Searchlight's recent history with TFF:

2019: A Hidden Life (1)
2018: The Favourite, Can You Ever Forgive Ne?, The Old Man and the Gun (3)
2017: The Shape of Water (Best Picture Oscar), Battle of the Sexes (2)
2016: No Show
2015: He Named Me Malala (1)
2014: Birdman (Best Picture Oscar), Wild (2)
2013: 12 Years a Slave (Best Picture Oscar) (1)
2012: No Show
2011: Shame, The Descendants (2)
2010: Never Let Me Go, 127 Hours, Black Swan (3)
2009: No Show
2008: Slumdog Millionaire (Best Picture) (1)
2007: Juno, The Savages (2)
2006: The Last King of Scotland, The Namesake (2)
2005: Bee Season (1)
2004: Kinsey (1)

That means Searchlight averages just under 1 1/2 films at TFF each year over the last 16 years.  This year their cupboard is full of films that could make an appearance at TFF.  As we'll be saying all summer...so much is going to depend on the perception of film makers, talent, distributors and pass holders as to what films actually end up in The SHOW.

That said, Searchlight has four contenders.

The first to mention is Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch.  It's a film that would not have been on the Telluride radar at all if things were "normal" but the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in it being moved off its original release date to a current announced date of Oct. 16th.  That signals that the film could conceiveably play any or all of the fall fests TFF, TIFF, Venice and/or New York.  It was believed that it would be the opening night film for Cannes original May dates, you know that it must be ready to screen for audiences.

Next up is Chloe Zhao's Nomadland starring Frances McDormand.  This film was on my lookout list last year! However, I was surprised that we didn't see it show up on the Cannes list last week.  That could be a warning sign.  It could also mean that Searchlight decided not to go after a Cannes slot ofr the film...maybe Venice?

The other two Searchlight properties may have trouble being ready for a TFF date.  Michael Showalter's The Eyes of Tammy Faye went into post-production in December and Taika Waititi's Next Goal Wins went into post in January.  With the shutdown of the industry in March due to the pandemic, both films are question marks at this time.

Also, a quick word about a fifth film, Guillermo Del Toro's Nightmare Alley.  Prior to the pandemic I might have thought that this film had an outside shot at making Telluride but it looked like Del Toro would have to really work quickly to get it done in time.  Now, however, with IMDb describing the film as "filming" (as of Jan. 20th) I have to think that it's going to be a 2021 release.

Chances for TFF #47:

The French Dispatch 40%
Nomadland 40%
Tammy Faye and Next Goal Wins 25%

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