Toronto Announces Today/ Distributor Monday #7: Focus Features / Venice Set to Announce-Many Possibilities / No Battle After Another / Eleanor Has a Date

TORONTO ANNOUNCES TODAY

We expect to see a bunch of titles announced by the Toronto International Film Festival this morning and them clues as to what films will have been selected for Telluride.  Stay tuned to MTFB social Media for those revelations.  

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Of course I'll have a full re-cap on Thursday when I post next.  That will also include the news from Venice (coming tomorrow) and a new Ten Bets list.

DISTRIBUTOR MONDAY #6: FOCUS FEATURES

While I have been running through the major distribution players based on recent appearances at the Telluride Film Festival I'm sure that many of you have noticed that in some instances the pickings seem lean.  That's not the case with Focus Features.  I count six films that Focus Features has that could possibly be playing Telluride.

Over the last nine fests, Focus has landed a film at T-ride in seven of those years.  They missed in 2016 and 2019.  They would have had at least one film in the Covid cancelled 2020 fest. Overall 10 Focus films have screened at Telluride since 2015 (11 if you count the 2020 TFF).  Additionally, the Focus presence has increased recently with 7 of these titles playing with the last four years.

Here's their track record at Telluride since 2015:

2015: Suffragette

2017: Darkest Hour

2018: Boy Erased

2020: TFF #47 would have screened The Way I See It

2021: Belfast, The Card Counter

2022: Armageddon Time

2023: The Holdovers, The Bikeriders

2024: Conclave, Piece by Piece

So it's been a pretty solid run and I expect that Focus will have a robust presence at TFF #52.  The six films that might make the lineup: Hamnet-which we think is locked as they have been announced as Canadian Premiere for Toronto-, Bugonia, The History of Sound, Anemone, Pressure and Song Sung Blue.  Here's some info on each.  Participants who have been to TFF previously are indicated with *. The films presented in alphabetical order:

Anemone.  Dir. Ronan Day-Lewis.  Stars: Daniel Day-Lewis*, Sean Bean, Samantha Morton.  Release date: Oct. 10th.  IMDb description:

Family bonds between fathers, sons, and brothers are explored as complex relationships unfold through personal journeys and generational conflicts.

Three rime Oscar winner Daniel Day-Lewis comes out of retirement as both acts and co-wrote the script.  Of course, Day-Lewis was one of the tributees at TFF in 2007.  Brad Pitt is one of two listed producers on the film.  If you're not excited to see what this film is...well...

Bugonia. Dir. Yorgos Lanthimos*.  Stars: Emma Stone*, Jesse Plemons*, Alicia Silverstone.  Release date: Oct. 31st.  IMDB description:

Two conspiracy-obsessed young men kidnap the high-powered CEO of a major company, convinced that she is an alien intent on destroying planet Earth.

After having screened The Favourite and Poor Things at Telluride both starring Emma Stone you have to think the chances are good that Bugonia will follow the same path from a Venice premiere to a Telluride play.  A couple of notes, though.  Lanthimos' Kinds of Kindness did not go that direction in 2024 having played Sundance and then Cannes.  Also, all three of those films were distributed by Searchlight so what path Focus might desire.

Hamnet. Dir. Chloe Zhao*.  Stars: Jesse Buckley*, Paul Mescal, Emily Watson*, Joe Alwyn.  Release date: Dec. 12th.  IMDb description:

The story of Agnes - the wife of William Shakespeare - as she struggles to come to terms with the loss of her only son, Hamnet. A human and heart-stopping story as the backdrop to the creation of Shakespeare's most famous play, Hamlet.

As mentioned above, this film seems to be lock for Telluride based on the Toronto Fest announcing it as a Canadian Premiere this past week.

The History of Sound. Dir. Oliver Hermanus*.  Stars: Paul Mescal, Chris Cooper, Josh O'Connell.  Release date: Sept. 12th..  IMDb description:

Two young men during World War I set out to record the lives, voices and music of their American countrymen.

Mescal and O'Connor are two of the hottest tickets around right now.  I had been pretty high on its chances of a Telluride play what with the distributor and Oliver Hermanus having previously hacing Living at TFF #49,  but the announced Sept. 12th release date is awfully soon after T-ride.  Also, the lukewarm critical reception at Cannes also made me less bullish.  Of late, I'm thinking it's still possible.  A quick note: Mubi is also listed by IMDb as a domestic distributor of the film.

Pressure.  Dir. Anthony Maras.  Stars: Andrew Scott, Kerry Condon, Brendan Frasier, Damian Lewis, Chris Messina.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

A ticking clock thriller based on the extraordinary true story of the 72 hours leading up to D-Day.

The more detailed plot summary reads:

In the seventy two hours leading up to D-Day, all the pieces are in place except for one key element--the British weather. Britain's chief meteorological officer James Stagg (Scott) is called upon to deliver the most consequential forecast in history, locking him into a tense standoff with the entire Allied leadership. The wrong conditions could devastate the largest ever seaborne invasion, while any delay risks German intelligence catching on. With only his trusted aide Captain Kay Summersby to confide in, and haunted by a catastrophic D-Day rehearsal, the final decision rests with Supreme Allied Commander Dwight D. Eisenhower. With only hours to go, the fate of the war and the lives of millions hang in the balance.

To be honest, this is more a "wish for" than an expectation.  Its lack of an announced release date makes it questionable but I am very intrigued by the premise and it's Andrew Scott.

Song Sung Blue.  Dir. Craig Brewer.  Stars: Hugh Jackman*, Kate Hudson, Fisher Stephens*.  Release date: Dec. 25th.  IMDb description:

Lightning and Thunder, a Milwaukee husband and wife Neil Diamond tribute act, experience soaring success and devastating heartbreak in their musical journey together.

Look, this is doubtful as a TFF play but it sounds interesting.  the Dec. 25th release date signals that Focus has some confidence that it will play well with audiences.  So, you now...maybe.

Overall, could this be the first year that Focus lands more than two films at TFF?  That's possible.  Hamnet's in.  Bugonia seems likely and maybe History of Sound.  I'd love, love, love for Anemone to show up at T-ride as well as Pressure but they're chances are much more tenuous.

Chances:

Hamnet 95%

Bugonia 60%

The History of Sound 40%

Anemone 25%

Pressure 20%

Song Sung Blue 20%

VENICE SET TO ANNOUNCE-MANY POSSIBILITIES

The Venice Film Fest will announce the bulk of its lineup tomorrow.  As close observers know, over the years there has usually been a substantial overlap between films that play Venice and then Telluride.  So the information we get on what Venice will screen this year will, by itself neither rule in or rule out a T-ride play.  Of more import to our Telluride calculus is Venice's schedule which will be announced in about three weeks.  Films that screen in the first 2-4 days have a shot at also getting set up to play TFF.

Still what they choose is a nice piece of info to know.

World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy posted his most recent list of Venice possibilities last Friday.

This what he has with what I think are Telluride possibles indicated with ***

MAIN COMPETITION CONTENDERS

After the Hunt (Luca Guadagnino)***

A House of Dynamite (Kathryn Bigelow)***

Jay Kelly (Noah Baumbach)***

Bugonia (Yorgos Lanthimos)***

Frankenstein (Guillermo del Toro)***

The Smashing Machine (Benny Safdie)

Father Mother Brother Sister (Jim Jarmusch) 

The Ballad of a Small Player (Edward Berger)***

No Other Choice (Park Chan-wook)

La Grazia (Paolo Sorrentino)***

The Wizard of the Kremlin (Olivier Assayas)***

In the Hands of Dante (Julian Schnabel)***

Ann Lee (Mona Fastvold) 

Hamnet (Chloe Zhao)*** 

Orphan (Laszlo Nemes)*** 

Untitled/Gaza (Kaouther Ben Hania)

One Year of School (Laura Samani)

Mother Bhumi (Chong Keat Aun) 

Below the Clouds (Gianfranco Rosi)

Duse (Pietro Marcello)

I Wanted to Kill Her (Leonardo Di Costanzo)

The Stranger (Francois Ozon)*** 

À pied d’œuvre (Valérie Donzelli)

Chocobar (Lucrecia Martel) 

OTHER POSSIBILITIES

The Fence (Claire Denis)

Wake of Umbra (Carlos Reygadas)

Chocobar (Lucrecia Martel)

At the Sea (Kornél Mundruczó)

Caught Stealing (Darren Aronofsky)

Deux Pianos (Arnaud Desplechin)

Anemone (Ronan Day-Lewis)***

Tre Ciotole (Isabel Coixet)

El Ser Querido (Rodrigo Sorogoyen)

The Way of the Wind (Terrence Malick)***

Switzerland (Anton Corbijn)

Deliver Me From Nowhere (Scott Cooper)***

Redoubt (John Skoo)

& Sons (Pablo Trapero)

Occupation (Myroslav Slaboshpytskyi)

Dao (Alain Gomis)

Rosebush Pruning (Karim Ainouz)

Une Illusion (Naomi Kawase)

The Dreamed Adventure (Valeska Grisebach)

Yellow Letters (Ilker Çatak)

Unidentified (Haifaa al-Mansour)***

Silent Friend (Ildiko Enyedi)

Rose (Markus Schleinzer)

Untitled (Abu Bakr Shawky)

Calle Malaga (Maryam Touzani)

Musk (Alex Gibney)***

NO BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

Frequent readers will know that I have flirted in recent posts about the outside possibility that Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another might end up screening at Telluride.  Well...

World of Reel put that notion to rest Sunday afternoon.

Jordan Ruimy writes:

"A source close to the situation tells me that Warner Bros. has made the decision to skip all the major fall festivals for “One Battle After Another,” including Venice, Telluride, and TIFF."

The complete WOR post is here.

Unless this is great cover for a TFF "sneak" it looks like to PTA at TFF.

ELEANOR HAS A DATE

Sony Pictures Classics has dated the release of Scarlett Johannsson's directorial debut, Eleanor the Great.  The film will be released nationwide on Sept. 26th which feels right for a potential TFF play OR a TFF/TIFF combo OR Toronto only.  That's according to Deadline.  The film stars 95year old actress June Squibb who might find herself in the Oscar race for Best Actress for this film.

The film screened at Cannes as a part of  the Un Certain Regard section.  It earned a reasonable 6.64/10 composite rating from Cannes-Ratings.org.

The description from IMDb:

After a devastating loss, witty and proudly troublesome Eleanor Morgenstein, 94, tells a tale that takes on a dangerous life of its own.

Here's a clip from the film via YouTube:

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As We Head Into June / Ken Burns' Next Big Thing / Maybe we Can Join The Serkis?

AS WE HEAD INTO JUNE

As I have mentioned, we're only a few days away from beginning a couple of summer traditions here at MTFB.  Starting Next week I'll begin running down each of the distributors that have been the most common players with films at Telluride.  I'll take a look at the films from each outfit that are the most probable TFF choices and try to assess each film's chances of actually going to TFF #52.

As a way of setting the table for that, here's a quick look at which distributors we're talking about.  First, a little methodology.  I looked at each year going back to 2015 to gather the info.  I did leave out the covid year cancelled TFF despite the fest having released a lineup because it was surely not complete at the time the decision was made to cancel that year.

That said, here are the eight distributors I'll be looking at over the next few weeks based on the number of films they have screened at Telluride since 2015:

Netflix: 34 (3.8/yr.)

Sony Pictures Classics (SPC): 31 (3.4/yr.)

Neon: 19 (2.1/yr.)

A24: 16 (1.8/yr.)

(Fox) Searchlight: 14 (1.6/yr.)

Amazon/MGM: 12 (1.3/yr.)

Focus Features: 10 (1.1/yr.)

Mubi: 5***

***I include Mubi on the list with its small number of five films because it's a late-comer to The SHOW having screened all 5 within the last four fests for an average of 1.25/yr.

Some interesting tidbits...

Obviously, Netflix has screened the most films since 2015 (its first appearance at TFF came that year) but SPC is only three behind and both distribs are the only outfits that have had films screen every year of this survey. 

Searchlight only missed one year in this time frame in 2016.

Three of these distributors only missed two years:

Neon in 2017and 2015.

A24 in 2024 and 2018.

Focus Features in 2019 and 2016.

Monday we'll start with Netflix and look at what films they have and what might play TFF #52.  Subsequently, we'll look at the other distributors each week in the order of which house has played the most at T-ride since 2015.

KEN BURNS' NEXT BIG THING

TFF Board of Governors member Ken Burns has begun promoting his next big project which is a documentary look at American Revolution as the nation begins to hit the 250 year milestones that will lead up to the nation's Semiquincentennial or Bisesquicentennial coming on July 4th, 2026.

The six part 12 hour series will air on PBS beginning on Nov. 16th.  Normally it would be a no-brainer to think that at least some portion of the series, if not all six parts, would play at TFF...but... as a part of the roll out for it they've already begun a nationwide tour which has/will include screenings of at least some of the doc.  Those began last march in Richmond, VA. and will continue through Oct. 9th in Washington D.C.  The press release says that additional dates are forthcoming.

One wonders if those presentations will dissuade TFF from screening any of it.  It is of note that there is a gap between a July 17th presentation in L.A. and sept. 20th presentation in Saratoga, NY.

Here's a link to its PBS landing page including a small clip from the doc.

And here's a link to the official press release.

All things considered, I still think it's likely that at least some segments will be screened at TFF #52.

MAYBE WE CAN JOIN THE SERKIS?

Animal Farm still via World of Reel

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reports that Andy Serkis' animated adaptation of George Orwell's classic Animal Farm will premiere at the Annecy International Animation Film Festival.  That fest is set to run June 8-14.

I have thought for awhile that this could be a TFF choice and its inclusion for Annecy is in no way a TFF disqualifier.  As a matter of fact I could see it playing along with Raoul Peck's Documentary about Orwell: Orwell: 2+2=5 which just screened at the Cannes fest last month as a kind of TFF double bill.

Just a thought.

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Ten Bets for TFF #51-Second Edition / Checking the Distributors: Focus Features /A New Source of T-ride Spec

TEN BETS FOR TFF #51-SECOND EDITION

Here's this week's Ten Bets for TFF #51:

1) Anora/Sean Baker

2) The Seed of the Scared Fig/Mohammad Rasoulof

3) Emilia Perez/Jacques Audiard

4) The Room Next Door/Pedro Almodovar

5) Bird/Andrea Arnold

6) Maria/Pablo Larrain

7) Nickel Boys/Ross

8) The End/Joshua Oppenheimer

9) Queer/Luca Guadagnino

10) Conclave/Edward Berger

Other possibilities:

We Live in Time/Crowley

I'm Still Here/Salles

Parthenope/Sorrentino

In the Hand of Dante/Schnabel

Hard Truths/Leigh

The Piano Lesson/Washington

Untitled Noah Baumbach

Blitz/McQueen

Megalopolis/Coppola

Napoleon (new restoration)/Gance

Leonardo DaVinci/Burns

A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things/Cousins

Oh, Canada/Schrader

The Actor/Johnson

CHECKING THE DISTRIBUTORS: FOCUS FEATURES

Today's look at frequent TFF distributors and what films they have with a chance at making the TFF #51 lineup turns to Focus Features.

Here is the moderately recent past of Focus at TFF:

2023- The Holdovers

2022- TAR, Armageddon Time

2021- Belfast, The Card Counter, Red Rocket

2020- The Way I See It

2019- No film

2018- Boy Erased
2017- Darkest Hour
2015- Suffragette
2012- Hyde Park on Hudson
2006- Catch a Fire

Focus' big player this fall is from All Quiet on the Western Front director Edward Berger.  Conclave stars Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow and Isabella Rossellini.

Its IMDb description:

"Cardinal Lawrence is tasked with leading one of the world's most secretive and ancient events, selecting a new Pope, where he finds himself at the center of a conspiracy that could shake the very foundation of The Church."

Also in Focus' basket is Robert Eggers Nosferatu set for release on Dec. 25th and Morgan Neville's Piece by Piece an animated documentary about Pharrell Williams set to be released Oct. 11th.

My assessment is that Conclave has a decent shot at a Venice/Telluride play.  Though unlikely, both Nosferatu and Piece by Piece can't be totally ruled out.  The chances:

Conclave 50%

Piece by Piece 20%

Nosferatu 15%.

 

A NEW SOURCE OF T-RIDE SPEC

I'm always looking for fresh insight into what might make the Telluride lineup and this week stumbled across Ezra Cubero's WordPress column about the fall fest season.  So, I took a look at what Cubero had predicted last year for Telluride in a post from June 22, 2023 and you know what, it was more than decent.  Cubero had predicted 16 films for TFF #50 and got nine right.  Not bad...not bad at all.  So, I thought it was worth my time, and maybe yours, to see what Cubero thinks for TFF #51.  And here's what that is:

Films that are flat out predicted to play TFF #51:

Anora

Bird

Hard Truths

Nickel Boys

The Piano Lesson

A Real Pain

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Above you' ll see that this week's Ten Bets includes Anora, Bird, Nickel Boys and The Seed of the Sacred Fig.  I also have Hard Truths and The Piano Lesson on the possibilities list.  I do not have A Real Pain on either list as it premiered at Sundance.

Then there are the films he refers to a "Maybes" for Telluride:

The Actor

All We Imagine as Light

The Apprentice

Conclave

A Different Man

Emilia Perez

The End

The Fire Inside

Maria

Memoir of a Snail

Queer

The Room Next Door

From the "Maybes" list I have Conclave, Emilia Perez, The End, Maria, Queer and The Room Next Door all as "Bets"...at least at the moment.

"Maybe" films that are also appearing in my "possibilities" list include The Actor.

As for the other "Maybes"...

All We Imagine as Light might have to go on my list of possibles.

The Apprentice, at least for now, seems dicey as a call for any festival.

A Different Man played Sundance.

The Fire Inside (Flint Strong)...I don't know how I feel about this one.  The change of release dates to an awards friendly Dec. 25th, the fact that its coming from Amazon/MGM and that the script is from Barry Jenkins (who is also listed as a producer) screams a Telluride screening but I had been told at one point, from what I feel is a reliable source, that it's not a "Telluride" film.  So...I dunno.

Memoir of a Snail...intriguing. from IFC Films and won the top prize at the Annecy Animation Fest.  Might have to move this to my list of possibles.

Cubero's complete list for 2024 Fall Fests (Venice, TIFF, NYFF in addition to Telluride) is here.

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One of Those Detective Stories / Venice and TIFF Announcements Looming / Ioncinema Looks at Toronto / World of Reel's Latest Venice List / The Playlist's Oscar List

ONE OF THOSE DETECTIVE STORIES

Every now and then I run across pieces of information that either enlighten me about what will play at TFF or , conversely, won't play at TFF.  Sometimes I get tidbits that tell me something but doesn't quite get all the way to a definitive conclusion.  That last circumstance happened at the end of this past week.

On Wednesday. last week, I got a message from a follower of MTFB that he'd seen an announcement from Focus Features that they were hosting a contest for a chance to get tickets to a Gala Presentation for one of their films on Saturday, Sept. 9th at Roy Thomson Hall.  If you really follow all of this Premiere status closely over these past few years, you're aware that Toronto has made clear that ONLY WORLD PREMIERES will play Roy Thomson on TIFF's opening weekend.

Then, couple of days later, I was reading Eric Lavallee's (Ioncinema) June 28 post entitled 2023 Toronto International Film Festival (Strictly) World Premiere Predictions!  As many of you know, a World Premiere at Toronto (except in extremely weird or confused instances) means a film will not play at Telluride).  Early in the piece Lavallee writes:

"My golden calf prognostication is Alexander Payne‘s The Holdovers. We are predicting that it’ll bypass Telluride and Venice and what is somewhat fitting is that the Focus Features property was actually picked up at TIFF last year in a private market screening for buyers."

Well, those sentences set me back.  I have had The Holdovers as #1 on this year's first Ten Bets. 

So, does this mean no Holdovers at Telluride?  

Maybe.  BUT... not necessarily.  The other big Focus title that's on everyone's radar has been Ethan Coen's Drive-Away Dolls.  That film is set for U.S. release on Sept. 22nd.  It's the only other Focus property that I can see that would fill the bill for a Gala Opening at TIFF on Sept. 9th.

Jordan Ruimy writing at World of Reel in a piece about Venice's announcement date wrote this:

"Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers” would be a great get for Venice, but Focus, which is handling the film, has a tight friendship with Toronto and might just skip the Lido. The same could potentially be said about Ethan Coen’s “Drive-Away Dolls,” which is also Focus."

That sounds to me like Ruimy might be looking at the same information I am.

The bottom line seems to be that, at a minimum, one of the two films will be playing at Roy Thomson/TIFF on Sept. 9th and consequently will not play TFF #50.  It could actually portend that neither film is In Telluride on Labor Day weekend.

My best guess is that The Holdovers still plays at TFF and that Drive-Away Dolls is what fills the bill in Toronto.  I just have a hard time believing that Alexander Payne, a member of the TFF Board of Directors (at least as of last year), a past TFF Guest Director and who has screened three of his films at the fest since 2011, won't be bringing his latest film to the 50th TFF celebration.

Saying the same thing this week in his "Halfway to Oscars 2024 Qualifying: 40 Films in the Mix" post for The Playlist, Gregory Ellwood wrote:

“The Holdovers“*

Alexander Payne and Paul Giamatti reunite for the sort of melancholy dramedy that put them both on the map. If it doesn’t have its world premiere at Telluride (Payne attends almost every year), we’ll be shocked."

So, I'll be anxiously watching Toronto announcements to see if this puzzle can be solved.  And speaking of announcements...

VENICE AND TOTONTO ANNOUNCEMENTS LOOMING

We have known for a bit that TIFF will announce a big chunk of their lineup on July 19th.  We found out over the last few days that, per Screen Daily , the Venice lineup announcement will be on July 25th.

Both announcement's can be instructive re: The SHOW.  Toronto's announcement's can, by virtue of their Premiere Status designation, can tell us whether a film will or won't play at Telluride.  It's not 100% accurate, but it's close.

Venice, on the other, doesn't actually eliminate any TFF possibility but doesn't confirm anything either.  It's lineup points to films that could still be in play for a Telluride berth.  The other piece of the Venice puzzle is to scour their screening schedule when it gets released.  As a general rule, if a film is scheduled for Venice during the first three days (four at the outside) it still has a decent chance of showing up in the San Juans.

So keep those factors in mind as we wait for the dominos to begin to fall over the next two-three weeks.

IONCINEMA LOOKS AT TORONTO

As mentioned above, Eric Lavallee at Ioncinema published a speculative list of films that he suggests could World Premiere at Toronto and thus not make the TFF #50th.  We've already dissected the claim that TIFF will World Premiere The Holdovers, but what other films are on Lavallee's list that I have been thinking might be prime contenders for  T-ride?  Here's a list culled from Lavallee's in the order presented in the post:

Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

Nightbitch/Heller

Foe/Davis

Saltburn/Fennell

Tuesday/Pusic

Freud's Last Session/Brown

The Royal Hotel/Green

The entire post is linked here.

WORLD OF REEL'S LATEST VENICE LIST

World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy has updated his list of Venice possibilities with the fest's announcement date news this week.  Here are films from his list that could do the Venice/Telluride two-step categorized as "Good Chance", "Maybe" and "Outside Shot"...at least in my current estimation:

GOOD CHANCE:

El Conde/Larrain

Poor Things/Lanthimos

Strangers/Haigh

MAYBE:

Priscilla/Coppola

The Royal Hotel/Green

Saltburn/Fennell

OUTSIDE SHOT:

Maestro/Cooper

The Captain/Garrone

Fingernails/Nikou

Drive-Away Dolls/Coen...but, you know, see above.

AND FINALLY...THE PLAYLIST'S OSCAR LIST

I mentioned above the comment from Gregory Ellwood's piece this week for The Playlist concerning The Holdovers and it's possibility for Telluride.  So, naturally, I ran down his list of 40 possible Best Picture contenders to evaluate it for TFF #50 players.  Ellwood has the films categorized as: Likely, Close, In the Mix, Curious and Need Convincing.  From each, the TFF possibles are:

LIKELY:

The Zone of Interest/Glazer

CLOSE:

Maestro/Cooper

IN THE MIX:

Anatomy of a Fall

May December

Saltburn

CURIOUS:

The Bikeriders

The Book of Clarence

The Boys in the Boat

Freud's Last Session

Foe

The Holdovers

Nightbitch

Nyad

Perfect Days

The Pot au Fou

Poor Things

Priscilla

Rustin

Strangers

NEED CONVINCING:

Challengers

As an added note, Ellwood has Scorsese's Killer of the Flower Moon as "Likely" and Fincher's The Killer as "Need Convincing".

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Checking the Distributors: Focus Features / Guest Directing for the 50th / It Was Party Time Last Week / Toronto Tease

CHECKING THE DISTRIBUTORS: FOCUS FEATURES

I'm continuing the assessment of various distribution companies and their past TFF profiles as a method of  trying to predict the films that will be selected for inclusion to TFF #50.  Today's specimen is Focus Features.

Focus has had a robust presence at The SHOW for the last few years:

2022- TAR, Armageddon Time

2021- Belfast, The Card Counter, Red Rocket

2020- The Way I See It

2019- Waves

2018- Boy Erased
2017- Darkest Hour
2015- Suffragette
2012- Hyde Park on Hudson
2006- Catch a Fire

As you can see, Focus has been more present at Telluride the last couple of years and has had one TFF selection every year since 2017.  Focus has also had three of its films from TFF nominated for Best Picture: TAR, Belfast and Darkest Hour over the past six years.

So as we contemplate their 2023 we land on two films.  One seems to me to be a no-brainer for inclusion at Telluride and the other has a chance.

The no-brainer is Alexander Payne's The Holdovers starring Payne's old Sideways pal Paul Giamatti.  Payne has huge connections to Telluride after having served as Guest Director in 2009 as well as serving on the fest's Board of Governors.  In addition, he has screened The Descendants (2011), Nebraska (2013) and Downsizing (2017) at TFF. 

As a matter of fact, if you saw last Thursday's post of 2023's first "Ten Bets" you'll have seen that I have The Holdovers as the #1 "bet".

The other Focus film that's in the mix is Ethan Coen's first solo directing effort since he and brother Joel decided to split...at least for the time being.  The film is Drive Away Dolls which IMDb Pro says went into post-production in May.  I'm much less confident that Drive Away is at TFF.  Yes, Coen was part of a three-way Tribute at TFF #40 in 2013 with his brother and T. Bone Burnett and Inside Llewyn Davis was screened. But since then both Hail, Caesar! (2016) and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (2018) have come and gone without making a stop at TFF.  It remains the only Coen Brothers film to have played at Telluride.

Hail, Caesar! played the Berlin, Glasgow and Belgrade Film Fests after its Feb. 5th premiere and was distributed by Universal.  Buster Scruggs played Venice, New York, BFI London and AFI among others prior to its release on Nov. 16th and was from Netflix.

Coen also directed the doc Jerry Lee Lewis; Trouble In Mind which screened at Cannes in 2022 and seems to be under A24's umbrella but has yet to be released in the United States.

All of which is to say that history points to the unlikelihood that Drive Away drives into the San Juans on August 31st.

That said, Ioncinema's Eric Lavallee writing about the film on April 17th said Telluride was in the mix for the film:

"It’s called Drive-Away Dolls. It’s dropping on September 22nd. Telluride, Venice Film Festival and TIFF programmers have their tasers pointed." 

Other outlets such as Gold Derby, SlashFilm and The Playlist  have at least mentioned the possibility so I can't dismiss it completely.

All of the other Focus films for 2023 have already screened at a domestic film fest-Every Body, A Thousand and One, or have been released-Asteroid City or seem unlikely-My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 set for U.S. release on Sept. 8th.

So for now...chances for Telluride:

The Holdovers 80%

Drive Away Dolls 25%

Serendipitously, as I was writing this portion of the post for today Focus dropped a poster and a trailer for  Drive Away Dolls:

And here's the trailer via YouTube:

Interestingly, Roger Freidman at ShowBiz411.com wrote on Friday:

“Drive Away Dolls” premieres September 22nd, so look for it to be front and center at the Telluride and Toronto film fests."

I don't know what he knows but that sounds promising.

GUEST DIRECTING FOR THE 50TH

10 years ago, we had gotten down to August 5th and no guest director had yet been named for TFF #40.  In my post that day I had a segment on that mystery in which, among other things, I suggested:

"Have 6 of them...I'll bet you have at least 6 past Guest Directors in attendance.  Have each of them select one film from the list they originally programmed.   Or cross-pollinate them...have an Alexander Payne program one film from Errol Morris' original list."

I even had a list of possible choices for the "half dozen" concept:

"I have to believe that Morris, Tavernier, Sellars, Rushdie, Payne and maybe Bogdanovich, Henry and Boorman will be in town."

Then, when we did find out what TFF had done it WAS six guest directors who had been past Guest Directors: Don DeLillo, Buck Henry, Phillip Lopate, Michael Ondaatje, B. Ruby Rich and Salman Rushdie.

So I had gotten the notion right and two of the six directors.  

Honestly, I just sort of blindly stumbled onto what eventually happened. 

But, with that in mind, could the fest do something similar for the 50th?

Of that list of six from 2013, all but Buck Henry are still living.  Bring all five back?  Or a brand new set of six.  Or a mix of some from the 40th and other past guest directors.

OR---other thoughts...

*A Guest director from each of the decades since the position was established in 1988.

*Some really BIG NAMES...from entertainment or politics.  I suggested this also back in 2013.  Maybe names like Obama, Jagger, McCartney?

*Some really BIG NAMES from directing: Scorsese, Spielberg?

*Some TFF regulars who have never Guest Directed: Ken Burns and Werner Herzog unbelievably have never Guest Directed.

I'm very excited to find out what the fest's plans are in this regard.

IT WAS PARTY TIME LAST WEEK

Telluride annually has hosted a party during the summer months in Los Angeles.  That happened last Tuesday as was evidenced by a couple of attendees posting pics of their invites on social media.

Deadline's Pete Hammond was there and as he has done in the past, wrote a bit about the evening last Friday.  In the post, Hammond makes a claim that I have always thought was likely true:

"The annual June kickoff event in Los Angeles was packed, and as one awards pundit told me, “I always love this party because you can totally get clues as to what movies are going to Telluride just by seeing which studios show up here.”

Hammond then goes on to list at least some of the outfits that were there:

"...there were reps out in force from the likes of Searchlight, Focus Features, Roadside Attractions, Sony Pictures Classics, Netflix, Amazon Studios, and many more, so take your guesses."

If you've been reading this space the last few weeks you'll see a number of distributors on Pete's list that I have already profiled  with an analysis of what films that might be bringing to TFF #50: 

Focus Features today, Searchlight on June 19th, SPC on June 9th, Netflix on June 5th.  I have Amazon teed up for Thursday's post but the Roadside Attractions mention is a little puzzling.  For the life of me I can't find a title under the Roadside banner that feels like a TFF candidate.

The film they have that seems the most likely is Bill Pohlad's Dreamin' Wild but it is currently set for release a month before the festival.  Sooooo...I'm flummoxed.

TORONTO TEASE

Reportedly the Toronto International Film Festival will announce some information about their fest on Wednesday.  Likely it will be an announcement of their opening night film and/or some splashy World Premiere..  Last year at this time TIFF announced that Rian Johnson's Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery would World Premiere there.

What will we hear from them on Wednesday?  Maybe The Color Purple?  Maestro?  The Killer? Or, perhaps the North American Premiere of Killers of the Flower Moon?  That last, I think, is still much more likely to show up at the New York Film Fest which opens a week before Flower Moon's announced limited release date of Oct. 6th.

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Focus on Focus / 40 Possible Oscar Films For 2022 and Telluride / From World of Real / Marcel Behind the Scenes / Trailer for Ticket to Paradise

 FOCUS ON FOCUS

My review of distributors with a recent significant Telluride history and what they may have to offer for TFF #49 continues today with Focus Features.  Focus has had a more-or-less consistent presence at the fest over the past few years:

2021 Belfast, The Card Counter, Red Rocket

2020- The Way I See It

2019 Waves

2018- Boy Erased
2017- Darkest Hour
2015- Suffragette
2012- Hyde Park on Hudson
2006- Catch a Fire

As you can see, Focus has been a solid entrant at T-ride particularly from 2015 forward and had large presence last year with three films that were featured as a part of The SHOW.

For 2022, Focus has three films that seem like they might be under consideration:

Todd Fields TAR with Cate Blanchett (a Blanchett tribute please?)

James Gray's Armageddon Time with Jessica Chastain (a Chastain tribute please?), Anne Hathaway and Anthony Hopkins (maybe Hopkins could get the Tribute that probably would have happened in 2020 with The Father)

Michael Showalter's Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies with Sally Field and Jim Parson (a Field tribute please?)

Bill Pohlad's Dreamin' Wild.  Pohad has an extensive history with TFF.

I have these films listed in the order from top to bottom that I feel like are most likely to make the TFF #49 list.

TAR 40% chance

Armageddon Time 35%

Spoiler Alert 25%

Dreamin' Wild 20%

40 POSSIBLE OSCAR FILMS FOR 2022 AND TELLURIDE

Tim Gray writing for Variety posted an Oscar speculation piece for Variety.  Gray breaks the categorization down into early fest contenders (Berlin, Sundance and Cannes) and from those the films that I could see as Telluride potentials would be: 

Armageddon Time 

One Fine Morning

Triangle of Sadness

 Then Gray switches to organizing by the month that the film will be released...so looking at September onward, other potentials would be:

Blonde

See How They Run ( a Searchlight film that I didn't include on my assessment of their slate a few days ago-but-you never know.  Sam Rockwell and Saoirse Ronan star and that's an attention-getting duo)

The Banshees of Inisherin

Till

Amsterdam

Bones and All

The Menu

Golda

My Policeman

She Said

Babylon

Women Talking

And finally, Gray has a category of undated films from which possible TFF players include:

Bardo

Empire of Light

The Good Nurse

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

The Lost King

The Pale Blue Eye

Shirley

The Son

White Noise

The Whale 

The Wonder

The complete listing is here.

FROM WORLD OF REEL

Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel continues to be a go to place for Telluride and Telluride-adjacent news.  Since my last post on Thursday Jordan has added a couple of items of interest.  First, there's a new list from him of "Not Going to TFF/film fests".  Included on the list is Damien Chazelle's Babylon which Ruimy reports has been pursued fervently by The SHOW.  Jordan writes:

"I know for a fact that Telluride is trying VERY HARD to get Chazelle’s film. Paramount hasn’t budged just yet, it’s still set to skip the fall festivals"

Earlier in the piece Jordan characterizes Babylon's status as "possibly" skipping the fall fests so it seems unlikely but not entirely 100% off the table.

See the story and complete list of films skipping fests at this link to WOR.

The other note from Jordan is a semi-report about She Said.  That's the Maria Schrader film about the takedown of Harvey Weinstein.  The film has been test screened and Ruimy writes:

 “She Said” test-screened in the east coast last week. I’m not allowed to post the reaction I got from it, but it’s a very positive one."

The film has been flirting with my Ten Bets list during June.

Ruimy's complete post on She Said is here.

MARCEL BEHIND THE SCENES

A24 debuted a behind the scenes video concerning the animation of TFF #48 breakout hot (in select theaters now!) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On.  I'm a fan.

Here's the video from YouTube:

TRAILER FOR TICKET TO PARADISE

Do I think Ticket to Paradise will play TFF #49...nope.  Could it?  Maybe.  Does it have a trailer?  It does now.  From YouTube:

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MTFB Oscar Take: Facing the Music and Other Categories / Focus Features Chief Says Oscar Surprise Will Happen

 MTFB OSCAR TAKE: FACING THE MUSIC AND OTHER CATEGORIES

Here's your latest update of feature Oscar winners in the categories of Score, Song, Costume, Visual Effects, Sound and Makeup/Hair.  The last predictions for these categories was posted on Mar. 14th.  As always, TFF #48 films are Bold.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) Encanto

4) Don't Look Up

5) Parallel Mothers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) No Time to Die/No Time to Die

2) Dos Oruguitas/Encanto

3) Be Alive/King Richard

4) Down to Joy/Belfast

5) Somehow You Do/Four Good Days

BEST COSTUMES

1) Cruella

2) Dune

3) Nightmare Alley

4) West Side Story

5) Cyrano

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune

2) Spiderman: No Way Home

3) No Time to Die

4) Shang Chi

5) Free Guy

BEST SOUND

1) Dune

2) No Time to Die

3) West Side Story

4) The Power of the Dog

5) Belfast

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Eyes of Tammy Faye

2) Cruella

3) Dune

4) Coming 2 America

5) House of Gucci

Final Oscar predictions for MTFB Oscar Takes will appear on Sunday and will include predictions in all 23 categories.

As I post this on Thursday morning TFF #48 films look good for Oscar wins in Best Direction/Jane Campion-The Power of the Dog and Best Actor/Will Smith-King Richard.  In the "possible" category are Belfast for Best Picture and Original Screenplay; The Power of the Dog for Best Picture,  Adapted Screenplay, Original Score and Cinematography and King Richard for Best Editing.

FOCUS FEATURES CHIEF SAYS OSCAR SURPIRSE WILL HAPPEN 

Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter has an interview with Focus Features head Peter Kujawski who insists the Oscar race could still see its film's name, Kenneth Branagh's Belfast, on the card that is pulled from the Best Picture envelope on Sunday night.

Kujawski is quoted as saying: “There is gonna be a real surprise.”

Kujawski thinks the preferential ballot will work in Belfast's favor.

See the complete article from THR here.

 

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Ten Bets #2 / Update from Telluride / Focus Does a Do-Si-Do / The Distribs: Lionsgate and Roadside Attractions

TEN BETS #2

Here's an update on my latest guesses about what films might screen as a part of gthe 47th Telluride Film Festival.  First, a reminder of the this year's first Ten Bets list from June 29th:

10) Ammonite
9) Undine
8) The Secrets We Keep
7) Forgotten We'll Be
6) Untitled Garbus/Cortes Voting Rights Doc
5) Fireball
4) Nomadland
3) John Prine: Hello in There
2) Small Axe (Mangrove and/or Lover's Rock)
1) There Is No Evil


And the current Ten Bets:

10) Undine
9) Forgotten We'll Be
8) The Secrets We Keep
7) Notturno
6) Small Axe (Mangrove and/or Lover's Rock)
5) John Prine: Hello In There
4) Fireball
3) Nomadland
2) There Is No Evil
1) Ammonite

I still feel that the Untitled Garbus/Cortes Voting Rights Documentary is also a good bet for TFF #47.


UPDATE FROM TELLURIDE

Since my last post on Friday more information has come to light from Telluride.  Last week I had included a good deal of information from an Indiewire story that, among other items, suggested that Telluride's Town Council would meet and likely make some TFF related decisions on July 15th.  That appears to be incorrect.  The Parks Committee does have a meeting scheduled in Telluride on July 15th but the Town Council does not meet until July 21st.

According to sources in Telluride the agenda for that meeting has not been posted.

Meanwhile, Suzanne Cheavans writing in The Telluride Daily Planet reported on a San Miguel County Commissioners meeting from last week at which there was some discussion of TFF.  Her reporting has a couple of very interesting pieces of information including the revelation that school buildings in Telluride will not be available for the fest to use. That article is linked here.


FOCUS DOES A DO-SI-DO

Focus Features has sifted its lineup.  The distribution company announced that they have moved Let Him Go starring Kevin Costner and Diane Lane from Aug. 21st to Nov. 6th and that consequently that will displace Stillwater which had originally been scheduled on Nov. 6th.  No new date was announced for Stillwater which stars Matt Damon and Abigail Breslin.

Back on June 25th I assessed the Focus lineup for Telluride possibilities and had put Stillwater's chances at 50%.  At that time I didn't evaluate the chances for Let Him Go because of its pre-TFF release date.

The move reduces Stillwater's chances of being in the TFF #47 lineup in my estimation.  It goes from my original guestimate of 50% down to 20%.  Meanwhile, Let Him Go gets rated at a 25% chance of making the Telluride lineup.

As a side note, Focus Features did a survey of past TFF journalist attendees a month ago that centered on getting a feel for probable attendees for this year.

Here's more info from Deadline.


THE DISTRIBS: LIONSGATE/ROADSIDE ATTRACTIONS

Lionsgate and affiliated film company Roadside Attractions have a solid appearance history with the Telluride Film Festival.

Lionsgate at Telluride:

2017: Hostiles
2016: La La Land
2013: All Is Lost

Roadside Attractions was repped at T-ride as follows over the past few years:

2019: Judy
2018: Trial by Fire
2016: Manchester by the Sea
2014: '71, Mommy, The Homesman
2013: All is Lost, Gloria
2012: Stories We Tell
2011: Albert Nobbs
2010: Biutiful

Between the two affiliated companies they average about 1.2 films per year at TFF.

This year Lionsgate's best shot is Fatale starring two time Oscar winner and past TFF Tribute recipient Hilary Swank (TFF #41 in 2014).  Swank stars as the fatale of the title.  The film was originally scheduled for release in June but is now dated for Oct. 30th.  Doug Liman's Chaos Walking (with Charlie Kaufman credited as one of the writers of the screenplay) might be an outside possibility.  It's currently scheduled for release in January 2021.

Roadside Attractions only shot appears to be The Glorias from Julie Taymor.  The film looks at the life of feminist icon Gloria Steinem and stars Julianne Moore and Alicia Vikander.  The film played Sundance, however, and as a result is highly unlikely for Telluride...although...as weird as this year is...never say never.

Chances:

Fatele 30%
Chaos Walking 20%
The Glorias 15%

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