Ten Bets #5 for TFF #51 / Conclave Reportedly to TFF and First Looks / Anora Has A Trailer / Almodovar's The Room Next Door Set for Venice

TEN BETS #5 FOR TFF #51

Some movement this week primarily around the news about Edward Berger's Conclave (see below).  Here's this week's updated Ten bets for TFF.  Next week we should know more with added information from Toronto and Venice.

1) Anora/Baker

2) Conclave/Berger

3) Emilia Perez/Jacques Audiard

4) The Room Next Door/Pedro Almodovar

5) The Seed of the Scared Fig/Mohammad Rasoulof

6) A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things/Cousins

7) Nickel Boys/Ross

8) Maria/Pablo Larrain

9) Queer/Luca Guadagnino

10) Bird/Arnold

Other possibilities:

The End/Oppenheimer

I'm Still Here/Salles

Parthenope/Sorrentino

In the Hand of Dante/Schnabel

Hard Truths/Leigh

The Piano Lesson/Washington

Untitled Noah Baumbach

Megalopolis/Coppola

Napoleon (new restoration)/Gance

Leonardo DaVinci/Burns

Oh, Canada/Schrader

The Actor/Johnson

SNL 1975

All We Imagine as Light

Memoir of a Snail

CONCLAVE REPORTEDLY TO TFF AND FIRST LOOKS

Jordan Ruimy writing at World of Reel reported Monday that Edward Berger's Conclave will screen at Telluride.

Here's the key line from that WOR item:

"Now, I’m hearing that “Conclave” is going to premiere at the Telluride Film Festival during the first week of September. No word yet on whether it’s a world premiere given that Venice could still be an option."

MTFB has had Conclave on each of the weekly Ten Bets lists from the initial list.

With Ruimy's reporting and Indiewire's Anne Thompson reporting that Sean Baker's Anora will also play Telluride (reported here last week).

Meanwhile, Vanity Fair has released the first images of  Conclave.  Here's a couple of those:

ANORA HAS A TRAILER

Speaking of Anora, NEON dropped a first trailer this week for the Palme d'Or winning film.  Here that is from YouTube.  Fair warning, it's billed as a "Red Band" trailer.

ALMODOVAR'S THE ROOM NEXT DOOR SET FOR VENICE

Variety reported on Tuesday that Pedro Almodovar's The Room Next Door will screen at the Venice Film Fest.  Of course that doesn't preclude a TFF North American Premiere.  We'll see where it gets scheduled for Venice when they announce that.  If it's set to screen the first couple of days there, that would be an indicator that it could head to Telluride.

The Variety story has tells us that Mike Leigh's Hard truths is not screening at Venice.  That the film wasn't selected for either Cannes or Venice is a little concerning.

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Ten Bets #4 for TFF #51 / Bits and Pieces / Another One Bites the Dust

TEN BETS #4 FOR TFF #51

There is a bit of movement in the Ten Bets this week.  One move is the result of Mark Cousin's winning the Crystal Globe, the top prize at the Karlovy Vary International Film Festival, last week.  Relatedly, I re-read the Indiewire article about that and discovered this line from its author, Anne Thompson:

"Word is, Sean Baker’s Palme d’Or winner “Anora” (Neon) may play exclusively at Telluride, which does not announce its slate in advance..."

 

Anne Thompson is an impeccable source so that tidbit is enough for me to move Anora up even more on the Ten Bets list.

Here's this week's Ten Bets for TFF #51:

1) Anora/Baker

2) Emilia Perez/Jacques Audiard

3) The Room Next Door/Pedro Almodovar

4) The Seed of the Scared Fig/Mohammad Rasoulof

5) Nickel Boys/Ross

6) A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things/Cousins

7) Maria/Pablo Larrain

8) Conclave/Berger

9) Queer/Luca Guadagnino

10) Bird/Arnold

Other possibilities:

The End/Oppenheimer

I'm Still Here/Salles

Parthenope/Sorrentino

In the Hand of Dante/Schnabel

Hard Truths/Leigh

The Piano Lesson/Washington

Untitled Noah Baumbach

Megalopolis/Coppola

Napoleon (new restoration)/Gance

Leonardo DaVinci/Burns

Oh, Canada/Schrader

The Actor/Johnson

SNL 1975

All We Imagine as Light

Memoir of a Snail

ODDS AND ENDS

I've spent some time looking at the most common distributors who screen films at TFF.  To date that has included these distribs and their most likely films to be possible for Telluride:

A24: Parthenope, Babygirl, On Becoming a Guinea Fowl

NEON: Anora, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The End, The Actor

Searchlight: Solitary

Sony Pictures Classics: The Room Next Door, I'm Still Here, Marcel Pagnol

Focus Features: Conclave, Piece by Piece, Nosferatu

Netflix: Emilia Perez, The Piano Lesson, Untitled Noah Baumbach

Amazon/MGM: Nickel Boys, Hedda, Long Days' Journey Into Night, Unstoppable

Over the last five fests these seven distributors have been behind a number of films that have played each year.  Here's the total number of films from all seven combined from those years (leaving out the incomplete list from the Covid canceled 2020 fest):

2023: 19

2022: 17

2021: 16

2019: 16

2018: 15

So, you can see that if recent history is a guide, anywhere between 15-20 TFF #51 titles are from these peeps.

BUT...there are also distributors that are hit and miss with Telluride but with enough history to at least take a quick glance at what they might bring to The SHOW.  That group includes:

Cohen Media Group, Janus Films, Mubi, Apple, IFC Films, Magnolia, Kino Lorber and Bleecker Street.  Among those outfits, here's what I think might have a shot to be a TFF #51 selection:

Cohen Media Group: Black Tea

Janus Films: All We Imagine as Light, Caught by the Tides

Mubi: Bird, Grand Tour, Dahomey, The Substance, The Girl with the Needle

IFC Films: Memoir of a Snail

Magnolia: Ernest Cole: Lost and Found

Bleecker Street: Hard Truths, Rumours, The Return, The Wedding Banquet

I don't think we're likely to see anything from Apple (since Blitz is World Premiering in London) or Kino Lorber this year.

ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST

On Tuesday the Toronto International Film Festival announced five more films that will World Premiere there.  Among them was John Crowley's We Live in Time which I had been listing as a TFF #51 possibility for some time.  The WP designation means that the film will not be making a stop in southwest Colorado over Labor Day weekend.

Other films announced by TIFF on Tuesday were Eden, Superboys of Malegaon, K-Pops and Shepherds.

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Ten Bets for TFF #51-Third Edition / Blitz Goes to London / Trailer and Poster for Napoleon Restoration

TEN BETS FOR TFF #51-THIRD EDITION

Happy Independence Day to everyone!

Here's 2024's third installment of MTFB's "Ten Bets" for the Telluride Film Festival.  The big move this week is that Steve McQueen's Blitz comes off the possibilities list (see the story below).  Additionally Emilia Perez and The Room Next Door move up a couple of spots while Anora and The Seed of the Sacre Fig each drop a couple of spots. Nickel Boys moves up to #5.

Here's this week's Ten Bets for TFF #51:

1) Emilia Perez/Jacques Audiard

2) The Room Next Door/Pedro Almodovar

3) Anora/Sean Baker

4) The Seed of the Scared Fig/Mohammad Rasoulof

5) Nickel Boys/Ross

6) Bird/Andrea Arnold

7) Maria/Pablo Larrain

8) The End/Joshua Oppenheimer

9) Queer/Luca Guadagnino

10) Conclave/Edward Berger

Other possibilities:

We Live in Time/Crowley

I'm Still Here/Salles

Parthenope/Sorrentino

In the Hand of Dante/Schnabel

Hard Truths/Leigh

The Piano Lesson/Washington

Untitled Noah Baumbach

Megalopolis/Coppola

Napoleon (new restoration)/Gance

Leonardo DaVinci/Burns

A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things/Cousins

Oh, Canada/Schrader

The Actor/Johnson

SNL 1975

BLITZ GOES TO LONDON

(Saorise Ronan in Blitz via Apple)

Apple+ and the BFI London Film Festival announced on Monday that Steve McQueen's Blitz will World Premiere as the Opening Night Film. Assuming that the premiere designation is accurate that means that the film will not play Telluride nor Venice and Toronto.

I had written here on the blog on May 30th that:

"I'd reallllly...love for Blitz to get to TFF and McQueen has a solid past with the fest, but...given the story is about the blitz of London by the Nazis in WWII, I can see McQueen wanting to hold the World Premiere as a part of the London Film Fest in October."

Looks like I was spot on.

Now, Ioncinema posted this on X Monday:

"BLITZ could still premiere in Telluride ... but chances are indeed low." and "Telluride has "grabbed" world premiere status titles away from other fests before. It's unlikely, but could happen."

And that's true as far as it goes but since Toronto started announcing what they call "honest" premiere designations, the occurrence of a film being designated as a World Premiere somewhere else but still playing at T-ride has become almost non-existent.

Here are the details from The Hollywood Reporter.

TRAILER AND POSTER FOR NAPOLEON RESTORATION

Ever since Cannes screened the newly renovated version of Abel Gance's Napoleon I have thought there was a real chance that the film (now nearly seven hours long!) could be a part of the TFF #51 lineup.  Now we have a new poster as well as a new trailer for the film.  You can see the poster above and here's the trailer from YouTube: 

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Ten Bets for TFF #51-Second Edition / Checking the Distributors: Focus Features /A New Source of T-ride Spec

TEN BETS FOR TFF #51-SECOND EDITION

Here's this week's Ten Bets for TFF #51:

1) Anora/Sean Baker

2) The Seed of the Scared Fig/Mohammad Rasoulof

3) Emilia Perez/Jacques Audiard

4) The Room Next Door/Pedro Almodovar

5) Bird/Andrea Arnold

6) Maria/Pablo Larrain

7) Nickel Boys/Ross

8) The End/Joshua Oppenheimer

9) Queer/Luca Guadagnino

10) Conclave/Edward Berger

Other possibilities:

We Live in Time/Crowley

I'm Still Here/Salles

Parthenope/Sorrentino

In the Hand of Dante/Schnabel

Hard Truths/Leigh

The Piano Lesson/Washington

Untitled Noah Baumbach

Blitz/McQueen

Megalopolis/Coppola

Napoleon (new restoration)/Gance

Leonardo DaVinci/Burns

A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things/Cousins

Oh, Canada/Schrader

The Actor/Johnson

CHECKING THE DISTRIBUTORS: FOCUS FEATURES

Today's look at frequent TFF distributors and what films they have with a chance at making the TFF #51 lineup turns to Focus Features.

Here is the moderately recent past of Focus at TFF:

2023- The Holdovers

2022- TAR, Armageddon Time

2021- Belfast, The Card Counter, Red Rocket

2020- The Way I See It

2019- No film

2018- Boy Erased
2017- Darkest Hour
2015- Suffragette
2012- Hyde Park on Hudson
2006- Catch a Fire

Focus' big player this fall is from All Quiet on the Western Front director Edward Berger.  Conclave stars Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow and Isabella Rossellini.

Its IMDb description:

"Cardinal Lawrence is tasked with leading one of the world's most secretive and ancient events, selecting a new Pope, where he finds himself at the center of a conspiracy that could shake the very foundation of The Church."

Also in Focus' basket is Robert Eggers Nosferatu set for release on Dec. 25th and Morgan Neville's Piece by Piece an animated documentary about Pharrell Williams set to be released Oct. 11th.

My assessment is that Conclave has a decent shot at a Venice/Telluride play.  Though unlikely, both Nosferatu and Piece by Piece can't be totally ruled out.  The chances:

Conclave 50%

Piece by Piece 20%

Nosferatu 15%.

 

A NEW SOURCE OF T-RIDE SPEC

I'm always looking for fresh insight into what might make the Telluride lineup and this week stumbled across Ezra Cubero's WordPress column about the fall fest season.  So, I took a look at what Cubero had predicted last year for Telluride in a post from June 22, 2023 and you know what, it was more than decent.  Cubero had predicted 16 films for TFF #50 and got nine right.  Not bad...not bad at all.  So, I thought it was worth my time, and maybe yours, to see what Cubero thinks for TFF #51.  And here's what that is:

Films that are flat out predicted to play TFF #51:

Anora

Bird

Hard Truths

Nickel Boys

The Piano Lesson

A Real Pain

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Above you' ll see that this week's Ten Bets includes Anora, Bird, Nickel Boys and The Seed of the Sacred Fig.  I also have Hard Truths and The Piano Lesson on the possibilities list.  I do not have A Real Pain on either list as it premiered at Sundance.

Then there are the films he refers to a "Maybes" for Telluride:

The Actor

All We Imagine as Light

The Apprentice

Conclave

A Different Man

Emilia Perez

The End

The Fire Inside

Maria

Memoir of a Snail

Queer

The Room Next Door

From the "Maybes" list I have Conclave, Emilia Perez, The End, Maria, Queer and The Room Next Door all as "Bets"...at least at the moment.

"Maybe" films that are also appearing in my "possibilities" list include The Actor.

As for the other "Maybes"...

All We Imagine as Light might have to go on my list of possibles.

The Apprentice, at least for now, seems dicey as a call for any festival.

A Different Man played Sundance.

The Fire Inside (Flint Strong)...I don't know how I feel about this one.  The change of release dates to an awards friendly Dec. 25th, the fact that its coming from Amazon/MGM and that the script is from Barry Jenkins (who is also listed as a producer) screams a Telluride screening but I had been told at one point, from what I feel is a reliable source, that it's not a "Telluride" film.  So...I dunno.

Memoir of a Snail...intriguing. from IFC Films and won the top prize at the Annecy Animation Fest.  Might have to move this to my list of possibles.

Cubero's complete list for 2024 Fall Fests (Venice, TIFF, NYFF in addition to Telluride) is here.

FOR THOSE INTERESTED...

MTFB is featured at awards Daily this week.

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Steve McQueen's Blitz-Off the Table? / Screen Daily and the Venice Lineup / Bikeriders Riding Into Theaters Next Week

STEVE MC QUEEN'S BLITZ-OFF THE TABLE?

I wrote in the MTFB May 30th post:

"I'd reallllly...love for Blitz to get to TFF and McQueen has a solid past with the fest, but...given the story is about the blitz of London by the Nazis in WWII, I can see McQueen wanting to hold the World Premiere as a part of the London Film Fest in October."

Now, we're hearing that Blitz may not be in play for TFF or Venice adding some credence to the possibility of my theory.

Jordan Ruimy writing for his website Word of Reel has been following this Blitz situation this past week posting on June 10th an article headlined: Where Is Steve McQueen's Blitz?

Then yesterday Ruimy had more to say in an article titled: Blitz Not Submitted to Venice or Telluride.  In that piece Ruimy writes:

"...until I hear anything different, it looks like “Blitz” might not premiere on the Lido. Same with Telluride, which is said to still be in hot pursuit of the film."

A couple of takeaways here.  First, if Ruimy is correct then Blitz is seemingly off the TFF table.  BUT...that last sentence suggests that T-ride is still on the hunt to land the film.

Here's where I am.  Unless we find out more between now and next Thursday when my first "Ten Bets" for Telluride will be posted, Blitz will not be on that list.  But, I'm keeping the door open the slimmest of cracks on the basis that Ruimy's correct and the fest is still trying to get it.

SCREEN DAILY'S VENICE SPECULATION

Screen Daily posted their speculative piece about the films that could be at The Venice Film Festival on Monday.

I've been through the article trying to pick out films that might make their initial bow in Italy and then do the quick turnaround to come to Colorado.  From their list, here are the films that I think have the best shot at that (in the order they appear on the article):

Luca Guadagnino's Queer

Pablo Larrain's Maria

Edward Berger's Conclave

Julian Schnabel's In the Hand of Dante

Walter Salles' I'm Still Here

Mike Leigh's Hard Truths

Joshua Oppenheimer's The End

Malcolm Washington's The Piano Lesson

As a side note, Screen Daily included Steve McQueen's Blitz as a Venice possibility but see the above story.

BIKERIDERS RIDING INTO THEATERS NEXT WEEK

I've made no secret of the fact that I really enjoyed Jeff Nichols' The Bikeriders last year at TFF #50 but, admittedly, that feeling wasn't universal.  In my polls post-fest, my group of industry pros ended with it ranked 9th of the 12 films that had enough eyeballs on it. The People's Telluride poll had it at 10th of 16 and the Composite poll landed it at #8 out the 10 films that met the criteria for making that field.  

It seems, however that critics have embraced it a bit better.  Metacritic has it it with a respectable 73 and its Rotten Tomatoes score is a better than respectable 84.

At any rate, the film opens next week in theaters and consequently we're seeing a lot of P.R. about it ahead of that.  Here's a taste:

Director Jeff Nichols with The Hollywood Reporter.

Austin Butler via TheBikeriders X account.

Austin Butler and Jodie Comer from IGN.

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More Venice Musings / Sundance Theory

MORE MUSINGS ON VENICE

We're still several weeks away from any announcement concerning the films which will be chosen for this year's Venice Film Festival but already there's some serious speculation about what those may be.

In my last post I started to look at that with an overview of World of Reel's first stab at figuring out the Venice lineup.  Today I look at a Variety article by Nick Vivarelli that was posted last Thursday.  among the films Vivarelli predicts there are five that feel like possibilities for TFF #51:

Maria/Pablo Larrain

Queer/Luca Guadagnino

In the Hands of Dante/Julian Schnabel

Hard Truths/Mike Leigh

I'm Still Here/Walter Salles

All five of these directors have had at least one film make a Telluride lineup in the past.  These five films also were included on the WOR list I posted last Thursday.

See the complete article from Variety here.

SUNDANCE THEORY

Seems like I do one of these every year now.  This is the post where I suggest that there might be a Sundance feature film that cracks the TFF lineup.  

Telluride history and commentary suggest that TFF has a standard that films that play Labor Day weekend must be either a World or North American premiere.  But there have been exceptions:

An Education in 2009

Manchester by the Sea in 2016

The Report in 2019

The Father (would have screened had TFF happened) in 2020

Living in 2022

There are others.

In some of these cases a TFF Tribute was involved:  Casey Affleck in 2016, Adam Driver in 2019 and Anthony Hopkins would have been a Tribute recipient in 2020.

Last year I was all over A Little Prayer doing the Sundance/Telluride thing.  As you know that didn't happen.  BUT...I have a candidate for this happening again in 2024!

Readers...I give you Nora Fingscheidt's The Outrun starring Saorise Ronan.

Here's the case.  Ronan was rumored to have been set to get a Tribute in 2017 with Lady Bird's screening put that purportedly fell through.  I have often thought that Telluride would look for a way to make a Ronan tribute happen.  This could be that opportunity especially if the fest invites Blitz, which also features Ronan.  Perhaps Ronan would pull double duty as Driver did in 2019 with both The Report and Marriage Story making the TFF #46 lineup.

How confident am I about this...not that much but, like I said, it's happened before.

For hoots, here's the trailer for The Outrun:

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