MTFB Oscar Predictions: Screenplays #2 / Critic's Choice Awards and Documentaries

 MTFB OSCAR PREDICTIONS: SCREENPLAYS #2

Today I am concluding my second wave of Oscar predictions for this year with the focus on the Screenplay categories.  All contenders from TFF #52 films are listed in Bold.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) Jay Kelly (4)

5) It Was Just an Accident (5)

Others: A House of Dynamite, Weapon and Blue Moon.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Hamnet (2)

2) One Battle After Another (1)

3) Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (3)

4) Bugonia (4)

5) Train Dreams (5)

Others: Frankenstein, No Other Choice and Wicked: For Good.

CRITIC'S CHOICE AWARDS AND DOCUMENTARIES

The Critic's Choice Awards recognized Ken Burns The American Revolution as Best Historical Documentary of the year.  The film tied with Hurricane Katrina: Race Against Time for the honor.  Burns was also named winner of the Critic's Choice Impact Award.

Burns also serves as a member of the TFF Board of Governors.

The American Revolution screened as a part of the 52nd Telluride Film Festival on Friday, Aug. 29th at 10:00am (MDT) at the Sheridan Opera House.

The Perfect Neighbor was named the Best Documentary Feature as well as four other awards to lead the event.

The complete list of all doc winners for The Critic's Choice awards can be found here.

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As We Head Into June / Ken Burns' Next Big Thing / Maybe we Can Join The Serkis?

AS WE HEAD INTO JUNE

As I have mentioned, we're only a few days away from beginning a couple of summer traditions here at MTFB.  Starting Next week I'll begin running down each of the distributors that have been the most common players with films at Telluride.  I'll take a look at the films from each outfit that are the most probable TFF choices and try to assess each film's chances of actually going to TFF #52.

As a way of setting the table for that, here's a quick look at which distributors we're talking about.  First, a little methodology.  I looked at each year going back to 2015 to gather the info.  I did leave out the covid year cancelled TFF despite the fest having released a lineup because it was surely not complete at the time the decision was made to cancel that year.

That said, here are the eight distributors I'll be looking at over the next few weeks based on the number of films they have screened at Telluride since 2015:

Netflix: 34 (3.8/yr.)

Sony Pictures Classics (SPC): 31 (3.4/yr.)

Neon: 19 (2.1/yr.)

A24: 16 (1.8/yr.)

(Fox) Searchlight: 14 (1.6/yr.)

Amazon/MGM: 12 (1.3/yr.)

Focus Features: 10 (1.1/yr.)

Mubi: 5***

***I include Mubi on the list with its small number of five films because it's a late-comer to The SHOW having screened all 5 within the last four fests for an average of 1.25/yr.

Some interesting tidbits...

Obviously, Netflix has screened the most films since 2015 (its first appearance at TFF came that year) but SPC is only three behind and both distribs are the only outfits that have had films screen every year of this survey. 

Searchlight only missed one year in this time frame in 2016.

Three of these distributors only missed two years:

Neon in 2017and 2015.

A24 in 2024 and 2018.

Focus Features in 2019 and 2016.

Monday we'll start with Netflix and look at what films they have and what might play TFF #52.  Subsequently, we'll look at the other distributors each week in the order of which house has played the most at T-ride since 2015.

KEN BURNS' NEXT BIG THING

TFF Board of Governors member Ken Burns has begun promoting his next big project which is a documentary look at American Revolution as the nation begins to hit the 250 year milestones that will lead up to the nation's Semiquincentennial or Bisesquicentennial coming on July 4th, 2026.

The six part 12 hour series will air on PBS beginning on Nov. 16th.  Normally it would be a no-brainer to think that at least some portion of the series, if not all six parts, would play at TFF...but... as a part of the roll out for it they've already begun a nationwide tour which has/will include screenings of at least some of the doc.  Those began last march in Richmond, VA. and will continue through Oct. 9th in Washington D.C.  The press release says that additional dates are forthcoming.

One wonders if those presentations will dissuade TFF from screening any of it.  It is of note that there is a gap between a July 17th presentation in L.A. and sept. 20th presentation in Saratoga, NY.

Here's a link to its PBS landing page including a small clip from the doc.

And here's a link to the official press release.

All things considered, I still think it's likely that at least some segments will be screened at TFF #52.

MAYBE WE CAN JOIN THE SERKIS?

Animal Farm still via World of Reel

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reports that Andy Serkis' animated adaptation of George Orwell's classic Animal Farm will premiere at the Annecy International Animation Film Festival.  That fest is set to run June 8-14.

I have thought for awhile that this could be a TFF choice and its inclusion for Annecy is in no way a TFF disqualifier.  As a matter of fact I could see it playing along with Raoul Peck's Documentary about Orwell: Orwell: 2+2=5 which just screened at the Cannes fest last month as a kind of TFF double bill.

Just a thought.

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The Usual Suspects / Babylon Still Up in the Air / Armageddon Arrives in October / She Said Trailer Coming

THE USUAL SUSPECTS

Each summer around this time I take some time to check out what Telluride's "Usual Suspects" have in the pipeline that could end up on the list films named to the TFF lineup.  The process is not always predictive but there have been many times when it has.

The striking thing this year is that there seem to be fewer "Usual Suspects" projects that could be in the pipeline.  That said...

Werner Herzog-The Fire Within which world premiered at the Sheffield Doc Fest last month.  The film focuses on Katia and Maurice Krafft who were featured in Herzog's 2016 Into the Inferno.  The couple were also the subject of a documentary that premiered at Sundance earlier this year: Fire of Love.

Ken Burns- The U.S. and the Holocaust.  The three part series is set to begin screening on PBS stations on Sept. 18th which suggests to me that a Telluride showing of some and perhaps all of the episodes are screened at TFF #49.

Paul Schrader-The Master Gardener.  Schrader has been represented at Telluride many times over the years: The Card Counter, First Reformed, Adam Resurrected.  I'd normally think that Master Gardener would be a Telluride lock BUT- Schrader has been announced as the recipient of this year's Venice Film Fest's Golden Lion award for Lifetime achievement.  How Venice schedules that presentation and where in their schedule they program The Master Gardener likely will determine whether Schrader's film plays Telluride.

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu-Bardo.  There was some back and forth occurring last week as to whether the film would be playing any fall fests.  At the end of the week the notion seemed to land on "probably".  My guess is a Venice early slot followed by a jump across the Atlantic to T-ride.  Inarritu has presented Babel, Biutiful and Birdman at Telluride. He's also been in town for Cuaron's Roma and Del Toro's The Shape of Water. I am expecting, if Bardo is ready for it to be at TFF #49.

Jean Pierre and Luc Dardennes- Tori and Lokita- The film premiered at Cannes, which, if anything, bolsters the probability that it makes its way to The SHOW.  The Dardennes have made a number of appearances at TFF:  The Child, The Kid with a Bike and Two Days One Night-their last TFF film in 2014.

Sebastian Lelio-The Wonder.  Lelio has made a splash at Telluride in recent years: Gloria in 2013 and A Fantastic Woman in 2017.  The wonder is also a Netflix title, which doesn't hurt.  

Bill Pohlad-Dreamin' Wild.  Pohlad has been a supporter of Telluride as well as a producer of films that play there for a good long while: A Hidden Life, Wild, 12 Years a Slave, Into the Wild, Fur, Brokaback Mountain.  Pohlad has a couple of directing credits including Love & Mercy which did not play Telluride but did screen at the Toronto Fest.  The film is also in the Focus Features bin.  

Producers that could be represented at TFF #49 that are "Usual" as well.

Martin Scorsese-The Eternal Daughter.  Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon will not be ready for fall fests and likely wouldn't play them even if it was. However, Scorsese is often represented at Telluride in his capacity as a producer: The Card Counter, Uncut Gems, Bleed for This.  Eternal Daughter is also being distributed by A24.

Barry Jenkins-Aftersun.  Aftersun played well at Cannes winning the French Touch Prize of the Critics' Week Jury and was produced, in part, by Barry Jenkins PASTEL.  It's also distributed by A24 which doesn't hurt either.  I'm bullish on its chances to screen at TFF.

Alfonso Cuaron-Raymond and Ray.  Cuaron producing a Rodrigo Garcia directed film here (Garcia was at Telluride in 2011 with the Glenn Close starrer Albert Nobbs.  The film's distributor is AppleTV+ which was at Telluride last year with The Velvet Underground.

And a special note here.  Sort of a "Usual Suspect" Daina Oniunas-Pusic who had shorts at TFF in 2015-The Beast and 2016-Rhonna and Donna and is now directing Tuesday starring Julia Louis-Dreyfus.  And it's from A24. (shout out to Jason Osiason who tipped me to this).

 BABYLON STILL UP IN THE AIR

Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel is keeping tight tabs on the status of Damien Chazelle's Babylon.  The latest word there is that its festival fate is still up in the air and it appears to be a tussle between Chazelle and Paramount.  Ruimy writes in his July 8th post:

"At the time of this article, Paramount and Chazelle are still in disagreement over whether they should bring “Babylon” to the fall festivals."

Ruimy also reveals a ton of details about the film including its current runtime of nearly three hours and that there is buzz that the film could be rated NC-17.  The link to Jordan's story is here BUT HERE IS YOUR SPOILER ALERT!  The post is rather detailed.

ARMAGEDDON ARRIVES IN OCTOBER

The Playlist reports that Focus Features has dated  James Gray's Armageddon Time for limited release on Oct. 18th.  That dating allows for it to be a part of Telluride, Toronto and/or New York.  The film premiered at the Cannes Fest back in May.

I have felt an upturn in its chances to be a Telluride selection in the last 2-3 weeks.

The film's IMDb description is as follows:

"A deeply personal coming-of-age story about the strength of family and the generational pursuit of the American Dream."

Armageddon Time stars Jessica Chastain, Anne Hathaway, Jeremy Strong and Anthony Hopkins.  

The story from The Playlist is here.

SHE SAID TRAILER COMING

Again, looking at World of Reel reporting that Maria Schrader's She Said will likely have a trailer drop in the next couple of weeks.  The film features Carey Mulligan and Zoe Kazan starring as the true life reporters who were instrumental in revealing Harvey Weinstein's abuse.

She Said is set for a Nov. 18th release.

WOR suggests that "The Oscar campaign for Maria Schrader’s “She Said” will kickstart with the trailer being released either next week or the week after that. Then, possibly a Telluride world premiere."

The complete WOR post is linked here.

The single fly in the ointment in the film's TFF-ishness is that it's from Universal which has a sketchy TFF track record having, by my count, screened only three films there over the past 15 years:

2008-Flash of Genius

2015-Steve Jobs

2018- First Man

Still I have had it in the Ten Bets or on the list of additional possibilities since the first Bets almost three weeks ago.

Stay tuned as I will share the trailer as soon as it becomes available.

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LATE BREAKING: TFF CHOSES BARRY JENKINS AS 2021 GUEST DIRECTOR / Little Late and a Little Short / This and That

LATE BREAKING: TFF CHOSES BARRY JENKINS AS 2021 GUEST DIRECTOR

From the TFF press release:

Los Angeles, CA – Telluride Film Festival, presented by National Film Preserve LTD., is proud to announce Academy Award-winning director Barry Jenkins as its 2021 Guest Director. The celebrated filmmaker is set to select a series of films to present at the 48h Telluride Film Festival running September 2 - 6, 2021. 

Festival organizers annually select one of the world’s great film enthusiasts to join them in the creation of the Festival’s program lineup. The Guest Director serves as a key collaborator in the Festival’s programming decisions, bringing new ideas and overlooked films to Telluride. In keeping with Telluride Film Festival tradition, Jenkins’s film selections, along with the rest of the Telluride lineup, will be kept secret until Opening Day.

“Each year as we think about who a good Guest Director would be, Tom and I weigh different factors,” said executive director Julie Huntsinger. “Many are based in the intellectual realm: film knowledge, appreciation and, of course, serious talent. But our recipe always includes something more ephemeral – something that has to do with the quality of the human heart. Rare is the person who exceeds on each of these criteria. Barry Jenkins checks every box and more. We feel lucky and a little incredulous that our long-time friend and very talented colleague has agreed to join us as Guest Director this year. The whole world knows of Barry’s gifts, and we’re thrilled that he is taking the time to share the films he loves in a place with the people who love him dearly.”

Academy Award winner Barry Jenkins’ feature film debut, MEDICINE FOR MELANCHOLY, was hailed as one of the best films of 2009 by The New York Times and received several Independent Spirit and Gotham Award nominations. In 2019, along with playwright Tarell Alvin McCraney, Jenkins received an Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay for his second feature the Academy Award and Golden Globe winning Best Picture MOONLIGHT. As well as earning eight Academy Award nominations, ten Broadcast Critics Choice Awards nominations, six Golden Globe nominations and four BAFTA nominations, MOONLIGHT won Best Picture and Director at the Gotham Awards and Best International Film by the British Independent Film Awards. In addition to NYFCC and NBR awarding Jenkins Best Director and LAFCA naming him Best Director and the film Best Picture, Jenkins received a DGA Best Director nomination and won the WGA Award for Best Original Screenplay. His third feature, the adaptation of James Baldwin’s IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK went on to receive three Academy Award nominations and won Best Picture at the Independent Spirit Awards. Jenkins also received the Independent Spirit Award for Best Director. Jenkins’ next feature film projects include a follow up to THE LION KING for Walt Disney Studios as well as a biopic of famed choreographer, Alvin Ailey, for Searchlight Pictures.

For television, Jenkins directed an episode in the first season of the Netflix Original Series DEAR WHITE PEOPLE. His most recent project for television is the critically acclaimed adaptation of Pulitzer Prize and National Book Award winner Colson Whitehead’s THE UNDERGROUND RAILROAD for Amazon. Jenkins has directed all episodes and written a number of the screenplays. Upcoming work includes a script based on the life of the first American Female Olympic boxing champ Clarissa “T-Rex” Shields as well as an adaptation of Netflix’s original documentary, VIRUNGA, about the battle to save the Congo’s mountain gorilla population.

My first Telluride was the 29th festival, in 2002. In the time since, I've done many things at the festival both high -- opening the Werner Herzog Cinema as Ringmaster and, of course, the world premiere of Moonlight -- and low (rolling up the floor of the Max at festival's end was a rite of passage). When I was approached about curating the Filmmakers of Tomorrow program many years ago, I was honored to be invited deeper into the inner workings of the festival I loved so dearly; being invited to curate a program as Guest Director is an honor my 2002 self would never imagine. We've all been tucked away in our silos longing for the day when we can safely venture out into communal spaces to once again partake in the rituals of cinema we love so dearly. I never doubted that the show would once again go on. But having a role in what is shown? Yes, that is quite the honor indeed. My thanks to Tom and Julie for bestowing this wonderful gift upon me. I'll see everyone at the SHOW. 

Past Guest Directors include Pico Iyer, Jonathan Lethem, Joshua Oppenheimer, Volker Schlöndorff, Rachel Kushner, Guy Maddin, Caetano Veloso, Michael Ondaatje, Alexander Payne, Salman Rushdie, Peter Bogdanovich, B. Ruby Rich, Phillip Lopate, Errol Morris, Bertrand Tavernier, John Boorman, John Simon, Buck Henry, Laurie Anderson, Stephen Sondheim, G. Cabrera Infante, Peter Sellars, Don DeLillo, J.P. Gorin, Edith Kramer and Slavoj Žižek.

 The Guest Director program is sponsored by Turner Classic Movies (TCM). Considered throughout the industry as one of the leading authorities on classic film, the network presents great films, uncut and commercial-free, highlighting the entire spectrum of film history. 

 For more information about Telluride Film Festival, visit www.telluridefilmfestival.org.

 LITTLE LATE AND A LITTLE SHORT

Pardon the later than normal posting time for todays' MTFB.  Also pardon it's brevity.  I'm working this week as a part of the staff for the National Speech and Debate Association's National Tournament.  High School students from across the nation and even from around the world are competing remotely to be national champions in a number of events.  We'll wrap up on Saturday.

THIS AND THAT

Here's a summary of a couple of items of interest regarding the 48th Telluride Film Festival:

1) Chances that Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch screening at Telluride  seem to have dimmed this week as an alert MTFB fan sent along an article from The Playlist that labels its already announced New York Film Fest screening as its "American Premiere" which would likely indicate a slot at Toronto but not Telluride.  NYFF also claimed that the film will host the U.S. Premiere as a part of a link to their announcement back in late May.  The link to that statement is: https://www.filmlinc.org/nyff2021/announcements/

2) Dune will play Venice...which could mean that it then makes the trip across the Atlantic to bow at Telluride.  Dune's screening date, however, is claimed to set for Sept. 3rd which doesn't preclude a Venice/Telluride double play but makes it a little trickier.  Indiewire is reporting the Sept. 3rd date.

3) Check out some conversations about Muhammad Ali that are a precursor to the Ken Burns' documentary about the late boxing champion that I suspect will part of the TFF #48 lineup.  You can find that link here.

4) Sean Penn's Flag Day won't rise at Telluride.  The film now has an announced release date of August 13th.

5) Here's a conversation featuring Guillermo Del Toro and Bradley Cooper about Nightmare Alley...which is still on  my list of possible TFF #48 titles.  

That's all for today...

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First Ten Bets of 2020 / Some Surprising Tidbits / The Distribs: Amazon

FIRST TEN BETS OF 2020

The last post of June has, over the past few years, become the post in which I lay down my first "Ten Bets" guesses for the Telluride Film Festival.  Most years, when I go back and look at the success rate of first "Tens" I'm feeling pretty good if I land 5 out of 10 that actually play over Labor Day weekend.  Here's the track record since I began the "Ten Bets" model of TFF predicting:

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10
2019: 4/10

Average: 5.4 per year.

So, I'm rolling up my sleeves and am going to make an attempt at a first Ten Bets for this year...but I'm already pleading a pre-emptive "mea culpa" for getting so much wrong.

10) Ammonite
9) Undine
8) The Secrets We Keep
7) Forgotten We'll Be
6) Untitled Garbus/Cortes Voting Rights Doc
5) Fireball
4) Nomadland
3) John Prine: Hello in There
2) Small Axe (Mangrove and/or Lover's Rock)
1) There Is No Evil


SOME SURPRISING TIDBITS

I ran across a couple of eye-opening news items since my last post.  First, the revelation from member of the TFF Board of Governors Ken Burns in an interview/Awards Chatter podcast with The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg that he will not be attending TFF #47.  From the article accompanying the podcast:

"However, Burns, whose Beatles-like haircut makes him instantly recognizable wherever he goes, laments that because of the pandemic, he cannot to some places he would like to, such as the Telluride Film Festival, which takes place in Colorado's Rocky Mountains each Labor Day weekend. "I've gone for 30 straight years, 31 overall," he says. "I premiered Huey Long [his 1985 doc] there, and then The Civil War, and I've never not gone [since]. It's incredibly painful not to go there, but I don't want to turn Telluride into Manhattan when it was a hot spot."

That's a lightning bolt.

The Feinberg article as well as the link to the complete interview are here.

Additionally both Indiewire's Anne Thompson and Deadline's Pete Hammond had some thoughts on Saturday about Telluride and the other fall fests in an interview with Gold Derby.

Thompson talks about TFF perhaps being a down-sized event:

"Anne Thompson of Indiewire and Pete Hammond of Deadline — they are both doubtful that an event in the less-populated state of Colorado will welcome outsiders with open arms this year. Thompson has booked a room for the time being, but also adds it is refundable. “I am prepared to go if it is happening.” But, realistically, she can’t see the festival allowing film journalists to attend who live in such large metropolitan areas as New York City and Los Angeles, where the COVID-19 numbers are high. She believes it just might be a local event, given all the restrictions it would have to overcome."

Hammond is even more provocative in a couple of statements.  He suggests that Telluride should announce titles beforehand rather than following their normal practice of announcing the day before the fest starts:

“Telluride is a big question mark for me. I haven’t decided if I am going , and definitely won’t if they don’t announce what movies they have a la TIFF. They normally don’t until the day before the fest, but this year is different and I don’t know if it is worth it."

We had heard (via Thompson in an earlier story at Indiewire) that Telluride would be announcing further plans in mid-July.  Hammond suggests that deadline might carry more weight than a listing of precautions that the festival would take:

"Heard as of two weeks ago for them the movies still aren’t there and they are waiting until mid-July to make a final call on go or no go.”

The complete article from Gold Derby is here.



THE DISTRIBS: AMAZON STUDIOS

Amazon Studios has been a constant player at Telluride since appearing for the first time in 2016.  Last year, however, their TFF entries did not become awards season players.  Here's the rundown of Amazon Studios films that have played TFF in their relatively short history:


2019: The Aeronauts, The Report
2018: Peterloo, Cold War
2017: Wonderstruck
2016: Manchester by the Sea

This year's most likely Amazon players look to be:

Steve McQueen's two Cannes "selected" films that are a part of his Small Axe project.  Both Mangrove and Lover's Rock carry the "Selection of Cannes" label as two of the 56 films named a few weeks back.  McQueen has a significant history with Telluride having screened Hunger, Shame and 12 Years a Slave there.

Will Sharpe's feature directing debut is the biopic of 19th century artist Louis Wain starring Benedict Cumberbatch.  The film also stars Andrea Riseborough and Claire Foy.

The untitled Liz Garbus/Lisa Cortes Voting Rights documentary featuring former Georgia gubernatorial candidate and voting rights activist Stacey Abrams-particularly timely in this election year.

And finally, Julia Hart's woman on the run film starring The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel's Rachel Brosnahan.

Chances:

Mangrove and/or Lover's Rock 50%
Garbus/Cortes Doc 40%
Louis Wain 25%
I'm Your Woman 20%

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Scorsese News / Norton Talks Motherless Brooklyn / Burns Country Blitz Continues

Tuesday...means I'm leaving the Big Apple and headed back to the real world...



SCORSESE NEWS

We had a couple of interesting nodes of Scorsese news in the past 24 hours.  The first, and most immediate in terms of TFF was the word yesterday that Scorsese's The Irishman will world premiere as the opening film for the New York Film Festival.  That happens three weeks after Telluride.  The world premiere designation means that the film will not have played at TFF #46.

The news isn't a shock and was what I expected to happen assuming the film was finished with the de-aging effects that were reported to be the thing slowing it down.

The Irishman is planned for a theatrical release and then is scheduled to begin streaming on Netflix, which produced the film.

Here are a couple of stories with the news of The New York selection from:

Indiewire

Awards Daily

In other Scorsese news I saw where he is in my home state of Oklahoma scouting locations for his upcoming adaptation of David Grann's Killers of the Flower Moon.  Flower Moon news in the last day or two also included the revelation that Robert DeNiro will be joining Leonardo DiCaprio in the cast of the film.
.
Here's news of the casting announcement from Indiewire and also news of Scorsese beginning to scout from The Playlist


NORTON TALKS MOTHERLESS BROOKLYN

Edward Norton recently spoke with Rolling Stone about his upcoming directorial, acting and writing effort for expected TFF #46 film Motherless Brooklyn.  The Rolling Stone article focuses on the use of  a new song from Radiohead's Thom Yorke.

Norton stars as a detective who suffers from Tourette's Syndrome and who is tasked with solving the mystery of the murder of his mentor in 1950's New York.

The interview with Norton from The Stone is linked here.



BURNS COUNTRY BLITZ CONTINUES

Documentarian Ken Burns continues to plow the ground to prepare the way for his PBS doc, Country Music.  The latest is a Variety story that was posted yesterday.

That Variety story is linked here.

Burns was a part of a panel discussing the film that also included Roseanne Cash, Marty Stuart and Dwight Yoakam.

The film is set to bow on PBS on Sept. 15th.


That's the truncated MTFB for this Tuesday... I'm expecting Toronto to announce Canadian titles for their fest tomorrow but the likely impact of that announcement in as far as divining Telluride films is minuscule.

https://variety.com/2019/tv/news/ken-burns-country-music-1203284222/


CURRENT TEN BETS...

10) The Truth
9) Ford v. Ferrari
8) The Two Popes
7) Pain and Glory
6) Uncut Gems
5) Judy
4) Motherless Brooklyn
3) Marriage Story
2) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
1) Parasite

That's the Monday MTFB.  More tomorrow...


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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Ten Bets 2019 #3 / A Couple to Keep an Eye On / Country Music Preview in San Fran

Welcome to Friday...hope you have a great weekend...


TEN BETS 2019 #3

Here's your weekly update concerning where I think the best bets are right now for making the lineup for the 46th Telluride Film Festival.

Last week's Ten Bets (plus some bonus speculation):

10) Jojo Rabbit
9) The Good Liar
8) Nomadland
7) Untitled Noah Baumbach Project
6) The Climb
5) Little Women
4) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
3) Family Romance LLC
2) Varda by Agnes
1) Parasite

Other films in serious play: The Goldfinch, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Atlantics, The Laundromat, Radioactive, Country Music, The Lighthouse, Harriet, The Truth, Synonyms, Motherless Brooklyn, Ad Astra, Molly, Lucy in the Sky.


This week's Ten Bets...

10) Nomadland
9) Judy
8) Motherless Brooklyn
7) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
6) Untitled Noah Baumbach Project
5) The Climb
4) Little Women
3) Family Romance LLC
2) Agnes by Varda
1) Parasite

The Good Liar and Jojo Rabbit drop into the "Other films in serious play" category which also includes: The Goldfinch, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Atlantics, The Laundromat, Radioactive, Country Music/Ryman Concert, The Lighthouse, Harriet, The Truth, Synonyms, Ad Astra, Molly, Lucy in the Sky.


A COUPLE TO KEEP AN EYE ON

Sophia Loren via Variety

Normally when I run across items about a new film that is getting off the ground and it sounds like a project that I should keep in mind as a possible Telluride choice down the line, I slap that into a folder on my laptop called "Future Telluride".

The oldest item I currently have in there is a notice that Steve McQueen was going to direct a biopic about Paul Robeson.  That's from 2014.   The oldest one that I have that is currently relevant is a notice from Variety about Reese Witherspoon would be in Pale Blue Dot from Fox Searchlight.  That's become Natalie Portman in Lucy in the Sky.  Reese Witherspoon is now a producer on the film.  It's still at Fox Searchlight and is scheduled for release sometime this fall.

All of that is to tell you that a project announcement has to really grab my eye for me to slap it on this page before or instead of putting it into the "Future Telluride" folder.  A couple of those happened within the last 48 hours.

First, a report from Variety that 84 year old screen legend Sophia Loren is working a new film.  The film entitled The Life Ahead is a re-imagining of  a Romain Gary novel that was previously adapted into 1978's Foreign Film Oscar winner Madame Rosa starring Simone Signoret.

Loren hasn't appeared in a feature film since Rob Marshall's Nine in 2009.

TFF #47 anyone?

That Variety story is linked here.

And if that wasn't enough, news that director David Fincher (Se7en, , Zodiac, The Social Network) is set to direct a biopic about Oscar winning screen writer Herman Mankiewicz (winning for Citizen Kane).  The film is Fincher's first feature since 2014's Gone Girl. 

The film is tentatively titled Mank and is said to feature recent Oscar winner Gary Oldman in the role.  Fincher is planning to shoot the film in black and white and the production is set up at Netflix.

Again, TFF #47???

I have linked stories on the Fincher project here from:

The Hollywood Reporter

Variety

SlashFilm 



COUNTRY MUSIC PREVIEW IN SAN FRAN

Ken Burns and PBS are going to preview his new documentary in San Francisco on July 24th.  The SFStation.com reported that earlier this week.

The preview is scheduled to go from 7:30 to 10:00 that evening and will be followed by a Q+A.  That timing leads me to believe that it is probably a screening of the Ryman Auditorium concert I wrote about last week.

Normally I'd think this kind of screening would disqualify the film from a TFF bow but I still think there's a good chance that it makes  an appearance at TFF.

Linked here is the SFStation interview with Burns.


That does it for this week.  I'll have more on Monday.  Enjoy the weekend!

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The Distributors 2019: Warner Bros / The Aeronauts Flies Into the Conversation / Country Music Preview

I'm back.

I was in Dallas, Texas all of last week working as a part of the staff for the National Speech and Debate Association's National Speech Tournament.  It was good.

THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: WARNER BROS.

This week I'm continuing to look at film production/distribution companies whose past record and current stash of films point to a possible choice for the 46th Telluride Film Festival.  Up until today's post I have been focused on specialty firms and streaming services.  Today is our first look at a major studio: Warner Bros.  Warners has, over the past half dozen years or so, made a mark on the festival. 

Here's their recent run at Telluride:

2018: No Show

2017: No Show

2016: Sully

2015 Black Mass

2014: No Show

2013: Gravity, Prisoners

2012: Argo

Warner Independent played Telluride in 2006 with Infamous and 2007 with Rails and Ties.

Last year Warners only likely Telluride play was A Star Is Born and we all know that didn't happen.

Despite not having a film at Telluride the past two years, 2019 could mark the return of the WB to the San Juans with four films that should be considered as possibles:

Bill Condon's The Good Liar starring Ian McKellen and Helen Mirren set for releases on Nov. 15th.  Condon has Telluride history (Kinsey-2004).

John Crowley's The Goldfinch starring Nicole Kidman and Ansel Elgort set for release Sept. 13th.  Crowley has Telluride history (Intermission-2003).

Edward Norton's Motherless Brooklyn starring Norton, Bruce Willis, Alec Baldwin and more.  It is set for release on Nov. 1.  Norton has no history with Telluride as a director - this is his second feature as a director- and I can't find any indication that Norton has been a guest of the fest in the past.  He has appeared in films that have played the festival: Birdman (2014), Frida (2002).  Also of note, Motherless Brooklyn is based on the novel by Jonathan Lethem who served as the fest's Guest Director last year.  That could be a signal.

Gavin O'Connor's Torrance (now reportedly renamed Long Time Coming) starring Ben Affleck as a former star athlete looking for redemption.  Affleck also acts as a producer for the film and his past success with Argo, which started its run to Oscar glory at Telluride, could make it a potential SHOW choice.

I honestly think any of the three could make the lineup and this could be the second time Warners lands more than a single film at TFF.

Chances:

The Goldfinch 60%
Motherless Brooklyn 50%
The Good Liar 40%
Long Time Coming 25%



THE AERONAUTS

I posted my analysis for Amazon Studios Telluride chances on June 17th and in it,a film I didn't even mention is Tom Harper's The Aeronauts.

Couple of reasons for that:  Amazon is loaded with films that have a shot at Telluride and the film, which has a logline that reads like a straight thriller/action-adventure flick, just didn't seem like a film and director Tom Harper, to the best of my knowledge hasn't been near the festival in the past.

But after news this weekend, it seems that I may have miscalculated.

The International Film Critique Twitter account tweeted that:

If it were to be chosen to open Venice that means I definitely need to pay attention as a number of films that have been the Venice opener in recent years have then jumped to Telluride: Birdman, Gravity, La La Land, First Man, Downsizing.  So, should this be the choice for Venice, I'd better pay attention.

Adding fuel to the fuel to the fire was reporting from World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy.

Ruimy updated a fest-centric article from late May with news of The Aeronauts (as well as The Good Liar and Jojo Rabbit).  That updated post is linked here.  Ruimy also posted a small blurb about the film yesterday suggesting he's thinking that it might make the T-ride lineup.  See that here.

Put The Aeronauts on the list that I originally published a week ago for Amazon Studios as follows:

The Goldfinch 60%
Radioactive 50%
Les Miserables 40% (Cannes prize winner: Jury Prize)
Against All Enemies 40%
The Report 35%
The Aeronauts 30%

COUNTRY MUSIC PREVIEW

PBS has released a 25 minute preview of Ken Burns' upcoming multi-party documentary : Country Music.  Here's a link that will get you to the preview:

Ken Burns' Country Music on PBS

I still believe there's a reasonable chance that TFF #46 attendees may be able to see at least part of the doc over Labor Day weekend.

That's a wrap for MTFB on this Monday.  More on its way to you tomorrow and coming FRIDAY...the first TFF #46 Ten Bets list of the summer!

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Moving Image from A Hidden Life / The Burns' Country Tour Continues / Coppola's Megalopolis Edges Closer

Hello on this Thursday...


MOVING IMAGE FROM A HIDDEN LIFE


We got our first video image of Terrence Malick's latest film this week.  A Hidden Life is set to compete for the coveted Palme d"or at Cannes' 72nd Film Festival with its premiere screening scheduled for Sunday night.

A Hidden Life (previously called Radegund) tells the story of a young Austrian who is punished by the Nazi regime in World War II for claiming to be a conscientious objector.

The Film Stage linked the teaser, and it is only a teaser as it runs a meager 15 seconds.  Here it is via YouTube:

Here's the link to The Film Stage story.



THE BURNS' COUNTRY TOUR CONTINUES

You have to hand it Ken Burns and his production company, Florentine Films.  They have been very busy promoting his upcoming multi-part documentary called Country Music for a while now.

That has extended to a recent interview with Melissa Newman for Billboard that was up this week.

Burns discusses a wide range of topics concerning the 16+ hour, eight episode mini-series that will run in its entirety over two weeks in September (following TFF #46) on PBS.

The dating of the initial PBS screening works well to anticipate Burns' return to Telluride and also that there is a reasonable chance that at least some of the documentary will screen as a part of  the film fest.

Here's the link to the Billboard interview.


COPPOLA'S MEGALOPOLIS EDGES CLOSER

80 year old American film master Francis Ford Coppola continues work on his latest passion project.  Megalopolis has been on Coppola's mind for decades and was derailed, at least in part, by the events of Sept. 11, 2001.

The latest news this week was that Coppola has actively moved into the casting phase for the project and the two names being dangled in a number of outlets were Jude Law and Shia LaBeouf..

More details are linked here via The Playlist.


That's the MTFB for today.  More to come on Monday.

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Late Breaking: Cannes #72 Poster Honors Varda / Final Set of Program Dedications / Peterloo Arrives / More Cannes Spec / The Burns Country Tour Continues

Good Monday to everyone.  Writing on my phone today as I have been art showing in Texas.

LATE BREAKING: CANNES #72 POSTER HONORS VARDA

Just released is the poster for the 72nd edition of Cannes featuring late film maker Agnes Varda.  Here it is:

FINAL SET OF PROGRAM DEDICATIONS

Here’s the last set of program dedications from TFF that I can find.  It appears that the fest began the feature of dedicating programs in 1990.
So, to complete the list I begin sharing last week here are the first few dedications from 1990-1997:


#24 1997- James Stewart
#23 1996- Louis Malle
#22 1995- Kathleen Tynan
#21 1994- Dennis Potter
#20 1993- Gary Essert
#19 1992-Nestor Almendros and Marion Zunz
#18 1991- Joel McCrea
#17 1990- Michael Powell



PETERLOO ARRIVES

Mike Leigh’s historical epic that played at TFF 45 last Labor Day opened in the United States Last weekend. As a result there has been a modicum of P.R. material appearing to coincide with it release.
The film was modestly received at T-ride and critically since then.

Leigh talked about the film in a recent post from J. Don Birnam writing for Awards Circuit.  You can find that interview linked here.



MORE CANNES SPEC

Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere has a post up with more speculation/predictions about which films will be named Thursday to the lineup for the 72nd Cannes Film Festival.

Included among the titles is the first mention that I’ve seen that Cannes might include if Jay Roach’s examination former of Fox News head Roger Ailes.
The film, titled Fair and Balanced, is reported by IMDb as “expected Dec. 20th and stars John Lithgow as Ailes.
Margot Robbie, Charlize Theron and Nicole Kidman also star.
Also mentioned in the Wells article Armando Iannucci’s The Personal History of David Copperfield,  Pablo Larrain’s Ema, Danielle Lesowitz’s Port Authority, Cristi Puiu’s Manor House and Marco Bellochio’s The Traitor.

Any of those films might be part of a Cannes-Telluride one-two punch.
As many of you know, Cannes and Telluride will often share an average of 7-8 films so this week’s Cannes lineup announcement should give us a lot to ponder as we look forward to TFF #46.
Wells’ post can be found here.



THE BURNS COUNTRY TOUR CONTINUES

(Photo of Johnny Cash from Episode 5 of Country Music via Sony Music Archives and The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

The Ken Burns Country Music Tour (at least that's what I', calling it) to bring attention to his forthcoming documentary about the history of country and western music in the United States is making another stop.  This time in Pittsburgh on Wednesday of this week.  As a part pf that stop, Burns did a solid interview with Scott Mervis for The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Burns doc is scheduled to launch on PBS a couple of weeks after the Telluride Film Festival (Sept. 15th) leading me to think that Telluride might be the final stop on "the tour".

The Post-Gazette article can be seen here.


That's a wrap on your Monday MTFB.  I'll be back on Thursday.  That post may well come a little later in the day so that I can do a bit of an entry on the Cannes lineup which will largely be announced that day.


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Indiewire's Cannes Wish List / Herzog on Gorbachev / More Country Music News

Welcome to Thursday...


INDIEWIRE'S CANNES WISH LIST

As we edge closer to the official announcement of the Cannes Film Festival lineup Indiewire has published its list of 50 films on their wish list for the 72nd edition of the French film affair.

Again, Scorsese's The Irishman and other Netflix titles are off the list and also likely off the Cannes list is James Gray's As Astra.

Among the 50 films that are on the Indiewire's hopefuls are these that I think seem Telluride-possible.  Most of the following titles have now become repeat mentions from previous Cannes' speculation pieces.  Alphabetically, those films are:

Ahmed (The Dardennes Brothers)
Ema (Pablo Larrain)
First Cow (Kelly Reichardt)
One Second (Zhang Yimou)
Radegund (Terrence Malick)
The Truth (Hirokazu Kore-eda)


The complete Indiewire list is here.


HERZOG ON GORBACHEV

Herzog at the Kremlin (via The Orchard and Indiewire)

Indiewire's Christian Blauvelt sat down with legendary filmmaker and Telluride "Esteemed Council of Advisors" member (and who has a TFF theater named for him) Werner Herzog last week to talk about his latest documentary film Meeting Gorbachev which premiered at TFF #45 last September.

Herzog's exploration of the former Russian/Soviet leader is scheduled for a May 3rd U.S. release from The Orchard.

The Indiewire interview with Herzog also includes an exclusive look at a trailer for the film.

You can find that interview here.


MORE COUNTRY MUSIC NEWS

The Tennessean reports that Ken Burns will donate a trove of the interviews that he and his crew have done for the upcoming PBS documentary Country Music to the Country Music Hall of Fame and Museum.

Burns is currently in the midst of promoting the 8 part 16 hour doc before it screens on PBS on  September 15th.

Burns past extensive connection to Telluride and his frequent presence at the festival with various projects leads me to think that there is a better than fair chance that at least some of the doc will bow at TFF #46 over the Labor Day weekend.

The Tennessean reports that Burns will be donating all of the recorded interviews and transcripts from over 40 artists.

The complete Tennessean article is linked here.


That will do for today.  I'll have more on Monday.

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I'm Back / Netflix and Cannes: The Breakup Continues / Malick at Cannes and Then... / Schiller Talks Telluride and More / Lucy in the Sky Teaser / Burn's Country Music / New Pic of Hanks as Rogers

Spring Break has concluded...

I'M BACK

After a ten day hiatus MTFB is back today after having spent Spring Break doing this and that.  Spent some of the break in NYC.  Saw Aaron Sorkin's adaptation of Harper Lee's To Kill a Mockingbird with Jeff Daniels.  It's nearly perfect.  Saw Bryan Cranston in Network...Cranston is phenomenal.  Did some other stuff.

It was good to step away for a few days, but I'm back now as we head our way to the announcement of the films that will play at Cannes which really does begin the Telluride speculation season on some earnest.   Here we go...


NETFLIX AND CANNES: THE BREAKUP CONTINUES

While I was away we found out that Netflix will again have zero films playing at the Cannes Film Fest in May.  The impasse that created that situation last year has not been resolved and as such, Netflix apparently will not be bringing any films to France in any of the programs.

That was reported in a  number pf places this past week including this from Variety.

In addition, as it turns out, the big fish in Netflix's barrel this season, Martin Scorsese's The Irishman reportedly wouldn't be ready anyway.  It seems that there is still far too much effects work to be done.  That according to Zack Sharf writing at Indiewire.

Sharf writes that a Venice premiere at this point seems the safest bet.  That would still seem to leave the door open for a screening at Telluride much in the way Netflix played Cuaron's Roma last year (and Searchlight did Shape of Water the year before).

My take is still some serious wariness.  Scorsese hasn't been at Telluride in decades.  I wouldn't be surprised if it played Venice and Venice alone or skipped fests all together. 

Still, Collider's Adam Chitwood suggests a run for the film through the Venice, Telluride, Toronto (maybe New York) gauntlet.


MALICK AT CANNES AND THEN...

And speaking of Cannes...there's a growing consensus that  Terrence Malick will return to Cannes in May with his latest film Radegund.  It's a film I have been stalking for quite some time mostly because it's Malick doing a film with a reportedly more traditionally narrative structure that tells the true story of an Austrian conscientious objector during World War II.

I'm hoping, that after a spate of films that haven't exactly been embraced (since Tree of Life) that this will be the path back to critical success for the auteur. 

Charles Barfield writing for The Playlist suggests that Cannes will screen the new film. That story is linked here.

Should that come to pass, the questions would be: does it play any other fests and which distributor picks it up?

I'll keep an eye on it.

SCHILLER TALKS TELLURIDE, FILM AND MORE?

Friend of the blog and multi-hyphenate Christopher Schiller was featured this week on The Weekend Take podcast with Shawn Schaffer.  Schiller runs down a number of topics including a love letter to the Telluride Film Festival.

You can find Schiller's guest stint and The Weekend Take podcast at iTunes at this link.



LUCY IN THE SKY TEASER


Here's the teaser from YouTube:

The Hollywood Reporter

First Showing

The Playlist

Indiewire




BURNS' COUNTRY MUSIC

The Asheville, NC  Citizen Times reports that Ken Burns is going to screen some moments of his new documentary on country music in Asheville next week (on April 2 on the UNC-Asheville campus).  It's yet another sign that, although the entire 16 hour doc may not be ready in its entirety, there's plenty of it to show to an audience.

This roll out in various parts in various places continues to make me think that a presentation of some of it over Labor Day weekend in T-ride  is a realistic possibility.

The Citizen Times article is linked here.



NEW PIC OF HANKS AS ROGERS

And to celebrate what would have been Fred Rogers 91st birthday, TriStar released a new photo from the set of A Beautiful Day in the neighborhood starring Tom Hanks as Rogers.

Here's the new photo:

The film is directed by Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) and is set for U.S. release on Nov. 22nd.

That's your "Spring Break Is Over Return Issue" of MTFB.  I'll have more on Thursday.


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