I'm Back / Netflix and Cannes: The Breakup Continues / Malick at Cannes and Then... / Schiller Talks Telluride and More / Lucy in the Sky Teaser / Burn's Country Music / New Pic of Hanks as Rogers

Spring Break has concluded...

I'M BACK

After a ten day hiatus MTFB is back today after having spent Spring Break doing this and that.  Spent some of the break in NYC.  Saw Aaron Sorkin's adaptation of Harper Lee's To Kill a Mockingbird with Jeff Daniels.  It's nearly perfect.  Saw Bryan Cranston in Network...Cranston is phenomenal.  Did some other stuff.

It was good to step away for a few days, but I'm back now as we head our way to the announcement of the films that will play at Cannes which really does begin the Telluride speculation season on some earnest.   Here we go...


NETFLIX AND CANNES: THE BREAKUP CONTINUES

While I was away we found out that Netflix will again have zero films playing at the Cannes Film Fest in May.  The impasse that created that situation last year has not been resolved and as such, Netflix apparently will not be bringing any films to France in any of the programs.

That was reported in a  number pf places this past week including this from Variety.

In addition, as it turns out, the big fish in Netflix's barrel this season, Martin Scorsese's The Irishman reportedly wouldn't be ready anyway.  It seems that there is still far too much effects work to be done.  That according to Zack Sharf writing at Indiewire.

Sharf writes that a Venice premiere at this point seems the safest bet.  That would still seem to leave the door open for a screening at Telluride much in the way Netflix played Cuaron's Roma last year (and Searchlight did Shape of Water the year before).

My take is still some serious wariness.  Scorsese hasn't been at Telluride in decades.  I wouldn't be surprised if it played Venice and Venice alone or skipped fests all together. 

Still, Collider's Adam Chitwood suggests a run for the film through the Venice, Telluride, Toronto (maybe New York) gauntlet.


MALICK AT CANNES AND THEN...

And speaking of Cannes...there's a growing consensus that  Terrence Malick will return to Cannes in May with his latest film Radegund.  It's a film I have been stalking for quite some time mostly because it's Malick doing a film with a reportedly more traditionally narrative structure that tells the true story of an Austrian conscientious objector during World War II.

I'm hoping, that after a spate of films that haven't exactly been embraced (since Tree of Life) that this will be the path back to critical success for the auteur. 

Charles Barfield writing for The Playlist suggests that Cannes will screen the new film. That story is linked here.

Should that come to pass, the questions would be: does it play any other fests and which distributor picks it up?

I'll keep an eye on it.

SCHILLER TALKS TELLURIDE, FILM AND MORE?

Friend of the blog and multi-hyphenate Christopher Schiller was featured this week on The Weekend Take podcast with Shawn Schaffer.  Schiller runs down a number of topics including a love letter to the Telluride Film Festival.

You can find Schiller's guest stint and The Weekend Take podcast at iTunes at this link.



LUCY IN THE SKY TEASER


Here's the teaser from YouTube:

The Hollywood Reporter

First Showing

The Playlist

Indiewire




BURNS' COUNTRY MUSIC

The Asheville, NC  Citizen Times reports that Ken Burns is going to screen some moments of his new documentary on country music in Asheville next week (on April 2 on the UNC-Asheville campus).  It's yet another sign that, although the entire 16 hour doc may not be ready in its entirety, there's plenty of it to show to an audience.

This roll out in various parts in various places continues to make me think that a presentation of some of it over Labor Day weekend in T-ride  is a realistic possibility.

The Citizen Times article is linked here.



NEW PIC OF HANKS AS ROGERS

And to celebrate what would have been Fred Rogers 91st birthday, TriStar released a new photo from the set of A Beautiful Day in the neighborhood starring Tom Hanks as Rogers.

Here's the new photo:

The film is directed by Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) and is set for U.S. release on Nov. 22nd.

That's your "Spring Break Is Over Return Issue" of MTFB.  I'll have more on Thursday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

RIP Pierre Rissient 1936-2018 / Views from Long Days Journey Into Night / Trailer for Portman's Eating Animals

Good Monday


RIP PIERRE RISSIENT 1936-2108

Photo via Institut Lumiere and Variety

News from France yesterday that film friend and Telluride staple Pierre Rissient has died.  He was 81.  Rissient has been described as a "warrior of cinema" as tributes and remembrances have poured in over the past 24 hours.

Rissient's presence has been such in Telluride's film history that the La Pierre Theater (adjoining the Palm) was named in his honor.   Rissient received Telluride's Silver Medallion in 1992.  The earliest reference I can find to Rissient and Telluride is his participation in 1983 with a presentation called "Lino Brocka: Cinema's Robin Hood".  Rissient, as of last year's fest, was still named a "resident curator".

IMDb lists Rissient as the director of two films Alibis in 1977 ans Five and the Skin in 1982.  Rissient was to have presented a restored version of Five and the Skin at Cannes this year.

The death of Rissient was noted throughout the film community.  I have linked stories from:

Variety

The Hollywood Reporter

Indiewire

[Correction: An earlier version of this post had Rissient's birth year as 1926-my apologies]

VIEWS FROM LONG DAY'S JOURNEY INTO NIGHT

The film Stage posted a story this week about Bi Gans' Cannes competition film Long Day's Journey Into Night which The Film Stage calls its most anticipated film of the Canes Palme competition.  The article which went up on Saturday includes multiple stills from the film.

As it is on my Telluride/Cannes list of potential crossover films, I have included a few of those here:

Long Days Journey is scheduled to premiere at Cannes on May 16.

The complete article from The Film Stage is here.



TRAILER FOR PORTMAN'S EATING ANIMALS


Making a splash at TFF #44 last Labor Day was the Natalie Portman produced documentary Eating Animals.  The doc is scheduled for release on June 15th and focuses on the effects globally of the reliance on animal flesh as a food source.

The film is being distributed by IFC Films and Sundance Selects and a trailer for it appeared this last week:

Trailer via YouTube

The Playlist included this coverage of the film this past week.

That's a wrap for this Monday.  More to come on Thursday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Ten (Plus) Bets #6 (AKA as 15 Bets) / Toronto's Platform Has No TFF #44 Crossover / The Cases for Mary Magdalene and John F. Donovan

Good Friday people!  The 44th Telluride Film Festival opens four weeks from today.


TEN (PLUS) BETS #6 (AKA 15 BETS)

Yes.  It's time to expand the list from 10 films we think will play TFF #44 to 15 as we get closer to The SHOW date and have learned more, it makes sense to expand the list.

Here's last week's Ten Bets and added possibilities:

1) Wonderstruck
2) Downsizing
3) Battle of the Sexes
4) A Fantastic Woman
5) The Shape of Water
6) The Rider
7) Hostiles
8) Lady Bird
9) First They Killed My Father
10) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool

Additionally other detective work seems to be indicating Darkest Hour, Loving Vincent, Human Flow (see below) and Wormwood are likely for  Telluride.

Other films that could still play Telluride: Visages/Villages, The Other Side of Hope, Lean on Pete, Mektoub My Love Canto Uno, First Reformed, The Leisure Seeker, Ex Libris, Our Souls at Night, First Reformed, Sweet Country and La Camera Insabbiata, You Were Never Really Here, The Florida Project, Happy End, Loveless, Ken Burns' Vietnam and Mary Magdalene.

Here's is this week's 15 Bets:

1) Wonderstruck
2) Downsizing
3) Battle of the Sexes
4) The Shape of Water
5) Darkest Hour
6) A Fantastic Woman
7) Hostiles
8) Lady Bird
9) The Rider
10) Loving Vincent
11) Human Flow
12) First They Killed My Father
13) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
14) Wormwood
15) The Florida Project and Visages/Villages (tie)

Other possibilities: Loveless, You Were Never Really Here, Lean on Pete, Mary Magdalene, The Other Side of Hope, Mektoub My Love, First Reformed, Happy End, Our Souls at Night, The Death and Life of John F. Donovan, Molly's Game.


TORONTO PLATFORM TITLES: NONE WILL BE IN T-RIDE

Yesterday the Toronto International Film Festival unveiled 12 titles for its Platform Section.  Last year, that section included one film that played Telluride and that was Barry Jenkins' eventual Best Picture Oscar winner Moonlight.

However, that situation will not be replicated in 2017 as none of the Platform choices appear to be playing Telluride first.  All 12 titles were listed either as World or North American Premieres meaning no T-ride.

Three films that were included had been on my radar for Telluride at some point but are now off:

The Death of Stalin
Brad's Status
Sweet Country

I was particularly bummed by The Death of Stalin from Veep creator Armando Ianucci.  I was really hoping that it would make the trip to Colorado but, alas, it seems that won't happen.

We expect more Toronto announcements next week.

Platform coverage is here from Indiewire.

And also here from Variety.


THE CASES FOR MARY MAGDALENE AND JOHN F. DONOVAN

Joaquin Phoenix and Rooney Mara from Mary Magdalene via The Daily Mail

These are a couple of films that I haven't had high up on my Telluride expectations list but because of recent circumstances in both cases, they have been rising in the last week or so.

Mary Magdalene...why it could play:  First it's from The Weinstein Company.  I am on record saying that I thought that TWC would return this year to TFF.  I had been working on the assumption that The Current War was the most likely vehicle for that to occur but we found out last week that Current War will debut at Toronto leaving Mary Magdalene as TWC's only real prospect for fests

Second, the timing is right...the film is set for a Nov. 24th release date.  Carol opened Nov. 20th in 2015, The Imitation Game Nov. 28th in 2014, The Artist on Nov. 25, 2011  There's a track record that suggests the path starts at Telluride.

Third, reportedly star Rooney Mara has enjoyed her Telluride experiences these past two years with Carol in 2015 and Una in 2016 (BTW, Una has finally been dated for release this past week.  The film will open on Oct. 6th) and it can't hurt if your star does like the fest.

As for The Death and Life of John  F. Donovan, I haven't paid much attention because it has been ambiguously dated for 2018.  I have been assuming that it would probably debut at Berlin or Cannes. That got a jolt this last week as a Vanity Fair story about writer/director Xavier Dolan claims that he's working on the final edit to have it ready for fall film fests:

Additionally, the film has seen recent releases of character posters:

When you start seeing posters, teasers, trailers at this time of year you begin to think that involvement in a fest is a real possibility.

Also, Dolan has been a Telluride guest before in 2014 with Mommy.

So, chalk John F. Donovan in as an increased possibility for Telluride.  The complete Vanity Fair article is here.

There's your Friday...more can be had on Monday.  Have a fantastic weekend.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Toronto Part Two / Categorical Weirdness / Tapley Lands at Variety / The Continuing "Jane Got a Gun" Saga

Welcome to Tuesday Everyone.

TORONTO PART TWO

I am expecting the second wave of announcements of films that will play the Toronto International Film Festival to come later today.  I believe that they are announcing Canadian films as a part of a specific program of films for that fest.

Whatever is announced, check back here for analysis about the TIFF choices and revelations and what they tell us about Telluride's possible lineup choices.

Which leads to this next thing...

CATEGORICAL WEIRDNESS

If you read this space with frequency and certainly in the last week since TIFF's announced first wave of films, then you know that there has been some oddity regarding how the film "Spotlight" has been categorized.  Reportedly tabbed as a Canadian premiere in some places and International in others plus some confusion in as far as what TIFF views as an International premiere.  That has led to a number of outlets concluding that "Spotlight" could well be playing Telluride.

Now, this added weirdness at least a couple of  sources reported yesterday that Julie Delpy's "Lolo" will premiere in Venice even though the TIFF website claims their screening is its World premiere.

Here's "Lolo's" page at the TIFF website:

http://tiff.net/festivals/festival15/galapresentations/lolo


Meanwhile, The Hollywood Reporter and tell us that the film will premiere as a part of the Venice Days program during the Venice Fest.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/julie-delpy-lolo-premiere-venice-812666

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/watch-julie-delpy-writes-directs-and-stars-in-venice-premiere-lolo-20150803

Obviously, the film can't World Premiere twice and in two different places.  So, what gives?

My takeaway from this is that these film fests still haven't gotten all the kinks and communication worked out regarding any particular film's premiere status and that all of us who are trying to read these particular tea leaves would do well to remember that.

PS...in my fevered dementia surrounding the Toronto and Venice announcements last week, I even developed a theory that would allow "Spotlight" to play all three fests, including Telluride, and still be properly labeled an "International" premiere in what seems to be the most commonly accepted definition of the term.  Don't ask.  It's really almost impossible.

TAPLEY LANDS AT VARIETY

I'm really happy to pass on this note that Kristopher Tapley and his InContention awards coverage has landed at Variety.com.  Tapley, who has been kind enough to provide film ratings each year as a part of MTFB's "Telluride Professionals" and has also been a source that I have accessed for The Film Awards Clearinghouse portion of this blog, will be joining the venerable entertainment publication on Aug. 24th and will be back in Telluride providing Variety's coverage.

Tapley's InContention and HitFix.com had been together since 2011 but came to a parting of ways at the end of June.

It will be good to have Kris' voice back online (and in Variety's print edition as well) very, very soon.
Congratulations, Mr. Tapley!

Coverage is here:

http://variety.com/2015/biz/awards/kris-kristopher-tapley-joins-variety-in-contention-1201555437/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/variety-adds-kris-tapley-to-awards-coverage-20150803

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/08/kris-tapley-lands-at-variety/


THE CONTINUING "JANE GOT A GUN" SAGA

"Jane Got a Gun" First Look from Movieclips and YouTube

If you've read this blog for some time, you know that I have often included stories about Gavin O'Conner's "Jane Got a Gun" which has been beleaguered to say the least.  It's struggle continued this week as half of its distributor plan- Relativity Media-declared bankruptcy.

The film had changes in director and cast and now this.  Vanity Fair posted a story of where this film is here:

http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2015/07/natalie-portman-jane-got-a-gun-delay


Will the film make it to its Sept. 4 release date or get pushed to 2016?


That's all for now.  Check back later today and tomorrow for news about the most recent announcements from Toronto.


Please feel free to leave a comment or question here at the blog.

Email me at michael_speech@hotmail.com or mpgort@gmail.com

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Cannes Countdown/Mulligan Talks "Suffragette" and More/New from "Sicario"/Coming Attractions: "Into the Inferno"

CANNES COUNTDOWN

We're less than a week away from the opening of the Cannes Film Festival (May 13) and the screening of a number of titles that could also screen in 4 months in The Chuck, The Palm or The Zog.  Consequently, The Playlist posted its examination of 20 Cannes film that it is most energized about.  Included in its list are such tiles as: "The Sea of Trees", "Carol", "The Cowboys", "Dheepan", The Lobster", "Macbeth", "Sicario", "The Tale of Tales" and "Youth".  Take a look at their entire list and the films' details here:


http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-25-most-anticipated-films-of-the-2015-cannes-film-festival-20150506




MULLIGAN TALKS "SUFFRAGETTE" AND MORE

Anne Thompson posted this phone interview this week with British actress and two time Telluride attendee Carey Mulligan.  Mulligan could make a third trip to T-ride on Labor Day weekend with Sarah Gavron's "Suffragette" which is among the topics Anne discussed with Mulligan, who is currently in NYC on Broadway in "Skylight".  The interview is here:



http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/carey-mulligan-just-says-no-goes-full-feminist-with-far-from-the-madding-crowd-and-suffragette-20150504


NEW FROM "SICARIO"

A new image from Denis Villeneuve's Cannes competition entry "Sicario" comes via HitFix this week.  Emily Blunt stars in what the director says is his best film.  Does it show at The SHOW?  I suspect that its possible, but might be a more likely a Toronto premiere.  Here's the story:


http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/exclusive-first-look-emily-blunt-and-josh-brolin-in-cannes-premiere-sicario



COMING ATTRACTIONS: "INTO THE INFERNO"

As we contemplate whether Werner Herzog's "Queen of the Desert" will be a part of TFF #42's lineup, word comes yesterday that the auteur has his sights set on his next project which immediately becomes a Telluride possibility for 2016.  Herzog will shop "Into the Inferno" to producers over the Cannes Film Festival with an eye to beginning production soon.  Details linked below:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/cannes-werner-herzogs-volcano-doc-793802

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/werner-herzogs-volcano-doc-into-the-inferno-heads-for-cannes-market-20150506

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/werner-herzogs-volcano-doc-into-the-inferno-heads-for-cannes-market-20150506


More to come on Monday...

More on " Lynne Leaves a Gun"/Cannes' New Poster/Sapphires' O'Dowd

Good Monday morning...

MORE ON "LYNNE LEAVES A GUN"

There's a lot of speculation and back and forth vis-a-vis the departure of director Lynne Ramsay from "Jane Got a Gun" which as far as I know still stars Natalie Portman.  It does NOT star either Michael Fassbender or Jude Law as they have both bolted from the project.  It probably does star Joel Edgerton and probably is being directed by Gavin O'Connor.  It may star Jeff Bridges, Tobey Maguire or Jake Gyllenhall...or none of them.

All of this about a film that at one  point was likely to be on the Telluride #41 watch list...now, who knows if it even gets completed.

I can tell you this, filming IS going on around Santa Fe, New Mexico.  I was in Santa Fe the past couple of days and film crew signage was up to direct cast and crew to locations near there so something appears to be going on amid all the turmoil.  And there reportedly has been a good deal of turmoil.  The Hollywood Reporter had a large post up this week about all of the problems that have bedeviled the project.  That is here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/natalie-portmans-jane-got-a-430317

The Playlist also delved into the story as well:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/did-lynne-ramsay-quit-jane-got-a-gun-over-final-cut-20130322

The Playlist also carried the story that Bridges, Maguire and Gyllenhall might be prospects to replace Law:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/jake-gyllenhaal-tobey-maguire-jeff-bridges-eyed-to-replace-jude-law-in-jane-got-a-gun-20130321


Stay tuned...

CANNES' NEW POSTER

Paul Newman and Joanne Woodward class up the new poster released this week for the 66th edition of the Cannes Film Festival.  Here's the poster:

And an accompanying story from The Wrap:

https://www.thewrap.com/movies/article/paul-newman-joanne-woodward-kiss-featured-cannes-poster-82166

SAPPHIRES' O'DOWD

Wayne Blair's "The Sapphires" is finally in theaters (in limited release) and Chris O'Dowd, who is outstanding in the film, is getting a lot of love and attention for his work in the film.  Guy Lodge at HitFix/InContention has a nice profile of the Irish actor here:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/chris-odowd-on-the-sapphires-making-it-in-america-and-why-hes-no-ken-doll


More on Thursday...

And Finally, It's Oscar Time

Labor Day weekend 2010 in the San Juans of southwest Colorado seems like a long, long time ago. Since our incredible experience at the 37th Telluride Film Festival, Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Oscar Clearinghouse has been tracking the possible outcomes for tonight's Oscar presentation and now it's time for the final pre-Oscar run-down of what we expect to happen after crunching numbers from Movie City News' The Guru's of Gold, Incontention.com, Scott Feinberg, Awards Daily, Awards Circuit, The Gold Derby.Com and Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly. In all 24 categories (with TFF #37 in CAPS AND BOLD). And the Oscar will go to:

(Absolutely no real number crunching on these first three categories, so based on a limited range of "expert" opinion)

Short Doc: Killing in the Name

Short Animated: Madagascar: A Journey Diary

Short Live Action: GOD OF LOVE

Sound Mixing: The OC says: Inception...

Sound Editing: The OC says: Inception...

Visual Effects: The OC says: Inception...

Makeup: The OC says: The Wolfman...

And I have to agree.

Original Score: The OC says: Alexandre Desplat, THE KING'S SPEECH...

Original Song: The OC says: Randy Newman, "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3...

Again, I agree that this is what will happen, but, you could see The OC wrong in both of these categories pretty easily. In Score, there is still significant feeling for The Social Network and Inception. And in the Best Song category, you can find supporters in the Oscar prediction community for any of the four nominated songs.

Foreign Film: The OC says: In a Better World/Denmark

And I will agree...but it is a tiny, tiny favorite with INCENDIES/Canada and BIUTIFUL/Mexico very, very close.

Documentary: The OC says: INSIDE JOB...

Again, I'm buying this, but it's also a really tight category. Serious heat exists for the art doc Exit Through the Gift Shop (and the attendant curiosity as to what Banksy might try in accepting...or declining...or both? Undoubtedly it would be entertaining)...and just as it is for Best Song, each of the five nominees has some serious Oscar prognosticators on its side.

Animated Film: The OC (and everyone on the planet that tries to divine this stuff) says: Toy Story 3...

Uh...Yes.

Costume: The OC says: Alice in Wonderland...

THE KING'S SPEECH is a close second in our analysis, and it's my actual pick...my first divergence from The OC.

Art Direction: The OC says:THE KING'S SPEECH...

Yes. But watch out for Alice or Inception...they also have a lot of support here.

Film Editing: The OC says: The Social Network...

I'm going to agree, but you can make a good case for any of the other four nominees and if it turns into a TKS Sweep...who knows?

Cinematography: The OC says: Roger Deakins/True Grit...

Again...yes. Deakins should finally win an Oscar for his great camera work. And it was impressive in True Grit. Possible spoiler would be Wally Pfister for Inception.

THE BIG EIGHT CATEGORIES:

Adapted Screenplay: The OC says: Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network...

Not much doubt here.

Original Screenplay: The OC says: David Seidler/THE KING'S SPEECH...

Close to a lock

Supporting Actor: The OC says: Christian Bale/The Fighter...

Again, close to a lock...except if TKS is in sweep mode, which could force Geoffrey Rush into an acceptance speech.

Supporting Actress: The OC says: Melissa Leo/The Fighter...

The predictors have come back around to Leo after a brief stretch were she was perceived as having lost some momentum. But Leo has bounced back in the last ten days in the estimation of most Oscar pundits. Still, I'm going to buck The Clearinghouse. I'm going with Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit. And, as you might expect, here's the added caveat that Helena Bonham Carter could surprise here if the TKS sweep is more of a tsunami.

Actress: The OC says: Natalie Portman/BLACK SWAN...

Yes. And she should win it too. There's still some Oscar picker love for Annette Bening, but I don't think that it's going to happen for her tonight.

Actor: The OC says: Colin Firth/THE KING'S SPEECH.

Ummm...if Firth doesn't win, then the Academy needs to start looking for new accountants for the Oscars...because he only loses if they count it wrong or bribery is involved.

Director: Maybe this has become the hottest race of the night. Big support for a Best Picture/Best Director split in the Oscar pundit club. Also significant support for the notion that if a film is the Best Picture, then it's Director has to have been the best as well...and most years that is the path that Oscar follows.

The OC says: David Fincher/The Social Network...

I say: Tom Hooper/THE KING'S SPEECH

BEST PICTURE: THE OC SAYS: THE KING'S SPEECH...

And I agree.

If the OC is right:

THE KING'S SPEECH-5

The Social Network-3

Inception-3

The Fighter-2

Toy Story 3-2

One each for: BLACK SWAN, INSIDE JOB, True Grit, The Wolfman, Alice in Wonderland, and In a Better World.

TFF #37 total: 7 (maybe up to 2 more depending on the outcome in Short Film categories)

If I'm right:

THE KING'S SPEECH-7

Inception-3

True Grit-2

Toy Story 3-2

The Social Network-2

One each for: BLACK SWAN, INSIDE JOB, The Fighter, The Wolfman, In a Better World

TFF #37 total: 9 (and again, maybe a couple more in Short Films).

Comments anyone?

I'll be tweeting during the Oscar cast tonight if anyone is interested set your Twitter search for @Gort2 and follow me.

MTFB/The OC will have preliminary reaction tomorrow and more in depth response from my actual industry source types and Academy members Tuesday or Wednesday.

So, now, we wait.

The Oscar Clearinghouse/Telluride Film #37 and Tech/Doc/Foreign Oscars

Ten days...

Here is the latest compilation of the smartest of the smart when it comes to Oscar prediction for the 13 categories outside the Big 8 (we haven't included the Short Film nominees...not enough experts weighing in to get an objective conclusion). Data was gathered from Incontention.com, Awards Daily, Scott Feinberg and the Gurus of Gold from Movie City News.

Telluride #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD.

Film Editing: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) The Fighter, 4) THE BLACK SWAN, 5) 127 HOURS.
Comment: A relatively close race between the top two. Although, you can make a pretty good case for any of the 5.

Cinematography: 1) True Grit, 2) Inception, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) BLACK SWAN, 5) The Social Network.
Comment: Roger Deakins was thought to be a shoo-in to get his first Oscar for "True Grit" and he's still a pretty solid favorite. But Wally Pfister's ASC win for "Inception" last weekend has made this a tighter race than expected.

Art Direction: 1) THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Alice in Wonderland, 3) Inception, 4) True Grit, 5) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows.
Comment: A pretty close race between King's and Alice. And Inception winning wouldn't be a shocker either.

Foreign Film: 1) INCENDIES/CANADA, 2) In a Better World/Denmark, 3) BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, 4) Outside the Law/Algeria, 5) Dogtooth/Greece.
Comment: A volatile category that any of the top three contenders could win.

Animated Film: 1) Toy Story 3, 2) How to Train a Dragon, 3) THE ILLUSIONIST.
Comment: TS3 has had this locked up for months.

Documentary: 1) INSIDE JOB, 2) Exit Through the Gift Shop, 3) Restrepo, 4) Waste Land, 5) Gasland.
Comment: This seems to be a two horse race between the top two.

Costume: 1) Alice in Wonderland, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) True Grit, 4) I Am Love, 5) The Tempest.
Comment: This category mirrors Art Direction...Alice or TKS...

Score: 1) (TIE) THE KING'S SPEECH and The Social Network, 3) Inception, 4) 127 HOURS, 5) How to Train Your Dragon.
Comment: Very close between TKS and TSN and an Inception win here wouldn't surprise either.

Song 1) Toy Story 3, 2) Tangled, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) Country Strong.
Comment: TS3 is likely, but not a lock to win this. Actually, this might be the most tightly bunched category from top to bottom out of the 21 major categories.

Sound Editing: 1) Inception, 2) True Grit, 3) Toy Story 3, 4) Tron: Legacy, 5) Unstoppable.
Comment: Inception has this locked up.

Sound Mixing: 1) Inception, 2) The Social Network, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) True Grit, 5) Salt.
Comment: Again, Inception is the prohibitive favorite.

Visual Effects: 1) Inception, 2) Alice in Wonderland, 3) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, 4) Hereafter, 5) Iron Man 2
Comment: Inception in a walk.

Makeup: 1) The Wolfman, 2) THE WAY BACK, 3) Barney's Version.
Comment: Wolfman has a substantial edge here.

Sooooo, if the Clearinghouse is 100 % accurate (Ha!)...This is the what the Oscar winning
breakdown would be on Feb. 27th:

The King's Speech wins 5 or 6 depending on Score ( and could get a 7th for Costume).

Inception wins 3.

The Social Network wins 2 or 3 (also depending on Score and could steal a 3rd or 4th if Fincher snags the Directing prize).

The Fighter and Toy Story 3 win 2 apiece.

And one Oscar each for: True Grit, Incendies, Inside Job, Alice in Wonderland, The Wolfman, and Black Swan.

Categories that are fluid: Director, Supporting Actress, Art Direction, Costume, Film Editing, Score, Song, Documentary and Foreign Film.

More next week...

Telluride Film #37/The OC and the SAG awards

Did you hear that door slamming 36 hours ago?

It was the door closing on anyone's thoughts that "THE KING'S SPEECH" might not be your Best Picture winner on Feb. 27.

After a week that had included surprise wins for TKS at The Producer's Guild and The Director's Guild, the SAG (Screen Actor's Guild) awards were thought to be the last chance to derail the juggernaut that was building. Some experts still holding to the notion the "The Fighter" or even "The Social Network" would prevail in the SAG"s version of"Best Picture" which is their Ensemble Award.

But when they opened the envelope, the TKS train just kept right on running.

Here (directly from the SAG website) are the winners from Sundays presentations:

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role: COLIN FIRTH / King George VI - "THE KING’S SPEECH" (The Weinstein Company)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:NATALIE PORTMAN / Nina Sayers – “BLACK SWAN” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role: CHRISTIAN BALE / Dicky Eklund – “THE FIGHTER” (Paramount Pictures and Relativity Media)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role: MELISSA LEO / Alice Ward – “THE FIGHTER” (Paramount Pictures and Relativity Media)

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture: THE KING’S SPEECH (The Weinstein Company)

Firth and Bale were not surprises. Portman solidified her chances as she continues to best what was thought to be her close competitor, Annette Bening. And in the Female Supporting category, Melissa Leo's win makes her the front-runner in a category that was thought to be the most fluid of the 4 individual acting categories.

With the Ensemble win, all signs now point to TKS having a big night at the Oscars. We're talking Slumdog type numbers (Slumdog won 8 Academy Awards). You have to think that TKS wins Picture, probably Director (DGA), Actor and Original Screenplay. Costume, Art Direction and Score are also likely. Unlikely are Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography and Sound Mixing. Leaving Film Editing as its only chance for an 8th Oscar, and that's not terribly likely either.

Who benefits from the TKS mini-sweep? "Inception," which likely ends Oscar night with the second largest total number of Oscars and "The Fighter," which will be the only film with more than one acting winner.

Who gets hurt: well...you know.."The Social Network" which increasingly looks as if it will win one Oscar for Aaron Sorkin's script and that's all.

Next time on Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Oscar Clearinghouse...we look at how the Oscar race mutated from September to now...and also, we'll start handicapping the Oscar categories for the winners on Feb. 27.

Oscar 83 and Telluride Film #37/The Oscar Clearinghouse

Telluride #37 with 32 Oscar nominations. The Clearinghouse gets 85 out 105 in 21 categories.

TFF #37 films with Oscar Noms:

THE KING'S SPEECH-12

127 HOURS-6

BLACK SWAN-5

BIUTIFUL-2

ANOTHER YEAR-1

THE WAY BACK-1

INSIDE JOB-1

INCENDIES-1

THE ILLUSIONIST-1

POSTER GIRL-1

GOD OF LOVE-1

THE KING'S SPEECH over-performed getting 12 nominations instead of the anticipated 9. True Grit hit its expected 10. BLACK SWAN (5 instead of the expected 7), 127 HOURS (6 instead of 7)and Inception (8 instead of 10) underperformed.

By category, here's how The Clearinghouse did.

Picture: Swan, Fighter, Inception, Kids, TKS, 127, TSN, TS3, True and Winter's. Clearinghouse goes 10 for 10. One of 4 categories that we hit 100% .

Director: 4 of 5. Aronofsky, Russell, Hooper, Fincher and The Coens. Coens a small surprise. Nolan's exclusion a BIG SURPRISE. Though we had The Coens as the first likely suspects if one of the predicted five didn't make the cut. I just never thought it would be Nolan that got the short end.

Actress: 5 of 5. Bening, Kidman, Lawrence, Portman, Williams. No Manville, though...sad face.

Actor: 4 of 5. Bardem, Bridges, Eisenberg, Firth, and Franco. Bardem in and Duvall out...again, we had Bardem as a possible spoiler.

Supporting Actress: 4 0f 5. Adams, Bonham Carter, Leo, Steinfeld, Weaver. In the last spot-Weaver. We had it as a dead heat with Mila Kunis.

Supporting Actor: 4 of 5. Bale, Hawkes, Renner, Ruffalo, and Rush. Hawkes in for Garfield. Yes!

Adapted Screenplay: 5 of 5. 127, TSN, TS3, True, Winter's

Original Screenplay: 5 of 5. Another Year (yea!), Fighter, Inception, Kids, TKS. A notoriously difficult pair of categories and The Clearinghouse got all 10 writing nominees. A little smug.

Animated: 3 of 3. Dragon, TS3 and THE ILLUSIONIST. Again...smug.

Foreign: 4 of 5. Biutiful, Dogtooth, In a Better World, Incendies, Outside the Law. Law in and S. Africa's "Life, Above All" out.

Doc: 2 of 5. One of our two worst categories. Exit thru the Gift Shop, Gasland, INSIDE JOB, Resterpo, Waste Land. The Big stunner is the absence of "Waiting for Superman."

Art Direction: 4 of 5. Alice, Harry, Inception, TKS, True. Harry for "Shutter Island"..though not really a surprise.

Cinematography: 4 of 5. Swan, Inception, TKS, TSN, True. TKS for 127 Hours...yes, that's a surprise.

Costume: 4 of 5. Alice, I am Love, TKS, Tempest, True. I am Love in for Black Swan...yes, also a surprise. One of the biggest of the day.

Film Editing: 4 of 5. Swan, Fighter, TKS, 127, TSN. King's Speech in, Inception out. A stunner and one of four or five "signs" that The King's Speech is actually the favorite to win Best Picture now. More on the "signs" below.

Makeup: 1 of 3. Barney's Version, The Way Back, The Wolfman. Barney and way Back in Alice and True Grit out. The OC was not good here, but also not awful. We had Barney and The Way Back listed as possible spoilers.

Original Score: 4 of 5. Dragon, Inception, TKS, 127, TSN. 127 Hours in and Never Let Me Go out. We did have 127 Hours listed as a possible.

Original Song: 3 of 4. Country Strong, Tangled, 127, TS3. Weirdly only 4 nominees. Country Strong in and Burlesque and Superman out.

Sound Edit: 4 of 5. Inception, TS3, Tron, True, Unstoppable. Unstop in for 127. We had Unstop as a possible.

Sound Mix: 3 of 5. Inception, TKS, Salt, TSN, True. Salt and King's in for Swan and Tron. Salt is a stunner and another "sign" that TKS may be the frontrunner.

Visual FX: 4 of 5. Alice, Harry, Hereafter, Inception, Iron Man 2. Hereafter stuns Tron.

Signs that THE KING'S SPEECH might be your frontrunner...Most nominations, Nominated for Film Editing (almost always a necessity for a film to win Best Picture is an accompanying nomination in Editing), Cinematography and SOUND MIXING??? Really????

Conventional (quick) wisdom is that The King's Speech wins Best Picture and several others and The Social Network's Fincher wins director.

Coming soon to the OC...we handicap the field of nominees for your Oscar winners.

The Oscar Clearinghouse #7 Re-Post. Telluride Film and the 83rd Academy Awards

Because of some issues I have decided to re-post the Clearinghouse from this morning.

It's been four and a half months since the Telluride Film Festival concluded and after the long awards season march the Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning. Here is the latest compilation of Oscar prognosticator's wisdom with our focus on the films that played as a part of the Telluride Film Festival in 2010. Categories have been limited to the appropriate number of nominees and three possible spoilers. TFF #37 films listed in CAPS AND BOLD.

Information collated from: Rope of Silicon, Incontention.com, Scott Feinberg, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Film Misery, The Gurus of Gold from Movie City News, The Awards Circuit and Film Experience.

Best Picture: 8 films seem like locks: THE KING'S SPEECH, BLACK SWAN, The Social Network, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, Inception and True Grit. 127 HOURS has actually solidified its chances in the last couple of weeks making it a probable nominee. It looks like that the last spot is between The Town and Winter's Bone with Bone having the inside track. The only other films with a prayer of cracking the Ten Nominees are Blue Valentine and ANOTHER YEAR, but it's the slimmest of chances.
If I had a ballot: See my top ten below. Suffice it to say (as I have been) that "The Social Network," "Toy Story 3," and "The Kids Are All Right" are over-rated.

Best Director: David Fincher/The Social Network and David O. Russell/The Fighter appear to be locks with TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN and Christopher Nolan/Inception looking very much like the other three nominees. If there is a surprise it would be (In order of likelihood) The Coen Brothers/True Grit, DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS or MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR.
If I had a ballot: Coens in and Russell OR Fincher out.

Best Actress: NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN and Annette Bening/The Kids Are All Right have been locks for months. Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone appears to have moved into that status as of the last two weeks. The other two spots look to go Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole and Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine. Three women who could intrude (in order of their chances) are: LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, Julianne Moore/The Kids Are All Right or a late charging Hilary Swank/Conviction.
If I had a ballot: Don't know that I'd do much different here...maybe move Manville to supporting, but that category is already filled with great work.

Best Actor: Locks: COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS. Very Likely the other three are: Robert Duvall/Get Low, Jeff Bridges/True Grit and Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network. Realistically, if a surprise occurs it would be Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL or Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter.
If I had a ballot: Eisenberg out for Leonardo DiCaprio in "Shutter Island."

Supporting Actress: (Still the most intriguing category) Two locks are Melissa Leo/The Fighter and HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH. Near locks are Amy Adams/The Fighter and Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit (Steinfeld would be a lock, but she's getting shaded into the Best Actress category by a couple of Oscar predictors...Hmmmm). And the last spot is an arm wrestling match between Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom and MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN (my bet is on Kunis). Only two other women might have a shot at a nomination: Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham and Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole.
If I had a ballot: I'm OK here if Kunis gets in.

Supporting Actor: Three men seem to have nominations assured. They are Christian Bale/The Fighter, GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH and Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are All Right. The last two spots look to be comfortably in the hands of Andrew Garfield/The Social Network and Jeremy Renner/The Town. Those that might sneak in are: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction or Matt Damon/True Grit.
If I had a ballot: Hawkes in for Renner, Ruffalo or Garfield. And I would add that I'd be voting for both Ed Harris and Colin Farrell from THE WAY BACK.

Adapted Screenplay: Locks: Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network, Michael Arndt/Toy Story 3, Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini/Winter's Bone. The other two nominees would appear to be Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit and DANNY BOYLE & SIMON BEAUFOY/127 HOURS. The three most likely spoilers are: Ben Affleck, Peter Craig & Aaron Stockard/The Town. David Lindsay-Abaire/Rabbit Hole and Roman Polanski & Robert Harris/The Ghost Writer.
If I had a ballot: Let this category stand.

Original Screenplay: Locks are: DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH, Christopher Nolan/Inception and Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg/The Kids Are All Right. Also likely nominees are: Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson/The Fighter and MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR. Three which could surprise are: Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curits & Cami Delavigne/Blue Valentine, MARK HEYMAN, ANDRES HEINZ & JOHN J. MC LAUGHLIN/BLACK SWAN, or Chris Provenzano & C. Gaby Mitchell/Get Low. Personally, I think Black Swan gets in instead of The Fighter and if I had a ballot I would certainly vote it in over "The Kids Are All Right."

Animated Film: Locks: Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon. Probable: THE ILLUSIONIST. Possible spoilers: Tangled, Despicable Me, Megamind. (Parenthetical comment: What a switch in the last 2 weeks as "The Illusionist" has surged ahead of "Tangled" to look like the third nominee. 14 days ago, "Tangled" looked like a cinch.)

Foreign Film: Locks: Nada. Probable: INCENDIES/CANADA, BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, In a Better World/Denmark, Life, Above All/South Africa and Dogtooth/Greece. Possible spoilers...any of the other 4 films still alive after the Academy cut the foreign list down to 9. (from Japan, Sweden, Spain and Algeria). The stunner was the exclusion of France's "OF GODS AND MEN."
Documentary: Only Lock: INSIDE JOB. Other probable nominees: Waiting for Superman, The Tillman Story, Resterpo and Client 9. Possible spoilers: The Waste Land, Exit Through the Gift Shop and The Lottery.

Film Editing: Locks: Inception, The Social Network, The Fighter. Likely: BLACK SWAN and 127 HOURS. Could Slide in: THE KING'S SPEECH, Shutter Island, True Grit.

Cinematography: Locks: Inception and True Grit. Likely: BLACK SWAN, The Social Network and 127 HOURS. Spoilers: Shutter Island, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE KING'S SPEECH.

Art Direction: Locks: Alice in Wonderland, Inception and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: Shutter Island and True Grit. Possible spoilers: Tron:Legacy and Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE WAY BACK.

Original Score: Locks: Inception is the only lock in this category. Probable nominees are: The Social Network, How to Train Your Dragon, THE KING'S SPEECH and NEVER LET ME GO. Possible spoilers: 127 HOURS, The Ghost Writer and True Grit.

Original Song: Locks: "I See the Light"/Tangled, "Shine"/Waiting for Superman, "We Belong Together"/Toy Story 3, and "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me"/Burlesque. The other likely nominee is "IF I RISE"/127 HOURS. Possible spoilers: "Coming Home"/Country Strong, "Despicable Me"/Despicable Me or "CHASON ILLUSIONIST"/THE ILLUSIONIST.

Costuming: Locks: Alice in Wonderland and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Tempest. Spoilers: Burlesque, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, Made in Dagenham.

Sound Editing: Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: 127 HOURS, Tron:Legacy, True Grit and Toy Story 3. Potential spoilers: How to Train Your Dragon, Iron Man 2 or Unstoppable.

Sound Mixing: Again, Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Social Network and Tron:Legacy. Potential surprises: Unstoppable, Iron Man 2 or Toy Story 3.

Makeup (3 noms only): Locks: Alice in Wonderland and The Wolfman. Other likely nominee: True Grit. Spoilers: THE WAY BACK, Jonah Hex, Barney's Version.

Visual Effects: Locks: Inception and Tron:Legacy. Likely nominees: Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, and Iron Man 2. Potential spoilers: Scott Pilgrim or Hereafter.

And, of course, there will be nominations for short form live action, animation and documentary.

The Breakdown: If the Clearinghouse nails it Telluride #37 films earn 30 nominations with 11 more potentially in the mix as spoilers.

The most nominated film(s) will be (according to The Clearinghouse): True Grit and Inception with 10 each (Grit is in play in four other categories and so could end up being the most nominated on its own). The rest of the multiple nominees look like this (with additional possible nominations in parenthesis):
10 nominations: True Grit (4), Inception (0)
9 nominations: THE KING'S SPEECH (2), The Social Network (0)
8 nominations: BLACK SWAN (2)
7 nominations: 127 HOURS (2), The Fighter (1)
4 nominations: The Kids Are All Right (1), Toy Story 3 (1), Alice in Wonderland (0)

Other TFF #37 films earning nominations: ANOTHER YEAR-1, BIUTIFUL-1, INCENDIES-1, NEVER LET ME GO-1, THE ILLUSIONIST-1, INSIDE JOB-1.

And finally, my top ten films for 2010...if I was voting, this would be my Best Picture ballot:
10) The Fighter
9) THE ILLUSIONIST
8) THE WAY BACK
7) Shutter Island
6) 127 HOURS
5) ANOTHER YEAR
4) BLACK SWAN
3) Inception
2) THE KING'S SPEECH
1) True Grit

Back tomorrow with the breakdown and analysis of what the nominations have been....

Nominations are Coming! Telluride Film and The Oscar Clearinghouse

Will Geoffrey Rush (seen here outside the Chuck Jones Theater at 2010's Telluride Film Festival) wake up Tuesday morning to an Oscar nomination? The signs say...Yes!

Coming Monday on Michael's Telluride Film Blog...final Oscar nomination predictions from The Oscar Clearinghouse. Will TFF#37 films earn 30 or more noms? We find out Tuesday morning. The announcement is scheduled to take place at 8:30 am Eastern, 7:30 am Central...5:30 am on the west coast.

Brits, Telluride Film #37 and The OC

The British version of the Academy (BRITISH ACADEMY OF FILM AND TELEVISION ARTS or BAFTA) nominations were announced early this morning. TFF #37 was strongly represented. Here are their nominations with Telluride films in Bold and Large

(Thanks to Incontention.com)

Best Film: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “The Social Network” “True Grit”

Best British Film: “Another Year” “Four Lions” “The King’s Speech” “Made In Dagenham” “127 Hours”

Best Director: Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan” Christopher Nolan, “Inception” Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech” Danny Boyle, “127 Hours” David Fincher, “The Social Network”

Best Actor: Javier Bardem, “Biutiful” Jeff Bridges, “True Grit” Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network” Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech” James Franco, “127 Hours”

Best Actress: Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right” Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right” Natalie Portman, “Black Swan” Noomi Rapace, “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”

Best Supporting Actor: Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network” Christian Bale, “The Fighter” Pete Postlethwaite, “The Town” Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech” Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, “The Fighter” Barbara Hershey, “Black Swan” Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech” Lesley Manville, “Another Year” Miranda Richardson, “Made In Dagenham”

Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” “127 Hours” “The Social Network” “Toy Story 3″ “True Grit”

Best Original Screenplay: “Black Swan” “The Fighter” “Inception” “The Kids Are All Right” “The King’s Speech”

Best Foreign Language Film: “Biutiful” “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” “I Am Love” “Of Gods and Men” “The Secret In Their Eyes”

Best Animated Film: “Despicable Me” “How To Train Your Dragon” “Toy Story 3″

Best Cinematography: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours” “True Grit”

Best Production Design: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “True Grit”

Best Costume Design: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “The King’s Speech” “Made In Dagenham” “True Grit”

Best Editing: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours” “The Social Network”

Best Make Up & Hair: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1″ “The King’s Speech” “Made In Dagenham”

Best Original Music: “Alice In Wonderland” “How To Train Your Dragon” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours”

Best Sound: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours” “True Grit”

Best Special Visual Effects: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1″ “Inception” “Toy Story 3″

Rising Star Award: Gemma Arterton Andrew Garfield Tom Hardy Aaron Johnson Emma Stone

Carl Foreman Award: (best debut by a British writer, director or producer)Clio Barnard, “The Arbor” Banksy and Jaime D’Cruz, “Exit Through the Gift Shop” Chris Morris, “Four Lions” Gareth Edwards, “Monsters” Nick Whitfield, “Skeletons”

The Breakdown:

THE KING'S SPEECH-14

BLACK SWAN-12

Inception-9

127 HOURS and True Grit-8

The Social Network-6

Kids Are All Right and Made in Dagenham-4

The Fighter and Girl with the Dragon Tattoo-3

ANOTHER YEAR and BIUTIFUL-2

OF GODS AND MEN-1

Telluride rakes 39 BAFTA nominations.

Comment: Maybe I am an anglophile, because this seems a lot more accurate to me than the conventional wisdom here in the States concerning the likely dominance of The Social Network.

A couple of interesting notes...Lesley Manville (Another Year) is nominated in Supporting Actress...which is where she should be instead of lead, which is where Oscar prognosticators have been putting her. Similarly, Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) is nominated as a Lead rather than Supporting which is also opposite of where she's being listed here in the US of A.

Barbara Hershey gets a BAFTA Supporting nomination for "Black Swan" instead of Mila Kunis who has had the majority of Oscar buzz in this country.

"Tamara Drewe's" Gemma Arterton and "Never Let Me Go's" Andrew Garfield are nominated as "Rising Stars."

The BAFTA Awards will be revealed Feb. 13.