Telluride #37 with 32 Oscar nominations. The Clearinghouse gets 85 out 105 in 21 categories.
TFF #37 films with Oscar Noms:
THE KING'S SPEECH-12
127 HOURS-6
BLACK SWAN-5
BIUTIFUL-2
ANOTHER YEAR-1
THE WAY BACK-1
INSIDE JOB-1
INCENDIES-1
THE ILLUSIONIST-1
POSTER GIRL-1
GOD OF LOVE-1
THE KING'S SPEECH over-performed getting 12 nominations instead of the anticipated 9. True Grit hit its expected 10. BLACK SWAN (5 instead of the expected 7), 127 HOURS (6 instead of 7)and Inception (8 instead of 10) underperformed.
By category, here's how The Clearinghouse did.
Picture: Swan, Fighter, Inception, Kids, TKS, 127, TSN, TS3, True and Winter's. Clearinghouse goes 10 for 10. One of 4 categories that we hit 100% .
Director: 4 of 5. Aronofsky, Russell, Hooper, Fincher and The Coens. Coens a small surprise. Nolan's exclusion a BIG SURPRISE. Though we had The Coens as the first likely suspects if one of the predicted five didn't make the cut. I just never thought it would be Nolan that got the short end.
Actress: 5 of 5. Bening, Kidman, Lawrence, Portman, Williams. No Manville, though...sad face.
Actor: 4 of 5. Bardem, Bridges, Eisenberg, Firth, and Franco. Bardem in and Duvall out...again, we had Bardem as a possible spoiler.
Supporting Actress: 4 0f 5. Adams, Bonham Carter, Leo, Steinfeld, Weaver. In the last spot-Weaver. We had it as a dead heat with Mila Kunis.
Supporting Actor: 4 of 5. Bale, Hawkes, Renner, Ruffalo, and Rush. Hawkes in for Garfield. Yes!
Adapted Screenplay: 5 of 5. 127, TSN, TS3, True, Winter's
Original Screenplay: 5 of 5. Another Year (yea!), Fighter, Inception, Kids, TKS. A notoriously difficult pair of categories and The Clearinghouse got all 10 writing nominees. A little smug.
Animated: 3 of 3. Dragon, TS3 and THE ILLUSIONIST. Again...smug.
Foreign: 4 of 5. Biutiful, Dogtooth, In a Better World, Incendies, Outside the Law. Law in and S. Africa's "Life, Above All" out.
Doc: 2 of 5. One of our two worst categories. Exit thru the Gift Shop, Gasland, INSIDE JOB, Resterpo, Waste Land. The Big stunner is the absence of "Waiting for Superman."
Art Direction: 4 of 5. Alice, Harry, Inception, TKS, True. Harry for "Shutter Island"..though not really a surprise.
Cinematography: 4 of 5. Swan, Inception, TKS, TSN, True. TKS for 127 Hours...yes, that's a surprise.
Costume: 4 of 5. Alice, I am Love, TKS, Tempest, True. I am Love in for Black Swan...yes, also a surprise. One of the biggest of the day.
Film Editing: 4 of 5. Swan, Fighter, TKS, 127, TSN. King's Speech in, Inception out. A stunner and one of four or five "signs" that The King's Speech is actually the favorite to win Best Picture now. More on the "signs" below.
Makeup: 1 of 3. Barney's Version, The Way Back, The Wolfman. Barney and way Back in Alice and True Grit out. The OC was not good here, but also not awful. We had Barney and The Way Back listed as possible spoilers.
Original Score: 4 of 5. Dragon, Inception, TKS, 127, TSN. 127 Hours in and Never Let Me Go out. We did have 127 Hours listed as a possible.
Original Song: 3 of 4. Country Strong, Tangled, 127, TS3. Weirdly only 4 nominees. Country Strong in and Burlesque and Superman out.
Sound Edit: 4 of 5. Inception, TS3, Tron, True, Unstoppable. Unstop in for 127. We had Unstop as a possible.
Sound Mix: 3 of 5. Inception, TKS, Salt, TSN, True. Salt and King's in for Swan and Tron. Salt is a stunner and another "sign" that TKS may be the frontrunner.
Visual FX: 4 of 5. Alice, Harry, Hereafter, Inception, Iron Man 2. Hereafter stuns Tron.
Signs that THE KING'S SPEECH might be your frontrunner...Most nominations, Nominated for Film Editing (almost always a necessity for a film to win Best Picture is an accompanying nomination in Editing), Cinematography and SOUND MIXING??? Really????
Conventional (quick) wisdom is that The King's Speech wins Best Picture and several others and The Social Network's Fincher wins director.
Coming soon to the OC...we handicap the field of nominees for your Oscar winners.
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