Late Breaking News/Ten(+) Bets/Kevin's Trailer/Darren Aron-NOAH-sky/My Friend Marlon

Good Morning America!

Back to a real job today for this guy.  Teaching Inservice today and tomorrow.  Classes start Wednesday.
Also...pseudo-waiting...

The 38th Telluride Film Festival starts in 18 days...

LATE BREAKING NEWS

Two items making Telluride connected news late last night.:

1) Ioncinema.com baldly claims what I have expected for some time and that is that Werner Herzog's documentary "Into the Abyss" will play T-ride.  No surprise there.



and 2) Film critic and Telluride regular (and past Silver Medallion recipient) Leonard Maltin had surgery for a detached retina yesterday in El Paso, TX.  Wishing you a speedy recovery, Mr. Maltin!


TEN (+) BETS

There's some chance that we see W.E.

Last week's Ten Bets were:

1) The Descendants
2) Gazing Into the Abyss
3) A Trip to the Moon
4) The Artist
5) We Have to Talk About Kevin
6) Le Havre
7) Prohibition
8) Drive
9) Shame
10) The Kid with a Bike/Dark Horse (tie)

This week's Ten Bets:

1) The Descendants
2) Into the Abyss
3) The Artist
4) A Trip to the Moon
5) We Have to Talk About Kevin
6) Le Havre
7) Prohibition
8) Shame
9) Drive
10) The Kid with a Bike

Here's the "+"
11) Dark Horse
12) The Birds Upstairs
13) The Skin I Live In
14) The Lady
15) W.E.
16) The Ides of March
17) Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
18) Albert Nobbs
19) Coriolanus
20) A Dangerous Method

Note: Kris Tapley at Incontention.com in his July 28th Telluride spec piece listed three Sundance films as possibles, but because they already appeared in Park City, I'm doubtful that they will be in T-ride.  The three are: "Take Shelter," "Like Crazy" and "Martha Marcy May Marlene."

Now that we're down to less than three weeks, I may update the "Ten Bets" list with more frequency than once a week depending what oozes out that I can latch onto.


KEVIN'S ENGLISH TRAILER

A lot of buzz surrounding Lynne Ramsay's "We Need to Talk About Kevin" this last week including a post from the weekend from First Showing.net for the film's U.K. trailer.  Tilda Swinton and John C. Reilly star.  The trailer looks appropriately chilling and kind of creepy.  "Kevin" remains at #5 on this week's "Ten Bets."

Here's the link:
http://www.firstshowing.net/2011/must-watch-we-need-to-talk-about-kevin-official-uk-trailer-lands/

Kevin's IMDb page:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1242460/

DARREN ARONOFSKY AND NOAH

Earlier this summer I passed on the news that Darren Aronofsky (director of last year's TFF#37 sensation and multi-Oscar nominated "Black Swan"--Natalie Portman winning Best Actress) was  tackling the Biblical story of Noah as his next project.  Because it's Aronofsky and because "Swan" had such a successful run last year, you have to include "Noah" as a future Telluride possibility at least for the time being.

Get the Big Picture.com posted a fairly substantial speculative piece about that "Noah" project this weekend.  You can take a look at that post here:
http://www.getthebigpicture.net/blog/2011/8/13/we-can-only-speculate-what-noah-will-be-like-under-darren-ar.html?utm

Aronofsky's IMDb page is here:
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0004716/


MY FRIEND MARLON

One of the most viewed posts that I put up this summer included my pictures of me and film legend Marlon Brando.  It was fun to relive that two day period when the double Oscar winner and arguably the finest screen actor of all time was in Weatherford, OK.

So, naturally, when I saw the post this week from Open Culture.com that included Brando's screen test for "Rebel Without a Cause" I had to put a link to it here on my blog.  Not only because it's really cool, but also because it gave me another excuse to put up the Brando and me photo...

Here's the link to Brando's screen test (which, of course, was unsuccessful. Some kid named James Dean got the role  The article also has a link to Dean's screen test):
http://www.openculture.com/2011/08/marlon_brando_screen_tests_for_irebel_without_a_causei.html

Brando's IMDb page:
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000008/

Rebel's IMDb page:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0048545/



FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER:
http://twitter.com/#!/@Gort2

Peter Falk/Small World/Danny Boyle!/More Beatty

RIP Peter Falk (1927-2011)..."As you wish..."


Sorry for the late post today...busy, busy!

IT'S A SMALL WORLD

You know, I've always heard the cliche that Hollywood is a small town and everybody knows everybody in the "Biz" but I've always kind of thought that that statement was probably more apocryphal than real.  However, in the last month I've started to thunk there's more truth to the claim than I thought possible.  Allow me to explicate...(and all of this revolves around my good fortune to get to play at the Telluride Film Festival for the past five years).

1) Made a friend  (Casey Twenter..."Hi Casey, if you're reading this") who is an aspiring screenwriter after he reached out to me following TFF #36.  You've read about his project in this space the last couple of weeks.  "Rudderless" is the screenplay currently set to be the directorial debut for Oscar nominated actor William H. Macy (remember this for later).  Casey has been kind enough to keep me in the loop and correspond over the past 2 years as this project has been moving forward.  It's been fun.  This week, we were catching up and as a part of that conversation, he asked me if I had seen or heard anything about a film called "Girlfriend".

2) Last year at TFF #37 I sat next to and struck up a friendly conversation with a fellow named Seth Chatfield (Hi Seth, if you're reading this).  I asked Seth the normal..."What do you do?  Why you here?" type questions.  Seth said he's there as part of a group that's the producing team for a film that's going to debut  a week or so later at Toronto.  The film..."Girlfriend".  So, as you might imagine, when Casey asked me about it yesterday, I was stunned..."What are the chances?"  I thought.  Seth and I have also kept up something of a correspondence the last ten months.  "Girlfriend" was well received at Toronto and has its premiere in NYC on July 15.  But wait, there's more...

3) Another friendship I forged a couple of years back came as a result of being on line for some film with  my mom and dad and as we were waiting we struck up a pleasant conversation with a nice couple from California.  Again, asked them the routine questions.  She says he's an editor and director.  She's an arts advocate.  We smile and nod.  My wife and I teach arts in the public schools.  We have a very nice conversation about that and what films might be "sneaked" later in the weekend.  They seem to know some things.  So, I get back to the room that evening and curiosity forces me to search the IMDB.  He turns out to be the real deal and I feel like an idiot that I had no idea (at the time, I do now).  His name: Mark Helfrich (her name: Alexandra.  "Hi Mark and Alexandra, if you're reading this").  Mark has edited a ton of stuff...BIG TIME STUFF.  Currently he is editing "Tower Heist" the next big thing from director Brett Ratner.  Yes, he edits Ratner's stuff.  All the time.  His other editing credits include: All three "Rush Hour" films, "Red Dragon," "X-Men: The Last Stand," and the original "Scary Movie" among others.  He has directed for television and the feature film "Good Luck Chuck." (remember this for later as well).  Mark and Alexandra and I have also kept in touch over the past two years...

4) Most readers know that I am a speech/debate/drama teacher and have been for a good long time.  I have former student who has just graduated from college and is working to set aside money and head for the west coast in January.  She's interning this summer  in Oklahoma City with a local casting director and as a result has gotten extra work on the Nick Cassavetes film that is lensing in that vicinity.  It's title: "Yellow."  As a part of all that she met the casting director, a fellow named Matthew Barry.  He has along list of credits including casting for...wait for it..."Good Luck Chuck".  Yeah...I know.  Mark confirmed it was the same guy late last week.  Also, "Yellow" features, among others, Sienna Miller.  Sienna just dropped out of the film adaptation of Elmore Leonard's "Freaky Deaky".  Also dropping out...wait for it...William H. Macy.  Again...I know.

5) And finally, I got asked to review a new independent film this week by writer/director Kenton Bartlett. The film is called "Missing Pieces" and features, among others, Melora Walters perhaps best known for roles in two Paul Thomas Anderson films "Boogie Nights" which I like and "Magnolia" which I love.  Both films co-star...William H. Macy.  And as a topper, I sat behind Paul Thomas Anderson at Telluride in 2007 in a screening of Noah Baumbach's "Margot at the Wedding."

Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon?  I feel like I'm this close (I'm holding my thumb and index finger on my right hand a half an inch apart) to knowing almost everyone in the film industry.

"Rudderless" IMDB page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1798243/
"Rudderless" Facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/Rudderless-The-Movie/194390831736
"Girlfriend" IMDB page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1470859/
"Girlfriend" Facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/GIRLFRIEND/247774270511
"Good Luck Chuck" IMDB page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0452625/
Mark Helfrich's IMDB page: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0375068/
"Yellow" IMDB page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1588898/
"Missing Pieces" IMDB page: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1579242/
"Missing Pieces" Facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Kenton-Bartlett-Movie/74342639138?ref=ts
"Missing Pieces" website: http://kentonbartlett.com/
Matthew Barry's IMDB page: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0058089/
William H. Macy's IMDB page: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000513/
Sienna Miller's IMDB page: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1092227/
Melora Walters IMDB page: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0001828/

BOYLE UP A NEW FILM FOR TFF #40?

The word last night was that Danny Boyle's next project will feature actor James McAvoy in a film called "Trance."  It appears to be under the Fox Searchlight banner.  All of these factors make it a film that should be considered likely as a Telluride prospect.  To wit: Boyle has attended the festival with his last two films, "Slumdog Millionaire" and "127 Hours," to great success critically.  McAvoy hasn't physically been present to my knowledge but he has had films with high profiles at Telluride recently.  McAvoy's "The Last King of Scotland" (for which Forest Whitaker won the Best Actor Oscar) and "The Last Station" (nominations for Christopher Plummer and Helen Mirren) played at Telluride.  And Fox Searchlight seems to always be represented strongly at the Festival.
Sources indicate that 2013 is the prospective release date.   Of course, Boyle has his hands full currently as he is set to direct London's opening ceremonies for next year's summer Olympics.

Here are posts about  "Trance" from both Rope of Silicon and The Playlist.

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/article/mcavoy-caught-boyles-trance-superman-casting-terminator-talk


http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/james_mcavoy_takes_over_for_michael_fassbender_in_danny_boyles_trance/


MORE DETAILS EMERGE ABOUT WARREN AND HIS HOWARD MOVIE

Rope of Silicon also has more details concerning the announced film from Warren Beatty that broke this week.  The picture will be directed, written produced and feature Beatty as Howard Hughes.  And maybe it's a comedy.  Check the story at:


http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/article/beattyhughes-update


"BLACK SWAN" COLLABORATORS COLLABORATING

Mark Heyman who wrote the screenplay for "Black Swan" is reported to have a new script that he's shopping around and has Darren Aronofsky attached to produce.  The Playlist reports that the film titled "XOXO" is something of a mashup between "Swan" and "The Social Network."  Heyman and Aronofsky are said to be looking for financing and distribution.  Assuming that they find that, you'd have to think that the finished product would also be on a future Telluride watch list.  No word on director (maybe Heyman himself) or cast.  Check The Playlist's story at:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/black_swan_writer_mark_heyman_pens_facebook_thriller_xoxo_darren_aronofsky/

Coming up tomorrow...more detail on the new Oscar voting rules...maybe clarification, maybe more confusion?  And also, more on Casey Twenter's "Rudderless".

The OC and What They Are Saying About Oscar

Can't wait to find "the way back" to Telluride for TFF #38

After a couple of days to reflect, I spoke with some of the people that I have met over the past 3 years since starting this blog. People that are Academy members and Industry insiders... and asked them some questions about the 83rd edition of Oscar. Here are some of the things they had to say...

Universally, there was keen disappointment in the "show" itself. "Lifeless" was a term I heard more than once and I couldn't agree more. A good deal of scorn was heaped on James Franco, who seemed to just give up abut 1/2 way through the telecast. Anne Hathaway escaped being tarred as heavily as Franco, but my sources weren't exactly falling all over themselves to praise her work either. One of my peeps said, "It was like an episode of SNL where none of the skits is working." Good point.

Reflecting the general consensus from the Oscar blogosphere, my sources echoed the notion that there were no upsets or real surprises. Aside from mild (and I do mean mild) "surprises" in Cinematography and in terms of The King's Speech not winning as many statues as some of my source folk (and I) though would happen (I.E. Art Direction, Costume and Score). There was a little bit of surprise from one source that Melissa Leo won Supporting Actress over Hailee Steinfeld.

I had one passionate defense of The Social Network as the film of our time and the one film that would be remembered down the road.

I also had a source that commented on the success of Harvey Weinstein in terms of the actual Oscar campaign for "The King's Speech." In recent years Weinstein hasn't been able to put that together like he had in the past (think "Shakespeare in Love"). But this year's success makes one think that he's found his mojo again.

Lot's of praise for acceptance speeches of Colin Firth and Tom Hooper. And one note about how funny Randy Newman was.

Disappointment? One source was dismayed that "Inside Job" won out over "Restrepo." Another just said he wasn't all that passionate about any of Sunday night's results. Another was disappointed in Best Animated Short Subject.

I asked everyone to look forward one year and predict a film that we'd be talking about the day after the 84th Oscar ceremony...huge response for David Fincher's re-make of "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo."

I'm dubious.

Coming Friday...the first look at what might play at Telluride's 38th Film Festival. Passes went on sale yesterday. My hookup says I'm solid for Labor Day! Counting down the days!!!

Oscar 83 Post-Mortem/The Oscar Clearinghouse

Move along, there's nothing to see here.

It was the Oscar Night of no surprises. The biggest "surprise," if you could call it that, was the Inception/Wally Pfister win for Cinematography over Roger Deakins for True Grit. And even that wasn't much of a stunner as Pfister had won the Guild award from cinematographers a few days ago. Otherwise, it was according to expectations.

The Clearinghouse was 17 of 21 in the non-Short subject categories. In the three categories where I personally differed from the Clearinghouse numbers, I was 1 of 3 (The OC got Costume and Supporting Actress right, I missed those. I got Tom Hooper's Directing Oscar right, The OC said it would be David Fincher). So, personally, I was 16 of 21...17 of 24 when you throw in the Short Subject categories.

Overall, both The OC analysis and I improved over last year's 14 of 24 so maybe we're getting better.

End of the night numbers:

The King's Speech-4

Inception-4

The Social Network-3

Alice in Wonderland-2

The Fighter-2

Toy Story 3-2

One each for Black Swan, Inside Job, In a Better World, & The Wolfman.

7 Oscars from Telluride #37 films (TKS-4, Black Swan-1, Inside Job-1, God of Love-1)

The King's Speech wave did not really materialize, but The Social Network didn't/couldn't take advantage of that (except, perhaps in the Best Score Category). The biggest beneficiaries were Alice in Wonderland and Inception.

And...James Franco...No, Anne Hathaway...Yes.

Later this week on MTFB/The OC...post Oscar interviews with Academy voters and industry insiders. Check back in!

And Finally, It's Oscar Time

Labor Day weekend 2010 in the San Juans of southwest Colorado seems like a long, long time ago. Since our incredible experience at the 37th Telluride Film Festival, Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Oscar Clearinghouse has been tracking the possible outcomes for tonight's Oscar presentation and now it's time for the final pre-Oscar run-down of what we expect to happen after crunching numbers from Movie City News' The Guru's of Gold, Incontention.com, Scott Feinberg, Awards Daily, Awards Circuit, The Gold Derby.Com and Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly. In all 24 categories (with TFF #37 in CAPS AND BOLD). And the Oscar will go to:

(Absolutely no real number crunching on these first three categories, so based on a limited range of "expert" opinion)

Short Doc: Killing in the Name

Short Animated: Madagascar: A Journey Diary

Short Live Action: GOD OF LOVE

Sound Mixing: The OC says: Inception...

Sound Editing: The OC says: Inception...

Visual Effects: The OC says: Inception...

Makeup: The OC says: The Wolfman...

And I have to agree.

Original Score: The OC says: Alexandre Desplat, THE KING'S SPEECH...

Original Song: The OC says: Randy Newman, "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3...

Again, I agree that this is what will happen, but, you could see The OC wrong in both of these categories pretty easily. In Score, there is still significant feeling for The Social Network and Inception. And in the Best Song category, you can find supporters in the Oscar prediction community for any of the four nominated songs.

Foreign Film: The OC says: In a Better World/Denmark

And I will agree...but it is a tiny, tiny favorite with INCENDIES/Canada and BIUTIFUL/Mexico very, very close.

Documentary: The OC says: INSIDE JOB...

Again, I'm buying this, but it's also a really tight category. Serious heat exists for the art doc Exit Through the Gift Shop (and the attendant curiosity as to what Banksy might try in accepting...or declining...or both? Undoubtedly it would be entertaining)...and just as it is for Best Song, each of the five nominees has some serious Oscar prognosticators on its side.

Animated Film: The OC (and everyone on the planet that tries to divine this stuff) says: Toy Story 3...

Uh...Yes.

Costume: The OC says: Alice in Wonderland...

THE KING'S SPEECH is a close second in our analysis, and it's my actual pick...my first divergence from The OC.

Art Direction: The OC says:THE KING'S SPEECH...

Yes. But watch out for Alice or Inception...they also have a lot of support here.

Film Editing: The OC says: The Social Network...

I'm going to agree, but you can make a good case for any of the other four nominees and if it turns into a TKS Sweep...who knows?

Cinematography: The OC says: Roger Deakins/True Grit...

Again...yes. Deakins should finally win an Oscar for his great camera work. And it was impressive in True Grit. Possible spoiler would be Wally Pfister for Inception.

THE BIG EIGHT CATEGORIES:

Adapted Screenplay: The OC says: Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network...

Not much doubt here.

Original Screenplay: The OC says: David Seidler/THE KING'S SPEECH...

Close to a lock

Supporting Actor: The OC says: Christian Bale/The Fighter...

Again, close to a lock...except if TKS is in sweep mode, which could force Geoffrey Rush into an acceptance speech.

Supporting Actress: The OC says: Melissa Leo/The Fighter...

The predictors have come back around to Leo after a brief stretch were she was perceived as having lost some momentum. But Leo has bounced back in the last ten days in the estimation of most Oscar pundits. Still, I'm going to buck The Clearinghouse. I'm going with Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit. And, as you might expect, here's the added caveat that Helena Bonham Carter could surprise here if the TKS sweep is more of a tsunami.

Actress: The OC says: Natalie Portman/BLACK SWAN...

Yes. And she should win it too. There's still some Oscar picker love for Annette Bening, but I don't think that it's going to happen for her tonight.

Actor: The OC says: Colin Firth/THE KING'S SPEECH.

Ummm...if Firth doesn't win, then the Academy needs to start looking for new accountants for the Oscars...because he only loses if they count it wrong or bribery is involved.

Director: Maybe this has become the hottest race of the night. Big support for a Best Picture/Best Director split in the Oscar pundit club. Also significant support for the notion that if a film is the Best Picture, then it's Director has to have been the best as well...and most years that is the path that Oscar follows.

The OC says: David Fincher/The Social Network...

I say: Tom Hooper/THE KING'S SPEECH

BEST PICTURE: THE OC SAYS: THE KING'S SPEECH...

And I agree.

If the OC is right:

THE KING'S SPEECH-5

The Social Network-3

Inception-3

The Fighter-2

Toy Story 3-2

One each for: BLACK SWAN, INSIDE JOB, True Grit, The Wolfman, Alice in Wonderland, and In a Better World.

TFF #37 total: 7 (maybe up to 2 more depending on the outcome in Short Film categories)

If I'm right:

THE KING'S SPEECH-7

Inception-3

True Grit-2

Toy Story 3-2

The Social Network-2

One each for: BLACK SWAN, INSIDE JOB, The Fighter, The Wolfman, In a Better World

TFF #37 total: 9 (and again, maybe a couple more in Short Films).

Comments anyone?

I'll be tweeting during the Oscar cast tonight if anyone is interested set your Twitter search for @Gort2 and follow me.

MTFB/The OC will have preliminary reaction tomorrow and more in depth response from my actual industry source types and Academy members Tuesday or Wednesday.

So, now, we wait.

Coming Soon...and Costumes

The Costume Designer's Guild awarded their trophies last night. Telluride films did well. "The King's Speech" and "Black Swan" were both winners. Here is the link to that story from The Hollywood Reporter.

THR_Movies
'King's Speech,' 'Black Swan,' 'Glee' Among Costume Designers Guild Award Winners http://j.mp/f2IvXy

Coming tomorrow: a surprise from The Oscar Clearinghouse...an interview with a member of the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences.

The Oscar Clearinghouse/Telluride Film #37 and Tech/Doc/Foreign Oscars

Ten days...

Here is the latest compilation of the smartest of the smart when it comes to Oscar prediction for the 13 categories outside the Big 8 (we haven't included the Short Film nominees...not enough experts weighing in to get an objective conclusion). Data was gathered from Incontention.com, Awards Daily, Scott Feinberg and the Gurus of Gold from Movie City News.

Telluride #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD.

Film Editing: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) The Fighter, 4) THE BLACK SWAN, 5) 127 HOURS.
Comment: A relatively close race between the top two. Although, you can make a pretty good case for any of the 5.

Cinematography: 1) True Grit, 2) Inception, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) BLACK SWAN, 5) The Social Network.
Comment: Roger Deakins was thought to be a shoo-in to get his first Oscar for "True Grit" and he's still a pretty solid favorite. But Wally Pfister's ASC win for "Inception" last weekend has made this a tighter race than expected.

Art Direction: 1) THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Alice in Wonderland, 3) Inception, 4) True Grit, 5) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows.
Comment: A pretty close race between King's and Alice. And Inception winning wouldn't be a shocker either.

Foreign Film: 1) INCENDIES/CANADA, 2) In a Better World/Denmark, 3) BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, 4) Outside the Law/Algeria, 5) Dogtooth/Greece.
Comment: A volatile category that any of the top three contenders could win.

Animated Film: 1) Toy Story 3, 2) How to Train a Dragon, 3) THE ILLUSIONIST.
Comment: TS3 has had this locked up for months.

Documentary: 1) INSIDE JOB, 2) Exit Through the Gift Shop, 3) Restrepo, 4) Waste Land, 5) Gasland.
Comment: This seems to be a two horse race between the top two.

Costume: 1) Alice in Wonderland, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) True Grit, 4) I Am Love, 5) The Tempest.
Comment: This category mirrors Art Direction...Alice or TKS...

Score: 1) (TIE) THE KING'S SPEECH and The Social Network, 3) Inception, 4) 127 HOURS, 5) How to Train Your Dragon.
Comment: Very close between TKS and TSN and an Inception win here wouldn't surprise either.

Song 1) Toy Story 3, 2) Tangled, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) Country Strong.
Comment: TS3 is likely, but not a lock to win this. Actually, this might be the most tightly bunched category from top to bottom out of the 21 major categories.

Sound Editing: 1) Inception, 2) True Grit, 3) Toy Story 3, 4) Tron: Legacy, 5) Unstoppable.
Comment: Inception has this locked up.

Sound Mixing: 1) Inception, 2) The Social Network, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) True Grit, 5) Salt.
Comment: Again, Inception is the prohibitive favorite.

Visual Effects: 1) Inception, 2) Alice in Wonderland, 3) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, 4) Hereafter, 5) Iron Man 2
Comment: Inception in a walk.

Makeup: 1) The Wolfman, 2) THE WAY BACK, 3) Barney's Version.
Comment: Wolfman has a substantial edge here.

Sooooo, if the Clearinghouse is 100 % accurate (Ha!)...This is the what the Oscar winning
breakdown would be on Feb. 27th:

The King's Speech wins 5 or 6 depending on Score ( and could get a 7th for Costume).

Inception wins 3.

The Social Network wins 2 or 3 (also depending on Score and could steal a 3rd or 4th if Fincher snags the Directing prize).

The Fighter and Toy Story 3 win 2 apiece.

And one Oscar each for: True Grit, Incendies, Inside Job, Alice in Wonderland, The Wolfman, and Black Swan.

Categories that are fluid: Director, Supporting Actress, Art Direction, Costume, Film Editing, Score, Song, Documentary and Foreign Film.

More next week...

The OC/How the Oscar Race Evolved

The Telluride Film Festival along with Toronto and Venice have become the unofficial start to the Oscar season each year. Consequently, the first serious attempts at Oscar prediction occur as those festivals come to an end in September.

In today's post we take a look back at what we thought would happen and contrast that with how it all came out when the nominations were announced last week. The Clearinghouse first was up on Sept. 26. And on that day, this is what we thought:

Best Picture: Already the field was pretty well established. 9 of the 10 of the eventual Best Pic nominees were on the list. Mike Leigh's "Another Year" was the film in the 7th position that eventually gave way to "Winter's Bone." "Bone"was lurking" as the 14th film on the list.

Best Director: Again, Mike Leigh and "Another Year" was on this list ( at #2) riding a wave of positive critical response that had begun with its presentation at Cannes. And Danny Boyle's "127 Hours" was at #3. But Leigh and Boyle were supplanted by The Coen Brothers for "True Grit" (who are also popularly believed to have supplanted "Inception's" Christopher Nolan at the last minute) and by Darren Aronofsky foe "Black Swan." Both The Coens and Aronofsky were lurking in the next five at #9 and #8 respectively.

Best Actress: 3 actual nominees were on the first attempt-Bening and Portman were 1-2 and Kidman was at #4. Also on that first list-Lesley Manville and Sally Hawkins. Manville and Hawkins were replaced by the actual nominations of Jennifer Lawrence and Michelle Williams. On that first pass at prediction Lawrence was at #6 and Williams was at #8.

Best Actor: 4 of the 5 eventual nominees were on the first stab at prognostication. Firth, Franco, Eisenberg, and Bridges. Robert Duvall and Mark Wahlburg (who was tied with Bridges for the #5 spot) ended up on the outside looking in. They were replaced by Javier Bardem for "Biutiful." Bardem is believed to have bumped Duvall out at the very end of the nominating process. Bardem began on 9/26 at the # 8 spot.

Best Supporting Actress: The original guess had 3 of the 5 eventual nominees. Leo, Bonham Carter and Weaver. Also on that original list were Miranda Richardson for "Made in Dagenham" and Dianne Weist for Rabbit Hole. The other two actually nominated, of course, were Hailee Steinfeld and Amy Adams. Steinfeld was first set at the #6 spot while Adams began at #9.

Best Supporting Actor: Again a 3 of 5 category as the original prediction included actual nominees Bale, Rush and Ruffalo. Also included were Andrew Garfield and Justin Timberlake from "The Social Network." Actual nominees John Hawkes ("Winter's Bone') and Jeremy Renner ("The Town") were nowhere on the original list of ten possible nominees in what was the worst category for early prediction.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 3 for 5. The first guess got "The Social Network," "Toy Story 3, " and "Winter's Bone." "Rabbit Hole" and "Love and Other Drugs" which were on that first list failed to secure nominations. "127 Hours" (at #6 originally) and "True Grit" (at #9 originally) did.

Best Original Screenplay: 5 for 5. The first prediction had them all right..."Kids," King's," "Inception," "Another Year," and "The Fighter" were all listed as nominees on the very first chart.

For the Big 8 Categories the original Clearinghouse was 33 of 45 and of the 12 that were missing 10 were considered "possible." The only total whiffs were John Hawkes and Jeremy Renner in Supporting Actor.

Finally...the Oscar Finals Ballots went in the mail on Wednesday. The consensus at this moment would be the following:

Picture: "The King's Speech"

Director: Tom Hooper/King's (although there is still a chunk of support for the notion that Fincher could still win the thing)

Actress: Natalie Portman/Swan(still some feel for Annette Bening)

Actor: Colin Firth/TKS...not much doubt

Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo/Fighter is in the lead but Hailee Steinfeld is still regarded as having a chance.
Supporting Actor: Christian Bale/Fighter...again, not much doubt

Adapted Screenplay: Sorkin/"The Social Network" a prohibitive favorite.

Original Screenplay: David Seidler/"The King's Speech" also a prohibitive favorite.

Telluride Film #37/The OC and the SAG awards

Did you hear that door slamming 36 hours ago?

It was the door closing on anyone's thoughts that "THE KING'S SPEECH" might not be your Best Picture winner on Feb. 27.

After a week that had included surprise wins for TKS at The Producer's Guild and The Director's Guild, the SAG (Screen Actor's Guild) awards were thought to be the last chance to derail the juggernaut that was building. Some experts still holding to the notion the "The Fighter" or even "The Social Network" would prevail in the SAG"s version of"Best Picture" which is their Ensemble Award.

But when they opened the envelope, the TKS train just kept right on running.

Here (directly from the SAG website) are the winners from Sundays presentations:

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role: COLIN FIRTH / King George VI - "THE KING’S SPEECH" (The Weinstein Company)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:NATALIE PORTMAN / Nina Sayers – “BLACK SWAN” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role: CHRISTIAN BALE / Dicky Eklund – “THE FIGHTER” (Paramount Pictures and Relativity Media)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role: MELISSA LEO / Alice Ward – “THE FIGHTER” (Paramount Pictures and Relativity Media)

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture: THE KING’S SPEECH (The Weinstein Company)

Firth and Bale were not surprises. Portman solidified her chances as she continues to best what was thought to be her close competitor, Annette Bening. And in the Female Supporting category, Melissa Leo's win makes her the front-runner in a category that was thought to be the most fluid of the 4 individual acting categories.

With the Ensemble win, all signs now point to TKS having a big night at the Oscars. We're talking Slumdog type numbers (Slumdog won 8 Academy Awards). You have to think that TKS wins Picture, probably Director (DGA), Actor and Original Screenplay. Costume, Art Direction and Score are also likely. Unlikely are Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography and Sound Mixing. Leaving Film Editing as its only chance for an 8th Oscar, and that's not terribly likely either.

Who benefits from the TKS mini-sweep? "Inception," which likely ends Oscar night with the second largest total number of Oscars and "The Fighter," which will be the only film with more than one acting winner.

Who gets hurt: well...you know.."The Social Network" which increasingly looks as if it will win one Oscar for Aaron Sorkin's script and that's all.

Next time on Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Oscar Clearinghouse...we look at how the Oscar race mutated from September to now...and also, we'll start handicapping the Oscar categories for the winners on Feb. 27.

Oscar 83 and Telluride Film #37/The Oscar Clearinghouse

Telluride #37 with 32 Oscar nominations. The Clearinghouse gets 85 out 105 in 21 categories.

TFF #37 films with Oscar Noms:

THE KING'S SPEECH-12

127 HOURS-6

BLACK SWAN-5

BIUTIFUL-2

ANOTHER YEAR-1

THE WAY BACK-1

INSIDE JOB-1

INCENDIES-1

THE ILLUSIONIST-1

POSTER GIRL-1

GOD OF LOVE-1

THE KING'S SPEECH over-performed getting 12 nominations instead of the anticipated 9. True Grit hit its expected 10. BLACK SWAN (5 instead of the expected 7), 127 HOURS (6 instead of 7)and Inception (8 instead of 10) underperformed.

By category, here's how The Clearinghouse did.

Picture: Swan, Fighter, Inception, Kids, TKS, 127, TSN, TS3, True and Winter's. Clearinghouse goes 10 for 10. One of 4 categories that we hit 100% .

Director: 4 of 5. Aronofsky, Russell, Hooper, Fincher and The Coens. Coens a small surprise. Nolan's exclusion a BIG SURPRISE. Though we had The Coens as the first likely suspects if one of the predicted five didn't make the cut. I just never thought it would be Nolan that got the short end.

Actress: 5 of 5. Bening, Kidman, Lawrence, Portman, Williams. No Manville, though...sad face.

Actor: 4 of 5. Bardem, Bridges, Eisenberg, Firth, and Franco. Bardem in and Duvall out...again, we had Bardem as a possible spoiler.

Supporting Actress: 4 0f 5. Adams, Bonham Carter, Leo, Steinfeld, Weaver. In the last spot-Weaver. We had it as a dead heat with Mila Kunis.

Supporting Actor: 4 of 5. Bale, Hawkes, Renner, Ruffalo, and Rush. Hawkes in for Garfield. Yes!

Adapted Screenplay: 5 of 5. 127, TSN, TS3, True, Winter's

Original Screenplay: 5 of 5. Another Year (yea!), Fighter, Inception, Kids, TKS. A notoriously difficult pair of categories and The Clearinghouse got all 10 writing nominees. A little smug.

Animated: 3 of 3. Dragon, TS3 and THE ILLUSIONIST. Again...smug.

Foreign: 4 of 5. Biutiful, Dogtooth, In a Better World, Incendies, Outside the Law. Law in and S. Africa's "Life, Above All" out.

Doc: 2 of 5. One of our two worst categories. Exit thru the Gift Shop, Gasland, INSIDE JOB, Resterpo, Waste Land. The Big stunner is the absence of "Waiting for Superman."

Art Direction: 4 of 5. Alice, Harry, Inception, TKS, True. Harry for "Shutter Island"..though not really a surprise.

Cinematography: 4 of 5. Swan, Inception, TKS, TSN, True. TKS for 127 Hours...yes, that's a surprise.

Costume: 4 of 5. Alice, I am Love, TKS, Tempest, True. I am Love in for Black Swan...yes, also a surprise. One of the biggest of the day.

Film Editing: 4 of 5. Swan, Fighter, TKS, 127, TSN. King's Speech in, Inception out. A stunner and one of four or five "signs" that The King's Speech is actually the favorite to win Best Picture now. More on the "signs" below.

Makeup: 1 of 3. Barney's Version, The Way Back, The Wolfman. Barney and way Back in Alice and True Grit out. The OC was not good here, but also not awful. We had Barney and The Way Back listed as possible spoilers.

Original Score: 4 of 5. Dragon, Inception, TKS, 127, TSN. 127 Hours in and Never Let Me Go out. We did have 127 Hours listed as a possible.

Original Song: 3 of 4. Country Strong, Tangled, 127, TS3. Weirdly only 4 nominees. Country Strong in and Burlesque and Superman out.

Sound Edit: 4 of 5. Inception, TS3, Tron, True, Unstoppable. Unstop in for 127. We had Unstop as a possible.

Sound Mix: 3 of 5. Inception, TKS, Salt, TSN, True. Salt and King's in for Swan and Tron. Salt is a stunner and another "sign" that TKS may be the frontrunner.

Visual FX: 4 of 5. Alice, Harry, Hereafter, Inception, Iron Man 2. Hereafter stuns Tron.

Signs that THE KING'S SPEECH might be your frontrunner...Most nominations, Nominated for Film Editing (almost always a necessity for a film to win Best Picture is an accompanying nomination in Editing), Cinematography and SOUND MIXING??? Really????

Conventional (quick) wisdom is that The King's Speech wins Best Picture and several others and The Social Network's Fincher wins director.

Coming soon to the OC...we handicap the field of nominees for your Oscar winners.

The Oscar Clearinghouse #7 Re-Post. Telluride Film and the 83rd Academy Awards

Because of some issues I have decided to re-post the Clearinghouse from this morning.

It's been four and a half months since the Telluride Film Festival concluded and after the long awards season march the Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning. Here is the latest compilation of Oscar prognosticator's wisdom with our focus on the films that played as a part of the Telluride Film Festival in 2010. Categories have been limited to the appropriate number of nominees and three possible spoilers. TFF #37 films listed in CAPS AND BOLD.

Information collated from: Rope of Silicon, Incontention.com, Scott Feinberg, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Film Misery, The Gurus of Gold from Movie City News, The Awards Circuit and Film Experience.

Best Picture: 8 films seem like locks: THE KING'S SPEECH, BLACK SWAN, The Social Network, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, Inception and True Grit. 127 HOURS has actually solidified its chances in the last couple of weeks making it a probable nominee. It looks like that the last spot is between The Town and Winter's Bone with Bone having the inside track. The only other films with a prayer of cracking the Ten Nominees are Blue Valentine and ANOTHER YEAR, but it's the slimmest of chances.
If I had a ballot: See my top ten below. Suffice it to say (as I have been) that "The Social Network," "Toy Story 3," and "The Kids Are All Right" are over-rated.

Best Director: David Fincher/The Social Network and David O. Russell/The Fighter appear to be locks with TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN and Christopher Nolan/Inception looking very much like the other three nominees. If there is a surprise it would be (In order of likelihood) The Coen Brothers/True Grit, DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS or MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR.
If I had a ballot: Coens in and Russell OR Fincher out.

Best Actress: NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN and Annette Bening/The Kids Are All Right have been locks for months. Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone appears to have moved into that status as of the last two weeks. The other two spots look to go Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole and Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine. Three women who could intrude (in order of their chances) are: LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, Julianne Moore/The Kids Are All Right or a late charging Hilary Swank/Conviction.
If I had a ballot: Don't know that I'd do much different here...maybe move Manville to supporting, but that category is already filled with great work.

Best Actor: Locks: COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS. Very Likely the other three are: Robert Duvall/Get Low, Jeff Bridges/True Grit and Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network. Realistically, if a surprise occurs it would be Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL or Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter.
If I had a ballot: Eisenberg out for Leonardo DiCaprio in "Shutter Island."

Supporting Actress: (Still the most intriguing category) Two locks are Melissa Leo/The Fighter and HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH. Near locks are Amy Adams/The Fighter and Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit (Steinfeld would be a lock, but she's getting shaded into the Best Actress category by a couple of Oscar predictors...Hmmmm). And the last spot is an arm wrestling match between Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom and MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN (my bet is on Kunis). Only two other women might have a shot at a nomination: Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham and Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole.
If I had a ballot: I'm OK here if Kunis gets in.

Supporting Actor: Three men seem to have nominations assured. They are Christian Bale/The Fighter, GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH and Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are All Right. The last two spots look to be comfortably in the hands of Andrew Garfield/The Social Network and Jeremy Renner/The Town. Those that might sneak in are: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction or Matt Damon/True Grit.
If I had a ballot: Hawkes in for Renner, Ruffalo or Garfield. And I would add that I'd be voting for both Ed Harris and Colin Farrell from THE WAY BACK.

Adapted Screenplay: Locks: Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network, Michael Arndt/Toy Story 3, Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini/Winter's Bone. The other two nominees would appear to be Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit and DANNY BOYLE & SIMON BEAUFOY/127 HOURS. The three most likely spoilers are: Ben Affleck, Peter Craig & Aaron Stockard/The Town. David Lindsay-Abaire/Rabbit Hole and Roman Polanski & Robert Harris/The Ghost Writer.
If I had a ballot: Let this category stand.

Original Screenplay: Locks are: DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH, Christopher Nolan/Inception and Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg/The Kids Are All Right. Also likely nominees are: Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson/The Fighter and MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR. Three which could surprise are: Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curits & Cami Delavigne/Blue Valentine, MARK HEYMAN, ANDRES HEINZ & JOHN J. MC LAUGHLIN/BLACK SWAN, or Chris Provenzano & C. Gaby Mitchell/Get Low. Personally, I think Black Swan gets in instead of The Fighter and if I had a ballot I would certainly vote it in over "The Kids Are All Right."

Animated Film: Locks: Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon. Probable: THE ILLUSIONIST. Possible spoilers: Tangled, Despicable Me, Megamind. (Parenthetical comment: What a switch in the last 2 weeks as "The Illusionist" has surged ahead of "Tangled" to look like the third nominee. 14 days ago, "Tangled" looked like a cinch.)

Foreign Film: Locks: Nada. Probable: INCENDIES/CANADA, BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, In a Better World/Denmark, Life, Above All/South Africa and Dogtooth/Greece. Possible spoilers...any of the other 4 films still alive after the Academy cut the foreign list down to 9. (from Japan, Sweden, Spain and Algeria). The stunner was the exclusion of France's "OF GODS AND MEN."
Documentary: Only Lock: INSIDE JOB. Other probable nominees: Waiting for Superman, The Tillman Story, Resterpo and Client 9. Possible spoilers: The Waste Land, Exit Through the Gift Shop and The Lottery.

Film Editing: Locks: Inception, The Social Network, The Fighter. Likely: BLACK SWAN and 127 HOURS. Could Slide in: THE KING'S SPEECH, Shutter Island, True Grit.

Cinematography: Locks: Inception and True Grit. Likely: BLACK SWAN, The Social Network and 127 HOURS. Spoilers: Shutter Island, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE KING'S SPEECH.

Art Direction: Locks: Alice in Wonderland, Inception and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: Shutter Island and True Grit. Possible spoilers: Tron:Legacy and Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE WAY BACK.

Original Score: Locks: Inception is the only lock in this category. Probable nominees are: The Social Network, How to Train Your Dragon, THE KING'S SPEECH and NEVER LET ME GO. Possible spoilers: 127 HOURS, The Ghost Writer and True Grit.

Original Song: Locks: "I See the Light"/Tangled, "Shine"/Waiting for Superman, "We Belong Together"/Toy Story 3, and "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me"/Burlesque. The other likely nominee is "IF I RISE"/127 HOURS. Possible spoilers: "Coming Home"/Country Strong, "Despicable Me"/Despicable Me or "CHASON ILLUSIONIST"/THE ILLUSIONIST.

Costuming: Locks: Alice in Wonderland and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Tempest. Spoilers: Burlesque, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, Made in Dagenham.

Sound Editing: Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: 127 HOURS, Tron:Legacy, True Grit and Toy Story 3. Potential spoilers: How to Train Your Dragon, Iron Man 2 or Unstoppable.

Sound Mixing: Again, Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Social Network and Tron:Legacy. Potential surprises: Unstoppable, Iron Man 2 or Toy Story 3.

Makeup (3 noms only): Locks: Alice in Wonderland and The Wolfman. Other likely nominee: True Grit. Spoilers: THE WAY BACK, Jonah Hex, Barney's Version.

Visual Effects: Locks: Inception and Tron:Legacy. Likely nominees: Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, and Iron Man 2. Potential spoilers: Scott Pilgrim or Hereafter.

And, of course, there will be nominations for short form live action, animation and documentary.

The Breakdown: If the Clearinghouse nails it Telluride #37 films earn 30 nominations with 11 more potentially in the mix as spoilers.

The most nominated film(s) will be (according to The Clearinghouse): True Grit and Inception with 10 each (Grit is in play in four other categories and so could end up being the most nominated on its own). The rest of the multiple nominees look like this (with additional possible nominations in parenthesis):
10 nominations: True Grit (4), Inception (0)
9 nominations: THE KING'S SPEECH (2), The Social Network (0)
8 nominations: BLACK SWAN (2)
7 nominations: 127 HOURS (2), The Fighter (1)
4 nominations: The Kids Are All Right (1), Toy Story 3 (1), Alice in Wonderland (0)

Other TFF #37 films earning nominations: ANOTHER YEAR-1, BIUTIFUL-1, INCENDIES-1, NEVER LET ME GO-1, THE ILLUSIONIST-1, INSIDE JOB-1.

And finally, my top ten films for 2010...if I was voting, this would be my Best Picture ballot:
10) The Fighter
9) THE ILLUSIONIST
8) THE WAY BACK
7) Shutter Island
6) 127 HOURS
5) ANOTHER YEAR
4) BLACK SWAN
3) Inception
2) THE KING'S SPEECH
1) True Grit

Back tomorrow with the breakdown and analysis of what the nominations have been....

The Oscar Clearinghouse #7 (Telluride Film)- FINAL Pre-Nomination Edition

It's been four and a half months since the Telluride Film Festival concluded and after the long awards season march the Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning. Here is the latest compilation of Oscar prognosticator's wisdom with our focus on the films that played as a part of the Telluride Film Festival in 2010. Categories have been limited to the appropriate number of nominees and three possible spoilers. TFF #37 films listed in CAPS AND BOLD.

Information collated from: Rope of Silicon, Incontention.com, Scott Feinberg, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Film Misery, The Gurus of Gold from Movie City News, The Awards Circuit and Film Experience.

Best Picture: 8 films seem like locks: THE KING'S SPEECH, BLACK SWAN, The Social Network, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, Inception and True Grit. 127 HOURS has actually solidified its chances in the last couple of weeks making it a probable nominee. It looks like that the last spot is between The Town and Winter's Bone with Bone having the inside track. The only other films with a prayer of cracking the Ten Nominees are Blue Valentine and ANOTHER YEAR, but it's the slimmest of chances.

If I had a ballot: See my top ten below. Suffice it to say (as I have been) that "The Social Network," "Toy Story 3," and "The Kids Are All Right" are over-rated.

Best Director: David Fincher/The Social Network and David O. Russell/The Fighter appear to be locks with TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN and Christopher Nolan/Inception looking very much like the other three nominees. If there is a surprise it would be (In order of likelihood) The Coen Brothers/True Grit, DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS or MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR.

If I had a ballot: Coens in and Russell OR Fincher out.

Best Actress: NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN and Annette Bening/The Kids Are All Right have been locks for months. Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone appears to have moved into that status as of the last two weeks. The other two spots look to go Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole and Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine. Three women who could intrude (in order of their chances) are: LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, Julianne Moore/The Kids Are All Right or a late charging Hilary Swank/Conviction.

If I had a ballot: Don't know that I'd do much different here...maybe move Manville to supporting, but that category is already filled with great work.

Best Actor: Locks: COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS. Very Likely the other three are: Robert Duvall/Get Low, Jeff Bridges/True Grit and Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network. Realistically, if a surprise occurs it would be Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL or Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter.

If I had a ballot: Eisenberg out for Leonardo DiCaprio in "Shutter Island."

Supporting Actress: (Still the most intriguing category) Two locks are Melissa Leo/The Fighter and HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH. Near locks are Amy Adams/The Fighter and Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit (Steinfeld would be a lock, but she's getting shaded into the Best Actress category by a couple of Oscar predictors...Hmmmm). And the last spot is an arm wrestling match between Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom and MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN (my bet is on Kunis). Only two other women might have a shot at a nomination: Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham and Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole.

If I had a ballot: I'm OK here if Kunis gets in.

Supporting Actor: Three men seem to have nominations assured. They are Christian Bale/The Fighter, GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH and Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are All Right. The last two spots look to be comfortably in the hands of Andrew Garfield/The Social Network and Jeremy Renner/The Town. Those that might sneak in are: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction or Matt Damon/True Grit.

If I had a ballot: Hawkes in for Renner, Ruffalo or Garfield. And I would add that I'd be voting for both Ed Harris and Colin Farrell from THE WAY BACK.

Adapted Screenplay: Locks: Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network, Michael Arndt/Toy Story 3, Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini/Winter's Bone. The other two nominees would appear to be Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit and DANNY BOYLE & SIMON BEAUFOY/127 HOURS. The three most likely spoilers are: Ben Affleck, Peter Craig & Aaron Stockard/The Town. David Lindsay-Abaire/Rabbit Hole and Roman Polanski & Robert Harris/The Ghost Writer.

If I had a ballot: Let this category stand.

Original Screenplay: Locks are: DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH, Christopher Nolan/Inception and Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg/The Kids Are All Right. Also likely nominees are: Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson/The Fighter and MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR. Three which could surprise are: Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curits & Cami Delavigne/Blue Valentine, MARK HEYMAN, ANDRES HEINZ & JOHN J. MC LAUGHLIN/BLACK SWAN, or Chris Provenzano & C. Gaby Mitchell/Get Low. Personally, I think Black Swan gets in instead of The Fighter and if I had a ballot I would certainly vote it in over "The Kids Are All Right."

Animated Film: Locks: Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon. Probable: THE ILLUSIONIST. Possible spoilers: Tangled, Despicable Me, Megamind. (Parenthetical comment: What a switch in the last 2 weeks as "The Illusionist" has surged ahead of "Tangled" to look like the third nominee. 14 days ago, "Tangled" looked like a cinch.)

Foreign Film: Locks: Nada. Probable: INCENDIES/CANADA, BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, In a Better World/Denmark, Life, Above All/South Africa and Dogtooth/Greece. Possible spoilers...any of the other 4 films still alive after the Academy cut the foreign list down to 9. (from Japan, Sweden, Spain and Algeria). The stunner was the exclusion of France's "OF GODS AND MEN."

Documentary: Only Lock: INSIDE JOB. Other probable nominees: Waiting for Superman, The Tillman Story, Resterpo and Client 9. Possible spoilers: The Waste Land, Exit Through the Gift Shop and The Lottery.

Film Editing: Locks: Inception, The Social Network, The Fighter. Likely: BLACK SWAN and 127 HOURS. Could Slide in: THE KING'S SPEECH, Shutter Island, True Grit.

Cinematography: Locks: Inception and True Grit. Likely: BLACK SWAN, The Social Network and 127 HOURS. Spoilers: Shutter Island, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE KING'S SPEECH.

Art Direction: Locks: Alice in Wonderland, Inception and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: Shutter Island and True Grit. Possible spoilers: Tron:Legacy and Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE WAY BACK.

Original Score: Locks: Inception is the only lock in this category. Probable nominees are: The Social Network, How to Train Your Dragon, THE KING'S SPEECH and NEVER LET ME GO. Possible spoilers: 127 HOURS, The Ghost Writer and True Grit.

Original Song: Locks: "I See the Light"/Tangled, "Shine"/Waiting for Superman, "We Belong Together"/Toy Story 3, and "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me"/Burlesque. The other likely nominee is "IF I RISE"/127 HOURS. Possible spoilers: "Coming Home"/Country Strong, "Despicable Me"/Despicable Me or "CHASON ILLUSIONIST"/THE ILLUSIONIST.

Costuming: Locks: Alice in Wonderland and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Tempest. Spoilers: Burlesque, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, Made in Dagenham.

Sound Editing: Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: 127 HOURS, Tron:Legacy, True Grit and Toy Story 3. Potential spoilers: How to Train Your Dragon, Iron Man 2 or Unstoppable.

Sound Mixing: Again, Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Social Network and Tron:Legacy. Potential surprises: Unstoppable, Iron Man 2 or Toy Story 3.

Makeup (3 noms only): Locks: Alice in Wonderland and The Wolfman. Other likely nominee: True Grit. Spoilers: THE WAY BACK, Jonah Hex, Barney's Version.

Visual Effects: Locks: Inception and Tron:Legacy. Likely nominees: Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, and Iron Man 2. Potential spoilers: Scott Pilgrim or Hereafter.

And, of course, there will be nominations for short form live action, animation and documentary.

The Breakdown: If the Clearinghouse nails it Telluride #37 films earn 30 nominations with 11 more potentially in the mix as spoilers.

The most nominated film(s) will be (according to The Clearinghouse): True Grit and Inception with 10 each (Grit is in play in four other categories and so could end up being the most nominated on its own). The rest of the multiple nominees look like this (with additional possible nominations in parenthesis):

10 nominations: True Grit (4), Inception (0)

9 nominations: THE KING'S SPEECH (2), The Social Network (0)

8 nominations: BLACK SWAN (2)

7 nominations: 127 HOURS (2), The Fighter (1)

4 nominations: The Kids Are All Right (1), Toy Story 3 (1), Alice in Wonderland (0)

Other TFF #37 films earning nominations: ANOTHER YEAR-1, BIUTIFUL-1, INCENDIES-1, NEVER LET ME GO-1, THE ILLUSIONIST-1, INSIDE JOB-1.

And finally, my top ten films for 2010...if I was voting, this would be my Best Picture ballot:

10) The Fighter

9) THE ILLUSIONIST

8) THE WAY BACK

7) Shutter Island

6) 127 HOURS

5) ANOTHER YEAR

4) BLACK SWAN

3) Inception

2) THE KING'S SPEECH

1) True Grit

Back tomorrow with the breakdown and analysis of what the nominations have been....

Nominations are Coming! Telluride Film and The Oscar Clearinghouse

Will Geoffrey Rush (seen here outside the Chuck Jones Theater at 2010's Telluride Film Festival) wake up Tuesday morning to an Oscar nomination? The signs say...Yes!

Coming Monday on Michael's Telluride Film Blog...final Oscar nomination predictions from The Oscar Clearinghouse. Will TFF#37 films earn 30 or more noms? We find out Tuesday morning. The announcement is scheduled to take place at 8:30 am Eastern, 7:30 am Central...5:30 am on the west coast.

Brits, Telluride Film #37 and The OC

The British version of the Academy (BRITISH ACADEMY OF FILM AND TELEVISION ARTS or BAFTA) nominations were announced early this morning. TFF #37 was strongly represented. Here are their nominations with Telluride films in Bold and Large

(Thanks to Incontention.com)

Best Film: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “The Social Network” “True Grit”

Best British Film: “Another Year” “Four Lions” “The King’s Speech” “Made In Dagenham” “127 Hours”

Best Director: Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan” Christopher Nolan, “Inception” Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech” Danny Boyle, “127 Hours” David Fincher, “The Social Network”

Best Actor: Javier Bardem, “Biutiful” Jeff Bridges, “True Grit” Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network” Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech” James Franco, “127 Hours”

Best Actress: Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right” Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right” Natalie Portman, “Black Swan” Noomi Rapace, “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”

Best Supporting Actor: Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network” Christian Bale, “The Fighter” Pete Postlethwaite, “The Town” Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech” Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, “The Fighter” Barbara Hershey, “Black Swan” Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech” Lesley Manville, “Another Year” Miranda Richardson, “Made In Dagenham”

Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” “127 Hours” “The Social Network” “Toy Story 3″ “True Grit”

Best Original Screenplay: “Black Swan” “The Fighter” “Inception” “The Kids Are All Right” “The King’s Speech”

Best Foreign Language Film: “Biutiful” “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” “I Am Love” “Of Gods and Men” “The Secret In Their Eyes”

Best Animated Film: “Despicable Me” “How To Train Your Dragon” “Toy Story 3″

Best Cinematography: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours” “True Grit”

Best Production Design: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “True Grit”

Best Costume Design: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “The King’s Speech” “Made In Dagenham” “True Grit”

Best Editing: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours” “The Social Network”

Best Make Up & Hair: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1″ “The King’s Speech” “Made In Dagenham”

Best Original Music: “Alice In Wonderland” “How To Train Your Dragon” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours”

Best Sound: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours” “True Grit”

Best Special Visual Effects: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1″ “Inception” “Toy Story 3″

Rising Star Award: Gemma Arterton Andrew Garfield Tom Hardy Aaron Johnson Emma Stone

Carl Foreman Award: (best debut by a British writer, director or producer)Clio Barnard, “The Arbor” Banksy and Jaime D’Cruz, “Exit Through the Gift Shop” Chris Morris, “Four Lions” Gareth Edwards, “Monsters” Nick Whitfield, “Skeletons”

The Breakdown:

THE KING'S SPEECH-14

BLACK SWAN-12

Inception-9

127 HOURS and True Grit-8

The Social Network-6

Kids Are All Right and Made in Dagenham-4

The Fighter and Girl with the Dragon Tattoo-3

ANOTHER YEAR and BIUTIFUL-2

OF GODS AND MEN-1

Telluride rakes 39 BAFTA nominations.

Comment: Maybe I am an anglophile, because this seems a lot more accurate to me than the conventional wisdom here in the States concerning the likely dominance of The Social Network.

A couple of interesting notes...Lesley Manville (Another Year) is nominated in Supporting Actress...which is where she should be instead of lead, which is where Oscar prognosticators have been putting her. Similarly, Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) is nominated as a Lead rather than Supporting which is also opposite of where she's being listed here in the US of A.

Barbara Hershey gets a BAFTA Supporting nomination for "Black Swan" instead of Mila Kunis who has had the majority of Oscar buzz in this country.

"Tamara Drewe's" Gemma Arterton and "Never Let Me Go's" Andrew Garfield are nominated as "Rising Stars."

The BAFTA Awards will be revealed Feb. 13.