The Oscar Clearinghouse/Telluride Film #37 and Tech/Doc/Foreign Oscars

Ten days...

Here is the latest compilation of the smartest of the smart when it comes to Oscar prediction for the 13 categories outside the Big 8 (we haven't included the Short Film nominees...not enough experts weighing in to get an objective conclusion). Data was gathered from Incontention.com, Awards Daily, Scott Feinberg and the Gurus of Gold from Movie City News.

Telluride #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD.

Film Editing: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) The Fighter, 4) THE BLACK SWAN, 5) 127 HOURS.
Comment: A relatively close race between the top two. Although, you can make a pretty good case for any of the 5.

Cinematography: 1) True Grit, 2) Inception, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) BLACK SWAN, 5) The Social Network.
Comment: Roger Deakins was thought to be a shoo-in to get his first Oscar for "True Grit" and he's still a pretty solid favorite. But Wally Pfister's ASC win for "Inception" last weekend has made this a tighter race than expected.

Art Direction: 1) THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Alice in Wonderland, 3) Inception, 4) True Grit, 5) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows.
Comment: A pretty close race between King's and Alice. And Inception winning wouldn't be a shocker either.

Foreign Film: 1) INCENDIES/CANADA, 2) In a Better World/Denmark, 3) BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, 4) Outside the Law/Algeria, 5) Dogtooth/Greece.
Comment: A volatile category that any of the top three contenders could win.

Animated Film: 1) Toy Story 3, 2) How to Train a Dragon, 3) THE ILLUSIONIST.
Comment: TS3 has had this locked up for months.

Documentary: 1) INSIDE JOB, 2) Exit Through the Gift Shop, 3) Restrepo, 4) Waste Land, 5) Gasland.
Comment: This seems to be a two horse race between the top two.

Costume: 1) Alice in Wonderland, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) True Grit, 4) I Am Love, 5) The Tempest.
Comment: This category mirrors Art Direction...Alice or TKS...

Score: 1) (TIE) THE KING'S SPEECH and The Social Network, 3) Inception, 4) 127 HOURS, 5) How to Train Your Dragon.
Comment: Very close between TKS and TSN and an Inception win here wouldn't surprise either.

Song 1) Toy Story 3, 2) Tangled, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) Country Strong.
Comment: TS3 is likely, but not a lock to win this. Actually, this might be the most tightly bunched category from top to bottom out of the 21 major categories.

Sound Editing: 1) Inception, 2) True Grit, 3) Toy Story 3, 4) Tron: Legacy, 5) Unstoppable.
Comment: Inception has this locked up.

Sound Mixing: 1) Inception, 2) The Social Network, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) True Grit, 5) Salt.
Comment: Again, Inception is the prohibitive favorite.

Visual Effects: 1) Inception, 2) Alice in Wonderland, 3) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, 4) Hereafter, 5) Iron Man 2
Comment: Inception in a walk.

Makeup: 1) The Wolfman, 2) THE WAY BACK, 3) Barney's Version.
Comment: Wolfman has a substantial edge here.

Sooooo, if the Clearinghouse is 100 % accurate (Ha!)...This is the what the Oscar winning
breakdown would be on Feb. 27th:

The King's Speech wins 5 or 6 depending on Score ( and could get a 7th for Costume).

Inception wins 3.

The Social Network wins 2 or 3 (also depending on Score and could steal a 3rd or 4th if Fincher snags the Directing prize).

The Fighter and Toy Story 3 win 2 apiece.

And one Oscar each for: True Grit, Incendies, Inside Job, Alice in Wonderland, The Wolfman, and Black Swan.

Categories that are fluid: Director, Supporting Actress, Art Direction, Costume, Film Editing, Score, Song, Documentary and Foreign Film.

More next week...

Oscar 83 and Telluride Film #37/The Oscar Clearinghouse

Telluride #37 with 32 Oscar nominations. The Clearinghouse gets 85 out 105 in 21 categories.

TFF #37 films with Oscar Noms:

THE KING'S SPEECH-12

127 HOURS-6

BLACK SWAN-5

BIUTIFUL-2

ANOTHER YEAR-1

THE WAY BACK-1

INSIDE JOB-1

INCENDIES-1

THE ILLUSIONIST-1

POSTER GIRL-1

GOD OF LOVE-1

THE KING'S SPEECH over-performed getting 12 nominations instead of the anticipated 9. True Grit hit its expected 10. BLACK SWAN (5 instead of the expected 7), 127 HOURS (6 instead of 7)and Inception (8 instead of 10) underperformed.

By category, here's how The Clearinghouse did.

Picture: Swan, Fighter, Inception, Kids, TKS, 127, TSN, TS3, True and Winter's. Clearinghouse goes 10 for 10. One of 4 categories that we hit 100% .

Director: 4 of 5. Aronofsky, Russell, Hooper, Fincher and The Coens. Coens a small surprise. Nolan's exclusion a BIG SURPRISE. Though we had The Coens as the first likely suspects if one of the predicted five didn't make the cut. I just never thought it would be Nolan that got the short end.

Actress: 5 of 5. Bening, Kidman, Lawrence, Portman, Williams. No Manville, though...sad face.

Actor: 4 of 5. Bardem, Bridges, Eisenberg, Firth, and Franco. Bardem in and Duvall out...again, we had Bardem as a possible spoiler.

Supporting Actress: 4 0f 5. Adams, Bonham Carter, Leo, Steinfeld, Weaver. In the last spot-Weaver. We had it as a dead heat with Mila Kunis.

Supporting Actor: 4 of 5. Bale, Hawkes, Renner, Ruffalo, and Rush. Hawkes in for Garfield. Yes!

Adapted Screenplay: 5 of 5. 127, TSN, TS3, True, Winter's

Original Screenplay: 5 of 5. Another Year (yea!), Fighter, Inception, Kids, TKS. A notoriously difficult pair of categories and The Clearinghouse got all 10 writing nominees. A little smug.

Animated: 3 of 3. Dragon, TS3 and THE ILLUSIONIST. Again...smug.

Foreign: 4 of 5. Biutiful, Dogtooth, In a Better World, Incendies, Outside the Law. Law in and S. Africa's "Life, Above All" out.

Doc: 2 of 5. One of our two worst categories. Exit thru the Gift Shop, Gasland, INSIDE JOB, Resterpo, Waste Land. The Big stunner is the absence of "Waiting for Superman."

Art Direction: 4 of 5. Alice, Harry, Inception, TKS, True. Harry for "Shutter Island"..though not really a surprise.

Cinematography: 4 of 5. Swan, Inception, TKS, TSN, True. TKS for 127 Hours...yes, that's a surprise.

Costume: 4 of 5. Alice, I am Love, TKS, Tempest, True. I am Love in for Black Swan...yes, also a surprise. One of the biggest of the day.

Film Editing: 4 of 5. Swan, Fighter, TKS, 127, TSN. King's Speech in, Inception out. A stunner and one of four or five "signs" that The King's Speech is actually the favorite to win Best Picture now. More on the "signs" below.

Makeup: 1 of 3. Barney's Version, The Way Back, The Wolfman. Barney and way Back in Alice and True Grit out. The OC was not good here, but also not awful. We had Barney and The Way Back listed as possible spoilers.

Original Score: 4 of 5. Dragon, Inception, TKS, 127, TSN. 127 Hours in and Never Let Me Go out. We did have 127 Hours listed as a possible.

Original Song: 3 of 4. Country Strong, Tangled, 127, TS3. Weirdly only 4 nominees. Country Strong in and Burlesque and Superman out.

Sound Edit: 4 of 5. Inception, TS3, Tron, True, Unstoppable. Unstop in for 127. We had Unstop as a possible.

Sound Mix: 3 of 5. Inception, TKS, Salt, TSN, True. Salt and King's in for Swan and Tron. Salt is a stunner and another "sign" that TKS may be the frontrunner.

Visual FX: 4 of 5. Alice, Harry, Hereafter, Inception, Iron Man 2. Hereafter stuns Tron.

Signs that THE KING'S SPEECH might be your frontrunner...Most nominations, Nominated for Film Editing (almost always a necessity for a film to win Best Picture is an accompanying nomination in Editing), Cinematography and SOUND MIXING??? Really????

Conventional (quick) wisdom is that The King's Speech wins Best Picture and several others and The Social Network's Fincher wins director.

Coming soon to the OC...we handicap the field of nominees for your Oscar winners.

Nominations are Coming! Telluride Film and The Oscar Clearinghouse

Will Geoffrey Rush (seen here outside the Chuck Jones Theater at 2010's Telluride Film Festival) wake up Tuesday morning to an Oscar nomination? The signs say...Yes!

Coming Monday on Michael's Telluride Film Blog...final Oscar nomination predictions from The Oscar Clearinghouse. Will TFF#37 films earn 30 or more noms? We find out Tuesday morning. The announcement is scheduled to take place at 8:30 am Eastern, 7:30 am Central...5:30 am on the west coast.

Telluride Film #37 and Foreign Films/The Oscar Clearinghouse

The Academy has announced its short list of 9 foreign films that are still in contention for the final five nominations that will be announced on Jan. 25.

Here are the nine (courtesy of Incontention.com) with TFF #37 films in Bold and Large:

Algeria (“Outside the Law”)
Canada (“Incendies”)
Denmark (“In a Better World”)
Greece (“Dogtooth”)
Japan (“Confessions”)
Mexico (“Biutiful”)
South Africa (“Life Above All”)
Spain (“Even the Rain”)
Sweden (“Simple Simon”)

A real surprise among Oscar predictors this morning was the absence of France's "of Gods and Men" which also played as part of this year's festival.

Tellurdie Film Festival/The Oscar Clearinghouse-Tech and More

Less than three weeks until Oscar nominations are announced and here's a look at the trends in the Technical/Doc/Foreign/Animated categories....We'll forgo the Short Subject categories (Live, Animated, Doc)...TFF #37 in CAPS AND BOLD

ART DIRECTION: 1) Inception, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Alice in Wonderland, 4) Shutter Island, 5) True Grit

Players: Tron:Legacy, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows

CINEMATOGRAPHY: 1) True Grit, 2) Inception, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) BLACK SWAN, 5) Shutter Island

Players: THE WAY BACK, The Social Network

Notes: Roger Deakins...please.

COSTUME: 1) Alice in Wonderland, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) The Tempest, 4) True Grit, 5) Burlesque

Players: Get Low, Made in Dagenham

FILM EDITING: 1) The Social Network, 2) Inception, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) BLACK SWAN, 5) True Grit

Players: The Fighter

MAKEUP: 1) Alice in Wonderland, 2) The Wolfman, 3) BLACK SWAN

ORIGINAL SCORE: 1) Inception, 2) How to Train Your Dragon, 3) NEVER LET ME GO, 4) THE KING'S SPEECH, 5) True Grit

Players: The Ghost Writer

ORIGINAL SONG: 1) Tangled, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) Waiting for Superman, 4) Burlesque, 5) 127 HOURS

Player: Country Strong

SOUND EDITING: 1) Inception, 2) 127 HOURS, 3) Tron:Legacy, 4) Toy Story 3, 5) How to Train Your Dragon

Players: Iran Man 2, Unstoppable

SOUND MIXING: 1) Inception, 2) True Grit, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) Tron:Legacy, 5) Unstoppable

Players: Iron Man 2, BLACK SWAN, Toy Story 3

VISUAL EFFECTS: 1) Inception, 2) Tron:Legacy, 3) Iron Man 2, 4) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, 5) Alice in Wonderland

ANIMATED FEATURE: 1) Toy Story 3, 2) How to Train Your Dragon, 3) Tangled

Players: THE ILLUSIONIST, Despicable Me

DOCUMENTARY: 1) INSIDE JOB, 2) Waiting for Superman, 3) The Tillman Story, 4) Wasteland, 5) Restrepo

Players: Exit Through the Gift Shop, Gasland

FOREIGN FILM: 1) Outside the Law/Algeria, 2) OF GODS AND MEN/FRANCE, 3) INCENDIES/CANADA, 4) Life Above All/South Africa,5) Son of Babylon/Iraq

Players: BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, In a Better World/Denmark

Notes:

If the above were 100% accurate TFF #37 will have 30 nominations and 13 other possibles (including the Big 8 categories).

Breakdown by TFF #37:

The King's Speech and 127 Hours 9 noms and 0 possibles

Black Swan 6 noms and 4 possibles

Another Year 2 noms and 2 possible

Inside Job 1 nom

Never Let Me Go 1 nom

The Way Back 4 possibles

Biutiful 2 possibles

The Illusionist 1 possible

Foreign Films 2 noms (Of Gods and Men and Incendies) and 1 possible (Biutiful)

Th Clearinghouse says that the films with the most nominations would be (if the nominations were announced today and irrespective of TFF #37):

1) True Grit 10 (with another possible)

2) Inception 10

3) THE KING'S SPEECH 9

3) 127 HOURS 9

5) BLACK SWAN 6 (with 4 more possible)

6) The Social Network 6 (with another possible)

7) Toy Story 3 5 (with another possible)

8) The Fighter 4 (with 3 more possible)

9) The Kids Are All Right 4 (with 2 more possible)

10) Winter's Bone 3 (with 2 more possible)

Others with 4 or more possibles:

THE WAY BACK, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole, Get Low, Alice in Wonderland, Tron: Legacy, How to Train Your Dragon...Honorable Mention: Shutter Island and The Town.

Next Week...an updated Big 8 Categories.

Sources: InContention.com, Film Misery, The Awards Circuit

The OC Looks at the NBR

Lesley Manville wins NBR Best Actress for Mike Leigh's "Another Year." Does it boost her Oscar chances???

Here is the press release from the National Board of Review's announcement today TFGF#37 films are Big and Bold):

New York, NY – December 2, 2010 – The National Board of Review named The Social Network the 2010 Best Film of the Year. Directed by David Fincher, this timeless drama explores the moment at which Facebook, the most revolutionary social phenomenon of the new century, was invented and the resulting lawsuits. The film was released on October 1st by Columbia Pictures.
Below is a full list of the awards given by the National Board of Review:

Best Film: The Social Network
Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
Best Actor: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Best Actress: Lesley Manville, Another Year
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Best Foreign Language Film: Of Gods and Men
Best Documentary: Waiting for "Superman"
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Ensemble Cast: The Town
Breakthrough Performance: Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Best Directorial Debut: Sebastian Junger and Tim Hetherington, Restrepo
Spotlight Award: Sylvain Chomet and Jacques Tati, The Illusionist
Best Original Screenplay: Chris Sparling, Buried
Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Special Filmmaking Achievement Award: Sofia Coppola for writing, directing, and producing Somewhere
William K. Everson Film History Award: Leonard Maltin (not a film, but a Telluride fixture)
NBR Freedom of Expression: Fair Game, Conviction, Howl
Production Design Award: Dante Ferretti, Shutter Island

Ten Best Films
(in alphabetical order)
Another Year

The Fighter

Hereafter

Inception

The King’s Speech

Shutter Island

The Town

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Winter’s Bone

Five Best Foreign-Language Films
(in alphabetical order)

I Am Love

Incendies

Life, Above All

Soul Kitchen

White Material

Five Best Documentaries
(in alphabetical order)
A Film Unfinished

Inside Job

Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work

Restrepo

The Tillman Story

Top Ten Independent Films
(in alphabetical order)
Animal Kingdom

Buried

Fish Tank (TFF #36)

The Ghost Writer

Greenberg

Let Me In

Monsters

Please Give

Somewhere

Youth in Revolt

Boy, the NBR has swallowed "The Social Network" Kool-Aid.

Glad to see the accolades for "The King's Speech" and very glad for "Another Year" on the list of 10 and very pleased there is some recognition for "The Illusionist." I'm also happy for Mr. Leonard Maltin with whom I had a great conversation about 3D in film while in Telluride. Congratulations Mr. M!

...but no mention of "Black Swan," "The Way Back," or "127 Hours" seems criminal. Personally, I think that "TS3", and "Social Network" are pretty over-rated anyway (as is the NBR snubbed "Kids Are All Right").

Most Oscarologists don't think the NBR really is much of a harbinger or has much effect...I can only hope that's true.