And Finally, It's Oscar Time

Labor Day weekend 2010 in the San Juans of southwest Colorado seems like a long, long time ago. Since our incredible experience at the 37th Telluride Film Festival, Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Oscar Clearinghouse has been tracking the possible outcomes for tonight's Oscar presentation and now it's time for the final pre-Oscar run-down of what we expect to happen after crunching numbers from Movie City News' The Guru's of Gold, Incontention.com, Scott Feinberg, Awards Daily, Awards Circuit, The Gold Derby.Com and Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly. In all 24 categories (with TFF #37 in CAPS AND BOLD). And the Oscar will go to:

(Absolutely no real number crunching on these first three categories, so based on a limited range of "expert" opinion)

Short Doc: Killing in the Name

Short Animated: Madagascar: A Journey Diary

Short Live Action: GOD OF LOVE

Sound Mixing: The OC says: Inception...

Sound Editing: The OC says: Inception...

Visual Effects: The OC says: Inception...

Makeup: The OC says: The Wolfman...

And I have to agree.

Original Score: The OC says: Alexandre Desplat, THE KING'S SPEECH...

Original Song: The OC says: Randy Newman, "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3...

Again, I agree that this is what will happen, but, you could see The OC wrong in both of these categories pretty easily. In Score, there is still significant feeling for The Social Network and Inception. And in the Best Song category, you can find supporters in the Oscar prediction community for any of the four nominated songs.

Foreign Film: The OC says: In a Better World/Denmark

And I will agree...but it is a tiny, tiny favorite with INCENDIES/Canada and BIUTIFUL/Mexico very, very close.

Documentary: The OC says: INSIDE JOB...

Again, I'm buying this, but it's also a really tight category. Serious heat exists for the art doc Exit Through the Gift Shop (and the attendant curiosity as to what Banksy might try in accepting...or declining...or both? Undoubtedly it would be entertaining)...and just as it is for Best Song, each of the five nominees has some serious Oscar prognosticators on its side.

Animated Film: The OC (and everyone on the planet that tries to divine this stuff) says: Toy Story 3...

Uh...Yes.

Costume: The OC says: Alice in Wonderland...

THE KING'S SPEECH is a close second in our analysis, and it's my actual pick...my first divergence from The OC.

Art Direction: The OC says:THE KING'S SPEECH...

Yes. But watch out for Alice or Inception...they also have a lot of support here.

Film Editing: The OC says: The Social Network...

I'm going to agree, but you can make a good case for any of the other four nominees and if it turns into a TKS Sweep...who knows?

Cinematography: The OC says: Roger Deakins/True Grit...

Again...yes. Deakins should finally win an Oscar for his great camera work. And it was impressive in True Grit. Possible spoiler would be Wally Pfister for Inception.

THE BIG EIGHT CATEGORIES:

Adapted Screenplay: The OC says: Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network...

Not much doubt here.

Original Screenplay: The OC says: David Seidler/THE KING'S SPEECH...

Close to a lock

Supporting Actor: The OC says: Christian Bale/The Fighter...

Again, close to a lock...except if TKS is in sweep mode, which could force Geoffrey Rush into an acceptance speech.

Supporting Actress: The OC says: Melissa Leo/The Fighter...

The predictors have come back around to Leo after a brief stretch were she was perceived as having lost some momentum. But Leo has bounced back in the last ten days in the estimation of most Oscar pundits. Still, I'm going to buck The Clearinghouse. I'm going with Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit. And, as you might expect, here's the added caveat that Helena Bonham Carter could surprise here if the TKS sweep is more of a tsunami.

Actress: The OC says: Natalie Portman/BLACK SWAN...

Yes. And she should win it too. There's still some Oscar picker love for Annette Bening, but I don't think that it's going to happen for her tonight.

Actor: The OC says: Colin Firth/THE KING'S SPEECH.

Ummm...if Firth doesn't win, then the Academy needs to start looking for new accountants for the Oscars...because he only loses if they count it wrong or bribery is involved.

Director: Maybe this has become the hottest race of the night. Big support for a Best Picture/Best Director split in the Oscar pundit club. Also significant support for the notion that if a film is the Best Picture, then it's Director has to have been the best as well...and most years that is the path that Oscar follows.

The OC says: David Fincher/The Social Network...

I say: Tom Hooper/THE KING'S SPEECH

BEST PICTURE: THE OC SAYS: THE KING'S SPEECH...

And I agree.

If the OC is right:

THE KING'S SPEECH-5

The Social Network-3

Inception-3

The Fighter-2

Toy Story 3-2

One each for: BLACK SWAN, INSIDE JOB, True Grit, The Wolfman, Alice in Wonderland, and In a Better World.

TFF #37 total: 7 (maybe up to 2 more depending on the outcome in Short Film categories)

If I'm right:

THE KING'S SPEECH-7

Inception-3

True Grit-2

Toy Story 3-2

The Social Network-2

One each for: BLACK SWAN, INSIDE JOB, The Fighter, The Wolfman, In a Better World

TFF #37 total: 9 (and again, maybe a couple more in Short Films).

Comments anyone?

I'll be tweeting during the Oscar cast tonight if anyone is interested set your Twitter search for @Gort2 and follow me.

MTFB/The OC will have preliminary reaction tomorrow and more in depth response from my actual industry source types and Academy members Tuesday or Wednesday.

So, now, we wait.

The Oscar Clearinghouse/Telluride Film #37 and Tech/Doc/Foreign Oscars

Ten days...

Here is the latest compilation of the smartest of the smart when it comes to Oscar prediction for the 13 categories outside the Big 8 (we haven't included the Short Film nominees...not enough experts weighing in to get an objective conclusion). Data was gathered from Incontention.com, Awards Daily, Scott Feinberg and the Gurus of Gold from Movie City News.

Telluride #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD.

Film Editing: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) The Fighter, 4) THE BLACK SWAN, 5) 127 HOURS.
Comment: A relatively close race between the top two. Although, you can make a pretty good case for any of the 5.

Cinematography: 1) True Grit, 2) Inception, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) BLACK SWAN, 5) The Social Network.
Comment: Roger Deakins was thought to be a shoo-in to get his first Oscar for "True Grit" and he's still a pretty solid favorite. But Wally Pfister's ASC win for "Inception" last weekend has made this a tighter race than expected.

Art Direction: 1) THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Alice in Wonderland, 3) Inception, 4) True Grit, 5) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows.
Comment: A pretty close race between King's and Alice. And Inception winning wouldn't be a shocker either.

Foreign Film: 1) INCENDIES/CANADA, 2) In a Better World/Denmark, 3) BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, 4) Outside the Law/Algeria, 5) Dogtooth/Greece.
Comment: A volatile category that any of the top three contenders could win.

Animated Film: 1) Toy Story 3, 2) How to Train a Dragon, 3) THE ILLUSIONIST.
Comment: TS3 has had this locked up for months.

Documentary: 1) INSIDE JOB, 2) Exit Through the Gift Shop, 3) Restrepo, 4) Waste Land, 5) Gasland.
Comment: This seems to be a two horse race between the top two.

Costume: 1) Alice in Wonderland, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) True Grit, 4) I Am Love, 5) The Tempest.
Comment: This category mirrors Art Direction...Alice or TKS...

Score: 1) (TIE) THE KING'S SPEECH and The Social Network, 3) Inception, 4) 127 HOURS, 5) How to Train Your Dragon.
Comment: Very close between TKS and TSN and an Inception win here wouldn't surprise either.

Song 1) Toy Story 3, 2) Tangled, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) Country Strong.
Comment: TS3 is likely, but not a lock to win this. Actually, this might be the most tightly bunched category from top to bottom out of the 21 major categories.

Sound Editing: 1) Inception, 2) True Grit, 3) Toy Story 3, 4) Tron: Legacy, 5) Unstoppable.
Comment: Inception has this locked up.

Sound Mixing: 1) Inception, 2) The Social Network, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) True Grit, 5) Salt.
Comment: Again, Inception is the prohibitive favorite.

Visual Effects: 1) Inception, 2) Alice in Wonderland, 3) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, 4) Hereafter, 5) Iron Man 2
Comment: Inception in a walk.

Makeup: 1) The Wolfman, 2) THE WAY BACK, 3) Barney's Version.
Comment: Wolfman has a substantial edge here.

Sooooo, if the Clearinghouse is 100 % accurate (Ha!)...This is the what the Oscar winning
breakdown would be on Feb. 27th:

The King's Speech wins 5 or 6 depending on Score ( and could get a 7th for Costume).

Inception wins 3.

The Social Network wins 2 or 3 (also depending on Score and could steal a 3rd or 4th if Fincher snags the Directing prize).

The Fighter and Toy Story 3 win 2 apiece.

And one Oscar each for: True Grit, Incendies, Inside Job, Alice in Wonderland, The Wolfman, and Black Swan.

Categories that are fluid: Director, Supporting Actress, Art Direction, Costume, Film Editing, Score, Song, Documentary and Foreign Film.

More next week...

The OC/How the Oscar Race Evolved

The Telluride Film Festival along with Toronto and Venice have become the unofficial start to the Oscar season each year. Consequently, the first serious attempts at Oscar prediction occur as those festivals come to an end in September.

In today's post we take a look back at what we thought would happen and contrast that with how it all came out when the nominations were announced last week. The Clearinghouse first was up on Sept. 26. And on that day, this is what we thought:

Best Picture: Already the field was pretty well established. 9 of the 10 of the eventual Best Pic nominees were on the list. Mike Leigh's "Another Year" was the film in the 7th position that eventually gave way to "Winter's Bone." "Bone"was lurking" as the 14th film on the list.

Best Director: Again, Mike Leigh and "Another Year" was on this list ( at #2) riding a wave of positive critical response that had begun with its presentation at Cannes. And Danny Boyle's "127 Hours" was at #3. But Leigh and Boyle were supplanted by The Coen Brothers for "True Grit" (who are also popularly believed to have supplanted "Inception's" Christopher Nolan at the last minute) and by Darren Aronofsky foe "Black Swan." Both The Coens and Aronofsky were lurking in the next five at #9 and #8 respectively.

Best Actress: 3 actual nominees were on the first attempt-Bening and Portman were 1-2 and Kidman was at #4. Also on that first list-Lesley Manville and Sally Hawkins. Manville and Hawkins were replaced by the actual nominations of Jennifer Lawrence and Michelle Williams. On that first pass at prediction Lawrence was at #6 and Williams was at #8.

Best Actor: 4 of the 5 eventual nominees were on the first stab at prognostication. Firth, Franco, Eisenberg, and Bridges. Robert Duvall and Mark Wahlburg (who was tied with Bridges for the #5 spot) ended up on the outside looking in. They were replaced by Javier Bardem for "Biutiful." Bardem is believed to have bumped Duvall out at the very end of the nominating process. Bardem began on 9/26 at the # 8 spot.

Best Supporting Actress: The original guess had 3 of the 5 eventual nominees. Leo, Bonham Carter and Weaver. Also on that original list were Miranda Richardson for "Made in Dagenham" and Dianne Weist for Rabbit Hole. The other two actually nominated, of course, were Hailee Steinfeld and Amy Adams. Steinfeld was first set at the #6 spot while Adams began at #9.

Best Supporting Actor: Again a 3 of 5 category as the original prediction included actual nominees Bale, Rush and Ruffalo. Also included were Andrew Garfield and Justin Timberlake from "The Social Network." Actual nominees John Hawkes ("Winter's Bone') and Jeremy Renner ("The Town") were nowhere on the original list of ten possible nominees in what was the worst category for early prediction.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 3 for 5. The first guess got "The Social Network," "Toy Story 3, " and "Winter's Bone." "Rabbit Hole" and "Love and Other Drugs" which were on that first list failed to secure nominations. "127 Hours" (at #6 originally) and "True Grit" (at #9 originally) did.

Best Original Screenplay: 5 for 5. The first prediction had them all right..."Kids," King's," "Inception," "Another Year," and "The Fighter" were all listed as nominees on the very first chart.

For the Big 8 Categories the original Clearinghouse was 33 of 45 and of the 12 that were missing 10 were considered "possible." The only total whiffs were John Hawkes and Jeremy Renner in Supporting Actor.

Finally...the Oscar Finals Ballots went in the mail on Wednesday. The consensus at this moment would be the following:

Picture: "The King's Speech"

Director: Tom Hooper/King's (although there is still a chunk of support for the notion that Fincher could still win the thing)

Actress: Natalie Portman/Swan(still some feel for Annette Bening)

Actor: Colin Firth/TKS...not much doubt

Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo/Fighter is in the lead but Hailee Steinfeld is still regarded as having a chance.
Supporting Actor: Christian Bale/Fighter...again, not much doubt

Adapted Screenplay: Sorkin/"The Social Network" a prohibitive favorite.

Original Screenplay: David Seidler/"The King's Speech" also a prohibitive favorite.

Oscar 83 and Telluride Film #37/The Oscar Clearinghouse

Telluride #37 with 32 Oscar nominations. The Clearinghouse gets 85 out 105 in 21 categories.

TFF #37 films with Oscar Noms:

THE KING'S SPEECH-12

127 HOURS-6

BLACK SWAN-5

BIUTIFUL-2

ANOTHER YEAR-1

THE WAY BACK-1

INSIDE JOB-1

INCENDIES-1

THE ILLUSIONIST-1

POSTER GIRL-1

GOD OF LOVE-1

THE KING'S SPEECH over-performed getting 12 nominations instead of the anticipated 9. True Grit hit its expected 10. BLACK SWAN (5 instead of the expected 7), 127 HOURS (6 instead of 7)and Inception (8 instead of 10) underperformed.

By category, here's how The Clearinghouse did.

Picture: Swan, Fighter, Inception, Kids, TKS, 127, TSN, TS3, True and Winter's. Clearinghouse goes 10 for 10. One of 4 categories that we hit 100% .

Director: 4 of 5. Aronofsky, Russell, Hooper, Fincher and The Coens. Coens a small surprise. Nolan's exclusion a BIG SURPRISE. Though we had The Coens as the first likely suspects if one of the predicted five didn't make the cut. I just never thought it would be Nolan that got the short end.

Actress: 5 of 5. Bening, Kidman, Lawrence, Portman, Williams. No Manville, though...sad face.

Actor: 4 of 5. Bardem, Bridges, Eisenberg, Firth, and Franco. Bardem in and Duvall out...again, we had Bardem as a possible spoiler.

Supporting Actress: 4 0f 5. Adams, Bonham Carter, Leo, Steinfeld, Weaver. In the last spot-Weaver. We had it as a dead heat with Mila Kunis.

Supporting Actor: 4 of 5. Bale, Hawkes, Renner, Ruffalo, and Rush. Hawkes in for Garfield. Yes!

Adapted Screenplay: 5 of 5. 127, TSN, TS3, True, Winter's

Original Screenplay: 5 of 5. Another Year (yea!), Fighter, Inception, Kids, TKS. A notoriously difficult pair of categories and The Clearinghouse got all 10 writing nominees. A little smug.

Animated: 3 of 3. Dragon, TS3 and THE ILLUSIONIST. Again...smug.

Foreign: 4 of 5. Biutiful, Dogtooth, In a Better World, Incendies, Outside the Law. Law in and S. Africa's "Life, Above All" out.

Doc: 2 of 5. One of our two worst categories. Exit thru the Gift Shop, Gasland, INSIDE JOB, Resterpo, Waste Land. The Big stunner is the absence of "Waiting for Superman."

Art Direction: 4 of 5. Alice, Harry, Inception, TKS, True. Harry for "Shutter Island"..though not really a surprise.

Cinematography: 4 of 5. Swan, Inception, TKS, TSN, True. TKS for 127 Hours...yes, that's a surprise.

Costume: 4 of 5. Alice, I am Love, TKS, Tempest, True. I am Love in for Black Swan...yes, also a surprise. One of the biggest of the day.

Film Editing: 4 of 5. Swan, Fighter, TKS, 127, TSN. King's Speech in, Inception out. A stunner and one of four or five "signs" that The King's Speech is actually the favorite to win Best Picture now. More on the "signs" below.

Makeup: 1 of 3. Barney's Version, The Way Back, The Wolfman. Barney and way Back in Alice and True Grit out. The OC was not good here, but also not awful. We had Barney and The Way Back listed as possible spoilers.

Original Score: 4 of 5. Dragon, Inception, TKS, 127, TSN. 127 Hours in and Never Let Me Go out. We did have 127 Hours listed as a possible.

Original Song: 3 of 4. Country Strong, Tangled, 127, TS3. Weirdly only 4 nominees. Country Strong in and Burlesque and Superman out.

Sound Edit: 4 of 5. Inception, TS3, Tron, True, Unstoppable. Unstop in for 127. We had Unstop as a possible.

Sound Mix: 3 of 5. Inception, TKS, Salt, TSN, True. Salt and King's in for Swan and Tron. Salt is a stunner and another "sign" that TKS may be the frontrunner.

Visual FX: 4 of 5. Alice, Harry, Hereafter, Inception, Iron Man 2. Hereafter stuns Tron.

Signs that THE KING'S SPEECH might be your frontrunner...Most nominations, Nominated for Film Editing (almost always a necessity for a film to win Best Picture is an accompanying nomination in Editing), Cinematography and SOUND MIXING??? Really????

Conventional (quick) wisdom is that The King's Speech wins Best Picture and several others and The Social Network's Fincher wins director.

Coming soon to the OC...we handicap the field of nominees for your Oscar winners.

The Oscar Clearinghouse #7 Re-Post. Telluride Film and the 83rd Academy Awards

Because of some issues I have decided to re-post the Clearinghouse from this morning.

It's been four and a half months since the Telluride Film Festival concluded and after the long awards season march the Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning. Here is the latest compilation of Oscar prognosticator's wisdom with our focus on the films that played as a part of the Telluride Film Festival in 2010. Categories have been limited to the appropriate number of nominees and three possible spoilers. TFF #37 films listed in CAPS AND BOLD.

Information collated from: Rope of Silicon, Incontention.com, Scott Feinberg, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Film Misery, The Gurus of Gold from Movie City News, The Awards Circuit and Film Experience.

Best Picture: 8 films seem like locks: THE KING'S SPEECH, BLACK SWAN, The Social Network, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, Inception and True Grit. 127 HOURS has actually solidified its chances in the last couple of weeks making it a probable nominee. It looks like that the last spot is between The Town and Winter's Bone with Bone having the inside track. The only other films with a prayer of cracking the Ten Nominees are Blue Valentine and ANOTHER YEAR, but it's the slimmest of chances.
If I had a ballot: See my top ten below. Suffice it to say (as I have been) that "The Social Network," "Toy Story 3," and "The Kids Are All Right" are over-rated.

Best Director: David Fincher/The Social Network and David O. Russell/The Fighter appear to be locks with TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN and Christopher Nolan/Inception looking very much like the other three nominees. If there is a surprise it would be (In order of likelihood) The Coen Brothers/True Grit, DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS or MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR.
If I had a ballot: Coens in and Russell OR Fincher out.

Best Actress: NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN and Annette Bening/The Kids Are All Right have been locks for months. Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone appears to have moved into that status as of the last two weeks. The other two spots look to go Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole and Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine. Three women who could intrude (in order of their chances) are: LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, Julianne Moore/The Kids Are All Right or a late charging Hilary Swank/Conviction.
If I had a ballot: Don't know that I'd do much different here...maybe move Manville to supporting, but that category is already filled with great work.

Best Actor: Locks: COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS. Very Likely the other three are: Robert Duvall/Get Low, Jeff Bridges/True Grit and Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network. Realistically, if a surprise occurs it would be Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL or Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter.
If I had a ballot: Eisenberg out for Leonardo DiCaprio in "Shutter Island."

Supporting Actress: (Still the most intriguing category) Two locks are Melissa Leo/The Fighter and HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH. Near locks are Amy Adams/The Fighter and Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit (Steinfeld would be a lock, but she's getting shaded into the Best Actress category by a couple of Oscar predictors...Hmmmm). And the last spot is an arm wrestling match between Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom and MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN (my bet is on Kunis). Only two other women might have a shot at a nomination: Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham and Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole.
If I had a ballot: I'm OK here if Kunis gets in.

Supporting Actor: Three men seem to have nominations assured. They are Christian Bale/The Fighter, GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH and Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are All Right. The last two spots look to be comfortably in the hands of Andrew Garfield/The Social Network and Jeremy Renner/The Town. Those that might sneak in are: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction or Matt Damon/True Grit.
If I had a ballot: Hawkes in for Renner, Ruffalo or Garfield. And I would add that I'd be voting for both Ed Harris and Colin Farrell from THE WAY BACK.

Adapted Screenplay: Locks: Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network, Michael Arndt/Toy Story 3, Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini/Winter's Bone. The other two nominees would appear to be Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit and DANNY BOYLE & SIMON BEAUFOY/127 HOURS. The three most likely spoilers are: Ben Affleck, Peter Craig & Aaron Stockard/The Town. David Lindsay-Abaire/Rabbit Hole and Roman Polanski & Robert Harris/The Ghost Writer.
If I had a ballot: Let this category stand.

Original Screenplay: Locks are: DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH, Christopher Nolan/Inception and Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg/The Kids Are All Right. Also likely nominees are: Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson/The Fighter and MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR. Three which could surprise are: Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curits & Cami Delavigne/Blue Valentine, MARK HEYMAN, ANDRES HEINZ & JOHN J. MC LAUGHLIN/BLACK SWAN, or Chris Provenzano & C. Gaby Mitchell/Get Low. Personally, I think Black Swan gets in instead of The Fighter and if I had a ballot I would certainly vote it in over "The Kids Are All Right."

Animated Film: Locks: Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon. Probable: THE ILLUSIONIST. Possible spoilers: Tangled, Despicable Me, Megamind. (Parenthetical comment: What a switch in the last 2 weeks as "The Illusionist" has surged ahead of "Tangled" to look like the third nominee. 14 days ago, "Tangled" looked like a cinch.)

Foreign Film: Locks: Nada. Probable: INCENDIES/CANADA, BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, In a Better World/Denmark, Life, Above All/South Africa and Dogtooth/Greece. Possible spoilers...any of the other 4 films still alive after the Academy cut the foreign list down to 9. (from Japan, Sweden, Spain and Algeria). The stunner was the exclusion of France's "OF GODS AND MEN."
Documentary: Only Lock: INSIDE JOB. Other probable nominees: Waiting for Superman, The Tillman Story, Resterpo and Client 9. Possible spoilers: The Waste Land, Exit Through the Gift Shop and The Lottery.

Film Editing: Locks: Inception, The Social Network, The Fighter. Likely: BLACK SWAN and 127 HOURS. Could Slide in: THE KING'S SPEECH, Shutter Island, True Grit.

Cinematography: Locks: Inception and True Grit. Likely: BLACK SWAN, The Social Network and 127 HOURS. Spoilers: Shutter Island, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE KING'S SPEECH.

Art Direction: Locks: Alice in Wonderland, Inception and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: Shutter Island and True Grit. Possible spoilers: Tron:Legacy and Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE WAY BACK.

Original Score: Locks: Inception is the only lock in this category. Probable nominees are: The Social Network, How to Train Your Dragon, THE KING'S SPEECH and NEVER LET ME GO. Possible spoilers: 127 HOURS, The Ghost Writer and True Grit.

Original Song: Locks: "I See the Light"/Tangled, "Shine"/Waiting for Superman, "We Belong Together"/Toy Story 3, and "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me"/Burlesque. The other likely nominee is "IF I RISE"/127 HOURS. Possible spoilers: "Coming Home"/Country Strong, "Despicable Me"/Despicable Me or "CHASON ILLUSIONIST"/THE ILLUSIONIST.

Costuming: Locks: Alice in Wonderland and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Tempest. Spoilers: Burlesque, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, Made in Dagenham.

Sound Editing: Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: 127 HOURS, Tron:Legacy, True Grit and Toy Story 3. Potential spoilers: How to Train Your Dragon, Iron Man 2 or Unstoppable.

Sound Mixing: Again, Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Social Network and Tron:Legacy. Potential surprises: Unstoppable, Iron Man 2 or Toy Story 3.

Makeup (3 noms only): Locks: Alice in Wonderland and The Wolfman. Other likely nominee: True Grit. Spoilers: THE WAY BACK, Jonah Hex, Barney's Version.

Visual Effects: Locks: Inception and Tron:Legacy. Likely nominees: Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, and Iron Man 2. Potential spoilers: Scott Pilgrim or Hereafter.

And, of course, there will be nominations for short form live action, animation and documentary.

The Breakdown: If the Clearinghouse nails it Telluride #37 films earn 30 nominations with 11 more potentially in the mix as spoilers.

The most nominated film(s) will be (according to The Clearinghouse): True Grit and Inception with 10 each (Grit is in play in four other categories and so could end up being the most nominated on its own). The rest of the multiple nominees look like this (with additional possible nominations in parenthesis):
10 nominations: True Grit (4), Inception (0)
9 nominations: THE KING'S SPEECH (2), The Social Network (0)
8 nominations: BLACK SWAN (2)
7 nominations: 127 HOURS (2), The Fighter (1)
4 nominations: The Kids Are All Right (1), Toy Story 3 (1), Alice in Wonderland (0)

Other TFF #37 films earning nominations: ANOTHER YEAR-1, BIUTIFUL-1, INCENDIES-1, NEVER LET ME GO-1, THE ILLUSIONIST-1, INSIDE JOB-1.

And finally, my top ten films for 2010...if I was voting, this would be my Best Picture ballot:
10) The Fighter
9) THE ILLUSIONIST
8) THE WAY BACK
7) Shutter Island
6) 127 HOURS
5) ANOTHER YEAR
4) BLACK SWAN
3) Inception
2) THE KING'S SPEECH
1) True Grit

Back tomorrow with the breakdown and analysis of what the nominations have been....

The Oscar Clearinghouse #7 (Telluride Film)- FINAL Pre-Nomination Edition

It's been four and a half months since the Telluride Film Festival concluded and after the long awards season march the Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning. Here is the latest compilation of Oscar prognosticator's wisdom with our focus on the films that played as a part of the Telluride Film Festival in 2010. Categories have been limited to the appropriate number of nominees and three possible spoilers. TFF #37 films listed in CAPS AND BOLD.

Information collated from: Rope of Silicon, Incontention.com, Scott Feinberg, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Film Misery, The Gurus of Gold from Movie City News, The Awards Circuit and Film Experience.

Best Picture: 8 films seem like locks: THE KING'S SPEECH, BLACK SWAN, The Social Network, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, Inception and True Grit. 127 HOURS has actually solidified its chances in the last couple of weeks making it a probable nominee. It looks like that the last spot is between The Town and Winter's Bone with Bone having the inside track. The only other films with a prayer of cracking the Ten Nominees are Blue Valentine and ANOTHER YEAR, but it's the slimmest of chances.

If I had a ballot: See my top ten below. Suffice it to say (as I have been) that "The Social Network," "Toy Story 3," and "The Kids Are All Right" are over-rated.

Best Director: David Fincher/The Social Network and David O. Russell/The Fighter appear to be locks with TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN and Christopher Nolan/Inception looking very much like the other three nominees. If there is a surprise it would be (In order of likelihood) The Coen Brothers/True Grit, DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS or MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR.

If I had a ballot: Coens in and Russell OR Fincher out.

Best Actress: NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN and Annette Bening/The Kids Are All Right have been locks for months. Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone appears to have moved into that status as of the last two weeks. The other two spots look to go Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole and Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine. Three women who could intrude (in order of their chances) are: LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, Julianne Moore/The Kids Are All Right or a late charging Hilary Swank/Conviction.

If I had a ballot: Don't know that I'd do much different here...maybe move Manville to supporting, but that category is already filled with great work.

Best Actor: Locks: COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS. Very Likely the other three are: Robert Duvall/Get Low, Jeff Bridges/True Grit and Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network. Realistically, if a surprise occurs it would be Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL or Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter.

If I had a ballot: Eisenberg out for Leonardo DiCaprio in "Shutter Island."

Supporting Actress: (Still the most intriguing category) Two locks are Melissa Leo/The Fighter and HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH. Near locks are Amy Adams/The Fighter and Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit (Steinfeld would be a lock, but she's getting shaded into the Best Actress category by a couple of Oscar predictors...Hmmmm). And the last spot is an arm wrestling match between Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom and MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN (my bet is on Kunis). Only two other women might have a shot at a nomination: Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham and Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole.

If I had a ballot: I'm OK here if Kunis gets in.

Supporting Actor: Three men seem to have nominations assured. They are Christian Bale/The Fighter, GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH and Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are All Right. The last two spots look to be comfortably in the hands of Andrew Garfield/The Social Network and Jeremy Renner/The Town. Those that might sneak in are: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction or Matt Damon/True Grit.

If I had a ballot: Hawkes in for Renner, Ruffalo or Garfield. And I would add that I'd be voting for both Ed Harris and Colin Farrell from THE WAY BACK.

Adapted Screenplay: Locks: Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network, Michael Arndt/Toy Story 3, Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini/Winter's Bone. The other two nominees would appear to be Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit and DANNY BOYLE & SIMON BEAUFOY/127 HOURS. The three most likely spoilers are: Ben Affleck, Peter Craig & Aaron Stockard/The Town. David Lindsay-Abaire/Rabbit Hole and Roman Polanski & Robert Harris/The Ghost Writer.

If I had a ballot: Let this category stand.

Original Screenplay: Locks are: DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH, Christopher Nolan/Inception and Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg/The Kids Are All Right. Also likely nominees are: Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson/The Fighter and MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR. Three which could surprise are: Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curits & Cami Delavigne/Blue Valentine, MARK HEYMAN, ANDRES HEINZ & JOHN J. MC LAUGHLIN/BLACK SWAN, or Chris Provenzano & C. Gaby Mitchell/Get Low. Personally, I think Black Swan gets in instead of The Fighter and if I had a ballot I would certainly vote it in over "The Kids Are All Right."

Animated Film: Locks: Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon. Probable: THE ILLUSIONIST. Possible spoilers: Tangled, Despicable Me, Megamind. (Parenthetical comment: What a switch in the last 2 weeks as "The Illusionist" has surged ahead of "Tangled" to look like the third nominee. 14 days ago, "Tangled" looked like a cinch.)

Foreign Film: Locks: Nada. Probable: INCENDIES/CANADA, BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, In a Better World/Denmark, Life, Above All/South Africa and Dogtooth/Greece. Possible spoilers...any of the other 4 films still alive after the Academy cut the foreign list down to 9. (from Japan, Sweden, Spain and Algeria). The stunner was the exclusion of France's "OF GODS AND MEN."

Documentary: Only Lock: INSIDE JOB. Other probable nominees: Waiting for Superman, The Tillman Story, Resterpo and Client 9. Possible spoilers: The Waste Land, Exit Through the Gift Shop and The Lottery.

Film Editing: Locks: Inception, The Social Network, The Fighter. Likely: BLACK SWAN and 127 HOURS. Could Slide in: THE KING'S SPEECH, Shutter Island, True Grit.

Cinematography: Locks: Inception and True Grit. Likely: BLACK SWAN, The Social Network and 127 HOURS. Spoilers: Shutter Island, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE KING'S SPEECH.

Art Direction: Locks: Alice in Wonderland, Inception and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: Shutter Island and True Grit. Possible spoilers: Tron:Legacy and Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE WAY BACK.

Original Score: Locks: Inception is the only lock in this category. Probable nominees are: The Social Network, How to Train Your Dragon, THE KING'S SPEECH and NEVER LET ME GO. Possible spoilers: 127 HOURS, The Ghost Writer and True Grit.

Original Song: Locks: "I See the Light"/Tangled, "Shine"/Waiting for Superman, "We Belong Together"/Toy Story 3, and "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me"/Burlesque. The other likely nominee is "IF I RISE"/127 HOURS. Possible spoilers: "Coming Home"/Country Strong, "Despicable Me"/Despicable Me or "CHASON ILLUSIONIST"/THE ILLUSIONIST.

Costuming: Locks: Alice in Wonderland and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Tempest. Spoilers: Burlesque, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, Made in Dagenham.

Sound Editing: Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: 127 HOURS, Tron:Legacy, True Grit and Toy Story 3. Potential spoilers: How to Train Your Dragon, Iron Man 2 or Unstoppable.

Sound Mixing: Again, Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Social Network and Tron:Legacy. Potential surprises: Unstoppable, Iron Man 2 or Toy Story 3.

Makeup (3 noms only): Locks: Alice in Wonderland and The Wolfman. Other likely nominee: True Grit. Spoilers: THE WAY BACK, Jonah Hex, Barney's Version.

Visual Effects: Locks: Inception and Tron:Legacy. Likely nominees: Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, and Iron Man 2. Potential spoilers: Scott Pilgrim or Hereafter.

And, of course, there will be nominations for short form live action, animation and documentary.

The Breakdown: If the Clearinghouse nails it Telluride #37 films earn 30 nominations with 11 more potentially in the mix as spoilers.

The most nominated film(s) will be (according to The Clearinghouse): True Grit and Inception with 10 each (Grit is in play in four other categories and so could end up being the most nominated on its own). The rest of the multiple nominees look like this (with additional possible nominations in parenthesis):

10 nominations: True Grit (4), Inception (0)

9 nominations: THE KING'S SPEECH (2), The Social Network (0)

8 nominations: BLACK SWAN (2)

7 nominations: 127 HOURS (2), The Fighter (1)

4 nominations: The Kids Are All Right (1), Toy Story 3 (1), Alice in Wonderland (0)

Other TFF #37 films earning nominations: ANOTHER YEAR-1, BIUTIFUL-1, INCENDIES-1, NEVER LET ME GO-1, THE ILLUSIONIST-1, INSIDE JOB-1.

And finally, my top ten films for 2010...if I was voting, this would be my Best Picture ballot:

10) The Fighter

9) THE ILLUSIONIST

8) THE WAY BACK

7) Shutter Island

6) 127 HOURS

5) ANOTHER YEAR

4) BLACK SWAN

3) Inception

2) THE KING'S SPEECH

1) True Grit

Back tomorrow with the breakdown and analysis of what the nominations have been....

Nominations are Coming! Telluride Film and The Oscar Clearinghouse

Will Geoffrey Rush (seen here outside the Chuck Jones Theater at 2010's Telluride Film Festival) wake up Tuesday morning to an Oscar nomination? The signs say...Yes!

Coming Monday on Michael's Telluride Film Blog...final Oscar nomination predictions from The Oscar Clearinghouse. Will TFF#37 films earn 30 or more noms? We find out Tuesday morning. The announcement is scheduled to take place at 8:30 am Eastern, 7:30 am Central...5:30 am on the west coast.

Telluride Film #37 and Foreign Films/The Oscar Clearinghouse

The Academy has announced its short list of 9 foreign films that are still in contention for the final five nominations that will be announced on Jan. 25.

Here are the nine (courtesy of Incontention.com) with TFF #37 films in Bold and Large:

Algeria (“Outside the Law”)
Canada (“Incendies”)
Denmark (“In a Better World”)
Greece (“Dogtooth”)
Japan (“Confessions”)
Mexico (“Biutiful”)
South Africa (“Life Above All”)
Spain (“Even the Rain”)
Sweden (“Simple Simon”)

A real surprise among Oscar predictors this morning was the absence of France's "of Gods and Men" which also played as part of this year's festival.

Brits, Telluride Film #37 and The OC

The British version of the Academy (BRITISH ACADEMY OF FILM AND TELEVISION ARTS or BAFTA) nominations were announced early this morning. TFF #37 was strongly represented. Here are their nominations with Telluride films in Bold and Large

(Thanks to Incontention.com)

Best Film: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “The Social Network” “True Grit”

Best British Film: “Another Year” “Four Lions” “The King’s Speech” “Made In Dagenham” “127 Hours”

Best Director: Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan” Christopher Nolan, “Inception” Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech” Danny Boyle, “127 Hours” David Fincher, “The Social Network”

Best Actor: Javier Bardem, “Biutiful” Jeff Bridges, “True Grit” Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network” Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech” James Franco, “127 Hours”

Best Actress: Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right” Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right” Natalie Portman, “Black Swan” Noomi Rapace, “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”

Best Supporting Actor: Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network” Christian Bale, “The Fighter” Pete Postlethwaite, “The Town” Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech” Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, “The Fighter” Barbara Hershey, “Black Swan” Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech” Lesley Manville, “Another Year” Miranda Richardson, “Made In Dagenham”

Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” “127 Hours” “The Social Network” “Toy Story 3″ “True Grit”

Best Original Screenplay: “Black Swan” “The Fighter” “Inception” “The Kids Are All Right” “The King’s Speech”

Best Foreign Language Film: “Biutiful” “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” “I Am Love” “Of Gods and Men” “The Secret In Their Eyes”

Best Animated Film: “Despicable Me” “How To Train Your Dragon” “Toy Story 3″

Best Cinematography: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours” “True Grit”

Best Production Design: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “True Grit”

Best Costume Design: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “The King’s Speech” “Made In Dagenham” “True Grit”

Best Editing: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours” “The Social Network”

Best Make Up & Hair: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1″ “The King’s Speech” “Made In Dagenham”

Best Original Music: “Alice In Wonderland” “How To Train Your Dragon” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours”

Best Sound: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours” “True Grit”

Best Special Visual Effects: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1″ “Inception” “Toy Story 3″

Rising Star Award: Gemma Arterton Andrew Garfield Tom Hardy Aaron Johnson Emma Stone

Carl Foreman Award: (best debut by a British writer, director or producer)Clio Barnard, “The Arbor” Banksy and Jaime D’Cruz, “Exit Through the Gift Shop” Chris Morris, “Four Lions” Gareth Edwards, “Monsters” Nick Whitfield, “Skeletons”

The Breakdown:

THE KING'S SPEECH-14

BLACK SWAN-12

Inception-9

127 HOURS and True Grit-8

The Social Network-6

Kids Are All Right and Made in Dagenham-4

The Fighter and Girl with the Dragon Tattoo-3

ANOTHER YEAR and BIUTIFUL-2

OF GODS AND MEN-1

Telluride rakes 39 BAFTA nominations.

Comment: Maybe I am an anglophile, because this seems a lot more accurate to me than the conventional wisdom here in the States concerning the likely dominance of The Social Network.

A couple of interesting notes...Lesley Manville (Another Year) is nominated in Supporting Actress...which is where she should be instead of lead, which is where Oscar prognosticators have been putting her. Similarly, Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) is nominated as a Lead rather than Supporting which is also opposite of where she's being listed here in the US of A.

Barbara Hershey gets a BAFTA Supporting nomination for "Black Swan" instead of Mila Kunis who has had the majority of Oscar buzz in this country.

"Tamara Drewe's" Gemma Arterton and "Never Let Me Go's" Andrew Garfield are nominated as "Rising Stars."

The BAFTA Awards will be revealed Feb. 13.

Tellurdie Film Festival/The Oscar Clearinghouse-Tech and More

Less than three weeks until Oscar nominations are announced and here's a look at the trends in the Technical/Doc/Foreign/Animated categories....We'll forgo the Short Subject categories (Live, Animated, Doc)...TFF #37 in CAPS AND BOLD

ART DIRECTION: 1) Inception, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Alice in Wonderland, 4) Shutter Island, 5) True Grit

Players: Tron:Legacy, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows

CINEMATOGRAPHY: 1) True Grit, 2) Inception, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) BLACK SWAN, 5) Shutter Island

Players: THE WAY BACK, The Social Network

Notes: Roger Deakins...please.

COSTUME: 1) Alice in Wonderland, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) The Tempest, 4) True Grit, 5) Burlesque

Players: Get Low, Made in Dagenham

FILM EDITING: 1) The Social Network, 2) Inception, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) BLACK SWAN, 5) True Grit

Players: The Fighter

MAKEUP: 1) Alice in Wonderland, 2) The Wolfman, 3) BLACK SWAN

ORIGINAL SCORE: 1) Inception, 2) How to Train Your Dragon, 3) NEVER LET ME GO, 4) THE KING'S SPEECH, 5) True Grit

Players: The Ghost Writer

ORIGINAL SONG: 1) Tangled, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) Waiting for Superman, 4) Burlesque, 5) 127 HOURS

Player: Country Strong

SOUND EDITING: 1) Inception, 2) 127 HOURS, 3) Tron:Legacy, 4) Toy Story 3, 5) How to Train Your Dragon

Players: Iran Man 2, Unstoppable

SOUND MIXING: 1) Inception, 2) True Grit, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) Tron:Legacy, 5) Unstoppable

Players: Iron Man 2, BLACK SWAN, Toy Story 3

VISUAL EFFECTS: 1) Inception, 2) Tron:Legacy, 3) Iron Man 2, 4) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, 5) Alice in Wonderland

ANIMATED FEATURE: 1) Toy Story 3, 2) How to Train Your Dragon, 3) Tangled

Players: THE ILLUSIONIST, Despicable Me

DOCUMENTARY: 1) INSIDE JOB, 2) Waiting for Superman, 3) The Tillman Story, 4) Wasteland, 5) Restrepo

Players: Exit Through the Gift Shop, Gasland

FOREIGN FILM: 1) Outside the Law/Algeria, 2) OF GODS AND MEN/FRANCE, 3) INCENDIES/CANADA, 4) Life Above All/South Africa,5) Son of Babylon/Iraq

Players: BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, In a Better World/Denmark

Notes:

If the above were 100% accurate TFF #37 will have 30 nominations and 13 other possibles (including the Big 8 categories).

Breakdown by TFF #37:

The King's Speech and 127 Hours 9 noms and 0 possibles

Black Swan 6 noms and 4 possibles

Another Year 2 noms and 2 possible

Inside Job 1 nom

Never Let Me Go 1 nom

The Way Back 4 possibles

Biutiful 2 possibles

The Illusionist 1 possible

Foreign Films 2 noms (Of Gods and Men and Incendies) and 1 possible (Biutiful)

Th Clearinghouse says that the films with the most nominations would be (if the nominations were announced today and irrespective of TFF #37):

1) True Grit 10 (with another possible)

2) Inception 10

3) THE KING'S SPEECH 9

3) 127 HOURS 9

5) BLACK SWAN 6 (with 4 more possible)

6) The Social Network 6 (with another possible)

7) Toy Story 3 5 (with another possible)

8) The Fighter 4 (with 3 more possible)

9) The Kids Are All Right 4 (with 2 more possible)

10) Winter's Bone 3 (with 2 more possible)

Others with 4 or more possibles:

THE WAY BACK, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole, Get Low, Alice in Wonderland, Tron: Legacy, How to Train Your Dragon...Honorable Mention: Shutter Island and The Town.

Next Week...an updated Big 8 Categories.

Sources: InContention.com, Film Misery, The Awards Circuit

News from the OC-Goodbye 2010

ThePlaylist ThePlaylist
In Theaters: 'Blue Valentine,' 'Another Year,' 'Biutiful,' 'The Way Back' http://dlvr.it/CQzg3

All but "Blue Valentine" palyed as a part of TFF #37.

Also, we're in Telluride for New Year's. Looking forward to the celebration tonight at the New Sheridan and on Colorado Ave. in front of the courthouse. But it is going to be very, very COLD. 5 to 10 below zero!!!

Reportedly celebs in town include Justin Timberlake, Mark Wahlberg and Jerry Seinfeld.

Happy New Year everyone!

The Oscar Clearinghouse #4

"The Fighter" has come out swinging...

It helps when people have actually seen your film. David O. Russell's "The Fighter" featuring Mark Wahlburg, Christian Bale, Melissa Leo and Amy Adams has stormed into contention after press screenings were generally positive. Also warming up some over the last 4 weeks..."The Town," "Winter's Bone" (which is likely to get more boosts from its success at the Gotham Awards and Independent Spirit Nominations) and "Get Low." Losing some steam..."True Grit" (although I really expect that to change in the next week or so as screenings have occurred and the press embargo for that is supposed to end tomorrow...) and "Another Year" (which is too bad, because I really liked "Another Year" a lot).

Here's the breakdown on the last day of November using the source material from: Movie City News Gurus of Gold, Awards Daily, Film Misery, InContention.com, Scott Feinberg, Awards Circuit and Film Experience.

TELLURIDE #37 FILMS IN CAPS AND BOLD.

Best Picture: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) Toy Story 3, 5) Inception, 6) The Kids Are All Right, 7) True Grit, 8) The Fighter, 9) BLACK SWAN, 10) Winter's Bone

Close: The Town, THE WAY BACK, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine

Out: Fair Game, Hereafter

Hot: 127 HOURS, The Fighter, The Town

Not: True Grit, ANOTHER YEAR

Thought: Social Network and King's Speech continue to jockey for the top spot despite what I think is still an almost subliminal decline foe Social Network. I continue to think that this category is a four horse race with those two plus True Grit and Inception battling for the prize. Also, finally saw The Kids Are All Right...and it's all right...over-rated, over-hyped, but all right.

Best Director: 1) David Fincher/Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/KING'S SPEECH, 3) Christopher Nolan/Inception, 4) DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, 5) DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN

Close: The Coen Brothers/True Grit, David O. Russell/The Fighter, MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK

Out: Debra Granik/Winter's Bone

Hot: Russell

Not: Weir

Thought: What an ugly category. 7 players for the 5 spots. I still think the Coens get in and Aronofsky will be on the outside looking in.

Best Actress: 1) Anette Bening/Kids Are All Right, 2) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 3) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR

Close: Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Julianne Moore/Kids Are All Right, Anne Hathaway/Love and Other Drugs, Tilda Swinton/I Am Love, Naomi Watts/Fair Game

Out: Diane Lane, Sally Hawkins

Hot: Swinton

Not: Manville...look out. The droop of Another Year's fortunes seems to be dragging her out of the race.

Thought:See above

Best Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Jeff Bridges/True Grit, 3) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 4) Robert Duvall/Get Low, 5) Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine

Close: Jesse Eisenberg/Social Network, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter, Leonardo DiCaprio/Shutter Island, Pau Giamatti/Barney's Version

Out: Sean Penn

Hot: Bridges and DiCaprio

Not: Giamatti

Thought: Bridges continued assault may be a better indicator that True Grit is a serious player as opposed to the movement in the Best Picture category.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2)Diane Weist/Rabbit Hole, 3) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 4) Amy Adams/The Fighter, 5) Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom

Close: Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, Hailey Steinfeld/True Grit, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN, Marion Cotillard/Inception

Out: Kristin Scott Thomas

Hot: Adams and Kunis

Not: Steinfeld

Thought: Nothing shows the jump that The Fighter has made more clearly than the leap the Amy Adams has enjoyed in the last couple of weeks.

Best Supporting Actor: 1) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 2) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are All Right, 4) Andrew Garfield/The Social Network, 5) ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK

Close: Sam Rockwell/Conviction, Justin Timberlake/Social Network, Matt Damon/True Grit, Jeremy Renner/The Town, Bill Murray/Get Low

Out: Josh Brolin

Hot: Garfield, Damon

Not: Rockwell

Thought: Bale and Rush continue to duke it out...

Adapted Screenplay: 1) The Social Network, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) Winter's Bone, 5) True Grit

Close: Rabbit Hole, The Town, THE WAY BACK, How to Train Your Dragon, The Ghost Writer

Out: Love and Other Drugs

Original Screenplay: 1) THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) The Kids Are All Right, 3) ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Inception, 5) Blue Valentine

Close: The Fighter, BLACK SWAN, Get Low, Made in Dagenham, Somewhere

Out: How Do You Know

Hot: Get Low

Thought: Maybe Another Year's only nomination.

Telluride films are losing some ground as they sit at this counting with 16 predicted nominations in the Big Eight categories and 8 other possible nominations...

NOMS:

THE KING'S SPEECH-6,

The Fighter, Kids Are All Right, The Social Network, 127 HOURS-4,

Inception, True Grit, BLACK SWAN, Winter's Bone-3

Toy Story3, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine-2

NOMS + POSSIBLES

The Fighter-7

THE KING'S SPEECH, The Social Network, The Kids Are All Right, True Grit-6

BLACK SWAN-5

127 HOURS, Inception, THE WAY BACK, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine, Get Low-4

And later this week...The National Board of Review releases its list of the Best Films of 2010...

The OC #2

Post-Toronto and half way through October, here is the updated Oscar Clearinghouse.

This issue uses the source material from: The Envelope, Awards Daily, In Contention, Gurus of Gold, Scott Feinberg, CinemaSight, The Film Experience and Film Misery

Telluride Pics in CAPS AND BOLD.

Best Picture: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Toy Story 3 4, ) Inception, 5) True Grit, 6) 127 HOURS, 7) The Kids Are All Right, 8) ANOTHER YEAR, 9) The Fighter, 10) BLACK SWAN.

The Next Five: Hereafter, Fair Game, Winter's Bone, Secretariat and Rabbit Hole.

Dropping Out: Made in Dagenham, The Way Back

HOT: Toy Story 3, True Grit, Secretariat and Rabbit Hole

COLD: 127 Hours, The Kids Are All Right

COMMENT: Man, what a good trailer can do. This list (and several others on the Clearinghouse this time around) shows that True Grit is Red Hot! And one assumes it's a result of the release of its teaser and theatrical trailers...and they are good. Rabbit Hole is finally getting some heat after its generally warm reception at Toronto. I'm going to say right now that the Best Picture race is between four films: Social Network, King's Speech, True Grit and Inception.

Best Director: 1) David Fincher/Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/KING'S SPEECH, 3) DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, 4) MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, 5) Christopher Nolan/Inception.

The Next Five: Coens/True Grit, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right, David O. Russell/The Fighter, DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN, Doug Liman/Fair Game

Dropping Out: John Cameron Mitchell/Rabbit Hole, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK

Hot: Coens

Cold: Russell

Comment: I think Boyle and Leigh are shaky in this category and that Fincher, Hooper and Nolan are probable locks even this far out. I'd almost bet money on the Coens getting a nomination if True Grit is half as good as I think it's going to be. So, either Leigh or Boyle would be the one's to suffer.

Best Actress: 1) Annette Bening/Kids Are All Right, 2) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 3) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone

Next Five: Julianne Moore/Kids, Anne Hathaway/Love and Other Drugs, Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Naomi Watts/Fair Game, Sally Hawkins/Dagenham

Dropping Off: None

Hot: Julianne Moore

Cold: Hawkins

Comment: A real charge from Moore to snag a second best acting nom for Kids...

Best Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/KING'S SPEECH, 2) Jeff Bridges/True Grit, 3) JAMES FRANCO/127 HRS., 4) Robert Duvall/Get Low, 5) Jesse Eisenberg/Social Network.

Next Five: Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Paul Giamatti/Barney's Version, Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter, Sean Penn/Fair Game.

Dropping Out: None

Hot: Jeff Bridges

Not: Mark Wahlberg

Comment: Bridges is a BIG beneficiary of the burgeoning True Grit surge.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) Diane Weist/Rabbit Hole, 2) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/KING'S SPEECH, 3) Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, 4) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 5) Hailee Stienfeld/True Grit.

Next Five: Elle Fanning/Somewhere, Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom, Amy Adams/ The Fighter, BARBARA HERSHEY/BLACK SWAN, Rebecca Hall/The Town.

Dropping Out: Sissy Spacek

Hot: Diane Weist and Rebecca Hall

Not: Melissa Leo and Jacki Weaver

Comment: Diane Weist has gone from barely in the nominee section all the way to the top of this category after the reception for Rabbit Hole following Toronto.

Best Supporting Actor: 1) GEOFFREY RUSH/KING'S SPEECH, 2) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 3) Mark Ruffalo/Kids Are All Right, 4) Andrew Garfield/The Social Network, 5) ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK.

Next Five: Sam Rockwell/Conviction, Justin Timberlake/The Social Network, James Brolin/True Grit, Matt Damon/True Grit, VINCENT CASSEL/BLACK SWAN.

Dropping Out: Bill Murray and Dustin Hoffman

Hot: Ed Harris and Matt Damon

Not: Well...Murray and Hoffman

Comment: I won't be surprised if both Brolin and Damon continue to move up the list if the True Grit groundswell continues. I also think Rush is the only lock at this point in this category.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 1) The Social Network, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) Winter's Bone, 4) Love and Other Drugs, 5) True Grit

Next Five: Rabbit Hole, THE WAY BACK, 127 HOURS, Miral, The Town.

Dropping Out: How to Train Your Dragon

Hot: True Grit

Not: Rabbit Hole

Comment: True Grit moving like gangbusters in this category too.

Best Original Screenplay: 1) ANOTHER YEAR, 2) The Kids Are All Right, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) Inception, 5) The Fighter

Next Five: BLACK SWAN, Somewhere, And 4 tied at the next spots: THE ILLUSIONIST, How Do You Know, Made in Dagenham, and Hereafter

Dropping Out: Blue Valentine

Hot: BLACK SWAN

Not: Nada

Comment: The only surprise to me here is that King's Speech isn't sitting at the #1 spot.

The Numbers: If the nominations were announced today and these picks were accurate...

Big Eight Noms:

THE KING'S SPEECH 6,

The Social Network 5,

True Grit, Kids Are All Right, ANOTHER YEAR 4,

127 HOURS, Inception, The Fighter 3

Toy Story 3, BLACK SWAN, Winter's Bone, Rabbit Hole 2

Noms and Near Noms added together:

True Grit 7

KING'S SPEECH, Social Network, Kids Are All Right, The Fighter, BLACK SWAN 6

127 HOURS, Fair Game, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole 4

Telluride Noms Total 16 plus another 8 near noms

TFF #37 and Our Crystal Ball

We started this year's countdown and prognostications for TFF #37 back during the week of Mar. 16-23. At that time we listed a couple of dozen possibilities and really focused on 16 of those. Of those initial lists 5 ended up at Telluride: "127 Hours'" "Biutiful'" "Black Swan," "Never Let Me Go," and "Another Year". Some of them got bumped to 2011..."The Descendants," "The Tree of Life," "The Eagle (of the Ninth)." Some were released during the summer: "Chloe," and "Love Ranch." But we're feeling pretty good that we had 5 of Telluride's 24 features on our very first list of possibles.

Prior to Cannes in May, we further underlined "Biutiful" and"Another Year" and we added "Tamara Drewe" and "The Princess of Montpensier." Of course we also highlighted: "On Tour," "Fair Game," "You, My Joy," "Uncle Boonmee," "Blue Valentine," Godard's "Socialism," "You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger," and Aurora." And we overlooked "Poetry," Of Gods and Men" and "Inside Job."

Post Cannes we got "Poetry" and "Of Gods and Men" into the conversation. And despite its non-inclusion at Cannes, we continued to speculate the Julian Schnabel"s "Miral" would be part of the Telluride lineup.

Late July we got "The Way Back" and "The King's Speech on our first speculative list and we began making the transition from speculation to reportage as we tracked down tidbits from various media...including the first hints beyond our own speculation that we might see "Never Let Me Go."

And by the time we got to the middle of August, with Jay A. Fernandez's Hollywood Reporter story, we were getting a really good bead on the TFF #37 playlist.

All in all we feel pretty smug about the quality of our guesswork and information gathering for this year. Of course, we didn't get it all exactly right...we missed some that we might have gotten and included things that never showed....Really, I'd like to know the behind the scenes story on Schnabel's "Miral" because I was 100% convinced we would see it.

Now, as we have for the past couple of years, we will morph this into a clearinghouse for Oscar info and speculation centered on the films that played at Telluride. We'll be up with our first real look at that sometime in the next ten days or so as the dust settles following Toronto's fest. But just as a quick overview...Telluride may have its largest Oscar presence ever this year..."The King's Speech," "Black Swan," "127 Hours," "Inside Job," and others could swell Telluride connected film Oscar nominations past a cumulative total of 30...which would be impressive indeed.

Thanks to those who actually read the blog in the run-up to T-ride this year. If the counts can be believed, the numbers were surprisingly large this year and it looks as if THIS BLOG IS NOW THE MOST REFERENCED BLOG CONCERNING THE TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL...which blows my mind. And that scares me a little.

Hope you continue to drop in over the next few months and then after the Oscars...next spring...we'll start it all up again (actually we've already begun speculation for TFF #38..."The Tree of Life" and Jason Reitman's Diablo Cody penned, "Young Adult").

TFF 37 Post Mortem

Still recovering. It's a looooong drive back to the Oklahoma Panhandle from southwest Colorado.

We had a terrific time in Telluride. I got in 11 films...and , of course, didn't see everything I wanted to see. Still saw some great stuff...and a couple of films I wasn't all that impressed with.

Here's the rundown of the films and a couple of other notes...

"Black Swan"...Portman is terrific. There was a lot of Oscar speculation on her behalf during the weekend...and with good reason. Aronofsky is brash and bold. He's painting with big, broad strokes (no surprise there). The buzz seemed to be fairly strong and largely positive. For me, the film seemed like it was going through the motions for the first two acts...but then Aronofsky really starts playing with the Portman character in terms of reality/surreality...and it gets pretty interesting from that point on. There was also some speculation that it could get into the Best Picture race...but I don't know that it's going to play all that well with older members of the Academy...it's pretty violent and the lesbian sex scene between Portman and Mila Kunis could also curb some voters enthusiasm. ***

"127 Hours"...James Franco is fantastic as Aron Ralston and Danny Boyle is very creative in bringing a really static story to life and doing so in a way so that our attention is always commanded by the screen. Franco seems like a sure Oscar bet...the film was also getting good buzz as a possible Best Picture contender. I thought it was really good, but not great. Franco is very good and Boyle's direction is impressive. That being said, for me...it's no Slumdog and if I heard a knock on it this weekend it was about the gruesomeness of the arm amputation and that stylistically Boyle seemed to use too many of the same tricks that he employed in Slumdog. ***

"Never Let Me Go"...this seemed to be the most polarizing film of the weekend. People in line seemed to either love it or hate it. Oddly, I was somewhere in the middle which was frustrating, because it was pretty high on my list to see. It seemed to me that Romanek aimed for a cool detached telling of the story so as to underscore the control over the lives of the main characters and the inevitable conclusion of their existence. And while that's a valid choice, it also seemed to leach away much of a chance that the actors had many places to go. It also seems to me that that choice makes it a real challenge for the audience to care very much about what happens to these people. Finally, with the exception of Carey Mulligan, I don't think that Andrew Garfield or Keira Knightley have the chops or maturity to do this kind of subtlety and pull it off. And even Mulligan is forced to be pretty one note.**

"Biutiful"...here I seemed to be the odd man out...I'm a moderate fan of Inarritu's previous work. I liked Babel quite a lot. And I like Bardem quite a bit too...and I know that he co-won Best Actor at Cannes for this... but...this just didn't work for me (and I gather that the reviews were pretty split in Cannes). It seemed to me that his film hit every possible cliche in the display of Bardem's suffering till he dies. I thought it telegraphed almost every single plot development and that Bardem was awfully one note in his performance. But, hey, that's just me...most of the rest of the folks I had conversation with thought it was good and that Bardem was fantastic...**

"The King's Speech"...by now, I'm sure that you've heard that this was the biggest buzz coming out of the fest. And I hate to be a "me-tooer"...but this is a really, really good, maybe great film. Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush are stunningly good. Oscar noms for both are going to happen. Helena Bonham Carter also seems to be getting some attention for Supporting Actress...though it's not nearly as showy a role as the two male leads. Tom Hooper's direction is impressive. Expect noms for him and costuming as well as screenplay at a minimum...This is the film that has the heat that Juno, Slumdog and Up in the Air had coming out of Telluride each of the past few years.****

My second favorite film of the weekend was Mike Leigh's "Another Year." I've never been a huge Leigh fan, but this is a fine, fine piece of work. It looks at a year in the lives of an older couple and their orbit of friends and relatives. Jim Broadbent and Ruth Sheen are graceful and lovely as the couple at the center of the story. I understand that it got a really warm reception at Cannes and that a lot of the critic types were surprised it didn't win any prize...I'd like to think it has a shot at one of the ten Best Picture slots and director and screenplay nods as well. Everyone seems to think Lesley Manville will play for a Best Actress nom, although she might more properly be considered Supporting.***1/2

"The Way Back"...Peter Weir's story of a 4000 mile trek of a group escaping from a Soviet gulag in 1940. They walked out. It's stirring, well made, well acted...Beautiful and purportedly shot for only $29 million. Jim Sturgess is the lead and is good. Ed Harris is in support and is really good and Colin Farrell is fantastic. One of the best things he's ever done. After his little turn last year in "Crazy Heart" and this, I'm beginning to think he's turning into a pretty fine actor. Some Oscar buzz for this last weekend...but I think it got really squeezed out of the buzz because of all the hoopla for King's Speech, Black Swan and 127 Hours.***

"The Illusionist"...Sylvain Chomet's follow up to "The Triplets of Belleville"...beautifully done. It was delightful. Often a perfect example of words over rated as method of communication. It's clever, warm, funny and touching. ***1/2

"Tamara Drewe"...a lot of people on line really loved this comedy from Stephen Frears...I liked it, didn't love it. It's a mildly amusing sex comedy and nothing more. Bill Camp steals the movie from Gemma Arterton (as the title character) as an American writer struggling to finish his opus on Thomas Hardy.**1/2

"Tabloid"...Errol Morris' doc about...well...Joyce McKinney and her "love" for a young Mormon in the 1960's that led to charges of kidnapping and rape...her rape of the young man???? Truth IS stranger than fiction...repeatedly. And the film is hysterical in the bargain. Morris continually finds ways to make your jaw drop and to elicit uproarious laughter. Recommended!***

Finally from South Korea.."Poetry" This won the screenplay award at Cannes. It's too long and could use some judicious editing. Jeong-hee Yoon is lovely as the grandmother trying to find some beauty in her existence and dealing with and grandson that is less than stellar.**1/2

Additional notes:I was surprised that Julian Schnabel's "Miral" didn't show. I was sure it would. And people that are a lot smarter than I am about this stuff had said that it would.

I heard that Kelly Reichardt's "Meek's Cutoff" starring Michelle Williams just missed being a part of the festival lineup; that they just ran out of places to put stuff in the program. Too bad, I would have liked to have seen it since the early word is really positive and I really like Michelle Williams.

I also heard good things about "Inside Job'" "Incendies" and "Precious Life."

I'll do a comparative wrap-up of the success of this Blog's prognostications in the next couple of days. Just a quick note: It was pretty good this year!

And finally, I don't think it was 2007 (which, for me, is the measure of the quality of the fest...Juno, Into the Wild, Diving Bell, Persepolis, The Savages, Band's Visit and more)...but it certainly may have been the 2nd best overall of the five that I have attended.

Now, as we have for the past couple of years, this blog will morph into an awards season tracker for the films that played at TFF #37. From the early buzz, it seems that Telluride may play it's biggest role in Oscar night in many a year...maybe its biggest ever.

And as always...I can't wait till next year and TFF 38!