The OC #2

Post-Toronto and half way through October, here is the updated Oscar Clearinghouse.

This issue uses the source material from: The Envelope, Awards Daily, In Contention, Gurus of Gold, Scott Feinberg, CinemaSight, The Film Experience and Film Misery

Telluride Pics in CAPS AND BOLD.

Best Picture: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Toy Story 3 4, ) Inception, 5) True Grit, 6) 127 HOURS, 7) The Kids Are All Right, 8) ANOTHER YEAR, 9) The Fighter, 10) BLACK SWAN.

The Next Five: Hereafter, Fair Game, Winter's Bone, Secretariat and Rabbit Hole.

Dropping Out: Made in Dagenham, The Way Back

HOT: Toy Story 3, True Grit, Secretariat and Rabbit Hole

COLD: 127 Hours, The Kids Are All Right

COMMENT: Man, what a good trailer can do. This list (and several others on the Clearinghouse this time around) shows that True Grit is Red Hot! And one assumes it's a result of the release of its teaser and theatrical trailers...and they are good. Rabbit Hole is finally getting some heat after its generally warm reception at Toronto. I'm going to say right now that the Best Picture race is between four films: Social Network, King's Speech, True Grit and Inception.

Best Director: 1) David Fincher/Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/KING'S SPEECH, 3) DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, 4) MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, 5) Christopher Nolan/Inception.

The Next Five: Coens/True Grit, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right, David O. Russell/The Fighter, DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN, Doug Liman/Fair Game

Dropping Out: John Cameron Mitchell/Rabbit Hole, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK

Hot: Coens

Cold: Russell

Comment: I think Boyle and Leigh are shaky in this category and that Fincher, Hooper and Nolan are probable locks even this far out. I'd almost bet money on the Coens getting a nomination if True Grit is half as good as I think it's going to be. So, either Leigh or Boyle would be the one's to suffer.

Best Actress: 1) Annette Bening/Kids Are All Right, 2) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 3) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone

Next Five: Julianne Moore/Kids, Anne Hathaway/Love and Other Drugs, Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Naomi Watts/Fair Game, Sally Hawkins/Dagenham

Dropping Off: None

Hot: Julianne Moore

Cold: Hawkins

Comment: A real charge from Moore to snag a second best acting nom for Kids...

Best Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/KING'S SPEECH, 2) Jeff Bridges/True Grit, 3) JAMES FRANCO/127 HRS., 4) Robert Duvall/Get Low, 5) Jesse Eisenberg/Social Network.

Next Five: Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Paul Giamatti/Barney's Version, Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter, Sean Penn/Fair Game.

Dropping Out: None

Hot: Jeff Bridges

Not: Mark Wahlberg

Comment: Bridges is a BIG beneficiary of the burgeoning True Grit surge.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) Diane Weist/Rabbit Hole, 2) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/KING'S SPEECH, 3) Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, 4) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 5) Hailee Stienfeld/True Grit.

Next Five: Elle Fanning/Somewhere, Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom, Amy Adams/ The Fighter, BARBARA HERSHEY/BLACK SWAN, Rebecca Hall/The Town.

Dropping Out: Sissy Spacek

Hot: Diane Weist and Rebecca Hall

Not: Melissa Leo and Jacki Weaver

Comment: Diane Weist has gone from barely in the nominee section all the way to the top of this category after the reception for Rabbit Hole following Toronto.

Best Supporting Actor: 1) GEOFFREY RUSH/KING'S SPEECH, 2) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 3) Mark Ruffalo/Kids Are All Right, 4) Andrew Garfield/The Social Network, 5) ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK.

Next Five: Sam Rockwell/Conviction, Justin Timberlake/The Social Network, James Brolin/True Grit, Matt Damon/True Grit, VINCENT CASSEL/BLACK SWAN.

Dropping Out: Bill Murray and Dustin Hoffman

Hot: Ed Harris and Matt Damon

Not: Well...Murray and Hoffman

Comment: I won't be surprised if both Brolin and Damon continue to move up the list if the True Grit groundswell continues. I also think Rush is the only lock at this point in this category.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 1) The Social Network, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) Winter's Bone, 4) Love and Other Drugs, 5) True Grit

Next Five: Rabbit Hole, THE WAY BACK, 127 HOURS, Miral, The Town.

Dropping Out: How to Train Your Dragon

Hot: True Grit

Not: Rabbit Hole

Comment: True Grit moving like gangbusters in this category too.

Best Original Screenplay: 1) ANOTHER YEAR, 2) The Kids Are All Right, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) Inception, 5) The Fighter

Next Five: BLACK SWAN, Somewhere, And 4 tied at the next spots: THE ILLUSIONIST, How Do You Know, Made in Dagenham, and Hereafter

Dropping Out: Blue Valentine

Hot: BLACK SWAN

Not: Nada

Comment: The only surprise to me here is that King's Speech isn't sitting at the #1 spot.

The Numbers: If the nominations were announced today and these picks were accurate...

Big Eight Noms:

THE KING'S SPEECH 6,

The Social Network 5,

True Grit, Kids Are All Right, ANOTHER YEAR 4,

127 HOURS, Inception, The Fighter 3

Toy Story 3, BLACK SWAN, Winter's Bone, Rabbit Hole 2

Noms and Near Noms added together:

True Grit 7

KING'S SPEECH, Social Network, Kids Are All Right, The Fighter, BLACK SWAN 6

127 HOURS, Fair Game, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole 4

Telluride Noms Total 16 plus another 8 near noms